industry trends and their impact on today’s operating systems sco f… · 08.08.2005 ·...
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www.idc.com
Industry Trends and Their Impact on Today’s Operating Systems
Al GillenResearch Director, System Software
SCO Forum
August 8, 2005
IDC © 2005
Discussion AgendaDiscussion Agenda
1. A Confluence of Industry Transitions
2. Virtual machine software, 64-bit, and standardization
3. The SCO Group then and now
4. What happens next?
5. Q&A
IDC © 2005
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
A Confluence of Industry TransitionsA Confluence of Industry TransitionsS
cale
of S
yste
m (
proc
esso
rs,
OS
, con
nect
ed u
sers
)
SMP
ScalabilityMixed
Clustering
Linux and
Open Source
Software
Virtualization
on x86
Multicore
Processors
x86 64 -
bit
Managed
Virtualization
(Dynamic IT)
OS
Commoditization
Licensing
Changes
Aging Y2K
Unix Installs
IDC © 2005
How Does IDC View Virtualization?How Does IDC View Virtualization?
§More than just virtual machines!
§ Abstracts system functions away from the underlying hardware
§ Functions are no longer tied to a single host or device
§Creates the appearance of single computing environment
§Or, creates multiple computing environments on a single platform
§Optimizes use of each host and boosts server utilization
§ The tradeoff: increased complexity for a consolidated infrastructure
VirtualizedEnvironment
IDC © 2005
Use of (Server) Virtual Machine SoftwareDo you use virtual machine software to support multiple server OSes on a single piece of hardware?Use of (Server) Virtual Machine SoftwareDo you use virtual machine software to support multiple server OSes on a single piece of hardware?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%To
tal
50-4
99
500-
4,99
9
5,00
0+
Fin
Svs
Gov
Mfg
Tele
com
Notsure
Yes
No
Source: IDC, 2004, Unix to Linux Software Multiclient Study
n=313QB20Base: Random rotation of respondents
IDC © 2005
Platforms Supporting (Server) Virtual Machine SoftwareWhat platforms do you use virtual machine software aboard?Platforms Supporting (Server) Virtual Machine SoftwareWhat platforms do you use virtual machine software aboard?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%To
tal
50-4
99
500-
4,99
9
5,00
0+
Fin
Svs
Gov Mfg
Tele
com
DK
Otherplatform(specify)
IBM iSeries
IBMmainframe orzSeries
Unix/RISC(IBM, Sun,HP)
Intel, AMD orother x86/x86 extended
Source: IDC, 2004, Unix to Linux Software Multiclient Study
n=88QB21Base: Respondents using virtual machine software
IDC © 2005
Why Use Virtual Machine SoftwareWhat is the reason for using virtual machine software?Why Use Virtual Machine SoftwareWhat is the reason for using virtual machine software?
0 20 40 60 80
Total
50-499
500-4,999
5,000+
Fin Svs
Gov
Mfg
Telecom DK
Other (specify)
Preserving legacyapp SW written for adifferent OS
Preserving legacyapps that won't runon current platforms
To allow sharinghardware resourceswith multiple users
For testing or versionmanagementpurposes
For consolidatingmultiple OSes aboarda single hardware
Source: IDC, 2004, Unix to Linux Software Multiclient Study
n=313QB22Base: Random rotation of respondents
IDC © 2005
Impact of Multicore ProcessorsImpact of Multicore Processors
§More power in the same footprint
§Benefits for existing operating systems, applications
§Solves scalability needs in smaller form factors, smaller processor “socket” counts
§Contributes to the crossroads affecting licensing
§A driver of industry transitions
IDC © 2005
§How big would 64-bits be?
§Hint: The 50 United States covers ~4 million sq miles
§How big is 32 bits vs. 64 bits?
§Mapping one square inch to each addressable memory location at 32 bits yields 1 square mile.
