indorama polymers “irp” q1, 2006 analyst meeting 15 may 2006 the stock exchange of thailand...
TRANSCRIPT
Indorama Polymers “IRP”
Q1, 2006 Analyst Meeting
15 May 2006
The Stock Exchange of Thailand
DISCLAIMER: This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any IRP Shares. Past performance is no guide to future performance and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser. For the convenience of the interested investors the management is presenting the financial data in US Dollar also. However, the translation method does not confirm with GAAP and is based on the method developed by the management which will be followed consistently in future.
AgendaAgenda
Fundamentals
Q1, 2006 Financial Update
Projects in Progress
Focus: Lithuania
Outlook
Guiding PhilosophyGuiding Philosophy
VISION
To be one of the leading global producer with key
focus on people and processes thus making INDORAMA one of the most admired companies in the world
MISSION
Continuously upgrade quality of products and services
through people involvement and world class
processes to attain customer delight thus becoming a
preferred supplier and institutionalise people learning
as a key factor for business growth
1
Major ShareholdersMajor Shareholders
2
Major Sharholders Country Shares Percent
1 Beacon Global Limited Mauritius 537,198,080 38.9%2 Indorama Holdings Limited BVI 365,999,970 26.5%3 Indorama Synthetics (India) Limited India 90,480,000 6.5%4 DEG Germany 68,519,790 5.0%5 Somers (U.K.) Ltd. British 62,706,300 4.5%6 Credit Agricole Investor Services Bank Luxembourg Luxemburg 23,500,000 1.7%7 Thai NVDR Ltd. Thai 22,477,200 1.6%8 Citibank Nominees Singapore PTE Ltd-Citibank LDN RE Fund 202 Singaporean 18,997,600 1.4%9 Government Saving Bank Thailand 18,400,000 1.3%
10 Bangkok Bank Pcl. Thailand 15,000,000 1.1%11 PICTET & CIE Switzerland 13,142,400 1.0%12 Mr. Kamlesh Chandumal Daswani India 11,560,000 0.8%13 Ayudhaya Equity Fund Thailand 10,596,800 0.8%14 Mrs. Wilai Panwongkloam Thailand 8,723,100 0.6%15 Raffles Nominees (PTE) Ltd. Singapore 8,541,900 0.6%
1,267,301,240 91.7%Note: As on March 29, 2006, book closure for annual general meeting of shareholders
APL Group, the main promoters holdings are held Beacon Globaland Indorama Holding
IRP, total issued and paid-up capital Baht 1,382 million
Group StructureGroup Structure
^Indorama Polymers Public Company Limited “IRP”
PET Polymers: 126,000 tpa
51% 99.9% 100%
^ Expanded capacity in December, 2006. Now 90,000 tpa ^^ Expanded capacity in December, 2006. Now 116,000 tpa^^^Lithuania plant commissioning expected in Mid-2006
3
* Joint venture with Serm Suk Pcl which holds 40%and DEG holds 9%
*Petform (Thailand) Limited“PTF”
Preforms, Bottles and Closures
Asia Pet (Thailand) Limited“APT”
Amorphous PET Polymers: 110,000 tpa
^^StarPet Inc., USA“SPT”
PET Polymers: 200,000 tpa
^^^UAB Orion Global Pet, Lithuania “OPT”
PET Polymers: 198,000 tpa
20% 60% 20%
Production ProcessProduction Process
PTA
MEG
IPA
CP Plant SSP Plant
Bottle Blowing
Closures
Asia PetAsia Pet PetformPetformIRPIRP
StarPet / Orion Global PetStarPet / Orion Global Pet
AmorphousPET
PET Polymers
*0.84
*0.35
*0.02
*Tons of Input for 1 ton of PET polymers
4
Preforms
IRP Capacity 4% of Global Demand in 2007IRP Capacity 4% of Global Demand in 2007
IRP Capacity (Tons)
90,000 90,000126,000
80,000116,000
200,000-
-
198,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
2003 2005 2007P
To
ns
Asia North America Europe
21%
154%170,000
206,000
524,000
5
Demand Growth: New ApplicationsDemand Growth: New Applications
Carbonated Soft Drinks
Ketchup and Sauces Liquor / Wine BEERMilk
Iced Tea Energy Drinks Juices
Lubricating OilPaints FoodToiletries & Cosmetics
Water
6
PET: Demand Growth and Per CapitaPET: Demand Growth and Per Capita
World PET Demand
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
P
'00
0 t
py
Demand growing by 1 million tons per annum
World per capita consumption is 1.7 kilos per annum
Higher per capita consumption in North America (8 kilos) and West
Europe (5 kilos), still growing at 7-8% per annum
Global demand of 12.3 million tons, growing at 8-10% p.a.
