inner spirit holdings ltd. (cse: ish) initiating coverage: a leader in canada...
TRANSCRIPT
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA, CFA
Colin Tang, B.Com
November 28, 2019
© 2019 Fundamental Research Corp. “15+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” www.researchfrc.com
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Inner Spirit Holdings Ltd. (CSE: ISH) – Initiating Coverage: A Leader in Canada’s Cannabis Retail
Industry
Sector/Industry: Cannabis Retail Click here for more research on the company and to share your views
Market Data (as of November 28, 2019)
Current Price $0.10
Fair Value $0.40
Rating* BUY
Risk* 3
52 Week Range $0.07 - $0.30
Shares O/S 206,236,295
Market Cap $20.62 million
Current Yield N/A
P/E (forward) N/A
P/B 3.60x
YoY Return -52.38%
YoY CSE -44.50%
*see back of report for rating and risk definitions.
*$ denotes C$ unless otherwise specified.
Highlights ➢ Inner Spirit Holdings Ltd. (“company”, “Inner Spirit”) is a retail and
franchising company with retail dispensary brands called “Spiritleaf” and
“Watch It!”. The company boasts the first franchise business model
within the cannabis retail recreational space and is focused on growing
its Spiritleaf operations.
➢ The company has secured more than 100 cannabis franchise agreements
and is expected to be operating 44 Spiritleaf retail stores by the end of
2019. The company currently leads Canada’s cannabis retail
industry with 38 operating stores.
➢ Spiritleaf retail stores are highly rated by customers. Through Google
reviews, we found the weighted-average rating of Spiritleaf stores to
be 4.4/5, with a range of 3.9/5 to 5/5.
➢ It was estimated that consumer cannabis spending in Canada will
compound at an annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of nearly 45% from 2018
to 2024 – rising from $569 million to $5.2 billion over the period.
Provinces where the company operates retail stores are anticipated
to comprise approximately 74% of Canada’s legal cannabis market
by 2024.
➢ The company has a highly experienced management team and Board of
Directors. Most notably, Darren Bondar (Founder and CEO of Inner
Spirit) holds over 20 years of experience in the franchising and retail
space and was a runner-up for Entrepreneur of the Year in the 2019
Canadian Cannabis Awards competition.
Risks ➢ The company operates in a highly regulated industry subject to
governmental intervention. Additionally, the illicit cannabis market may
limit the ability of the legal cannabis market to gain market size.
➢ Poor-performing franchised-stores may adversely impact the company’s
brand image.
➢ The cannabis retail space in Canada is new and highly competitive.
➢ There is no guarantee that the company will be able to secure additional
licenses to operate additional retail stores. This will significantly impact
our valuation on the company.
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Company
Overview
Large Retail
Footprint
Inner Spirit Holdings Ltd. (“Inner Spirit”) was founded on March 16, 2017, and is a retail
and franchising company with retail dispensary brands called “Spiritleaf” and “Watch It!”.
In this report, we will be primarily focused on its cannabis retail brand (“Spiritleaf”)
as management has indicated a desire to spin-off operations of Watch It! imminently. Watch
It! is a brand involved in the sale of watches, sunglasses and related accessories.
Inner Spirit is the first retail cannabis company to be granted membership into the Canadian
Franchise Association (“CFA”) and boasts one of the first franchise business models within
the cannabis retail space. Additionally, the company is the first cannabis retail and franchise
company to complete an Initial Public Offering (“IPO”) in Canada – completing its IPO in
July 2018. The company’s goal is to create a large network of stores under its Spiritleaf
brand and become Canada’s leading and most trusted source of recreational cannabis.
Retail stores will be primarily franchised with select corporate-owned stores situated in
high-visibility locations in major centers to promote brand awareness. The company has
formed strategic partnerships with cannabis industry leaders such as HEXO (TSX: HEXO),
Tilray (NASDAQ: TLRY), Auxly Cannabis Group (TSXV: XLY) and High Times
Magazine. Details regarding these strategic partnerships will be discussed later below.
Inner Spirit currently has secured more than 100 cannabis retail franchise agreements
and, as of November 27, 2019, features a total of 38 franchised, corporate-owned and
retail partnership Spiritleaf cannabis stores. The 38 operating retail cannabis stores
consist of 30 franchised stores and eight corporate-owned stores across Canada. Across its
Spiritleaf retail network, management has noted that more than 400 people are employed.
Spiritleaf Retail Network Alberta British Columbia Saskatchewan Ontario
Franchised 24 4 1 1
Corporate 8 0 0 0
Total: 32 4 1 1
Source: Company
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Layout of
Spiritleaf
Retail Store
The following are images of a typical Spiritleaf retail store.
Layout of Spiritleaf Retail Stores
Source: Company
Management has stated expectations to be operating 44 Spiritleaf retail stores by the
end of 2019. The company has not disclosed how locations are selected for franchised
stores but noted that the geographic area of focus for corporate stores is in high-visibility
locations. In addition, the company has noted that primary provinces of focus are Alberta,
British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Ontario (rationale discussed later in the report).
Referencing the images above illustrating Spiritleaf retail stores, we believe that the
company has closely aligned its Spiritleaf brand image to its brick-and-mortar stores. We
found the décor and aesthetics of the Spiritleaf retail stores (shown above) to be well-
designed and aesthetically pleasing. As such, we believe that Spiritleaf retail stores are
likely to invoke a unique in-store customer experience.
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Spiritleaf
Retail Store
Ratings
Shown below, Spiritleaf has generated substantially positive customer reviews. From
performing a Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) search on Spiritleaf retail stores, we found, in
total, 27 Spiritleaf stores which had ratings ranging from 3.9/5 – 5/5. We found the
weighted-average rating of Spiritleaf stores to be 4.4/5. The large majority of reviews
cited (1) reasonable pricing, (2) great selection and (3) friendly staff members. This is
extremely upbeat and, we believe, outlines that the company is providing remarkable
customer service. Readers should note that with Google reviews, we are unable to
determine if the reviews are from actual customers or from friends/families/employees
(which could positively skew store ratings). Given that there are under 1,000 reviews across
all Spiritleaf stores, the number of reviews may not be sufficient enough to form a strong
judgment on Spiritleaf stores. Readers can refer to the image below for ratings of individual
Spiritleaf stores.
