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INNOVATION IN DISASTER RISK REDUCTION APPLYNG GLOBAL

INVESTIGATIONS ON LA MOLINA EFFECTS

Julio Kuroiwa(1)

SUMMARY

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) globally has mainly been based on reducing the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructures, designing and constructing them more robustly, using, for example, seismic codes of Japan and California, USA, from the 1980s, which have substantially reduced structural damages. However, disaster reduction has

lately evolved to disaster risk reduction. By adding risk, it is explicitly including the other risk parameter: hazard. In La Molina, during the Lima 1940, 1966 and 1974 earthquakes, the seismic intensities there were IX MMI while in most of Lima’s built up areas, the intensities were V-VI MMI. The borders of La Molina and Lima areas are separated

by only a few hundred meters, but there were large differences in intensity. Those events are named microzonation effects.

Inspired in La Molina microzonation effects, from 1966 to 2017, the author carried out field damage survey investigations of 25 important disasters occurred in the Americas, Japan and China, and a few more in Peru of geological and hydrometeorogical origin disasters, including climate change. The two most clear microzonation effects

–of the globally investigated disasters– occurred: (1) during the 1985 Michoacan Mexico earthquake, Mw 8.1 USGS, when the peak acceleration was 12cm/s2, at Lazaro Cardenas Port, on stiff soil, close to the seismic epicenter, while in Mexico City (MXC), 350 km from the epicenter, the peak acceleration was 120 cm/s2 on muddy soil at the location of the old Texcoco Lake. The soil amplification was 10 times, in spite of the great distance of MXC from the seismic

epicenter. (2) The other case occurred in Tambo de Mora, some 15 km north of Pisco, during the 2007 Ica Region Peru earthquake, Mw 8.0 USGS. In the multihazard map (MHM) developed in 2001-2002, under the frame of the Sustainable City Programme INDECI/UNDP 1998-2015, the city’s lower sector was classified as being of very

high/high hazard, and a small area resulted from cutting a rigid hill, where a church and deposit were built with 4.2 m and 2.6 m very vulnerable adobe walls respectively, but they did not suffer any damage as was classified six years before with low hazard. In spite of the fact that Tambo de Mora was located on top of the interacting Nazca and South

American plates that had coseismic displacements. At the lower part of Tambo de Mora the seismic intensity was IX MMI and generalized soil liquefaction occurred. The destruction of buildings and infrastructures there was total, whereas no damage was observed in those two adobe constructions. The intensity there was V MMI, i.e. four degrees of difference in the seismic intensity.

These two examples show how important it is to consider hazard in DRR, using peak acceleration or seismic intensity, the two indicators most used in engineering practice. In cases of hydrometereological and climate change disasters, the

site topography is usually more important than the other site characteristics, as happened in New Orleans, during the 1995 Katrina hurricane, since 80% of the city was below the water level of the river and lake surrounding the city during the event. The other case was Sullana, Peru, where La Quebrada, the lower strip of an open “V”-shaped valley,

was destroyed when the Pan-American highway with a 4.0 m high platform, which dammed a large volume of water during El Niño 1982-83, collapsed, destroying a width of three to four blocks of the bottom of La Quebrada, along its full length up to where it flows into the River Chira.

This is an effort to let decision makers and practicing professionals involved in investment know that it is possible to substantially reduce human and material losses by expanding and densifying cities, locating hospitals, schools, key components of water services and business investment sites of new buildings and infrastructures in areas of very low

and low hazards; and by investing in identifying the best location and making detailed investigation of all aspects that permit hazard reduction, and applying updated technologies to reduce the vulnerability of constructions. But above all, it is necessary to invest in good scientific technical education, so that DRR can become usual professional practice.

The answer to the other two action plan priorities of Sendai Frame 2015-2030 has been provided by updating to 2018, the author’s 2005 book Disaster Reduction now entitled Disaster Risk Reduction in the 21st Century. There, government officials and broad spectra of practice professionals, may find guidance on how to strengthen governance and how to

rebuild better – and where.

Keywords: Disaster reduction, disaster risk reduction, microzonation effects, geologic and meteorological disasters,

action plan priorities, knowledge on disasters, rational investment.

(1) Professor emeritus National University of Engineering. Lima, Peru. Director general manager Disaster Risk Reduction Peru International SAC. E-mail: jkuroiwa@drperu-international.com. UNISDR Making Cities Resilient: My City is Getting Ready. Member of Advisory Panel 2010-2015.

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1. OVERVIEW AS AN INTRODUCTION