Source: Tecnon
Per Capita PET Consumption
012345678
NorthAmerica
East Asia EastEurope
CIS/Russia MiddleEast
South EastAsia
Kg
pe
r p
ers
on
Global
7
PET Polymers demand growth in all regions PET Polymers demand growth in all regions
Source: Tecnon
Regional Demand for PET Polymers
2,833 3,079 3,335 3,592
3,6283,918
4,2254,508
3,535
3,807
4,084
4,3611,420
1,527
1,637
1,747
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
2005E 2006P 2007P 2008P
'000
To
ns
Asia North America Europe ROW
8
11,416
12,331
13,281
14,208
PET: Demand distributionPET: Demand distribution
Source: Tecnon
• CSD demand growth of 6-7%• Water demand growth of 10-12%• Others include beverages and food• Sheet include food and non-food• Beer, developing stage, high growth potential
Marketshare of Global Packaging Materials in 2005
Plastics39%
Paper & Boards
29%
Metal19%
Glass8%
Others5%
Consumption Pattern in PET 2006P
CSD37%
Water26%
Beer2%
Sheet6%
Others29%
Source: PIRA International
• Convenience is the key to growth of packaging materials• Consumers prefer usability or occasion specific packaging• Priority for product safety and functionality
9
Cans Vs PET, New EquationsCans Vs PET, New Equations
During past four years, Aluminum prices increased from 1400 to 2400 $/ton or by 71% while PET prices increased from 830 to 1,150 $/ton or by 38%
Aluminum prices are high due to energy costs and tight demand supply
In 2007,US Aluminum price will further increase when new contracts are negotiated
360 ml bottles replacing Cans
CSD Costs US c/Lit
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
PE
T 2
Lit
PE
T 6
00 m
l
PE
T 5
00 m
l 6p
k
PE
T 3
60 m
l 8p
k
Al C
an 3
60 m
l6
pk
Al C
an 3
60 m
l12
pk
Al c
an 3
60 m
l24
pk
US
ce
nt/
Lit
.
Container Closure, Label
Sec Packing Filling
Source: Industry Data
10
Industry AttractivenessIndustry Attractiveness
Global demand 12.3 million tons projected for 2006 and growth at 8-10% per
annum
New applications fuelling high growth rates, 2-3 times global GDP growth,
i.e. energy drinks, flavored water, iced tea and others
Market movements in packaging reflect preferred packaging material
PET preferred over glass, PVC and other polymers
Better properties than other packaging materials
Consumers prefer convenience of PET for purity, light weight and
resealable
Beverage producers prefer PET for being cost effective
11
Source: Industry prices
PET prices move in tandem with raw materialsPET prices move in tandem with raw materials
12
PET Chain Margin Distribution
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Pri
ces,
$/m
t
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Cru
de,
$/b
bl
PET
C2/MEG
PTA
pX
Naphtha
Crude
Histrorical, Wide PET spreads on lower RM costs
Narrow PET spreads on rising RM costs
Crude impact marginal on PET spreadsCrude impact marginal on PET spreads
Crude price increase absorbed in petrochemical chain
Petrochemical prices increased
Petrochemical spreads were higher on tight supply, low investments
Post-SE Asian crisis in 1997-98
Additional supply in year 2005-6 result in decline in spreads
PET prices move in line with raw material prices
Able to pass rising costs in past 2 years
Historically, PET spreads widen on lower raw material costs
Reversing petrochemical cycle will be beneficial (refer slide 12)
13
Global Capacity & Demand ('000 Tons)
0
500010000
15000
20000
2500030000
35000
40000
4500050000
55000
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
Demand Capacity
North America Capacity & Demand ('000 Tons)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
Demand Capacity
Source: CMAI
Global Additions of Capacity & Demand ('000 Tons)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
Demand Increase Capacity Addition
PTA: Capacity additions outstrip demand increasePTA: Capacity additions outstrip demand increase
14
Asia Capacity & Demand ('000 Tons)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
Demand Capacity
Note: Asia includes Middle East
MEG: Surplus AvailabilityMEG: Surplus Availability
Global Capacity & Demand ('000 Tons)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
