innovating past global crisis
DESCRIPTION
Slides from Ramez Naam's Keynote at the World Future Society 2013 conference in Chicago: Innovating Past Global Crisis. The world is up against the largest natural resource challenges it has ever faced. At the same time, we must make room to life billions out of poverty. Between this rock and hard place, there is only one way out - innovation. We must innovate in science and technology. AND we must innovate in the market systems that have thus far failed to recognize the full value of the natural resources we depend on. Called the best talk at World Future Society, this presentation doesn't dodge the hard reality of the challenges facing us, but leaves you with a sense of hope and motivation about our ability to tackle them. This talk is based on the book, The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet: http://amzn.to/15bToAJTRANSCRIPT
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Innovating Past Global Crisis
Ramez Naam @ramez
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NASA
It was the best of times, It was the worst of times
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BEST OF TIMES
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INFANT MORTALITYEgypt 1973: 15%Egypt 1940s: 25%US 1900: 25%
Egypt Today: 2%US Today: 0.7%
Lamia Hassan
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LONGER LIVES
Rich Nations
World
Average Years of Life
Wikimedia Commons
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Percent of World Living on $1 / Day
PovertyImages
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Addicted to Growth
Aivaris Zukis
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WORST OF TIMES
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Dying Forests
Laitche
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Geraldine Garcon Juncas
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Dhy
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Sam Beebe
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NASA
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NASA
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Kansas University
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Bruno de Giusti
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Temperature Change since 1880 (degrees F)
Linfield College
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GlobalWarmingArt.com
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GlobalWarmingArt.com
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GlobalWarmingArt.com
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European PressPhoto Agency
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Xinhua
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UPI
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Andrey Smirnov
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Larry W. Smith
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Dictionnaire-Environnement
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Footprint
NASA
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Addicted to Growth
Aivaris Zukis
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Footprint 2
NASA
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LONG HISTORY OF
OVERCOMING LIMITS
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Wayne Osborn
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Wikimedia Commons
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Star of the Republic Museum
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Historical Society of Canada
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PHYSICAL RESOURCES ARE VAST
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10,000 x
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10 Seconds of Sunlight
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= 1 Day of Humanity’s Energy Use
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1 Hour of Sunlight
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= 1 Year of Humanity’s Energy Use
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0.3% of Earth’s Land Area Could Power Humanity in 2030.
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Fresh Water
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Not Resource Limits
Innovation Limits
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Innovations Multiply Resource Access
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Moore’s Law for Solar PV
AMD
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Cost of Solar Power
CROSSOVER: TODAY - 2025
Michael Dawes
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Storage
Javier Gil
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Storage
Bensonuka
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IF WE CAN CRACK ENERGY…
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DESALINATION ENERGY
Atlaslin
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Bern@tUSDA
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Bern@tUSDA
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Innovations Reduce Resource Use
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Multiplier / Reducer: Agriculture
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LESS ENERGY PER CALORIE GROWN
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Boeing
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Not Just Land: Less Oil Use
1972 2002 2011 2030 (projected)0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Barr
els
of O
il Pe
r Per
son
Per Y
ear Barrels of Oil Per Person Per Year
Colfert
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iPhone vs. ENIAC
Michael O’Donnell
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Knowledge is a Replicator
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PROBLEM SOLVED?
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NO: A RACE
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CONSUMPTION VS
INNOVATION
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WINNING THE RACE
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R&D
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EDUCATION
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POVERTY REDUCTION
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TECHNOLOGY ACCEPTANCE
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FIX THE MARKET
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FIX MARKET FAILURES
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Terry Luns
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Marvin Greene
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Cleveland State University
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Cleveland State University
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Commons
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Brent Durken
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Decoupled Growth From Pollution
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Rules Not Resources
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NASA
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NASA
CFC Release (thousands of tons)
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Bob Baer
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THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(A WIDER VARIETY
THAN TODAY)
EXTERNALITY
THINGS WE CARE ABOUT
THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE
(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)
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(Improving the Market Algorithm)
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Tax the Bad, Not the Good
(Improve the Tax Algorithm)
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Income Tax Carbon Tax
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David Suzuki
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Pollution NOT
an inevitable outcome of
Growth
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Cleveland State University
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Brent Durken
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NASA
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NASA
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Not LimitsPolicy
Design of our EconomyPace of Innovation
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What Can We Do?
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1. Communicate
2. Participate
3. Innovate
4. Keep Hope
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Not Exhausted, Multiplies Other Resources