industry report - bnkfn.co.kr

2015 ‘’
‘Overweight()’ 2015 1) NAND , 2) DRAM
, 3) DRAM , 4) .
,
. 2015 (),
Overweight .
2015 2015 NAND Killer Application
NAND . , Trend
SSD NAND .
2015 NAND 16Gb Eq 419, 418
.
2015 DRAM DRAM Capa
, Capa
. , DRAM Mobile DRAM
GB/Box . 2015 DRAM 2Gb
Eq 290, 315 .
Top Pick SK( 61,000, ) 2015 SK .
SK 61,000 . SK
2014 2015
. 2013 DRAM ,
. 2015 Seller () , 2015
DRAM 1 .
(Not Rated) . Flip-Chip Embe
dded Type . Two-
Track Embedded .
TSV Interposer Motive .
[Overweight]
/
02) 3215-1592
Contents
III. NAND: 10-12nm → 3D NAND ............................................................................................14
1. ........................................................................................................................... 14
2. 3D NAND ...................................................................................................... 17
IV. DRAM: DRAM Technology Mission ..........................................................................20
1. 20nm ..................................................................................... 20
3. TSV ................................................................................................................................... 25
V. ReRAM, PRAM, STT-MRAM ? ..........................................................................28
1. .................................................................................................................. 28
2. ReRAM: HP ‘The Machine’ .......................................................................................... 29
3. PRAM: Buffer Memory ................................................................................................... 30
4. STT-MRAM: ................................................................... 31
VI. ............................................................................................................................................33
(067310/Not Rated) ................................................................................................................. 44
I. Investment Summary
‘(Overweight)’
2015 1) NAND , 2) DRAM
, 3) DRAM , 4)
. ,
. 2015 ,
Overweight .
NAND 2015 NAND Tight .
NAND 10nm
, 3D NAND .
, Fab Phase 2 .
[1] .
[1] 2015 NAND Tight [2] NAND Tech Migration()
99%99%
100%100%
(16Gb Eq.

(nm) NAND Flash
NAND 90 64 32 16 12
DRAM 90 70 45 26 18
: BS : ITRS, Intel, BS
[1] 3D NAND , , IPS

- Fab Phase 2
- 3D NAND
IPS
- PE CVD ONO .
- PE CVD

(095610)
- Hardmask . ACL
- ACL PE CVD
: BS
DRAM 2015 2014 .
DRAM 20nm ,
DRAM . EUV QPT
. TSV DRAM .
DRAM TSV .
, , SK, Micron DRAM TSV
. TSV
[2] .
[3] 2015 DRAM [4] DRAM Tech Migration()
94%
93%
93%
(2Gb Eq.
(nm) NAND Flash
DRAM 90 70 45 26 18
NAND 90 64 32 16 12
: BS : ITRS, Intel, BS
[2] TSV , SK,

(005930)
- TSV DRAM
→ DRAM
- Exynos5 OCTA Mobile AP TSV
→ TSV
SK
(000660)
→ DRAM
- HBM DRAM
- HBM DRAM , , , ( )
→ HBM DRAM

(067310)
→ TSV
- 2.5D IC DRAM TSV
→ 2.5D IC
: BS
Top Pick SK ,
SK( 61,000, ) 2015
Top Pick . 4
. 2015 ,
. DRAM
Seller’s Market .
, 4
. 2015 Seller , 2015
DRAM 1 . SK
61,000 .
( 145, ) .

. 2014 2013 68%
(IM) . 2014
.
.

.
(Not Rated) Flip-Chip Embedded Type
. Two-Track
Embedded . TSV Interposer
Motive . TSV Interposer
.
[3] , SK, Valuation (:, %, )
() P/E P/B EV/EBITDA ROE
() () () () () () (%) ()
SK 2013 14,165 3,380 2,872 9.0 2.0 4.3 25.2 31,841
61,000 / () 2014E 16,261 4,808 3,624 8.7 1.9 3.9 24.3
2015E 17,428 5,303 4,153 7.7 1.5 3.2 22.1
2013 228,693 36,785 29,821 8.2 1.7 3.1 22.8 178,232
145 / () 2014E 207,313 26,775 23,714 8.7 1.2 2.7 15.3
2015E 208,147 24,070 23,112 8.9 1.1 2.6 13.1
2013 278.1 -5.5 -20.2 N/A 1.0 10.5 -15.8 179
Not Rated 2014E 291.2 26.0 15.9 11.1 1.3 6.6 12.7
2015E 325.2 34.4 27.6 6.4 1.1 5.4 19.0
: 2014 9 19
: BS
1. NAND: 2015 Tight
2014 7 ‘ ’ NAND 2015
. NAND Killer
Application( ) SSD .
NAND , 2015
NAND 2014 Tight . NAND
SSD . NAND
TLC, 3D NAND
NAND . 2015 Global NAND
419(+37%YoY, 16Gb Eq.), 418(+37%YoY, 16Gb Eq.) ,
Tight .
[5] Global NAND Supply/Demand : 2015 Tight
99% 99%
100% 100%
1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15E
(16Gb Eq. ) Total NAND Supply Total NAND Demand Sufficiency Ratio