Demand Capacity
North America Capacity & Demand ('000 Tons)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
Demand Supply
Source: CMAI
Global Additions of Capacity & Demand ('000 Tons)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
Demand Increase Capacity Addition
15
Asia Capacity & Demand ('000 Tons)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E
Demand Supply
Note: Asia includes Middle East
AgendaAgenda
Fundamentals
Q1, 2006 Financial Update
Projects in Progress
Focus: Lithuania
Outlook
Surge: Profits 30% YoYSurge: Profits 30% YoY
16
(in US$)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Q1' 04 Q2' 04 Q3' 04 Q4' 04 Q1' 05 Q2' 05 Q3' 05 Q4'05 Q1' 06
US
$ '0
00
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
US
$
Revenue Normalized Net Profit
Financial Performance: ConsolidatedFinancial Performance: Consolidated
17
Q1, 2006 Q1, 2005 Q1, 2005 Q1, 200650,127 48,452 Production Quantity (Tons) 48,452 50,127
2,706,756 2,852,391 Total Revenue ('000) 73,867 68,834
289,425 272,546 EBITDA ('000) 6,471 7,659
218,912 147,613 Net Profit ('000) 4,122 5,450 48% Growth 32%
202,940 165,910 Normalized Net profit ('000) 4,202 5,450 22% Growth 30%
4,049 3,782 Normalized Net Profit per Ton 87 109 7% Growth 25%
5,774 5,625 EBITDA per Ton 134 153 3% Growth 14%
* Total Revenue for Q1, 2005 includes trading sales of 7,081 tons or Baht 393 million
Consolidated (Baht) Consolidated (US$)
(’000)
Note: Average Exchange Rate 38.62 39.32
Higher sales in premium marketsHigher sales in premium markets
Note: Sales quantities are indicated by %
Geographical Sales Q1, 2005
ROW
Europe
Thailand Region
North America
Geographical Sales Q1, 2006
ROW
Europe
Thailand Region
North America
47%
8%18%
27% 19%
66%9%
6%
Sales Realisation by Region
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
North America Thailand Europe ROW
Bah
t p
er t
on
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Ble
nd
ed S
pre
ad, $
/mt
B/t
$/mt
Spread - $229/ton
Sales Realisation by Region
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
North America Thailand Europe ROW
Bah
t p
er t
on
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Ble
nd
ed S
pre
ad, $
/mt
B/t
$/mt
Spread - $232/ton
18
Surge: Profits 26% YoYSurge: Profits 26% YoY
19
(in Baht)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Q1' 05 Q2' 05 Q3' 05 Q4'05 Q1' 06
Ba
ht'
00
0
-
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
180,000
210,000
240,000
270,000
300,000
Ba
ht'
00
0
Revenue Normalized Net Profit
Post-IPO, Higher Returns to ShareholdersPost-IPO, Higher Returns to Shareholders
1.12
1.48
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
*Q1 2005 Q1 2006
Annualized EPS (cents)
32%
*Q1 2005 and Q1, 2006 based on post-IPO issued and paid-up capital of Baht 1,382,197,870
In UScents
0.43
0.64
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
*Q1 2005 Q1 2006
Annualized EPS (Baht)
In Baht
49%
20
19.50%18.70%
20.10%
23.42%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
28.0%
2005 31-Mar-06
Return on Capital Employed (excl. OPT)
Return on Equity
Key ratiosKey ratios
1.29
1.19
0.67
0.75
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
2005 31-Mar-06
Current ratio Net Debt-Equity ratio
(in Baht)
Lower leverage
21
On higher base of capital employed and equity
Financial PositionFinancial Position
Includes Baht 1,693 million (Euro 35.8 million) debt of Orion Global Pet
22
(Baht’ 000)Balance Sheet as on 31-Dec-05 31-Mar-06Total Current Assets 3,549,648 3,449,688 Total Assets 10,114,561 10,255,880 Total Current Liabilities 2,765,726 2,897,819 Total Liabilities 5,845,996 5,824,175 Net Interest bearing Debt 3,182,373 2,959,049 Issued and paid-up Capital 1,382,198 1,382,198 Total Shareholders Equity 4,268,565 4,431,705
Current Ratio 1.28 1.19 Total Liabilities to Equity 1.37 1.31 Net Debt to Equity 0.75 0.67 Book Value per Share 3.09 3.21
Cash flowCash flow
23
(Baht’ 000)2005 Q1' 2006
Net Profit 771,738 218,922 Cashflow before change in working capital 1,127,085 291,246 Change in working capital (105,274) 300,141 Free cashflow before capex 1,021,811 591,387 Capex (2,599,769) (497,164) Free cashflow after capex (1,577,958) 94,223
