indicators for monitoring and evaluating adaptation at a national level the uk’s experience jon...
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Indicators for Monitoring and Evaluating Adaptation at a National Level
The UK’s Experience
Jon Elliott – Science Lead, Climate Change Adaptation8th EIONET Workshop, 24th June 2014
The UK’s Nation System
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Adaptation Lead Mitigation Lead
Climate Services
Delivery
Climate Change Act - Deliverables
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Climate Change Risk Assessment – CCRA• Delivered every 5 years• Consider the highest impact risks and opportunities for the UK
National Adaptation Programme – NAP• Delivered every 5 years• Deals with the risks and opportunities laid out in the CCRA• Prioritised, risk based approach• Sets a number of ‘actions’ required to address risks• Shared responsibility across government (local and national) as well as
business and civil society
Adaptation Reporting Power – ARP• Gives the Secretary of State the power to require certain
organisations to report on the major risks and their responses to these risks as well as progress they have made
• Organisation’s responses feed into the CCRA
Timeline – The 5 year Cycle
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Indicators
The National Adaptation Programme
• The NAP has six chapters that broadly follow the themes in the CCRA: – Built environment – Infrastructure – Healthy and resilient communities – Agriculture and forestry– Natural environment, and – Business.
• In addition a seventh chapter describes the role of local government in delivering adaptation across all sectors of society.
• Each of the NAP chapters set out a vision, objectives and specific actions that will be taken to address the priority climate risks and opportunities that in the Government’s view require the most urgent attention. – A total of 31 objectives consisting of 374 specific action (125 high level).
• Responsibility for completing these actions and objectives lies with the relevant government department and key members of the private and third sectors – a mainstreamed approach.
• The Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change has a statutory duty to report to Parliament on the UK Government’s progress against these actions and objectives.
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Adaptation indicators – The Challenge
Measuring adaptation is highly challenging – Much harder than mitigation!
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Mitigation Adaptation
Targets and metrics
Clear national target: 80% by 2050Standard metric exists to measure progress across all sectors (carbon emissions)
No national-level targets.No standard metric across sectors
Uncertainty Most emission sources identified, being monitored & addressed
Uncertainty in climate projections.Not all risks understood
Context Global atmosphere Climate impacts are national, regional and local
Indicators• In 2015 the ASC will produce a formal report on the UK’s progress toward implementing
the action in the National Adaptation Programme.• This will require the development of a number of adaptation indicators, many of which
have been in development over the last four years, through the ASC’s Progress Reports.• Progress will be assessed against high priority risks as laid out in the Climate Change
Risk Assessment.• The focus will be on outcome indicators and will be categorised into the following 4
categories:– Trends in exposure– factors that may be increasing the presence of people, infrastructure, or other
economic, social, or environmental assets in places that could be adversely affected by climate impacts, such as developing in the floodplain.
– Trends in vulnerability – factors that may be increasing the propensity or predisposition of people, infrastructure, or other economic, social or environmental assets to be adversely affected by climate impacts, such as the condition of infrastructure or the state of climate-sensitive wildlife habitats.
– Adaptation actions – factors that are likely to be reducing vulnerability to climate risks or helping to take advantage of opportunities, such as the uptake of property-level flood protection measures or the sales of adaptation goods and services.
– Realised impacts – tracking over time the actual impacts of climate hazards on the UK’s economy, society and environment, such as insured losses from flooding or the proportion of transport delays caused by severe weather. Whilst there is year-on-year variability in impacts and it will be difficult to attribute single weather events to climate change, monitoring trends in impacts will serve as a useful benchmark. Over time we may be able to ascertain whether there is a link between trends in impacts and the uptake of actions to reduce risk.
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Indicators - Risk Assessment framework
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IPCC Definition of Climate Risk
Trends in exposure
Trends in vulnerability
Adaptation actions
Realised impacts
Indicators – The ASC Approach
• The ASC have identified and characterised over 250 indicators spread across the 7 NAP themes.