: BS
[6] NAND : . Gap
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
(US$)64G MLC premium(vs. )
64G MLC_
64G MLC_
: Killer Application
2015 NAND Killer Application
.
NAND , Tablet PC
. NAND Killer Application
. 2015 10%
NAND
. 1ynm 2015 NAND Flash
.
[7] Mobile NAND [8] NAND QoQ Bit Growth 10%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
10
15
20
25
30
() Global NAND (LHS)
(16Gb Eq.
[4] NAND Capa (: 12 /)
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E 2013 2014E 2015E
Wafer Production 1,054 1,125 1,130 1,140 1,154 1,183 1,205 1,230 1,036 1,112 1,193
Samsung 322 325 325 330 337 352 365 370 335 326 356
SK Hynix 110 150 150 150 152 156 160 165 140 140 158
Toshiba / SanDisk 390 410 415 420 425 430 435 440 365 409 433
Micron / Intel 230 235 235 235 235 240 240 250 191 234 241
: BS
2015 ‘’
:
2015 NAND , SSD
.
6 , NAND . 6
NAND 16/32/64GB 16/64/128GB . 6
. 6
2 , 2 .
6 NAND
.
SSD NAND .
NAND TLC, 3D NAND
. SSD
. NAND SSD
.
6 6, 6 Plus 1.5
[10] NAND TLC :
TLC 2015 40%
5
10
20
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
() 6 6
SLC MLC TLC
: Google, BS : BS
[11] NAND SSD [12] ASP PC SSD
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Removable SSD Embedded
Industrial Enterprise Storage Enterprise Server MainstreamPC Entry-Level PC Blended ASP
: BS : DRAMeXchange, BS
9
ECONOMY
2015 ‘’
[5] Global NAND Supply/Demand : 2015 Tight (: 16Gb Eq. , %)
Total NAND Flash Supply 6,751 7,344 7,887 8,649 9,127 9,927 10,934 12,008 22,237 30,630 41,997
B/G 6% 9% 7% 10% 6% 9% 10% 10% 40% 38% 37%
Total NAND Flash Demand 6,679 7,226 7,961 8,710 9,155 9,879 10,933 11,853 22,921 30,477 41,819
G/R 4% 8% 10% 9% 5% 8% 11% 8% 43% 33% 37%
1. Embedded 2,733 2,697 2,844 3,108 3,226 3,405 3,796 3,830 10,119 11,382 14,258
G/R -3% -1% 5% 9% 4% 6% 11% 1% 79% 12% 25%
Smartphone 1,375 1,414 1,489 1,672 1,612 1,739 2,073 2,227 4,958 5,949 7,651
Tablet PC 387 418 448 499 547 604 642 593 1,416 1,753 2,386
Featurephone 14 14 15 15 15 15 18 17 43 57 66
TV 75 96 105 103 126 136 139 147 301 378 548
Set Top Box 74 79 100 117 135 142 149 155 203 371 581
PMP 150 140 140 118 114 119 126 109 699 547 468
Digital Camera 15 15 16 15 16 15 13 12 68 62 57
Others 643 521 531 570 660 637 636 568 2,431 2,265 2,502
2. SSD 2,344 2,628 3,211 3,689 4,017 4,259 5,116 5,707 6,367 11,872 19,099
G/R 21% 12% 22% 15% 9% 6% 20% 12% 133% 86% 61%
3. Removable 1,601 1,901 1,905 1,913 1,912 2,214 2,021 2,315 6,434 7,320 8,463
G/R -4% 19% 0% 0% 0% 16% -9% 15% 19% 14% 16%
Flash Cards 1,070 1,270 1,272 1,277 1,218 1,413 1,287 1,477 4,385 4,889 5,395
USB Flash Drivers 531 631 633 636 694 801 734 839 2,050 2,432 3,068
Embedded NAND Demand 41% 37% 36% 36% 35% 34% 35% 32% 44% 37% 34%
SSD NAND Demand 35% 36% 40% 42% 44% 43% 47% 48% 28% 39% 46%
Removable NAND Demand 24% 26% 24% 22% 21% 22% 18% 20% 28% 24% 20%
Total NAND Flash Supply Sufficiency 103.5% 101.6% 99.1% 99.3% 99.7% 100.5% 100.0% 101.3% 99.3% 100.5% 100.4%
: BS
2015 ‘’
2. DRAM: 2015
2014 7 ‘ ’ DRAM 2015 Tight
. , DRAM
Buyer’s Market Seller’s Market DRAM
.
DRAM , 2015
DRAM . DRAM

. 2015 Global DRAM 290(+26%YoY,
2Gb Eq.), 315(+30%YoY, 2Gb Eq.)
.
94%
93%
93%
(2Gb Eq. ) Total DRAM Supply
Total DRAM Demand
Sufficiency Ratio
[14] DRAM :
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
(US$)4G DDR3 Premium (vs.) 4G DDR3- 4G DDR3 1333-
: DRAMeXchange, BS
: DRAM Shortage
1) 2015 17(LSI S3) DRAM
. 40K-60K(4-6) . 17
14nm FinFET() DRAM
. 17 25nm/20nm , Mobile DRAM, Server
DRAM .
2) SK 2015 Fab M14 DRAM .
DRAM Fab M14 2015 (8-9) . SK
DRAM Fab M10 LSI . M10 DRAM
M14 DRAM Capa .
SK DRAM Capa .
, 2015 DRAM Capa
, SK DRAM Capa . Micron Fab
NAND DRAM .
2015 DRAM .
[15] DRAM Capa [16] DRAM QoQ Bit Growth 10%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
(/,
Capa
-10%
0%
10%
20%
0
2
4
6
8
10
(2Gb.Eq.
: DRAMeXchange, BS : BS
[6] DRAM Capa (: 12 /)
Wafer Production 1,117 1,080 1,086 1,080 1,073 1,087 1,080 1,076 1,082 1,091 1,079
Samsung 375 365 365 365 360 385 386 390 364 368 380
SK Hynix 280 265 260 260 250 240 230 220 254 266 235
Micron Group 335 320 331 325 325 325 325 325 347 328 325
Nanya 55 52 52 52 55 52 52 52 59 53 53
Powerchip 54 57 57 57 60 60 62 62 38 56 61
Winbond 18 21 21 21 23 25 25 27 17 20 25
: BS
:
2015 DRAM DRAM
Mobile DRAM . Mobile DRAM (
) ‘’ ‘GB/Box( DRAM )’.
1) Mobile DRAM . 2015
10% .
. Mobile
DRAM Killer Application .
Mobile DRAM 1) Smart Watch Wearable
2) LTE . 2015 Mobile DRAM
82(+61%YoY, 2Gb Eq.) .
2) GB/Box Mobile DRAM factor. Google
6,399( 11) Android One .
Android One 512MB , 1GB DRAM
. GB/Box
, GB/Box . 2015 GB/Box
1.5GB/Box(+42%YoY) .
, 2015 Mobile DRAM .
Mobile DRAM 2015 47% . DRAM
. 2015 DRAM
.
[17] 50% [18] RAM(GB)
30%
40%
53%
59%
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
High($191≤) Mid-Low(≤$190) ASP
1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14E
(GB) High-Mid Low
13
ECONOMY
2015 ‘’
[7] Global DRAM Supply/Demand : 2015 DRAM (: 2Gb Eq. , %)
Total DRAM Supply 5,151 5,554 5,973 6,377 6,408 6,870 7,471 8,252 17,852 23,054 29,000
B/G 6% 8% 8% 7% 0% 7% 9% 10% 22% 29% 26%
Total DRAM Demand 5,384 5,630 6,322 6,888 6,870 7,486 8,354 8,820 18,931 24,225 31,529
G/R 7% 5% 12% 9% 0% 9% 12% 6% 26% 28% 30%
Units 1,015 1,009 1,100 1,098 1,053 1,066 1,142 1,125 4,116 4,221 4,385
GB/Box 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.8
1. PC DRAM Demand 1,180 1,248 1,583 1,621 1,502 1,507 1,807 1,816 5,329 5,632 6,633
G/R -7% 6% 27% 2% -7% 0% 20% 0% -9% 6% 18%
PC Units 73 72 87 84 76 75 89 87 314 315 326
GB/Box 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 4.3 4.6 5.2
2. Mobile DRAM Demand 1,800 2,143 2,554 2,847 3,065 3,441 3,955 4,200 5,489 9,343 14,661
G/R 5% 19% 19% 11% 8% 12% 15% 6% 67% 70% 57%
Mobile Units (Set) 654 669 702 715 704 721 748 745 2,602 2,740 2,918
GB/Box 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.9 1.3
2-1. Smartphone 971 1,125 1,378 1,604 1,663 1,924 2,204 2,388 3,076 5,077 8,179
G/R 0% 16% 22% 16% 4% 16% 15% 8% 73% 65% 61%
Smartphone Units (Set) 279 294 325 349 330 347 364 369 1,019 1,247 1,410
GB/Box 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.5
2-2. Tablet PC 298 349 422 453 518 586 685 713 772 1,522 2,503
G/R 19% 17% 21% 8% 14% 13% 17% 4% 119% 97% 64%
Tablet PC Units (Set) 73 79 88 89 94 100 110 108 242 328 412
GB/Box 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.6
2-3. Other Mobile DRAM 531 669 754 790 884 932 1,066 1,098 1,640 2,744 3,980
G/R 8% 26% 13% 5% 12% 5% 14% 3% 42% 67% 45%
Other Mobile Units (Set) 302 296 289 278 279 274 274 268 1,342 1,164 1,096
GB/Box 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.9
3. Other DRAM Demand 2,404 2,240 2,185 2,420 2,302 2,538 2,591 2,804 8,113 9,250 10,235
G/R 18% -7% -2% 11% -5% 10% 2% 8% 39% 14% 11%
Other Units 289 268 311 299 273 270 305 293 1,200 1,167 1,141
GB/Box 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.4 1.7 2.0 2.3
3-1. TV 212 227 243 259 277 295 314 332 700 941 1,219
G/R 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 39% 34% 30%
TV Units (Set) 51 52 52 52 53 53 53 53 202 207 212
GB/Box 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.5
PC DRAM Demand 22% 22% 25% 24% 22% 20% 22% 21% 28% 23% 21%
Mobile DRAM Demand 33% 38% 40% 41% 45% 46% 47% 48% 29% 39% 47%
Other DRAM Demand 45% 40% 35% 35% 34% 34% 31% 32% 43% 38% 32%
Total DRAM Supply Sufficiency 95.7% 98.6% 94.5% 92.6% 93.3% 91.8% 89.4% 93.6% 94.3% 95.2% 92.0%
: BS
2015 ‘’
III. NAND: 10-12nm → 3D NAND 1.
10nm
2D NAND 10nm
. 10nm 5nm ,
Wafer Die . Immersion ArF
2D NAND ‘QPT’ ‘EUV ’
. QPT
, . EUV Wafer
.
, SK 16nm , Toshiba 1nm
15nm .
[19] NAND Flash Tech Migration()
18 16 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014E 2016E 2018E 2020E 2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E
(nm) NAND Flash
NAND 90 64 32 16 12
DRAM 90 70 45 26 18
: ITRS, Intel, BS
[20] Wafer Die [8] NAND Flash Tech Migration Roadmap
39%
29%
25%
14%
0%
15%
30%
45%
200
400
600
800
1,000
(Gross Die /
Wafer)
MLC 32Gb(LHS) Gross Die (RHS) 12 13 14E 15E 16E 17E

