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Information provided by

CEAZ Members:

Calhoun

1

CEAZ Members:

Clay

2

CEAZ Members:

Cleburne

3

4

CEAZ Members:

St. Clair

CEAZ Members:

Talladega

5

Cheaha Economic

Activity Zone: Overview

• Big Picture Overview

• Outlook Surveys

– Nation

– State

– Region

• Population

• Income

• Labor Force

• Employment

• Unemployment

• Sales Tax

6

Big Picture

7

• GDP

• Industrial Production

• Equity Markets

• Purchasing Managers Index

• Consumer Sentiment

• Retail Sales

• Housing

-1.3%

3.2%

1.4%

3.7%

1.2%

2.8%

0.1% 1.8%

4.5%

-2.1%

5.0%

2.2%

-0.7%

-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%

2011q1 2012q1 2013q1 2014q1 2015q1

U.S. Real GDP % Change

from Preceding Period

1st Qtr 2011 – 1st Qtr 2015

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

-0.7% 2nd Est 1st Qtr 2015

8

U.S. Industrial Production

April 2013 – April 2015

95

100

105

110

Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System

1.9% Past 12 Months

9

0

100

200

300

400

Apr-12 Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr 15

Mar 15 Rev +85,000

Apr 15 Pre +223,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 10

Change in Total Nonfarm

Payroll Employment for U.S.

Apr 2012-Apr 2015 in 1,000s

Dow Jones Industrial

Average (DJIA)

May 2011–May 2015

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15Source: NY Stock Exchange

+(9.33%) 12 Months

11

950

1,200

1,450

1,700

1,950

2,200

May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15

S & P 500

May 2011–May 2015

Source: Yahoo Finance

+(11.2%) 12 Months

12

$360

$380

$400

$420

$440

$460

Apr-2011 Apr-2012 Apr-2013 Apr-2014 Apr-15

In $

Bil

lion

s

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

+1.69% 12 Months

13

Monthly Sales for Retail &

Food Services in U.S.

Apr 2011-April 2015 in $ Bill

132

140

148

156

164

172

180

Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15

Case Shiller 20-City

Home Price Index

Feb 2011-Feb 2015

Source: Standard and Poor’s

+2.47% 12 Months

14

1,992 1,991 1,9931,997

2,0012,008

2,0162,022

2,032

1,980

1,990

2,000

2,010

2,020

2,030

Apr-14 Jul Oct Jan-15 Apr-15

In 1

,00

0

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

39,964 for

12 Months

Seasonally Adjusted

15

Employment State of AL

Apr 2014 – Apr 2015

in 1,000s

16

KY 5.1%

TN 6.3%

MS 6.8%

NC 5.4%

SC 6.7%

FL 5.7%

AL 5.7%

Preliminary Unemployment

Rates Southeastern United

States April 2015Source: AL Dept of Labor

Seasonally Adjusted

GA 6.3%

16

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Apr-15 June Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr-15