Google Reviews
Source: Google Reviews
Having discussed the typical store layout of a Spiritleaf retail store and reviews from
customers, we briefly outline what a franchise business model is, how Inner Spirit generates
revenue from its franchise stores, and the benefits and drawbacks of a franchise business
model (from the perspective of Inner Spirit).
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Franchise
Business
Model
A franchise, according to the CFA, is a working business relationship where a franchisor
(Inner Spirit) grants a license to a franchisee (a company or individual) to use the
franchisor’s trademark, brand and business operation system for an initial franchise fee. In
return, the franchisee generally provides a share of its revenue or income back to the
franchisor (called a royalty). As such, Inner Spirit’s franchise business model can be
visually represented as follows:
Franchise Business Model
Source: FRC
In Inner Spirit’s franchise business model, the company collects an upfront franchise
fee of $25,000 upon granting a license to the franchisee. The company generates a 5%
royalty on gross sales from franchised stores. In addition, the company collects 1% of
gross sales from franchised stores for the company’s advertising fund. The company’s
franchise business model is very similar to the franchise business model of other
companies. For example, according to Business Insider (“BI”), McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD)
charges an upfront franchise fee of US$45,000 and a 4% royalty on gross sales from
franchised stores.
Below, we outline the key benefits and disadvantages of this model.
Benefits of a Franchise Business Model
• Low Capital Expenditure (“CAPEX”) Requirements: CAPEX is incurred by the
franchisee when they establish their store front – Inner Spirit is not responsible for
costs related to building the franchisee’s store-front.
• Minimal Contingent Liabilities: The franchisee is responsible for the lease and
relevant contracts needed to operate their franchised store.
• Greater Speed to Market: Inner Spirit is able to expand operations more quickly
(as opposed to building out corporate stores) through working with franchisees.
• Ease of Operations: Franchising provides Inner Spirit with less daily oversight
requirements.
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Spiritleaf and
Canadian
Franchise
Association
Drawbacks of a Franchise Business Model
• Lack of Control: Inner Spirit has lack of control regarding how franchised stores
are representing the company’s brand. There is no guarantee that the franchisee will
be able to live up to the quality standards set out by the company or offer
exceptional customer service as required by the company. Management has
indicated that they have controls (such as site visits) to mitigate this risk.
• Challenges in Implementing Change: Changing business plans, operations, or
implementing innovations are tougher with franchised stores compared to corporate-
owned stores.
• Franchise-related Costs: Inner Spirit incurs costs related to creating a successful
franchise business plan, legal documents, marketing materials, franchisee
recruitment costs, operations manuals, etc. In addition, Inner Spirit must provide
training to franchisee employees and ongoing operational support.
Having outlined the potential benefits and drawbacks of a franchise business model, we
believe that benefits significantly offset the drawbacks, especially for companies such as
Inner Spirit, that are aggressively expanding their footprint. The cannabis retail space in
Canada is new and highly competitive – we suspect that speed to market is extremely
important to establishing a strong economic float in the cannabis retail space. It is our belief
that companies that are able to quickly establish retail stores are able to benefit from having
greater brand exposure. We view a franchise business model, as opposed to a traditional
retail business model, as a strong method to provide greater speed to market.
We now outline the investment and start-up capital required for a Spiritleaf franchised store
and compare it to the capital requirements of other franchise opportunities.
As mentioned, Inner Spirit is a member of the CFA – an online franchise directory that
provides franchise opportunities for potential franchisees. CFA markets itself as the most
comprehensive online directory of legitimate franchise business investments available. On
the website of CFA (www.cfa.ca), Inner Spirit is listed under the category “retail” and is
featured on top of the list of available retail franchise opportunities. Given that Inner
Spirit is featured on the top of the list of available retail franchise opportunities, we
deem that interested retail franchisees are more likely to view the franchise
opportunity presented by Inner Spirit as opposed to other franchise opportunities.
Management has outlined that individuals interested in acquiring a Spiritleaf franchise
license are initially qualified based on stringent financial and operating parameters.
Additional information regarding the qualification process was undisclosed by
management. The license grant rate – the number of licenses granted by the company to the
number of applications made by potential franchisees, was also undisclosed by the
company.
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Spiritleaf
Franchise
Costs
To operate a Spiritleaf franchised store, according to CFA, there is $200k - $300k in
start-up capital required and an additional $300k - $500k investment required (these
costs are on top of the initial franchise fee of $25,000). It is to our understanding that the
start-up capital requirement relates to equipment and operational costs, and that the
additional investment relates to ongoing costs required to ensure a going concern.
Spiritleaf Franchise Store Costs
Source: cfa.ca
We compare the costs required to enter into a franchise business agreement with Inner Spirit
to all other available retail franchise opportunities listed on the CFA (green highlights
cannabis franchise opportunities):
Retail Franchise Opportunities Listed on CFA
Source: cfa.ca, FRC
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The Retail
Cannabis
Franchise
Space
In total, there were 26 retail franchise opportunities listed on CFA, four of which were
cannabis retail franchise opportunities (Spiritleaf, Canna Cabana, ONE Cannabis
Group and Starbuds International Inc.). We are unable to provide insight as to whether
the costs to operate a Spiritleaf franchised store are reasonable compared to other cannabis
retail franchise opportunities – relevant data for costs from the other three cannabis retail
franchise store opportunities were unavailable. When compared amongst all retail
franchise store opportunities, Spiritleaf had a lower-than-average franchise fee, but
higher-than-average start-up capital and investment required.
Spiritleaf Cost Comparison
Source: FRC
Although it is useful to gauge the average costs required to operate a retail franchised store
to that of a Spiritleaf franchised store, it is important for readers to realize that different
types of retail stores (for example: jewelry, cut-flowers, clothing, etc.) all have vastly
different capital requirements. We believe the high capital requirements required (compared
to other retail franchise opportunities) to operate a Spiritleaf franchised store is reasonable
and symbolizes the company’s desire for franchisees to create a storefront that is able to
invoke a unique in-store customer experience. With that said, the large capital requirement
needed may deter interested parties who do not have such access to capital.