SK

Gen1 Gen2 3D
: Gross Die , : Gartner, BS : IC Insights, BS
15
ECONOMY
NAND ‘ ↓ ↓’
, 2D NAND 10nm
. 2D NAND
.
1) 2D NAND
2D NAND Control Gate Floating Gate(
) .
2D NAND [21].
.
. ,
.
/ .
Control Gate ,
.
2D NAND MLC TLC SLC
( ) [9]. .
[21] Floating Gate NAND Flash (1 Transistor) [22] NAND Flash
1 Cell(bit) = 1 Transistor
: , BS : , BS
[9] NAND Flash SLC, MLC, TLC
SLC MLC TLC
Single Level Cell Multi Level Cell Triple Level Cell
Bit/Cell 1bit(2) 2bit(4) 3bit(8)
100,000 10,000 ~ 3,000 1,000
(Read Time) 25 50 ~75
(Write Time) 200 ~300 600 ~900 ~900 ~1350
(Erase Time) 1.5ms~2ms 3ms ~4.5ms
: ( ) – 1 / ms( ) – 1
: , BS
2015 ‘’
2) 2D NAND
[23] SLC . ,
MLC/TLC .
.
// , .
(Air-Gap) , ECC(Error Check and
Correct) [24] . 2D NAND
.
[23] [24] SLC → MLC → TLC ECC
100,000

ECC
: BS
: BS
[25] NAND Flash Cost Curve ‘NAND Flash ’
-6%
-11%
-17%
-8%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
60nm 55nm 50nm 45nm 40nm 35nm 30nm 25nm 20nm 15nm 10nm
($/Cost) NAND Flash Cost(LHS) Cost (RHS)

: MLC
2. 3D NAND
() →
NAND 3
. 2D NAND . , 3
3D(Vertical) NAND .
3D NAND . SK
Flash Memory Summit 2014 3D NAND ,
2015 3D NAND . 3D NAND
2015 .
3D NAND 2D NAND
. 2D NAND Floating Gate()
3D NAND Trap SiN() 3 Charge Trap Flash(CTF)
. ,
.
.
[26] 3D NAND:
[27] 3D NAND
: , BS : , , BS
18
3D NAND
7 ‘2014 Samsung Global SSD Summit’ 3D NAND
. 3D NAND
. 3D NAND 2D NAND 1) 10 , 2)
2 , 3) 50% . 4)

.
[28] 3D NAND 1) , 2) , 3) , 4)

: , BS
3D NAND 2D NAND . 2D NAND
30nm → 20nm → 10nm
. QPT , → →
. . , 3D NAND
. ()
.
[29] 3D NAND !
0.00
0.60
1.20
1.80
45nm 24 32 64 128 32nm 24 32 64 128 24 32 64 128
2D
MLC
NAND
MLC
NAND
3D MLC NAND at 32nm 3D TLC NAND at 32nm
($/Cost)
3D NAND , , IPS
3D NAND , , IPS .
3D NAND . 32
2 MLC 3D NAND , NAND Flash
. 3D NAND
.
IPS 3D NAND . 3D NAND
PE-CVD .
, PE CVD , IPS . IPS
ONO PE-CVD . Channel Hole
Hardmask ACL PE-CVD .
[10] 3D NAND , , IPS

