information, forecasting and corruption · information, forecasting and corruption terminology...
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Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
J. James Reade
University of Reading
4th September 2014
15th OxMetrics User Group Meeting,Cass Business School
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Outline
Introduction
Terminology
Theory I
Data and Results I
Theory II
Data and Results IIOverroundFavourite-Longshot Bias
Conclusions
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Outline
I Problem: Corruption in sporting events;I Commonly match fixing (overall event) and spot fixing
(sub-events).I Distorts productive activity, creating huge economic rents.I Destroy economic value of sport: Uncertainty reduced.
I Economics of sport:I Exploiting data richness to learn about economic behaviour. . .I . . . and applying economic theories to context of sports.
I Aim: Use available data to understand/detect corrupt activity.
I Information allocation issue. Rent seekers vs producers.I Insiders place bets, introduces information into market.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Outline
I Various detection/investigation approaches:I Odds as forecasts. Different groups of forecasters have
different information.
1. Evaluate forecasts — not necessarily errors but discrepancies.
I Odds not necessarily as forecasts. Bookmaker behaviouralresponse to insiders.
2. Withdrawal of odds.3. Overround.4. Favourite-longshot bias.
I Main problem: No genuine information on corrupt sportingevents.
I Spillover(s):I Collection of massive dataset of dynamic pricing behaviour.I ‘Conventional’ study of forecast accuracy.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Terminology
Terminology
I Forecasts: Prices (odds) from bookmakers, tips from punters,forecasts from econometric models.
I Events (j): Team 1 (usually at home) to win, draw, team 2(usually visiting team) to win for a given football match (i).
I Traditional odds: Oij , winnings for £1 stake, j = 1, 2, 3.
I Decimal odds: Dij , winnings inclusive of £1 stake.
I Overround: ORi =∑3
j=1D−1ij .
I Implied probability: Pij = (DijORi )−1.
I Favourite longshot bias (FLB): Expected return increasing inPij .
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Theory I
I Numerous forecasts of same event:
1. Bookmakers.2. Prediction markets.3. Tipster predictions.4. Econometric model.
I Significant disagreement between forecasts implies one (ormore) of:
I Different information sets.I Different forecast models process information differently (or
not at all).
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Theory I
I Previous research: Discrepancy between (1) and (4).I Plot from Reade (2013)
I Briefly today:I Focus on bookies, prediction markets and tipsters.I Disagreement: Standard deviation of implied probabilities.I Investigate withdrawal of prices by bookmakers.
I Problems:I Numerous alternative explanations for differences.I Insufficient outcome data on which to appraise method.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results I
I Focus on international matches following 2013 Interpol pressconference.
I 13078 matches scraped from www.oddsportal.com/soccer/.I Screenshot of data source
I 62 bookmakers, 3 prediction markets, set of tipsters (websiteusers).
I 4,423 matches by tipsters.I 30.7 bookmakers per match.I 3 prediction markets per match.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results I
DisagreementI Standard deviation of all outcome predictions by:
I Event (home win, draw, away win) and match popularity.
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Bookmaker disagreement over offered odds
Number of bookmakers offering prices for a match
Dis
agre
emen
t
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Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results I
But little agreement on matches
38
18
48
36
8
26
30
Home Draw
Away
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results I
Withdrawn Prices Plot
I Bookmakers withdraw prices in days before event occurs:Why?
I Event foregone conclusion.I Event known to be fixed (hence also foregone conclusion).
I 13078 matches:I 4560 have no withdrawals.I 33 matches see all bookmakers withdraw odds.I Half of all matches have 4% or fewer bookies withdrawing.
I High disagreement matches and 33 are:I Friendlies, youth matches and womens’ matches.I No ‘important’ matches.I Corroborates Reade and Akie (2013) findings.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Theory II
Theory II
I Betting industry simplified version of financial markets:I Short time horizon, simple observable outcomes.I Bookmakers and betting exchanges act as intermediaries.
