inflation and its effect

8/8/2019 Inflation and Its Effect

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Presentation Transcript

introduction :

introduction Inflation

Inflation :

Inflation This is the process by which the price level rises and money loses value.

There are two kinds of inflation: a) Demand pull b) Cost push

Demand pull inflation :

Demand pull inflation Demand pull inflation may be due to : Increase in moneysupply Increase in government purchases Increase in exports

Cost push Inflation :

Cost push Inflation Cost push inflation may arise because of : Increase in money

wage rates Increase in money prices of raw materials.
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Hyper inflation :

Hyper inflation Extremely rapid or out of control inflation. There is no precise

numerical definition to hyperinflation. Price increases are so out of control that the

concept of inflation is meaningless. The most famous example of hyperinflation

occurred in Germany between January 1922 and November 1923. By some

estimates, the average price level increased by a factor of 20 billion!

Money and Prices During Hyperinflations :

Money and Prices During Hyperinflations Copyright 2004 South-Western (a)

Austria (b) Hungary Money supply Price level Index (Jan. 1921 = 100) Index (July

1921 = 100) Price level 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 1925 1924 1923 1922 1921

Money supply 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 1925 1924 1923 1922 1921

Stagflation :

Stagflation A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment

accompanied by inflation. This happened to a great extent during the 1970s, when

world oil prices rose dramatically, fueling sharp inflation in developed countries. At

least some central banks have expressed concern over inflation even as the global

economy seems to be slowing down.

Money Supply, Money Demand, and the Equilibrium Price Level :

Money Supply, Money Demand, and the Equilibrium Price Level Copyright 2004

South-Western Quantity of Money Value of Money, 1 / P Price Level, P 0 1 (Low)

(High) (High) (Low) 1 / 2 1 / 4 3 / 4 1 1.33 2 4

The Effects of Excess Money Supply :

The Effects of Excess Money Supply Copyright 2004 South-Western Quantity of

Money Value of Money, 1 / P Price Level, P 0 1 (Low) (High) (High) (Low) 1 / 2 1 / 4

3 / 4 1 1.33 2 4

How is inflation measured? :


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How is inflation measured? WPI (Wholesale Price Index) India- the only major

country that uses WPI (1st published in 1902) What is WPI? The WPI number is a

weekly measure of wholesale price movement for the economy

WPI- The Indian Example :

WPI- The Indian Example Indian government constructed its present WPI way back

in 1993-94 (1993-94 series replacing 1981-82 bases) by making a basket of 435

commodities Laspeyres formula employed The 100-point index is subdivided into

three groups

Slide 12:

Major Groups: I. Primary Articles (98 items)- 22.02 % Food Articles, Non-FoodArticles, Minerals II. Fuel, Power, Light & Lubricants (19 items) - 14.23 % III.

Manufactured Products (318 items) - 63.75 % Food Products Beverages, Tobacco &

Tobacco Products Textiles etc

Slide 13:

The Office of the Economic Advisor (OEA) compile the WPI numbers on weekly basis

On Friday inflation figures are announced The working group on WPI, headed by

Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen, has worked out a new index The base

year of the new index :2000-01 The basket of commodities- around 1200 To Reflect

the post-liberalisation consumption pattern

Consumer Price Index (CPI) :

Consumer Price Index (CPI) A measure of the average price of consumer goods and

services purchased by households (1st published in 1970) CPI indicates the change

in the purchasing power of the consumer CPI for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW), CPI for

Agricultural Labourers / Rural Labourers (CPI -AL/RL), CPI for Urban Non-Manual

Employees (CPI-UNME) Published on a monthly basis

Slide 15:

Producer Price Index (PPI) Measures average changes in prices received by

domestic producers for their output Service Price Index (SPI) The share of the


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service sector in the (GDP) gone up from 28% (1950) to over 50% Necessitates

representation of Services in the price index

Discussion question :

Discussion question Why is inflation bad?

Slide 17:

Unanticipated inflation is bad because it makes the economy behave like a giant

casino. Gains and losses occur because of unpredictable changes in the value of

money. If the value of money varies unpredictably over time, the quantity of goods

and services that money will buy will also fluctuate unpredictably. Resources are

also diverted from productive activities to forecasting inflation. Unanticipatedinflation leads to : Redistribution of income, borrowers and lenders Too much or too

little lending or borrowing

The Economic Impacts of Inflation :

The Economic Impacts of Inflation Redistribution of Income and wealth among

different groups Distortion in relative prices and outputs of different goods, or

sometimes in output and employment for the economy as a whole.

THE COSTS OF INFLATION :

THE COSTS OF INFLATION Shoe leather costs Menu costs Tax distortions Confusion

and inconvenience Arbitrary redistribution of wealth

Shoe leather costs :

Shoe leather costs Shoe leather costs are the resources wasted when inflation

encourages people to reduce their money holdings. Inflation reduces the real valueof money, so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings. Less cash

requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-bearing

accounts.

Menu costs :


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Menu costs Menu costs are the costs of adjusting prices. During inflationary times, it

is necessary to update price lists and other posted prices. This is a resource-

consuming process that takes away from other productive activities.

Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion :

Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion The income tax treats the nominal interest earned

on savings as income, even though part of the nominal interest rate merely

compensates for inflation. The after-tax real interest rate falls, making saving less

attractive.

Taming Inflation :

Taming Inflation Monetary policy- Bank rate policies, Open Market operations,Reserve requirement ratios Fiscal policy-taxation, public borrowing, public

expenditure Direct Control-Fixing ceiling prices of the products, Rationing.

Miscellaneous methods-Controlling Wages, Controlling population growth

The Effects of Monetary Injection :

The Effects of Monetary Injection Copyright 2004 South-Western Quantity of

Money Value of Money, 1 / P Price Level, P 0 1 (Low) (High) (High) (Low) 1 / 2 1 / 4

3 / 4 1 1.33 2 4

Slide 25:

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