indonesia: emerging economy and power in the 21st … · languange indonesian (bahasa indonesia) as...

INDONESIA: EMERGING ECONOMY AND POWER IN THE

21ST CENTURY’S WORLD ORDER

presentation at the Aarhus University Academic Day 2012 Conference:

“NEW BRICKS ON THE BLOCK – SYMPTOMS OF A FUTURE WORLD SOCIETY?”

Aarhus University, 19 September 2012

Prof. Dr. Bomer Pasaribu Ambassador of the Republic of Indonesia to the Kingdom of

Denmark and the Republic of Lithuania

Copy Right: PROF. DR. (IPB) H. BOMER PASARIBU, SH., SE., MS./2012; [email protected]

* Ambassador of The Republic of Indonesia to The Kingdom of Denmark and to The Republic of Lithuania

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mailto:[email protected]

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62 YEARS INDONESIA-DENMARK BILATERAL RELATION

DENMARK: “KNOWLEDGE>GROWTH>PROSPERITY>WELFARE”

(DENMARK 2020)

INDONESIA:

“DEMOCRACY; HUMAN RIGHTS; ECONOMY ; ECOLOGY; RULE OF LAW TOWARDS KNOWLEDGE BASED ECONOMY”

(MASTER PLAN 2011-2025)




INDONESIA: EMERGING ECONOMY AND POWER IN THE 21ST

CENTURY’S WORLD ORDER

CONTENTS:

I. INTRODUCTION. I.1. INDONESIA AT A GLANCE I.2. INDONESIA: A LESSON LEARNT II. THE DYNAMIC OF INDONESIA II.1. POLITICAL REFORMS & ROLES II.2. COMPOSITION OF THE CURRENT COALITION II.3. PRIORITIES OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT



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CONTENT (CONT.)

III. INDONESIA IN THE GLOBAL &REGIONAL CONTEXT: SUPER-CYCLE III.1. SUPER-CYCLE/KONDRATIEFF WAVE III.2. INDONESIA IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT III.3. INDONESIA IN APEC & G20 IV. INDONESIA AND ASIAN TRIANGLE EMERGING ECONOMIES/POWERS IV.1. INDONESIA AND ASEAN CENTRALITY IV.2. NEW EPICENTERS : ASEAN, CHINA, INDIA



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CONTENT (CONT.)

V. INDONESIA AND THE ESTABLISHED POWERS: UNITED STATES AND EUROPEAN UNION V.1. INDONESIA-UNITED STATES STRATEGIC/COMPREHENSIVE PARTNERSHIP V.2. INDONESIA-EUROPEAN UNION COMPREHENSIVE PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT V.3. INDONESIA AND EU ECONOMIC CRISIS VI. CONCLUSION



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I. INTRODUCTION I.1 INDONESIA AT A GLANCE



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I N D O N E S I A Land Area 1,904,443 sq km

Sea Area 3,116,163 sq km

Total Area 5,020,606 sq km

Coastal Line 81,000 km

Population 245 Million people (4th biggest population)

Main Towns

Jakarta (Capital) Surabaya Bandung Semarang Medan Samarinda Makassar

9,558 2,584 2,393 1,553 2,109 791 1,339 Languange Indonesian (Bahasa Indonesia)

As well as some 7500 other regional languanges and dialects.

Population (‘000)

Jakarta (Capital) East Java West Java Central Java North Sumatera East Kalimantan South Sulawesi

16.3 14.7 14.3 8.5 5.4 6,2 2.3

GDP Share (%)

GDP Size US$ 1 TRILLION (2012)

GDP percapita US$ 4,081 (2012)

Source: various

GDP/Capita (US$ ‘000)

9.9 2.3 - - 2.3 10.0 -

I. INTRODUCTION I.1. INDONESIA AT A GLANCE (CONT.)



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RICH NATURAL RESOURCES most of them are still intact to be processed into higher VA products

NATURAL GAS THERMAL

COAL GEO

THERMAL PALM OIL COCOA TIN NICKEL BAUXITE

FREQUENCY SPECTRUM

Key

Metrics

About 165 TCF of

reserves at production rate ± 3 TCF

pa

World Second largest export

er

Home of 40% of world’s

resources (the

largest in the

world)

>19 mil tons per

year; World’s largest

exporter

At 770 thou

tons/year, world’s

2nd largest

producer

At 65 thou tons/year,

world’s 2nd

largest producer

Own ± 12% of world’s reserves

(4th largest)

World’s 7th

largest reserves; world’s

4th largest

production

700 MHz outside

Java, Potential

arrangement for Java

area

2300-2360 MHz urban nationwide

About 40% is assumed feasible. Up to now, 1.200 MW has been

developed.

