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KD-A134 945 UNCLASSIFIED INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE VIMS (VEHICLE INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT SVSTEMXU) AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SVSTEMS AND LOGISTICS E T FOX SEP 82 AFIT-LSSR-72-83 F/G 5/1 NL 1

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  • KD-A134 945

    UNCLASSIFIED

    INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE VIMS (VEHICLE INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT SVSTEMXU) AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SVSTEMS AND LOGISTICS E T FOX SEP 82 AFIT-LSSR-72-83 F/G 5/1 NL

    1

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    INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE VIMS

    Edward T. Fox, Captain, USAF

    LSSR 72-83

    s DTIC ELECTE

    NOV 281983

    DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE

    AIR UNIVERSITY

    AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

    D

    ::

    Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio

    DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A

    Approved for public reloa3o; Distribution Unlimited

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    INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE VIMS

    Edward T. Fox, Captain, USAF

    LSSR 72-83

    DISTRI]. (mON STATEMENT A

    Approved fci public Teloo.se; Distiibution Unlimited

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    The contents of the document are technically accurate, and no sensitive items, detrimental ideas, or deleterious information are contained therein. Furthermore, the views expressed in the document are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the School of Systems and Logistics, the Air University, the Air Training Command, the United States Air Force, or the Department of Defense.

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    UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Whin Data Entered)

    REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE READ INSTRUCTIONS BEFORE COMPLETING FORM 1. REPORT NUM3ER

    LSSR 72-83 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO

    £2z£l3±&M£ 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG NUMBER

    4. TITLE (and Submit)

    INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE VIMS

    5. TYPE OF REPORT * PERlOO COVERED

    Master's Thesis S. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER

    7. AUTHORf«) 8. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMSER(J)

    Edward T. Fox, Captain, USAF 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME ANO AOORESS

    School of Systems and Logistics Air Force Institute of Technology, WPAFB OH

    10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT, TASK AREA « WORK UNIT NUMBERS

    II. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME ANO AOORESS

    Department of Communication AFIT/LSH, WPAFB OH 45433

    12. REPORT OATE

    September 1983 13. NUMBER OF PAGES

    85 14. MONITORING AGENCY NAME 4 »OORESSfi/ different Irom Controlling Office) IS. SECURITY CLASS, (ol thta report)

    UNCLASSIFIED IS«. OECLASSIFlCATION DOWNGRADING

    SCHEDULE

    16. CISTRlBUTiON STATEMENT (ol this Report)

    Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

    J '7. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (ol the ebetrect entered In Block 20, II different (torn Report)

    18. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

    jUi Fore» totftatt •« T.«hnolo«T IAT0* Wrtght-Pstt«r»oo W* oa *****

    1 5SEP 1983 19. KEY WOROS (Continue on ravaraa aida II necessary and identity by block number)

    Structured Interviews Vehicle Integrated Management System (VIMS) Information Requirements Information Analysis Decision Support Systems

    20. ABSTRACT 'Continue on ravaraa side II nacaeamry and Identity by block number)

    Thesis Chairman: James W. Annesser, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF

    DD 1 j*N 71 1473 EDITION OF 1 NOV »5 IS OBSOLE-£ UNCLASSIFIED

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    UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS P*GZ(Whut Dtf Enf.rtrf)

    s \

    i ^ The Vehicle Integrated Management System (VIMS) processes data inputs and puts out reports to be used by Air Force vehicle fleet managers. The system was designed to give managers information to support their decisions. The problem centers around the fact that the VIMS has not been reevaluated since 1975. In the last eight years there have been changes in the information requirements of decision makers. In addition, there have been tech- nological advances that have been made in the science of information gathering, processing, and reporting. This thesis examines the VIMS in the light of these changes and suggests modifications to bridge the gap between the VIMS outputs and decision makers' information requirements. A five-step process was used involving structured inter- views of decision makers and surveys of VIMS outputs and Air Force regulations. Presented in this effort are the shortfalls of the VIMS and the recommended corrective actions.

    UNCLASSIFIED

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    This thesis, written by

    Captain Edward T. Fox

    has been accepted by the undersigned on behalf of the faculty of the School of Systems and Logistics in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

    MASTER OF SCIENCE IN LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT

    DATE: 2 8 September 1983

    COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN \flU4 j2

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    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

    I thank God for His love and guidance through it

    all. I thank my advisor, Lt Col James W. Annesser, who

    helped and inspired me. I extend my appreciation to

    Maj Ronald H. Rasch for his keen insight and knowledge.

    • I give heartfelt gratitude to my typist, Mrs. Phyllis

    \> Reynolds, who stuck by me and pushed me forward. Finally,

    I extend a special thanks to my wife, Sylvia, who made it

    «j all come together with patience, understanding, and love.