- Fab Phase 2
- 3D NAND
IPS
- PE CVD ONO .
- PE CVD

(095610)
- Hardmask → ACL
- ACL PE CVD
: BS
2015 ‘’
IV. DRAM: DRAM Technology Mission 1. 20nm
Tech Migration
DRAM 20nm .
5nm , Wafer Die
20% . Capacitor 20nm
, ‘QPT’ ‘EUV ’
. QPT
. EUV Wafer
.
, 3 20nm DRAM . SK
2016 20nm .
[30] DRAM Tech Migration()
28 26
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014E 2016E 2018E 2020E 2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E
(nm) NAND Flash
DRAM 90 70 45 26 18
NAND 90 64 32 16 12
: ITRS, Intel, BS
[31] Wafer Die 20% [11] DRAM Tech Migration Roadmap
26%
23%
26%
30%
25%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
45 nm 40 nm 36 nm 32 nm 28 nm 25 nm
(Gross
Die/Wafer)
<30nm
<20nm
Micron
<30nm
<20nm
: Gross Die : Gartner, BS : IC Insights, BS
21
ECONOMY
DRAM
DRAM Capacitor Transistor .
DRAM . .
1) , Capacitor A/R(Aspect Ratio, / )
DRAM Transistor 1 Capacitor 1 1 . Capacitor
DRAM .
DRAM Capacitor .
Capacitor ‘ ’ .
Capacitor . 1xnm
. [34] ,
Capacitor A/R (3xnm A/R: 30 →
2xnm A/R: 50 → 1xnm 100). 20nm Capacitor A/R
100 , Capacitor
. DRAM .
[32] DRAM (1 Transistor + 1 Capacitor) [33] Capacitor
Transistor
Capacitor
[34] 1xnm A/R 100
: SK Hynix, BS
22
2) , Transistor (Leakage Current)
Transistor 1) ,
2) . Transistor
. Transistor Gate Length() → Short Channel Effect(
) → Gate Controllability( ) →
(Leakage Current) . ,
Transistor .
Gate SiO2() HfO2( ),
ZrO2() High-K .
.
[35] Transistor Gate [36] High-K Gate
: 1) Gate Oxide SiO2()
2) Source → Drain ,

: Intel, BS
: Intel, BS

DRAM ‘QPT’ ‘EUV ’ 20nm
. DRAM Immersion ArF
38nm. DRAM 2 DPT
19nm .
10nm DPT QPT
. QPT Bottleneck() .
DPT Step . , QPT (CVD),
(Etching), (CMP) . DRAM QPT
. QPT DPT 15-30%
.
[37] 1) QPT DPT Step
QPT DPT
2) EUV Step
Step
: 1) Single Spacer=DPT, 2) Double Spacer=QPT
: ASML, BS
2015 ‘’
, 10nm EUV .
, EUV ASML . ASML EUV
Wafer , 7 34(
637) . ASML EUV 2016
125( 1,500) Wafer . , DRAM
EUV 100 Wafer
. EUV 2016
.
[38] ASML EUV – 1,500 [39] EUV Throughput (Wafer )
34
60
125
44
105
250
0
100
200
300
(Wafer/) Throughput(Wafers/, LHS)
[12] DRAM : SPT → DPT → QPT → EUV
DRAM
3. TSV
DRAM TSV ‘’ ‘’
8 TSV DRAM . SK
TSV DRAM . DRAM
3D TSV . DRAM NAND
3D .
TSV Package Die
Packaging . Packaging Die
Wire Bonding . [40] , TSV
Die Die → Cu() →
.
TSV Die Wire Bonding 1) Packiging
, 2) , 3) Bandwidth( )
Delay , 4) .
DRAM
. DRAM TSV .
TSV .
[40] 3D TSV DRAM:
Die [41] TSV 4 DRAM
Die TSV
26
DRAM TSV
, TSV DRAM , , .
, SK, Micron DRAM TSV
. DRAM TSV .
1)
TSV 64GB DDR4 DRAM
. 4GB DRAM 4 . TSV
/ DRAM
. TSV DRAM PC
.
. HBM DRAM 20nm DRAM 4 . 1,024 I/O(Input
Output, ) 128GB . SK TSV
AMD . SK TSV
HBM DRAM .
3) Micron
Micron HMC(Hybrid Memory Cube) . HMC DRAM
TSV . Micron 9 1 2GB HMC
. 2 HMC . Micron , 2 HMC
DDR3 15 , DDR4 5 . 2 HMC
1 . Micron TSV HMC
PC .
[42] SK HBM DRAM [43] HMC
DRAM
TSV
27
ECONOMY
TSV , SK .
TSV , SK, .
TSV 64GB DDR4 DRAM .
TSV DRAM 64GB → 128GB → 256GB
. DRAM
. DRAM .
SK TSV HBM DRAM DRAM
. SK HBM DRAM . HBM
DRAM , , , (
) . SK HBM DRAM
.
. DRAM
. 2.5D IC . 2.5D
IC DRAM TSV . SK
HBM DRAM 2.5D IC , AMD, TSMC
2.5D IC . 2.5D
IC .
[13] TSV , SK,

(005930)
- TSV DRAM .
→ DRAM
- Exynos5 OCTA Mobile AP TSV
→ TSV
SK
(000660)
→ DRAM
- HBM DRAM
- HBM DRAM , , , ( )
→ HBM DRAM

(067310)
→ TSV
- 2.5D IC DRAM TSV
→ 2.5D IC
: BS
V. ReRAM, PRAM, STT-MRAM ?
1.
→ →
DRAM NAND ‘ ’ ‘
’ . ,
,
.
10nm
. 1) ReRAM (Resistive RAM:
), 2) PRAM (Phase-change RAM: ), 3) STT-MRAM (Spin-
Transfer Torque Memory: ) .
[14] ‘ReRAM’ !

DRAM NAND ReRAM PRAM STT-RAM
1ynm 1znm <10nm <5nm <10nm
Cost/Gb↓() 3 2 1 4 5
() 1 5 2 4 3
Enduracne Cycle / 1 (1.E+17) 5 (1.E+04) 2 (1.E+12) 4 (1.E+08) 3 (1.E+12)

() 1 3 5 2 4

: 1) , 2) : BS
[44]
NAND
PRAM
E n d u ra n c e C yc
le (
)
: 1) E 10, 2) , 3) ns nano second , 10 1
: Gartner, BS
2. ReRAM: HP ‘The Machine’
ReRAM NAND
ReRAM(Resistive RAM: ) DRAM NAND
. ReRAM DRAM , NAND
. . ReRAM
.
. ReRAM
, . ReRAM 1) ,
2) , 3) , 4) , 5)
NAND Storage .
HP(Hewlett-Packard) HP Discover 2014 ‘ (The Machine)’
. (Memrister)
. Memory Resistor ,
.
‘ReRAM’ . ReRAM
.
SK IBM, HP ReRAM .
[45] ReRAM ( ) [46] ReRAM
: -ReRAM
(Filament)
-

