Informal Thematic Debate of the United Nations General Assembly New York, NY

31 July 2007

Climate Change as a Global ChallengePresented byKenrick R. LeslieThe Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre

Panel 1Thematic Debate on Climate Change: the Science, the Impact and Adaptation Imperatives Round 1 PROJECTED AND OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN THE CARIBBEAN

Climate trend in the Caribbean regionThe climate in the Caribbean region has been changing in a manner very consistent with the observed variations at global and northern hemisphere levels.

Climate Change-related Impacts in the CaribbeanOver the last decade the Caribbean has been experiencing:

Lower diurnal temperature variation and much warmer nights.

More frequent incidence of coral bleaching.

Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming more intense in a shorter period of time.

More frequent outbreaks of pest infestation.

More extreme drought and flood events.

More incidence of extreme temperature-related stress events to humans, animals and plants.

Temperature and Rainfall Trends in the Caribbean

Temperature trendTemperature records have shown an increase in the last century, with the 1990s being the warmest decade since the beginning of the 20th century. In the region, 1998 also appears as the warmest year on record

Rainfall trendRecords have shown changing patterns

Floods in some areas and droughts in other areasVariations of land surface temperature for the Caribbean1973 to 2000 1973 2000

Increasing episodes of coral bleaching in the Caribbean since the 1980s Branching coralBrain coral

Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming more intense in a shorter period of timeIvan developed near 8oN latitude Wilma developed from a tropical depression to the most intense category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hrsGrenadaCozumel

The Impact of more intense hurricanes & SLR

Coastal Impact of Storm Surge and Wave Action under a Sea Level Rise Scenario

MSL 1997

MSL 1997

1997

2020

Response Strategies: Retreat Accommodation Protection

Wave Action

Storm Surge

Wave Action

Storm Surge

MSL 2020

OUTBREAKS OF PEST INFESTATIONPine bark beetle infestation in the Mountain Pine Ridge of Belize combined with reduced rainfall resulted in increased incidence of forest fires, soil degradation and higher than normal sediment loading in the rivers and deposits on coral reef.

Flooding in low coastal areas(One of many flood events Georgetown, Guyana)

For a 2oC rise in temperature (Implications for the Caribbean)Serious impact onMarine ecosystemAgricultureForest and terrestrial ecosystemTourism and other socio-economic sectorsHealth

Loss of Fish HabitatYellow tuna

Dolphin fishCoryphaena hippurus

2oC Impact on AgriculturePreliminary studies on the impact on corn, beans and rice for future climate scenarios for 2oC warmer and for a +/- 20% change in precipitation is indicated below:

Crop

Scenario Name

Season Length (days)

Temperature Change (oC)

% Change in precipitation

Yield (kg/ha)

% change in Yield

Dry beans C3

Baseline Carib A

87

85

85

0

+2

+2

0

+20-20

1353.6

1163.7

1092.6

-14%

-19%

Rice

C3

Baseline Carib A

124

113

113

0

+2

+2

0

+20

-20

3355.5

3014.4

2887.5

-10%

-14%

Maize

C4

Baseline Carib A

104

97

97

0

+2

+2

0

+20

-20

4510.6

3736.6

3759.4

-22%

-17%

The best way to predict the future...is to create it ...

THANK YOUFor further information please contact us at:

THE CARIBBEAN COMMUNITYCLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE2nd Floor, Lawrence Nicholas Bldg.P.O. Box 563Bliss Parade,Belmopan City, BelizeTel: +501-822-1094/1104Fax: +501-822-1365Website: www.caribbeanclimate.bz