    111

  • '•• •'.".•.»'•'• ! F"»T1^—^'^^^^^^^^^^T^W»'"^"'^ - I 1 ' V !• • '. • i • L • t •; •• • li •« • • '* 1

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    Page

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii

    LIST OF TABLES vi

    LIST OF FIGURES vii

    CHAPTER

    I. INTRODUCTION 1

    Overview 1 i

    Problem Statement 2

    Justification 3

    Background 3

    Research Questions . . 4

    II. LITERATURE REVIEW 6

    Introduction 6

    I Decision Support Systems Described 7

    Predesign Analysis 10 •

    System Design and Development 15

    j Implementation 18

    Situational Factors 18

    Corrective and/or Preventive Measures . . 19

    I Implementation Strategies 2 2

    Summary 2 3

    iv

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    CHAPTER Page

    III. METHODOLOGY 24

    Decision Support System Development Process . 24

    Scope and Limitations 24

    IV. ANALYSIS 32

    Analysis of Findings 32

    Research Question 1 32

    Research Question 2 33

    Research Question 3 33

    Research Question 4 47

    Summary 64

    V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 67

    Study Conclusions and Recommendations .... 67

    Research Question 5 67

    Recommendations for Future Study 6 9

    SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 71

    A. REFERENCES CITED 72

    B. RELATED SOURCES 73

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    LIST OF TABLES

    Table Page

    2-1. Tradeoff Variables in User Interface Design . . 16

    4-1. VIMS Output Vocabulary Descriptions 34

    4-2. Non-VIMS Output Vocabulary Descriptions .... 41

    4-3. Decision Table 45

    4-4. Information Requirements Matrix 48

    4-5. Summary Analysis 65

    VI

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    LIST OF FIGURES

    Figure Page

    2-1. The Predesign Cycle 11

    3-1. Sample Interview 2 8

    3-2. Sample Information Matrix 2 9

    Vll

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    CHAPTER I

    INTRODUCTION

    Overview

    Vehicles are vital to the operation of an Air

    Force Base. The Air Force has over 100,000 vehicles in

    its inventory (12:4). Without the timely maintenance and

    replacement of these vehicles the readiness capability of

    the Air Force would be seriously degraded.

    The Mission of the Air Force is to "fly and fight";

    to do this the Air Force must generate and launch aircraft

    to defend U.S. interests worldwide. Air Force units use

    vehicles to get men, equipment, and aircraft to the

    appointed places at the appointed times. Delays due to

    vehicle failures could impose intolerable constraints or

    limitations on defense operations. This would ultimately

    jeopardize the safety of U.S. world interests. Managing

    vehicles for readiness involves keeping vehicles in a safe

    and operable condition to meet mission requirements.

    Money for vehicle purchases, operation, and main-

    tenance is limited. More effective management of vehicle

    maintenance, operation, and replacement will equate,

    indirectly perhaps—but certainly nevertheless—to increased

    readiness per dollar invested. This includes the management

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    of scarce petroleum resources. To be effective, managers

    must have adequate information. The Vehicle Integrated

    Management System (VIMS) is the primary system vehicle

    fleet managers use to process and report vehicle data/

    information used in managing and maintaining the Air Force

    vehicle fleet.

    This thesis will reexamine the information require-

    ments of decision makers currently using the VIMS to aid

    their effective management of the vehicle fleet. By

    reexamining the VIMS, it can determine to what extent the

    system of vehicle fleet management has evolved beyond the

    service the VIMS now provides.

    Problem Statement

    For an information system to be an effective deci-

    sion support tool, it must provide decision makers with the

    essential information with which to make decisions. Even

    after a system has been built and implemented, it should

    undergo reexamination periodically to ensure that the sys-

    tem is providing the necessary outputs to support decision

    making. The VIMS was last reevaluated in 1975. Given the

    technological advances in information gathering, process-

    ing, and reporting, the VIMS should be reexamined to deter-

    mine if it provides all of the necessary information ele-

    ments managers need to make vehicle fleet management

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    decisions. If the VIMS has information shortfalls, this

    thesis will identify those shortfalls and recommend cor-

    rective action.

    Justification

    An effective vehicle decision support system con-

    tributes to Air Force readiness capability and to the

    effective and efficient use of vehicle fleet resources.

    Improvements in this area can effect more timely sched-

    uling of maintenance for vehicles and enhance the quantity

    and quality of information managers need to maintain and

    operate the vehicle fleet, and manage available resources.

    In addition, a dollar savings can be realized by stream-

    lining the VIMS and eliminating the collection, processing,

    and reporting of unused data.

    Background

    The VIMS is a set of twenty-seven programs, written

    in COmmon Business Oriented Language (COBOL) which performs

    as a base level data management system and runs on the B350 0

    computer. Both the Transportation and Supply squadrons

    process data into the VIMS from their respective operations.

    The primary emphasis of the VIMS is to give computer pro-

    ducts to managers and users to help in decision making and

    allow data review and correction ability (14:p.2-l).

    The need for a VIMS was decided at a management

    workshop held at Andrews AFB in October 1968. After the

    3

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    preliminary assessment and subsequent field testing were

    accomplished VIMS was started Air Force-wide in July 1971.

    The sponsor of the VIMS is the Vehicle and Equipment

    Branch, Transportation Systems Division, Directorate of

    Logistics, HQ USAF/LETN, Washington DC 20330 (14:p.l-l).

    The primary users are all USAF vehicle maintenance shops

    squadrons.

