indonesia bop q32011

8/2/2019 Indonesia BoP Q32011

1/51


2/512

Contact Address:

Balance of Payments BureauDirectorate of Economic and Monetary StatisticsBank IndonesiaSjafruddin Prawiranegara Tower, 16

thFloor

Jl. M. H. Thamrin No. 2Jakarta 10350Phone : (021) 3818328Fax : (021) 3800134E-mail : [email protected] : www.bi.go.id


3/51

INDONESIAS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTSREPORT

Third Quarter 2011

November 2011


4/514

This Page is Intentionally Left Blank


5/51

SUMMARY 1

INDONESIAS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS INQ3/2011 AND ITS CONTRIBUTING FACTORS 3

CURRENT ACCOUNT 5

1. Goods Trade Balance 5

1.1. Exports of Goods 6

1.2. Imports of Goods 12

2. Services Trade Balance 16

3. Income Account 17

4. Current Transfers 18

CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 21

1. Direct Investment 21

2. Portfolio Investment 22

3. Other Investment 25

RESERVE ASSETS 29

INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY 31

LIST OF CONTENTS


6/516

LIST OF TABLES

Page Pag

Table 1 Developments in Indonesia's Balance ofPayments and Some Economic Indicators

4

Table 14 Imports (f.o.b) by Classification of Goods

Table 2 Trade Balance in Goods Based on BPM5 6 Table 15 Non-oil and Gas Imports (c.i.f) by MainCountry of Origin

Table 3 Goods Export Growth by Sector 6 Table 16 Imports of 10 Leading Non-oil and GasCommodities (c.i.f) by Economic Category

Table 4 Goods Exports by Major Destination Countries 7 Table 17 Imports of Industrial Supplies (Processed)(c.i.f) by Main Country of Origin

Table 5 Developments in Exports of Major Non-oil andGas Commodities

7 Table 18 Imports of Capital Goods (except TransportEquipment) (c.i.f) by Main Country ofOrigin

Table 6 Coal Exports by Major Destination Countries 8 Table 19 Imports of Parts & Accessories for CapitalGoods (c.i.f) by Main Country of Origin

Table 7 Palm Oil Exports by Major DestinationCountries

9 Table 20 Imports of Parts & Accessories for TransportEquipment (c.i.f) by Major Country of

OriginTable 8 Exports of Rubber Products by Major

Destination Countries10 Table 21 Imports of Industrial Supplies (Primary)

(c.i.f) by Major Country of Origin

Table 9 Exports of Textiles and Textile Products byMajor Destination Countries

10 Table 22 Oil Imports

Table 10 Exports of Metal Products by MajorDestination Countries

10 Table 23 World Demand and Supply for Oil

Table 11 Exports of Electrical Appliances by MajorDestination Countries

11 Table 24 Developments in Indonesia's SovereignRating

Table 12 Oil Exports 11 Table 25 Indicators of External Sustainability

Table 13 Gas Exports 12


7/51

LIST OF CHARTS

PagePage

Chart 1 Current Account 5 Chart 17 FDI by Economic Sector 22

Chart 2 Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance 5 Chart 18 FDI by Country of Origin 22

Chart 3 Oil and Gas Trade Balance 6 Chart 19 Developments in Portfolio Investment 23

Chart 4 Developments in World Coal Prices 8 Chart 20 Changes in Foreigner Holdings of SBIs andIndonesian Government Securities

23

Chart 5 Developments in World Palm Oil Prices 9 Chart 21 Yield on Indonesia Global Bonds and US T-Notes

24

Chart 6 Developments in World Rubber Prices 9 Chart 22 Developments in SBI Rates 24

Chart 7 Developments in World Oil Prices 11 Chart 23 Foreigner Transactions on the IDX and JCI 24

Chart 8 Consumption of Oil-Based Fuels 16 Chart 24 Developments in ASEAN Stock MarketIndices

25

Chart 9 Developments in the Services Trade Balance 16 Chart 25 Portfolio Investment by Institutional Sector 25

Chart 10 Developments in Travel Services 17 Chart 26 Developments in Other Investment 25

Chart 11 Developments in the Income Account 18 Chart 27 Other Investment Asset Transactions,Private Sector

26

Chart 12 Workers Remittances 18 Chart 28 Other Investment Liability Transactions 26

Chart 13 Composition of Migrant Workers, Asia-PacificRegion

19 Chart 29 Developments in Public Sector ForeignLoans

27

Chart 14 Composition of Migrant Workers, Middle Eastand Africa

19

Chart 30 Developments in Private Sector ForeignLoans

27

Chart 15 Developments in the Capital and Financial

Account

21 Chart 31 Reserve Assets 29

Chart 16 Developments in Direct Investment 22


8/518



9/51

SUMMARY

The current account maintained its positive performance in Q3/2011 with a surplus of US$0.2 billion.

However, this surplus was inadequate to compensate the deficit in the capital and financial account of US$3.4

billion. As a result, Indonesia's overall balance of payments posted a US$4.0 billion deficit that brought international

reserves down to US$114.5 billion at end-September 2011, a level that is sufficient for 6.6 months of imports and

official external debt service payments.

The current account remained positive as surpluses in the goods trade balance and current transfers

outweighed the deficits in the services and income accounts. The surplus of goods trade balance was persistently

strong on the back of improved performance in the oil and gas trade balance. After registering a deficit in the

preceding quarter, the oil and gas trade balance returned to a surplus, supported by rising oil production and

volume of gas exports alongside diminishing volume of oil imports. An added positive contribution also came from

a reduced deficit in the services account in response to growing numbers of foreign travelers coming in Indonesia.

The capital and financial account turned into deficit as foreign investors reduced their holdings of domestic

stocks and government securities, while at the same time there were significant foreign holdings of Bank Indonesia

Certificates (SBIs) falling due. Triggering these portfolio capital outflows was the global financial market turmoil in

the wake of prolonged delays in finding a resolution to the Eurozone debt crisis. In contrast, foreign capital inflows

by means of direct investment and lending to the private sector remained high, buoyed by a conducive investment

climate and stable macro-economic condition.

SUMMARY


10/512



11/51

In Q3/2011, Indonesia's balance of payments posted a USD4.0 billion deficit, mainly due to pressure on the

capital and financial account, which run a deficit of USD3.4 billion. At this level, the deficit was well in excess of

current account surplus recorded at USD0.2 billion. Amid intensifying uncertainty of finding resolution of the

European debt crisis resulted in the region economic slowdown and deceleration of the United States economic

growth, the goods trade balance continued to chart a surplus. This surplus, combined with current transfer surplus,

outweighed the deficit in the income and services accounts, ensuring a continued surplus in the current account.

On the other hand, the development in the Europe and the US prompted large-scale outflows of portfolio

investment capital, mostly from stocks and Indonesian government bonds. Nevertheless, buoyant inflows of direct

investment kept the capital and financial account from precipitous decline.

Factors influencing developments in the Indonesia balance of payments during Q3/2011 include:

Diversifying across multiple trading partners bolstered a remained robust export performance during thequarter, despite some slackening in prices for major export commodities.

A buoyant economic growth of 6.5% in Q3/2011 on the back of brisk expansion in household consumptionand investment at 4.8% and 7.1%. The upbeat trend in domestic demand fuelled accelerated growth in non-

oil and gas imports.

Rising oil production and a modest reduction in domestic consumption of oil-based fuels narrowed the deficitin the oil trade balance.

The global financial market turmoil triggered by uncertainties over a resolution on euro sovereign debt crisisand worsening US economy has affected financial markets in emerging market economies, including Indonesia.

Heavy outflows of capital from the domestic stock and Indonesian government bonds markets, mainly in

August and September 2011, combined with the high volume of maturing SBIs held by foreigners, led to deficit

pressure in the capital and financial account.

INDONESIAS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IN Q3/2011

AND ITS CONTRIBUTING FACTORS


12/514

Table 1Developments in Indonesia's Balance of Payments

and Some Economic Indicators

Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1* Q2** Q3**

WORLDECONOMICINDICATORS

EconomicGrowth

UnitedStatesofAmerica %(y.o.y) 3.5 2.2 3.3 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.6

Japan %(y.o.y) 6.3 5.7 3.1 5.0 2.2 4.0 1.0 1.1 0.0

EuropeanUnion %(y.o.y) 4.1 0.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.5 1.8 1.4f

Singapore %(y.o.y) 0.8 16.4 19.4 10.5 12.0 14.5 9.3 1.0 5.5f

China %(y.o.y) 9.1 11.9 10.3 9.6 9.8 10.3 9.7 9.5 9.1

WorldPriceCommodity

CrudeOil (OPEC) USD/barel 61.1 75.5 76.6 73.8 83.9 77.5 101.3 112.2 108.4

Coal USD/metric ton 72 95 99 94 107.6 99 129.0 120 120.6

Copper USD/metric ton 5,150 7,232 7,027 7,243 8,637 7,535 9,642 9,173 8,984

CPO USD/ton 683 808 813 875 1,108 901 1,251 1,147 1,079.0

Rubber centUSD/kg 215 345 381 361 459 387 602 560 497.7

InternationalInterest

Rates

UnitedStatesofAmerica % 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.3

Japan % 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.05 0.1

EuropeanUnion % 1.23 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.5

Singapore % 0.66 0.26 0.48 0.36 0.30 0.35 0.30 0.26 0.4

China % 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.95 1.84 2.25 2.25 2.3

Inflation

UnitedStatesofAmerica %(y.o.y) 2.8 2.4 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.7 3.4 3.9