The global tendency to reduce losses in buildings and infrastructures during disasters was to build them more robustly, focusing on reducing their vulnerability. For example, buildings designed in California, USA, and in Japan applying seismic codes from the 1980s have substantially reduced the structural damage. However, non-structural damage and buildings’ contents (NSDBC) has accounted for a high percentage of earthquake material losses during the last two decades, as occurred during the earthquakes of 1994 Northridge, CA, USA; Kobe 1995 and Tohoku 2011, Japan; as well as in the Maule, Chile, 2010 event. For example, in Kobe 1995, structural damage in hospitals was only 8% of the total losses, and 92% was losses in NSDBC. This is understandable, bearing in mind the high cost of the delicate electronic medical equipment and its vulnerability to impact on hard floors. The Santiago de Chile International Airport was out of service for about a month due to large NSDBC damages. In both cases the seismic intensity was very high, due to local unfavorable soil characteristics. According to the Sendai Frame for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) 2015-2030, the first priority is to understand DRR, and the third to invest in DRR for resilience. To reduce NSDCB damage, it is necessary to know that in those cases losses were caused by excessive lateral flexibility of the buildings, which may be reduced by adding rigid shear walls symmetric in plan, with no rigidity change in elevation, thus reducing lateral drift uniformly. For example, to less than 0.007 for reinforced concrete buildings as regulated by the Peruvian Seismic Code since its 1997 version to the present (2016). Excessive lateral flexibility also caused severe damage in reinforced concrete buildings during the 2016 Ecuador earthquake, when hospitals, including one under construction, were totally lost in the macroseismic area. It may be clearly noted in the pictures of the damaged reinforced concrete buildings caused by the 2017 Iran/Irak earthquake, that the filling brick walls inside the RC columns and beams were destroyed because there was no control of the lateral drift. So it is necessary to invest in efficient architectural and structural engineering education, in such a way that reducing NSDBC and eliminating other known structural defects will become routine professional practice. In this respect, international cooperation is effective. JICA, in March 2018, donated a shaking table mounted on a truck to CISMID/UNI Lima-Peru, through Peru’s Civil Defense, to demonstrate how strong earthquakes are felt inside a room. For sure, contents, furniture, and frames hanging on the walls will fall down when the equivalent intensity reaches VII to VIII MMI. The problem will not be solved only professionally, but also directly by home owners: observing this demonstration, they can learn that it is mainly their problem. The cost of small pieces of steel for fixing a building’s contents is not an economic problem, but it is necessary for the owner to be aware of the risk, and how to reduce it, so that he can then to take steps to ensure the personal protection of his family and to reduce material losses. Lately – globally -- disaster reduction has evolved to disaster risk reduction. By adding risk, the term explicitly includes its other component: hazard. The field damage investigations of 25 important disasters ocurred in the Americas, Japan and China, as well as some more with microzonation effects in Peru, were investigated by the author from 1966 to 2017, focusing on the strong influence of the site characteristics of soil and topography in hazards of geological and hydrometeorological origin, including climate change. The field damage investigations included earthquakes that occurred in California USA in 1971, 1989 and 1944, in Chile 1985 and 2010, Caracas Venezuela in 1967, Mexico 1985, and Peru 1966, 1970, 1974, 1979, 2001 and 2007; other events included were in Japan 1995 and 2010 and China in 2008, Hurricane Katrina 2005 and Andrew 1992, in the USA and Mitch 1990 in Central America, the volcanic eruption of Monte del Ruiz Colombia 1985, and the El Niño 1992-83, 1997-98 and 2017 in Peru and Ecuador. In the early years, my being in the field from 10 days to about two weeks at a time was possible thanks to the generosity of different individuals and institutions. For example, late Caltech professor emeritus George W. Housner, using funds of USNSF, made it possible for me to be in Caracas and the Venezuelan Caribbean coast for more than two weeks, reviewing the architectural and structural building projects, inspecting damage, and interchanging ideas with local practicing engineers and university professors. In Caracas the damage was concentrated at Palos Grandes mainly due to local superficial geology. For Loma Prieta, CA 1989, I was a member of the JICA/CISMID UNI team: the damage survey was made focusing on the La Marina district, some 100 km north of the seismic origin, where constructions were developed on soil filled using the remains of buildings destroyed by the 1906 Great San Francisco Earthquake and fire. In both events the influence of local soil characteristics on the severity of damage to buildings and infrastructure was very strong. In the case of San Francisco, the water pipes in La Marina district were all blocked because of large settlement and extensive soil liquefaction , including the pipes used for fire control. Fortunately the city has a second fire control system, consisting in water-pumping fire boats in San Francisco Bay, which rapidly controlled a number of fire ignition points. It is a lesson of Nature not to be forgotten, as Frank Press, twice president of the US Academic of Science, remarked during his keynote lectures at the opening ceremony of the 11th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering held in San Francisco in 1996.

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2. BACKGROUND AND PREPARATION FOR INVESTIGATING GLOBAL MICROZONATION EFFECTS Peru reached the state of the art in the development of multihazard maps (MHM), first in 1970, when the Japanese Scientific Mission (JSM) developed the MHM of the city of Chimbote, severely affected by the Ancash, Peru 1970 earthquake, 7.8 Richter magnitude. The earthquake killed 67 000 persons, being the most deadly disaster in the Americas during the 20th century. The country objective is that it will be not repeated in the 21st century. Of these victims, 27 000 were buried by the avalanche of rocks, ice and mud, produced by the seismic vibrations generated on the north peak of Mt. Huascaran, 6 768 m. The city of Yungay and the town of Ranrahirca, were erased from the map forever, as well as towns located on the border, downstream of the River Santa. In 2008, the author inspected the damage caused by the Sichuan, China earthquake Mw 7.9, of May 12, 2008. Beichuan was a city with 180 000 inhabitants, which was almost destroyed by the earthquake´s strong vibrations, intensity XI MMI. The total death toll in the Sichuan Province was 80 000 people, and 350 000 were injured. During the rainy season of September 2008, landslides in two tributaries of the river that crosses Beichuan collapsed; the city was severely flooded, and it was left completely destroyed. During interviews with the local authorities and residents, they suggested that the city of Beichuan should remain as a full-scale museum, as an example of where not to live. Yungay and Ranrahirca; and Sichuan are two extreme examples that clearly show where cities should not be located. The state of the art in developing MHM was also reached in 1980, when the author’s consulting company was requested by Taylor Woodrow, one of the largest U.K. general construction corporations, to perform the site investigation of the location of a small experimental nuclear reactor in Huarangal, 30 km north west of Lima. The regulations for site studies were those published by the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency of Vienna Austria. The main conclusions are that geological hazards –earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions– and hydrometeorological events including climate change hazards are highly dependent on natural site conditions; and that by applying multihazard maps to expand and densify cities and to locate buildings and infrastructures in low-hazard areas, we can drastically reduce disaster losses. However, hazards are still not given their due importance when decisions are made on where to locate important investments; this is even true in some cases in advanced countries.

