Information needs for adaptive Information needs for adaptive management of the carbon management of the carbon

cycle: cycle: From regional carbon budgets From regional carbon budgets to a holistic decision-support to a holistic decision-support

frameworkframeworkDennis Ojima, Dennis Ojima,

Petra TSCHAKERT, Petra TSCHAKERT,

Michael RaupachMichael Raupach

OUTLINEOUTLINE

•Rationale•Framework for Adaptive Management of Regional C Budgets

• Multi-Criteria Decision Support Systems

MITIGATON ACTIONS ARE LOCALMITIGATON ACTIONS ARE LOCAL• Efforts to further understand the regional C sources and

sinks around the world have triggered a greater focus on accounting, at regional scales, of the changes in C management and patterns of C exchange.

• Current efforts to develop regional budgets have estimated fossil fuel emissions, ecosystem sources and sinks, and ocean uptake, although mostly separately.

• Few studies have incorporated the role C management activities on regional differences in C sources and sinks.

REGIONAL APPROACHREGIONAL APPROACH

For the development of an integrative regional C management framework it is fundamental to identify the current and likely future sizes of regional C stocks, the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers that change these stocks, and the decision-making processes that underlie these drivers.

Urban-Settlement Area

Multiple Source and Sinks

Spatial-temporal Emissions Spatial-temporal Emissions (County-level & Daily)(County-level & Daily)

•Point source (facility level) emission sources

•Mobile source emission sources

•Area source county level emission sources

Guerny, Ojima, Denning, Marland, and more with NASA Support

CSU Carbon Emissions

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1998 (est) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Met

ric

To

ns

CO

2

Natural gas

Electricity

Steam Plant

1998-2001 Mean Emissions

Baron, Advani and others at CSU

Chicago Carbon Exchange Initiative with CSU

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006

ActualTarget

Target levels

• Heterogeneity of soils within mapping units• Complex crop and tillage history• Strict Input format requirements

Carbon Flux and Storage

Data Integration for Modeling C Cyclingof Managed Lands in the US

Climate DataSoils Data Land Use

History

Cropping Practices

ExperimentalScenarios

CenturyModel

Scale/Polygons/Mapping Units

INTEGRATION SCHEMEINTEGRATION SCHEMECENTURY - ASM LINKAGE

WaterBudget

PlantProduction

InorganicNutrients

SoilOrganicMatter

ASMPrices

Costs

Land Use Mgmt Crop Budget Costs

NetProfit

Land Use Allocation

Yield

seed cost $/halabor $/hrmachinery $/halabor $/hrchemical cost $/halabor $/hr

fuel $/hamachinery $/km

-planting

-harvest

-chemicals

Crop

Tillage

Irrigation

Fertilizer

water $/cm

fertilizer $/halabor $/hr

Tschakert, Tieszen, Tappan, Parton, Delgrosso, Ojima and othersJournal of Arid Environments (Nov) 2004

Tschakert, Tieszen, Tappan, Parton, Delgrosso, Ojima and othersJournal of Arid Environments (Nov) 2004

Largest gains associated with river basins and in the more mesic regions of Senegal

Multiple Criteria ApproachMultiple Criteria Approach

• C-mitigation projects need to be designed to demonstrate results in the short, mid and long-term;

• C-mitigation projects have to be tailored for specific socio-ecological systems aiming for the establishment of a sustainable system with a long life-expectancy;

• Management practices need to target sustainable development taking into account the complex, non-linear behaviour of socio-ecological systems

• Full risk/uncertainty assessments are obligatory;• Projects need to be linked to capacity building,

technology transfer; • An integrative management plan should treat the system

as a socio-ecological system

TRADE-OFFS AND TRADE-OFFS AND CONSTRAINTSCONSTRAINTS

• Temporal trade-offs need to be made between short-term and long-term goals

• Spatial trade-offs need to be made at the inter-regional level to avoid ‘leakage’ of energy, people, and materials.

• Thresholds or ‘critical scales’ need to be identified in order to avoid disasters; Redman and Kinzig (2003) argue that one of the critical requirements for the ability to flexibly manage and respond for resilience is to perceive, interpret, and understand ‘early warning’ indicators of undesirable state change.

• Minimum requirements should be met across all criteria to ensure diversity

Perception of climate change and its impact

on human welfare

INSTITUTIONS:Property rights

Regulatory rulesCultural practices

MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES

DECISIONS

LAND USE

cropping

forestry

rangeland

urban

conservation

perceptionsobjectives

regional economics

MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES

extraction

inputs

regeneration

site preparation

Environmental conditionstechnologyobjectives

institutional constraints

Perception of other human needs

SCALE

Environment / Resource System

MICROSub-Models

SPATIAL URBAN EXPANSION MODEL

BIO-PHYSICAL CROP MODEL

AGRO-ECONOMIC Model

Behavioral Models

Land UserLand Use Conversion - within Agriculture

MigrationAgent Decision Model

Model Structure of AGENT-LUC

PopulationPrice Supply

Regulations

National Scenario Crop Demand Estimation MACROSub-Model

International Market

Contingent stakeholdersContingent stakeholders

• Owners and managers of C sources and sinks: energy industry, agriculture (including forestry), manufacturing, transportation.

• Local and regional governments implementing C policy: regional, provincial/state, urban, township/county.

• Financiers and suppliers of C reduction technologies and methods: lenders to buyers, technology suppliers, commercial banks, international financial institutions, and individual or institutional investors.

• C market intermediaries and influencers: consultants, NGOs, media, consumer groups, and trade associations.

• Underrepresented populations and populations at risk: women, youth, indigenous cultures, migrant workers.

Model-data synthesis for carbon management

Data Land Atmosphere Ocean Economies Societies …

Models Land biosphere Atmosphere Ocean Anthropogenic C …

Model-data synthesis(information exchange)

Products: Consistent estimates of

• C stores, fluxes• C budgets• Trends in stores, fluxes

Evaluation of • models, data, priors

Tools: Data assimilation Parameter estimation Bayesian inference Neural network analysis

Prior beliefs Constraints Expert opinion Intuition …

Information Use

Decision makers (multiple agents) seeking optimal system behaviour (multiple goals)

• International (treaties)

• National (policy)

• Local (action)

Model-data synthesis cycle

Adaptive management

cycle

Supply of informationEvaluation of informationAdaptive use of information

SUMMARYSUMMARYAs we improve our understanding of the controls of

source-sink emissions of C and we employ “top-down/bottom-up” techniques to reduce our uncertainties, we must apply these scientific concepts to develop strategies for mitigating C emissions and to work in concert with a broad set of stakeholder and decision makers.

Regional multiple criteria approaches are useful for:Land use actions, from household to regional and global approaches across social and biophysical characteristics

Energy Emissions from local uses to regional approaches and across sectors to find solutions which meet multiple goals