I Overround: Transactions cost — cost of £1 return.I Margin for bookmakers, expect competed down to operating
costs by competitive market.
I FLB: Various explanations, including:I Risk love: Lower returns for higher risk.I Information: Bookmakers influence uninformed bettors.I Misperceptions: Bettors cannot distinguish between low
probability events.
I Shin (1991, 1992, 1993): Influence of insider trading onbetting market outcomes.
I Drives both overround and favourite-longshot bias.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Theory II
More on Shin
I Insider information exists when markets open.
I Insider knows which horse will win.I Bookmakers must price accordingly:
I Larger overround and FLB.I FLB should increase absolute/squares forecast errors.
I What if insiders appear after market opens?I Shin: Comparative statics, no dynamics.
I Movements in overround and FLB?I Information set increases (more bookmakers post prices)?I Or response to specific information?
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
I Expanded dataset of bookmaker and betting exchange prices:I 4682 matches, 4.9m observations; 1048 per match. Screenshot
I All prices, times of updates, if/when withdrawn, indication ofcollection problems.
I On average, 44 bookmakers per match (maximum 75, total80).
Total Prices Posted by Bookmakers in Regions
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croatiaczech−republic
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scotlandserbia
singaporeslovakiaslovenia
south−africasouth−america
south−koreasweden
switzerlandthailandukraine
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● ● ●Less than 111 Between 111 and 503 Greater than 503
Larger Graphic
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
Data Plot LA Galaxy vs SJ Earthquakes Rosario vs Quilmes
Jun 24 Jun 29 Jul 04 Jul 09 Jul 14
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
Prices for Criciuma vs Fluminense, Brazilian Serie A
Time/Date
Impl
ied
Pro
babi
lity
Criciuma to win Draw Fluminense to win
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
Lots of Prices Withdrawn
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0.8
Prices for Mariehamn vs Rovaneimi, Veikkausliiga, Finland
Time/Date
Impl
ied
Pro
babi
lity
Mariehamn to win Draw Rovaneimi to win
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
Questions we can ask...?
I How often are prices adjusted?
I More frequent adjustments with bookmaker activity, nearkick-off?
I Specific to corruption context:I Overround.I Favourite-longshot bias/Forecast errors.
I Anticipate both larger for many reasons including corruption.I Early steps: Model both. To do: Residual analysis.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
Overround
Overround Regression Model Overround Plot
orit = β0 + β1Nbookiesit + β2pricesupdatedit
+ β3entropyit + β4tKOit + ui + εit .(1)
I Fixed effects for operating costs.I Competition: Number of bookies posting odds.
I Entropy to measure competitiveness of match (by bookie k):
Hik = −∑j
Pijk log(Pijk) (2)
I Range between 0 (Pijk ∈ {0, 1}) and 1.1 (Pijk = 1/3 ∀ j).
I Information arrival: Number of updates to odds.
I Remaining time variation? SIS?
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
Overround
Overround Regression Model Full Output Overround Plot
Dependent variable:
Overround
Constant 1.110∗∗∗
(0.0002)
time to KO −0.000∗∗∗
(0.000)
bookies posted −0.0001∗∗∗
(0.00000)
obsnum −0.00001∗∗∗
(0.00000)
entropy 0.001∗∗∗
(0.0001)
Observations 2,861,779R2 0.359Adjusted R2 0.359Residual Std. Error 0.028 (df = 2861699)F Statistic 20,327.820∗∗∗ (df = 79; 2861699)F Statistic (fixed effects) 16,580∗∗∗ (df = 75; 2861699)
Note: ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
Overround
Overround Regression
I Operating costs/efficiency: Fixed effects highly significant.
I Competition: Overround falls 0.01% per bookie posting; lowerby 0.75% if all post.
I News: Each update reduces overround by 0.001%.1
I Time until kick-off: Overround higher nearer kick-off. 0.07%per 24 hours.2
I Decidedness: Tighter contest, higher overround.
I What remains?
