Employment Projections Overview 2012-22

Erin LaneEconomist

Employment Projections ProgramNAF Industry Panel

7/10/2014

Employment Projections Background

10-year projections made every 2 years

2012-22 projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries

BLS projections prepared at the national level only

2

Employment Projections Products

Occupational Outlook Handbook

Occupational Outlook Quarterly

Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation

Technical materials—replacement rates, education and training categories, and more

3

Employment Projections Process

Labor ForceTotal and by

age, sex, race and ethnicity

Aggregate EconomyGDP, total

employment, and major demand

categoriesOccupation

al Employmen

t

Job openings due to growth & replacement

needs

Industry Final Demand

Sales to consumers, businesses,

government, and foreigners

Industry Employment

Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage &

salary employment

Industry OutputUse and Make Relationships,

Total Requirements Tables

Population

Labor force participation rate trends

Demographics Fiscal policy

Foreign economies Energy prices Monetary policy

Staffing patterns

Staffing pattern ratio analyses

Staff expertise

Replacement rates

Economic censuses

Annual economic surveys

Other data sources

Industry output

Sector wage rates

Technological change

Input-Output Tables

4

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22

Health care and social assistance Professional and business services

Construction Leisure and hospitality

Retail trade State and local government

Financial activities Educational services

Other services Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing Mining

Utilities Information

Federal government Manufacturing

4,994.1

3,482.8

1,622.1

1,289.2

1,090.9

929.0

751.0

675.3

648.9

470.4

327.3

121.2

-56.4

-65.2

-407.5

-549.55

Thousands of wage and salary jobs

Service providing

Goods producing

Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22

Health care and social assistance Construction

Educational services Professional and business services

Mining Other services

Financial activities Leisure and hospitality

Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing

Retail trade State and local government

Information Manufacturing

Utilities Federal government

2.6%

2.6%

1.9%

1.8%

1.4%1.0%

0.9%0.9%

0.8%

0.7%0.7%

0.5%

-0.2%

-0.5%

-1.1%

-1.6%6

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment

Service providingGoods producing

Total nonagricultura

l wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%

Employment Outlook: 2012-22

Occupational Employment

7

Percent Change vs. Numeric Change

8

Audiologists

Retail salespersons

33.6%

9.8%

Percent employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012-22

Audiologists

Retail salespersons

4.3

434.7

Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012-22, in thousands

Percent Change in Employment

by Major Occupational Group

Healthcare support

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Construction and extraction

Personal care and service

Computer and mathematical

Community and social service

Business and financial operations

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

Education, training, and library

Legal

Life, physical, and social science

28.1%

21.5%

21.4%

20.9%

18.0%

17.2%

12.5%

12.5%

11.1%

10.7%

10.1%9

Projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

Employment Change by Major Occupational

GroupHealthcare practitioners and technical

Office and administrative support

Construction and extraction

Healthcare support

Personal care and service

Food preparation and serving related

Sales and related

Education, training, and library

Business and financial operations

Transportation and material moving

Building and grounds cleaning and main-tenance

1,732.9

1,534.0

1,301.9

1,155.8

1,122.9

1,101.8

1,095.5

1,015.8

898.1

790.6

691.0

10

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

Fastest Growing Occupations

11

Percent change, projected 2012-22

Median annual wages, May 2012

$83,580

$19,910

$20,820

$39,170

$45,430

$65,860

$28,220

$53,240

$56,800

$52,160

Industrial-organizational psychologists

Personal care aides

Home health aides

Insulation workers, mechanical

Interpreters and translators

Diagnostic medical sonographersHelpers--brickmasons, blockmasons,

stonemasons, and tile and marble set-ters

Occupational therapy assistants

Genetic counselors

Physical therapist assistants

53.4%

48.8%

48.5%

46.7%

46.1%

46.0%

43.0%

42.6%

41.2%

41.0%

Fastest Growing Healthcare Occupations

12

Percent change, projected 2012-22

Median annual wages, May 2012

$20,820

$65,860

$53,240

$56,800

$52,160

$23,880

$90,930

$26,850

$79,860

$62,670

Home health aides

Diagnostic medical sonographers

Occupational therapy assistants

Genetic counselors

Physical therapist assistants

Physical therapist aides

Physician assistants

Occupational therapy aides

Physical therapists

Orthotists and prosthetists

48.5%

46.0%

42.6%

41.2%

41.0%

40.1%

38.4%

36.2%

36.0%

35.5%

Median annual wages, May 2012

$19,910

$65,470

$21,110

$20,820

$18,260

$24,420

$32,410

$30,580

$22,320

$29,990

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

Occupations with the Largest Job Growth

Personal care aides

Registered nurses

Retail salespersons

Home health aides

Combined food preparation and serv-ing workers, including fast food

Nursing assistantsSecretaries and administrative assis-tants, except legal, medical, and ex-

ecutiveCustomer service representatives

Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners

Construction laborers

580.8

526.8

434.7

424.2

421.9

312.2

307.8

298.7

280.0

259.8

13

Education and Training Classification

14

Consists of three categories of information for each occupation:

Typical education needed for entry

Work experience in a related occupation

Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation

Education and Training Classification

15

Assignments to each category based on analysis by BLS analysts

Quantitative research American Community Survey (ACS)

data O*NET data National Center for Education

Statistics (NCES) data Qualitative research

Interviews with occupational experts

Median annual wages, May 2012

$96,420

$63,400

$67,140

$57,590

$34,760

$28,730

$35,170

$20,110

Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category: 2012

16

Doctoral or professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Postsecondary non-degree award

Some college, no degree

High school diploma or equivalent

Less than high school

4,002.4

2,432.2

26,033.0

5,954.9

8,554.2

1,987.2

58,264.4

38,127.6

Thousands of jobs

Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education

Category

Doctoral or professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Postsecondary non-degree award

Some college, no degree

High school diploma or equiva-lent

Less than high school

16.0%

18.4%

12.1%

17.6%

15.6%

11.3%

7.9%

10.9%

17

Percent change, projected 2012-22Average, all occupations = 10.8%

Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education

Category

Doctoral or professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Postsecondary non-degree award

Some college, no degree

High school diploma or equivalent

Less than high school

638.4

448.5

3,143.6

1,046.0

1,337.1

225.0

4,630.8

4,158.4

18

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

Education and Training: Top 10 fastest-growing healthcare

occupations

19

Occupation Title

Percent

Change

2012-22

Median annual wage, 2012

Typical education needed for entry

Typical on-the-job training needed

Home health aides 48.5 $20,820 Less than high school Short-term on-the-job training

Diagnostic medical sonographers 46.0 $65,860 Associate's degree None

Occupational therapy assistants 42.6 $53,240 Associate's degree None

Genetic counselors 41.2 $56,800 Master's degree None

Physical therapist assistants 41.0 $52,160 Associate's degree None

Physical therapist aides 40.1 $23,880 High school diploma or equivalent Short-term on-the-job training

Physician assistants 38.4 $90,930 Master's degree None

Occupational therapy aides 36.2 $26,850 High school diploma or equivalent Short-term on-the-job training

Physical therapists 36.0 $79,860 Doctoral or professional degree None

Orthotists and prosthetists 35.5 $62,670 Master's degree Internship/residency

Education and Training: Top 10 Healthcare Occupations with the

largest job growth

20

Occupation TitleJob openings due to growth and replacement needs,

2012-22, in thousands

Median annual wage, 2012

Typical education needed for

entry

Typical on-the-job training needed

Registered nurses 1,052.6 $65,470Associate's

degreeNone

Nursing assistants 593.6 $24,420Postsecondary

non-degree award

None

Home health aides 590.7 $20,820Less than high

schoolShort-term on-the-

job training

Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 363.1 $41,540

Postsecondary non-degree

awardNone

Medical assistants 269.9 $29,370Postsecondary

non-degree award

None

Physicians and surgeons, all other 152.6 >=$187,200Doctoral or professional

degree

Internship/residency

Dental assistants 137.2 $34,500Postsecondary

non-degree award

None

Physical therapists 123.7 $79,860Doctoral or professional

degreeNone

Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 120.6 $31,020

Postsecondary non-degree

awardNone

Dental hygienists 113.5 $70,210Associate's

degreeNone

Typical entry-level education, Healthcare

21

Associate's Degree19%

Bachelor's Degree11%

Doctoral or Pro-fessional Degree

25%

High School Diploma or Equivalent

16%

Less than high school1%

Master's Degree11%

Postsecondary non-degree award

15%

Typical Entry-level Education, Healthcare Occupations

Typical on-the-job training, Healthcare

22

63%11%

5%

1%

19%

Typical On-The-Job Training, Healthcare Occupations

None

Short-term on-the-job training

Moderate-term on-the-job training

Long-term on-the-job train-ing

Internship/residency

Education Pays

23

Employment Outlook: 2012-22

Resources for Additional Information

24

Occupational Outlook Handbook

25

www.bls.gov/ooh

Occupational Outlook Quarterly

26

www.bls.gov/ooq

Employment Projections Program

27

www.bls.gov/emp

Useful Employment Projections Sites

28

Technical documentation of Employment Projections program methods and data

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_tech_documentation.htm

Other Employment Projections program publications, including past Monthly Labor Review articles

http://www.bls.gov/emp/publications.htm

Frequently asked questions

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_faq_001.htm

Contact Information

Erin LaneEconomist

Employment Projections Programwww.bls.gov/emp

202-691-5703lane.erin@bls.gov