We now look more into Canna Cabana, ONE Cannabis Group, and Starbuds International
Inc., to gauge how well-positioned the company is compared to other cannabis retail
franchise opportunities.
Canna Cabana
Canna Cabana is a subsidiary company of High Tide Inc. (CSE: HITI), with, according to
their website (cannacabana.com), 23 operating retail stores in Alberta, three in Ontario and
one in Saskatchewan. Canna Cabana operates, in aggregate, 27 retail stores across
Canada. The split between franchised stores and corporate stores was undisclosed.
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Canna Cabana Geographic Footprint
Alberta Ontario Saskatchewan
Retail Stores 23 3 1 Source: cannacabana.com, FRC
Given that Canna Cabana mainly operates in Alberta, as does Spiritleaf, we believe that
Canna Cabana is a direct competitor to the company. Through using Google reviews, we
observed that Canna Cabana retail stores are also highly rated by customers. Shown below
are ratings of Canna Cabana retail stores we found through Google reviews:
Google Reviews for Canna Cabana Retail Stores
Source: Google Reviews
We found, in total, 25 Canna Cabana stores which had ratings ranging from 2.9/5 –
5/5. We deem the large variance in ratings to be concerning for Canna Cabana, as some
underperforming Canna Cabana stores could adversely affect the overall brand image of
Canna Cabana. Referencing Spiritleaf, we did not notice such a large variance in ratings
(refer to page four, which we outlined to be 3.9/5 – 5/5). We found the weighted-average
rating of Canna Cabana stores to be 4.1/5, which is lower than Spiritleaf’s of 4.4/5. The
large majority of positive reviews cited (1) reasonable pricing, (2) friendly staff and (3)
favorable store hours. Although Canna Cabana operates retail stores in similar
geographical regions to that of Spiritleaf, our interpretation, based off of customer
ratings, is that Spiritleaf stores are superior. Readers should note that with Google
reviews, we are unable to determine if the reviews are from actual customers or from
friends/families/employees (which could positively skew store ratings). Given that there
are over 1,400 reviews across all Canna Cabana stores, we believe the number of reviews
are sufficient enough to form an adequate judgment on Canna Cabana stores. For the
reader’s reference, the geographic footprint of Canna Cabana to that of Spiritleaf in the
province of Alberta (where the majority of retail stores of both Spiritleaf and Canna Cabana
are situated) is provided below.
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Alberta Footprint – Canna Cabana vs Spiritleaf
Canna Cabana Retail Stores Spiritleaf Retail Stores
Note: Taken on November 26, 2019
Source: Google Maps
ONE Cannabis Group
ONE Cannabis Group (“ONE Cannabis”) is a vertically integrated private cannabis operator
and franchisor with a Colorado cultivation facility that is currently operational. Although
the company has a franchise business model, we were unable to find operating retail stores
in Canada under ONE Cannabis. Therefore, it is unclear whether this company has
retail operations in Canada at the moment. As such, we do not believe ONE Cannabis is
an applicable competitor to the company.
Starbuds International Inc.
Starbuds International Inc. (“Starbuds”) is a private cannabis operator focused on creating
international recreational cannabis retail networks. As indicated by their website
(starbuds.co), Starbuds currently has three operating retail stores in British Columbia. The
split between franchised stores and corporate stores was undisclosed.
Starbuds Geographic Footprint
British Columbia
Retail Stores 3 Source: starbuds.co, FRC
Given the limited number of retail stores operated by Starbuds, we do not see
Starbuds as a strong competitor to the company. With that said, it was noted on their
website that 13 retail stores in Alberta, two retail stores in British Columbia, and one retail
store in Saskatchewan are currently “under construction” or “coming soon”. Although this
indicates that Starbuds is looking to ramp up the number of retail stores under operation, we
believe that they currently have a slower speed to market. Given this understanding, we
believe that Spiritleaf has a strong first mover advantage over Starbuds and greater
brand visibility.
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Overview of
the Cannabis
Retail Space
From our analysis on the cannabis franchise retail space, it is our belief that Spiritleaf
is extremely well-positioned. On this note, we take a step back and address the overall
cannabis retail space.
The Canadian cannabis retail space consist of private, public and government-run cannabis
stores. Inner Spirit notes the following public players:
The Canadian Cannabis Retail Space
Note: As of November 26, 2019. Numbers are in millions of C$ unless otherwise stated.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company, FRC
Through our research, we believe that the company has accurately outlined the public
Canadian cannabis retailers in the space. In addition to the public players above, there are
also governmental-run stores, private stores and other companies that have formed a
cannabis retail segment to complement their existing operations. For example:
• The B.C. Liquor Distribution Branch operates nine government-run cannabis stores
in British Columbia.
• The Donnelly Group (a private company) operates four cannabis stores in British
Columbia and one in Ontario.
• Alcanna (TSX: CLIQ), a private sector liquor retail operator, received a $138
million investment from Aurora Cannabis (TSX: ACB) in 2018, to operate retail
cannabis stores across Canada. On Alcanna’s retail cannabis brand website
(novacannabisstore.com), they listed 13 operating cannabis retail stores in Alberta.
As such, the overall cannabis retail space is highly competitive. We discuss notable public
pure-play cannabis retailers in more detail below.
Public Players in the Canadian Cannabis Retail Space
Source: FRC
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Choom
Holdings
Fire &
Flower
Meta Growth
YSS Corp.
Choom Holdings (CSE: CHOO / “Choom”): Choom is looking to build a footprint of 125
corporate owned retail stores in Canada. As indicated on their website (choom.ca),
Choom operates ten retail stores.
Choom Geographic Footprint
Ontario Alberta
Retail Stores 1 9 Source: choom.ca, FRC
Fire & Flower (TSX: FAF): Fire & Flower (“F&F”) is looking to build a footprint of 85
retail stores in Canada by January 2021. As indicated on their website
(fireandflower.com), F&F operates 33 retail stores.
Fire & Flower Geographic Footprint
Ontario Alberta Manitoba Saskatchewan Yukon
Retail Stores 2 22 1 7 1 Source: fireandflower.com, FRC
On August 2019, F&F received a strategic investment from Alimentation Couche-Tard
(TSX: ATD) that provides between $380 - $830 million of growth capital. In the
subscription agreement, it was indicated that Alimentation Couche-Tard has the right to
obtain a controlling interest in F&F. This leads us to speculate that pure-play cannabis
retailers may be potential mergers and acquisition (“M&A”) targets.