% C

han

ge

Sales Tax

Income Tax

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

+3.99% Sales -1.00% Incomes

17

Sales/Individual Income Tax

State of AL % Change from

Previous Year Apr 14 to Apr 15

Outlook Surveys

18

United States CEAZAlabama

U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Jan 2011 – Apr 2015

Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Last 12 Months +19.88%

19

• State Survey – 2nd Quarter 2015

• Approximately 224 respondents

• Operated by University of Alabama

Center for Business and Economic

Research

• cber.cba.ua.edu

20

http://www.blcindex.com/

0.4%

11.2%

45.1%41.1%

2.2%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Much

Worse

Worse Remain

Same

Better Much

Better

% o

f R

esp

on

den

tsEconomic Outlook for AL

Q1 15 vs to Q2 15

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 21

52.951.9

51.2

55.6 55.554.2

57.4 57.6

45

50

55

60

Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15

Index

Val

ue

Economic Outlook Index

AL Q2 13 – Q2 15


Q2 15 Index

Up 0.2 pts

Hiring Outlook AL

Q1 15 vs Q2 15

0.0%

11.2%

52.2%

33.5%

3.1%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Strong

Decrease

Moderate

Decrease

No

Change

Moderate

Increase

Strong

Increase

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts


47.0

50.1 50.849.6

51.1

54.9

52.5

56.3 57.1

40

45

50

55

60

Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15

Index

Val

ue

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

Hiring Outlook Index

AL Q2 13 – Q2 15

Q2 15 Index

Up 0.8 pts

24

Sales Outlook AL

Q1 15 vs Q2 15

0.9%

12.9%

30.4%

50.9%

4.9%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Strong

Decrease

Moderate

Decrease

No

Change

Moderate

Increase

Strong

Increase

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts


53.9

57.8

54.3 54.1

61.6

59.7

56.6

60.661.5

50

55

60

65

Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15

Index

Val

ue


Sales Outlook Index

AL Q2 13 – Q2 15

Q2 15 Index

Up 0.9 pts

26

1.3%

11.2%

55.4%

29.0%

3.1%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Strong

Decrease

Moderate

Decrease

No

Change

Moderate

Increase

Strong

Increase

% o

f R

esp

ond

ents


Capital Expenditures Outlook

AL Q1 15 to Q2 15

27

47.7

50.7

48.449.6

53.752.6 52.5

55.9 55.4

40

45

50

55

60

Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15

Index

Val

ue


Q2 15 Index

Down 0.5 pts

Capital Expenditures Outlook

AL Q2 13 – Q2 15

28

CEAZ Survey Member’s

Chamber of Commerce

29

• Results for Seven Economic

Predictions

• Five Point Scale

• Index value = Sum of Item Values

Multiplied by Response Percentages

• 50 Organizations Represented

• First Year. No Comparison Data

0.0%

7.0%

38.0%

44.0%

11.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Much

Worse

Worse Remain

Same

Better Much

Better

% o

f R

esp

on

den

tsEconomic Outlook

CEAZ Next 12 Months

Source: JSU CED 30

Index 3.60

0.0%5.0%

79.0%

12.0%5.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Major Cut

Back

Cut Back Remain

Same

Increase Major

Increase

% o

f R

esp

on

den

tsEmployment Outlook

CEAZ Next 12 Months

Source: JSU CED 31

Index 3.16

0.0%

7.0%

36.0%

45.0%

11.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Much

Worse

Worse Remain

Same

Better Much

Better

% o

f R

esp

on

den

tsDemand Outlook

CEAZ Next 12 Months

Source: JSU CED 32

Index 3.61

0.0% 2.0%

43.0%39.0%

16.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Major Cut

Back

Cut Back Remain

Same

Increase Major

Increase

% o

f R

esp

on

den

tsNew Product Intentions

CEAZ Next 12 Months

Source: JSU CED 33

Index 3.68

0.0% 2.0%

86.0%

9.0%2.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Major Cut

Back

Cut Back Remain

Same

Increase Major

Increase

% o

f R

esp

on

den

tsNew Outlet Intentions

CEAZ Next 12 Months

Source: JSU CED 34