Will be at least partially processed

domestically by 2013 (new mining law:

4/2009)

• Abundant resources for gas-based energy and petrochemical industries

• Not including Non- Conventional Gases, from Coal Bed Methane and Coal Gassification

Copy Right: PROF. DR. (IPB) H. BOMER Pasaribu, SH., SE., MS./2012; [email protected]



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MIDDLE CLASS AND DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF

PRODUCTIVE AGE GROUP

Source: BPS, 2011 For more than 30 years the dependability ratio

has been minimum

THE NUMBER OF

INDONESIAN MIDDLE

CLASS FAMILY (WHICH

HAVE CONSUMPTION RATE

OF $5,000 - $15,000 PER

YEAR).

(AS COMPARISON: CHINA

31,7% 46,2%, WHILE

INDIA 14,6% 41,1% IN

2010-2020).

Source: Euromonitor International

Middle class is growing approximately 8 million

per year

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35.7% 2003

56.5% 2010




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1. 1970S-1980S POST OIL BOOM INDONESIA SHIFTED ITS DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC POLICY ISI EOI.

2. EARLY 1990 INDONESIA: EMERGING TIGERS (EAST ASIAN MIRACLES; WORLD BANK 1993).

3. 1997/1998 ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISES.

4. 1998 – 2000 POLITICAL UPHEAVALS & SLOW ECONOMIC RECOVERY.

5. 1998 – 2004 BIG BANG REFORM, 5 PILLARS : DEMOCRACY; HUMAN RIGHTS; ECONOMY ; ECOLOGY; RULE OF LAW

PRIME MOVER: EDUCATION PERMANENT PRIORITY

I. INTRODUCTION (CONT.) I.2. INDONESIA: A LESSON LEARNT



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I. INTRODUCTION (CONT.) I.2. INDONESIA: A LESSON LEARNT (CONT.)

6. 2004 AND 2009 INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED FREE, FAIR AND PEACEFUL DEMOCRATIC PARLIAMENTARY AND DIRECT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.

7. 1999 – PRESENT SYSTEM AND INSTITUTION BUILDING.

8. INDONESIA NOWADAYS FIT INTO THE GLOBAL SHIFT FROM GEO-POLITIC TO GEO-ECONOMY FROM WEST TO EAST GLOBALIZATION SYNERGIZE WITH REGIONALISM.

9. 2008 – PRESENT GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS (WEST)

10. INDONESIA IN ASEAN INTO THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY OF NATIONS EMERGING ECONOMY EMERGING POWER.



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II. DYNAMIC OF INDONESIA II.1. POLITICAL REFORMS AND ROLES

A. 1999 1ST PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION IN THE EARLY REFORM ERA.

B. 2004 2ND PARLIAMENTARY AND 1ST PRESIDENTIAL DIRECT ELECTION DURING REFORM ERA.

LAW ON DE-SENTRALIZATION MASSIVE

DIRECT LOCAL ELECTIONS (300s).

C. 2009 3RD PARLIAMENTARY AND 2ND PRESIDENTIAL DIRECT ELECTION; MASSIVE DIRECT LOCAL ELECTIONS (300s) INDONESIA: “ELECTION CAPITAL OF THE WORLD” (WORLD BANK,2010).



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II. DYNAMIC OF INDONESIA (CONT.) II.1. POLITICAL REFORMS AND ROLES (CONT.)

D. 2007 UNFCCC COP-13 IN BALI UNTIL 2009 UNFCCC CLIMATE CHANGE TROIKA (INDONESIA, POLAND, DENMARK)

E. 2008 STARTING THE G20 SUMMIT (WASHINGTON).

F. 2011 ASEAN CHAIRMANSHIP “ASEAN COMMUNITY IN A GLOBAL COMMUNITY

OF NATIONS”.