150% of matches have more than 500 updates, 18% more than 1000.290% of observations within 3 days of kick-off.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
Favourite-Longshot Bias
Testing for Favourite-Longshot Bias (FLB)
I One common test for FLB is Mincer-Zarnowitz regression test:
yij = β0 + β1yij + εij . (3)
I Embodies two ideas: E (yij) = E (yij) andCov(yij , yij) = Var(yij).
I Blunt instrument for learning characteristics of bias:I Like Sinclair et al. (2010) augment with dummies.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
Favourite-Longshot Bias
FLB Regression Summary Full Output Plot (time) Plot (overall)
Dependent variable: outcome
α β
Coefficient 0.067∗∗∗ 0.862∗∗∗
(0.006) (0.013)
time to KO 0.00000∗∗∗ −0.00000∗∗∗
(0.000) (0.000)
bookies posted −0.001∗∗∗ 0.001∗∗∗
(0.0001) (0.0001)
obsnum 0.00004∗∗∗ −0.0001∗∗∗
(0.00000) (0.00000)
entropy −0.103∗∗∗ 0.180∗∗∗
(0.006) (0.011)
Observations 2,861,779R2 0.119Adjusted R2 0.119Residual Std. Error 0.460 (df = 2861619)F Statistic 2,436.754∗∗∗ (df = 159; 2861619)F Statistic (fixed effects) 14.281∗∗∗ (df = 150; 2861619)
Note: ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Data and Results II
Favourite-Longshot Bias
FLB Regression
I Fixed effects (slope also): Significant (pushing into FLB).
I Decidedness: Will generally push into FLB territory.
I Competition: Significant impact on both coefficients.
I Information: Updating of competitors impacts FLB.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Conclusions
Conclusions
I Corruption big problem in many sports.
I Must affect expected outcomes — but where is information?I Focus on betting markets:
I Fixers must bet to profit from activity.I Betting markets appear to be efficient from other research.
I Basic research suggests that non-important matches appearsuspect.
I Ongoing research: More data = more insight?
I Further research: IIS/SIS/etc may help detect matches.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Back to slide
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Back to slide
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Total Prices Posted by Bookmakers in Regions
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lithuanialuxembourg
maltamexico
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north−central−americanorthern−ireland
norwayparaguay
perupoland
portugalromania
russiasaudi−arabia
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south−africasouth−america
south−koreasweden
switzerlandthailandukraine
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● ● ●Less than 111 Between 111 and 503 Greater than 503
Back to slide
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Data Plot II Go back Rosario vs Quilmes