    The MITRE Corporation—an outside consultant firm

    hired by the Deputy for Command and Management Systems,

    Electronic Systems Division, AFSC, Hanscom AFB, Bedford,

    Massachusettes—examined the VIMS to "explore possible

    alternative techniques for improving the handling of

    vehicle maintenance management data [12:abstract]." They

    identified strengths and weaknesses and made suggestions

    for near-term improvements to include a restructuring of

    the VIMS to operate on-line. The Air Force is now testing

    the on-line VIMS and plans to implement the system Air

    Force-wide if the setup proves beneficial. Since the

    MITRE Corporation investigation there may have been changes

    in the information requirements of managers that should be

    examined.

    Research Questions

    1. What information does the VIMS provide on

    reports now being used by decision makers to manage the

    vehicle fleet?

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    2. What decisions are made for the management of

    the vehicle fleet?

    3. What are the information requirements of the

    managers making the aforementioned decisions?

    4. How does the information needed compare with

    the information provided by the VIMS?

    5. Should omitted necessary information be added

    to the VIMS output?

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    To aid in a clearer understanding of DSS, it is

    compared and contrasted with management information systems

    (MIS). Once the reader's understanding of what DSS is

    and how it compares to other systems is established, the

    chapter goes deeper into the DSS building process with dis-

    cussion covering the topics of predesign considerations,

    system design and development, and system implementation.

    Decision Support Systems Described

    An initial step in attempting to understand DSS is

    establishing a definition of the term. According to

    Sprague and Carlson, DSS is interactive computer help

    to decision makers using data and modeIs to solve unstruc-

    tured problems (11:4). The key words are underlined in

    the definition. This fundamental definition is shared also

    by Robert Thierauf who points out that "decision makers"

    include managers and some operating personnel, depending on

    the circumstances (13:26). The literature generally

    excludes operators as primary users of DSS. Dr. Wagner

    refers to DSS as a system that provides "Executive Mind

    Support [17:82]." His emphasis is on the executive (indi-

    vidual or group) as user of the system. "It is a system

    that an executive uses with such intimate rapport that it

    seems to become part of his own mind [16:10]." Now an

    explanation of the term "unstructured problem" is needed.

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    An unstructured or semistructured problem is one

    where neither a manager's judgement nor data- about the

    situation being assessed are sufficient by themselves for

    effective decision making (8:86). In such a circumstance

    both data and judgement are necessary to solve the problem.

    For example, when preparing a Vehicle Buy proposal manage-

    ment must prioritize vehicles from the ones most needed to

    the ones least needed. This is done because not all the

    vehicles in the age and condition categories to be replaced

    can be replaced in a single fiscal year. Therefore, trade-

    offs must be considered. The computer can give the age

    and condition data (funds available for repair of the

    vehicle, fuel efficiency, and other data) necessary to

    determine the vehicles eligible to be replaced and provide

    data manipulation capability to examine the mission impact

    of different proposals. However, the manager must use

    judgement to determine where there is the greatest short-

    and long-term need for vehicles. No computerized decision

    rule is applicable all the time, nor is judgement suffi-

    cient.

    Another aid to understanding DSS is identifying its

    characteristics and contrasting them with its predecessors,

    EDP and MIS. Keen declares that DSS challenges the assump-

    tions made by EDP/MIS that: computers are useful primarily

    for their ability to process data, and to serve as

    "standardized information systems [7:33]." Steven L. Alter

    8

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    explains the differences between EDP and DSS as a being

    embodied in the underlying philosophies of the two dis-

    ciplines (2:2-3). The basic purpose of EDP is to automate

    the retrieval and storage of data to reduce costs, improve

    accuracy, and allow quick access to data concerning daily

    operations (increased efficiency). The philosophy of DSS

    emphasizes increased effectiveness within the organization

    as opposed to efficiency.

    Sprague and Carlson use a connotational and a theo-

    retical approach to pointing out the differences between

    the concepts (11:6-10). The connotational view describes

    EDP as a data focus entity, while the focus of MIS is on

    information, and DSS keys in on the decision with which

    the manager is faced. Theoretically, EDP/MIS is geared to

    management provision of structured reports required for man-

    agement and control of the organization whereas, DSS is

    evolving from a "coalescence" of information and opera-

    tions research/management science (OR/MS) technologies

    through interactive modeling techniques (static, using

    graphs and dynamic, using simulations).

    Andrew Vazsonyi sums the difference between OR/MS

    and DSS by listing four generally accepted (by DSS pro-

    ponents) observations:

    1. DSS, unlike OR/MS, does not replace decision makers, but supports them: DSS is a mind support system;

    2. DSS allows for the introduction of judgement, while OR/MS is normative/prescriptive;

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    The first step in the decision analysis is to

    monitor the decision process. In this way the DSS builder

    can get a feel for the information needs of the decision

    maker. Next the key decisions should be identified along

    with their associated information elements. The builder

    can ascertain information about key decisions three ways

    according to Merle Martin (10:21). They are observing

    decision activities, interviewing decision makers, and

    deducing how the decision is made. All three methods are

    necessary because no one method provides all the informa-

    tion necessary under normal circumstances.