G. 2013 NEXT APEC CHAIRMANSHIP.

H. 2014 NEXT GENERAL ELECTION.



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II. DYNAMIC OF INDONESIA II.2. COMPOSITION OF CURRENT COALITION

A. 2009 GENERAL ELECTION RE-ELECTED SUSILO BAMBANG YUDHOYONO (SBY) AS PRESIDENT WITH BOEDIONO (ECONOMIST) AS VICE PRES.

BROUGHT TO POWER A MULTI-PARTY COALITION LED BY DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SBY PARTY).

COALITION IN POWER (59,45%):

1) MIDDLE PARTY : DEMOCRATIC PARTY (PD; 20,85%), GOLKAR PARTY (14,45%), NATIONAL AWAKENING PARTY (PKB; 4,94%)

2) ISLAMIST : PROSPEROUS JUSTICE PARTY (PKS; 7,88%), NATIONAL MANDATE PARTY (PAN; 6,01%), UNITED DEVELOPMENT PARTY (PPP; 5,32%).

OPPOSITION (40,55%):

NATIONALIST/LEFT : INDONESIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY-STRUGGLE (PDIP; 14,03%), GERINDRA PARTY (4,46%), HANURA PARTY (3,77%).



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II. DYNAMIC OF INDONESIA (CONT.) II.2. COMPOSITION OF CURRENT COALITION (CONT.)

B. POLITICAL PARTY SYSTEM IN INDONESIA IN GENERAL IS STILL DOMINATED BY PERSONALITIES RATHER THAN ISSUES, BUT THIS TENDENCY HAS BEEN SLOWLY CHANGING.

C. TRENDS: IN RECENT YEARS THE MIDDLE-NATIONALIST PARTIES HAVE BEEN FAR STRONGER THAN ISLAMIST-ORIENTED PARTIES.



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II. DYNAMIC OF INDONESIA (CONT.) II.3. PRIORITIES OF CURRENT GOVERNMENT

A. DEMOCRATIZATION PROCESS : TRANSITION CONSOLIDATED DEMOCRACY

TRANSLATION INTO SERIES OF POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT STRUCTURAL REFORM ONGOING SYSTEM AND INSTITUTION BUILDING.

B. BIG BANG REFORM SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT BASED ON 5 PILLARS DEMOCRACY; HUMAN RIGHTS; ECONOMY; ECOLOGY; RULE OF LAW.

C. SYNERGISM IN 5 PILLARS “SECURING TRANSITION FROM A MIDDLE CLASS INCOME COUNTRY INTO A DEVELOPED NATION IN 21ST CENTURY” (PRES. SBY)



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II. DYNAMIC OF INDONESIA (CONT.) II.3. PRIORITIES OF CURRENT GOVERNMENT (CONT.)

D. INDONESIA’S AMENDED 1945 CONSTITUTION (chapter XIII/31) HAS MANDATED A MINIMUM 20% OF THE ANNUAL BUDGET BOTH NATIONAL & REGIONAL, TO BE PROVIDED FOR EDUCATION SECTOR

THE ONLY CASE IN THE WORLD.

EDUCATION: PERMANENT/CONSTITUTIONAL PRIORITY.

EDUCATION: PRIME MOVER SUSTAINABILITY OF THE 5 PILLARS INTO HIGHER QUALITY.



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GDP ~ US$ 700 BILLION

WORLD’S 17TH LARGEST

INCOME/CAPITA US$ 3,005

GDP: US$ ~ 1,2 TRILLION

14TH WORLD’S ECONOMIC POWER

INCOME/CAPITA: US$ ~ 4.800

GDP: US$ 3,8 – 4,5 TRILLION

(HIGH INCOME COUNTRY) WORLD’S 12TH

INCOME/CAPITA: 13.000 – 16.100 US$

DEMOCRACY

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECOLOGY

RULE OF LAW

ECONOMY

NATIONAL PROJECTION 2010-2025

Source: Master Plan for Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025;

Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs Republic of Indonesia; 2011 modified by the author; 2012.