Meta Growth (TSXV: META): On November 1, 2019, National Access Cannabis
announced that they had changed their operating business name to “Meta Growth” and
additionally sold its medical cannabis clinics for $4 million in cash (use of proceeds to fund
its operation of retail stores). Meta Growth owns two retail cannabis brands called
“Newleaf” and “Meta”. As indicated on the websites of Newleaf and Meta, Meta
Growth operates 33 retail stores in total.
Meta Growth Geographic Footprint
Alberta Manitoba Saskatchewan
Retail Stores 23 9 1 Source: metagrowth.com, FRC
YSS Corp. (TSXV: YSS): YSS Corp. owns two retail cannabis brands called “YSS” and
“Sweet Tree Cannabis Co.” As indicated on the websites of YSS (ysscorp.ca) and Sweet
Tree cannabis Co. (sweettreecannabis.com), YSS operates 13 retail stores.
YSS Corp. Geographic Footprint
Alberta Saskatchewan
Retail Stores 12 1 Source: ysscorp.ca, sweettreecannabis.com, FRC
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Westleaf
High Tide
Westleaf (TSXV: WL): Westleaf owns a retail cannabis brand called “Prairie Records”. As
indicated on their website (prairierecords.ca), Westleaf operates four retail stores. On
November 8, 2019, Westleaf announced that they were merging with We Grow BC Ltd., a
cannabis producer with a cannabis product line called Qwest.
Westleaf Geographic Footprint
Saskatchewan Alberta
Retail Stores 3 1 Source: westleaf.com, FRC
High Tide (CSE: HITI): High Tide owns two retail cannabis brands called “Canna
Cabana” and “KushBar”. Readers can refer to page nine for our discussion on Canna
Cabana. KushBar is High Tide’s new retail cannabis brand, and according to their website
(mykushbar.com), operates three retail stores in Alberta. High Tide operates, in
aggregate, 30 retail stores across Alberta, Ontario and Saskatchewan.
High Tide Geographic Footprint
Alberta Ontario Saskatchewan
Retail Stores 26 3 1 The store count above incorporates Canna Cabana stores (refer to page nine for the number of Canna Cabana stores).
Source: cannacabana.com, mykushbar.com, FRC
The following illustrates the aggregate number of retail stores operated by the cannabis
retailers we have discussed.
The Retail Cannabis Landscape
Source: FRC
As the cannabis retail landscape is still in its infancy, we are currently unable to comment
on which retail cannabis brand is superior over the other – each cannabis retailer has a
unique store layout and brand image. Through our research, we believe that Spiritleaf,
Choom, F&F, and Canna Cabana had store layouts and promoted shopping experiences that
closely resembled the brand perception that they are trying to instill in customers.
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Ideal
Provinces to
Operate In
Readers should take note that Spiritleaf currently operates the largest number of
retail stores amongst other pure-play cannabis retailers. We believe this to be very
important to take into consideration, as a greater number of retail stores provides for greater
brand reach amongst customers. In total, we found that the cannabis retailers mentioned
operate, in total, 164 retail stores across five provinces and one territory. Readers may
notice that a large number of retail cannabis stores were situated in Alberta. This is
addressed in the following section.
According to Cannabis Compliance Inc., the following Canadian provinces/territories
follow a Crown Corporation model where the province/territory owns both the distribution
and retail stores (i.e. these provinces do not allow private cannabis retailers to operate):
Provinces/Territories that Prohibit Private Cannabis Retailers
• Quebec • New Brunswick
• Nova Scotia • Prince Edward Island
• Northwest Territories
This is followed by provinces/territories that allow private cannabis retailers to operate, in
addition to having their own provincial/territorial retail cannabis stores:
Split Retail System (Private and Government-owned Retail Cannabis Stores)
• British Columbia • Newfoundland and Labrador
• Yukon • Nunavut
Lastly, the following provinces/territories allow private cannabis retailers to operate and do
not operate their own provincial/territorial retail cannabis stores:
Private Retail System
• Ontario • Alberta
• Saskatchewan • Manitoba
Excluding British Columbia, Inner Spirit is focused in provinces/territories where
there is no competition from provincial/territorial cannabis stores. We believe this is a
good strategy – although the company operates against other cannabis, they are avoiding
provinces/territories that allow provincial/territorial cannabis stores. It is our belief that it is
difficult for companies to compete successfully against a government entity. Although the
company did not disclose why they do not currently have stores in Manitoba, we suspect
this is due to the low market size for cannabis in Manitoba (discussed later in the report).
According to various sources, a single company is only legally permitted to operate 75
stores in Ontario and eight stores in British Columbia. It is our expectation that the
company will operate up to these store limits over the long-term. Through our research, we
have not found any definitive information that would point to an increase in the store limits
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Establishing
an Online
Presence
Canadian
Cannabis
Market
mentioned above. In addition, in a press release dated November 13, 2019, the company
stated that they will resume franchise sales efforts in Saskatchewan. This announcement
came after the Saskatchewan Liquor and Gaming Authority (“SLGA”) announced on
October 29, 2019, that they will open up retail cannabis licensing in early 2020
(applications for cannabis retail licenses were previously closed off). Readers can refer to
our valuation section for our expectation on the number of retail stores that the company
plans to operate over the long-term.
In addition to the operation of retail stores, the company, on November 13, 2019, launched
an online retail sales platform in Saskatchewan. Residents of the province are now able to
purchase online at sk.spiritleaf.ca and Spiritleaf will arrange direct delivery of the product.
This e-commerce platform is to be used in other provinces as permitted. Although the
company is establishing an online presence, it is our understanding that this revenue
segment is not anticipated to form a material portion of overall revenues.
Next, we discuss the cannabis market and cannabis store density by province/territory.