    The third step in the process is to define the deci-

    sion process as it should be—the normative model. The

    normative model is a proposal for change; it defines the

    range of potential designs for the DSS (8:174). The fourth

    step in the decision analysis is a comparison of the norma-

    tive with the descriptive model—decision process as it is.

    The descriptive model provides a starting point from which

    to launch improvement efforts. Finally, the builder selects

    areas he/she thinks are supportable.

    Under the "Entry" side of Figure 2-1 there are four

    areas which should be examined before moving on. The first

    of the four involves finding out how much of the organiza-

    tion's resources are committed to making an improvement in

    the decision process. It means uncovering the organiza-

    tional motives and expectations for change and then

    12

  • •V..I ...»•».. . ... -».- . . .. V • I - . • • . • • ».- • . • ' » . • . • : ! —: : 1 = .- - - -

    building the momentum to implement the agreed-upon

    a, changes. The second area for examination is ensuring

    K'-\ the right problem is being worked. In other words, is

    what the builder doing in line with organizational objec-

    tives.

    The objectives of the DSS must also be compared to

    organizational needs. Sprague and Carlson review six

    objectives of a DSS that fit combinations of problems that

    DSS can help resolve (11:94-96). Those objectives are:

    1. To support difficult, underspecified decisions

    j as well as structured well specified decisions.

    2. To support decisions at all Levels in the

    organization, whether they be strategic planning, manage-

    I ment control, operational control, or operational perform-

    ance .

    3. To support communication between decision

    I makers when there is that requirement. Decisions can be

    independent (when one decision maker makes the final deci-

    sion) , sequential interdependent (a decision maker makes a

    S partial decision and passes it on to the next decision

    maker), or pooled interdependent (a decision through nego-

    .; tiation) .

    I 4. To support all phases of the decision-making

    process and promote interaction among phases. These

    phases include intelligence (searching the environment

    H for potential problems), design (developing and analyzing

    13

  • m r • •. •—•—-—•

    courses of action), and choice (choosing and implementing

    a course of action).

    5. To support decision making with a menu of

    different processes to be selected at the user's choice.

    6. To be flexible to respond to the user's

    changing needs and easy to use.

    The third area of consideration is determining what

    resources are available for the change versus what

    resources are needed and coming to a satisfactory compro-

    mise. Fourth and finally, the design alternatives should

    be examined to find the one most suitable. At this time

    also, goals should be further operationalized, a cost to

    benefit analysis should be calculated, and key issues and

    limiting factors on implementation should be identified and

    resolved to the extent possible.

    A word of caution is necessary here. In this early

    stage of development the cost to benefit analysis may be

    very inaccurate because of "the lack of specific require-

    ments, the uncertainty of needed manpower requirements, and

    the inability to estimate intangibles [9:20]." For this

    reason, Keim and Janaro recommend a cost-benefit analysis

    at each step of the design process (9:20).

    With the completion of the preliminary considera-

    tions, the organization is now ready to move on to the

    design and development stage.

    14

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    System Design and Development

    The design of the system includes all the system

    components necessary to meet the objectives enumerated in

    the predesign cycle. However, there is a special emphasis

    placed o.i the user interface since unless the system is

    effectively manipulated by the user it is rendered useless.

    Table 2-1, taken from Eric Carlson's article (4:Table 4.1),

    lists the variables under consideration when trying to

    design the user interface to the system.

    These tradeoff variables make it possible to meet

    DSS objectives within the constraints of user style and

    available funds and technology. Consider the user whose

    familiarity with the computer is low, his/her control

    style is hands-on, and his/her desire is to minimize the

    amount of training necessary for working with the computer.

    Based on the user's strengths and limitations, the hardware

    output media selected may be line-at-a-time to allow the

    user to examine the data at his/her own pace. The input

    media may be a voice recognition device to avoid the user

    having to use a keyboard or pointing device. The software

    package might use prompts (questions to guide the user

    through the process) or menus (list of packages/routines

    available) to guide the user painlessly through simple

    subroutine calls. Another variable is the type of deci-

    sion.

    15

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    DSS fall into two categories to match the type of

    decision under consideration. According to John J. Donovan

    and Stuart E. Madnick (5:79), the categories are institu-

    tional, which deals with recurring decisions and ad hoc,

    which d \s with specific problems that are neither recur-

    ring nor anticipated. These two types of DSS have differ-

    ent computational needs. For example, if the decision is

    institutional then it is possible to build a DSS specifi-

    cally for the particular decision under consideration.

    The annual vehicle buy in transportation is an institutional

    decision that can be the focus of a DSS design. If the

    decision is ad hoc the design of the DSS must provide for

    a wide variety of potential applications. In a wartime

    scenario the number of vehicles needed to support a base

    may change drastically. Because the situation has

    occurred infrequently, the decision maker may need the

    ability to simulate war conditions under different assump-

    tions to determine the number of vehicles needed.

    The last variable in the table deals with number

    of participants. If the number of participants is several

    or the user (s) change frequently, then it might be cost-

    effective to gear the DSS to a class of user rather than a

    single (or a few) decision maker(s) (18:38). This possi-

    bility is especially significant for Air Force applications,

    since military decision makers seldom remain at a position

    for more than three or four years.