Index 3.11

0.0% 2.0%

45.0%48.0%

5.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Major

Reduction

Reduction Remain

Same

Increase Major

Increase

% o

f R

esp

on

den

tsEmployee Compensation

CEAZ Next 12 Months

Source: JSU CED 35

Index 3.54

2.0% 2.0%

50.0%

39.0%

7.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Major

Reduction

Reduction Remain

Same

Increase Major

Increase

% o

f R

esp

on

den

tsAdvertising Intentions

CEAZ Next 12 Months

Source: JSU CED 36

Index 3.45

37

CEAZ Survey: Largest

Response Category by %

• Overall Outlook– Slightly Better 44%

• Number of Employees – No Change 79%

• Demand for Products – Slightly Better 45%

• New Products – No Change 43%

• Number of Outlets – No Change 86%

• Employee Pay – Slight Increase 48%

• Advertising Spending – No Change 50%

CEAZ : Population Trends

2007-2014 in Thousands

301304

306

315

311313 313 313

290

300

310

320

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

In 1

,00

0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 38

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Per Capita Personal Income

CEAZ 2007 – 2013

$28,664

$29,333$29,016

$29,809

$30,607

$31,625$32,247

$27,000

$29,000

$31,000

$33,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201339

Per Capita Personal Income

CEAZ % of AL 2007-2013

87.4%

87.0%

88.0%

87.9%

87.4%

88.0%

88.4%

86.5%

87.0%

87.5%

88.0%

88.5%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Average Wage Per Job

CEAZ 2007 – 2013

$31,837

$32,901 $32,859

$34,122 $34,125

$34,795

$35,684

$30,000

$32,000

$34,000

$36,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201341

Ave Wage Per Job CEAZ

% of AL 2007-2013

86.6% 86.6%

85.1%

86.1%

84.3% 84.2%

85.8%

83%

84%

85%

86%

87%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201342Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Alabama Ave

Hourly Wage 2013

Wage Ranges

$14.03 - $15.50

$15.55 - $16.79

$17.06 - $18.16

$18.80 - $20.55

$22.23 - $26.10Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 43

$17.28

Labor Force CEAZ

2007- 2014

142,420

141,615

140,638

136,850

136,522

134,345

133,761

131,429

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 44

-1.74% 13-14 Months

Labor Force CEAZ

Jan - Apr 2015

128,464

129,721130,202

131,866

126,000

128,000

130,000

132,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr

+2.65% since Jan

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 45

Employment CEAZ

2007- 2014

136,441

133,143

123,594

120,918

122,488

123,077

123,310

122,025

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 46

-1.04% 13-14 Months

Employment CEAZ

Jan - Apr 2015

120,227

122,125122,528

124,615

119,000

120,000

121,000

122,000

123,000

124,000

125,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr

+3.65% since Jan


4.3%

6.2%

12.7% 11.9%

10.5%

8.5%7.9%

7.1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Unemployment Rate

CEAZ 2007- 2014


-.8% 13-14 Months

6.4%

5.8% 5.9%

5.4%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Unemployment Rate

CEAZ Jan - Apr 2015

-1.00% since Jan


Alabama

Unemployment RatesApril 2015

Preliminary State Rate

(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

State Ave – 5.3%Unemployment Rate

6.8% and Below

6.9% - 8.3%

8.4% and Above

5.4%


118

123

128

133

138

Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10

In T

hou

sand

s

-16,684 Jobs, 12.14%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Peak to

Trough % Change CEAZ

Jan 07- Jan 10

51

Employment Peak to

Trough % Change CEAZ vs

AL & MSAs Jan 07- Jan 10

-10.7%-12.1%

-8.1%

-11.7%-11.3%

-12.8%

-8.9%

-11.39%

-4.3%

-9.1% -9.1%

-10.2%-14%

-9%

-4%

1%

AL

CE

AZ

Au

b

Bh

am

Deca

Do

th

Flo

r

Gad

s

Hu

nt

Mo

b

Mo

nt

Tu

sc


114

123

132

141

J 07 J 08 J 09 J 10 J 11 J 12 J 13 J 14 J 15

In T

hou

sand

s -12,784 Jobs (9.39%)