Japan %(y.o.y) 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0

EuropeanUnion %(y.o.y) 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.0

Singapore %(y.o.y) 0.5 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.6 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.5

China %(y.o.y) 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.6 4.6 4.6 5.4 6.4 6.1

DOMESTICECONOMICINDICATORS

GDP %(y.o.y) 4.5 5.6 6.1 5.8 6.9 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.5

CPIInflation %(y.o.y) 2.8 3.4 5.1 5.8 7.0 7.0 6.7 5.4 4.9

ExchangeRates (Rp/USD) 10,395 9,263 9,118 9,001 8,963 9,084 8,899 8,590 8,610

AveragePriceofCrudeOilExport USD/barel 59.6 75.2 76.8 73.8 84.9 77.7 102.3 114.9 111.1

Oil Production mbpd 0.949 0.954 0.965 0.950 0.912 0.945 0.908 0.900 0.908

FuelConsumption mbpy 390.7 94.3 100.3 105.6 104.8 404.9 108.6 113.3 113.1

GasExport(LNG) mmbtu 1,030 277 309 311 314.7 1,211 268.6 269 294.7

GasExportAveragePrice(LNG) USD/mmbtu 7.0 7.8 7.8 7.5 8.1 7.8 10.3 12.1 12.9

BIRate1)

%(annual) 7.15 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.5 6.50 6.8 6.75 6.75

INDONESIA'SBALANCEOFPAYMENTS

CurrentAccount millionUSD 10,628 1,936 1,409 1,205 1,093 5,643 2,071 475 199

CapitalandFinancialAccount millionUSD 4,852 5,590 3,697 7,384 9,550 26,220 6,428 13,089 3,391

Total millionUSD 15,481 7,526 5,106 8,590 10,642 31,863 8,499 13,564 3,192

NetErrorsandOmissions millionUSD 2,975 905 315 1,635 646 1,578 833 1,688 768

OverallBalance millionUSD 12,506 6,621 5,421 6,955 11,289 30,285 7,666 11,876 3,960

ForeignExchangeReserves millionUSD 66,105 71,823 76,321 86,551 96,207 96,207 105,709 119,655 114,503

Source:BankIndonesia, CEIC,IMF,WorldBank, an dothersources

an interest rate policysets bycentral bank/monetaryauthority(calculated as the monthlyaverage)

en dmonth positionofthe relevantquarter

*) Provisional figures (forIndonesia's BalanceofPayments)

** Veryprovisionalfigures (forIndonesia's BalanceofPayments)

f ( Co n s es u sforecastestimation)

20112010*ITEMS UNITS

2009


13/51

The current account in Q3/2011 posted a USD0.2

billion surplus (0.1% of GDP) on account of positive

performances of the non-oil and gas trade balance, the

gas trade balance, and current transfers that

outweighed the deficits in the oil trade balance,

services, and income. However, this surplus was lesser

than the previous quarter (USD0.5 billion surplus), due

mainly to accelerated import growth driven by buoyant

domestic economic activity and widening deficit in the

income brought about by hefty payments of profittransfers and investment returns to foreign investors.

Chart 1Current Account

1. Goods Trade BalanceThe surplus of goods trade balance in Q3/2011

seemed to equate the preceding quarter surplus at

USD9.6 billion. Robust exports were reflected in both

higher non-oil and gas and oil & gas exports over the

preceding quarter. However, compared with Q2/2011,

the non-oil and gas trade surplus was lower as non-oil

and gas export growth was lesser (0.3%, q.t.q) than the

growth of non-oil and gas imports (4.9%, q.t.q). This

phenomenon was consistent with persistently strong

domestic demand in contrast to moderating external

demand.

In comparison with the same period one year earlier

(y.o.y), non-oil and gas exports still outperformed non-

oil and gas imports, with annual growth of 29.5% and

27.3% respectively.

Chart 2Non-oil and Gas Trade Balance

The 9.0% increase in the gas trade surplus to

USD4.6 billion from the previous quarter contributed as

well to overall improvement in the goods trade balance.

Complementing this was an easing in the oil trade

deficit due to higher oil production while oil imports

contracted owing to the downward trend in oil prices.

In response to these developments, the oil and gas

trade balance posted a USD416 million surplus, a switch

from deficit of USD914 million in the previous quarter.

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

million USD

Trade Balance Services Income Current Trans. Current Account

*provisional figures** Veyprovisional figures

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

milli on USDmilli on USD

Expo rts Imp orts No n Oil & Gas Trade Balance (RHS)

*Provisionalfigures** Veryprovisionalfigures

CURRENT ACCOUNT


14/516

Chart 3Oil and Gas Trade Balance

The goods trade balance performance can also be

analyzed by classifying goods into the following five

categories: (1) general merchandise, (2) goods for

processing, (3) repairs on goods, (4) goods procured in

ports by carriers, and (5) non-monetary gold. The

goods trade surplus was mainly contributed by general

merchandise surplus of USD8.9 billion during the

quarter under review, ahead of the USD8.2 billion

recorded in the previous period. Meanwhile, repairs on

goods again charted a deficit during the quarter at

USD30 million.

Table 2Trade Balance in Goods Based on BPM5

1.1. Exports of GoodsExports of goods in Q3/2011 reached USD52.8

billion, increased by 1.8% from USD51.8 billion one

quarter earlier. In sector terms, the export growth was

driven by increased in mining exports with quarterly

growth of 11.6% (q.t.q). However, negative growth in

agriculture and manufacturing, recorded at -7.1%

(q.t.q) and -2.3% (q.t.q) respectively, prevented export

growth from reaching higher levels. Manufactured

(62.9%) and mining products (32.9%) were the leading

contributors to exports of goods.

Measured against the previous year period, exports

of goods grew by 32.8% (y.o.y) in Q3/2011,

decelerated compared to 38.3% (y.o.y) in Q2/2011. This

more moderate rate was explained largely by negative

growth in exports of agricultural products at -13.2%

(y.o.y) and slower manufactured exports (28.6%, y.o.y),

which contrasted to higher growth in mining exports

(44.0%, y.o.y) compared to the preceding quarter

(40.0%, y.o.y).

Table 3Goods Export Growth by Sector

-1,200

-800-400

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

-6,000

-4,000-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

million USDmillion USD

Exports Imports Oil & Gas Trade Balance (RHS)

*Provisionalfigures** Veryprovisional figures

Total Q1* Q2* Q3**

General Merchandise 29,449 7,633 8,779 8,877

Goods for processing -216 602 76 26

Repairs on goods -159 -34 -28 -30

Goods procured in ports by

carriers

538 258 339 365

Nonmonetary gold 1,016 227 471 320

Goods Trade Balance 30,628 8,686 9,637 9,558

* Provisional figures

** Very provisional figures

Trade Balance (million USD)

Details2010* 2011

2011**

Jan-Sep Q1* Q2* Q3** Q1* Q2* Q3**

Agricultural Products 3.2 2.5 -9.6 2.1 -7.1 17.4 15.3 -13.2

Manufacture

Products

63.7 62.9 -1.8 13.1 -2.3 32.8 38.9 28.6

Mining Products

(including oil & gas)

31.7 32.9 4.6 12.0 11.6 27.5 40.0 44.0

Other goods


1.5 1.7 1.3 54.2 -8.2 31.8 28.4 88.3

Export Total 100.0 100.0 0.0 13.0 1.8 30.6 38.3 32.8

o.w. Oil 9.9 10.1 6.8 3.0 3.8 36.6 30.2 38.4

Gas 8.2 8.9 12.6 16.0 14.0 28.1 35.8 59.9

* Provisional figures** Very provisional figures

Share (%)

2010*2011 2011

Growth y.o.y (%)Growth q.t.q (%)Details


15/51

In quarterly terms, exports of goods to major

destinations, such as Japan, China, and Singapore

charted positive growth, led by Singapore (27.5%,

q.t.q). This contrasted with Indonesia's exports of goods

to the European Union and the United States that grew

by -7.5% (q.t.q) and -2.3% (q.t.q), in line with theeconomic slowdown due to the debt crisis striking these

nations. Measured annually, exports to all major

destinations remained positive, led by exports to Asian

emerging markets such as Singapore and China.