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D. 2008-2010 PROJECTION EXERCISE “DEBOTTLENECKING”, ACCELERATION AND EXPANSION OF INDONESIA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 2010-2015

E. 2011 BREAKTHROUGH “MASTER PLAN FOR ACCELERATION AND EXPANSION OF INDONESIA’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (MP) 2011-2025” (INTEGRAL PART OF THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING).



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F. MASTER PLAN 2011-2025:

1. ACCELERATE AND EXPAND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN SIX INDONESIAN ECONOMIC CORRIDORS;

2. STRENGTHENING NATIONAL CONNECTIVITY;

3. STRENGTHENING HUMAN RESOURCE AND NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CAPABILITY.

G. COMPRISED OF MAJOR INVESTMENT PROJECTS ON INFRASTRUCTURE, CONNECTIVITY, AND OTHER ECONOMIC SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS, WITH A TOTAL VALUE INVESTMENT OF RP 4,000 TRILLION (US$ 450 BILLION) UNTIL 2014.



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H. POLITICAL ECONOMY OF STRUCTURAL REFORM :

STRUCTURAL REFORMS SYSTEM AND INSTITUTION BUILDING PROCESS INDONESIA ALSO INVESTED ITS STRUCTURAL REFORM THROUGH ITS COMMITMENTS IN THE ASEAN, G20, APEC, AND OIC SYNERGIZED WITH THE GOVERNMENT’S EFFORTS TO STABILIZE PERMANENTLY THE DEMOCRATIC REFORM IN INDONESIA USING ALL THE POTENTIAL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOTH DOMESTICALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PRO-GROWTH, PRO-POOR AND PRO-ENVIRONMENT 5 PILLARS: DEMOCRACY; HUMAN RIGHTS; ECONOMY; ECOLOGY; RULE OF LAW.

PRIME MOVER: EDUCATION/HUMAN CAPITAL.




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II. DYNAMIC OF INDONESIA (CONT.) II.4. LONG TERM PROJECTION 2020, 2030

The Super Cycle’s Report (Standard Chartered, 2010)



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INDONESIA

INDONESIA


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II. DYNAMIC OF INDONESIA (CONT.) II.4. LONGTERM PROJECTION 2050 (CONT.)

World’s Top 10 Economies European Commission, Europe’s Single

Market, together for new growth (2011).



Source: PriceWaterhouseCooper.

European Commission

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INDONESIA


III. INDONESIA IN THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT: SUPER-CYCLE

III.1. SUPER-CYCLE / KONDRATIEFF WAVE



A. THE SUPER-CYCLE (STANDARD CHARTERED REPORT 2010)

‘A PERIOD OF HISTORICALLY HIGH GLOBAL GROWTH, LASTING A GENERATION OR MORE, DRIVEN BY INCREASING TRADE, HIGH RATES OF INVESTMENT, URBANISATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION, CHARACTERISED BY THE EMERGENCE OF LARGE, NEW ECONOMIES, FIRST SEEN IN HIGH CATCH-UP GROWTH RATES ACROSS THE EMERGING WORLD’

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III.1. SUPER-CYCLE / KONDRATIEF WAVE (CONT.)


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III.1. SUPER-CYCLE / KONDRATIEFF WAVE (CONT.)



B. BASIC THEORY ON ECONOMIC CYCLES

1. KITCHEN CYCLES: SHORT TERM +/- 2-3 YEARS

2. JUGLAR CYCLES: MEDIUM TERM +/- 7-11 YEARS

3. KUZNETS CYCLES: MEDIUM TERM +/- 15-22 YEARS

4. KONDRATIEF WAVE: LONG TERM +/- 40-60 YEARS

KONDRATIEF WAVE THE SUPER-CYCLE

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C. THE RAPID INDUSTRIALISATION AND URBANISATION OF APP. 85% OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION LIVING IN EMERGING MARKETS ARE DRIVING THE PRESENT SUPER-CYCLE.

D. (STANDARD CHARTERED REPORT 2010) PROJECTION OF EAST ASIA

1. CHINA: In the next 20 years, China will provide one-fifth of global growth, and will become the world’s largest economy by 2020; by 2030, China will be nearly twice the size of the US.

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2. INDIA: India will become the fastest-growing major economy in the next 20 years, with its growth rate set to overtake China’s by 2012.