In Canada, the percentage of cannabis users nationwide sat at 17.1% in Q3-2019, an
increase from 16.1% in Q2-2019. We believe the increase in the percentage of cannabis
users is attributed to easier access to cannabis nationwide. With the recent legalization of
edible cannabis products and alternative cannabis products, we expect Q4-2019 to show an
even greater percentage of cannabis users. In areas where the company operates, Alberta
(cannabis use: 18.8%), British Columbia (cannabis use: 20.4%) and Saskatchewan
(cannabis use: 17.2%) had cannabis use percentages higher than the national average. As
the majority of the company’s retail stores are in Alberta, this is a positive indication.
Shown below illustrates cannabis use in Q3-2019 by province/territory.
Source: Statistics Canada
Provided below are retail sales of cannabis by province/territory from October 2018 to June
2019.
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Cannabis
Store Density
Cannabis Store Sales
Source: CBC News
As shown, Alberta generated the greatest number of retail sales from October 2018 to June
2019 – Alberta accounted for 21.93% of retail sales in Canada over this period. As indicated
by CBC, the large number of private cannabis vendors in Alberta contributed to the sizeable
amount of cannabis store sales. Alberta currently has the highest number of retail cannabis
stores nationwide (over 300) and supersedes the province with the second-largest number of
retail cannabis stores (British Columbia at 157) (Source: Marijuana Business Daily).
Although Alberta had the greatest amount of retail sales, Alberta also had the fifth highest
cannabis store density of 2.44 per 100,000 population.
Note: Chart is as of June 6, 2019
Source: The Globe and Mail
This is visually represented below.
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Cannabis Retail Store Density in Canada
Note: Chart is as of June 6, 2019
Source: The Globe and Mail
Readers should note that the cannabis store density across provinces/territories is still
significantly lower than in the states of Oregon and Colorado, states that have a
cannabis store density of 14.02 and 9.49 per 100,000 residents, respectively (Source:
Marijuana Business Daily). Given that our research indicates Colorado to be one of the
most mature cannabis markets in the world, we believe that provinces will only be able to
sustain a long-term cannabis retail store density per 100,000 residents of up to 10. Noting
that the population of Alberta has been growing at a CAGR of approximately 2.30% from
2011 to 2019, and extrapolating this growth rate into the future, we believe that Alberta is
still able to sustainably add more cannabis retail stores. Our forecasted sustainable cannabis
retail store count for Alberta is outlined below.
FRC Forecast of Sustainable Number of Cannabis Stores in Alberta
2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Population
(in millions) 4.37 4.47 4.57 4.68 4.79 4.90
Sustainable
Store Count 437 447 457 468 479 490
Source: StatsCan, United Nations, FRC
Similar to Alberta, we believe that other provinces still have significant leeway to add more
cannabis retail stores.
Readers should note that we believe the state of Oregon to be currently oversaturated with
cannabis stores – our research has indicated that prices of cannabis in Oregon has dropped
more than 50% since legalization in 2014. As such, we suspect that a store density per
100,000 population nearing 14 as unsustainable.
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Ontario as a
Province for
Retailers to
Target
Cannabis Store Density of Select States
Source: Marijuana Business Daily
Readers should be aware that operating in provinces with a low store density is desirable, as
this implies lower competition. Given this understanding, we believe that operating in
provinces such as Ontario is a major focus for cannabis retailers going forward –
Ontario had a cannabis store density per 100,000 population of 0.14. With that said,
readers should be aware that each province faces a different process for acquiring the
relevant licenses to operate a retail store. Notably, in Ontario, licenses are currently awarded
through a lottery system. At this time, we are not privy to when a new lottery system for
retail licenses will be held in Ontario. Although Ontario is currently an extremely attractive
province to operate cannabis retail stores in, it is immensely harder (compared to other
provinces/territories) to gain the licenses required to operate a cannabis retail store in
Ontario for the reason mentioned above. The following are recent developments in regard to
the cannabis market in Ontario:
• On October 30, 2019, an open letter was sent to Ontario Premier Doug Ford to
significantly increase the number of cannabis retail stores in Ontario.
• On November 6, 2019, the Ontario government announced plans to amend
legislation to allow retail stores to sell cannabis products online for in-store pick. In
addition, it was announced that licensed products (“LP”) will be able to establish
retail storefronts at their production sites.
• On November 21, 2019, BNN Bloomberg reported that the Ontario government is
considering a plan that would abandon the lottery system and move towards an open
allocation system for issuing cannabis retail licenses. No decisions have currently
been finalized.
Given the extremely low cannabis store density in Ontario and the expectation that Ontario
is poised to comprise a significant portion of Canada’s legal cannabis market (discussed
further below), the recent developments noted above are extremely positive for cannabis
retailers who want a portion of Ontario’s lucrative cannabis market.
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Future
Cannabis
Demand in
Canada
New Wave of
Cannabis
Products to
Help Drive
Sales
Next, we discuss future cannabis demand in Canada.
According to a report by U.S. research company ArcView Market Research and BDS
Analytics, it was estimated that consumer cannabis spending in Canada is forecasted
to witness a CAGR of nearly 45% from 2018 to 2024 – rising from $569 million to $5.2
billion. This is an extremely strong growth rate and outlines the huge potential for cannabis
in Canada. A graph depicting this is shown below.
Taken from Global News, Source: ArcView Market Research/BDS Analytics
In addition, it is estimated that Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan
(provinces where the company operates retail cannabis stores) will make up
approximately 74% of Canada’s legal cannabis market by 2024. Ontario by itself is
expected to comprise 38% of Canada’s legal cannabis market by 2024. As such,
establishing retail operations in Ontario is imperative to becoming a leading cannabis
retailer in Canada. Projections of the Canadian cannabis market by province is provided
below.
Taken from Global News, Source: ArcView Market Research/BDS Analytics
Given the recent legalization of cannabis edibles and alternative cannabis products on
October 17, 2019, Inner Spirit is now able to offer a greater range of cannabis products at its
stores for sale to customers. The following outlines the classes of cannabis that can now be
sold in Canada:
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Authorized Classes of Cannabis
Before October 17, 2019 After October 17, 2019
Dried cannabis Dried cannabis
Cannabis oil Cannabis oil
Fresh cannabis Fresh cannabis
Cannabis plants Cannabis plants
Cannabis plant seeds Cannabis plant seeds
Edible cannabis
Cannabis extracts
Cannabis topicals Source: osler.com, FRC
As such, in addition to the forecasted cannabis market by ArcView Market Research
and BDS Analytics (which we believe to not have considered the new authorized
classes of cannabis), Inner Spirit has exposure to the Canadian market for edibles and
alternative cannabis products, which has a forecasted annual demand of $2.7 billion
(Source: Deloitte). With that said, visibility regarding the list of approved cannabis
products and the availability of cannabis edibles and alternative cannabis products (i.e. the
amount of supply) is uncertain. Although we urge readers to view the current annual
demand for cannabis edibles and alternative cannabis products with skepticism, this new
wave of legalization is expected to materially increase the sales potential of Spiritleaf stores.