Key commodities bolstering non-oil and gas

exports during the reporting quarter include coal, palm

oil, rubber products, textiles and textile products,

metal products, and electrical equipment

Table 4Goods Exports

by Major Destination Countries

Table 5Developments in Exports of Major Non-Oil and Gas Commodities

q.t.q y.o.y

Japan 8,702 16.5 1.1 29.9

China 6,195 11.7 9.8 72.5

Singapore 5,498 10.4 27.5 74.7

European Union 5,153 9.8 -7.5 15.4

USA 3,988 7.6 -2.3 8.1

Others 23,216 44.0 -1.6 28.1

Total 52,751 100.0 1.8 32.8**)

Very provisional figures

Country Value(mill USD)

Share

(%)

Growth (%)

Q3-2011**

2011**

Jan-Sep Q2* Q3** Q2* Q3** Q2* Q3** Q2* Q3** Q2* Q3** Q2* Q3**

1. Coal 13.8 15.5 19.7 9.2 23.0 5.2 -2.8 3.8 54.5 59.6 21.8 23.4 26.8 29.3

2. Palm Oil 10.4 10.2 81.1 -20.4 89.5 -12.2 -4.4 -9.3 125.1 17.1 57.2 -7.4 43.2 26.4

3. Rubber Product 7.1 9.1 9.4 -7.4 10.3 3.6 -0.7 -10.6 65.6 59.0 35.7 43.1 22.1 11.1

4. Textile & Textile Product 8.7 8.4 2.1 -1.1 0.1 -5.9 2.0 5.1 24.5 15.9 13.2 -0.9 10.0 16.9

5. Metal Product 7.6 7.9 4.2 -1.1 6.1 -2.2 -1.8 1.1 52.1 38.1 22.2 9.9 24.4 25.7

6. Electrical Appliances 8.5 7.1 2.0 11.0 -3.8 25.4 6.0 -11.5 3.4 8.1 -16.6 6.4 24.0 1.5

7. Coppers 4.9 3.6 -13.5 53.6 -31.0 69.7 25.4 -9.5 -1.8 -4.7 -53.9 -45.1 113.1 73.5

8. Chemicals 2.6 3.0 21.0 -6.9 20.1 -6.9 0.8 -0.1 47.9 56.2 33.4 34.9 10.9 15.8

9. Processed Food 2.8 2.7 10.9 4.7 6.3 12.0 4.3 -6.5 27.6 35.1 13.2 31.3 12.7 2.9

10. Papers 3.2 2.6 13.1 -2.8 12.8 -9.2 0.2 7.0 4.7 9.4 -0.2 -4.1 4.9 14.0

*) provisional figures

**) very provisional figures

20112011201120112011

Growth y.o.y (%)

NominalPrice Index Price Index

Growth q.t.q (%)

RealNominal Real

2010*

Share (%)

2011


16/518

Coal

Coal is Indonesia's leading non-oil and gas export

commodity, accounting for a 15.5% share during 2011

(figures until September). During the period under

review, coal exports reached USD7.1 billion, the highest

on record since 2009, growing by 9.2% over theprevious period.

Growth in coal exports was driven more by

5.2% increased in volume (q.t.q), while coal export

prices were up 3.8% (q.t.q) during the quarter.

Higher export volume was mainly a result of

augmented coal shipments to China (26.9%, q.t.q) and

South Korea. (27.9%, q.t.q). The economic

slowdown in China, reflected in a fall in GDP growth

from 9.5% (y.o.y) in Q2/2011 to 9.1% (y.o.y) during

the quarter under review, did nothing to diminish

the nations appetite for Indonesian coal. This is due to

the strong demand in China for coal to fuel

power generation plants, to supply industry, as well as

in anticipation of the onset of winter in the fourth

quarter.

International coal prices were stable during

Q3/2011 at about USD120/Mton. This state was

explained by slack demand for coal in Europe due to

the ongoing debt crisis in the region.

Chart 4Developments in World Coal Prices

In addition to China and South Korea, mounting

demand for coal exports also charted by Japan (6.3%,

q.t.q). However, coal exports to India and Taiwan

decreased by -3.5% (q.t.q).

Table 6Coal Exports by Major Destination Countries

Besides the positive growth in quarter-to-quarter

basis, upbeat performance in coal exports was also

reflected in annual growth, which strengthened from

54.5% in Q2/2011 to 59.6% during the quarter under

review.

Palm Oil

Exports of palm oil experienced negative growth at

-20.4% compared to the preceding quarter, falling

from USD5.2 billion in Q2/2011 to USD4.2 billion in

Q3/2011. This downturn in export value resulted from

reduced volume of palm oil exports and a drop in

export prices in keeping with falling palm oil prices on

the world market during Q3/2011.

Palm oil exports to almost all major destinations

declined; with the exception to this was the exports to

Singapore that continued to widen by 6.1% (q.t.q).

The imposition of an export tax to ensure adequate

supply of palm oil for domestic consumption and to

develop downstream industries for palm oil in Indonesia

are also believed to have contributed to diminishing

volume during Q3/2011.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2009 2010 2011

USD/MTon

Source:WorldBank

q.t.q y.o.y

China 2,155 30.5 26.9 124.3

India 1,203 17.0 -3.5 122.1

Japan 893 12.6 6.3 30.6

South Korea 739 10.5 27.9 16.8

Taiwan 559 7.9 -3.5 53.4

Others 1,514 21.4 -0.8 21.8

Total 7,064 100.0 9.2 59.6**)

Very provisiona l figures

Q3-2011**

Value

(mill USD)

Share

(%)

Growth (%)Country


17/51

Table 7Palm Oil Exports by Major Destination Countries

Besides declining demand for palm oil, the

downturn in exports was also impacted by a 5.9%

(q.t.q) drop in world palm oil prices from

USD1,147/MTons in Q2/2011 to USD1,079/MTons in

Q3/2011.

Chart 5Developments in World Palm Oil Prices

Rubber Products

Exports of rubber products in Q3/2011

experienced negative growth at -7.4% compared to

one quarter earlier. Exports of rubber products totaled

USD3.6 billion in Q3/2011, down from USD3.9 billion in

Q2/2011. The fall in export value was mainly due to the

12% (q.t.q) drop in world rubber prices from the

Q2/2011 level of USD530.1 cents/kg to USD465.3

cents/kg in Q3/2011. Rubber prices came down in

response to slackening world demand on fears of more

countries in Europe becoming engulfed in the debt

crisis, weakening of the United States economy, andrecovery lag in Japan's automotive industry in the wake

of this year's earthquake and tsunami.

Chart 6Developments in World Rubber Prices

Decline in world rubber prices was reflected in a

10.6% (q.t.q) fall in the unit price of Indonesian rubber

exports.

Nevertheless, volume of rubber exports increased

by 3.6% compared to the preceding quarter. Higher

export volume was driven largely by rising demand from

China and South Korea that grew at 27.0% (q.t.q) and

9.9% (q.t.q) rate consecutively. However, growth in

export volume was constrained by weakening demand

for rubber products from the European Union, the

United States, and Japan, key export destinations and

the world's largest consumers of rubber.

Despite the downturn in quarterly terms,

Indonesia's rubber exports nevertheless posted

significant annual growth at 59.0% in Q3/2011.

q.t.q y.o.y

India 1,478 35.1 -13.5 14.2

European Union 500 11.9 -19.8 -23.5China 438 10.4 -38.4 16.6

Singapore 235 5.6 6.1 73.5

Malaysia 232 5.5 -50.0 12.7

Others 1,331 31.6 -14.8 42.7

Total 4,213 100.0 -20.4 17.1**) Very provisional figures

Value

(mill USD)

Country

Q3-2011**

Share

(%)

Growth (%)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2009 2010 2011

USD/MTon

Source:WorldBank

0100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2009 2010 2011

c/kg

Source:WorldBank


18/510

Table 8Exports of Rubber Products by Major Destination

Countries

Textiles and Textile Products

Exports of textiles and textile products in Q3/2011

reached USD3.4 billion, down slightly from the previous

quarter. The 1.1% drop in the value of these exports

resulted from a 5.9% (q.t.q) fall in exports volume,

mostly destined for the European Union, Indonesias

second largest market for textiles and textile products.

Nevertheless, exports of Indonesian textiles and

textile products to the United States, Japan, South

Korea, and China forged ahead with growth at 4.5%,4.7%, 4.6%, and 28.6% (q.t.q). Taken together,

annual growth in exports of textiles and textile products

reached 15.9% (y.o.y).

Table 9Exports of Textiles and Textile Products

by Major Destination Countries

Metal Products

Exports of metal products during Q3/2011 were

USD3.2 billion, decreased 1.1% from the previous

period. The decline was explained by reduced export

volume, among others impacting tin (-14.2%, q.t.q),

aluminium (-3.5%, q.t.q), iron (-18.61%, q.t.q), and

zinc (-21.3%, q.t.q).

Exports to Singapore recorded the steepest

contraction at -14.7% (q.t.q), as tin and zinc exports to

this destination plunging -30.0% (q.t.q) and -78.2%

(q.t.q). On the other hand, export growth to Japan,

Malaysia, Thailand, and the European Union remained

positive.

Table 10

Exports of Metal Productsby Major Destination Countries

Compared to the same period one year before,

exports of metal products grew by 38.1% (y.o.y) during

the quarter under review.

Electrical Appliances

Exports of electrical appliances improved 11.0%

over the previous period, reaching USD3.1 billion. Key

to this growth was the higher export volume that

increased 25.4% over the preceding quarter.

The leading destinations for Indonesia's exports of

electrical appliances were Singapore, the European

Union, the United States, Japan, and Hongkong.

Exports to all these destinations charted positive

growth.

q.t.q y.o.y

USA 823 22.8 -11.2 73.7

European Union 616 17.0 -15.5 89.2

China 612 16.9 27.0 69.5

Japan 461 12.8 -16.3 45.2

South Korea 153 4.2 9.9 97.8

Others 950 26.3 -11.6 32.3

Total 3,615 100.0 -7.4 59.0** Very provisional figures


Share

(%)

Growth (%)

Q3-2011**

q.t.q y.o.y

USA 1,208 35.6 4.5 8.4

European Union 632 18.6 -6.8 15.5

Japan 261 7.7 4.7 63.3

South Korea 126 3.7 4.6 23.4

China 115 3.4 28.6 51.5

Others 1,053 31.0 -7.5 13.4



Share

(%)

Q3-2011**

Growth (%)

q.t.q y.o.y

Japan 997 30.9 1.4 42.5

Singapore 562 17.4 -14.7 32.5

Malaysia 303 9.4 6.8 13.4

Thailand 282 8.7 13.7 101.3

European Union 188 5.8 4.3 34.1

Others 893 27.7 -1.4 34.4

Total 3,226 100.0 -1.1 38.1**) Very provisional figures

Country

Q3-2011**

Value

(mill USD)

Share

(%)

Growth (%)


19/51

Table 11Exports of Electrical Appliancesby Major Destination Countries

Measured annually, exports of electrical appliances

grew by 8.1% (y.o.y) during Q3/2011, an improvement

over 3.4% growth (y.o.y) recorded in the preceding

quarter.