    17

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    The designer's job is to gather information about

    flj the decision setting and the user. He/She should analyze

    the decision process and build a model to use in the design

    of the DSS (1:1311).

    Implementation

    Implementation, or the lack thereof, has posed

    significant problems for DSS builders (2:123). This por-

    tion of the literature review will list some of the situa-

    tional factors that impede and that enhance implementation.

    Next, it will examine some of the actions to be taken in

    response to these factors. And finally, the review will

    describe strategies to deal with risk impediments and their

    consequences.

    -A Situational Factors

    There are eight "risk factors" according to Steven

    Alter (2:157) that can affect the implementation process:

    (1) nonexistent or unwilling users; (2) multiple users

    or implementers; (3) disappearing users, implementers, or

    maintainers; (4) inability to specify purpose or usage in

    advance; (5) inability to predict and cushion impact on

    parties involved; (6) lack of loss of support; (7) lack of

    prior experience with similar systems; and (8) technical

    problems and cost-effectiveness issues. The risk of failure

    in the implementation phase is lessened to the degree these

    risk factors are missing from the situation. The presence

    18

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    military might experience similar problems due to the

    transient nature of its personnel. Once a project is

    started it is advisable to tailor it to the general user

    rather than the specific individual(s) present during its

    development. Also, there should probably be some overlap

    for new personnel to learn from those who are experienced

    with the development process.

    Empirical studies show that systems are developed

    sometimes without a clear notion of how they will be used

    (2:163). This is usually the result of overoptimism on

    the part of the system designer with regard to the willing-

    ness and/or ability of the user (2:132). The key here is

    to explain capabilities of the proposed system to the user

    and solicit user feedback on the intended use and usage

    patterns of the systems. While it is difficult to predict

    usage patterns accurately all the time, training the user

    on the capabilities of the system will help to familiarize

    the user with the system.

    Individuals other than users, implementers, and

    maintainers must be prepared for their role in the process.

    Atler calls these individuals "feeders." They provide the

    data to the system (2:163). These individuals frequently

    are unwilling to work or change their work patterns without

    receiving some benefit. This problem is one which hampered

    the development of the VIMS. Wnen VIMS came onboard,

    mileage data was collected by the vehicle operator who

    20

    •»'•*'-**•'•*••-•'-*-'-'-*'-*"-' .'-.:-«-«—-'-•-•-*-«.. • - - - - -• -• - -> i i ......

  • ?l

    commonly knew little or nothing of the VIMS and the impor-

    tance of his/her role as data recorder-collector. As a

    result, many of these "feeders" to the system often turned

    in erroneous data and sometimes turned in none at all. To

    eradicate that problem, the Air Force went to the mileage

    estimator concept now used to estimate the mileage a

    vehicle travels based on its fuel consumption and miles

    per gallon data. Here as before, training and involvement

    may prevent feeder personnel from feeling left out or

    annoyed. Alter suggests that some benefit should be

    derived by individuals who play a feeder role—he admits

    though, that this is not always achieved in practice

    (2:164).

    Lack of support can stagnate the existence of a

    system. The typical situation in the studies conducted

    revealed lack of budget to run the system or lack of man-

    agement zeal to use the system properly as the culprits.

    The result was system death or disuse (2:Figure 28). The

    cure can be effected by funneling money into the system

    for training and operating costs.

    Inexperience on the part of users or implementers

    will also stymie progress. Systems where users or imple-

    menters were unfamiliar with the particulars of the system

    effort resulted in disuse or misuse by the user and con-

    ceptual and technical design problems on the part of the

    implementer. Training and communication can help lessen

    21

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    problems associated with a new system effort. However, a

    learning curve is involved and one muse expect to encounter

    stumbling blocks.

    Finally, technical problems (which are viewed also

    as cost-effectiveness issues) can hamper system develop-

    ment (2:165). These problems can be resolved with the

    development of redundant systems, more programming work,

    better software, larger computers and other things which

    can be resolved by an expanded budget.

    Implementation Strategies

    Implementation strategy should be geared to adapt to

    situational changes.

    Strategies for DSS design and implementation must attempt to articulate both particular decision activi- ties that can best be supported now as well as new, more effective decision actions that may evolve [1:1309].

    The strategy described is called an "evolutionary strategy

    [1:1312]." It involves the management of continual change

    and adjusting through a series of stages. The user is

    intimately involved in the development of the system. The

    system itself is developed through an iterative process

    where implementer/user interaction plays the key role.

    This evolutionary strategy attempts to create a mutual exchange of information about (1) the user and [implementer's] potential skills and knowledge base that might be appropriate for solving the problem, (2) potential solutions, and (3) personal critiques of these solutions. The approach hopes to utilize an interative user/[implementer] learning process as means to generate a more appropriate definition of system rquirements [1:1311].

    22

  • wtm^^^^i^^^^^^^^^^^i^^^^^^^^^^^^. m 11 11 • '•'•.• -i w. • •»•».• i •» n • ..... i T . .—-r-,

    A prototype is the product of this "learning process."

