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    Influenza

    Seasonal and Pandemic

    EPID 8500

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    Lessons Learned formPast Pandemics

    First outbreaks March 1918 in Europe, USA Highly contagious, but not deadly

    Virus traveled between Europe/USA on troopships

    Land, sea travel to Africa, Asia

    Warning signal was missed

    August, 1918 simultaneous explosiveoutbreaks in in France, Sierra Leone, USA 10-fold increase in death rate

    Highest death rate ages 15-35 years Cytokine Storm?

    Deaths from primary viral pneumonia, secondarybacterial pneumonia

    Deaths within 48 hours of illness

    Coincident severe disease in pigs

    20-40 million killed in less than 1 year World War I 8.3 million military deaths over 4

    years

    25-35% of the world infected

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    Pandemics are unpredictable

    Mortality, severity of illness, pattern of spread A sudden, sharp increase in the need for medical care

    will always occur

    Capacity to cause severe disease in nontraditionalgroups is a major determinant of pandemic impact

    Epidemiology reveals waves of infection Ages/areas not initially infected likely vulnerable in future

    waves

    Subsequent waves may be more severe 1918- virus mutated into more virulent form

    1957 schoolchildren spread initial wave, elderly died insecond wave

    Public health interventions delay, but do not stoppandemic spread Quarantine, travel restriction show little effect

    Does not change population susceptibility

    Delay spread in Australia

    later milder strain causesinfection there

    Temporary banning of public gatherings, closing schoolspotentially effective in case of severe disease and highmortality

    Delaying spread is desirable Fewer people ill at one time improve capacity to cope with

    sharp increase in need for medical care

    Lessons Learned formPast Pandemics

    http://www.history.navy.mil/photos/images/h41000/h41730.jpg
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    Timeline of EmergenceInfluenza A Viruses in Humans

    1918 1957 1968 1977 1997

    1998/9

    2003

    H1

    H1

    H3

    H2

    H7

    H5H5

    H9

    Spanish

    Influenza

    H1N1

    Asian

    Influenza

    H2N2

    Russian

    Influenza

    Avian

    Influenza

    Hong

    Kong

    Influenza

    H3N2

    2009

    H1

    Reassorted Influenza virus

    (Swine Flu)

    1976 Swine Flu

    Outbreak, Ft. Dix

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    Swine Influenza A(H1N1)Mexico Epidemic Curve Confirmed, by Day

    4

    5961

    75

    128127

    148

    126

    112

    90

    168

    22 4

    217

    214

    20 1

    176

    199

    22 1

    27 0

    29 0

    40 0

    38 5

    30 9

    26 2

    15

    310

    76

    3122

    14 1014

    4138

    4276500 234210 3322111211017

    38

    122

    186

    77

    158

    92

    6965

    85

    7176

    595052

    4136

    3137

    2933

    2025

    816

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    Day

    No.ofConfirmedCases

    Source: Secretaria de Salud, Mexico

    Total Number of Confirmed Cases = 6,241*

    As of June 09, 2009

    *NOTE: 54 confirmed cases not included

    Epidemiological Alert

    School Closure

    Suspension of Non-essential Activities

    School Open

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    Influenza Epidemic in the US

    2008 - 2009

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    Epidemic in Georgia

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    All Respiratory InfectionsUniversity Health Center, UGA

    2005 - 2009

    Feb 2005Feb 2006

    Feb 2007

    Feb 2008

    Aug 2009

    Aug 2007

    Aug 2006Aug 2005Aug 2008

    R Forehand, MD

    Medical Director UHC

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    0

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    30

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    50

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    70

    80

    6/17/09 6/24/09 7/1/09 7/8/09 7/15/09 7/22/09 7/29/09 8/5/09 8/12/09 8/19/09 8/26/09 9/2/09 9/9/09 9/16/0

    Diagnosis=Influenzaor

    ILI

    Influenza-like IllnessUGA University Health Center

    through Sep 16, 2009

    First H1N1 rRT-PCR positive patient

    occurred on June 17,2009

    R Forehand, MD

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    Influenza Transmission

    Transmitted through respiratory route

    Cough, sneezing, talking

    Transmitted through direct and indirect contact with

    respiratory secretions Caring for patient

    Inanimate objects

    Infectious for up to 24 hours before ill

    30% of cases asymptomatic

    Incubation period 1 4 days

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    Reproductive Rate (R0)

    Estimated R0:

    1918 Influenza R0 = 1.8 - 4

    1957 Influenza R0 = 1.9 - 2.1

    1968 Influenza R0 = 1.89

    How transmissible is this virus likely to be?