Oil Exports

Oil exports during Q3/2011 reached USD5.2

billion, 3.8% higher than USD5.0 billion in the previous

period. Oil exports rose on 13.6% (q.t.q) increased

value of refinery products, mostly reflecting higher price

for oil products, while crude oil prices maintained a

downward trend compared to one quarter before.

Consistent with the softening trend in oil prices, crude

exports in Q3/2011 down by 0.3% (q.t.q). Destinations

for Indonesian crude exports include Japan, Australia,

South Korea, and Singapore, while the exports

themselves consist of the Belida, Attaka, Belanak, SLC

and Duri crudes.

Table 12Oil Exports

Quarterly average OPEC, WTI and Brent Crude

prices fell from USD112.4, USD102.5, and USD117.1

per barrel in Q2/2011 to USD108.5, USD89.7, and

USD112.5 per barrel in Q3/2011.

The drop in world oil prices was triggered by

slackening demand for oil in a number of OECDcountries, including some European Union members,

due to the weakening global economy. Also

contributing to lower oil prices was the IMF's

downward revision of the 2011 world economic growth

forecast in the World Economic Outlook September

2011 to 4% from 4.3% in July 2011. World economic

growth has been revised lower due to the vulnerable

condition of the economies of the United States and the

European Union.

On the supply side, the resumption of Libyan

refinery operations in the wake of the nation's internal

conflict has put more supply back on the world oil

market. However, reduced oil demand portends to

create an oversupply that will hold down world oil

prices.

Chart 7

Developments in World Oil Prices

Volume of crude oil exports increased during the

quarter, reflecting rising domestic oil production from

0.900 million bpd in Q2/2011 to 0.908 million bpd in

Q3/2011. However, even at this level, output was well

below the Revised 2011 Budget target at 0.945 million

bpd. The increased volume of oil production during the

q.t.q y.o.y

Singapore 718 23.1 2.5 -3.0European Union 419 13.5 24.8 11.9

USA 334 10.7 9.6 -11.6

Japan 326 10.5 18.9 0.7

Hongkong 218 7.0 36.1 54.9

Others 1,096 35.2 6.7 18.9

Total 3,111 100.0 11.0 8.1**) Very provisional figures

Country

Q3-2011**

Value

(mill USD)

Share

(%)

Growth (%)

Exports 5,000 42.0 5,189 42.5

Crude Oil 3,522 30.7 114.9 3,510 31.6 111.1

Refinery Products 1,478 11.3 130.9 1,679 10.9 153.8

Sources: BPMigas & PT Pertamina (Processed)

*) Provisional figures

**) Very provisional figures

DetailsQ3**

Value

(mil. USD)

Volume

(mbbl)

Price

($/barel)

2011

Q2**

Value

(mil. USD)

Volume

(mbbl)

Price

($/barel)

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S

2008 2009 2010 2011

USD/barel

SLC

Indonesia's Export Price

WTI

OPEC

Source: OPEC, Ditjen Migas


20/512

quarter followed the completion of repair work at a

number of wells where production had been disrupted,

such as in the Belida - Conoco Philips, West Madura -

Pertamina EP, and the Mahakam Block oil fields.

Gas ExportsExports of gas mounted 14.0% during Q3/2011

from USD4.5 billion in Q2/2011 to USD5.1 billion.

Contributing to this increase was growth in exports of

LNG and natural gas at 18.3% (q.t.q) and 3.0% (q.t.q).

Table 13Gas Exports

Higher LNG export values were supported by both

increased export volume and prices. Volume of LNG

exports rose 9.7% (q.t.q) from 269 million MMBTU in

Q2/2011 to 295 million MMBTU in Q3/2011. LNG

prices also strengthened 6.6% (q.t.q) from

USD12.1/million MMBTU in Q2/2011 to

USD12.9/million MMBTU in Q3/2011. Similarly, the

increased value of natural gas exports resulted from a

4.0% (q.t.q) rise in volume from 90 million MMBTU in

Q2/2011 to 94 million MMBTU in Q3/2011.

The higher volume of gas exports was explained

by added gas production from improved

performance by some Production Sharing Contractors

(PSCs) and increased gas production capacity of the

Tangguh field.

1.2. Imports of GoodsDuring the period under review, imports of goods

(f.o.b) edged upwards by 2.5% over the previous

quarter to USD43.2 billion. Non-oil and gas imports

mounted by 4.9% (q.t.q) and gas imports soared

82.0% (q.t.q), while oil imports fell by 7.6% (q.t.q).

Disaggregated by broad economic category (BEC),

increased imports were led by capital goods and

consumption goods, with quarterly growth reaching

27.0% and 11.8% (q.t.q). The increased imports of

capital and consumption goods during the quarter was

explained by vibrant growth in domestic investment and

consumption (5.1% and 2.3%, q.t.q). In contrast,

imports of raw materials/auxiliary goods charted

negative 3.6% growth (q.t.q).

Measured annually, goods imports in Q3/2011

registered buoyant growth at 34.5%. Import growth

accelerated in all three categories, with consumption

goods climbing 46.9%, raw materials/auxiliary goods

up by 33.4%, and capital goods by 31.2%. This was

consistent with the real 6.5% growth in the domestic

economy underpinned by real growth in household

consumption and investment at 4.8% and 7.1%.Table 14

Imports (f.o.b) by Classification of Goods

Exports 4,490 5,119- LNG 3,225 269 12.1 3,816 295 12.9

- LPG - - - - - -

- Natural Gas 1,265 90.1 14.0 1,303 93.7 13.9

* Provisional Figures

** Very provisional figures1) LNG and Natural gas in million mmbtu, LPG in thousand Metric Ton2) LNG and Natural Gas in USD/million mmbtu, LPG in USD/thousand Metric Ton

Source: BPMIGAS

Q3**Value

(mil. USD)

Vol1) Price2)

2011

DetailsQ2*

Value

(mil. USD)

Vol1) Price2)

2011**

Jan-Sep Q1* Q2* Q3** Q1* Q2* Q3**

Consumption goods


12.4 13.3 18.1 0.1 11.8 48.1 34.2 46.9

Raw materials/

auxiliary goods


70.5 71.4 2.5 18.6 -3.6 34.0 41.2 33.4

Capital goods 16.3 14.7 -12.6 2.1 27.0 13.9 26.1 31.2

Other goods


0.8 0.6 -37.7 10.7 20.5 -10.1 -1.2 8.3

Import Total 100.0 100.0 1.5 13.5 2.5 32.0 37.8 34.5

o.w. Oil 19.1 22.6 12.0 21.7 -7.6 58.9 68.9 62.6

Gas 0.8 1.0 -15.6 -18.5 82.2 73.1 53.2 151.5

* Provisional figures

** Very prov isional figures

2011 2011

Growth y.o.y (%)Growth q.t.q (%)

Details

Share (%)

2010*


21/51

Non-Oil and Gas Imports

Non-oil and gas imports reached USD33.3 billion

(f.o.b) during Q3/2011, an increase of 4.9% over one

quarter earlier. Annual growth in non-oil and gas

imports was significantly higher at 27.3% (y.o.y), with

the most vigorous expansion recorded in consumptiongoods.

Large portions of Indonesia's non-oil and gas

imports were originated from China (17.5%), Japan

(14.6%), Singapore (8.5%), Thailand (8.4%), and the

United States (7.2%). China and Japan consistently

retained top positions as sources of imports, while

Thailand rose to the ranks of leading countries of origin

during the last quarter. Indonesia's sizeable imports of

food from Thailand were the main reason for the high

volume of imports from that country. While the

Eurozone remains shrouded in uncertainty over its

economy, imports from the region continued at a brisk

pace.

Table 15Non-oil and Gas Imports (c.i.f) by Main Country of Origin

Table 16Imports of 10 Leading Non-Oil and Gas Commodities (c.i.f)by Economic Category

Value Share

(mill USD) (%) q.t.q y.o.y

China 6,484 17.5 -3.5 26.8

Japan 5,092 14.6 20.0 12.4

Singapore 2,968 8.5 14.1 22.5

Thailand 2,692 8.4 3.4 18.5

USA 2,568 7.2 0.7 46.0

Others 15,587 44.0 3.5 35.6

Total 35,391 100.0 9.1 28.1**) Very provisional figures

Q1-2011**

Country Growth (%)

2011**

Jan-Sep Q2* Q3** Q2* Q3**

Industrial supplies, processed 39.1 39.5 16.8 -4.1 33.2 24.6

Capital goods (except transport equipment)17.5 16.9 8.4 9.9 31.6 26.5

Parts and accessories for capital goods 13.8 12.4 12.9 3.7 17.5 8.0

Parts and accessories for transport equipments 5.8 5.3 1.9 13.5 12.6 17.9

Other transport equipment, industrial 5.2 5.2 3.8 59.7 29.1 54.2

Industrial supplies, primary 4.2 5.2 44.0 -18.2 75.6 48.7

Food and beverages, primary, mainly for industry 2.9 3.2 24.6 2.5 47.2 67.0

Foods and beverages, processed, mainly for household 2.3 2.6 -31.5 9.4 23.8 60.3

Food and beverages, processed, mainly for industry 2.1 2.6 15.3 6.1 62.6 80.7

Food and beverages,primary, mainly for household 1.1 1.5 1.0 65.5 36.9 102.1* Provisional Figures

** Very Provisional Figures

Descriptions

Share (%)

2010(y.o.y)(q.t.q)

Growth (%)


22/514

Industrial Supplies (Processed)

Like in the previous quarter, imports of industrial

supplies dominated total non-oil and gas imports during

Q3/2011 with a share of 39.5%. Imports of these

commodities in Q3/2011 were recorded at USD13.3

billion (c.i.f), representing a 4.1% decline from the

quarter before. However, when compared to the same

period one year earlier, imports of industrial supplies

were up 24.6%. Leading commodities driving imports

in this category include iron & steel and textiles

(manufactured products), chemicals and plastic

products.