: Panasonic, BS
: HP, BS
3. PRAM: Buffer Memory
PRAM DRAM NAND
PRAM(Phase-change RAM: ) DRAM NAND
. PRAM NAND
. PRAM .
5nm . 5nm
.
2006 512Mb PRAM , 2010 512Mb PRAM
. SK 2007
, 2012 IBM PRAM
. PRAM .
PRAM HDD/SDD
Buffer Memory( ).
PRAM DRAM NAND .
. PRAM (phase) (change)
. ,
.
, ReRAM
.
[47] PRAM ( ) [48] PRAM DRAM NAND :
PRAM Positioning
- PRAM ( ) ( )
.
: , BS
: Micron, BS
4. STT-MRAM:
STT-MRAM DRAM
STT-MRAM(Spin Transfer Torque Magnetic RAM: )
Capacitor MTJ(, Magnetic Tunnel Junction) Magnetic()
. MTJ Magnetic
. [50] , Magnetic Spin
. , Magnetic Spin
.
STT-RAM Magnetic NAND
.
, STT-MRAM DRAM
. 1) DRAM Fab , 2) MTJ

. STT-MRAM DRAM .
DRAM 1) , 2) , 3) .
, 2011 STT-MRAM Grandis()
. SK 2011 Toshiba STT-MRAM Cross Licensing
.
.
[49] STT-MRAM ( ) [50] STT-MRAM
: - STT-MRAM Magnetic()
- MTJ Magnetic Barrier Layer()
- Free Layer()
- Fixed Layer()
- Free Layer Fixed Layer
: EE Times, BS
: SK, BS
33
ECONOMY
VI.
(005930//, TP: 1,450,000 )
(067310/Not Rated)
3-4
SK 3 4.18(+6.5%QoQ), 1.28(+17.9%QoQ)
. 3 DRAM
3 SK
. 3 NAND
.
4 4.42(+5.7%QoQ), 1.39(+8.6%QoQ)
. SK 4 DRAM, NAND
. , 25nm DRAM 16nm
NAND . 25nm DRAM
50% , 16nm NAND 70%
. .
2015
SK 2014 2015
. 2015
. 2013 DRAM ,
. 2015 DRAM NAND Tight
, DRAM .
2015 SK 5.3(+10.3%YoY)
.
SK , 61,000 . 12
Forward BPS P/B 2.2 . 12 Forward P/B
1.6, 4 . 2015
,
. DRAM Seller’s Market
. ,
4 .
12 EPS PER PBR EV/EBITDA ROE
() () () () () (%) () () () (%) (%)
2012 10,162 -227 -199 -159 -233 N/A 1.8 7.6 -1.8 0.0 2013 14,165 3,380 3,075 2,872 4,099 9.0 2.0 4.3 25.2 0.0 2014E 16,261 4,808 4,516 3,624 5,055 23.3 8.7 1.9 3.9 24.3 0.0 2015E 17,428 5,303 5,196 4,153 5,739 13.5 7.7 1.5 3.2 22.1 0.0 2016E 18,139 5,705 5,624 4,495 6,212 8.2 7.1 1.3 2.7 19.4 0.0
: K-IFRS : BS
() (2014/09/19)
KOSPI(9/19) 2,053.82pt 318,414 35,686 72,367 49.1% (14E) 0 60 3,726 60 1,730
52 51,900
52 29,750
Price Trend
SK KOSPI
1. Valuation: Buy, 61,000
SK ‘’ 61,000 . ROE
CoE(Cost of Equity) PBR 12 Forward BPS
. P/B 2.2 3 ROE 21.9%, CoE 9.8%(Risk Free 3%, Beta
1.1, Risk Premium 6%) .
12 Forwad P/B 1.6, 4
. 2015 ,
. DRAM
Seller’s Market .
, 4
. SK
Re-rating .

12M Fwd BPS () 27,547 - Risk Free 3.0
Target P/B () 2.23 - Beta 1.1
Target Price () (*) 61,454 - Risk Premium 6.0
Terminal Growth 0%
: BS
P/B 1.8(06’-14’)
[52] SK P/B Band:
P/B 1.6
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
() 12M Fwd P/B P/B +1std(2.2)
P/B -1std (1.4) Avg P/B (1.8)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
() Hynix Stock Price
36
2. Investment Point: 2015
SK 2014 2015
. 2015
. 2013 DRAM ,
.
2015 Tight . DRAM
. 2015
Global DRAM 290(+26%YoY, 2Gb Eq), 315(+30%YoY, 2Gb Eq.)
. DRAM 2015 SK
DRAM 1 . SK 2015
17.4(+7.2%YoY), 5.3(+10.3%YoY) .
2014 DRAM Capex/Sales Ratio() 18%
, .
. 2015
DRAM .
[53] 2015 DRAM [54] 2015 NAND Tight
94%
93%
93%
(2Gb Eq.
(16Gb Eq.

: BS : BS
[55] 2014 18% [56] SK DRAM 1
39% 36%
19% 18%
() DRAM Capex(LHS)
()() NAND (LHS)
37
ECONOMY
[16] SK (: , %)
3,743 3,923 4,179 4,417 4,279 4,303 4,387 4,458 14,165 16,261 17,428
DRAM 2,994 3,060 3,172 3,357 3,296 3,290 3,323 3,423 10,256 12,583 13,332
NAND 619 750 887 944 871 896 941 916 3,391 3,200 3,623
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
DRAM 80% 78% 76% 76% 77% 76% 76% 77% 72% 77% 76%
NAND 17% 19% 21% 21% 20% 21% 21% 21% 24% 20% 21%
1,057 1,084 1,278 1,389 1,240 1,315 1,356 1,392 3,380 4,808 5,303
DRAM 1,052 1,133 1,255 1,334 1,228 1,286 1,303 1,336 2,770 4,774 5,154
NAND -21 -11 17 48 11 25 49 52 509 34 136
28.2% 27.6% 30.6% 31.4% 29.0% 30.6% 30.9% 31.2% 23.9% 29.6% 30.4%
DRAM 28.1% 28.9% 30.0% 30.2% 28.7% 29.9% 29.7% 30.0% 19.6% 29.4% 29.6%
NAND -0.6% -0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 3.6% 0.2% 0.8%
802 674 1,008 1,143 940 1,020 1,074 1,123 2,873 3,626 4,157
21% 17% 24% 26% 22% 24% 24% 25% 20% 22% 24%
G/R(QoQ, YoY)
11.1% 4.8% 6.5% 5.7% -3.1% 0.6% 1.9% 1.6% 39.4% 14.8% 7.2%
DRAM 21.7% 2.2% 3.7% 5.8% -1.8% -0.2% 1.0% 3.0% 45.7% 22.7% 6.0%
NAND -19.5% 21.2% 18.3% 6.4% -7.8% 2.9% 5.1% -2.7% 34.3% -5.6% 13.2%
34.7% 2.5% 17.9% 8.6% -10.7% 6.1% 3.1% 2.7% 42.3% 10.3%
DRAM 49.7% 7.6% 10.8% 6.3% -8.0% 4.7% 1.3% 2.5% 72.3% 8.0%
NAND 178.4% -78.2% 137.6% 94.2% 6.9% -93.4% 303.8%
1.7% -16.0% 49.6% 13.3% -17.8% 8.5% 5.3% 4.6% 26.2% 14.6%
: SK, BS
[17] SK Key Assumption
DRAM (1Gb Eq.) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E 2013 2014E 2015E
DRAM () 2,781 3,122 3,278 3,605 3,685 3,839 4,039 4,289 9,923 12,785 15,853
% Change 20% 12% 5% 10% 2% 4% 5% 6% 36% 29% 24%
DRAM ASP ($) 1.01 0.95 0.94 0.90 0.87 0.83 0.80 0.77 0.94 0.95 0.82
% Change 0% -5% -1% -5% -3% -4% -4% -3% 10% 0% -14%
NAND (16Gb Eq.) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E 2013 2014E 2015E
NAND () 504 778 992 1,121 1,132 1,245 1,387 1,444 2,200 3,395 5,208
% Change -8% 54% 27% 13% 1% 10% 11% 4% 45% 54% 53%
NAND ASP ($) 1.15 0.94 0.87 0.81 0.75 0.70 0.66 0.62 1.40 0.91 0.68
% Change -14% -19% -7% -7% -8% -6% -6% -6% -5% -35% -26%
: SK, BS
SK (000660)