●● ●● ●●●● ●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●● ●●●● ●●●●●●●●●● ●● ●●●● ●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●● ●●●● ●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●● ●● ●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●● ●●●● ●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Aug 02 Aug 04 Aug 06 Aug 08
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Prices for LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes, MLS
Time/Date
Impl
ied
Pro
babi
lity
LA Galaxy to win Draw SJ Earthquakes to win
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Data Plot III Go back LA Galaxy vs SJ Earthquakes
Jul 29 Aug 03 Aug 08
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Prices for Rosario Central vs Quilmes, Argentinian Primera Division
Time/Date
Impl
ied
Pro
babi
lity
Rosario Central to win Draw Quilmes to win
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Kaplan−Meier estimate with 95% confidence bounds
Days
surv
ival
func
tion
12bet
188bet
5dimes
888sport
bestbet
bet2be
bet365
bet−at−home
betclic
betclic−it
betcris
betdaq
betfairbetfred
betgun
betonline
betrallybetredkings
betsafebetsson
betvictor
betway
bovada
boylesports
bwinbwin−es
bwin−fr
bwin−it
coral
dafabet
doxxbet
expekt
fortuna−cz
fortunawin
france−pari
gobetgo
intertops
interwetteninterwetten−es
island−casinojetbull
marathonbet
mybet
nordicbet
noxwin
paddy−power
paddy−power−it
paf
pinnacle−sportssbobet
sportingbet superbahis
tipicotipico−it
tipsport−cz
unibet
unibet−frunibet−it
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Go back
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Kaplan−Meier estimate with 95% confidence bounds
Days
surv
ival
func
tion
>1000 p changes in hour=0, 100 mkt p chances in hour=0, <6h to KO=0>1000 p changes in hour=0, 100 mkt p chances in hour=1, <6h to KO=0>1000 p changes in hour=1, 100 mkt p chances in hour=0, <6h to KO=0>1000 p changes in hour=1, 100 mkt p chances in hour=0, <6h to KO=1>1000 p changes in hour=1, 100 mkt p chances in hour=1, <6h to KO=0>1000 p changes in hour=1, 100 mkt p chances in hour=1, <6h to KO=1
0 1 2 3 4 5
Go back
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Withdrawn Prices Go back
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0 10 20 30 40 50
010
2030
4050
60
Bookmakers offering and withdrawing odds
Number of bookmakers withdrawing prices for a match
Num
ber
of b
ookm
aker
s of
ferin
g pr
ices
for
a m
atch
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Go backDependent variable:
o.r
Constant 1.110∗∗∗
(0.0002)
time to KO −0.000∗∗∗
(0.000)
bookies posted −0.0001∗∗∗
(0.00000)
obsnum −0.00001∗∗∗
(0.00000)
entropy 0.001∗∗∗
(0.0001)
12bet 0.0004∗∗∗
(0.0001)
188bet 0.003∗∗∗
(0.0002)
5dimes −0.047∗∗∗
(0.0001)
888sport 0.0002(0.0002)
bestbet −0.010∗∗∗
(0.0001)
bet2be 0.005∗∗∗
(0.0002)
bet365 −0.014∗∗∗
(0.0002)
bet-at-home 0.018∗∗∗
(0.0002)
betclic 0.004∗∗∗
(0.0001)
betclic-it 0.001∗∗∗
(0.0002)
betcris −0.031∗∗∗
(0.0003)
betdaq −0.037∗∗∗
(0.0001)
betfred −0.004∗∗∗
(0.0002)
betgun −0.004∗∗∗