Taken from a corporate presentation by AgraFlora Organics International Inc. (CSE:
AGRA), the following visually illustrates the estimated annual market demand for cannabis
edibles and alternative cannabis products.
Market Demand for Cannabis Edibles and Alternative Cannabis Products
Source: AgraFlora Organics International Inc.
Next, we touch on strategic partnerships, collaborations and investments with cannabis
industry leaders.
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Strategic
Partnerships
The company has developed several strategic partnerships with cannabis industry leaders
such as HEXO, Tilray, Auxly Cannabis Group and High Times Magazine. These
partnerships are briefly outlined below:
• HEXO (TSX: HEXO): HEXO currently holds approximately 8% of the
outstanding common shares of Inner Spirit. The strategic partnership includes the
retail distribution of Up Cannabis products (a brand owned by HEXO) and the
creation of Up Cannabis-branded customer lounges at select Spiritleaf stores.
• Tilray (NASDAQ: TLRY): Tilray currently holds approximately 9% of the
outstanding common shares of Inner Spirit. The strategic partnership includes the
retail distribution of High Park products (Tilray’s subsidiary that owns a number of
cannabis brands).
• Auxly (TSXV: XLY): Auxly currently holds approximately 13% of the outstanding
common shares of Inner Spirit. The strategic partnership includes collaboration on
retail initiatives, such as in-store marketing, branding, etc.
• High Times Magazine: This strategic partnership includes a license for Inner Spirit
to distribute and sell High Times magazines in Spiritleaf stores.
We deem the partnerships above as value-added to the company’s operation of retail stores
as it increases the cannabis product diversity at Spiritleaf retail stores. Shown below are
some of the company’s retail partner brands.
Inner Spirit Partner Brands
Source: Company
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Management
Overview
In addition to the number of partner brands that can be found at a Spiritleaf retail stores, the
company has been developing in-house brands such as Ruby, Prairie Flower and Stone
Selects to retail through the company’s network of stores. These products will be produced
by specifically chosen partners and white-labeled for Spiritleaf. These initial roster of in-
house brands are shown below.
Company In-House Brands
Source: Company
Information regarding product logistics was undisclosed by the company.
A discussion on the company’s management and board of directors is provided below.
The company’s board of directors has six members, four of whom are independent.
Directors and Executive Officers currently own 43.29 million, or 20.99%, of the common
shares outstanding.
Share Ownership Table
Name Position Shares Owned % of Shares
Owned
Darren Bondar President, CEO and
Director 15,336,000 7.44%
Christopher Gulka CFO and Director 450,000 0.21%
David Margolus Independent
Director 484,000 0.23%
Jeff Tung Independent
Director 25,941,177* 12.58%
Larry Wosk Independent
Director 0 0.00%
Craig Steinberg Independent
Director 1,077,500 0.52%
Total 43,288,677 20.99%
*These shares are owned by Auxly Cannabis Group Inc, a company where Mr. Tung is currently the COO of.
Source: Company
The Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”), Darren Bondar, owns 7.44% of the common shares
outstanding of the company. Mr. Bondar was nominated and received runner-up
recognition for Entrepreneur of the Year at the 2019 Canadian Cannabis Awards
(“CCA”) Gala on November 8, 2019. In addition, Mr. Bondar has extensive experience
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in managing franchise stores and has been in the retail and franchising business since
1999.
The biographies of management and the board of directors, provided by the company,
follows:
Darren Bondar, MBA – CEO, President and Director
Mr. Bondar is the President and CEO of Inner Spirit Holdings Ltd. and the company is led
by his strategic planning, determination and creativity – not just for thinking outside the
box, but for creating a whole new box! With an uncanny knack for surrounding himself
with the best and the brightest, Darren has a proven executive management track record and
over 20 years’ experience driving sales growth in both the retail and franchise industries. He
has been recognized with multiple industry awards including numerous Canadian franchise
awards of excellence, The Alberta School of Business retail awards and a Top 40 under 40.
He received his Bachelor of Arts from Western Ontario University and his MBA from the
University of Alberta.
Christopher Gulka – CFO and Director
Christopher sits on our Board of Directors and works for our company as Chief Financial
Officer. Christopher is a CPA and CFA with over 26 years of business experience. He has
sat as President of Working Capital Corporation since 1999 and is a former financial analyst
at the Alberta Securities Commission. In addition, Christopher founded and was the CFO
and a Director of Grunewahl Organics Ltd, ACMPR applicant grower, which became
Sugarbud Craft Growers. He was the CFO and a Director of EXMceuticals, an international
cannabis grower in Africa with licensed cannabis research facilities in Portugal. He was also
CFO and Director of Passport Energy Ltd., and the CFO of Rochester Energy Corp.
Christopher brings meticulous attention to detail, a high level of oversight and a thorough
understanding of IFRS to ensure accurate financial reporting.
David B. Margolus – Independent Director
Counsel to, and former Managing Partner of Witten LLP, David served on the boards of the
Edmonton Regional Airports Authority and TSX-listed Liquor Stores N.A. Ltd.,
PowerComm Inc. and the XS Cargo Income Fund. He holds a Bachelor of Arts and Law
Degree from the University of Alberta and is a member of the Institute of Corporate
Directors.
Jeff Tung, CFA – Independent Director
Jeff is CFO & COO of Auxly Cannabis Group, Canada’s leading cannabis investment
company. Prior to joining Auxly, Jeff was the co-founder of CPS Management Partners,
where he led the acquisition of multiple businesses in the insurance administration industry.