Table 17Imports of Industrial Supplies (Processed) (c.i.f)

by Main Country of Origin

Analysed by country of origin, imports of industrial

supplies were dominated by commodities from China

(17.3% of the total), Japan (11.9%), South Korea

(9.1%), and Singapore (8.2%). In quarterly figures, the

slowing imports of these commodities were explained

by reduced imports from China and Thailand.

Capital Goods (except Transport Equipment)

This category, the second largest imported

commodities, reported both quarterly and annual

growth. During Q3/2011, imports of capital goods

except transport equipment totalled USD6.1 billion

(c.i.f), representing an increase of 9.9% (q.t.q) or

26.5% (y.o.y). Steadily augmenting foreign direct

investment in Indonesia and domestic business

expansion were reportedly the driving factors in this

improvement. Increased imports in this category were

driven by imports of machinery for specialized and

general industry and of telecommunications equipment.

The leading countries of origin for these commoditieswere China (33.4%), Japan (16.2%), and Singapore

(9.2%). In annual measures, the highest growth levels

were recorded for imports from Thailand, Singapore,

and South Korea at 57.0%, 49.0% and 48.9%

respectively.

Table 18Imports of Capital Goods (except Transport Equipment)

(c.i.f) by Main Country of Origin

Parts & Accessories for Capital Goods

In Q3/2011, imports of parts and accessories for

capital goods recorded annual growth at 8.0% and

quarterly growth at 3.7%. This state was consistent

with the dynamics in imports of capital goods (except

transport equipment). Leading imported commodities

included electrical equipment parts, general machine

parts, specialised industrial machinery, and

telecommunications spare parts. Imports of parts and

accessories for capital goods were predominantly

sourced from China (21.4%), Japan (19.4%), and

Singapore (16.7%). Imports during the quarter

were prevented from charting higher annual growth

by the negative growth in spare parts imports from

Japan.

q.t.q y.o.y

China 2,307 17.3 -13.0 31.9

Japan 1,584 11.9 6.0 6.9

South Korea 1,218 9.1 1.1 -6.4

Singapore 1,096 8.2 3.3 35.6

Thailand 746 5.6 -8.1 -32.3

Others 6,364 47.8 -4.5 49.8

Total 13,315 100.0 -4.1 24.6

** Very provisional figures

Country

Q3-2011**

Value

(mill USD)

Share

(%)

Growth (%)

q.t.q y.o.y

China 2,031 33.4 2.2 22.6

Japan 986 16.2 21.9 17.3

Singapore 561 9.2 54.5 49.0

South Korea 293 4.8 19.8 48.9

Thailand 254 4.2 22.8 57.0

Others 1,948 32.1 1.8 24.2

Total 6,073 100.0 9.9 26.5** Very provisional figures

Country

Q3-2011**

Value

(mill USD)

Share

(%)

Growth (%)


23/51

Table 19Imports of Parts & Accessories for Capital Goods

(c.i.f)by Main Country of Origin

Parts & Accessories for Transport Equipment

During the period under review, imports of parts

and accessories for transport equipment charted

significant annual and quarterly growth at 13.5% and

17.9%. The most important countries of origin for

these imports were Japan (35.2%), Thailand (23.6%),

China (9.2%), and Singapore (8.9%).

The leading commodity driving accelerated import

growth of this category was industrial transport

equipment.

Table 20Imports of Parts & Accessories for Transport Equipment

(c.i.f) by Major Country of Origin

Industrial Supplies (Primary)

Non-oil and gas imports in the category of primary

industrial supplies (5.2% of total non-oil and gas

imports) recorded brisk annual growth in Q3/2011 at

48.7% but negative quarterly growth at 18.2%, with

total value reaching USD1.7 billion. Products imported

in high volume comprised mainly a wide range of items

related to textiles and textile products, metal products,

and pulp & paper industries.

Among the top five countries of origin, Australia,which accounts for a 10.8% share of imports, still

charted positive growth in quarterly basis. Nevertheless,

imports from all trading partners, except the United

States, recorded strong annual growth.

Table 21Imports of Industrial Supplies (Primary) (c.i.f) by Major

Country of Origin

Oil Imports

Oil imports in Q3/2011 totaled USD9.3 billion,

down 7.6% from the previous quarter, mainly as a

result of decline in crude imports to 20.9 million barrels

from the previous 29.4 million barrels. This contraction

in oil import value came in response to increased

domestic oil production, slightly lower consumption of

oil-based fuels, and the downward movement in oil

prices.

Imports of oil were used as feedstock for the

Cilacap, Balongan, and Balikpapan refineries, the

major installations supplying domestic fuel needs. The

imported petroleum consists of ALC (Arab Light

Crude) and Nile Blend from the Middle East, in

addition to other crudes from Brunei, China, and

Malaysia.

q.t.q y.o.y

China 932 21.4 9.7 17.5

Japan 849 19.4 7.3 -5.6

Singapore 730 16.7 15.6 13.7

Hongkong 245 5.6 11.2 53.1

USA 244 5.6 0.3 15.3

Others 1,366 31.3 -7.4 2.4

Total 4,367 100.0 3.7 8.0** Very provisional figures

Country

Q2-2011**

Value

(mill USD)

Share

(%)

Growth (%)

q.t.q y.o.y

Japan 667 35.2 21.2 26.9

Thailand 447 23.6 31.8 27.2

China 173 9.2 7.0 32.5

Singapore 168 8.9 8.0 67.4

USA 114 6.0 47.4 72.6

Others 323 17.1 -15.8 -25.0Total 1,892 100.0 13.5 17.9** Very provisional figures

Country

Q2-2011**

Value

(mill USD)

Share

(%)

Growth (%)

q.t.q y.o.y

Australia 180 10.8 15.8 42.4

USA 164 9.8 -65.2 -7.3

China 98 5.9 -20.9 35.4

United Kingdom 78 4.7 -18.1 89.2

India 71 4.3 -69.1 145.1

Others 1,076 64.5 11.7 59.2


Country

Q2-2011**

Value(mill USD)

Share(%)

Growth (%)


24/516

Table 22Oil Imports

Table 23World Demand and Supply for Oil

National oil production increased from an average

of 0.900 million barrels in Q2/2011 to about 0.908

million barrels during the quarter under review. This

improvement followed the completion of repair worksat a number of production wells, where production had

halted. While production was up, total production and

cumulative output to September 2011 remained well

below the oil production targets established in the

Revised 2011 Budget.

Consumption of oil-based fuels, on the other

hand, eased slightly during the quarter from 113.3

million barrels to 113.1 million barrels. In analysis by

sector, the high levels of fuel consumption resulted

mainly from heavy use in the transportation sector

(60% share), followed by industry (24%), and electricity

(13%). Growing fuel consumption for electricity sector

was believed to arise from mounting demand for power

in support of domestic production amid the program

for conversion to non-oil energy sources has yet to be

fully implemented. On the other hand, household

consumption of oil-based fuels maintained steady

decline.

Chart 8Consumption of Oil-Based Fuels

2. Services Trade BalanceIn Q3/2011, trade balance in services posted a

USD2.8 billion deficit, lower than the USD3.4 billion

deficit one quarter earlier. The narrowing deficit was

largely attributable to the renewed surplus in travel

during the quarter under review generated by increased

numbers of inbound travellers to Indonesia.

Chart 9Developments in the Services Trade Balance

After posting a USD5 million deficit in the

previous period, travel recovered to book a surplus of

USD396 million. This surplus was boosted by seasonal

increase in numbers of foreign inbound travellers to

Indonesia and spending by inbound travellers during

Imports 10,098 87.9 9,335 78.1

Crude Oil 3,190 29.4 108.4 2,266 20.9 108.2

Refinery Products 6,908 58.5 118.1 7,069 57.2 123.7

Sources: BPMigas & PT Pertamina (Processed)



Q2**Details

2011*

Q3**

Value

(mil. USD)

Volume

(mbbl)

Price

($/barel)

Value

(mil. USD)

Volume

(mbbl)

Price

($/barel)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3

Oil Demand

Northern America 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.3 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.3 23.7

China 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.2 9.1 8.9 9.1 9.5 9.5

Western Europe 14.5 14.2 14.1 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.1 14.7

Others 38.4 39.4 38.7 39.6 40.3 39.5 40.4 39.3 40.5

Total Oil Demand 84.5 85.5 85.7 87.9 88.2 86.8 87.5 86.2 88.4

Oil Supply

OPEC 28.8 33.8 33.9 34.5 34.3 34.1 29.6 29.2 29.9

Non OPEC 55.5 52.1 52.1 51.9 52.9 52.3 57.9 57.2 57.9

Total Oil Supply 84.3 85.9 86.0 86.4 87.2 86.4 87.5 86.4 87.8

Net Supply - Demand -0.2 0.4 0.3 -1.5 -1.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7

Source: OPEC Oil Monthly Report - April 2011


2010 2011*Details (in mbpd) 2009

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Electricity Household Industry Transport

Million Kilolitre

Source :Pertamina(processed)*Provisionalfigures** Veryprovisional figures

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Transportation Travel Other services Services, net

million USD

* provisionalfigures** Veryprovisionalfigures


25/51

the quarter, both markedly higher than in the preceding

period. Conversely, the quarter witnessed a slight

increase in outbound travellers from Indonesia, but

lower spending by these travellers compared to one

quarter earlier, resulting in a diminished outflow of

travel services.Outbound travellers in Q3/2011 totalled 1.74

million, a rise of 0.6 percent from 1.73 million one

quarter earlier. However, this rise in outbound travellers

was not matched by higher spending on travel services,

recorded in Q3/2011 at only USD1.69 billion compared

to USD1.74 billion previously. In other developments,

numbers of inbound travellers climbed 6.8 percent in

Q3/2011 to 2.03 million from the previous level of 1.90

million. This increase was also accompanied by higher

receipts of travel services at USD2.1 billion, compared to

USD1.7 billion in the preceding period.