(0.0003)
betonline −0.009∗∗∗
(0.0002)
betrally −0.006∗∗∗
(0.0001)
betredkings −0.002∗∗∗
(0.0001)
betsafe 0.007∗∗∗
(0.0002)
betsson 0.009∗∗∗
(0.0002)
betvictor −0.029∗∗∗
(0.0001)
betway 0.004∗∗∗
(0.0002)
bovada −0.005∗∗∗
(0.001)
boylesports 0.011∗∗∗
(0.0002)
bwin 0.002∗∗∗
(0.0002)
bwin-es 0.002∗∗∗
(0.0002)
bwin-fr 0.055∗∗∗
(0.0004)
bwin-it −0.002∗∗∗
(0.0002)
coral 0.001∗∗∗
(0.0003)
dafabet 0.0001(0.0001)
doxxbet 0.011∗∗∗
(0.0002)
expekt 0.004∗∗∗
(0.0001)
fortuna-cz 0.003∗∗∗
(0.0002)
fortuna-sk 0.005∗∗∗
(0.0002)
fortunawin 0.003∗∗∗
(0.0002)
france-pari 0.075∗∗∗
(0.0004)
gobetgo −0.010∗∗∗
(0.0002)
instant-action-sports 0.011∗∗∗
(0.001)
intertops 0.007∗∗∗
(0.0003)
interwetten 0.026∗∗∗
(0.0002)
interwetten-es 0.026∗∗∗
(0.0002)
island-casino −0.047∗∗∗
(0.0001)
jetbull −0.010∗∗∗
(0.0001)
leon-bets 0.007∗∗∗
(0.0001)
luxbet 0.009∗∗∗
(0.0002)
marathonbet −0.054∗∗∗
(0.0002)
matchbook −0.077∗∗∗
(0.0002)
mybet −0.004∗∗∗
(0.0002)
nordicbet −0.001∗∗∗
(0.0002)
noxwin −0.010∗∗∗
(0.0001)
oddsring −0.008∗∗∗
(0.0001)
paddy-power 0.009∗∗∗
(0.0002)
paddy-power-it 0.011∗∗∗
(0.0002)
paf −0.002∗∗∗
(0.0002)
pinnacle-sports −0.066∗∗∗
(0.0002)
sbobet −0.002∗∗∗
(0.0001)
sportingbet 0.011∗∗∗
(0.0002)
sportium 0.018∗∗∗
(0.001)
sportsbetting −0.009∗∗∗
(0.0002)
stan-james −0.019∗∗∗
(0.0002)
superbahis 0.011∗∗∗
(0.0002)
tipico −0.007∗∗∗
(0.0002)
tipico-it −0.007∗∗∗
(0.0002)
tipsport-cz −0.004∗∗∗
(0.0002)
tipsport-sk −0.004∗∗∗
(0.0002)
titanbet −0.002∗∗∗
(0.0002)
tonybet −0.014∗∗∗
(0.0003)
top-bet 0.013∗∗∗
(0.002)
totepool −0.002∗∗∗
(0.0001)
unibet −0.001∗∗∗
(0.0002)
unibet-fr 0.051∗∗∗
(0.0002)
unibet-it −0.009∗∗∗
(0.0003)
william-hill 0.004∗∗∗
(0.0002)
william-hill-it −0.001∗∗∗
(0.0002)
winner −0.002∗∗∗
(0.0002)
youwin 0.014∗∗∗
(0.0002)
Observations 2,861,779R2 0.359Adjusted R2 0.359Residual Std. Error 0.028 (df = 2861699)F Statistic 20,327.820∗∗∗ (df = 79; 2861699)
Note: ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Overround as kick-off approaches OR Overview OR Regression
Over−round at kick−off time and days beforehand (by bookmaker)
Ove
r−ro
und
pinn
acle
−sp
orts
isla
nd−
casi
no5d
imes
mar
atho
nbet
mat
chbo
okbe
tcris
betv
icto
rto
nybe
tbe
tdaq
stan
−ja
mes
spor
tsbe
tting
beto
nlin
eje
tbul
lbe
tral
lybe
stbe
tno
xwin
bet3
65tip
spor
t−sk
tipsp
ort−
czun
ibet
−it
odds
ring
bova
dabe
tgun
bwin
−it
tipic
oco
ral
tipic
o−it
gobe
tgo
dafa
bet
12be
tno
rdic
bet
888s
port
top−
bet
titan
bet
win
ner
myb
et paf
betfr
edbe
tclic
−it
inst
ant−
actio
n−sp
orts
tote
pool
will
iam
−hi
ll−it
unib
etsp
ortiu
mfo
rtun
a−sk
sbob
etbo
yles
port
sfo
rtun
a−cz
fort
unaw
inw
illia
m−
hill
inte
rtop
sex
pekt
bwin
−es
betr
edki
ngs
luxb
etbe
tway
betc
licbw
inbe
t2be
188b
etbe
tsaf
ele
on−
bets
padd
y−po
wer
padd
y−po
wer
−it
doxx
bet
bets
son
spor
tingb
etsu
perb
ahis
unib
et−
fryo
uwin
bet−
at−
hom
ein
terw
ette
n−es
bwin
−fr
inte
rwet
ten
fran
ce−
pari
5%
10%
15%
−40
0−
300