3. INDONESIA: will be the region’s star performer; the 28th-largest economy in 2000, the world’s 10th-largest in 2020 and fifth-largest in 2030.

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A. INDONESIA AMONG THE EMERGING ECONOMIES (8)

1) NEXT-11 (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam), The N-11 countries share the characteristics of rapidly growing populations combined with significant industrial capacity or potential and indicate a growing consumer market with increased earning potential, creating business opportunities for both local and international firms (2005: Goldman Sach and economist Jim O’Neil).

2) BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa),

Initially refer as BRIC countries named by Jim O’Neill-Goldman Sachs in their 2003’s report as the most developing countries with greatest economic potential, with China experiencing the highest growth in the group and Brazil the lowest. Indonesia and South Africa named in the later reference of BRIICS.


III.2. INDONESIA IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT



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3) EMERGING-7 (China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Rusia, Indonesia, Turkey), A group of seven countries with emerging economies. The E7 are predicted to have larger economies than the G7 countries by 2050. It refers to PWC 2006 & Goldman Sach Report 2007.

4) CIVETS (COLOMBIA, INDONESIA, VIETNAM, TURKEY, SOUTH AFRICA), A favour Emerging Markets for several reasons, such as "a diverse and dynamic economy" and "a young, growing population".

This group is comparable to the Next-11 (2009: Robert Ward, Economist Intelligence Unit)

5) EAGLE (EMERGING AND GROWTH LEADING ECONOMIES), A grouping acronym created in late 2010 by BBVA Research to identify all emerging economies, whose expected contribution to world economic growth in the next ten years is expected to be larger than the average of the G6 economies (G7 excluding the US). Consist of 10 economies in which Indonesia also listed.


III.2. INDONESIA IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT (CONT.)



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6) TIMBI (TURKEY, INDIA, MEXICO, BRAZIL AND INDONESIA), Indonesia is also grouped, according to Jack Goldstone “Foreign Policy” (2011). These countries which have a high potential of becoming, along with the BRICs, the world’s largest economies in the 21st century.

7) TRILLION-DOLLAR CLUB: In 2012 Indonesia has entered the so called Trillion-Dollar Club with GDP surpassed 1 trillion USD.

8) MIST (MEXICO, INDONESIA, SOUTH KOREA, TURKEY), a new acronym coined recently by Jim O’Neill-Goldman Sachs in August 2012, are the 4 biggest markets in the Goldman Sachs N-11 Equity Fund. The Goldman Sach Fund for MIST has increased 12% in the past year surpassing equity fund for BRIC which only stand for 1,5%.

EMERGING MARKETS AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ALREADY ACCOUNT FOR OVER HALF OF THE WORLD ECONOMY AND ITS GROWTH.

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Average share 0,7%

World export trend 2,94%





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B. BILATERAL TRADE BINDS (12): 1) Indonesia – Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)

2) Indonesia – Pakistan Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA)

3) Indonesia – EFTA Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)

4) Indonesia – Australia CEPA

5) Indonesia – India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (II-CECA)

6) Indonesia – Iran PTA

7) Indonesia – ROK CEPA

8) Indonesia – EU CEPA

9) Indonesia – Chile Free Trade Agreement (FTA)

10) Indonesia – Turkey FTA

11) Indonesia – Tunisia FTA*

12) Indonesia – Egypt FTA*

Implemented Negotiation

ongoing

Joint Study Group

* JSG ongoing





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C. REGIONAL & MULTILATERAL TRADE BINDS (8): 1) World Trade Organization (WTO)

2) ASEAN Economic Community 2015

3) ASEAN-CHINA FTA, A-KOREA FTA, A-JAPAN CEPA, A-AUSTRALIA-NEW ZEALAND FTA, A-INDIA FTA

4) D8-PTA (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey)

5) WTO Doha Round

6) ASEAN Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership*

7) ASEAN – Gulf Country Cooperation

8) ASEAN – MERCOSUR

Implemented Negotiation

ongoing

Initial Talks

* Internal discussion before engaging ASEAN FTA Partners





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The Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia 37

III.2. D. INDONESIAN GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS (CONT.)