3. SITE INVESTIGATION OF LA MOLINA EFFECTS

The 1940 Lima earthquake effects were known by reviewing published reports, and the 1966 and 1974 Lima earthquakes were investigated in some detail with the assistance of graduate students of the National University of Engineering, who developed their civil engineering professional and Masters theses. The author’s engineering consulting company was involved in reviewing some retrofitting projects and reports. 3.1. Investigation of microzonation effects of low magnitude earthquakes in the La Molina area and the Rimac Valley Brian Tucker, president of Geohazard International Menlo Park, CA, in 1983 asked the author about a location in Arequipa, where, during previous investigations of the Arequipa 1979 earthquake, it had been noted that damage to buildings located in cultivated valleys was clearly more severe than to those located on dry, compact soil along the valley border. It was common practice during the Inca times to build on the valley borders to preserve green areas and reduce the risk of disasters. Arequipa is located some 1 000 km south of Lima. Tucker was advised to investigate, instead, the site characteristics in La Molina and Lima, due to logistic facilities in the country’s capital city, the existing data available for making comparisons, and the common interest of the site effects. In February and March 1984, Brian recorded over a dozen events of about 4.0 Richter magnitude, from which he selected the records of seven events for further analysis. La Molina is a small narrow ravine tributary of the dejection cone of the Rimac River that crosses Lima east to west. See F-01. Rimac is a torrential river originating in the western Andes range at over 5 000 m.a.s.l., and Lima is located on the edge of the Pacific ocean, on average 100 m.a.s.l. and distant only some 120 km from the Andes water division line; so the soil is coarse with round stones and large sand particles, well compacted, with soil S waves velocity over 400 m/s, classified as very dense soil or soft rock by the International Code Council, widely used in the Americas. However, in La Molina its residual soil, product of the weathering of surrounding rocky hills, resulted in uncompacted soil. The seismic waves are also trapped in the narrow ravine by the stiff mountain rocks, increasing the seismic intensity. During February and March 1994, 15 small magnitude earthquakes of about 4 Richter were recorded, from which the seven with the highest magnitude were selected for analysis. Their epicentral distances were 48 to 84 km from La Molina. Ten seismometers were deployed, each one having three components: NS, EW and vertical, with the pendulum period of 1s, digital register, pass band between 0 and 30 Hz, and amplifier. Eight such seismometers were installed at La Molina, seven on soil in two alignments along the length and width of the small valley, and one on a rock outcrop. The remaining two were installed in Surquillo, representing Lima’s very low seismic hazard soil, and another on top of a rocky hill; this had no communication interference with the other stations, and was designated the master station that triggered the seismometer system with a radio link.

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F-01. SEISMIC HAZARD OF LIMA METROPOLITAN AREA, PERU, AND LOCATION OF

SEISMOMETERS IN THE LA MOLINA EXPERIMENT

Author´s Notes. The descriptions of the zones were not literally translated into English. He suggests that for

defining seismic hazard zones, as an alternative, this be done according to Table 1613.5.2., page 341, of the

International Building Code (IBC) version 2009 or newer. The IBC is used in the USA and most of the Latin

American countries. At present the cost and time for measuring S-wave velocity have been substantially

reduced. The application of �̅�𝑠 in engineering practice for RRD will be direct. The data of the analysis of La Molina experiment were sent by Tucker to the author. The analysis was the work of Dr. Rafael Benites as part of his graduate work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His advisor was Prof. K. Aki. The spectral ratios for the E-W and N-S components of La Molina with regard to La Molina rock and Lima Rock for the E-W component event E are shown in F-02c and in F-02d they are shown for the N-S component of event C. The relative difference of these ratios shows an amplification up to 8 for the E-W component of event E from 2.5-6.5 Hz and in the N-S component of event C from 2.5-6.7 or For 3HZ or T = 0.33 s the amplification is maximum, which is close to the period of the first natural mode vibration of buildings on the UNALM campus, which have repeatedly been damaged.

Zone with rocks, very dense and dense coarse soils. Very rigid and dense silt and clay soils. With microtremor periods of less than 0,3 s. Semicompact to dense, coarse soil deposits, and silt and clay soils. Microtremor periods of less than 4.0 s. Coarse to semicompact sand deposits, and soft to medium compaction silt and clay deposits. Microtremor periods of over 4.0 s.

Highly unstable slopes, swampy soils, loose Aeolian sand deposits, with liquefaction potential. Areas of high seismic wave amplification. Recent uncompacted filled soil, where important settlements are expected, as well as very high seismic wave amplification.

Tsunami inundation area.

ZONE I

ZONE II

ZONE III

ZONE VI

ZONE V

ZONE VI

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F-02. LA MOLINA EXPERIMENT BY BRIAN TUCKER, 1994

a). Seismometers being calibrated at the Geotechnical

Laboratory of UNALM. Those in the foreground record

horizontal components. Those in the background record

vertical movements.

b). Ratio of acceleration on rock and acceleration on

soft soils. (Ref. ldriss. 1991). La Molina 1984 were

added by B. Tucker, R. Benites and the author.

c) and d) spectral ratio and frequencies between La Molina Rock and Lima Rock . For frequencies of engineering

interest 1 to 10 cps or T=0,1 to 1,0 s, the ratio varies from 3 to nearly 10, that is, from 300 to 1,000% of

amplification. This is for small earthquakes. The amplification ratio is reduced for more intense earthquakes. See

F-02b. Notice when the acceleration on rock approaches 0.40 g, because of the highly non–linear behavior of the

ground, acceleration on soft soil grows very slowly, and at that level there is almost no amplification. This

information may be useful to avoid the designing of unnecessarily robust and costly buildings.

4. TSUNAMI THREATS IN THE AMERICAS AND JAPAN

Lately the field surveys of the author have been reduced to a few days. After reviewing existing field reports and structural and nonstructural measures on RRD, interviews are conducted with key persons on previously selected matters of interest. For example, for the damage inspection of the Maule, Chile 2010 earthquake, only the

Concepción water treatment plant was visited, and the influence of the site’s natural conditions on the damage degree, extending to the port of Dichato, some 35 km north of the city of Concepcion. Dichato is on the border of a “U” shaped bay, open directly to the seismic epicenter of the 2010 earthquake and it suffered severe damage. All wooden houses were totally destroyed, except for 1.5 m x 1.5 m brick bathrooms that remained undamaged, as seen

in 2010 photographs. In January 2017, in the abandoned areas, those small constructions were still there. The

b)

d) c)

a)

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objective of inspecting the Dichato tsunami effect was to compare what happened in Sanriku, Japan, during the

2011 tsunami, and the previous ones of 1896 and 1933, where there are a series of V, U and W-shaped bays and the tsunami waves were exceptionally high. Sanriku is one of the world’s regions most sensitive to tsunami effects; including distant tsunamis, such as, for example, the unknown 1 700 tsunami. Recently applying paleotsunami

techniques, it was confirmed by C14 dating that in 1700 + 10 years, a large tsunami that was generated in the Juan de Fuka subduction zone in the USA north western region was the origin of the tsunami that affected the Sanriku region in 1700.