    Epidemic : R0 >1

    Epidemic H1N1: R0 = 1.4 at UGA

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    UGA H1N1 Projected Epidemic

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    Influenza Virus - Morphology

    Virus are usually roughly spherical Viral genome is composed of eight segments of

    single-stranded RNA

    Each of which has to be present for successful

    replication

    Segmented genome is enclosed within an outer

    lipoprotein envelop

    Antigenic protein called matrix protein (MP 1)

    which lines the inside of the envelope and is

    chemically bound to the RNA

    The envelop contains two highly important glycoproteins (protruding spikes) which

    form a characteristic halo of projections

    Neuraminidase (NA) of which there are 9 major antigenic types

    Haemagglutinin (HA) of which there are 15 major antigenic types

    http://www.chemsoc.org/exemplarchem/entries/2001/sanderson/immunology.htm

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    Overview of Proteins HA, mediates binding to cellular receptors (sialic acid moieties)

    NA, cleaves sialic acid, having a critical role in progeny virus release from host cells

    M2, is an ion channel involved in viral entry and exit

    The virus encodes two proteins excluded from virions: NS1 and PB1-F2.

    NS1, blocks innate antiviral responses and contributes to viral gene expression

    PB1-F2, functions remain to be firmly established; it appears to have an important

    role in pathogenicity

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    Haemagglutinin trimeric protein

    Copyright Linda M Stannard, 1995.

    The envelop contains two types of protruding spikes,which form a characteristic halo of projections

    i. Neuraminidase (NA) of which there are 9 major

    antigenic types

    ii. Haemagglutinin (HA) of which there are 13

    major antigenic types

    Haemagglutinin functions during attachment of the

    virus particle to the membrane of epithelial cells in the

    upper respiratory tract

    Lipoprotein bilayer envelope makes the virus rather

    unstable susceptible to heat, drying, detergents and

    solvents

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    Life cycle of influenza virus - replication

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    Antigenic Drift antigenic evolution natural mutations

    occur that result in the accumulation ofamino acid substitutions in HA

    RNA polymerase error-prone, no

    proofreading function

    the immune response to HA is critical in

    virus neutralization

    Small changes in HA can lead to loss ofimmune recognition

    HA (side view) HA (top view)

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    Influenza Virus Natural host

    Three type of influenza viruses A,B and C

    only types A and B cause

    widespread outbreaks

    Infuenza A viruses are classified

    into subtypes based on antigenic

    differences between their two

    surface glycoproteins

    Heamagglutinin (H1 H15)

    Neuraminidase (N1 N9)

    Only H1-3,and N1,N2 have

    established stable lineages in human

    populations since 1918

    Only 1 subtype of NA and 1 of HA

    are identified for influenza B viruses

    Nicholson et al. 2003. The Lancet; Vol. 362

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    Antigenic Shift

    Antigenic shift, occurs when an entirely

    new virus is introduced into the human

    population from the animal reservoir.

    Reassortment of viral genes occurs when

    there are multiple viruses that infect the

    same cell.

    Segments from each of the viruses infecting

    the same cell can be mixed and matched and

    repackaged into new viruses

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    Swine: The Viral Mixing Pot

    S i l f I fl Vi

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    Source: Bean B, et al. JID 1982;146:47-51

    Survival of Influenza VirusSurfaces and Affect of Humidity & Temperature*

    Hard non-porous surfaces 24-48 hours Plastic, stainless steel

    Recoverable for > 24 hours

    Transferable to hands up to 24 hours

    Cloth, paper & tissue

    Recoverable for 8-12 hours

    Transferable to hands 15 minutes

    Viable on hands

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    Influenza Diagnosis Viral Culture

    Respiratory secretions collected within 3 days of illness

    Cultured in embryonated eggs or tissue culture

    Viral growth occurs in 2 3 days

    Viral typing

    Antigen Detection Methods Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) or immunofluorescence

    Available in clinical setting within hours

    Sensitivity and specificity low

    Antibody Detection Methods 4-fold increase in antibodies in serum

    ELISA, complement fixation tests, hemagglutination

    inhibition

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    Immunity to Swine Flu-H1N1

    The immune response comprised of innateand adaptive immunity.

    Innate immune system plays an essentialrole in limiting viral replication in the firstdays of infection.

    Adaptive immunity includes the inductionof B and T cell responses.

    Three IAV proteins elicit robust antibodyresponses during infection: NP, NA and HA.

