infrastructure needs: north dakota's county, township, & tribal roads & bridges:...
DESCRIPTION
UGPTI Director Denver Tolliver presented a draft report on the infrastructure needs of North Dakota’s county, township and tribal roads and bridges for the next 20 years. The presentation provided highlights from the full report.TRANSCRIPT
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Infrastructure Needs:North Dakota’s County, Township, & Tribal Roads
& Bridges2015-2034
July 8, 2014
Upper Great Plains Transportation InstituteNorth Dakota State University
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Contents
• History/purpose of road studies• Data collection/field studies• Major factors influencing results• Analysis procedures/models• Results and distributions of impacts
– Region– Time period
• Next steps
Slide 2
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Road Infrastructure Studies• 2010 study: UGPTI estimated road
investment needs for the 2011 session– 21,500 new wells & increased ag.
production
• 2012 study: updated investment needs– 46,000 new wells, ag. production, & initial
bridge study
• Current study: more comprehensive data– Higher roadway costs, ag. production, &
60,000 new wells
Slide 3
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Study Horizon• 20 year time frame• Traffic and investment needs
estimated annually• Results summarized by:
– Biennium– Region
• Detailed results (by)– County– Jurisdiction
Slide 4
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pg. 5
Key Factors in Road Study (1)Oil and Gas Agriculture
Number of wells Cultivated acres
Well locations Crop mix
Production rate/curve Yield
Inputs/outputs Crop densitiesGathering pipeline
Elevator network
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Key Factors in Road Study (2)
Slide 6
Traffic Road
Truck trips Surface type
Truck axles/weights Width & design
ESALs Age & condition
Avg. Daily Traffic Soil
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pg. 7
Data Sources (1)
Oil production ND Oil & Gas Division
Pipeline/transload network
ND Pipeline Authority
Base road network NDDOT GIS Hub
Crop production USDA-NASS
Elevator demand ND PSC
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pg. 8
Data Sources (2)Traffic Vehicle counts and
classificationsSurveys/elevator reports
Paved road condition Pathways/surveys
Paved road structure Falling Weight Deflector
Ground Penetrating Radar
Unpaved roads Surveys
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2013
Slide 9
1000+ counts 670 classifications
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Pavement Data Collection
• Condition data– NDDOT Pathway van– Summer/fall 2013– 4,786 miles of paved county roads
• Pavement and shoulder width data – Scaled from video images – 4500 miles
Slide 10
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Slide 11
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Pavement Data Collection• Non-destructive testing - verify prior estimates on subgrade
strength– Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) and Ground
Penetrating Radar (GPR)– Western ND – all rural pavements not recently improved,
not under construction, and not in failure state (785 mi)– Eastern ND – selected based on agricultural production
facilities and other major traffic generators (734 mi)
Slide 12
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Modeled Movements
• Agriculture– Wheat (including durum), corn, soybeans,
barley, canola, sunflowers, sugar beets, potatoes, & beans
– Fertilizer movements– Transshipments
• Oil Exploration/Production– Freshwater, sand, equipment, supplies,
pipe, outbound saltwater, & outbound crude oil
Slide 13
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Agriculture Production Forecasts• Production data: ND-NASS
• Production estimated at township level• Elevator and plant demands from
NDPSC and industry groups• Forecasts of future production, yield
and mix derived from multiple sources
– USDA/NASS – NDSU/Extension– Industry
Slide 14
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Oil Development• 2,300 truck trips per new well (drilling
related)– 3 million gallons of freshwater– 4 million pounds of sand
• Initial production (IP) rate varies by county• Outbound oil to transload locations
– Base year: 67% truck, 33% pipe– 2024: 20% truck, 80% pipe, – 2,400 new miles of gathering pipeline/year
Slide 15
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Forecasting/Modeling Process
Slide 16
Trips generated Trips originated or terminated
E.g., wells and farms
Trips attracted Rail & pipeline transfer facilities
Grain elevators
Routes taken Fastest path
Truck trips: segment Oil-related, ag.-related, other
Calibration Traffic data
Truck types and loads Annual ESALs
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Oil Exploration Traffic Projections
Slide 17
Example of predicted traffic flows over road network
Crude oil movements
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Crop Movement Projections - Wheat
Slide 18
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Unpaved Road Analysis
• Unpaved road miles grouped by traffic volume categories
• “Normal” practices established for each county based upon traffic observations and reported maintenance practices
• For traffic volumes above normal levels responses for oil impacted roads used to establish upper categories of maintenance
Slide 19
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Unpaved Improvement Types
• Traffic Category Improvement– Low: low volume average– Baseline: county average– Elevated: county average increased by
50%– Moderate: county average increased by
100%– High: county average increased by 150%,
dust suppressant– Very high: county average increased by
200%, dust suppressant
Slide 20
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To Pave or Not?