A number of international tourism events were

organised to attract foreign travellers to Indonesia. The

Sail to Indonesia event from Darwin, Australia, the

international kite festival in Pangandaran, West Java,

and the Sabang International Regatta 2011 were

among the important drawing cards for foreign tourist

visits to Indonesia.

As in past quarters, neighbouring countries were

again the leading source of visitors to Indonesia.

Ranking first were tourists from Singapore (22% share),

followed by Malaysia (15%), and Australia (13%).

Like before, destinations most favoured by

international visitors to Indonesia were concentrated in

three areas: Bali (38%), Jakarta (26%), and Batam

(17%). The highest numbers of inbound travellers

visiting Bali came from Australia, followed by China and

Malaysia.

On the other hand, the top destinations for

outbound travellers were all in Asia, led by Singapore

(33%), Malaysia (31%), and China (8%).

Chart 10Developments in Travel Services

In keeping with the growth in inbound travellers,

exports of passenger transportation services also

mounted during Q3/2011, reducing the transportationservices deficit from USD2.4 billion one quarter earlier

to USD2.2 billion.

3. Income AccountThe income deficit in Q3/2011 widened to USD7.6

billion from the USD6.7 billion in the previous period.

This enlarged deficit largely resulted from increased

payments of portfolio investment income in the form of

dividends and interests on securities held by non-

residents, which mounted from USD1.7 billion to

USD2.7 billion.

In addition, rising levels of foreign direct

investment and solid corporate performance generated

increased payments of profits on direct investment.

During the quarter, direct investment income payments

climbed from USD4.5 billion to USD4.9 billion.

On the other hand, interest payments on

government and corporate external loans eased in

keeping with seasonal patterns. This decline produced

a reduction in the other investment income deficit

during the quarter to USD0.3 billion from the previous

deficit of USD0.8 billion.

-1,000.00

-800.00

-600.00

-400.00

-200.00

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

2009 2010* 2011**

Inf lo ws Outf lo ws Travel Balance

million USD



26/518

Chart 11Developments in the Income Account

4. Current Transfers

The current transfers surplus in Q3/2011 remained

essentially unchanged from the previous period at

USD1.0 billion. Like before, the current transfers

surplus was bolstered by worker remittances, which

remained largely stable compared to the preceding

period in the range of USD1.7 billion.

Chart 12Workers Remittances

Migrant worker deployment in Q3/2011 reached

135 thousand persons, down 5.6% from the previous

quarter (137 thousand). This was linked to government

decision to constrict migrant worker deployment and

impose a moratorium on worker deployment to

Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, improvementwas visible in the structure of deployment, mainly in

relation to the growing numbers of workers in the

formal sector. Increased in formal sector deployment

was concentrated largely in Japan, Hong Kong, Macau,

and Kuwait. Alongside this, migrant worker deployment

in the United States and Europe remains stable,

concentrated in the services sector (hotels, health care

and cruise ships).

These developments led to a relative balance

deployment of migrant workers between the Asia-

Pacific and the Middle East and Africa regions, with

each region accounting for 49% of the total.

In consequence of deployment and returning

workers during the reporting period, the total number

of migrant workers at the end of September 2011 was

largely unchanged from end-June 2011 position of

about 4,122 thousand persons. At end-September

2011, within the Asia Pacific region, Malaysia

accounted for the largest concentration of Indonesian

migrant workers (76.7%), followed by Hong Kong

(7.3%), Taiwan (6.0%), and Singapore (5.8%). During

the same period, Saudi Arabia remained the leading

destination for Indonesian migrant workers in the

Middle East and Africa with an 83.3% share, followed

by the United Arab Emirates (7.8%), and Jordan

(3.4%).

-8,000

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Income, net Inv. Income DI Income PI Income OI Income

millionUSD


-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Indonesian Workers Foreign Workers Workers Remittance, net

million USD

* Provisionalfigures** Veryprovisionalfigures


27/51

Chart 13Composition of Migrant Workers, Asia-Pacific Region

Chart 14Composition of Migrant Workers, Middle East and Africa

Malaysia,76.7%

Singapore,5.8%

Brunei,1.1%

Hongkong,7.3%

Taiwan,6.0% SouthKorea,1.2% Japan,1.0% Others,0.8%

Source :MinistryofManpowerandTransmigration,BNP2TKI

SaudiArabia,83.3%

UAE,7.8%Kuwait,0.9%Bahrain,0.6%

Qatar,1.9%Oman,1.1% Jordan,3.4% Others,0.9%

Source:MinistryofManpower andTransmigration,BNP2TKI


28/510



29/51

The capital and financial account came under

pressure during Q3/2011 with a deficit recorded at

USD3.4 billion, a switch from a USD13.1 billion surplus

in the previous quarter. This deficit resulted from large

outflows of foreign capital from the Indonesian stock

market and government bond market triggered by high

uncertainties in advanced economies over the European

debt crisis and weakening of the United States

economy, in addition to the large numbers of non-resident held Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBIs) maturing

during the period under review.

Deficit pressure also came from the other

investment transactions, mainly due to renewed

offshore placements by domestic banks linked to the

robust level of exports and in anticipation of customer

demand for foreign currencies. In other developments,

the strong condition of Indonesias economic

fundamentals and positive investment prospects

continued to attract inflows of foreign direct investment

(FDI).

Chart 15Developments in the Capital and Financial Account

1. Direct InvestmentAmid unfavorable external conditions, direct

investment remained solid with net FDI inflows at

USD3.7 billion. Bolstering this circumstance was an

encouraging investment climate and the outlook for

strong domestic economic fundamentals that preserved

investors optimism on keeping invest their capital in

Indonesia.

Improved domestic investment climate was

reflected in the results of the Business Survey (SKDU),

which indicates steady expansion in investment value,

especially in new investments. The buoyant investment

climate was also indicated in the upward trend

projected in the Statistics Indonesia business tendency

index, which rose from 105.8 to 108.5 during the

quarter.

However, FDI inflows were down from the

preceding quarter, mainly explained by significant

foreign acquisitions of domestic companies during

Q2/2011. Furthermore, net FDI inflows in the form of

intercompany loans were also lower during the quarter

due to the size of repayments on these debts in keeping

with buoyant corporate financial performance. In

annual figures, inflows of FDI grew by 30.1% (y.o.y).

In other developments, domestic investors

responded to heightened risks and uncertainties in the

global economy by exercising greater caution in

investing in other nations. Reflecting this was the drop

in outflows of direct investment abroad from USD2.6

billion in Q2/2011 to USD1.4 billion during the quarter

under review. In response to these conditions, net

-6,000-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Direct Investment Portfolio Investment

Other Investment Cap. & Fin. Account

Millions USD

* provisional figures** very provisional figures

CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT


30/512

investment inflows during the period under review

came to USD2.4 billion, down from one quarter before

(USD3.5 billion).

Chart 16Developments in Direct Investment

In analysis by sector, manufacturing and mining

represented the main contributions to FDI inflows

during Q3/2011, followed by trade. The potential for

oil and commodity prices to linger at high levels is

believed to have offered investors incentive to place

capital in the two sectors.

Chart 17FDI by Economic Sector

In disaggregation by country of investment origin,

Japan and ASEAN were again the leading contributors

to rising inflows of FDI during Q3/2011. These nations

accounted for an 84.2% share of total FDI during the

period under review.

Chart 18FDI by Country of Origin

The positive developments in FDI were consistent

with the data on realised FDI published by the

Investment Coordinating Board (BPKM). Q3/2011 data

released by BKPM placed Singapore as the leading

country of origin in total realised investment at USD1.3

billion, followed by Japan with investment at USD0.3

billion.

2. Portfolio InvestmentIntensified uncertainty over resolution of the

European debt crisis and the slowdown in the United

States economy bore down heavily on portfolio

investment performance during Q3/2011. Net portfolio

investment booked a USD4.7 billion deficit that

contrasted with the surplus in the previous quarter at

USD5.5 billion. This deficit arose largely because of a

rush of foreign portfolio capital exiting investments in

stocks and public sector securities.

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

DI Abroad FDI Direct Investment

Million USD

* provisional figures

**very provisional f igures

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Agriculture,

Fishery&Forestry

Mining &

Quarriying

Man uf ac tu ri n g Con st ruc ti on F in an cial

Intermediaries(incl. Insurance)

Trade/Commerce Others (incl.

