INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN TANZANIA AND LIKELY IMPACTS ON SOCIAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Faustine Fidelis TilyaTanzania Meteorological Agency

P O Box 3056,Dar es Salaam

ftilya@meteo.go.tz

TREND ANALYSIS OF SOME CLIMATIC VARIABLES

POSSIBLE CAUSES

IMPACTS

DATA & METHODS

Historical Climate data from TMA

Non-parametric Spearman rank correlation statistics to determine the direction and strength of existing relationship between variables (Lehmann and D’Abrera, 1998).

RAINFALL HOMOGENOUS ZONES OF TANZANIA

Bukoba

Mwanza

Musoma

Kigoma

Mpanda

Sumbawanga

Tabora

Loliondo

Engare

Lushoto

Same

TangaSingida

Dodoma

Iringa

Mbeya

SongeaTunduru Mtwara

Dar es Salaam

Mahenge

Ilonga

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

1 2

34

567

89 10

11

OBSERVED SPEARMAN RANK CORRELATION VALUES FORMARCH – MAY RAINFALL SEASON

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

longitude (°E)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

lati

tud

e (°

S)

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

REDUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING MARCH-MAY RAINFALL SEASON

Observed Frequency of Wet Spells Run during the March-May (MAM_wet) and October-December (OND_wet) Seasons at Lushoto

(slopes of Usambara Mountain)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

number of spells

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

length of spells

MAM_wet OND_wet

INCREASED SEASONAL RAINFALL

OBSERVED SPEARMAN RANK CORRELATION VALUES FOR THEOCTOBER – MAY RAINFALL SEASON

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

longitude (°E)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2la

titu

de

(°S

)

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING OCTOBER - MAY RAINFALL SEASON IN SOUTH WESTERN HIGHLANDS OF TANZANIA

Mahengey = 9.4083x + 1385.4

R2 = 0.2054

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

19

21

19

24

19

27

19

30

19

33

19

36

19

40

19

43

19

46

19

49

19

52

19

55

19

58

19

61

19

64

19

67

19

70

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

20

00

20

03

20

06

mwaka

Mv

ua

za

ms

imu

(O

kt-

Me

i) m

m

REDUCED FREQUENCY OF DRY SPELLS RUN DURING THE

OCTOBER – MAY RAINFALL SEASON IN SOUTH WESTERN HIGHLANDS OF TANZANIA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400n

um

ber o

f s

pells

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

length of spells

DECREASING TREND OF SEASONAL RAINFALL

Mpanda

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100

109

118

127

136

145

154

163

172

181

190

199

208

217

226

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Day of the Season

Pro

babi

lity

of d

ry s

pell

of a

t lea

st 7

day

s

Pr>7(1959-1983) Pr>7(1984-2007)

Risk of dry spells of at least 7 days at Mpanda in western Tanzania

Mpanda

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

11

10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91

100

109

118

127

136

145

154

163

172

181

190

199

208

217

226

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Day of the season

Pro

babi

lity

of d

ry s

pells

of a

t lea

st 1

0 da

ys

Pr>10(1959-83) Pr>10(1984-2007)

Risk of dry spells of at least 10 days at Mpanda in western Tanzania

Mpanda

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1

10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91

100

109

118

127

136

145

154

163

172

181

190

199

208

217

226

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Day of the season

Prob

abili

ty o

f at l

east

15

days

Pr>15(1959-1983) Pr>15(1984-2007)

Risk of dry spells of at least 15 days at Mpanda in western Tanzania

Mbeya Mean Minimum Temperature between June - August

y = 0.0551x - 1.22

R2 = 0.5074

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

year

Tm

in a

no

mal

y (°

C)

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Da

ys

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Mornings Evenings

INCREASED NUMBER OF DAYS ALONG TANZANIAN COAST (ZANZIBAR) WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 5

METERS PER SECOND

POSSIBLE CAUSES

DEFORESTATION PROCESSES

LAND COVER CHANGE

NATURAL CAUSES

January 18 2008 eruption at the Oldonyo Lengai , North Tanzania (Phil & Celeste Benham).

February 6, 2008 - eruptive phase of Oldonyo Lengai. Plume is estimated to rise to 12 kilometres above the ground (Gerrit Jan Plaisier and Rob Alakopsa of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines)

GREEN HOUSE GASES (IPCC REPORTS 1-4)

www.abcnews.com/sections/us/global106.html

IMPACTS

FOOD INSECURITY

AND EXACERBAT

ED MALNUTRITI

ON IN TANZANIA

19%OF TANZANIAN HEALTH SPENDING IS ON MALARIA

Due to escalating warming, Tanzania is experiencing outbreaks of malaria in highland areas where there is littleexperience with the disease. Health authorities are combining climate observations with medicalresearch to predict highland malaria outbreaks

Afternoon winds are consistently stronger than morning winds which translate into enhanced

production of damaging erosion capability including tidal effects especially during the period between

September and December.

Global Warming depleted 80% of Mount Kilimanjaro Glaciers projected to be exhausted

by 2020 (Lonnie Thompson)

Javed Jafferji

40 feet

Gross Poverty

AHSANTE SANA