During the great Valdivia, Chile Mw 9.5 earthquake, a large tsunami generated by the event spread all over the Pacific Ocean, causing more than 100 mortal victims in the Hawaian islands, Sanriku, and other places. Crescent City in northern CA was affected by tsunamis originating in Alaska in 1946 and in Japan in 2011. During the

Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, it was one of the places on the west coast of the Americas where the tsunami waves were the highest, together with those recorded in Arica, Chile. On the other hand, the Port of Paracas was not inundated by the tsunami during the Pisco Peru 2007 earthquake and tsunami. Are there places naturally protected

from tsunamis? Has anybody been investigating the matter? If so, please contact the author: jkuroiwa@drperu-international.com

When the author, together with Dr. Li-Fan Liu Prof. Emeritus of Engineering at Cornell University, USA, was invited to Japan to receive the Tsunami Hamaguchi Goryo International Recognition in Tokyo on November 1st, 2017, when preparing his lecture, he investigated the Callao Port tsunami hazard, and found that 65% of the country’s import and export activity uses the port of Callao, and the tsunami risk is very high. Most of Peru’s Navy

units are placed in Callao. The author is suggesting that the Peruvian Navy verify whether Paracas really is a “tsunami-free port”. DHN Scientific technical unit of the Peruvian Navy has the tools and personnel trained in Japan to do their job. The new highway from Callao to Paracas has just been completed in two double lane

freeways of 210 km. So the access to Pisco from Lima/Callao has been facilitated. In addition to reducing the earthquake and tsunami risks of the Port of Callao, it is necessary to improve the port

underway project, according to updated scientific-technical knowledge and consultants with experience. On November 2, 2017, the author visited PARI –the Port and Airport Research Institute– of the Government of Japan located in Kawasaki, Japan, which may provide technical assistance to upgrade the tsunami resistance of the Port of Callao.

5. NEW THREATS FOR LARGE JAPANESE CITIES AND REDUCING LOSSES OF BUSINESS

INVESTMENTS

The Tohoku earthquake and tsunami was inspected, five years after the event, focusing on damage to the water and sewage system of the lower area of Sendai city, and a new problem emerged. It was odd to know that water pipes were broken in large numbers in the upper area of Sendai city, which is a hilly area where stiff soil predominates. A

large number of water pipes were broken in the transition strip of cut and filled soils, and in the filled area near the transition border. Engineers from the Municipality of Sendai told the author that large Japanese cities such as Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya have the same problem, previously not foreseen. In Latin America in the Armenia, Colombia 1999, and Tacna, Peru 2001 earthquakes, in the filled areas, when cut and fill were made for urban

habilitation, the destruction of buildings and infrastructure was total there. They were man-created risk scenarios, which may be reduced if filled areas are used for parks and recreation areas in the city urban planning, and in the remaining areas flexible and light material constructions such as wooden houses are built.

In the sewage treatment plant of Sendai located near the sea shore, structural damage to the four-story reinforced concrete building was observed, caused by the impact of 10 m tsunami waves, as well as the loss of its electromechanical components, caused by tsunami inundation. Now watertight doors protect the electromechanical

equipment. The inspection was guided by the plant engineers and by members of the Sendai City Department of Engineering. At the Municipality of Sendai, Business Continuity Planning (BCP) and its management (BCM) for water and sewage systems were also discussed.

. BCP and BCM consume valuable management time; in the case of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Mw 9.0, and tsunami, they proved to be very useful to RRD. Even in advanced countries, however, BCP and BCM are not

efficiently applied in some cases, especially in small and medium businesses. Ban Ki-moon issued a stark warning from the UN Headquarters in New York in 2013 to the world’s business community that “Economic losses linked to disasters are out of control and will continue to escalate unless disaster

risk management becomes a core part of business investment strategies,” and he continued: “We have carried out a thorough review of disaster losses at national level and it is clear that direct losses from floods, earthquakes and drought have been underestimated by at least 50%. So far this century, direct losses from disasters are in the range

of US$ 2.5 trillion.”

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Losses can be reduced if we select low-hazard areas or lots to develop industrial plants, malls, storage areas,

hospitals, and school buildings; and by developing the plot plan of the facilities, locating the more costly equipment

and finished products in the relatively low-hazard area of the selected lot, and raw material storage and recreation

areas in relatively higher hazard sectors. For example, if a river is the origin of the hazard, within the lot, the strip

closest to the river should be used for the least costly investment of the area if the area is flooded for example by a

1,000-year return period event. With such measures, it is possible to reduce material losses from 20 to 80% of the

possible total losses, and consume a relatively short management time. The project manager, with the advice of a

geologist, a civil engineer, and an urban planner, will be able to solve the problem efficiently.

6. PERU STATE POLITICS AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR DRR

After insisting for many years that disaster reduction needed to be one of Peru’s State Policies, (see p. 416 of the

book Disaster Reduction, Kuroiwa J. (2005)) on December 17, 2010 in Peru’s Government Palace in Lima, a

plenary session of the National Agreement unanimously approved that Disaster Risk Reduction would become

Peru’s State Policy Nº 32. On November 1st, 2012, Peru’s National Government 2011-2016 by Supreme Decree Nº

111, of the Peruvian Prime Minister’s Office, approved that State Policy Nº 32 was to be of compulsory

compliance by all officials of the central government and regional and local government authorities. Both these

high level decisions (of 2010 and 2012) are facilitating DRR activities and investments.