    Building a prototype lets the user get first-hand knowledge

    of system capabilities and allows the implementer to get

    feedback on the new concept before implementing an entire

    system (2:Figure 29). Even after the "final" system is in

    place its development throughout the life of the system

    should be a major concern of the organization.

    Summary

    The whole DSS concept can be summed in a few words:

    computer-based support for management decision making. The

    philosophy too, can oe stated succinctly: computers can do

    more than store and retrieve data. They can be useful aids

    to allow decision makers the latitude to model, optimize,

    and simulate.

    To develop this aid to decision making, predesign

    analysis should be undertaken to see if a DSS is needed

    and to what extent the organization is ready, willing, and

    able to take on the task of developing the needed system.

    Next, the design and development phase should develop the

    system components necessary to meet the needs outlined in

    the predesign phase. Finally, the implementation of the

    system should evolve over time to meet the changing needs

    of the user. The system should undergo continuous growth

    strategies to keep it current with the latest technological

    advances as well as the expanding and changing needs of the

    organization.

    23

  • p^B^ip«*»i^—•—•—•—•——r-—• v- -—i—r——*

    CHAPTER III

    METHODOLOGY

    Decision Support System Development Process

    This thesis identifies information needs not cur-

    rently being met by the VIMS and recommends either their

    inclusion into the VIMS, or their continued omission from

    the system. The role of the VIMS (explained in Chapter I)

    is to support management decisions. The computer DSS sup-

    ports the manager by providing the information about the

    situation and the ability to manipulate that information.

    The better the information the more effective the decision

    will be in accomplishing the desired objective.

    Scope and Limitations

    This effort confines itself to the determination

    of the decisions—for which the VIMS could or does provide

    at least one information element--and associated informa-

    tion requirements of the contractor-operated and maintained

    vehicle fleet at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The

    process, as it is developed in this thesis, involves five

    steps:

    1. Identify the information the VIMS provides

    on reports now being used by decision makers to aid their

    ;^ decision-making process.

    24

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    2. Identify the decisions made for the management

    of the vehicle fleet.

    3. Determine the information requirements of the

    managers making the aforementioned decisions.

    4. Compare and contrast the information needed

    with the information provided by the VIMS reports being

    used currently.

    5. Examine the potential for including omitted

    necessary information into the VIMS output and identifying

    unused information from the reports as needing further

    investigation to determine if the elements are used at any

    level of the decision-making process.

    The first step in the process involved identifying

    the information available to decision makers via the VIMS.

    The second step involved structured interviews of

    managers to identify the tasks they performed and decisions

    associated with each of those tasks. When managers dis-

    played an inability to respond, they were prompted with an

    example (e.g., "If you were tasked to dispatch vehicles

    and you received a telephone request for a vehicle you

    would have to decide whether or not to respond to the call,

    what vehicle to send, and which driver to send?). Prompt-

    ing helped the respondent to understand the question and

    formulate an appropriate answer.

    In the third step, decision makers were further

    questioned about their information requirements for each

    25

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    decision they made. Here too, managers were prompted when

    they did not know how to respond. Returning to the dis-

    patch example in step two, the prompting followed "long

    these lines: before you could send a vehicle to a caller

    yoa would need to know if he/she qualified for government

    transportation, the caller's location, destination, and

    time of pick up. After the decision maker listed the

    information needed for a decision, he (there were no female

    respondents) was asked about any apparent oversights. In

    the dispatch example for instance, if the respondent over-

    looked the decision to send a driver or the need for infor-

    mation identifying the caller's location, he was asked

    specifically about the oversight. In addition, the decision

    maker, when applicable, was questioned about the need for

    an analytic or forecasting model on the VIMS. In each

    case the decision maker was first told how a model might

    work and told where in the decision-making process such a

    model might be used beneficially. Finally, the decision

    maker was asked to identify the sources of the information

    he used. If the source was non-VIMS and VIMS provided the

    same information, he was asked why he chose not to use the

    VIMS output.

    Steps one through three were combined in the inter-

    views of all decision makers using the VIMS as a decision

    aid and those who could feasibly do so. After the inter-

    viewer was identified and the goal and intended benefit of

    26

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    the research was explained, each interviewee was questioned

    • in accordance with the format shown in Figure 3-1.

    The fourth step involved a research design that

    identifies the decision, the decision maker and the informa-

    i tion needed. The information was divided into five cate-

    gories identified by an information status code:

    1 = Information needed and provided by the VIMS;

    I 2 = Information needed and provided by a source

    other than the VIMS;

    3 = Information needed but presently unavailable;

    * 4 = Information provided by the VIMS but not used

    •; for the decision; and

    Blank space • Information neither needed nor

    | provided.

    The format is a matrix that identifies the decisions and

    decision makers across the top and the information elements

    ] along the side (see Figure 3-2). The numbers 1 through 4

    or a blank space--corresponding to the information status

    code—were entered into each block according to the status

    >• of the information element corresponding to the appropriate

    decision. For example, if information element "U" is

    needed for decision reporting contractor VOC rate to Con-

    • tracting (Al) and is provided by the VIMS, then a "1" was

    entered into the box under reporting contractor VOC rate to

    Contracting (Al) beside "U" as shown in Figure 3-2.