Proceeds from capital increase 1,151,865 - Repayment of loans (1,441,533) (230,758) Additional loans 1,806,391 342,651 Others (15,411) (4,498) Cashflow from financing 1,501,311 107,395
Net Cashflow (76,647) 201,618 Cash beginning 385,035 308,389 Cash closing 308,389 510,007
Key Ratios: Comparison Key Ratios: Comparison
24
Q1, 2006 2005 Particulars 2005 Q1, 2006(Baht) (Baht) (USD) (USD)
12.0% 17.0% Return on Capital Employed 16.7% 12.1%18.7% 19.5% Return on Capital Employed (excl. OPT) 19.1% 18.8%20.1% 23.4% Return on Equity 24.5% 18.6%9.1% 9.5% Return on Assets 9.3% 8.0%1.06 1.37 Assets Turnover (Times) 1.16 1.06
1.19 1.29 Current Ratio 1.28 1.190.80 0.85 Quick Ratio 0.85 0.801.31 1.36 Total Liabilities - Equity 1.31 1.340.78 0.82 Debt - Equity 0.78 0.790.67 0.75 Net Debt-Equity 0.72 0.687.42 6.44 Interest Coverage 6.46 8.06
AgendaAgenda
Fundamentals
Q1, 2006 Financial Update
Projects in Progress
Focus: Lithuania
Outlook
Petform, ThailandPetform, Thailand
Preforms & Closures Expansion and Bottling Project
Preform 4th machine and Closure 3rd machine installed and started
commercial production in Q1, 2006
In April, 2006, Bottle blowing project completed and started commercial
production
Capital expenditure of Baht 248 m. upto end of Q1, 2006 balance around Baht
70 million to be capitalized in Q2, 2006
Loan draw down of Baht 260 m. upto Q1, 2006 (Sanctioned Baht 260 m.)
Interest during construction period to be capitalized and charged to P&L from
Q1, 2006
25
Orion Global Pet, LithuaniaOrion Global Pet, Lithuania
PET Polymers Greenfield Project
Ongoing work at site, installation of plant & equipment, storage facility and
utilities
Capital expenditure of Euro 66.8 m. upto end of Q1, 2006
Loan draw down of Euro 35.8 m. upto end of Q1, 2006 (Sanctioned Euro 57.5
m.)
Interest during construction period to be capitalized and charged to P&L from
Q3, 2006
Commissioning in Mid-2006
30
StarPet Inc., USAStarPet Inc., USA
PET Polymers Expansion Project
Site work and railway siding work in progress
Plant and equipment supply agreements signed
First lot of plant and equipment to arrive in May, 2006 at site
Capital expenditure of around US$ 4 m. upto end of Q1, 2006
Loan draw down US$ 1.2 m. upto end of 2005 (Sanctioned US$ 31 million)
Interest during construction period to be capitalized and charged to P&L from
Q1, 2007
Start-up of commercial operations in January, 2007
36
Indorama Polymers, ThailandIndorama Polymers, Thailand
PET Polymers Expansion Project
Increase capacity of PET Polymers by 36,000 tpa at existing site
Supply agreements signed with plant & equipment suppliers
Proposed capital expenditure of US$ 5 million
Financing with US$ 4 million long term loans and balance from internal cash
Interest during construction period to be capitalized and charged to P&L from
Q1, 2007
Start-up of commercial operations in January, 2007
39
AgendaAgenda
Fundamentals
Q1, 2006 Financial Update
Projects in Progress
Focus: Lithuania
Outlook
Strategically located in the gateway of EU and CIS Strategically located in the gateway of EU and CIS
Lithuania
Lithuania, EU member and recognized as the prime transport center in the region linking the EU with the East, CIS & Russia
40
Growing economy attracting FDI Growing economy attracting FDI
Source: Lithuanian Department of Statistics, www.std.lt
41
Klaipeda: Free economic zone and transport hub Klaipeda: Free economic zone and transport hub
Orion Global PetPlant Location
Klaipeda, a transport and logistics hub with a developed infrastructure
42
Port of Klaipeda - the biggest container port in Baltic States and open for investments
• Klaipeda, a free economic zone with developed infrastructure and tax benefits
• Klaipeda is a big transport hub connecting sea, land and rail routes from East to
West
• Port of Klaipeda has been designated the EU's regional priority port,
linked to all major ports in EU
an ice free port
capacity of more than 30 million tons per year