In September 2017, the Mexico Chiappas and Puebla earthquakes alarmed Peruvian people who saw on television

how 8 to 12-story buildings collapsed, killing and trapping people. In front of Lima there is a seismic gap clearly

seen on the Seismic Map of Peru produced by the Peruvian Geophysical Institute (IGP), where researchers advise

authorities and people on the imminence of a great magnitude earthquake that threatens Lima’s 10.3 million

inhabitants, and if a tsunami is generated, a large number of people may lose their lives. The author was invited to a

widely viewed political TV programme, on September 15, 2017. There the author proposed to the Peruvian

Government 2016-2021: “To train Peruvians with less socioeconomic capacity and knowledge on DRR, to be able

to confront different disaster scenarios with knowledge and readiness, by training them efficiently.” The proposal

was made because during the 2007 Peru earthquake and tsunami, people from La Punta, Callao, a high tsunami risk

district, the evacuation was chaotic despite the fact that the people living there are well educated people, who were

trained during two three-year periods by a dedicated mayor, using the traditional method applied in Peru for some

decades. But during the 2007 incident, it was proved that those people were not at the level of high school students

in Japan, as “the Kamaishi Miracle” showed, nor at the level of the Chilean population. In Chile during the 2010

earthquake and tsunami, even though the tsunami alarm was cancelled due to a technical misunderstanding,

Chileans living in the tsunami inundation areas near the epicenter evacuated the hazardous area because of the clear

interpretation of natural signs, such as the short difference of time of the arrival of P and S waves, and long

duration of the earthquake (more than three minutes).

A few days after the TV programme message, the author was contacted by the then Peruvian Minister of Defense,

Dr. Carlos Nieto, who did very well during the occurrence of the Coastal El Niño 2017, putting out clear, short

messages from the National Emergency Operation Center (COEN). After a working meeting of 75 minutes a few

days after the TV proposal, the author was appointed ad-honorem advisor to the Minister of Defense focused on the

El Niño 2017 reconstructions and on educating Peru’s poorer sectors in DRR knowledge. During a later meeting,

Dr. Nieto commented that the author’s books Reducción de Desastres (2002) in Spanish and Disaster Reduction

(2005) in English, need to be read by all officials of the Peruvian Army, Air Force, Navy and National Police.

Accordingly, starting in mid-October 2017 these books are being up dated to 2018, to include the important global

and local advancement. This time, the author is having the valuable collaboration of Dr. Jose Salas professor of

Hydrology and Hydraulics from the Colorado State University at Fort Collins CO, recognized by the American

Association of Civil Engineers; and of Prof. Manual Garcia of The National University of Colombia, Bogota, an

expert on landslides, as proved in the field at the Paz del Rio area, when the author was the chief technical advisor

to the Government of Colombia, UN Disaster Mitigation Programme in Colombia. The Team for updating includes

some of the author’s former students, who are at present the best in the country in their specialties.

But in the adaptation of Peru’s Sustainable Programme, Peru’s Civil Defense UNDP -which produced the

multihazard maps of 175 Peruvian and four Ecuadorian Cities from 1998 to 2015- to become Peru’s Resilient

Cities Programme (PRCP) 2017-2030 two more attributes are being added.

Attributes being added:

• Full incorporation of community members to PRCP 2017-2030, so that they will be trained to be responsible

for their own safety, especially to locate their new homes in low-hazard areas. The active participation of

sociologists and social communicators is needed, and in remote towns and rural areas primary school teachers

and members of the National Police are essential.

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• Incorporation of the civil community, focusing on business men who need to protect their assets and future

investments.

So the new book is going to reach a wider audience and need not be so technical as the author’s past books,

addressed to engineers, architects and other technical practicing professionals. To begin with, the first two chapters

are completely new and a “mobile focus group” is reviewing them to receive their recommendations.

7. CONCLUSIONS AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Just as the “Miracle of Kamaishi” was not a miracle but the result of the Japanese system of good education to

protect people’s lives from disasters, so innovations on RRD are products of the systematic planning and execution

of long-term objectives. In the case of the Miracle of Kamaishi, a key measure was added by Dr. Katada, Prof. of

Civil Engineering of Gunma University, who advised the educational system of the port of Kamaishi, severely

affected by the 1896 and 1933 tsunamis, that the tsunami inundation maps of the Municipality of Kamaishi were

useful for the past, but the tsunamis that threatened Kamaishi in the future might go beyond the limit in which the

population of the port was trained. Katada’s innovation was that instead of telling the school teachers that a 1,000-

year return period tsunami was threatening Kamaishi, as indeed happened, which could have caused confusion and

discussions, he found a simple way to transmit his conclusions to the population of Kamaishi, merely telling them

that the old inundation limit needed to be extended.

Innovation in DRR is a product of good knowledge of the threat, as stated in the first priority action of the Sendai

Frame for RRD 2015-2030; but to know what requires to be added to existing strategy and techniques of innovative

approach, it is necessary to be updated.

In the case of the author this was made possible thanks to the generosity of several individuals and institutions.

Only a few will be mentioned here. The late emeritus Caltech professor George W. Housner, the father of

Earthquake Engineering in the USA, mentor of the author for more than 40 years. Prof. Makoto Watabe of Tokyo

Metropolitan University, thanks to whose continuous support, together with that of Dr. Ichiro Tanahashi and Prof.

Roberto Morales, former rector of UNI, it was made possible to set up the Japan–Peru Center for Earthquake

Research and Disaster Mitigation Center CISMID at the National University of Engineering Lima – Peru, with the

invaluable support of JICA. From 1986 to date, former students of the author had institutional framework to

develop most of the 180 professional engineering and M.Sc theses on DRR, some of them of a high enough quality

to be international contributions. The UN agencies UNDP, UNDRO then UNDHA/Geneva, at present OCHA, the

World Bank, the Organization of American States OAS, JICA, USNSF, USAID, UK DFID, Canadian CIDA, just

to mention a few, made it possible to do field damage surveys for 10 days to two weeks during the early days, and

for a few days with specific objectives, contacting key institutions and persons during the past few years.

But private companies have also contributed to the author’s training. When the author’s consulting company was in

charge of the supervision of the 60,000 m2 of Callao’s Port Container Terminal, it was found that the high pressure

fire control system pipes were asbestos cement pipe fixed on reinforced concrete cylinders 1.8 m in diameter and

2.0 m depth.