Employment Peak to Now

CEAZ Jan 07- Mar 15


Employment Peak to Now

% Change CEAZ vs AL

MSAs Dec 07- Apr 15


-4.1%

-9.4%

8.4%

-3.2%-7.2%

-9.0%-7.6% 7.9%

0.8%

-3.7%-2.7%

9.3%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

AL

CE

AZ

Au

b

Bh

am

Deca

Doth

Flo

r

Gad

s

Hu

nt

Mob

Mon

t

Tu

sc

55

Manufacturing Sector

Employment CEAZ


23.424.3 23.9

22.421.4

18.217.3 17.6

18.419.2

20.0

15

18

20

23

25

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

In T

hou

sand

s


56

Service Sector

Employment CEAZ


49.350.1

50.7

53.652.5

49.4 49.4

50.751.5 51.6 51.3

45

48

50

53

55

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

In T

hou

sand

s


57

Federal Sector

Employment CEAZ


5.17

5.65

6.006.26 6.18 6.22 6.22

5.88

5.29

4.844.56

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

In T

hou

sand

s


CEAZ: Labor Market

Summary

• Labor Force – Down from historic highs

– Up recently

• Employment – Down from historic highs

– Up recently

• Unemployment – Down from recent highs

– Trending lower

• Economy in Region

has recovered to

some extent– State and local business

leaders remain cautious

– Other areas of state have

seen more significant

recovery

58

59

State of Alabama Update

CEAZ 2015

• Workforce

Dynamics

• Economic

Indicators

• Strategic

Drivers

• Education

• Achievemens 2003

• Other Issues

59

Workforce DynamicsPopulation for Alabama

2002-2014 in Millions


4.374.384.41

4.554.59

4.634.67

4.70

4.78 4.80 4.82 4.83 4.85

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

in 1

,00

0,0

00

60

Percent Population Change

Regional Comparison

2000-2010

9.77.5

9.1

17.618.3

1.4

4.3

18.5

15.3

11.5

20.6

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX

% P

op C

han

ge

61Source: U.S. Census Bureau

62

Percent Population Change

Regional Comparison

2010- July 2014

3.3

1.4 1.7

4.2 4.2

2.6

0.9

4.3 4.5

3.2

7.2

0

2

4

6

8

US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX

% P

op C

han

ge


1. New York 20,092,883 + 2.69%

118. Huntsville 441,086 + 5.63%

127. Mobile 415,123 + 0.52%

330. Anniston 115,916 - 2.24%

381. Carson NV 54,522 - 1.36%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Michael Barone, Washington Examimer 63

Population Changes381 Metropolitan Statistical

Areas (MSAs) Change in Pop (2010 Census - July 2014)

64

Population Changes

State MSAs With Fastest-

Growth From:

July 2013 – July 2014

Of the Top 20 MSAs by Percent Change

Florida - 6 N.C. - 2 Ala. - 1

Texas - 4 S.C. - 2 (Daphne)

From: 2000 U.S. census to July 2014

51% of Pop Growth Occurred in 27 MSAs

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Michael Barone, Washington Examimer

65Source: Atlas Van Lines Migration Patterns Study 2014

Workforce Dynamics -

Population Shift Atlas Van

Lines Moving Trends 2014

Alabama Non-Farm

Employment 1990 – Mar

2015

Source: BLS, Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations 66

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

Em

ploy

men

t in

Mill

ion

s 2.01

1.94Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Nonfarm Employment

1946 – April 2015

in Millions

Source: BLS

100

110

120

130

140

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Emp

loye

d in

Mill

ion

s 138.4

Jan2008 Apr2015

141.4

129.6

Feb2010

67

Payroll Nonfarm Employment

Regional Comparison Percent

Change Dec 2007 – Feb 2015

68

2.1

-3.1

0.3 0.81.8

2.7

-2.9

1.32.0

1.5

11.8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

U.S. AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Source: Bureau of Labor Stats (BLS), U.S. Census Bureau