Impact of 64-Bit ProcessorsImpact of 64-Bit Processors
More than 1,200 times the area of the United States
IDC © 2005
Benefits of 64-bit ProcessorsBenefits of 64-bit Processors
§ If it isn’t broken…§Better performance§Better scale§Nondisruptive hardware upgrade§Nondisruptive OS upgrade§Nondisruptive application software upgrade
IDC © 2005
Licensing Complexities in Datacenter EnvironmentsLicensing Complexities in Datacenter EnvironmentsVirtualization – here today and impacting licensing§ VMware GSX, ESX, Virtual SMP, VirtualCenter, Vmotion§ IBM Hypervisor, HP VSE, Xen, Veritas, Citrix § New startups offering clustering, grid computing
Dynamic IT deployments – next big licensing challenge§ Provisioning for Dynamic IT§ Lifecycle unpredictable
Current license models losing relevance§ Value prop of perpetual rights§ Need for expandability on as-needed basis§ Static perpetual rights unsuitable for Dynamic IT
Upside may exist for revamped licensing§ Pricing and usage Ts and Cs critical for happy customers§ Potential for upside, but only if priced right
IDC © 2005
A Trend toward Standardization A Trend toward Standardization
§ By vendor (eg., HP hardware or MS OS)§ By system (RISC/Unix)§ By HS or SW architecture (x86, Linux)§ By database layer§ By enterprise application layer§ By virtualization technology layer
Trying to simplify the datacenter environment
The Goal: Easing management and updating tasks
Approaches to standardization vary, including the following:
IDC © 2005
What Happens Next: How Change is Influencing the IndustryWhat Happens Next: How Change is Influencing the Industry
§Utilization rates will climb§Customers will favor standardized architectures§Survivors and winners live atop the standardization layers
– It’s not enough to “ride” on the wave– Need to harness the wave for users’ benefit– Industry standard building blocks becoming key
§Ability to play in a dynamic IT environment essential§Change is in the wind, but Unix does not have to be left
behind (especially on x86)§Long-term “survivors” will be Windows, Linux and Unix§OS becomes a building block over time – apps are the key
to customer deployment
IDC © 2005
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Combined Windows SOE Combined Linux SOE (Paid) Combined Unix SOE Novell NetWare Other Host/Server/NOS
Operating Systems ForecastsWorldwide server operating environment new license shipments, 2001-2008 (000)Operating Systems ForecastsWorldwide server operating environment new license shipments, 2001-2008 (000)
Shi
pmen
ts (
000)
2003-2008 CAGRs
Linux: 19.7% Windows: 10.8%Unix: flat
IDC © 2005
SCO Group – January 2003 ReviewSCO Group – January 2003 Review
§ Business– Business suffering from channel competition– Direct competition from Microsoft and Linux– Name recognition low, little end user pull
§ Strategy– No clear roadmap for development or product strategies
§ Products– SCO Unix products have deep history, broad customer installed base– Linux compatibility/migration strategy OK– Developer programs are weak compared to Microsoft
IDC © 2005
SCO Group – Then and NowSCO Group – Then and NowBusiness§ Retain/grow channel partners
– Channel partners need compelling reason to join– Competitive platforms continue to be attractive, offering growth opportunity– However, the Linux alternative is less compelling for existing ISVs
§ Need to grow beyond your current install base– Continues to be challenge, but new products and strategies will help– Linux is looking more like traditional OS products
§ Need to capture SMB Linux opportunities before somebody else– Linux growth in SMB is lagging expectations
§ Must counter the influence of Red Hat on channel partners– Red Hat has refocused, but Microsoft continues to be threat– Opportunity to co-opt Sun, Mac OS solutions and partners– Opportunity for ISVs and especially resellers to broaden their portfolio
§ Must develop “market pull” for solutions based on SCO products – Industry resurgence for Unix on x86 – Sun Solaris 10 for x86, Mac OS X on its
way, etc. may help rebuild market pull§ Need to boost name recognition
– Done
IDC © 2005
SCO Group – Then and NowSCO Group – Then and NowStrategy§ Develop road map for ISV partners
– Done
§ Must help partners develop compelling new solutions based on SCO Unix
– OpenServer 6 “Legend” release helps make this possible
§ Value and importance of OS is being abstracted away by virtualization technologies.
– New news today provides roadmap to address this– OS layer remains critical, but how it is used may change
IDC © 2005
SCO Group – Then and NowSCO Group – Then and Now
Products§ Application portability to/from Linux is important… remains a
huge benefit to current developers and ISVs, but of less interest to other developers
– OpenServer 6 resolves most of these issues and now is up to par with other non-Microsoft software stacks
– Solutions need to be based on standard technologies
§ No in-house software stack for developers. Where is the application server, JVM and other industry standard virtualization technologies?
– Java, MySQL, PostgreSQL, Apache, Mozilla, Tomcat Javaservlet container, Samba file and print services – Done!
IDC © 2005
Essential GuidanceEssential Guidance
§ Utilization rates of servers will climb
§ Customers will favor standardized architectures
§ Survivors/winners live atop the standardization layers – It’s not enough to “ride” on the wave– Need to harness the wave for users’ benefit– Industry standard building blocks becoming key
§ Ability to play in a dynamic IT environment essential
§ Change is in the wind, but Unix does not have to be left behind (especially on x86)
§ Long-term survivors” will be Windows, Linux and Unix
§ OS becomes a building block over time – apps are the key to customer deployment