() -497 -1,029 0 0 0
() -275 -4 0 0 0
() -3,737 -3,190 -4,127 -4,600 -5,400
() -158 -301 -188 -100 -160
FCF -1,561 3,166 1,840 3,043 2,631
1,917 -1,500 -996 -120 -170
() 396 -1,364 -803 -20 -70
(-) 0 0 0 0 0
() 0 0 0 0 0
-585 -27 293 2,815 2,099
1,244 658 632 925 3,740
658 632 925 3,740 5,839

PBR () 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.3
PSR () 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8
PCR () 5.4 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.3
EV/ EBITDA () 7.6 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.7
(%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EPS () -233 4,099 5,055 5,739 6,212
BPS () 14,032 18,399 23,158 28,897 35,109
SPS () 14,904 20,212 22,679 24,082 25,065
CFPS () 4,727 9,115 11,536 12,283 13,274
DPS () 0 0 0 0 0
ROA (%) -0.9 14.6 16.4 16.3 15.2
ROE (%) -1.8 25.2 24.3 22.1 19.4
ROIC (%) -1.3 21.0 24.0 24.0 23.6
(%) -2.2 23.9 29.6 30.4 31.5
(%) -1.6 20.3 22.3 23.9 24.8
EBITDA (%) 29.3 45.6 50.5 51.5 53.6
(%) 91.5 59.2 40.0 31.2 24.9
(%) 48.3 12.4 -1.3 -15.2 -22.2
(%) 119.6 216.1 229.2 326.5 436.4
() -0.7 13.2 25.7 35.3 39.7
(005930) ()
Two-Track Bottom Out?
Two-Track .
10 .
S/Note .
30 , Target , Emerging Market.
S ,
.
. .

. Google 6,399( 11)
Andorid One . Emerging Android One
. Emerging
.
2015 Seller ()
, Mobile DRAM iPhone6 .
Buyer’s Market (DRAM ) ,
Seller’s Market . DRAM
Mobile DRAM 40% , Global Mobile DRAM
43% . 2015
Seller .
P/B Band
145 . 2014
.
.

. 12M Fwd P/B 1.1
Band .
12 EPS PER PBR EV/EBITDA ROE
() () () () () (%) () () () (%) (%)
2012 201,104 29,049 29,915 23,185 136,278 73.2 9.3 1.8 3.7 21.6 0.5 2013 228,693 36,785 38,364 29,821 175,282 28.6 8.2 1.7 3.1 22.8 1.0 2014E 207,313 26,775 30,075 23,714 139,388 -20.5 8.7 1.2 2.7 15.3 1.5 2015E 208,147 24,070 29,231 23,112 135,849 -2.5 8.9 1.1 2.6 13.1 1.7 2016E 236,164 26,255 31,473 24,884 146,260 7.7 8.3 1.0 2.1 12.6 2.1
: K-IFRS : BS
() (2014/09/19)
KOSPI(9/19) 2,053.82pt 1,782,322 8,975 14,730 51.6% (14E) 18,000 60 230 60 2,946
52 1,500,000
52 1,189,000
Price Trend

KOSPI
40
[57] ASP:
$100 .
2015 ASP $133
[58] ASP:

2015 ASP $211
$281 $284
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
High($191≥) Mid($100-$190) Low(<$100) ASP(RHS)
$277 $276
High($191≥) Mid($100-$190) Low(<$100) ASP(RHS)
: SA, BS : BS
[18]
Galaxy Star Pro Galaxy S Duos 2 Titanium S5 Plus Unite 2 A106 Android One
Karbonn Micromax Micromax, Karbonn
() 4.0 4.0 5.0 4.7 4.5
480x800 480x800 540x960 480x800 480x854
233 233 220 199 218
RAM(GB) 512MB 768MB 1GB 1GB 1GB
CPU 1GHz Dual-core 1.2GHz Quad-core1.3GHz Quad-core1.3GHz Quad-core 1.3GHz
2013 10 2013 11 2013 12 2014 5 2014 9
($) $90 $135 $130 $130 $105
: , BS
[59] Mobile DRAM 40% [60] Global Mobile DRAM 40%
38% 37%
21%21%
29% 30%
1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14E
Consumer Graphic PC Server Mobile
42% 41%
26% 27%
28% 29%
1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14E
Nanya Micron Elpida SK
: 2Gb Eq. : BS : 2Gb Eq. : BS
41
ECONOMY
[19] (: , %)
53,680 52,353 49,848 51,429 48,465 51,775 54,426 56,918 228,693 207,313 211,585
1. 9,390 9,780 9,445 9,517 10,403 11,063 11,624 12,048 37,440 38,132 45,138
2. 6,100 6,330 6,443 6,686 6,384 6,710 7,222 7,668 29,840 25,559 27,984
3.IM 32,440 28,450 28,040 27,954 25,624 27,089 27,727 26,973 138,820 116,885 107,414
4.CE 11,320 13,000 12,080 13,628 12,043 13,313 14,580 17,264 50,340 50,029 57,200
8,490 7,187 5,667 5,430 6,042 6,783 7,023 6,951 36,785 26,775 26,799
1. 1,950 1,860 1,909 1,679 2,396 2,493 2,662 2,616 6,880 7,398 10,168
2. -80 220 -89 166 126 178 349 350 2,980 217 1,003
3.IM 6,430 4,420 3,300 2,982 3,160 3,617 3,470 3,327 24,960 17,132 13,574
4.CE 190 770 547 603 360 495 542 658 1,670 2,110 2,054
15.8% 13.7% 11.4% 10.6% 12.5% 13.1% 12.9% 12.2% 16.1% 12.9% 12.7%
1. 3.6% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% 4.6% 3.0% 3.6% 4.8%
2. -0.1% 0.4% -0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.5%
3.IM 12.0% 8.4% 6.6% 5.8% 6.5% 7.0% 6.4% 5.8% 10.9% 8.3% 6.4%
4.CE 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0%
: , BS
[20] Key Assumption
DRAM (1Gb Eq. ) 3,936 4,723 5,171 5,378 5,747 6,200 6,555 6,848 12,940 19,208 25,350
% Change 3% 20% 10% 4% 7% 8% 6% 4% 23% 48% 32%
DRAM ASP (1Gb Eq, $) 0.92 0.89 0.89 0.87 0.82 0.78 0.74 0.71 0.96 0.89 0.76
% Change -7% -3% -1% -2% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% -7% -14%
NAND (16Gb Eq. ) 2,254 2,773 3,078 3,386 3,633 3,891 4,179 4,538 7,736 11,491 16,241
% Change 6% 23% 11% 10% 7% 7% 7% 9% 59% 49% 41%
NAND ASP (16Gb Eq, $) 1.01 0.90 0.83 0.79 0.75 0.71 0.68 0.64 1.20 0.87 0.69
% Change -9% -11% -8% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5% -26% -28% -20%
() 88.2 73.9 79.8 82.2 79.8 82.1 89.5 87.7 299.8 324.1 339.2
% Change 6% -16% 8% 3% -3% 3% 9% -2% 46% 8% 5%
ASP($) 260 291 268 252 239 251 234 227 313 267 237
% Change -4% 12% -8% -6% -5% 5% -7% -3% -2% -15% -11%
Tablet PC () 13.0 8.2 9.0 9.9 9.1 9.6 10.4 11.3 42.5 40.1 40.4
% Change -10% -37% 10% 10% -8% 5% 9% 8% 158% -6% 1%
Tablet PC ASP($) 286 277 250 237 232 228 223 219 332 264 225
% Change -2% -3% -10% -5% -2% -2% -2% -2% -25% -20% -15%
() 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.0 3.1 4.9
% Change -50% 36% 41% 5% -5% 12% 35% 2% 215% 57%
ASP($) 287 284 276 273 273 266 259 253 290 278 262
% Change -1% -1% -3% -1% 0% -3% -2% -3% -4% -6%
TFT LCD Areal (000 ) 7,748 8,411 8,789 8,921 8,466 8,864 9,352 9,754 29,000 33,869 36,435
% Change 4% 9% 4% 1% -5% 5% 5% 4% -6% 17% 8%
TFT LCD Areal ASP ($/) 470 438 424 418 408 390 397 380 539 437 393
% Change -8% -7% -3% -1% -3% -4% 2% -4% -18% -19% -10%
OLED () 47 60 54 56 59 63 69 76 206 217 267
% Change 2% 27% -10% 5% 5% 6% 10% 10% 48% 5% 23%
OLED ASP ($/Unit) 47 50 47 48 46 49 48 49 49 46 48
% Change -6% 7% -5% 1% -3% 5% -2% 3% 2% -6% 4%
LCD TV() 11.8 12.2 12.5 14.7 12.7 13.2 15.5 20.4 48.6 51.2 61.8
% Change -27% 3% 2% 18% -14% 4% 17% 32% -1% 5% 21%
TV ASP($) 538 579 576 569 553 610 607 598 546 566 594
% Change 1% 7% 0% -1% -3% 10% 0% -1% -11% 4% 5%
: , BS
[61] P/B Band: Trailing P/B 1.26
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
() SEC Share Price 1.2
1.4 1.8
2.2 2.5
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
() SEC Share Price 7.0
8.0 10.0
15.0 18.0
P/E=7.15
(005930)

(31,322)(44,747) (19,384) (27,005) (30,996)
() (764) 160 160 160 160
() (238) (181) 0 0 0
() (22,321)(22,780) (22,690) (23,819) (26,543)
() (589) (930) (725) (748) (801)
FCF 6,651 1,960 18,465 13,557 17,875
(1,865) (4,137) (4,115) (4,381) (5,175)
() 539 (3,203) (676) (601) (541)
(-) (1,265) (1,250) (1,720) (1,890) (2,317)
() 88 34 0 0 0
4,100 (2,507) 13,762 6,589 9,961
14,692 18,791 16,285 30,047 36,636
18,791 16,285 30,047 36,636 46,597

