inflation targeting in emerging market economies
TRANSCRIPT
INFLATION TARGETING AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
A growing number of countries are making a specific inflation rate the primary goal of monetary policy, with success
Source:TheWorldBank,2015
By Sarthak Luthra
Table of Contents
• WhatisInfla+onTarge+ng(IT)?• HistoryofIT• Infla+onandGrowth• IMFClassifica+on• NaturalClassifica+on• ExchangeRateArrangements• AsianPerspec+ve• Infla+on Targeters: Korea, Thailand, Philippines, andIndonesia
• DeJureversusDeFacto• Findings• KeyTakeaways
“A monetary policy opera0ng strategy with four elements; an ins&tu&onalizedcommitment to price stability as the primary goal of monetary policy,mechanisms rendering the central bank accountable for a8aining its monetarypolicy goals, the public announcement of targets for infla0on, and a policy ofcommunica&ngtothepublicandthemarketsthera&onaleforthedecisiontakenbythecentralbank”
Eichengreen,2001
“This involves the public announcement of medium-term numerical targets forinfla&on with an ins&tu&onal commitment by the monetary authority to achievethese targets. Addi0onal key features include increased communica&on with thepublic and themarkets about the plans and objec&ves ofmonetary policymakersandincreasedaccountabilityofthecentralbankforaDainingitsinfla0onobjec0ves.Monetarypolicydecisionsareguidedbythedevia0onofforecastsoffutureinfla0onfromtheannouncedtarget,withtheinfla0onforecastac0ng(implicitlyorexplicitly)astheintermediatetargetofmonetarypolicy”
IMF,2015
What is Inflation Targeting (IT)?
Oneapproach:Placeexchangerateintointerestraterule
it=gππt+gyyt+ge0et+ge1et-1+ρit-1 where
itisthenominalinterestrate,πtistheinfla+onrate(smoothedoverfourquarters),ytisthedevia+onofrealGDPfrompoten+alGDP,etistheexchangerate(highereisanapprecia+on).
Exchange rate in Policy Rule in IT
Infla&ontarge&ngandmonetarypolicyrules:ExperienceandResearch,JohnB.Taylor,StanfordUniversity,2000
What is Inflation Targeting (IT)?
• Maintain price stability by focusing on devia+ons in published infla+onforecastsfromanannouncedinfla+ontarget(ECB,2004)
• Controlthegeneralriseinthepricelevel- Inthisframework,acentralbankes+matesandmakespublicaprojected,or “target,” infla+on rateand thena_empts to steer actual infla+on toward that target, using such tools asinterestratechanges
*Becauseinterestratesandinfla+onratestendtomoveinoppositedirec+ons,thelikelyac+onsacentralbankwilltaketoraiseorlowerinterestratesbecomemoretransparentunderaninfla+ontarge+ngpolicy
• Strengthen the Central Bank (CB)’s accountability for a_aining thoseobjec+ves
“Infla+on targe+ng is a framework for monetary policy characterized by the publicannouncementofofficialquan+ta+vetargetsfortheinfla@onrate[…]stableinfla@onismonetarypolicy’sprimarylong-rungoal.”(Bernankeetal.,1999)
Infla@ontarge@ngisto:
What is Inflation Targeting (IT)?
KeyTakeaways:1)Clearmandateformonetarypolicytoaimforlowinfla@on2)CBindependence–atleastintermsofinstrument3)CBaccountabilityforachievingmandate
Alterna@vedefini@onsofIT
Whyinfla@ontarge@ng:• Highinfla+ondistortsdecisionsoninvestment,
saving:mayleadtoslowereconomicgrowth;• Greaterins+tu+onalindependencetocentral
bankswithmonetarypolicycommitment;
• Preventdefla@onMonetarypolicyrestric0ve(expansionary)ifactualinfla0onissystema0callyabove(below)theinfla0ontarget.• Nominalanchortotheeconomy.Ex.Currencypeg
Concernwiththenominalanchor:Country’smonetarypolicyàDEPENDANTonthecountrytowhichitpeggedàLimi+ngthecentralbank’sabilitytorespondtoshocks(termsoftradeorchangesinrealinterestrateàManycountriesbegantoadoptflexibleexchangerates(NewAnchor)
History of IT – Why has it become popular?
