Indicators for SMR Deployment

and Economic Issues

Workshop on SMR Safety and Licensing Hammamet, Tunisia 12-15 December, 2017 David Shropshire IAEA Department of Nuclear Energy Planning & Economic Studies Section (PESS)

Agenda

• Energy Planning (SMRs)

• SMR Deployment and Economics

• Deployment Indicators for SMR adoption

• Prospects & Impediments

• Economics and Competitiveness

• Infrastructure Differences

• Summary

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Feedback provided to IAEA

“IAEA Member States can benefit from having tools

to help them assess the viability of using SMRs.”

“The conditions needed to support deployment of

SMRs are very similar to large NPPs. However,

discrimination is needed to define where SMRs are

unique to large plants and where they also fully

consider infrastructure and life-cycle requirements.”

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What sets SMRs apart from large NPPs?

Large Reactors (>700MWe) SMRs (<700MWe)

Slow to Deploy

Faster Construction

(factory produced modules)

Expensive to Build Smaller Capital Layout

(stagger construction)

Large Capacity

Small to Medium Capacity

(replace high-C plants)

Baseload Power

More Flexible Power

(demand-follow)

Electric Only Diverse applications, Non-Electric

(desalination, process heat)

Large EPZ Smaller EPZ allowing new siting

opportunities 4

IAEA is working to increase service to

Member States (MS) on SMRs

• Support MS through capacity building: • Economic Analysis

• Energy Planning Tools (MESSAGE)

• Nuclear Energy Projections (RDS#1)

• Nuclear Newcomer Feasibility Studies (F/S).

• Stay abreast of information and development related to demands for SMRs.

• Provide guidance to MS: 1) considering or embarking to use nuclear energy or; 2) expand nuclear capabilities using SMRs.

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IAEA has tools to help MS determine the

deployment potential for SMRs

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

TW

h

biomass

geoth

hydro

nuclear

gas

diesel

fuel oil

coal

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OUTPUT

MESSAGE

INPUT

Energy system

structure (including

vintage of plant and

equipment)

Base year energy

flows and prices

Energy demand

projections (MAED)

Technology and

resource options &

their techno-economic

performance profiles

Technical and

policy constraints

● Primary and final

energy mix

● Emissions and

waste streams

● Health and

environmental

impacts

(externalities)

● Resource use

● Land use

● Import dependence

● Investment

requirements

MESSAGE can identify potential shares for SMRs

in the energy mix Electricity Generation

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1500

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3500

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4500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Yr

GW

yr

FR/Electricity

MOXLWR/Electricity

AHWR/Electricity

HWR/Electricity

ALWRUOX/Electricity

LWRUOX/Electricity

Electricity Generation

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1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Yr

GW

yr

add/Electricity

FR/Electricity

MOXLWR/Electricity

AHWR/Electricity

HWR/Electricity

ALWRUOX/Electricity

LWRUOX/Electricity

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Example

Case – 1 Example

Case - 2

Newcomer’s could evaluate SMRs as part

of IAEA’s Milestone Approach

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Role for

SMR’s??

SMR Deployment Indicators

• Purpose: Identify country conditions

generally favorable for using nuclear

power, and broad indicators for

deployment of SMRs

Deployment Indicators created to support

SMR Capacity Development in MS

Actions Measurements

Develop Methodology Quantifiable and objective, flexible

and extensible

Evaluate and select indicators

conducive to SMR deployment

Transparent, distinctive measures,

with broad applicable to nuclear

power and unique focus on SMRs

Identify and collect data Trusted and reliable sources, data

readily available

Create example use-cases Broad coverage of potential

applications

Define a process for country level

self-assessment

Flexible with adaptability to address

specific country needs

Develop Methodology Quantifiable and objective, flexible

and extensible 10

General Categories of Indicators

1. National Energy Demands

2. SMR Energy Demands

3. Financial/Economic

4. Physical Infrastructure

5. Climate Change

6. Energy Security

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Categories and Indicators

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National

Energy

Demands

SMR

Energy

Demands

Financial/

Economic

Sufficiency

Physical

Infrastructure

Sufficiency

Climate

Change

Motivation

Energy

Security

Motivation

Growth of

Economic

Activity

Dispersed

(Rural)