Seasonally Adjusted

Payroll Nonfarm

Employment Percent Change

– Lowest/Highest

Dec 2007 – Feb 2015

Source: BLS 69

2.1

-4.5 -3.1 -2.9 -2.8 -2.2

6.8 7.08.3

11.8

30.2

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

US NV AL MS MA NJ CO AK UT TX ND

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate for

Alabama 2004 – Mar 2015


5.1

3.8 3.5 3.5

5.4

9.8 9.99.5

7.36.6 6.7

5.7

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% U

nem

plo

yed

Seasonally

Adjusted

70

Unemployment Rate

Regional - Mar 2015

5.4 5.7 5.6 5.7

6.36.6 6.8

5.4

6.76.3

4.2

33.5

44.5

55.5

66.5

77.5

8

US AL AR FL GA KT LA MS NC SC TN TX

Une

mplo

ym

ent

Rat

e P

erce

nt

5.1

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS 71

Seasonally Adjusted

5.5

2.63.1

3.4 3.7 3.8

6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8

2

3

4

5

6

7

8U

S

NB

ND

UT

SD

MN ID LA

W.V

a

SC

MS

NV

DC

Un

empl

oym

ent

Rat

e

Per

cen

t

7.17.7

Source: BLS 72

Unemployment Rates

Lowest and Highest States

Mar 2015

3.4

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S.

Employment–Population

Ratio 1975 - April 2015

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Per

cen

t of

Popu

lati

on

Em

plo

yed

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 73

59.3%

64.4%

Portion of working age Pop’n employed

Alabama

Employment–Population

Ratio 1982 – Mar 2015

48

52

56

60

64

68

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

% o

f Po

pula

tion

Em

ploy

ed

Source: Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

53.2%

64.4%

74

Source: BLS, Social Security Admin.

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014

Par

tici

pat

ion R

ate

Per

cent

67.1%

63.362.8%

75

U.S. Labor Participation

Rate 1946 – April 2015

Participation Rate=16 years and over working/Looking for work

Total of Population of same age group

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, Monthly Labor Review, Dec. 2013

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1992 2002 2012 2022

55 - 64

65 +

AGE25 - 54

BLS – Age of Labor

Force Percent Participation

Rate 1992 - 2022

76

Percent

11.5 %

23.0%

67.5%

U.S. Employment Statistics

1990 – MAR 2015

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Perc

ent

Mil

lion

s

Employed(million)

Labor Force (million)

Unemployed Rate (percent)

Perc

ent

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics 77

148.3

156.9

U.S. Employment Statistics

Employed in Millions

1990 – Mar 2015

0

25

50

75

100

125

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Mill

ions

Full-Time Part-Time

Perc

ent


121.1 121.0

24.9 27.3

148.3146.0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Em

plo

ym

ent

in M

illi

on

s

Manuf.

Prof/Bus

Edu/Health

Gov

Finance & Real Est

Seasonally Adjusted


U.S. Employment by Sector

1990 – Mar 2015 in Millions

Alabama Employment by

Sector 1990 – Mar 2015

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Em

ploy

men

t in

1,0

00s

Manufacturing

Government

Education/Health

Professional/Business

Financial Activity

Source: BLS, Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations 80

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Employment by Sector

1990 – Mar 2015 in Millions

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Em

plo

ym

ent

in M

illi

on

s

Manuf.

Trans & Warehouse2

Goods

Seasonally Adjusted


Alabama vs. U.S.

Value Added Activities

Share of GDP 2013

11.8%

20.2%

16.8%

13.2%

5.6%

8.2%

6.5%

15.8%

5.7%7.4%

10.8%

7.1%

0%3%6%9%

12%15%18%21%24%

Non-

Durable

Manuf

Durable

Goods

Manuf

Ed &

Health

Prof &

Bus

Services

Gov Financial

& Real

Estate

Per

cen

t o

f G

DP U.S.