    M2 is less immunogenic, but is a promisingtarget for cross-protective vaccination,since its short extracellular target domain ishighly conserved

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    Neutralizing Antibody Titers Against the 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Virus among

    Serum Donors, According to Birth Decade (18802000)

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    Hayden, F. G. N Engl J Med 2006;354:785-788

    M2 Blockers (Adamantanes)

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    Hayden, F. G. N Engl J Med 2006;354:785-788

    M2 Blockers

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    Moscona, A. N Engl J Med 2005;353:1363-1373

    Neuraminidase Inhibitors

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    Influenza Reporting

    WHO and National Respiratory and Enteric VirusSurveillance System

    125 collaborating laboratories

    US and international

    122 Cities Mortality Reporting system Count deaths from pneumonia

    State and Territorial Epidemiologist

    Sporadic, Regional, Widespread

    US Sentinel Physicians Surveillance Network 260 physicians throughout the country voluntarily

    report cases to CDC

    Global Distribution of Reported Cumulative Laboratory Confirmed Cases of

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    Global Distribution of Reported Cumulative Laboratory Confirmed Cases of

    Swine Influenza A(H1N1) by Countries, June 11, 2009 (14:00 GMT)

    Source: WHO

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    Influenza Vaccines

    Inactivated influenza A vaccine Contains 4 different strains

    H1N1 (2009), H1N1 (1977), H3N2, Influenza B

    Virus is killed Cannot transmit, mutate, or cause influenza in vaccinee

    Injected, intramuscular

    Single dose in adults, 2 does to children(immunologically nave)

    Given annually

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    Influenza Vaccines

    Live-attenuated vaccines Contains 4 strains of influenza virus

    H1N1, H3N2, Influenza B

    Cold adapted live influenza viruses Infect humans

    Produce infection (temperature regulated) but not

    disease (attenuated)

    Theoretical concerns about mutation to virulent virus

    Nasal inhalation

    Given annually

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    Vaccine Efficacy

    Vaccine Efficacy Comments

    Inactivated 70 90% Laboratory

    confirmed illness

    Cold-adapted Live 85 92% Influenza

    Vaccine Efficacy

    - Underlying population studied

    - Match between vaccine and circulating virus

    - Type of endpoint used, e.g., laboratory-

    confirmed disease, influenza-like illness,

    hospitalization, death

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    Influenza Vaccine

    Vaccine Production

    Virus grown on chorioallantoic membranes of

    embryonated eggs

    Allantoic fluids are ultracentrifuged to collect viralparticles

    Inactivated by formaldehyde and processed to

    ensure stability and sterility Titre antigen levels and assess antigenicity

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    Influenza Vaccine

    Vaccine Production

    In January each year, WHO reviews the circulating

    strains of influenza in Northern and Southern

    hemispheres

    Data collected through global surveillancenetwork

    The most likely epidemic strain(s) are selected

    Seed lots of virus are distributed to manufacturers Manufacturers produce vaccine in eggs and test,

    license, package, and distribute by October

    250 million doses produced each year

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    Influenza Vaccine

    Vaccine Strategy

    Old approach to vaccinate children and adults,

    those at greatest risk for severe or disease

    complications New approach to vaccinate those who are likely to

    transmit infection including healthy children and

    adults.

    See current CDC Website

    http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/rr/rr5908.pdf

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    Vaccine Efficacy

    A single 15g dose of

    unadjuvanted 2009 H1N1

    vaccineresulted in titers

    of 1:40 or more on

    hemagglutination-

    inhibitionassay in 96.7%

    of adult subjects

    39

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    Vaccine Efficacy

    Reverse cumulative-

    distribution curves of

    antibody titers in serum

    samples obtained on day

    21 after first dosing of 7.5

    g of MF59-adjuvanted

    vaccine

    40

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    Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics

    Three previous influenza pandemics

    A/H1N1 from 1918 -1919, A/H2N2 from

    1957 -1963, and A/H3N2 from 1968 1970

    Past pandemics were characterized by:

    1) shift in the virus subtype

    2) shift of the highest death rates in elderly

    to younger populations

    3) successive pandemic waves

    4) higher transmissibility than that of

    seasonal influenza

    5)differences in impact in differentgeographic regions

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    Prevention: Exposure/Infection

    Social Interventions:

    Restrictions on travel A 90%, 99%, or 99.9% reduction in

    imported infections might delay the peakof a pandemic by 1.5, 3, or 6 weeksrespectively

    Border Restrictions unlikely to delay

    spread of virus more then 2-3 weeksunless more than 99% effective(Ferguson, N. et al. 2006. Nature.)

    School or workplace closures

    School closure during the peak of apandemic can reduce peak attack rates

    by up to 40%, but has little impact onoverall attack rates

    (Ferguson, N. et al. 2006. Nature.)

    Restrictions of Mass Public Gatherings

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    Unconventional and Untested

    Approach to Influenza Protection