PER () 9.3 8.2 8.7 8.9 8.3
PBR () 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.0
PSR () 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
PCR () 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.0
EV/ EBITDA () 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.1
(%) 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.1
EPS () 136,278 175,282 139,388 135,849 146,260
BPS () 688,251 848,999 975,2061,093,6091,220,692
SPS () 1,182,0391,344,2011,218,5361,223,4371,388,115
ROA (%) 14.2 15.4 10.8 9.7 9.7
ROE (%) 21.6 22.8 15.3 13.1 12.6
ROIC (%) 27.1 30.8 21.7 18.4 18.8
(%) 14.4 16.1 12.9 11.6 11.1
(%) 11.9 13.3 11.6 11.2 10.7
EBITDA (%) 22.2 23.3 20.7 20.1 19.5
(%) 49.1 42.7 35.0 31.4 30.2
(%) (18.6) (28.9) (34.7) (35.8) (38.1)
(%) 185.9 215.8 267.7 290.9 297.8
() 48.5 72.2 63.2 60.4 69.7
45
ECONOMY
[21] (: , %)
64.4 71.1 78.9 76.8 76.4 82.4 84.8 81.7 278.1 291.2 325.2
55.0 64.1 71.0 69.0 68.8 74.4 76.2 72.7 236.7 259.1 292.1
41.8 41.6 44.7 42.8 41.3 43.2 43.4 40.0 169.9 171.0 167.8
-Embedded 14.2 8.4 11.8 12.7 12.3 14.1 14.8 14.1 72.9 47.1 55.3
13.2 22.4 26.3 26.2 27.5 31.3 32.8 32.7 66.8 88.1 124.2
-Flip Chip 5.4 10.5 11.5 11.0 11.5 12.7 13.0 12.4 1.9 38.4 49.6
9.1 7.0 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.9 8.5 8.9 40.5 31.5 32.8
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 89% 85% 89% 90%
76% 65% 63% 62% 60% 58% 57% 55% 72% 66% 57%
-Embedded 34% 20% 26% 30% 30% 33% 34% 35% 43% 28% 33%
24% 35% 37% 38% 40% 42% 43% 45% 28% 34% 43%
-Flip Chip 41% 47% 44% 42% 42% 40% 40% 38% 3% 44% 40%
14% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 15% 11% 10%
3.1 7.1 8.3 7.4 7.3 9.1 9.5 8.6 -5.5 26.0 34.4
4.8% 10.0% 10.5% 9.7% 9.5% 11.0% 11.2% 10.5% -2.0% 8.9% 10.6%
1.7 3.2 5.5 5.2 5.4 7.2 7.8 7.3 -19.3 15.6 27.6
3% 4% 7% 7% 7% 9% 9% 9% -7% 5% 8%
G/R(QoQ, YoY)
-21% 10% 11% -3% 0% 8% 3% -4% 8% 5% 12%
-19% 16% 11% -3% 0% 8% 2% -5% -8% 9% 13%
-12% 0% 7% -4% -4% 5% 1% -8% -9% 1% -2%
-Embedded -56% -41% 41% 7% -3% 15% 5% -5% 43% -35% 17%
-34% 70% 17% 0% 5% 14% 5% 0% -6% 32% 41%
-Flip Chip 315% 95% 10% -5% 5% 10% 3% -5% - 1951% 29%
-36% -23% 12% -2% -2% 5% 8% 5% 1% -22% 4%
129% 16% -10% -3% 25% 5% -10% 33%
90% 72% -5% 4% 32% 8% -6% 77%
: , BS
[63] 12M Fwd P/B ROE [64] 12M Fwd P/B
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
() 12M Fwd P/B(LHS) ROE(RHS)
P/B=1.1
() 12M Fwd P/B P/B +1std(1.7)
P/B -1std (0.9) Avg P/B (1.3)
: BS : BS
46
2015 ‘’
[22] Global Peer Valuation : Amkor .
OPM(%) ROE(%) P/B() P/E() EPS Growth
2013 -2.0 -15.8 1.0 -
() 2014E 8.9 12.7 1.3 11.1
2015E 10.6 19.0 1.1 6.4 73.9
STS 2013 -2.4 -29.7 1.0 -
() 2014E NA NA NA NA NA
2015E NA NA NA NA NA
2013 4.1 4.9 1.0 20.1 -43.2
() 2014E NA NA NA NA NA
2015E NA NA NA NA NA
ASE 2013 10.0 13.6 1.7 13.3 19.4
() 2014E 10.7 15.8 2.2 14.0 27.3
2015E 10.4 17.1 2.0 12.3 14.6
Amkor Tech. 2013 7.9 13.6 1.4 10.1 123.1
() 2014E 9.5 15.7 1.8 12.3 29.7
2015E 10.6 13.4 1.5 9.9 25.0
: Bloomberg, BS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
( 13/Jan) () ()
(067310)

() -2.5 7.2 -3.2 0.0 0.0
() -7.5 -0.3 -3.3 0.0 0.0
() -53.1 -45.6 -28.5 -18.0 -23.0
() -0.9 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 0.0
FCF -17.0 -42.2 -25.6 41.3 23.9
28.2 30.6 28.8 -18.4 2.4
() -39.8 31.0 21.9 -48.0 7.5
(-) -3.3 -2.1 0.0 0.0 -2.2
() 11.3 4.8 0.0 1.1 0.0
3.4 -2.8 0.2 21.3 25.6
3.0 6.4 3.6 3.8 25.1
6.4 3.6 3.8 25.1 50.6
: K-IFRS

PER () 24.5 -! -! 11.3 6.5
PBR () 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.1
PSR () 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6
PCR () 4.5 5.3 3.2 3.2 2.8
EV/ EBITDA () 7.6 11.9 10.5 6.7 5.5
(%) 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2
EPS () 465 -460 -902 710 1,235
BPS () 7,211 6,411 5,468 6,222 7,361
SPS () 15,632 11,936 12,432 13,015 14,539
CFPS () 2,532 1,405 1,674 2,477 2,877
DPS () 100 0 0 100 100
ROA (%) 2.9 -3.2 -5.7 4.2 7.0
ROE (%) 7.1 -6.9 -15.8 12.7 19.0
ROIC (%) 6.2 -2.4 -2.2 6.5 9.1
(%) 4.5 -2.8 -2.0 8.9 10.6
(%) 3.0 -3.9 -6.9 5.4 8.5
EBITDA (%) 14.9 9.9 11.3 18.3 18.7
(%) 103.7 124.4 193.1 168.9 148.2
(%) 65.3 101.2 159.4 118.4 87.5
(%) 60.4 69.7 51.6 47.9 62.9
() 1.7 -1.1 -0.6 2.9 3.8
48

DPT - DPT (CVD) → (Exposure) → (Etching) ,
(Double Patterning Tech) - 40nm
QPT - QPT DPT ,
(Quadruple Patterning Tech) -
- 20nm
EUV - Lithography(, ))
(Extreme Ultra Violet) G-Line(436nm) → I-Line(365nm) → KrF(243nm) → ArF(193nm) → EUV(13.5nm)
- ArF → DRAM 20nm / NAND 10nm
- 10nm EUV
- EUV Step
3D NAND - 3 NAND
( Vertical NAND) - 2D NAND
-
TSV - 2 DRAM , .
(Through Silicon Via) - . .
SoC(System on Chip) -
SiP(System in Package) -

ReRAM -ReRAM (Filament)
(Resistive RAM,
) - (Filament)
- ''
-ReRAM Cell 1 Transistor + 1 Resistor
PRAM -PRAM
(Phase-change RAM, -PRAM (Non-Crystal, ) (Cystal, )
) - →
- ,
-( ) ,
-PRAM Cell 1 Diode + 1 Resistor
STT-MRAM -STT-MRAM Magnetic()
(Spin TransferTorque- -Capacitor MTJ(, Magnetic Tunnel Junction) Magnetic()
Magnetic RAM, -MTJ Magnetic
) - Magnetic
- Magnetic
-STT-MRAM Cell 1 Transistor + 1 MTJ(Magnetic Tunnel Junction)
: BS
2015 ‘’
(6)
SK 2014/09/22 () 61,000
() SK () ()
(
(6)
2014/07/14 () 1,700,000
() () ()
(
( 6 ) : 6 (Buy) +10% , (Hold) -10 ~ +10%, (Sell) -10% : 6 (Overweight), (Neutral), (Underweight)
, . 1% , 1 (DR, CB, IPO ) . , . , . . , , .
1577-2601 www.bsfn.co.kr <> 25-12 16 (:150-977) 02-3215-1500 / Fax. 02-786-2998 <> 1 259-4 3,4 (:614-709) 051-669-8000 / Fax. 051-669-8009 <> 1 693-10 1 (:617-839) 051-329-4300 / Fax. 051-329-4399 < PB> 1407 2 (:612-020) 051-780-1000 / Fax. 051-780-1010
1_140922
2_140922_SK(1)
2_140922_SK(35-38)
3_140922_(1)
3_140922_(40-43)
4_140922_(1)
4_140922_(2)

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