• Conversion of gravel roads to hot mix asphalt (HMA) not directly considered, except for highest traffic roads
• Needs for the significantly increased gravel maintenance may be sufficient for paving of some road segments
• Surface type choice left to county– Reflect practices and local issues– Coordination with an overall planning
effort
Slide 21
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Life Cycle Cost Comparison
Slide 22
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Slide 23
Unpaved Road Investment Needs (millions)Period Statewide Oil Patch Non-Oil2015-2016 $548.0 $299.4 $248.6 2017-2018 $547.9 $299.2 $248.7 2019-2020 $547.5 $298.6 $248.9 2021-2022 $545.6 $296.6 $249.0 2023-2024 $541.9 $292.7 $249.2 2025-2034 $2,667.5 $1,422.9 $1,244.6 2015-2034 $5,398.4 $2,909.4 $2,489.0
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Paved Road Analysis Steps
• AASHTO 1993 Design Guide• Predict year & type of improvement• Improvement threshold based on
pavement condition• Year of improvement based on:
– Existing structural capacity– Existing condition– Forecasted ESALs
Slide 24
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pg. 25
0.645
1
1.47
2.09
2.89
Single Axle Load in Thousand Pounds16 18 20 22 24
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
ESAL Factors: Single Axle
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Paved Road Improvements/Maint.• Improvement type
– Overlay– Sliver widening– Reconstruction– Mine & blend
• Normal maintenance– Chip seals– Crack sealing and patching– Other
Slide 26
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Paved Road Improvement Criteria
• Reconstruction – Condition and traffic volume– Subgrade modulus– Rutting
• Mine & Blend – Condition and traffic volume– Widening needed but thin/weak base
• Overlay– Pavement condition
Slide 27
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pg. 28
Pavement Serviceability Rating (PSR)
PSR Range General Rating
5 to 4 Very Good
4 to 3 Good
3 to 2 Fair
2 to 1 Poor
1 to 0 Very Poor
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Slide 29
Effects of Soil Support
Resilient Modulus (thousand psi)4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
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pg. 30
Paved Road Improvements
Type Miles Percent
Resurface 5,005 88.1%
Reconstruct 253 4.5%
Mine/Blend 219 3.9%
Widen 201 3.5%
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pg. 31
Paved Road Investment Needs (millions)Period Statewide Oil Patch Non-Oil
2015-2016 $377 $186 $191 2017-2018 $323 $120 $203 2019-2020 $285 $158 $127 2021-2022 $236 $133 $103 2023-2024 $138 $52 $86 2025-2034 $1,326 $513 $812 2015-2034 $2,685 $1,162 $1,522
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Bridge Analysis
• NBI: county and local• Open bridges (other than culverts):
2,556• Not considered: recently replaced or
minimum maintenance roads• Improvements considered:
replacement or rehabilitation• Maintenance
Slide 32
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Bridges Costs (1)
• Unit cost model– Based on 2011-2014 NDDOT bid reports– Discussed with NDDOT & counties– Includes approach roadway, engineering,
etc.
• Replacement cost projections:– Bridges: $250-$275/sf. deck area– Culverts: $400,000-$600,000 /project
Slide 33
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Bridges Costs (2)
• Rehabilitation– Deck widening 50% replacement
cost– Deck replacement 45% replacement
cost• Preventive maintenance
– Annualized maintenance cost $0.24 per sq. ft./year
– $0.29 per sq. ft. deck washing/sealing
Slide 34
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Bridge Investment Needs
• 2015-2034: $327 million• 77% of costs for replacements• Backlog of 480+ bridges• Backlog spread over 5 biennia• Approx. $70 million per biennium
Slide 35
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High Traffic Roadways
• Consideration of converting very high traffic (500+ trucks/day)gravel miles to asphalt
• 37 miles @ $1.5 million/mile = $58M
Slide 36
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Summary Compilation
Slide 37
Category 2014 Dollars
2015-2016 Biennium
Gravel Roadway Needs $548M
Paved Roadway Needs $377M
Gravel to Pavement Option
$58M
Total Roadway Needs (excluding bridges) $983M
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Next Steps• Feedback from Legislature,
NDDOT, and counties• Written report/documentation• Maps and data tables posted on
UGPTI webpage• Additional study requests
Slide 38
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Questions?Denver Tolliver701-231-7190
Full Report: Spotlight Section atwww.ugpti.org/