INDONESIA 2011-2012 2010-2011

(out of 142) (out of 139)

Global Competitiveness Index 46 44

Basic requirements 53 60

1st pillar: Institutions 71 61

2nd pillar: Infrastructure 76 82

3rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment 23 34

4th pillar: Health and primary education 64 62

Efficiency enhancers 56 51

5th pillar: Higher education and training 69 66

6th pillar: Goods market efficiency 67 49

7th pillar: Labor market development 94 84

8th pillar: Financial market 69 62

9th pillar: Technological readiness 94 91

10th pillar: Market size 15 15

Innovation and sophistication factors 41 37

11th pillar: Business sophistication 45 37

12th pillar: Innovation 36 36

Source: WEF, Global Competitiveness Report

0 2 4 6

Turkey (59)

Mexico (58)

India (56)

Brazil (53)

South Africa (50)

Indonesia (46)

Thailand (39)

Brunei Darussalam (28)

China (26)

New Zealand (25)

Korea, Rep. (24)

Malaysia (21)

Australia (20)

Japan (9)

United States (5)

Finland (4)

Sweden (3)

Singapore (2)

Switzerland (1)

Score

Country(Rank)




Moody’s Sovereign Rating (2012).

Improved from Ba1 rating in 2011.

Projected to grow GDP (PPP), USD trillion

(2010).

The largest among ASEAN countries. Investment Growth in 2011

Economic growth (2011),

highest among ASEAN

countries

Fitch Investment Grade (2011). More attractive

than before (BB+ rating).

Share of Middle Class to total population (2010).

Shows a increasing number of wealthy individuals

Rank on Global Competitiveness Index 2011,

increased from 69th in 2005. Position on FDI Confidence Index 2012 (A.T.

Kearney). Indonesia was on 20th in the previous

year.




III.2. INDONESIA IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT (CONT.) III.2. E. INDONESIA’S PERFORMANCE:

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F. Indonesia ranked nr. 76 out of 208 countries in the 2012 KOF Economic Globalization Index, and it was nr. 77 in 2011.

G. INDONESIA’S TREND IN GLOBALIZATION SHOWS A BEYOND ENCOURAGING TREND SUPPORT BY SUPER-CYCLE PROJECTION AND INCREASING SIGNIFICANCE OF INDONESIA’S 5 PILLARS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GLOBALIZATION CONTEXT LEAD TO A NEW ERA FOR EAST ASIA.





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A. INDONESIA IN APEC (21)

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) established more than two decades ago many achievements peace, stability, prosperity and increased economic integration.

9 out of the 21 APEC members are G20 members and the world’s largest economies (United States, Japan and China) & includes emerging economies such as South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Vietnam etc. (next few decades, most of Asia Pacific economies will join the ranks of middle-income countries).




III.3. INDONESIA IN APEC AND G20

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B. INDONESIA IN G20

1. G20 started 1999 Summit started 2008 & replaced G8 as MAIN economic council of wealthy nations.

2. Set up by established powers to reflect new economic realities in which they saw new emerging powers as an opportunity for potential cooperation in addressing financial & economic global challenges.

3. Indonesia is the only ASEAN countries represented in the G20




III.3. INDONESIA IN APEC AND G20 (CONT.)

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4. INDONESIA IN G20 SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROBLEMS PARTNERSHIP

G20 global imbalances; IFI reform

G20 together with other emerging economies global financial safety net

G20 with all the developing world deliver an inclusive growth implementation on Multi Year Action Plan.

5. INDONESIA PRIORITIES Financial Inclusion; Social Safety Nets; Aid for trade; Food Security Key development issues in G20.




III.3. INDONESIA IN APEC AND G20 (CONT.)

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A. SOUTHEAST ASIAN AFFAIRS: IMPORTANT ISSUES

• SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTE

• PROLIFERATION OF ECONOMIC & TRADE PARTNERSHIP IN ASEAN COUNTRIES

B. INDONESIA AS DYNAMIC STABILIZER THROUGH ASEAN

C. INDONESIAN LEADERSHIP IN ASEAN

D. ASEAN INTEGRATION AND ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015

IV. INDONESIA AND ASIAN TRIANGLE EMERGING ECONOMIES AND POWERS

IV.1. INDONESIA AND ASEAN CENTRALITY



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IV. INDONESIA AND ASIAN TRIANGLE EMERGING ECONOMIES AND POWERS (CONT.)