The water pipes were located on reclaimed mud from the ocean bottom. The author proposed to the Callao Port

Authority, the owner of the project, the designer and the constructor, to change the design of the high pressure

water system. This proposal was accepted, and the asbestos cement pipes were replaced by ductile steel pipes; in

addition, the fixed joints were changed for mobile pipe unions permitting longitude movement and rotation.

During the Ica Region 2007 earthquake, the system did not suffer any damage. In early 2016 the author was visted

by Frans Alfering, a Dutch expert on modern water pipes. He was surprised that in Peru in 1982, the mobile joints

were used to take permanent soil deformation caused by soil liquefaction, and that this was solved with same

technical approach as the Kubota pipes’ flexible joints, which did not suffer damage during the Tohoku, Japan

2011 earthquake in the area where widespread liquefaction occurred. Frans Alferink recommended MEXICHEM –

a multinational corporation that manufactures water pipes, for example PVC-O longitudinally and radially

expanded pipes with new joints. As a social responsibility, MEXICHEM SA granted a recognition to the author,

which was invested in producing a new Guide, Practical Manual for Disaster Reduction for Protecting water and

sewage systems from earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding, and landslides, a 200-page book published in May 2017,

which is being useful, since the goal of the Peru’s present government is to provide water services to all Peruvians.

9

SELECTED REFERENCES

BRUNO A., MAS E., KOSHIMURA S., FUJII Y., YAURI S., JIMENEZ C., AND H., YANAGISAWA (2013).-

“Tsunami Inundation Mapping in Lima, for Two Tsunami Source Scenarios”. Journal of Disaster Research (2) 274-

284. March 2013.

CHAVEZ M., GHIL M. AND J. URRUTIA-FUCUGAUCHI. (2016). “Extreme Events. Observations, Modeling, and

Economics”. Geophysical Monograph Series. GM 214. Co-publication of American Geophysical Union and John

Wiley and Sons. 423 p.

DELGADO A., and C. GARCÍA. (1982). “Evacuation Plan for cities affected by tsunamis, La Punta-Pucusana area”.

Professional Thesis. School of Civil Engineering, National University of Engineering. Lima Peru.

EERI SPECIAL EARTHQUAKE REPORT (2011). Learning from Earthquake. The Japan Tohoku Tsunami of March

11, 2011. Nov. 2011.

GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN, GFDRR, THE WORLD BANK (2012). LEARNING FROM MEGADISASTER 2011.

The Great East Japan Earthquake. Presented in the International Seminar of the Board of Governors of the World

Bank held in Tokyo Japan, in October 2012.

JIMÉNEZ C., MOGGIANO N., MAS E., ADRIANO B., KOSHIMURA S., FUJII Y. and YANAGISAWA H. (2013).

Seismic Source of 1746 Callao Earthquake from Tsunami Numerical Modeling. Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.

8 No. 2.

KUROIWA, J. and A. DELGADO (2017). Resiliente Cities Agenda for the 21st Century. 16th World Conference on

Earthquake, 16WCEE 2017. Santiago Chile, January 9th to 13th 2017. Available in Disaster Risk Reduction Peru

International web page.

KUROIWA, Julio (2014). Peru sustainable (resilient) cities programme 1998-2012. Its application 2014 - 2021. 4th

International Conference on Building Resilience, 8-11 September 2014, Salford Quays, United Kingdom.

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com. Science Direct.

KUROIWA J. (2008). New Approach to Reducing The Risk of Natural Disasters. 14th. World Seismic Engineering

Conference 12 - 17 October 2008, Beijing, CHINA.

KUROIWA, Julio (2006). The Peru's Sustainable Cities Program 1998-2005 and its Application to Large Built-up

Areas. 100th Anniversary Earthquake Conference. Commemorating the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake. San

Francisco CA, USA.

KUROIWA J. (2005). Water Crisis, Lifelines and Urban Fires. IRCC Global Policy Summit on Sustainability Marriot

Resort Surfers Paradise. 15 Sept. 2005. Queensland, AUSTRALIA.

KUROIWA J. (2002). Sustainable Cities, a Regional Seismic Scenario, and the 2001.06.23 Arequipa Peru Earthquake.

Invited autor by NOAA and OAS. Special Issue of Natural Hazard Review. Reston, Virginia, USA.

MAS, Erick (2009). Reinforced concrete tsunami-resistant structures based on experiences of tsunamis in the Indian

Ocean (2004) and Camaná (2001). Master Sc thesis, FIC / UNI.

MATTHEW FRANCIS J., Principal Advisor: YEH H. Oregon State University. FEMA & EERI (2006). Tsunami

Inundation of Roadways, Bridges and Foundations. Observations and Technical Guidance from the Great Sumatra

Andaman Tsunami. EERI/FEMA NEHRP 2006, Professional Fellowship Report.

MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA. MARINA DE GUERRA DEL PERÚ. Directorate of Hydrography and Navigation. Post

Tsunami Report, August 2007.

O´ROURKI, M. J. and LIU, X. (1999). Response of Buried Pipelines Subject to Earthquake Effects. MCEER Serie

Monographic Nº 3. Bufalo. NY, USA. 249 p.

OPS/OMS (1998). Mitigation of Natural Disasters in Drinking Water Systems and Sanitary Sewerage. Guidelines for

Vulnerability Analysis. Disaster Mitigation Series. Washington DC, USA.

SIMONS M., MINSON S., SLADEN A., ORTEGA F., JIANG J., OWEN S., MENG L., AMPUERO .J.P, WEI S.,

CHU R., HELMBERGER D., KANAMORI H., HETLAND E., MOORE A. and WEBB F. (2011). The 2011

Magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake: Mosaicking the Megathrust from Seconds to Centuries. Science Vol. 332,

17 June 2011.

THE MIRACLE OF KAMAISHI: How 3,000 students survived 3/11. Public Relations Office Government of Japan.

http://mnj.gov-online.go.jp/kamaishi.html

UNISDR. Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015.

UNISDR. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030.

YAMAZAKI F. and ZAVALA C. (2012). SATREPS Project on Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster

Mitigation Technology in Peru. Journal of Disaster Research, Vol. 8, No. 2. 224-234.