    27

  • • •'«•••'••

    m

    ..-;• Hello, I'm Captain Fox from AFIT. I'm here to find out what information you need to help you make deci-

    si sions associated with your job. The information you give 'v me will go into a thesis effort to help persuade Air Force

    decision makers to furnish all of the information you % think necessary to aid you in accomplishing your routine

    and special tasks. I'm going to ask you several questions that I'd like for you to answer as candidly as possible.

    May I record this interview?

    • Name

    9

    '•

    s-C" Position

    What do you do; what activities are you responsible for?

    ?• What decisions do you make in the performance of your duties?

    Now let's look at each decision separately.

    Decision

    - What information do you currently use to aid you in making this decision and £rom where does it come?

    - What further information could you'use if it was avail- able? i

    /.• - If forecasting is implied, ask if a forecasting tool !-;" would be useful.

    - Is there anything that pertains to information require- ments for this decision that I may have missed?

    Fig. 3-1. Sample Interview

    28

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    U 1 V

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    Fig. 3-2. Sample Information Matrix

    The fifth and final step of the process examined

    ways to get managers and supervisors the information they

    need for decision making via the VIMS. It suggested the

    omission of unnecessary information and the inclusion of

    necessary information that is not now provided in VIMS

    reports.

    Some DSS and MIS experts are critical of personal

    interviews as the way to determine information requirements.

    Merle Martin (10:14) suggests that managers too often don't

    know the information they require to make decisions. To

    get around that obstacle he recommends taking a more struc-

    tured approach to the problem. He explains the System

    Dynamics model as one such approach. "The purpose of this

    model is a structured search for pertinent decisions and

    the information required to drive these decisions [10:15]."

    29

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    mm^mmw'm^mmmmmmmmmwmmmi mm ••••• • - • L • n'. ,JU »IU • .••» P .• P •I|." •• p • • v •••••'•••i- ET•

    1 I ;..• Martin goes on to add that there is a great deal of

    literature that recommends the interview approach.

    k; The methodology of this research followed the

    latter approach; it presupposed that VIMS users could best

    identify their information requirements. Burch, Strater,

    and Grudnitski confirm the validity of this approach:

    "Information requirements can best be stated by the users

    of the information [3:252]." They hasten to add, however,

    that the systems analyst must help users determine their

    requirements.

    Most individuals are guided in formulating their needs by arbitrary and often antiquated notions of what they "think" can be provided. The analyst's func- tion, then, is to remove or expand these attitudes so that the real information requirements can be obtained [3:252].

    Following the suggested pattern, interviewees were

    questioned about possible needs for forecasting techniques

    and analytical models in certain decision areas. For

    example, Priority Buy proposals take hours to calculate by

    hand. After the initial calculation, if the approving

    authority makes minor changes, it could take hours to

    recalculate the proposal. However, if an analytical model

    of the Priority Buy decisions rules were developed, the

    computer could calculate and recalculate the proposal in

    seconds, error free.

    The result of this project should give a clearer

    understanding to the reader of the information requirements

    30

    • • - • .

  • ^^•^

    on the part of the decision makers now using the VIMS in

    the contractor-operated vehicle sections of the 2750th

    Transportation Branch at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base,

    Ohio. Moreover, it should lead to changes in the informa-

    tion the VIMS provides its users so that reports are

    tailored to user needs. Finally, it may provide the

    impetus for future research in the area of information

    requirements for VIMS at other bases.

    31

  • ——«—«•• «.»-*.'

    r \'

    CHAPTER IV

    ANALYSIS

    Analysis of Findings

    This chapter examines the findings of the study.

    In the following chapter these findings serve as the focal

    point for drawing conclusions and making recommendations

    for system modifications and future studies.

    Research Question 1

    Of the thirty-three VIMS outputs, eleven are for

    use by Maintenance Control and Analysis (MC/A) to edit or

    update VIMS files. Of the remaining twenty-two outputs,

    only five are used as decision aids by the decision makers

    interviewed in this study. These five reports include the

    following:

    1. Vehicle Out of Commission (VOC) Report—tells

    the quality assurance evaluators (QAE) how the contractor's

    VOC rate compares with the allowable quality level (AQL)

    the Vehicle Maintenance Section has contracted to comply

    with;

    2. Work Order Master File Status Report—shows

    all work orders (w/o) on the master file in numerical

    sequence;

    32

    1

  • M*

    3. Vehicle Master List—sequenced by management

    code (List A) and assigned organization (List B). Shows

    static and dynamic data for all vehicles for which vehicle

    maintenance has primary responsibility.

    4. Scheduled Maintenance Report (Shop Copy)—

    prints only vehicles overdue scheduled maintenance miles/

    hours/kilometers and dates, and those coming due.

    5. Vehicle Static Maintenance Data List—made up

    upon request to print a specific vehicle's or all vehicles'

    static data.

    Explanations of the output vocabulary used in the five

    reports (14:pp.4-78,4-79,4-84,4-85,4-87 to 4-89,7-9,7-10)

    are shown in Table 4-1. Table 4-2 explains the information

    elements obtained from other-than-VIMS sources.