IV.1. INDONESIA AND ASEAN CENTRALITY (CONT.)

SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTE China & Some ASEAN Countries Code of Conduct in the South China Sea

Other territorial disputes Within ASEAN & with other Asian Countries

PROLIFERATION OF ECONOMIC & TRADE PARTNERSHIP IN ASEAN COUNTRIES

INDONESIA AS DYNAMIC STABILIZER



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“ASIA PACIFIC REGIONAL SECURITY & STABILITY”

ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM (ARF)

“EMERGING ASIAN REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE”

ACCESION TO THE ASEAN TREATY OF AMITY AND COOPERATION AS PRE REQUIREMENT TO EAS

INDONESIA AS DYNAMIC STABILIZER THROUGH THE ASEAN CENTRALITY



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F. ASEAN CENTRALITY CONCENTRIC CIRCLES

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ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015

AND BEYOND

ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM

(ARF-27)

EAST ASIA SUMMIT

(ASEAN+8)

ASEAN+3

ASEAN+1

ASEAN


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G20

Economic architecture context.

ASEAN + 1 Mechanism context.

Source: Emerging Asian Regionalism: a Partnership for Shared Prosperity (A Study by ADB; 2008) – modified by the author; 2012.




G. INDONESIA WITHIN ASEAN CENTRALITY IN THE GLOBAL

LANDSCAPE OF REGIONALISM √


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A. ASIAN TRIANGLE EMERGING ENONOMY AND POWERS 3 EPICENTERS ASEAN, CHINA, INDIA

Asia’s economic rise in the current era focused on its newly-industrialized economies, known as NIEs: South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam (“developing Asia” : IMF Report)

IV. INDONESIA AND ASIAN TRIANGLE EMERGING ECONOMIES AND POWERS

IV.2. NEW EPICENTERS: ASEAN, CHINA, INDIA



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Source: MP-AEIED 2010-2025


IV.2. NEW EPICENTERS: ASEAN, CHINA, INDIA (CONT.)

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IV.2. NEW EPICENTERS: ASEAN, CHINA, INDIA (CONT.)



3,1

BILLION

INDIA= 1,2 BILLION

ASEAN= 0,6 BILLION

CHINA= 1,3 BILLION

EUROPEAN UNION =

0,5 BILLION UNITED STATES =

0,32 BILLION

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• INDONESIA’S POSITION AS THE 3RD LARGEST DEMOCRATIC COUNTRY AND THE BIGGEST MOSLEM COUNTRY IN THE WORLD (WITH DEMOCRATIC, MODERATE & TOLERANCE CHARACTERISTIC) .

• INDONESIA’S LEADERSHIP ROLE IN ASEAN.

• INDONESIA’S PROFILE AS EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING ECONOMY AND ITS PROJECTION TO BE EMERGING POWER.

A. INDONESIA – UNITED STATES

B. INDONESIA – EUROPEAN UNION (EU)

V. INDONESIA AND THE ESTABLISHED POWERS: UNITED STATES & EUROPEAN UNION



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A. INDONESIA – UNITED STATES COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

1. 2010 LAUNCHED BY PRESIDENTS OBAMA AND PRES. YUDHOYONO A LONG TERM COMMITMENT TO ELEVATE BILATERAL RELATIONS BY INTENSIFYING CONSULTATIONS AND DEVELOPING HABITS OF COOPERATION ON KEY BILATERAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL ISSUES.

2. COOPERATION UNDER THE COMPREHENSIVE PARTNERSHIP IS OUTLINED IN A PLAN OF ACTION CONSISTING OF THREE PILLARS: POLITICAL AND SECURITY; ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT; AND SOCIO-CULTURAL, EDUCATION, SCIENCE, AND TECHNOLOGY COOPERATION.

V. INDONESIA AND THE ESTABLISHED POWERS V.1. INDONESIA-UNITED STATES



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B. INDONESIA – EUROPEAN UNION (EU)

1. INDONESIA – EU COMPREHENSIVE PARTNERSHIP AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT (PCA) 2009.

2. THE ONLY ASIAN COUNTRY WHICH HAVE SUCH A COMPREHENSIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE 27 EU MEMBER COUNTRIES.

