indo-pacific ocean environment variation and air-sea

Fangli QIAOWESTPAC Principal Investigator & FIO, MNR, China

12th Intergovernmental Session of the IOC Sub-Commission for the Western PacificManila, the Philippines, 2-5 April 2019

Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interaction (IPOVAI)

Progress and outputs (May 2017- April 2019)Workplan ( May 2019-April 2021)

Project Objectives

p Get new findings on air-sea interaction through in-situ observation by considering surface wave;

pImprove our scientific understanding on the role of surface wave in air-sea interaction in the Indo-Pacific Oceans, and get new parameterization on air-sea fluxes especially for high wind conditions;

p Improve the prediction ability of typhoon intensity and Asian monsoon system.

Steering Committee

p Dr. Fangli Qiao, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Chinap Dr. Dake Chen, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Chinap Dr. Alexander V. Babanin, Swinburne University of Technology, Australiap Dr. Fredolin Tangang, National University of Malaysia (UKM), Malaysiap Dr. Somkiat Khokiattiwong, Phuket Marine Biological Center, Thailandp Dr. Shangping Xie, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USAp Dr. Le Dinh Mau, Institute of Oceanography, Viet Nam

2019/4/8

Multi-scale Interaction Predictability

Northern Indian Ocean

CirculationAir-Sea Interaction

Typhoon

Mechanism

Analysis

Dynam

ic Process

Mechanism and Model

Evaluation and Diagnosis of Predictability

Dynam

ic Process

Mechanism

analysis

Propagation of climate signal

Inter-Ocean Exchange

Monsoon

Western Pacific Circulation, Warm Pool

Progress and generated output

Tropical Cyclones

It has been a great challenge for accurate prediction of Typhoon/Hurricane (1990-2010)

7

Rappaport et al, 2012, BAMS

Model development: Surface wave in Typhoon model

Zhao Biao, Fangli Qiao, Sensitivity of typhoon modeling to surface waves and rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2017. DOI:10.1002/2016JC012262

Typhoon intensity Bias

A regional coupled model is developed

WRF

MASNUM-Wav POM

C-Coupler

Bv、Bottom Stress、Radiation Stress

SSC

Zhao et al, 2016, submitted o JGR

Without spray

Without spray

With spray

With spray

L-HF

S-HF

4-Nov 6-Nov 8-Nov 10-Nov0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Latentheatflux(Wm-2)

E0E1E2E12E123

4-Nov 6-Nov 8-Nov 10-Nov

0

100

200

300

400

Sensibleheatflux(Wm-2) E0

E1E2E12E123

(a)

(c)


-1000

-500

0

500

1000

Heatfluxdifference(Wm-2)

E12 - E2E12 - E1 Landfalling


26

28

30

AreaaveragedSST(

o C)

E0E1E2E12MW_IR OI SST Landfalling

(b)

(d)

Heat flux

Area averaged in the 200 km radius inner core region of typhoon


920

960

1000

Minimum

sealevelpressure(hPa)

Best trackE0

E1E2

E12E123


20

40

60

80

Maximum

windspeedat10m(ms-1 )

Best trackE0

E1E2

E12E123

(a) (b)

ECMWF coupled modelFIO-AOW

Typhoon Min/Max Best track

E0 E1 E2 E12 E123

HaiyanMSLP (hPa) 895 921.1 921.3 892.7 892.9 895.7

Max wind(m/s) 64.3 58.0 57.11 67.4 66.7 68.7

JebiMSLP (hPa) 985 975.6 977.9 969.8 975.2 976.3

Max wind(m/s)

25.7 34.8 31.1 40.1 35.7 32.1

Technical Memoranda No.794

Error of the Lowest SLP: 26.1 to 0.7 for Haiyan, and 9.4 to 8.7 for Jebi

Challenges

p The forecasting ability for weak Typhoon;p The prediction ability for Asian monsoon.

Workplan (May 2019 – April 2021)Activities Objectives Expected

outputs/outcomes1. To get high quality data for air-sea fluxes from fixed offshore platform

To support the parameterization of air-sea fluxes by considering the surface wave effects

Data sets and new air-sea fluxes parameterization

2. To test the effects of sea spray in climate model

To set up new model for Asian monsoon onset

New monsoon model

3. To test new Typhoon model at operational forecasting center(s)

To improve forecasting ability of Typhoon intensity

The increased ability on reduction and mitigation of marine hazards

4. To organize 1 workshop

To share the new progress on Typhoon model

Expected outputs and/or outcome

p Advance our understanding on the internal dynamical features of the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean natural variability, especially the role of surface wave in air-sea fluxes.

p Expected update methodology emerging from this project, which are relevant to typhoon and monsoon prediction, will become useful tools for the numerical modelers.

p The air-sea coupled models on Typhoon and monsoon will be shared among all participants.

RecommendationsA safe ocean is one of the six main streams for UN Decade of Ocean. We have provided a solution for a safe ocean by developing new Typhoon model with surface wave, FIO-AOW. The effects of surface wave on air-sea heat flux and vertical mixing in the upper ocean have been ignored for half century. To take Typhoon forecasting as an, we have found a solution for accurate forecasting on Typhoon.

新型包含海浪的台风模式

Thank you for your attention

indo-pacific ocean environment variation and air-sea

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