Energy

Ability to

Support New

Investments

Electric Grid

Capacity

Reduce Fossil

Fuel-Energy

Consumption

Reduce

Energy

Imports

Growth Rate

of Primary

Energy

Consumption

Co-

Generation

Openness to

International

Trade

Infrastructure

Conditions

Reduce CO2

Emissions per

Capita

Utilize

Domestic

Uranium

Resources

Per Capita

Energy

Consumption

Energy

Intensive

Industries

Fitness for

Investment

Land

Availability

Achieve NDC

Carbon

Reduction

Goals

Balance

Intermittent

Renewables

Indicators were selected that provide distinctive

measures (avoiding duplication)

Further Views on Baseline Study helps us

to narrow the focus

• Potential Roles for Deployment in Developing Countries

• Remote and niche applications (<300 MWe)

• Support limited-time energy demands

• Cogenerate electricity and heat for municipal and industrial applications

• Identify new applications and performance characteristics needing assessed from licensing and regulatory viewpoint.

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Key indicators for deploying SMRs

• Grid Compatibility

• Trans. losses, quality, remote locations, scaling

• Energy-Economics-Environment

• Growing market demand, energy stability and environment valued in prices

• Nuclear experience

• RR programs, country agreements (BOO-T)

• Energy Security and Reliability

• Import dependence, high reliability needed

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Prospects

• SMRs could be competitive with other energy

sources to supply electricity and steam to size-

appropriate industrial applications

• Advantageous to show that SMRs can be flexibly

used to support multiple purposes.

• SMRs could be used in countries lacking other

energy resources

• Transportable SMRs could open new markets.

• Potential for regional power partnerships

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Impediments

• Large NPPs are more economical for

desalination/district heating at large scale.

• Multi-module SMR are less likely to be

competitive with large NPP on price/unit.

• Potential siting issues when placing reactor

in proximity to industrial complex.

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Economic Competitiveness

• OECD Countries:

Reduced competiveness - more energy

choices and trading opportunities, subsidized

renewables, but less so for nuclear.

Increased competitiveness: - existing nuclear

infrastructure (regulators, etc.), SMR exports

scale production and reduce costs, provides

low-carbon means to meet NDC goals.

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Economic Competitiveness

• Developing/Newcomer Countries:

Reduced competiveness – High initial cost hurtle, domestic energy needs more quickly met by domestic fossil energy.

Increased competitiveness: - Modular capacity additions could support fast energy growth, SMRs provide competitive alternative to imported energy while providing energy security.

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Infrastructure Simplifications

• Fuel supply and take back could simplify

waste disposition requirements

• Plug and play reactors limit need for

domestic supply chain

• SMRs could avoid need for grid upgrades

and help reduce infrastructure needed to

support renewables

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Summary

• IAEA is engaged in extending energy capacity building to better account for the unique capabilities of SMRs.

• Feedback on the SMR Indicators help IAEA better understand how SMRs can meet country needs.

• IAEA works to enhance the ability of Member States to assess the deployment potential for SMRs.

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21 For inquiries, please contact:

David Shropshire <D.Shropshire@iaea.org>

… Thank you for your attention.

SMR Deployment Cases

Variety of conditions under which countries may

choose to deploy SMRs.

• Emerging Industrialized Economy, Large Land Area

• Emerging Industrialized Economy, Small Land Area

• Highly-Developed Infrastructure Economy

• Rapid Growth Economy

• Desalination

• SMR Vendor Country

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Power-sharing arrangements are possible, but

can be particularly complex

• Less experienced partners would need to

develop requisite expertise or partner with a

more experienced country

• Some Issues: financing, lending

prerequisites, changes to national laws to

comply with international treaties, global

safety and security standards.

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