Jeff has managed more than USD $3 billion of deals in the Telecom, Banking, Insurance
and Technology industries. Jeff holds an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business,
graduating at the top of his class as well as a Bachelor of Computer Engineering from UBC.
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Financials
Larry Wosk – Independent Director
Larry has been lecturing at the Sauder School of Business at UBC for over 15 years. His
areas of concentration are strategic management, international business, real estate, and
marketing. Larry commenced his teaching career after working for over 27 years in senior
management and as President and Chief Executive Officer in several industries including,
retailing, real estate development, hospitality and consulting. During that time, he ran
several companies, the largest of which had over 1,000 employees.
Craig Steinberg – Independent Director
Craig has over 10 years of experience as a private mortgage banker and corporate counsel to
a private lender and was most recently a partner in Miller Thomson LLP’s banking and real
estate group. He is a member of the Law Society of Alberta, Canadian Bar Association and
Real Estate Council of Alberta. Craig holds a Bachelor of Arts from Queens University,
Bachelor of Laws from Western University and a CSA/PDO from the Canadian Securities
Institute.
In 2018, the company generated revenue of $5.79 million – a 98.86% increase from revenue
generated from incorporation (March 16, 2017) to December 31, 2017 (of $2.91 million).
For the nine months (“9M”) ended September 30, 2019, the company reported $20.86
million in system-wide retail sales (“SWS”) – a 233.80% year-over-year (“YoY”) increase.
Readers should note that SWS refer to the sum of revenue generated by franchised and
corporate-owned stores. From $20.86 million in system-wide retail sales, the company
reported $7.02 million in revenue – a 85.73% YoY increase. The increase in revenue YoY
was primarily driven by strong growth in revenue from franchised stores.
2018 (9M) 2019 (9M)
SWS $6,249,693 $20,861,722
Revenue $3,779,926 $7,020,616 Source: Company, FRC
For Q3-2019, the company reported $10.78 million in system-wide retail sales, a YoY
increase of 374.86% and a quarter-over-quarter (“QoQ”) increase of 61.32%. From $10.78
million in system-wide retail sales, the company reported $3.99 million in revenue – a
158.60% YoY increase and a 124.77% QoQ increase. For Q3-2019, 23.17% of revenue
were generated from Watch It! This compares to 54.79% for Q2-2019.
Q3-2018 Q2-2019 Q3-2019
SWS $2,270,798 $6,684,484 $10,783,152
Revenue $1,544,779 $1,775,881 $3,991,640 Source: Company, FRC
Based on historical SWS and our estimates, we believe that each Spiritleaf store generates
revenue of $1.20 million per annum. Using an industry average (specialty retail average)
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operating profit margin of 11.20%, we estimate operating profit of $0.13 million.
Considering that a franchisee contributes 6% of its gross sales to the company and an
upfront CAPEX of $0.30 million, we believe that the return on investment (“ROI”) for a
franchisee is 20.80%. We believe this to be an attractive ROI.
The company reported gross margin of 50.02% for the first 9M of 2019, an increase from a
gross margin of 45.30% for the first 9M of 2018. The improvement in gross margin was due
to strong growth in royalties revenue – a revenue source which does not incur cost of goods
sold (“COGS”). Historical margins are shown below.
Source: Company, FRC
The company reported selling, general and administrative (“SG&A”) expenses of $7.62
million for the first 9M of 2019 – a 71.61% YoY increase. In addition, the company
reported SG&A expenses of $2.39 million for Q3-2019, compared to $1.71 million for Q3-
2018 – a 39.53% YoY increase. The increase in SG&A expenses were largely driven by the
company’s continued growth and expansion into the retail cannabis industry. This includes
hiring retail, managerial, and administrative staff to support growth of the company. With
that said, this was slightly offset by lower SG&A expenses from the company’s Watch It!
division. Although SG&A expenses increased materially compared to prior quarters, the
company’s EBITDA, EBIT, and net margins improved due to stronger revenue (with the
exception of net margin for Q3-2019 compared to Q3-2018, which deteriorated due to
unrealized loss on marketable securities).
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Source: Company, FRC
Free cash flows (“FCF”) were -$12.40 million for the first 9M of 2019, compared to -$2.64
million for the first 9M of 2018. The deterioration in FCFs YoY was primarily driven by
cash outlays for the acquisition of store permits and investments in property, plant and
equipment (“PPE”). Cash flows from financing were $12.92 million for the first 9M of
2019, compared to $6.31 million for the first 9M of 2018. This was primarily due to the
issuance of $10 million in convertible debentures. These debentures were issued in June
2019, have a three-year maturity (June 2022) and a 12% coupon rate per annum paid in
arrears. Additionally, these debentures have an exercise price of $0.25 per share.
Source: Company, FRC
At the end of Q3-2019, the company reported a cash position of $3.89 million, working
capital of $4.66 million, and a current ratio of 2.09x. The company’s debt is primarily
attributed to convertible debentures.
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Valuation
Source: Company, FRC
Stock Options and Warrants: We estimate that the company has 18.84 million stock
options (weighted average exercise price of $0.16) and 50.40 million warrants (weighted
average exercise price of $0.27). Currently, 8.14 million stock options and 1.15 million
warrants are in the money. The company will be able to raise up to $0.93 million if all the in
the money options and warrants are exercised.
Our valuation on Inner Spirit is discussed below.
Store Count Forecasts – Spiritleaf
Our store count forecast for Spiritleaf through to 2024 is presented below:
Store Count Forecasts for Spiritleaf
Source: FRC
In our discussions with management, they have provided a short-term store count forecast
of 44 by the end of 2019. We believe their forecast is reasonable and we have incorporated
it into our store count forecast for 2019. Other assumptions include:
• The company will operate at the store count limit for Ontario (of 75) and
British Columbia (of 8) over the long-term. In addition, Spiritleaf stores in British
Columbia and Ontario will all consist of franchised stores.
• Given the small population of Saskatchewan (Saskatchewan has a population of
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1.17 million) and a resultingly small cannabis market size (which ArcView Market
Research and BDS Analytics estimated to be $180.4 million by 2024), we have
nominally increased the number of Spiritleaf stores in Saskatchewan per year.