Infla@ontarge@nghasbeenadoptedintheearly1990sbyindustrialcountrieslikeNewZealand,Canada,theUnitedKingdomandSweden,Mexico,andCzechrepublic
Inflation and Growth
Keyeconomicmacroeconomicvariablessuchasinfla+onandoutputperformedbeSerincountriesthatadoptedinfla@ontarge@ngcomparedwiththosethatdidnot
• Measureofinfla&ontouse?Consumerpriceindex(CPI)orGDPdeflator• Whethermonetarypolicyshouldtargetallmovementsininfla@on• Thetargetlevelofinfla+on?• Whethertoadoptaninfla&ontargetpointortargetranges?• Choiceofpolicyhorizon—speedinessindeclineofthetargetpath.
Issues in IT
Benefits:• Lowinfla+onvola+lity(Svensson,1997);• Cushioningofinfla+onaryshocks(Mishkin,2004);• Anchoringofinfla+onexpecta+ons(Kohn,2007,Swanson,2006,Levinetal.,2004).
CostsIfinfla+ontarge+ngwereimplementedasaverystrictpolicyrulethenitcouldhavesomeseriouscosts(Bernankeetal.,2003):• Restrictedabilityofthecentralbanktorespondtofinancialcrises;• Pooroutcomesinemployment,exchangerateandothermacroeconomicvariables;• Poten+alinstabilityintheeventoflargesupply-sideshocks;• Lackofsupportfromthepublic.
• Capital inflowsàcurrencyboardmonetaryauthoritybuysforexatfixedexchangerate,expandingmonetarybase.Theinterestrateare lowered and capital inflows arediscouraged.
• Case of automa+c adjustment mechanism.The interest rate à Capital inflows andouqlows are balanced. If capitalmobility ishigh, then the credible currency boardwillequate the domes+c interest ratewith theoneintheforeigncountrytowhichthepegismaintained(HongKong+USdollar).
• Underthecurrencyboard,thereisnoroomforindependentmonetarypolicy.
FixedExchangerateregime(undercurrencyboard)
FlexibleExchangerateregime
The exchange rate is ler to the marketforce , wh i le monetary po l i cy i sconcentrated on the domes+c pricestability. The central bank mandate is tokeep the domes+c price stability, andinterven+on into the foreign exchangemarketiskeptminimal,ifatall.*Three major economies—the US, theEuroland,andJapan—haveadoptedfreefloa@ng
Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes
IMF Classification
• DependentonFixed(sor/hard)andmanaged• 1950:53%ofallarrangementshadtwoormore
exchanges• Pegs reigned supremacy in early 1970s, with
90%ofalltheexchangeratearrangements• De jure – 8 classifica+ons and De Facto – 3
classifica+ons(Hard,Sor,andFloa+ng)
UnifiedExchangeRate Dual,Mul+ple,Parallel
• Hardpeg:Broadlyconsistent13.1%• SoTpeg:42.9%
Conven&onalpeg:23.6%StabilizedArrangement:9.9%
• Floa0ng:34%Managedfloa&ng:18.3%Freefloa&ng:15.7%
• Residual:9.9%
The fine classification codes are:
1 No separate legal tender 2 Pre announced peg or currency board arrangement 3 Pre announced horizontal band that is narrower than or equal to +/-2% 4 De facto peg 5 Pre announced crawling peg 6 Pre announced crawling band that is narrower than or equal to +/-2% 7 De factor crawling peg 8 De facto crawling band that is narrower than or equal to +/-2% 9 Pre announced crawling band that is wider than or equal to +/-2%
10 De facto crawling band that is narrower than or equal to +/-5% 11 Moving band that is narrower than or equal to +/-2% (i.e., allows for both appreciation and depreciation over time) 12 Managed floating 13 Freely floating 14 Freely falling 15 Dual market in which parallel market data is missing.
The course classification codes are:
1 No separate legal tender 1 Pre announced peg or currency board arrangement 1 Pre announced horizontal band that is narrower than or equal to +/-2% 1 De facto peg 2 Pre announced crawling peg 2 Pre announced crawling band that is narrower than or equal to +/-2% 2 De factor crawling peg 2 De facto crawling band that is narrower than or equal to +/-2% 3 Pre announced crawling band that is wider than or equal to +/-2% 3 De facto crawling band that is narrower than or equal to +/-5% 3 Moving band that is narrower than or equal to +/-2% (i.e., allows for both appreciation and depreciation over time) 3 Managed floating 4 Freely floating 5 Freely falling 6 Dual market in which parallel market data is missing.