Ala

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, BEA, Alabama Economic Outlook82

2009 Ranking by Defense

Spending as Percent of State GDP

13.9 13.5

10.7

8.67.9

6.1 6.0 6.0 5.7

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

VA HI AK AL KT MD AZ MS MO SC

Def

ense

Sp

end

ing %

Sta

te

GD

P

7.0

Source: U.S. Dept. of Defense, U.S. BEA, U.S. Census Bureau, Bloomberg Government 83

Ranking by Defense Spending

as a Percent of State GDP

2009 vs. 2013

8.6%

6.1% 6.0% 6.0%7.0%7.9%

13.9%

10.7%

13.5%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

VA HI AK AL KT MD AZ MS MO

Per

cen

t o

f G

DP

2009

2013

Source: U.S. Dept. of Defense, U.S. BEA, U.S. Census Bureau, Bloomberg Gov., The PEW Charitable Trust84

7.8%

17.0%

12.9%

8.1%

Source: U.S. Dept. of Defense (OEA)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Def

ense

Sp

end

ing $

Bil

lio

n

63.3

85

U.S. Defense Spending

$Billions

FY 2009 Constant Dollars

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Em

ploy

men

t in

Mill

ion

s

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), BLS

Economic Indicator U.S.

Construction Employment

1982 – Mar 2015

6.34

7.69

86

5.51

Alabama Construction

Employment

1990 – Feb 2015

60

80

100

120

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Em

ploy

men

t in

Tho

usan

ds

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 87

112.7

81.5

73.7

Housing Statistics for AL

April 2014 vs. April 2015

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

Apr 2014 Apr 2015 % Change

Total Homes

Sold3831 4324 12.87%

Avg. Selling

Price$151,194 $157,473 4.20%

Days on

Market163 160 -2.00%

Units Listed 33,592 32,887 -2.10%

88

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Census Bureau

0.00

0.30

0.60

0.90

1.20

1.50

1.80

2.10

2.40

2.70

3.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total

Single

Multi 5+

Million

2,155,300

1,682,000

389,000

382,000

640,000

1,052,000

Peak (2005)

U.S. Building Permits

Privately-Owned Housing

Units 2003-2014

89

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Census Bureau

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

21.0

24.0

27.0

30.0

33.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total (06)

Multi 5+

(000) 32,034

Single 24,654

7547

13369

3535

9506

Ala. Building Permits for

Privately-Owned Housing

Units 2003-2014

90


9

11

13

15

17

19

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Estimates of Total U.S.

Housing Units Vacant

1990 – Qtr.1 2015

Total Number of Units Vacant

(millions)

Units Vacant

(Percent)

91

18.817.3

14.4%13.0%

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Asking Price ($000) Asking Rent ($)


Nominal Dollars

92

U.S. Median Asking Price

Asking Rent for Vacant

Housing Units 2001 – Qtr.1 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

In M

illi

on

sEconomic Indicator -

Automotive U.S. Light Vehicle

Sales 1980- Qtr.1 2015 in Millions

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, BEA 93

Seasonally Adjusted

-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

1967 1976 1986 1995 2005 2014

Per

cent

Cha

nge

in G

DP

Tho

usan

ds

of U

nits

/Qua

rter

Source: BEA

GDP

%Change/Qtr

Truck Sales (000)/Qtr

94

U. S. Heavy Trucks Sales

(Class 4-8) 1967 – Qtr1-2015

Thousands of Units/QuarterSales (000)

GDP %

Source: U.S. ESA, Federal Reserve System, Int. Org. of Motor Vehicle Manuf. (OICA)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

U.S. Motor Vehicle

Car & Lt. Truck Production

1986 – 2014 Millions

Total for All Auto

Manufacturers (millions)

Total Foreign-Affiliated Mfg.

(millions)

95

12.6011.66

5.1

2.51

Millions

Alabama Motor Vehicle

Production 2004 -2014

96Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA), Alabama Automotive

Manufacturers Association (AAMA)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

In T

hou

san

ds

994

Alabama 2014 Export $7.3Billion Vehicles and

Parts

Source: U.S. BLS, BEA,

0

3

6

9

12

15

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

In 1

00s

of

Th

ou

san

ds

97

911,300

1,313,000

U.S. Motor Vehicles and Parts

Manufacturing Employment:

1990 – April 2015

Source: U. S. BEA, BLS

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Em

ploy

men

t in

100

0sAlabama Motor Vehicle and

Parts Employment

1990 – Mar 2015

Employment –

Vehicle Manuf

(000)