−20
0−
100
010
0
t−st
atis
tics
Kick−off24 hours before48 hours before72 hours before96 hours before120 hours before
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Go backDependent variable: outcome0
α β
Coefficient 0.067∗∗∗ 0.862∗∗∗
(0.006) (0.013)
time to KO 0.00000∗∗∗ −0.00000∗∗∗
(0.000) (0.000)
bookies posted −0.001∗∗∗ 0.001∗∗∗
(0.0001) (0.0001)
obsnum 0.00004∗∗∗ −0.0001∗∗∗
(0.00000) (0.00000)
entropy −0.103∗∗∗ 0.180∗∗∗
(0.006) (0.011)
12bet −0.004 0.048∗∗∗
(0.006) (0.015)
188bet −0.002 0.028(0.008) (0.017)
5dimes 0.022∗∗∗ −0.005(0.007) (0.015)
888sport 0.013 0.068∗∗∗
(0.010) (0.023)
bestbet −0.011∗∗ 0.031∗∗∗
(0.005) (0.011)
bet2be 0.024∗∗∗ 0.005(0.009) (0.021)
bet365 −0.002 0.008(0.008) (0.019)
bet-at-home −0.0004 0.025∗
(0.007) (0.015)
betclic 0.008 0.002(0.006) (0.013)
betclic-it −0.003 0.048∗∗
(0.009) (0.019)
betcris 0.003 0.070∗∗
(0.013) (0.029)
betdaq 0.012∗ 0.004(0.006) (0.013)
betfred 0.009 0.008(0.007) (0.016)
betgun 0.006 0.091∗∗∗
(0.013) (0.029)
betonline −0.002 0.087∗∗∗
(0.012) (0.026)
betrally 0.003 −0.008(0.005) (0.011)
betredkings −0.007 0.032∗∗∗
(0.005) (0.011)
betsafe −0.014 0.094∗∗∗
(0.009) (0.020)
betsson −0.017∗ 0.103∗∗∗
(0.009) (0.020)
betvictor −0.002 0.016(0.006) (0.012)
betway 0.006 0.092∗∗∗
(0.009) (0.021)
bovada 0.015 −0.087(0.028) (0.058)
boylesports 0.002 −0.015(0.013) (0.027)
bwin 0.007 0.031∗
(0.008) (0.019)
bwin-es 0.005 0.043∗∗
(0.008) (0.019)
bwin-fr −0.047∗∗∗ 0.105∗∗∗
(0.017) (0.037)
bwin-it 0.029∗∗∗ −0.033(0.010) (0.023)
coral 0.052∗∗∗ −0.075∗
(0.019) (0.042)
dafabet −0.003 0.043∗∗∗
(0.007) (0.015)
doxxbet 0.015 0.068∗∗∗
(0.010) (0.023)
expekt 0.008 0.0003(0.006) (0.013)
fortuna-cz −0.019∗ 0.101∗∗∗
(0.011) (0.024)
fortuna-sk −0.024∗∗ 0.112∗∗∗
(0.011) (0.025)
fortunawin −0.022∗∗ 0.112∗∗∗
(0.011) (0.024)
france-pari −0.042∗∗ 0.130∗∗∗
(0.019) (0.040)
gobetgo −0.006 0.013(0.009) (0.019)
instant-action-sports 0.085∗∗ −0.008(0.034) (0.074)
intertops 0.029∗ 0.017(0.016) (0.036)
interwetten 0.017 0.059∗∗
(0.011) (0.025)
interwetten-es 0.014 0.071∗∗∗
(0.011) (0.025)
island-casino 0.019∗∗∗ 0.003(0.007) (0.015)
jetbull −0.011∗∗ 0.032∗∗∗
(0.005) (0.011)
leon-bets 0.012∗ 0.015(0.007) (0.015)
luxbet 0.005 0.016(0.007) (0.016)
marathonbet −0.006 0.0003(0.009) (0.019)
matchbook 0.051∗∗∗ −0.122∗∗∗
(0.011) (0.022)
mybet 0.022∗∗ 0.026(0.009) (0.020)
nordicbet 0.042∗∗∗ −0.032(0.011) (0.023)
noxwin −0.010∗ 0.030∗∗∗
(0.005) (0.011)
oddsring 0.015∗∗ 0.010(0.007) (0.014)
paddy-power 0.018∗∗ 0.012(0.009) (0.020)
paddy-power-it 0.018∗∗ 0.007(0.009) (0.020)
paf 0.011 0.048∗∗
(0.009) (0.019)
pinnacle-sports 0.032∗∗∗ −0.054∗∗∗
(0.007) (0.015)
sbobet −0.018∗∗∗ 0.076∗∗∗
(0.006) (0.014)
sportingbet 0.005 0.009(0.009) (0.020)
sportium 0.053 −0.228∗∗∗
(0.044) (0.083)
sportsbetting −0.012 0.103∗∗∗
(0.012) (0.026)
stan-james −0.009 0.027(0.011) (0.023)
superbahis 0.004 0.018(0.009) (0.020)
tipico 0.024∗∗∗ −0.014(0.009) (0.019)