Taxonomy of Exchange Rate Arrangements
Natural Classification- Carmen Reinhart Database
• BasedonMarketDeterminedrates• Be_erbarometersofunderlyingmonetarypolicy• Marketdeterminedexchangeratesconsistentlyan+cipatesdevalua+onofofficial
rate(posi+vecoefficient)• Be_er correla+on of market exchange rate with infla@on (be_er pulse of
monetarypolicy)• Presence of Dual (mul+ple) rates and parallel markets – in 1950 45% of the
countrieshaddualormul@pleexchangerates• InOfficialClassifica+onasmanagedfloa+ng–53%haddefactopegs,crawls,or
narrowbandsinnaturalclassifica@on• PopularregimesinEmergingAsiaandWesternHemisphere–Crawlingpeg(more
than36%and42%oftheobserva+ons),1990-2001• NewCategory–Freelyfalling(13%oftheobserva+onwithfreelyfallingcategory
in1990),whichis3+mesfreelyfloa+ngcategory(Whereinthe12monthinfla+onrateisabove40%)ExChilein1956
Natural versus IMF Classifications
• InNaturalClassifica+onalmost40%oftheregimesin1950werepegs• Between1974–1990theofficialclassifica+onhasroughly60%ofallregimesaspegs,
naturalclassifica+onhasonlyhalfasmanyàSomeofnaturalpegsarenotofficialpegs(vice-versa)
• 1993-“freelyfalling”con+nuestobeasignificantcategory,accoun+ngfor15percentofallregimeàdecliningtrendfrom2001-2010
• In2010,45%(Peg),22%(Defactoandpreannouncedcrawlingpegs),19%(Managedfloa+ng),3%(Freelyfloa+ng).0%(Freelyfalling),2%(Dualandparallelmarkets)
OverlapbetweenIMFandNaturalclassifica+on
IMFlabelinonewayandNaturalClas.labelitdifferently
Naturalclassifica+onlabelinonewayandIMFlabelindifferently
Natural versus IMF Classifications
• Naturalclassifica+onelevateslimitedflexibilityasanimportantregime(unlikeofficialarrangement)
• Naturalclassifica+on(lessthan10%between1991-2001)haslessfreelyfloa+ngregimesvis-à-visofficialclassifica+on(morethan30%)àFearofFloa+ng(CalvoandReinhart,2002)
IMF Classification Probability in Natural Classification Natural Classification
Peg 44% Flexible arrangment
Float 31% Peg / limited flexibility
Managed float 53% Peg / limited flexibility
• Correla+onbetweenNaturalandOfficialClassifica+on:0.42• GreateroverlapforEuropeancountries• Leastoverlapindevelopingcountries
Transi@on-%ofcountrieswithdifferentexchangerateregimes(1941–2010)
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
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1966
1968
1970
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2002
2004
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2008
2010
ONE
TWO
THREE
FOUR
FIVE
SIX
WORLDWIDE EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
IMFDataonExchangeRateArrangements,CourseClassifica&on,1940-2010
• Recentdevelopment-Depolici@seexchangeratemovementssincesoapegsaresuscep@bletospecula@veaSacksàIncreasedpressurefordevelopingcountriestoadoptcornersolu+onstoexchangeratesarrangements;
• Theexchangerateisanimportantvariableforpolicydecisions;• Priorto1990,Asianeconomiesmaintainedfixedexchangerateàexchangerate
stabilityisessen+alforpromo+ngtradeandinvestment;• Fixedexchangerateregimebecamedifficulttomaintainwhenthecapitalaccounts
wereliberalized;• Someemergingmarketeconomies,includingMexicoandThailand,firstreceived
largecapitalinflowsfollowedbylargeouqlows;• Whenthecentralbank,facedwithmassiveouqlows,triedtomaintainthefixed
exchangerateandexhaustedtheforeignexchangeàCURRENCYCRISIS• Fearofapprecia+on–duetoasymmetricexchangerateinterven+on—i.e.,a
willingnesstoallowdeprecia+onsbutreluctancetoallowapprecia+ons Impossibilityofhavingcapitalmobility,thefixedexchangerate,andindependentmonetarypolicy,isoaencalled“impossibletrinity
Asian Economies – A Perspective
• Asiancrisis,the“two-cornersolu+on”wasadvocatedbytheIMFandtheUnitedStates.Itsaysthatthestableexchangerateregimeiseitherthehardpeg(currencyboardordollariza+on)orfreefloat.
