Informing targeted adaptation and mitigation investments for long term livestock sector

development in Africa

Abdou Fall

9th Conference of Ministers Responsible for Livestock/Animal Resources in Africa, Abidjan, 16-19 April 2013

Outline

Background

Impact of climate change on livestock systems

Impact of livestock on climate change

Approaches to adaptation

Approaches to mitigation

Conclusions

– Livestock production systems in Africa are changing rapidly and there are large numbers of people to feed with shrinking natural resource base

– Lots of drivers of future changes of livestock systems:

– Population/ Urbanization

– Growth in demand

– Competition for natural resources

– Climate change: warmer and more variable

Background

Background

IPCC (2007), Climate change projections, Africa

Very likely increase in temperature, above global means;

Rainfall likely to decrease in Northern Africa and increase in East Africa; inconsistent projections in the Sahel (drier parts and wetter parts)

Extreme events (very likely dry spells and flooding)

BackgroundRegions in Africa that will be most affected by climate change are places with large numbers of vulnerable poor people that depend on livestock as a key livelihood strategy

ILRI has worked in the past:

– To identify how are these regions likely to change

– To identify the magnitudes of the expected impacts on livestock systems

This has informed the design and pilot testing of targeted adaptation an mitigation approaches framed in relation to vulnerability and risk management. 5

Why is climate change so important to poor countries?

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

year

per

cen

tag

e

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

rainfall variation around the mean

GDP growth

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

year

per

cen

tag

e

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

rainfall variation around the mean

GDP growth

de Jong (2005), World Bank (2005)

Ethiopia: Rainfall Variability and Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Impact of climate change on livestock and livestock systems

• Will have important impacts at system level which are poorly understood

• Specific livestock system components that will be affected include:

• Feed and water availability

• Disease distribution

• Adaptation and survival of livestock

Climate change impacts on livestock and livestock systems

Feed quantity, quality: Changes in land use systems, primary productivity,

species composition and quality of the materials

• Tradeoffs – conservation agriculture, feed, fuel

• In semi-arid areas – importance of feed from food crop failures

National Production

Mixed rainfed temperate

Mixed rainfed humid

Mixed rainfed arid

2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050

Burundi 9 9 14 18 -2 -9 - -

Kenya 15 18 33 46 -5 -10 -1 -8Rwanda 11 15 13 19 5 4 1 3

Tanzania -3 -8 7 9 -2 -6 -5 -11

Uganda -2 -9 5 3 -5 -13 -1 -6

There may be winners as well as losers …

Simulated percentage pasture production changes to 2030 and 2050, by country and system

Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenarios

Thornton et al. (2010)

WinnersLosers

Animal Diseases and Climate Change

•Climate change effect on disease is complex and difficult to predict.

•Climate is an important but not the only driver of change in disease distribution (population, intensification of systems)

Climate change impacts on livestock and livestock systems

Tsetse Distribution and Climate Change

Model predictions for to changes in tsetse distribution to 2030 from current distributions for morsitans (left), fusca (centre) and palpalis (right) tsetse groups as a result of changes in length of growing period

No change: Absent

Presence to Absence

Absence to Presence

No change: Present

McDermott et al. (2001), revised 2005

Impact of climate change on livestock and livestock systems

12

Heat stress: Higher impact in high altitudes (reduced productivity);

Lower impact in low altitudes where livestock ecotypes have developed fitness traits to adapt to hot/dry or hot/humid ecosystems

Biodiversity : Loss of high value breeds/ ecotypes and their unique genes ( fitness traits).

Impact of Livestock on Climate change

A food chain perspective of GHG emissions (Livestock Long Shadow),

Feed production: Fertilizer, fossil fuel, land use change, fires

Livestock rearing: Enteric ferm., manure mangt.

Post-harvest:

Livestock:9- 18% anthropogenic emissions

80% agricultural emissions

Contributors to climate change

Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa

Changes in growing conditions

to 2050

Climate Change Risk / Impact

Different scenarios of the future

Biophysical vulnerability

Social vulnerability

14 indicators

Data reduction analysis 4 factors, combined

into one “overall” vulnerability indicator

Hot-spots

Hot-spots

Hot-spots of climate risk AND vulnerability

Vulnerability

Highest vulnerability quartile (4)

Second-highest vulnerability quartile (3)

Possibly severe LGP loss (>20% to 2050)

Some MRA systems in Sahel Mixed rainfed and highland perennial systems in Great Lakes region of E Africa LGA systems in parts of E Africa

MRA, LGA systems in large parts of Sahel Livestock systems and some mixed systems in parts of E and southern Africa Coastal systems in E and parts of southern Africa

Possibly moderate LGP loss (5-20% to 2050)

Mixed systems in parts of E Africa

Coastal systems of parts of W Africa Tree crop systems in parts of W Africa Forest-based systems in central Africa Root-based and root-mixed systems in south central Africa

Synthesis of hot-spotsMRA, mixed rainfed arid-semairid systems LGA, rangeland arid-semiarid systems

18

Adaptation approaches

Diversification of livelihood strategies: Payment of Environmental Services in rangelands

Largest land use system

Potentially a large C sink

Could be an important income diversification source

Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring C stocks; Establishment of payment schemes; Dealing with mobile pastoralists, non clear land use and property rights

19

Adaptation approaches

Securing livestock assets: Index Based Livestock Insurance, IBLI

Innovative index based insurance to manage weather related risk; drought related livestock losses)… Piloted in Kenya and Ethiopia•Protect productive assets of the poor

•All insured clients in a geographical area are compensated when an external independent indicator (NDVI) that predicts rangeland state, reaches a strike point.

Challenges to go at scale: Need for high quality data to design and price insurance contracts; Effective demand ; Cost effective delivery systems.

20

Adaptation approaches

Responsiveness of feeding systems

•Assessment of feed resources a the national and local levels

•‘Moving megajoules’ feed surplus to feed deficit areas

•Introduction of feed processing and storage technologies

Mitigation approaches

Adaptation options can also lead to mitigation and vice-versa: – Increasing efficiency/productivity to produce lower GHG per

unit of product (milk, meat) through sustainable intensification: • Improved feeding systems; Superior breeds• Market incentives: Inputs and services provision• Managing negative environmental externalities

Conclusion

Climate change is happening but we need to act even if the magnitude of the impacts is uncertain

Impacts of climate change on livestock in Africa is heterogeneous but potentially severe, especially in arid and semi-arid areas.

Adaptation to climate change need to be considered in the context of other significant drivers of change

.

22

Conclusion

PES and IBLI are potential income diversification and risk management options in the face of climate change that need further investment in Africa

If they are to be successful, both adaptation and mitigation options will require:– investments in terms of infrastructure (roads,

market development, development of water resources, market information, telecom)

– Supportive policies, regulations and institutions23

The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

better lives through livestockilri.org