tipico-it 0.026∗∗∗ −0.020(0.009) (0.019)
tipsport-cz −0.012∗ 0.056∗∗∗
(0.007) (0.016)
tipsport-sk −0.015∗∗ 0.061∗∗∗
(0.007) (0.016)
titanbet 0.019∗∗ −0.028∗
(0.007) (0.016)
tonybet 0.066∗∗∗ −0.088∗∗∗
(0.015) (0.032)
top-bet 0.320∗∗ −0.361(0.128) (0.245)
totepool 0.002 0.043∗∗∗
(0.007) (0.016)
unibet 0.022∗∗ 0.059∗∗∗
(0.010) (0.021)
unibet-fr −0.099∗∗∗ 0.196∗∗∗
(0.008) (0.018)
unibet-it −0.015 0.089∗∗∗
(0.016) (0.035)
william-hill −0.003 0.050∗∗
(0.011) (0.024)
william-hill-it −0.003 0.029(0.011) (0.025)
winner 0.024∗∗∗ −0.038∗∗
(0.007) (0.016)
youwin 0.002 0.037∗∗
(0.008) (0.017)
Observations 2,861,779R2 0.119Adjusted R2 0.119Residual Std. Error 0.460 (df = 2861619)F Statistic 2,436.754∗∗∗ (df = 159; 2861619)
Note: ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
FLB as kick-off approaches Go back1.
01.
52.
0
Beta coefficient at kick−off time and days beforehand (by bookmaker)
beta
coe
ffici
ents
in F
LB m
odel
top−
bet
spor
tium
mat
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Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
FLB overall Go back
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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Favourite−Longshot Bias in for Home/Draw/Away Contracts
Implied probability of event
Per
cent
age
of e
vent
s th
at o
ccur
● Home winDrawAway win
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Model and Bookmaker Forecasts from Reade and Akie(2013) Go back
Bookmaker Implied Probabilies Model probabilities (fitted values)
150 300 450 600 750 900 1050 1200 1350 1500 1650 1800
0.25
0.50
2011-20122010-20112009-20102008-2009
Bookmaker Implied Probabilies Model probabilities (fitted values)
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
References
J.J. Reade. Detecting corruption in football. In J. Goddard andP. Sloane, editors, Handbook on the Economics of ProfessionalFootball. Edward Elgar, 2013.
J.J. Reade and S. Akie. Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption inInternational Football. Working Papers 2013-005, The GeorgeWashington University, Department of Economics, ResearchProgram on Forecasting, May 2013. URLhttp://ideas.repec.org/p/gwc/wpaper/2013-005.html.
H.S. Shin. Optimal Betting Odds Against Insider Traders. TheEconomic Journal, 101(408):1179–1185, September 1991.
H.S. Shin. Prices of State Contingent Claims with Insider Traders,and the Favourite-Longshot Bias. The Economic Journal, 102(411):426–435, March 1992.
H.S. Shin. Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Marketfor State-Contingent Claims. The Economic Journal, 103(420):1141–1153, September 1993.
Information, Forecasting and Corruption
Appendix
Tara M. Sinclair, Fred Joutz, and H.O. Stekler. Can the Fedpredict the state of the economy? Economics Letters, 108(1):28–32, July 2010. URL http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/
ecolet/v108y2010i1p28-32.html.