How important is the media in voting behaviour?

Influence of the mediaNewspapers, especially tabloids, attempt to influence the result of elections.

But there are other forms of media; television and new media such as websites, blogs and social media.

It is important to;

•Discriminate between the different forms of media•Consider the ways the various media try to influence •Assess the parties competence in using the media, •Evaluate the impact of the media

Influence on Voters: The Leaders’ Debate

The first ever UK leaders’ debates took place this year, with three debates on ITV, Sky and BBC. Around 10 million people watched the first debate on ITV.

Nick Clegg performed very well and the rise in support for the Lib Dems in the polls led many to believe the leaders’ debates would have a decisive influence. But, the Lib Dems’ vote increased by a mere 1%.

Perhaps this is because, unlike in the USA, we do not vote directly for our political leader. It may also have been a reflection on the FPTP voting system, where a vote for the Lib Dems was, all too often, in reality a “wasted vote”.

Influence of Web 2.0

Barack Obama’s success in the USA was, in part, attributable to his skilful use of the new media.

The political parties took social networking and Web 2.0 media very seriously in 2010.

All the parties’ websites had interactive features. They also used social network sites such as Youtube, Twitter and Facebook. This is all very clever, if, and only if, they are used well….

Gordon Brown’s Youtube trauma Webcameron

But, the Old Media still rules in the UK

But, In 2010 the Old Media to dominated.

The first tv debate was watched by 9.4 million people. The Sun is read by 8 million people every day. By contrast, 79% of Britons could not re-call any online electioneering, not even an email.

When will the first New Media election be?

Social media and the election

2010 Who Supported WhoDaily Newspaper Party supported

Guardian Lib Dem

Independent Lib Dem or Labour

Telegraph Con

Times Con

Herald None

Scotsman None

Financial Times Con

Mirror Labour

Record Labour

Sun Con

Star None

Express Con

Mail Con

The biggest selling newspaper in the UK is The Sun.

Most of the biggest selling UK tabloids backed the Conservatives.

Labour, and Gordon Brown in particular, was attacked and ridiculed. Newspapers can be as biased as they want!

1997, 2001 and 2005 News International

In 1997, The Murdoch press turned on former PM John Major because he wasn't Margaret Thatcher.

It supported Tony Blair because he did a good job of pretending he was.

News International is run by Rupert Murdoch. News International owns media all over the world. In the UK it owns BSkyB, The Sun, News of the World, The Times and the Sunday Times.

2010 News International

The Sun did its best to win it for the Conservatives. The Sun traditionally backs the winner, but then again, it usually waits to see who is most likely to win before it decides who to back.

Labour supporting newspapers

The Mirror did its best to win it for Labour, even urging tactical voting for the Lib Dems in marginal seats.

This time around, only the Daily Mirror, The Observer and the Daily Record backed Labour.

The Guardian switched its support from Labour to Lib Dem.

In Scotland in 2007 the tabloid press didn’t swing the election

In the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, the tabloid press attacked the SNP.

But the SNP won the election and also became the largest party in Scottish local government.

But maybe in 2010 they did…Between 2005 and the time The Sun formally endorsed David Cameron in September 2009, Sun readers had already swung to the Conservatives by 12.5%. In other words, they’d decided to vote Tory before Rupert Murdoch told them to.

But then during the election itself, between the 6th of April when the Prime Minister called the election and election day itself, five Sun readers in a hundred swung back to the Tories.

Given the closeness of the 2010 General Election result, perhaps, this time, it was The Sun wot won it?

Do Governments lose elections?Rather than oppositions win them?

Black Wednesday 1992“Bottler Brown” 2007

Sometimes the voters just lose confidence in a governing party. Sometimes there is a defining moment when a party loses the trust of the voters and never wins it back. While the Conservatives lost the massive lead it had built up, Labour Ministers have conceded that the Election was “lost” as far back as October 2007.

The party machine In these days of celebrity, the image of the leader takes on more and more importance.

While a party’s campaign will not, on its own, win an election, a badly organised campaign can certainly lose one.

Parties require a good “air” attack via the media, but also a good “ground war”; phone calls, emails, leaflets and enthusiastic campaigners in communities. Labour was hammered by The Sun and put on the defensive.

But, it didn’t help itself by scoring spectacular “own goals”.

Gordon Brown bigot gaffe