• Intermediateregimesàmanagedfloat/fixedexchangerateregimewithoutacurrencyboardarrangement,wereregardedasinherentlyunstable.Fischer(2001)
• Since1998,theIMFhasrecommendedtoemergingmarketeconomiesinaddi+ontoadvancedcountriesacombina+onoffreefloatandinfla@ontarge@nginordertolessentheprobabilityofacurrencycrisiswithstabilityofdomes+cprices.
• Thefreefloatregime,seemedtohavegainedmorepopularity,andsohasinfla+ontarge+ng.InEastAsia,Korea,Thailand,thePhilippines,andIndonesiaadoptedinfla+ontarge+ngsince1998
• ManyEMcountriesadoptedafully-fledgedITregimeormanyelementsofitinthelate1990sasatransi+onarrangement,mostlyinresponsetodifficul+esinkeepingpeggedcurrenciesstableinthewakeoftheEastAsiancrisis.During2003–2011,themovefromfixedexchangeratearrangementstoinfla+ontarge+ngormixedpolicyregimescon+nuedamongEMcountries
Post Asian Crisis
Theexchangerateregimevariesfromthehardpegtofreefloat.Themonetarypolicyframeworkrangesfromno-independencetototalindependence.
Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia
InEastAsia,Korea,Thailand,thePhilippines,andIndonesiaadoptedinfla@ontarge@ngsince1998
Inflation Targeting Economies – East Asia
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Indonesia
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Thailand
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Philippines Korea
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1600.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Inflation and Exchange Rate Movements
Infla@on(BlueandLeaAxis)Exchangerate(RedandRightAxis)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
INDONESIA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
KOREA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
PHILIPPINES
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
THAILAND
Inflation Targeting Countries
Exchangerateregimes
Un+l1998àeasytoobtaindejureexchangerateclassifica+onsàdatawascompiledfromna+onalsourcesbytheIMFàbasedonself-repor+ngofna+onalpoliciesbyvariousgovernmentsConcern:Divergencesbetweendefactoanddejurepolicies—IMF’sexchangerateclassifica+onmethodologyshiredtocompilingunofficialpoliciesofcountriesasdeterminedbytheFund.• IMFreplaceditscompila+onofdejureexchangerateregimeswiththebehavioral
classifica+onofexchangerates.• NewIMFcodingisbasedonvarioussources,includinginforma+onfromIMFstaff,
pressreports,otherrelevantpapers,aswellasthebehaviorofbilateralnominalexchangeratesandreserves.
De Jure versus De Facto Classification
Country De Jure Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia'
Bangladesh The exchange rates set by the dealer banks themselves, based on Demand and-supply interaction. Bangladesh Bank is not present in the market on a day-to-day basis and undertakes purchase/sale transactions with dealer banks (if need be)
PRC 2005 - managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand (link to basket of currencies). The new exchange rate system has operated stably The exchange rate of the RMB against US dollar has been moving both upward and downward with greater flexibility
Hong Kong, SAR
1983 - Hong Kong dollar linked to US dollar Maintained under strict and robust Currency Board system (requiring) both the stock and the flow of the Monetary Base to be fully backed by foreign reserves
India Monitoring and management of exchange rates with flexibility, without a fixed target or a pre-announced target or a band
Indonesia
2005- Bank Indonesia launched new monetary policy known as the Inflation targeting framework: (1) use of the BI rate as a reference rate in monetary control in replacement of the base money operational target (2) forward looking monetary policymaking process (3) more transparent communications strategy (4) strengthening of policy coordination with the Government The rupiah exchange rate is determined wholly by market supply and demand
Korea
Inflation targeting - Central bank announces an explicit inflation target and achieves its target directly. Inflation targeting places great emphasis on inducing inflation expectations to converge on the central bank’s inflation target level by the prior public announcement and successful attainment of that target level The exchange rate is, in principle, decided by the interplay of supply and demand in the foreign exchange markets
Malaysia 2005 - Shifted from a fixed exchange rate regime to a managed float against a basket of currencies Exchange rate determined demand and supply in the foreign exchange market. Economic fundamentals and market conditions are the primary determinants of the level of the ringgit exchange rate
Pakistana Floating inter-bank exchange rate since 2001 Monetary-cum-exchange rate policies are judgment- and discretion-based rather than model- or rule-based
Philippines 2002 - Inflation targeting framework for monetary policy in January 2002 The Monetary Board determines the exchange rate policy of the country, determines the spot rates
Singapore
1981 - monetary policy has been centered on the management of the exchange rate. (1) Managed against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners and competitors. (2) Monetary Authority of Singapore operates a managed float regime withtrade-weighted exchange rate (3) Use of exchange rate as the intermediate target --> MAS gives up control over domestic interest rates (and money supply).