    Research Question 2

    The information elements in Table 4-1 and Table

    4-2, from the VIMS and non-VIMS sources, are used to make

    decisions concerning the base vehicle fleet. The decision

    makers and the decisions they made that lend themselves to

    being supported by the VIMS are depicted in Table 4-3.

    Research Question 3

    There are three categories of information needed

    by managers; the first is provided by the VIMS; the second

    is supplied by non-VIMS sources; and the final set of infor-

    mation is that information which is to date unavailable.

    33

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    All of the information elements previously dis-

    cussed and the decisions of the specific decision makers

    compiled in Tables 4-1 through 4-3 are combined in

    Table 4-4 to show the information necessary for each deci-

    sion as stated by the decision maker. The information will

    be divided into five categories identified by an informa-

    tion status code:

    1 = Information needed and provided by the VIMS;

    2 = Information needed and provided by a source

    other than the VIMS;

    3 = Information needed but presently unavailable;

    4 = Information provided by the VIMS but not used

    for the decision; and

    Blank space = Information neither needed nor

    provided.

    These status codes are placed in the blocks corresponding

    to the decisions and information elements to which they

    make reference. The results of the study are summarized

    in Table 4-4. From these summarized results we can draw

    conclusions about the adequacy of the VIMS support for each

    decision.

    Research Question 4

    The analysis follows each information element (or

    group of elements if similar status codes apply to more than

    one element) and the associated status codes for each deci-

    sion.

    47

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    49

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  • MPPa^PV*. I I • i • F • -• >

    The first group of information elements are used

    by the individual decision makers every time they are pro-

    vided by the VIMS (status code "1"). The following infor-

    mation elements are used in amending the Work Order Master

    File Status Report (A2), amending the Work Order Master

    File status Report (Bl), and establishing maintenance

    priorities for vehicles entering the shop (Cl):

    1. Work Center

    2. Date/Time Rec'd

    3. Date/Time Rel'd

    4. Date Delayed

    5. Work Order Status

    6. W/0 Indicator

    These element should remain as they are.

    The next set of information elements within the

    first group, are used in establishing maintenance priori-

    ties for vehicles entering the shop (Cl) and calling

    users to schedule vehicle inspections (C3), or in calling

    users to schedule vehicle inspections (C3) only (6, 7, and

    8) :

    1. Safety Due

    2. Sch/LOF Due

    3 Special -1 Due

    4. Special -2 Due

    5. Special -3 Due

    54

    *"^ •A- -' • -"- •"•"— *'-«.-«-**^*--J| ^'--.«-» -.•-.. •- •• I,, *- tJUk i-i i n *~ - - '- - I * -—•-»-.- --* - * - ~ ' ~

  • "• ••

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    • ;

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    6. Week Due

    7. In-Shop

    8. Odometer M/H/K

    These too, should be left as they are.

    The second group of elements are obtained from

    non-VIMS sources for certain decisions even though they are

    provided by the VIMS (status code "2"). The first set in

    this second group are used in temporarily redistributing

    manpower (C2):

    1. VOC Hrs

    2. Available Hrs

    3. VOC%

    The Vehicle Maintenance Analyst, in this instance, needs

    current information and the VIMS product is, at least,

    twenty-four hours old. Therefore, he keeps a manual record

    of the three information elements and updates them as fre-

    quently as necessary. An on-line/real-time VIMS would

    resolve the problem by allowing the decision maker to

    update the VIMS output as often as required eliminating

    £#, the need for a separate tally.

    The second set of the second information group

    contains a single element: Asg Org. It is used in estab-

    lishing maintenance priorities for vehicles entering the

    shop (Cl). The Vehicle Maintenance Analyst has a wall

    chart displaying every vehicle in the fleet, by registra-

    tion number, and the organization to which it is assigned.

    55

    . . '.» . -. . . j . .: . - ... ••..••-. T - - - ••--•-••- . - -,.

  • f»T"»w»«T^l-»~^" -« •'» - ' - - '» • » • • _ • V » l •

    Because the wall chart is easier to use than a VIMS

    report, the chart is probably the source to use. This

    requires no adjustment to the VIMS since every other time

    where "Asg Org" is provided, it is used.

    The third group of information elements are those

    needed elements which are not provided by the VIMS and are

    obtained from other sources. "Nomenclature," "Manu-

    facturer," and "Serial Number" are used in recommending

    vehicle disposition to the VAUB (Dl) and recommending

    to the VAUB the organization to receive a new vehicle

    (D2) . All of these elements (in addition to others) are

    provided by the VAL, a Supply Squadron computer output.

    It seems practical to add these to the VIMS to preclude

    the necessity of using more than one report each for the

    aforementioned decisions.

    Another element of group three elements is "Org

    Priority," used in recommending vehicle disposition to

    the VAUB (Dl), recommending to the VAUB the organization

    to receive a new vehicle (D2), establishing maintenance

    priorities for vehicles entering the shop (Cl), and pulling

    an organization's vehicle(s) (E3). An organization's

    priority is not likely to change and is simple to enter

    into the VIMS. As a result, it should be entered in