Source: Klaipeda State Seaport, www.portofklaipeda.lt
43
Europe Continues to be a Net Importer Europe Continues to be a Net Importer
(1,500)(1,250)(1,000)
(750)(500)(250)
-250500750
1,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,5002,7503,0003,2503,5003,7504,0004,2504,5004,750
2003 2004 2005E 2006P 2007P 2008P
'00
0 T
on
s
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Production Demand Utilization Net Trade
Demand outstrips supply, imports to continue but domestic producers atadvantage over imports
Source: Tecnon
44
Demand outstrips Supply…Room to grow Demand outstrips Supply…Room to grow PET producers in Europe market:
• IRP capacity represents 6.3% of the capacity• Total demand around 3.5 million tons and demand growth of 7-8% per annum equivalent to around 250,000 tons per annum
S. No. Producer Plant Locations 2006(Country) (Tons)
1 Advansa UK 165,000 2 CEP Tergal France 75,000 Uneconomic size
3 Elana Poland 129,000 4 Equipolymers Italy and Germany 450,000 350,000 tons in land locked location
5 Indorama Lithuania 198,000 6 Invista Germany 270,000 Land locked location and
majority quantity is DMT based
7 M&G Italy 300,000 8 Neo Group Lithuania 154,000 Capex cost US$ 731 per ton
9 Novapet Spain 240,000 10 Selenis Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain 525,000 High acquisition cost US$ 670/ton
for 175,000 tons capacity
11 SK Euroechem Poland 120,000 12 Voridian Spain, UK, Netherlands 480,000 13 Wellman Netherlands 60,000 Uneconomic size
Total 3,166,000
45
Key highlights Key highlights
• Economies of scale, OPT will have the largest single line plant in Europe
• Low capex cost, around US$ 485 per ton compared to peers
• Low Conversion cost, comparable to Asia of around US$ 80 per ton considering low cost base, a developing economy, and required manpower around 110 persons
• Availability of key raw materials, PTA & MEG, available in Europe and suppliers in Asia and USA have manufacturing facility in Europe
• Demand exceeds supply, marketing will be concentrated in the markets of Greater Europe including CIS & Russia which are supply deficit regions. OPT will substitute imports and capture growing demand through sales to:
Global Convertors, customers of the Group in Asia and USA
Global Brand Beverages, customers of the Group in Asia and USA
Regional Convertors
46
AgendaAgenda
Fundamentals
Q1, 2006 Financial Update
Projects in Progress
Focus: Lithuania
Outlook
Spread * Quantity = ProfitsSpread * Quantity = ProfitsCommitted volume growth upto year 2007...Committed volume growth upto year 2007...
IRP Group PET Polymers Effective Capacity (tpa)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2004 2005 2006 2007
Europe
USA
Asia
Preforms & Closures Capacity (Million pieces)
100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,200
2004 2005 2006
Bottles
Closures
Preforms
PET Polymers:
• Current PET capacity 206,000 tons
• 2007 PET capacity 524,000 tons
Completed:• Forward integration into bottles for 150m. pieces• Capacity increase in preforms by 42% and closures 50% • Expansion in line with growth plans of customers
Growth
154%
More
than
1 Billi
on pieces
47
OutlookOutlook
• PET Polymers demand growth at 8-10%, replacing aluminium and
glass as cost effective and convenience of use
• Asian operating rates to improve with limited new capacity additions
• Raw materials in a long market, increasing supply, and larger volume
purchase to leverage favorable prices
…IRP, Prepared and Enthusiastic
Raw material prices are rising and we expect to pass rising costs to our customers
48
IRP PositioningIRP Positioning
7th largest global PET producer with end-2006 capacity at
524,000 tons
Only PET producer with production facility in Asia, Europe and
North America enabling to capture demand growth in all markets
Regional presence provides ability to service large global
customers at low logistics cost
Large volume purchase of raw materials enable higher volume
discounts thereby increasing spread
High capacity utilization resulting in lower conversion costs
New plants of economic size at lower capex
49