• Each NAP chapter has been broken down by its key risks and opportunities.• Indicators characterised into the four groups: Exposure, vulnerability,
actions and realised impacts• Data drawn from a wide range of sources:
– Government statistical publications– Trade body information– Policy responses– Consultancy research– Stakeholder engagement
• Mainly publically available• Commissioned research to plug gaps• Most indicators not originally designed for
adaptation• ASC running a consultation on indicators – views
welcome
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Indicators – how they are classified
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NAP Theme Number of indicators
Built Environment 54
Infrastructure 71
Health 34
Agriculture and Forestry 32
Natural Environment 46
Business 19
Local Authority 4
• The ~ 250 indicators are split by the four categories and specific risks and opportunities.
• Therefore, some theme-risk categories are more represented than others.
Indicators – Examples
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Built Environment (BE)
Increased flooding/severe weather Annual rate of development on flood plain Exposure
Reduced water availability Number/proportion of water companies with a low Security of Supply Index Vulnerability
Intensified urban heat island effect Area of green roofs installed Action
Infrastructure (IN)
Increased flooding/severe weather Volume of rail passengers/freight at risk of flooding/subsidence/coastal erosion Exposure
Reduced water availability Number/proportion of power stations reliant on freshwater with efficient cooling systems Action
Increased sewer overspills Number/proportion of water company sewer assets in poor condition Vulnerability
Healthy & Resilient Communities (HCR)
Increased extreme temperatures Implementation of Heatwave Action Plan Action
Increased flooding/severe weather Local authority expenditure on emergency planning and response Action
Other climate-related health risks Levels of indoor damp/mould Vulnerability
Indicators - Examples
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Natural Environment (NE)
Changes to climate space Area of terrestrial Priority Habitat being created/restored per year Action
Reduction in ecosystem goods and services
Proportion/area of degraded deep peat habitats being restored Action
Reduced water availability/quality Levels of nutrient enrichment in freshwater habitats Vulnerability
Business (BUS)
Sales of adaptation goods and services
Value of exports of adaptation goods and services per year Opportunity
Increased flooding/severe weather
Proportion/number of businesses at risk signing-up to Flood Warnings Action
Reduced water availability Losses to businesses from reduced water availability ImpactDisruption to supply chains Proportion of UK-based companies with supply chains
reliant on countries at high risk from climate change Exposure
Local Government (LG) Various priority risks Proportion of local authorities who have signed up to Climate Local and/or the Cities Commitment Action
Agriculture & Forestry (AF)
Potential for new crops/increased yields Investment in research into new crops/yields OpportunityReduced water availability/increased aridity
Proportion of abstraction for irrigation from catchments at risk of water scarcity Exposure
Reduced soil productivity Proportion/area of Best and Most Versatile agricultural land losing soil carbon Vulnerability
Increased flooding/waterlogging Proportion/area of Best and Most Versatile agricultural land in areas with a high likelihood of flooding Exposure
Increased pests and pathogens Agricultural losses from pests/pathogens Impact
Next steps and contacts
• ASC to publish 2014 progress report on July 9th
– Focus for this year is infrastructure , business, health and emergency planning (‘Adapting to Climate Change: climate risks to the economy and well-being’)
• Consultation on indicators to be launched to gather feedback on the ASC’s indicators as defined so far. – Identify any gaps
• Statutory report on the NAP to be delivered next year (July 2015).
• For further information on indicators and the Adaptation Sub Committee please contact Dave Thompson:
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GUIDED QUESTIONSDiscussion Section
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Question 1
– What are the key needs and policy demands for monitoring and evaluation on adaptation and related indicators at national level?
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Question 2
– What is currently available at national level?
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Question 3
What are the main developments?
– What happens if or when data and indicators do not exist?
– What innovative solutions can be found?
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Question 4
– How can countries learn from other experiences?
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