3. IT IS STILL WAITING FOR 5 MORE EU COUNTRIES TO RATIFY FOR THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION EXPECTED ON 2013.

4. ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY TIES BETWEEN INDONESIA-EU IN ALL AREAS AND MOST IMPORTANTLY IN TERM OF POLITICAL PROFILE, RANGE OF DIALOGUE &SCOPE OF COOPERATION.

V. INDONESIA AND THE ESTABLISHED POWERS (CONT.) V.2. INDONESIA-EUROPEAN UNION



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C. INDONESIA AND EU ECONOMIC CRISIS

1. REGIONAL/GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS IMBALANCES AND COLLISIONS TEND TO SEEK NEW EQUILIBRIUM.

2. THE ECONOMIC CRISIS IN EU TODAY HAS A POTENTIAL TENDENCY TOWARDS A RECESSION IN EU WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE WORLD RELATIVELY.

3. INDONESIA AND ASEAN HAS SEVERAL LESSONS LEARNT MAINLY FROM 1997/1998 ECONOMIC CRISIS.

V. INDONESIA AND THE ESTABLISHED POWERS (CONT.) V.3. INDONESIA AND EU ECONOMIC CRISIS



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4. THE IMPACT OF EU ECONOMIC CRISIS TO INDONESIA HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED IN SEVERAL WAYS AMONG OTHERS:

A. DEMAND ASPECT INCREASING DEMAND BY THE MIDDLE CLASS BOOMING AND SCALE IN INDONESIA

B. INVESTMENT ASPECT MASSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND CONNECTIVITY IN INDONESIA AND ASEAN FOREIGN INVESTMENT RELOCATION TO INDONESIA (30% OF GDP IN 2012) AND ASEAN BOTH EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE EXPORT LED GROWTH PERFORMANCE

C. FISCAL EXPANSION INDONESIA STILL HAVE AMPLE ROOM FOR BUDGET EXPANSION:

- INDONESIA’S BUDGET DEFICIT HAS BEEN MANAGED ONLY BY 1,2%; ASEAN HAS ADOPTED A SAFE LIMIT OF 3% FOR BUDGET DEFICIT.

- INDONESIA’S PUBLIC DEBT HAS BEEN MANAGED ONLY 27% OF ITS GDP; ASEAN HAS ADOPTED A SAFE LIMIT OF 60%.

V. INDONESIA AND THE ESTABLISHED POWERS (CONT.) V.3. INDONESIA AND EU ECONOMIC CRISIS (CONT.)




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THE EU ECONOMIC CRISIS WHICH PROBABLY COULD LEAD TO A RECESSION IN EUROPE WILL AFFECT MANY MAJOR ECONOMIES

IN THE WORLD

INDONESIA HAS STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT THE EU ECONOMIC CRISIS WOULD NOT SEVERELY IMPACT THE INDONESIA’S HIGH

ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE FUTURE

V. INDONESIA AND THE ESTABLISHED POWERS (CONT.) V.3. INDONESIA AND EU ECONOMIC CRISIS (CONT.)




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VI. CONCLUSION I 1. SYSTEM & INSTITUTION BUILDING PROCESS

2. BASED ON FIVE PILLARS (DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, ECONOMY, ECOLOGY, RULE OF LAW)

3. PRIME MOVER: EDUCATION/HUMAN CAPITAL PERMANENT PRIORITY

4. POLICY ORIENTATION: MILLION FRIENDS, ZERO ENEMIES

5. BASIC ROLE: AS DYNAMIC STABILIZER

6. BASIC APPROACH: REGIONAL & GLOBAL SYNERGISM WITH “COOPETITION” (COOPERATION+COMPETITION) MINDSET

SECURING INDONESIA AS DEVELOPED NATION IN THE 21ST CENTURY




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1) INDONESIA & DENMARK SHARE COMMON VALUES IN THE 5 PILLARS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

2) BOTH REFER TO WELFARE STATES MODEL OF DEVELPOMENT

3) COOPERATION IN EDUCATION ALONG WITH THE 5 PILLARS BECOME ONE OF THE MAIN PRIORITIES IN INDONESIA-DENMARK RELATIONS

VI. CONCLUSION II




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MANGE TAK! THANK YOU

Aarhus, 19th September 2012




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