• An article by the Calgary Herald published on October 16, 2019, noted that Dave
Berry (Vice-President of Regulation for the Alberta Gaming, Liquor & Cannabis)
predicted 500 stores in Alberta by 2021 (implied store density of 11.19 – higher than
our belief of a sustainable store density of 10). Given that there are currently
approximately 300 retail stores in Alberta, this would imply an additional 200 stores
in one years’ time – a 66.67% annual growth rate. As such, we have grown the
number of franchised and corporate stores of Spiritleaf in Alberta by
approximately 67% up until 2021. From there on, we have decreased the
growth rate per year dramatically.
To conclude, by 2024, we expect the company to be operating 147 Spiritleaf franchised
stores and 29 Spiritleaf corporate stores. This would result in a total of 176 cannabis
retail stores operating under the company’s umbrella by 2024.
Store Count Forecasts – Watch It!
We have modelled Watch It! to retain current store levels for 2019 (which consists of six
corporate stores and six franchised stores). Due to our expectation of Watch It! being spun-
off, we have decreased the store count to zero from 2020 onwards.
Revenue Forecast
Our revenue forecast for Inner Spirit through to 2024 is presented below.
First, we outline our revenue forecasts for Spiritleaf:
Revenue Forecast for Spiritleaf
Source: FRC
The following are our revenue assumptions for Spiritleaf:
• Store-wide sales (“SWS”) of $1.20 million per store. The company reported
system-wide retail stores of $9.04 million for Q3-2019 through the operation of 33
retail stores (implied annualized SWS of $1.10 million per retail store). We have
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revised this slightly higher to account for the fact that not all retail stores were
operational starting Q3-2019.
• Royalties and advertising to consist 6% of the SWS generated from franchisees.
This assumption is in-line with the company’s franchise business model.
• $45,000 in millwork per additional franchised store. Millwork consist of
woodwork services provided to Spiritleaf franchised stores prior to opening.
• $65,000 in supply and other revenue per annum per franchised store.
Management has indicated that “supply and other revenue” refers to accessories and
supplies to franchise store (i.e. miscellaneous supplies). This source of revenue is
expected to be recurring.
• $25,000 in franchise fee revenue per additional franchised store. This is in-line
with the company’s franchise business model.
• A revenue per store growth rate of 3% per year.
Our current 2024 revenue forecast for Spiritleaf reasonably assumes that Inner Spirit
will capture <5% market share of the Canadian cannabis market.
Second, we outline our revenue forecast for Watch It!.
Revenue Forecast for Watch It!
Source: FRC
Our consolidated income statement forecasts for Inner Spirit through to 2024 are presented
below.
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Source: FRC
In addition to the assumptions made to revenue, we have assumed a long-term EBITDA
margin of approximately 21%. This is higher than the specialty retail industry average of
13.40% due to the fact that royalties revenue from franchised stores do not incur COGS.
We have assumed CAPEX required for a corporate store to be $0.30 million. Readers can
refer to page seven for the start-up capital required for a Spiritleaf store.
DCF Valuation
Our DCF valuation on Inner Spirit’s shares is $0.45. Our models are summarized below.
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Source: FRC
For our discount rate, we utilized a weighted average cost of capital (“WACC”) of 12.67%.
Industry-relevant cost of equity was used as well as a cost of debt that reflects the average
rate of long-term corporate debt. An equity risk premium has also been added to the WACC
to reflect additional risk given the uncertainty regarding attaining retail licenses in Ontario,
as well as unforeseeable restrictions to the sale of cannabis edibles and alternative cannabis
products that the government of Canada may impose. As we have assumed the spin-off of
Watch It! by the end of 2019, we estimate Watch It! should be valued at $6.71 million
based on an Enterprise Value to Revenue (“EV/R”) multiple of 1.80x. We have used the
multiple of the specialty retail industry, discussed below.
Comparables Valuation
The following table shows our comparables valuation based on our expected revenue and
EBITDA estimates in 2024. The values have been discounted back to the present at our
above WACC of 12.67%. As shown below, our valuation on Inner Spirit is $0.30 based on
an average EV/R of 1.80x, and $0.44 per share based on an Enterprise Value to EBITDA
(“EV/EBITDA”) ratio of 13.30x. In our comparables valuation, we opted to use multiples
of the specialty retail industry. Although the company is a franchise business, we believe a
significant portion of their revenue are to be derived from corporate-owned stores.
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Risks
Source: FRC
After reviewing Inner Spirit’s business, the quality of the management team, their
execution plan, and our valuation models, we are initiating coverage on Inner Spirit
with a BUY rating and a fair value estimate of $0.40 per share (average of our three
models).
We believe the company is exposed to the following risks (list is non-exhaustive):
➢ There is no guarantee that the company will be able to successfully manage its
franchised stores.
➢ The company operates in a highly regulated industry subject to governmental
intervention. The existence and health of the illicit cannabis market may limit the
ability of the legal cannabis market to gain market size.
➢ There is no guarantee that the company will be able to secure more licenses to
operate additional retail stores. This is especially true in Ontario, a province that
awards licenses on a lottery system.
➢ The cannabis retail space in Canada is new and highly competitive.
➢ Poor-performing franchised-stores may adversely impact the company’s brand
image.
➢ With a new industry, there remains concerns around product supply and risks around
product call.
➢ Access to capital and share dilution.
We are initiating coverage with a risk rating of 3 (Average Risk).
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Appendix
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Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Buy – Annual expected rate of return exceeds 12% or the expected return is commensurate with risk
Hold – Annual expected rate of return is between 5% and 12%
Sell – Annual expected rate of return is below 5% or the expected return is not commensurate with risk Suspended or Rating N/A— Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. Risk Rating Scale:
1 (Low Risk) - The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated
industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital
structure is conservative with little or no debt.
2 (Below Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less
sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of
debt.
3 (Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are
sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry
averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
4 (Speculative) - The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a
turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.
5 (Highly Speculative) - The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products.
Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues, and may rely on external funding. These stocks are considered highly speculative.
Disclaimers and Disclosure
The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst about this company and industry. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates
and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. The analyst and Fundamental Research Corp. “FRC” do not
own any shares of the subject company, do not make a market or offer shares for sale of the subject company, and do not have any investment banking business with
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