Employment – Parts

Manuf (000)

98

MB

Honda Hyundai

IH Toyota

24.8

12.6

Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama

Auto and

Light Truck

Southeast Auto

Industry

*Assembles Dodge Sprinter vans

65

85

20

55

85

Heavy Truck

Freightliner Custom Chassis

Peterbilt

65

Nissan GM

BMW

Mercedes

GM

GM

GM

Ford Toyota

Freightliner

Freightliner

Volvo/Mack Trucks

Nissan

Honda

Kia

65

20

Hyundai

Sprinter

Ford

59

Volkswagen

Toyota 22

99

Source: 2007 EDPA Automotive Database

Automotive Industry Clustersin Alabama

LegendConcentration of Automotive SuppliersSuppliers by Zip Code

1

2

3

4 - 6

7 - 11

20

59

65

59

20

65

85

10

There are more than 383

Automotive Companies and

Suppliers in Alabama.

100

Economic Drivers

Automotive Trends?

Energy Issues?

Ethanol Blending Wall

CAFÉ Regulations

101

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

102Source: U.S. DOT, FHWA

Miles Traveled (Trillions)

Year to Year %

Change in (Miles

Traveled)

Trillions of

Miles TraveledYr. to Yr.

% Change

1997-2007 Miles Traveled Increase

at a Decreasing Rate

U.S. Vehicle-Miles Traveled

vs. Year-over-Year Percent

Changes 1970-2014

U.S. Total Vehicle-Miles

Traveled vs. Per Capita Vehicle

Miles Traveled (VMT)

1970-2014

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

103Source: U.S. DOT, FHWA

Total Traveled (Trillions)

Per Capita VMT

104

Motor Vehicle Renewable

Fuel Blending Requirements

2002-2012-2022

Source: U.S. EIA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Renewable Fuel Billions of

Gallons

Blend Wall

10 %

Ethanol

EISA

Required By 2022

16 Bil gal Cellulosic

5 Bil Gal Biodiesel

Corn <=15 Bil gal

36 Billion gal

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013

Billi

on

s of

Gal

lon

s

Source: EIA 105

U.S. Gasoline Consumption

Billions of Gallons

1977 – Feb 2015

CAFÉ 1985 – 27.5 mpg

2016 – 35.5 mpg

2025 – 54.5 mpg

142.3

129.0

By 2022

Renewable Use Req (EISA)

36 Billion GallonsTotal, Corn <= 15 Bil

Cellulosic 16 Billion, Biodiesel 5 Bil

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 2019 2025

Billi

on

s of

Gal

lon

s

Source: EIA 106

U.S. Gasoline

Current and Projected Use

1977 – 2015 – 2025

CAFÉ 1985 – 27.5 mpg

2016 – 35.5 mpg

2025 – 54.5 mpg

142.3

113

Natural Gas (LPG)

Natural Gas /Fuel Question?

Major Players - Rail and Truck

Clean-Air Regulations

Conversion Cost?

Price Stability?

107

108

U.S. Gas Production in

Conventional Fields,

Lower 48

109

Alabama Shale-Gas

Development

Neal (Floyd) Shale

(Mississippian)

Devonian Shale

Conasauga Shale

(Cambrian)

110

TRANSFORMATION

Locomotive Industry Today

EMD GE LNG ?

EMD GE

Alabama Aerospace

Source: nasa.gov, airbus.com

Airbus A320 Delta Atlas V

111

112

Port of Mobile

Source: Alabama State Port Authority, Alabama Seaport Sp13

CEAZ: Summary

• Labor Force – Down from historic highs

– Up recently

• Employment – Down from historic highs

– Up recently

• Unemployment – Down from recent highs

– Trending lower

• Economy in Region

has recovered to

some extent– State and local business

leaders remain cautious

– Other areas of state have

seen more significant

recovery

113

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