10

ANNEX I

ILLUSTRATION OF SELECTED CASES OF CLEAR MICROZONATION

EFFECTS From the many cases of field damage surveys made by the author, a few cases have been selected where the microzonation effects were very clear, to illustrate how important site hazards are in RRD. Microzonation Effects of the 1985 Michoacan, Mexico, Earthquake The 1985 Michoacan, Mexico earthquake, Mw 8.1 USGS, accelerograms were recorded at different distances from the seismic epicenter, which was located in the subduction zone of Pacific ocean in front of and very close to the Lazaro Cardenas Port.

F-03b shows the location map of the earthquake epicenter, practically on top of Lazaro Cardenas Port, Mexico City (MXC) some 350 km from the seismic epicenter; and Puebla, where an accelerogram was recorded that was less severe than the nine accelerograms recorded at MXC. F-03a shows the accelerogram recorded at Lazaro Cardenas Port, station CDR. On the left are indicated the acceleration scale, 50 and 100 cm/s2; and horizontally, the time in seconds. At MXC, nine records are presented: five on firm soil (TEA to VIV stations), where the peak acceleration in all cases is less than 45cm/s2. But in the Lake Zone four stations (SCT – TLA) clearly show that the acceleration amplitude is larger than that of the other records. Comparing the peak acceleration in the CDR station at Lazaro Cardenas where the peak acceleration was 12 cm/s2, with the record in the SCT station, the peak acceleration was some 120 cm/s2, that is, in spite of the large distance, the peak acceleration increased 10 times. In addition, it may be noted that the larger waves are sinusoidal near to two seconds, so it is possible to understand why almost all the 3000 buildings that collapsed or were beyond the possibility of retrofitting were buildings 7-10 story tall. The natural first mode period of building in MXC is much larger than in Santiago de Chile or Lima Peru, with stiff and dry soil where in general T=0.1 n, or the period of building is estimated multiplying 0.1 x n (story number): for example for a 10-story building 0.1 x 10 = 1s, but in MXC it is about twice as much, because long piles are used in MXC. In 7-8 story buildings with period shorter than 2.0s, the first harmonic waves deteriorated their lateral rigidity and T was enlarged approaching 2.0s, and the next sinusoidal waves liquidated the buildings, due to resonance. In 1982, three years before the Michoacan event, Dr. Singh investigator emeritus of communicated to the author that in Mexico there were two seismic gaps: in Michoacan and Guerrero. The seismic gap in Michoacan was activated in 1985 and in 2012-13, there were two earthquakes in the Guerrero/Oaxaca area, and one in 2017 in Chiapas. The seismic epicenter moved from NW to SW. The accelerograms recorded in 1985 were provided to the author by Dr. Roberto Meli professor of UNAM, director of CENAPRED at the time. Microzonation Effects in Mexico City during the Mexico 1957, 1979 and 1985 Earthquakes F-04a shows the most severely affected area in MXC, during the 1957, 1979 and 1985 Mexico earthquakes. They are concentrated at the west end of the Lake Zone, where very soft or water-saturated clay predominates. Is it the result of “U” shaped bay effect as happened in Sanriku during the 1896, 1933 and 2011 tsunamis and at the Port of Dichato , Chile during the 2010 tsunami, where at the tip of “U” shaped bays the tsunami waves have been very high?. The damage distribution of the 1957 MXC earthquake is highlighted in green. Notice that of the total losses, 96.5% was concentrated in the Lake Zone, 4% in the Transition Zone, and 0.4% in the stiff soil area. The statistical data are clear enough to demonstrate that clear microzonation effects have occurred in Mexico City during the last three earthquakes that affected MXC. The worst effects of the MXC 1979 earthquake were concentrated at the west end of Lake Zone. Finally, the Lake Zone was the area where 3 000 reinforced concrete and some steel buildings 7-10 story high collapsed. Notice that the worst effects of some areas of the 1957 earthquake are outside the Lake Zone. This may be attributed to inaccurate data collection of the 1957 earthquake. Notice in F-04b that landfill and soft clay soil predominate in the Lake Zone to a depth of 40-50 m.

11

F-03. MICROZONATION EFFECTS OF THE 1985 MICHOACAN, MEXICO, EARTHQUAKE

b) Location of the earthquake epicenter, overlapping

there, Lazaro Cardenas Port, Mexico City and

Puebla. Both figures are courtesy of Prof. Singh,

emeritus researcher of the National Autonomous

University of Mexico (UNAM).

a) Accelerograms recorded at Lazaro Cardenas Port, near to the seismic epicenter, Station CDR in the above Fig. and

nine recorded in Mexico City, 350 km from the epicenter, five stations TEA to VIV on firm soil, and four on soft

soil, SCT to TLA at the location of the old Texcoco lake, and the last one was recorded at Puebla.

F-04. MICROZONATION EFFECTS IN MEXICO CITY DURING THE MEXICO 1957, 1979 AND 1985

EARTHQUAKES

a). Clear microzonation effects of the Mexico 1957,

1979 and 1985 earthquakes: the most severely

affected areas are concentrated at the west end of the

Lake Zone. Notice the damage of the 1957 event (In

green to highlight the data): 95.6% of the damagewas

concentrated at the Lake Zone, 4% in the Transition

Zone, and only 0.4% was on the firm soil where most

of Mexico City’s residents live. Please also observe

that the 3 000 reinforced concrete and steel buildings

that collapsed in 1985 are in the Lake Zone.

b). Soil profile of the Lake, Transition, and Firm Soil Zones

at Mexico City.

a) b)

b) a)

12

F-05. MICROZONATION EFFECTS IN TAMBO DE MORA, ICA, PERU, DURING THE PISCO 2007

EARTHQUAKE

a). Multihazard map of Tambo de Mora developed in 2001-2002 under the framework of the Sustainable City

Programme INDECI-UNDP 1998-2015. The dark orange area was qualified as high/very high hazard, and the yellow

area as low/medium hazard. 1 to 7. Effects of the 2007 earthquake in Tambo de Mora. 1) Classic “volcano” of soil

liquefaction. 2) Lateral spreading of the gray wall. 3) The brick house settled 0.70 to 0.80 m. 4) The loaded brick

walls settled, and the concrete floor was broken. 5) Adobe 4.2 m high walls of a church, and 6) Adobe 2.6 m high

wall. 5 and 6 with no damage. 7) Extensive soil liquefaction occurred north of Tambo de Mora.