Services,Properties)

Million USD

Q1-11* Q2-11* Q3-11**


** very provisional figures

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

Japan USA Europe EmergingMarkets of

Asia (includingChina)

ASEAN OtherCountries

Million USD

Q1-11** Q2-11* Q3-11**


** very provisional figures


31/51

Chart 19

Developments in Portfolio Investment

Portfolio investment liabilities of public sector

recorded a USD4.3 billion deficit in Q3/2011 in contrast

to the USD3.0 billion surplus in the previous quarter.This deficit resulted mainly from outflows of some

portion of foreign capital previously held in Indonesian

government bonds and the high volume of non-

resident held SBIs that came due in the reporting

quarter.

These outflows of foreign portfolio capital reduced

the foreign-held position in Indonesian government

bonds by USD2.0 billion at end-September 2011, from

the previous USD25.3 billion to USD23.3 billion. Thisreversal took place mainly during September 2011, and

especially in the last week of the month, when foreign

investors engaged in massive selling of Indonesian

government bonds worth USD3.2 billion, well in excess

of the bonds released during the global financial crisis

of October 2008 (USD1.3 billion).

Alongside this, foreign holdings in SBIs also fell

from USD7.2 billion to USD4.6 billion at the end of

September 2011. Influencing this was not only the

volume of SBIs reaching maturity during the quarter,

but also diminished inflows of capital from non-

residents related to the introduction of the 6-month

holding period. Accordingly, the proportion of foreign-

owned SBIs contracted from 33.1% to 27.4%.

Chart 20Changes in Foreigner Holdings of SBIs and IndonesianGovernment Securities

Improvements in investment environment in

Indonesia underpinned the decision by the Japan

Credit Rating Agency in August 2011 to affirm

Indonesia's rating for foreign currency long-term

senior debt at BBB- and local currency long-term

senior debt at BBB with a stable outlook for both

ratings. This rating affirmation reflects the outlook

for sustainable growth in the domestic economy

bolstered by solid domestic demand, reductions in

public debt burden achieved through prudent fiscal

management, and Indonesia's economic resilience to

external shocks following more robust accumulation

of international reserves and strengthened external

debt management capacity. Nonetheless, Indonesias

sound fundamental has yet been able to withstand

capital flowing out into the save haven portfolio

investment.

-5,000

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Portfol io Investment, assets Portfol io investment, l iabi li ties Portfol io investment, net

MillionsUSD


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Sep OctNovDecJan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDecJanFeb MarAprMayJun JulAgustSep

2009 2010 2011

Billion USD

SUN F orei gn Ownershi p SBI F orei gn O wnership


32/514

Table 24Developments in Indonesia's Sovereign Rating

Negative sentiment due to uncertainty in the

global financial market spread to the emerging

economies, including Indonesia, causing investment risk

premium to increase, as reflected from widening yield

spread between Indonesia government bonds and

US T-Notes in the month of July to September 2011.

Chart 21Yield on Indonesia Global Bonds

and US T-Notes

Concerning yields, the rupiah retained its

competitive edge over other countries in the region, as

reflected in relatively high uncovered interest parity (UIP)

at 5.47%.

Despite escalating risks in most countries in the

region related to the global economic slowdown, the

rupiah retains considerable attraction for investment.

The trend in CIP (Covered Interest Parity) remains

positive, with this indicator reaching 2.51% at the end

of the quarter.

Comparatively high yields were also visible in

interest rates offered for 9-month tenor SBIs at

6.8%.

Chart 22Developments in SBI Rates

In the private sector, negative sentiment fuelled by

the woes of global financial markets bore down on the

Indonesian stock market. In response to the global

financial market turmoil, foreign investors switched to

rebalancing their portfolios on the domestic financial

market, resulting in net outflows from foreigner-held

stocks totalling USD1.1 billion in contrast to the

previous quarter's net inflows of USD0.8 billion.

The foreign investor response in curbing theirexposure on emerging markets followed by

depreciation in the rupiah resulted with losses in the

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). By the end of Q3/2011,

the JCI had plunged 8.7% to 3,549.

Chart 23Foreigner Transactions on the IDX and JCI

December 23, 2008 Ba3* July 26, 2006 BB- January 27, 2005 BB-

June 11, 2009 Ba3*** November 7, 2008 BB-* February 14,2008 BB

Septembe r 16, 2009 Ba2 Oc tobe r 23, 2009 BB-*** Janua ry 21, 2009 BB*

June 21, 2010 Ba2*** March 12, 2010 BB January 25, 2010 BB+

January 17, 2011 Ba1 April 8, 2011 BB+ February 24, 2011 BB+***

October 12, 2006 BB- September 25, 2008 BB*

October 31, 2007 BB+ February 5, 2009 BB**

January , 2009 BB+* July 7, 2009 BB+

October 7, 2009 BB+* July 13, 2010 BBB-

October 14, 2010 BB+*** August 24, 2011 BBB-** rating affirmation

** outlook revised from positive to stable

*** outlook revised from stable to positive

Note: Foreign Currency Long Term Debt

Rating and Investment

Information (R&I)

Moody's

Japan Credit Rating Agency

Standard & Poor's Fitch

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

JanFeb Mar AprMei Jun Jul AgsSep Okt NovDes JanFebMar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agts Sep

2010 2011

Yield Global Bond Indo'15 US: Treasury Securities Yield: 10 years

%%

6

7

8

9

10

11

JanFebMarAprMayJun JulA ugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun JulAu gSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun JulAgustSep

2009 2010 2011

%

SBI 1 month SBI 3 month SBI 6 month SBI 9 month

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600

4,000

-1,000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nop Des Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2010 2011

Composite IndexMillion USD

Foreign Net Composite Index

Source : IDX


33/51

The bearish turn in the JCI was consistent with

stock index movement in other countries in the region,

which also came under pressure from mounting

external risks.

Chart 24Developments in ASEAN Stock Market Indices

The deteriorating performance of the JCI was

explained largely by selling pressure in the mining

sector, which sustained 23.6% correction. This

downturn was partially triggered by the effect of

expectations of price correction in mining and oil

commodities in line with forecasts of shrinking world

demand. Even so, shares in other sectors, including

consumption and multifarious industries, booked gains

of 2.0% and 0.1%. Key to the positive performance in

the two sectors was stable growth in national

consumption and solid financial condition reported by

stock exchange-listed companies.

Despite the pressure on the market, five

companies went public in initial public offerings (IPOs)

during the quarter. In an opposite move, one company,

Dynaplast Tbk, voluntarily delisted after completion of a

tender offer that left very few shares held by the

investing public.

Resident investments in offshore portfolio assets

fell from USD0.7 billion in the preceding quarter to a

net divestiture of USD0.1 billion due to a fall in private

sector placements in offshore investment instruments

and the maturing of public sector portfolio assets

during the quarter under review.

Following these developments on the asset and

liability sides, public sector portfolio investment

recorded a net outflow of USD3.9 billion, while

private sector investment booked a USD0.8 billiondeficit.

Chart 25Portfolio Investment by Institutional Sector

3. Other InvestmentOther investment posted a deficit of USD1.1 billion

during the quarter under review, in contrast to the

previous quarter's surplus of USD4.1 billion. This deficitresulted mainly from increased offshore placements of

other investment assets by the private sector.

Chart 26Developments in Other Investment

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Mei Jun JulAgus tSep OktNopD es Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun JulAgus tSep OktNopD es Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun JulAgus tSep

2009 2010 2011

Index

STI S ingapor e J CI I ndex SET T ha il and Ph il li pi nes I ndex ( PCOM P) M al ay si a I ndex ( KL CI )

Source: Bloomberg

-5,000

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Public Sector Portfolio InvestmentPrivate Sector Portfolio InvestmentPortfolio Invetsment, net

Millions USD


-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Million USD

Other Investment, assets Other Investment, liabilit ies Other Investment, net

* provi sional figures** Vey pro visional figures


34/516

During Q3/2011, other investment assets sustained

a deficit (net outflows) totalling USD3.2 billion that

contrasted with the previous quarter's surplus (net

inflows) of USD2.0 billion. This increase in domestic

assets abroad originated wholly from increases in trade

credit and deposit funds of the private sector in linewith the brisk pace of goods exports.

Chart 27Other Investment Asset Transactions,

Private Sector

On the liabilities side, other investment recorded

an increased surplus, up from USD2.0 billion in the

preceding period to USD2.1 billion. The stronger surplus

was driven mainly by increased drawing on public sector

and bank external loans in tandem with diminished

payments on public sector and corporate external loans.

Chart 28Other Investment Liability Transactions

The liabilities side of public sector other

investment recorded a reduced deficit from USD1.4

billion in the previous quarter to USD0.7 billion.

The narrower deficit was explained primarily by

lower payments on official external debt, down from

USD1.8 billion in the preceding period to USD1.0billion. This was consistent with the cycle of external

debt service, which tends to peak in the second and

fourth quarters.

Conversely, drawdown of public sector external

borrowings climbed to USD0.6 billion compared to

USD0.4 billion in the previous period. This involved

both programme and project loans, with

disbursements rising from USD7 million and USD356

million in the previous period to USD119 million and

USD456 million.

During the period under review, the Government

of Indonesia signed several new loan agreements with

creditors including the International Fund for

Agricultural Development (IFAD), IBRD, and the

Government of the Russian Federation. The IFAD loan,

totalling SDR30 million, is designated for the

Smallholder Development Project in Eastern Indonesia

(SOLID). The USD 531 million loan from IBRD will fund

the Fourth National Program for Community

Empowerment in Rural Areas, while the loan from the

Russian Federation will be used by the Ministry of

Defence to procure weapons systems valued at USD4

million.