Sri Lanka Independently floating exchange rate regime within a framework of targeting monetary aggregates Reserve money (i.e., high powered money) as the operating target broad money (M2b) as the intermediate target.
Thailand 1997 - Managed-float exchange rate regime Value of baht is determined by market forces (both on-shore and off-shore foreign exchange market Bank of Thailand implements monetary policy by influencing short-term money market rates
Viet Nam Crawling peg with the US dollar for its exchange rate Set official exchange rate daily and dealing rate within a trading band of plus or minus 0.25%percent. Currencey if depreciated against US dollar by keeping the exchange rate on an upward trend.
De Jure Exchange Rate Classification- Asia
Theevolu&onandimpactofAsianExchangerateregimes,RamkishenS.Rajanno.208,July2010
Key components of Inflation Targeters
Theevolu&onandimpactofAsianExchangerateregimes,RamkishenS.Rajanno.208,July2010
• ThereisnodiscrepancybetweenthedejureanddefactoregimesofHongKong,China,whichoperatesanexchangeratefixedtotheUSdollar
• India,Malaysia,Pakistan,Singapore,andThailandarecategorizedasmanagedfloaters,broadlyconsistentwiththeirofficialpronouncements
• KoreaandthePhilippinesarecharacterizedasindependentfloaters,consistentwiththeirofficialasser+onsbutsomewhatoddinviewofthefactthatbothcountrieshavebeenrapidlybuildingupreserves.
• VietNamisclassifiedashavingaconven+onalfixedpegregimecomparedtoitsofficialpronouncementofmaintainingacrawlingpegandbandaroundtheUSdollar.
• Bangladesh,Indonesia,andSriLankahavealsobeencharacterizedasmanagedfloaters(withnopredeterminedexchangeratepath),despitetheirofficialdeclara+onsofbeingindependentfloaters
Findings
• Centralbanksshouldprac@cebothinfla@ontarge@ngandsubstan@alinterven@on
• Thecorrela@onbetweentheinfla@onrateandtheexchangeratemovementisreviewedforAsianinfla@ontarge@ngcountries
• Monetarypolicyac@onsinordertokeeptheinfla@onratestablecaninternalizetheimpactontheexchangeratefromtheinfla@onshock
• Anexchangerateshockmaybecounteredbymonetarypolicythatwillkeepboththeexchangerateandtheinfla@onratestable
Key Takeaways
• ExchangeratearrangementsforEastAsiapost-crisis:examiningthecaseforopeneconomyinfla+ontarge+ng,TonyCavoliandRamkishenRajan,April2003
• IMFpolicypaper,condi+onalityinevolvingmonetarypolicyregimes,March2014• Theroleofexchangerateininfla+ontarge+ng,TakatoshiIto,UniversityofTokyo,post-conferenceversionfinal,
May2007• Thecountrychronologiesandbackgroundmaterialtoexchangeratearrangementsintothe21stcentury:Will
theanchorcurrencyhold?Ethanilzetzki,LondonSchoolofEconomics,CarmenM.Reinhart,UniversityofMarylandandNBER,KennethS.Rogoff,HarvarduniversityandNBER,March2011
• Annualreportonexchangearrangementsandexchangerestric+ons,IMF,2014• Infla+ontarge+ngturns20,ScoDRoger,March2010• Theevolu+onandimpactofAsianExchangerateregimes,RamkishenS.Rajanno.208,July2010• Characterizingexchangerateregimesinpost-crisiseastasia,TaimurBaig,IMF,AsiaandPacificdepartment,
October2001• Dejureversusdefactoexchangerateregimesinsub-saharanafrica,SlaviSlavov,imf,August2011• Exchangeratearrangementsenteringthe21stcentury:whichanchorwillhold?,EthanIlzetzki,CarmenM.
ReinhartandKennethS.Rogoff• Themodernhistoryofexchangeratearrangements:areinterpreta+on*,Carmenm.ReinhartandKennethS.
Rogoff,quarterlyjournalofeconomics,February2004• Macroeconomicpolicy,thedefini+onofinfla+ontarge+ng,JenniferSmith-UniversityofWarwick
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