F-06. ADVANCEMENTS IN SEISMIC CODES IN PERU

a) Damage due to short column structural defect. 1974

Lima Peru earthquake.

b) Left: building damaged by the 2007 Ica Peru

earthquake. Right: building designed with the

Peruvian 1997 Seismic Code. No damage.

c) School buildings designed with the 1997 Seismic Code

did not suffer any damage during the 2001 Arequipa or

the 2007 Ica earthquakes in Peru

a)

a) b)

c)

13

Microzonation Effect in Tambo de Mora, Ica, Peru, during the Pisco 2007 Earthquake

The microzonation effects in Tambo de Mora during the 2007 Ica Region earthquake, Mw 8.0 USGS, were investigated

noting the difference in seismic intensity in Tambo de Mora, under the framework of Peru’s Sustainable Programme

INDECI/UNDP 1998-2015, six years before the 2007 event. The microzonation map of Tambo de Mora was developed

as shown in F-05a. The dark orange area was qualified as high/high sector hazard and the yellow area low/medium

hazard. The effects of the Ica Region 2007 earthquake are shown in F-05(1) to (7), where the explanations are included

below the pictures.

Advancements in Seismic Codes in Peru

Not only in Japan and in California USA, have the seismic codes subtantially reduced structural damage, but also in

some developing countries, such as Peru. F-06a shows one of the most common structural defetcs: short columns. This

defect was common also in Japan and in the USA before the 1980s, in the Philippines during the 1990 earthquake, and

in the 1999 Chi-chi Taiwan earthquake. In the last two places and in the Nasca Peru 1996 earthquake, about 50% of the

damage in reinforced concrete school buildings was due to the structural defect of short columns.

The author was appointed chairman of the Peruvian Seismic Code 1997 Committee. He advised the Code’s working

group to increase the rigidity of buildings parallel to the main faҫade as seen in F-04a and to eliminate the short column

defect. Two professors from the Catholic University of Peru (PUCP) and the National University of Engineering (UNI),

with the assistance of a number of students who performed lengthy investigations, recommended two changes in the

1997 Peru Seismic Code: to reduce the lateral drift to 0.007; and to use symmetric faҫades including the front and back

sides, using rigid shear walls, separate 2 cm from the filling walls, and increasing the importance of building “U”

coefficient from 1.3 to 1.5. These two changes included in the 1997 seismic Code NTE 0.30/97 produce buildings such

as that present on in the right side of F-06b. F-06c shows the new school building model in Peru, which was not

damaged during the Arequipa 2001 or the Ica 2007 earthquakes.

Multihazard Map and Land-Use Plan for Sullana, Peru

F-07a shows the MHM of Sullana city located in NW Peru. During the El Niño 1982-83, the Panamerican Highway 4.0

m platform dammed a large volume of water. In March 1983 the “dam collapsed” as it was designed to take the loads

of trucks and busses. Disasters of climate origin are usually dominated by the topography of the area. When the

“dambreak” occurred, the large volume of water r through the bottom of the Quebrada, which in a cross-section is a

very open “V” shape. The damage of El Niño caused in la Quebrada is shown in F-07b and in F-07b, the canal

expressway working during El Niño 1997-98. F-07d shows the land-use plan for Sullana City developed in 2000. Due

to enlargement of the drainage area, because of an increase in urban area, the canal capacity is not enough for the larger

water volume. Engineers from the Sullana Subregion proposed to deepen the canal expressway, but this would be

complicated and costly. In 2017, a former student of the author, who developed his CE theses at UNI on local effects of

El Niño 1982-83, put forward a rational and much cheaper proposal, simple to build, sending the excess water directly

into the river as shown in the broken red line of F-07a.

Sullana Canal Expressway during the 2017 Coastal el Niño

In March 2017 during the Coastal El Niño 2017, the canal expressway was fully working and was operating at its

maximum capacity. The city of Sullana had no problem, as shown in F-08b and F-08c, whereas in Piura, the capital city

of the Grau Region, the water level in its downtown area including the main square -Plaza de Armas- was some 0.80 m

high, causing not only structural and non-structural damage, but also the total loss of contents of documents located in

basements of some government buildings.

14

F-07. MULTIHAZARD MAP AND LAND-USE PLAN FOR SULLANA, PERU

b). Damage in La Quebrada in 1983.

a). Hazard Map for Sullana, Peru. The continuous red blue strip is the canal

constructed in 1984-85, following a route traced by nature during the El

Niño in March in 1983, when a 100-300 m strip was destroyed by dammed

water overflowing because the platform of the Pan American Highway had

broken. ("Dam break"). c). The canal along la Quebrada in

the 1997 – 1998 El Niño.

d). Land-use plan for Sullana, Peru, 2000. Note that a lot of agricultural land next to the city has been protected

with a green belt. The area to be developed is the desert zone to the left. During the Coastal El Niño 2017, the canal

did not have enough capacity. Local practicing civil engineers in Sullana proposed to drain the excess water with a

steel pipe (red broken line in F-05a), directly to river; this was the most rational solution, and cheaper than

deepening the canal, which would be complicated and very costly. Ref. from p. 45 of the book Disaster Reduction

Kuroiwa J. 2005 updated to 2018.

15

F-08. SULLANA CANAL EXPRESSWAY DURING THE 2017 COASTAL EL NIÑO

a). The Sullana Canal functioning fully in March 2017. Some doors had to be protected with sandbags and wood

planks.

b). Canal–via at Santa Cruz bridge. To the right, notice the vehicular entrance to the canal.

c). Outside the Sullana canal-via, during the March 2017 downpour rains, vehicular transit was fluid. But in the

city of Piura, the capital city of the Grau Region, its Plaza de Armas was under 0.70 m of water. b) and c) Courtesy

of Caja Sullana.