On the other side, the government has been

working to trim external debt with the use of debt

swaps. During the period under review, a debt swap

for 10 million was concluded with Germany to fund

the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria

(GFATM) project, while a USD6.4 million debt swap

with the United States will fund the Tropical Forest

Conservation Act (TFCA) project.

-6,500

-5,500

-4,500

-3,500

-2,500

-1,500

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Million USD

Loans Currency&deposits Other assets Private sector OI, assets

* provisional figures** Vey provisional figures

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Million USD

T rade c red its C ur reny & deposit s Loans , net O ther li ab ilit ies O ther in ves tment , l iabil it ies

* Provisi onal figures** Very provisional figures


35/51

Chart 29

Developments in Public Sector Foreign Loans

Other investment by the private sector recorded a

USD2.8 billion surplus, down from the surplus in the

previous quarter (USD3.4 billion). The fall in the surplus

comes mainly in response to a reduced surplus in the

currency and deposit transactions from USD1.1 billion in

the preceding period to USD0.6 billion.

Regarding disbursements of foreign loans, the

private sector recorded USD6.8 billion in drawdown

of loan funds during the quarter, compared to

USD6.7 billion one quarter earlier. This high level of

drawing on external borrowings resulted from

disbursements of USD1.6 billion to the banking

sector and USD5.2 billion to the corporate sector.

Conversely, external debt servicing by the private sectorrose from USD4.6 billion in the previous period to

USD4.7 billion.

Chart 30Developments in Private Sector Foreign Loans

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Million USD

Drawings Repayments Net* Provisional figures** Very provisional figures

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

Million USD

Drawings Repayments Net

* Provisionalfigures**Veryprovisionalfigures


36/518



37/51

Pressure on the capital and financial account

caused the Q3/2011 balance of payments to sustain a

deficit, which in turn produced a reduction in the end-

quarter international reserves position from USD119.7

billion to USD114.5 billion. At this level, the

international reserves managed by Bank Indonesia were

sufficient for 6.6 months of imports and servicing of

official external debt.

These reserves include USD107.5 billion in foreign

exchange reserves (93.9% of total international

reserves), USD3.8 billion in monetary gold (3.3%), and

USD2.8 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) (2.4%).

Chart 31Reserve Assets

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

2009 2010* 2011

million USDMonth

Reserves (RHS) Months of Imports & Official Debt Repayment

RESERVE ASSETS


38/510



39/51

Higher exports and a reduced deficit in services

contributed to an enlarged external sector contribution

to GDP formation (reflected in the ratio of net exports

of goods and services to GDP). The steadily rising

volume of exports and imports of goods and services

pointed to a growing openness in the Indonesian

economy (reflected in the ratio of exports plus imports

to GDP).

On the financial side, the contraction in the

international reserves position due to pressure on the

capital and financial account widened the debt to

reserves ratio, albeit within safe limits. However, the

debt service ratio (ratio of debt service payments to

exports) eased from the preceding quarter in line with

the seasonal trend of lower third quarter debt service

payments in comparison to Q2/2011.

Table 25Indicators of External Sustainability

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

Current Account / GDP (%)1) 2.4 1.8 1.2 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.1

Export - Import Goods and Services / GDP (%)1) 3.9 3.8 3.2 4.6 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.3 2.9 3.0

Export + Import Goods and Services / GDP (%)1) 44.0 43.5 44.5 47.1 44.7 44.7 44.3 50.1 47.8 50.0 49.5

Debt Service Ratio (DSR) (%)2) 23.3 25.0 19.8 24.6 21.2 23.2 20.3 23.7 18.0 22.5 21.2

Total Foreign Debt Position / GDP (%)3) 29.7 30.3 33.0 31.8 30.4 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.4 31.1

Short Term Foreign Debt Position / GDP (%)3) 5.3 5.6 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6

Total Foreign Debt Position / Reserve Assets (%) 275.3 267.0 269.7 261.5 251.8 240.2 224.5 210.4 198.7 186.2 195.3

Short Term Foreign Debt Position /Reserve Assets(%) 49.4 49.0 50.3 47.9 46.1 44.1 45.5 44.6 42.8 41.2 41.3

Memorandum :GDP Current Price (quarterly, mi llion USD) 113,327 131,771 146,047 153,205 163,611 175,301 186,734 188,058 196,824 212,774 221,348

GDP Current Price (annual ized, mill ion USD) 508,432 507,550 508,658 544,350 594,634 638,164 678,852 713,705 746,918 784,391 719,557

Export of Goods and Services (million USD) 27,122 31,189 34,838 39,653 38,961 41,459 44,046 50,374 50,274 56,326 58,161

Import of Goods and Services (million USD) -22,741 -26,171 -30,156 -32,542 -34,113 -36,887 -38,608 -43,929 -43,712 -50,069 -51,416

Debt Service Payments (DSP) (million USD) -6,858 -8,356 -7,387 -10,300 -8,722 -10,134 -9,448 -12,553 -9,483 -13,228 -12,896

- Government -1,786 -3,353 -1,962 -3,558 -2,053 -3,153 -2,249 -3,264 -2,385 -3,132 -2,231

- Private (include State Owned Enterprises) -5,072 -5,004 -5,425 -6,742 -6,669 -6,981 -7,199 -9,289 -7,098 -10,097 -10,665

Total Foreign Debt Position (million USD) 4) 150,965 153,741 167,989 172,871 180,834 183,329 194,349 202,413 210,080 222,816 223,676

Short Term Foreign Debt Position (million USD) 4) 27,079 28,230 31,356 31,673 33,102 33,672 39,366 42,908 45,258 49,294 47,313

Reserve Assets Position (million USD) 54,840 57,576 62,287 66,105 71,823 76,321 86,551 96,207 105,709 119,655 114,503

Notes :

1) Using quarterly GDP at current price

2) Debt Service Payments divided by exports of goods & services

3) Using annualized GDP at current price (sum of GDP for f our Quarters backw ards)

4) Using external debt position provisional figures (June 2011)



2009 2011INDICATORS

2010*

INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY


40/512



41/51

INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Tabel 1 INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: SUMMARY ................. ..... 35

Tabel 2A INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: CURRENT ACCOUNT, GOODS ................ ...... 36

Tabel 2B INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: CURRENT ACCOUNT, GOODS EXPORTS BY SECTOR ................ ...... 37

Tabel 2C INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: CURRENT ACCOUNT, GOODS IMPORTS BY BROAD

ECONOMIC CATEGORIES

...................... 38

Tabel 2D INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: CURRENT ACCOUNT, SERVICES ................. ..... 39

Tabel 2E INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: CURRENT ACCOUNT, INCOME .............. ........ 40

Tabel 2F INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT TRANSFERS ................ ...... 41

Tabel 3 INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: FINANCIAL ACCOUNT, DIRECT INVESTMENT ................ ...... 41

Tabel 4 INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: FINANCIAL ACCOUNT, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT ............... ....... 42

Tabel 5 INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: FINANCIAL ACCOUNT, OTHER INVESTMENT ............... ....... 43

APPENDICES


42/514



43/51

TABLE 1INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

SUMMARY(millions of USD)

Nov ember, 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

I. Current Account 2,690 2,377 1,781 3,781 10,628 1,936 1,409 1,205 1,093 5,643 2,071 475 199A. Goods 1 6,052 7,493 6,931 10,455 30,932 6,954 6,848 7,593 9,232 30,628 8,684 9,637 9,558

- Exports 24,195 28,158 31,289 36,004 119,646 35,088 37,444 39,712 45,830 158,074 45,818 51,797 5 2,751

- Imports -18,143 -20,665 -24,358 -25,549 -88,714 -28,134 -30,596 -32,119 - 36,597 -127,447 -37,134 -42,160 -43,194

1. Non Oi l & Gas 4,883 6,033 6,282 8,362 25,560 5,812 5,881 6,605 9,097 27,395 8,628 10,551 9,142

a. Exports 20,530 23,751 25,603 29,145 99,030 28,511 30,298 32,763 37,845 129,416 37,092 42,307 42,443

b. Im ports -15,647 -17,718 -19,321 -20,783 -73,470 -22,699 -24,417 -26,158 -28,747 -102,021 -28,464 -31,756 - 33,302

2. Oil -571 -439 -2,012 -995 -4,016 -1,663 -2,140 -1,991 -2,859 -8,653 -3,439 -5,098 -4,146

a. Exports 1,798 2,394 2,938 3,660 10,790 3,556 3,840 3,749 4,547 15,691 4,856 5,000 5,189

b. Imports -2,368 -2,833 -4,950 -4,655 -14,806 -5,219 -5,980 -5,740 -7,406 -24,344 -8,295 -10,098 -9,335

3. Gas 1,740 1,899 2,661 3,088 9,388 2,805 3,107 2,980 2,994 11,886 3,495 4,184 4,562

a. Exports 1,867 2 ,013 2,748 3 ,198 9 ,826 3,022 3,306 3,201 3,438 12,968 3 ,870 4,490 5,119

b. Imports -127 -113 -87 -110 -438 -217 -200 -222 -444 -1,082 -375 -306 -557

B. Servi ces -1,672 -2,476 -2,249 -3,344 -9,741 -2,106 -2,275 -2,155 -2,788 -9,324 -2,122 -3,379 -2,812

- Exports 2,926 3,031 3,549 3,649 13,155 3,873 4,015 4,334 4,544 16,766 4,456 4,530 5,410

- Imports -4,598 -5,507 -5,798 -6

indonesia bop q32011

Documents