indicators

22
Accumulation Distribution Line : A momentum indicator that attempts to gauge supply and demand by determining whether investors are generally “accumulating”(buying) or “distributing” (selling) a certain stock by identifying divergences between stock price and volume flow. It is calculated using following formula: Acc/Dist = ((close low) (high close)) / (high low)* period’s volume. For example, many up days occurring with high volume in a downtrend could signal that the demand for the underlying is starting to increase. In practice, this indicator is used to find situations in which the indicator is heading in the opposite direction as the price. Once this divergence has been identified, the trader will wait to confirm the reversal and make his or her transaction. Advance /Decline Ratio : A market breadth indicator used in technical analysis to compare the number of stocks that closed higher with the number of stocks that closed lower than their previous days closing prices. To calculate the advance/decline ratio, divide the number of advancing shares by the number of declining shares. The A/D ratio can be calculated for various time periods, such as one day , one week or one month. Investors can compare the moving average of the A/D ratio to the performance of a market index such as NYSE or Nasdaq to see whether overall market performance is being driven by a minority of companies. This comparison can provide perspective on the cause of an apparent rally or selloff. Also, a low A/D ratio can indicate an oversold market, while a high A/D ratio can indicate an overbought market. Thus, the A/D ratio can provide a signal that the market is about change directions.

Upload: manda-satyanarayana-reddy

Post on 11-Nov-2015

7 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

a great guide for the people who want to test with the patterns and scanners in technical analysis software, why a they have to use it

TRANSCRIPT

  • Accumulation Distribution Line: A momentum indicator that attempts to gauge supply and demand by determining whether investors are generally accumulating(buying) or distributing (selling) a certain stock by identifying divergences between stock price and volumeflow.Itiscalculatedusingfollowingformula:Acc/Dist=((closelow)(highclose))/(highlow)*periodsvolume.

    For example, many up days occurring with high volume in a downtrend could signal that the demand for the underlying is starting to increase. In practice, this indicator is used to find situations in which the indicator is heading in the opposite direction as the price. Once this divergence has been identified, the trader will wait to confirm the reversal and make his or her transaction.Advance /Decline Ratio : A market breadth indicator used in technical analysis to compare the number of stocks that closed higher with the number of stocks that closed lower than their previous days closing prices. To calculate the advance/decline ratio, divide the number of advancing shares by the number of declining shares. The A/D ratio can be calculated for varioustimeperiods,suchasoneday,oneweekoronemonth.Investors can compare the moving average of the A/D ratio to the performance of a market index such as NYSE or Nasdaq to see whether overall market performance is being driven by a minority of companies. This comparison can provide perspective on the cause of an apparent rally or selloff. Also, a low A/D ratio can indicate an oversold market, while a high A/D ratio can indicate an overbought market. Thus, the A/D ratio can provide a signal that the marketisaboutchangedirections.

  • Arms Index TRIN : A technical analysis indicator that compares advancing and declining stock issues and trading volume as an indicator of overall market sentiment. The arms index or TRIN (TRaders INdex), is used as a predictor of future price movements in the market primarilyonanintradaybasis.TheArmsindexiscalculatedasfollows:TRIN:(advancingissues/decliningissues)(volumeofadvancingissues/volumeofdecliningissues)An Arms index value above one is bearish, a value below one is bullish and a value of one indicates a balanced market. Traders look not only at the value of the index, but also at how it changes throughout the data. Traders look for extremes in the index value for signs that the marketmaysoonchangedirections.Aroon Indicator : A technical indicator used for identifying trends in an underlying security and the likelihood that the trends will reverse. It is made up of two lines : one line is called Aroon up, which measures the strength of the uptrend, and the other line is called Aroon down, which measures the downtrend. The indicator reports the time it is taking for the price to reach, from a starting point, the highest and lowest points over a given time period, each reportedasapercentageoftotaltime.

    Both the Aroon up and the Aroon down fluctuate between zero and 100, with values close to 100 indicating a strong trend, and zero indicating a weak trend. The lower the Aroon up, the weaker the uptrend and the stronger the downtrend, and vice versa. The main assumption underlying this indicator is that stocks price will close at records highs in an uptrend, and recordlowsinadowntrend.This indicator is very similar to the directional movement index (DMI), which is also a very popularindicatorusedtomeasurethestrengthofagiventrend.

  • Average Directional Index : The average directional index (ADX) is a trend indicator used to measure the strength and momentum of an existing trend. This indicators main focus is not the direction of the trend, but with the momentum. When the ADX is above 40, the trend is considered to have a lot of directional strength either up or down, depending on the current direction of the trend. Extreme readings to the upside are considered to be quite rare compared to low reading. When the ADX indicator is below 20, the trend is considered to be weakornontrending.

    Bollinger Band : A band plotted two standard deviations away from a simple moving average.

    In this example of bollinger bands, the price of the stock is banded by an upper and lower bandalongwitha21daysimplemovingaverage.Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, bollinger bands adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands contract (move

  • closer to the average). The tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an earlyindicationthatthevolatilityisabouttoincreasesharply.This is one of the most popular technical analysis techniques. The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band,themoreoversoldthemarket.Band Envelope : A type of technical indicator typically formed by two moving averages that define upper and lower price range levels. An envelope is a technical indicator used by investors and traders to help identify extreme overbought and oversold conditions in a market. The envelopes, which typically appear overlaid on a price chart, are also useful in identifying tradingrangesforaparticulartradinginstrument.A moving average envelope calculates two moving averages using the high price and low price inputs. Both averages are calculated using price data from the same number of bars, as determined by the input length. The average of the high price is increased by a user specified percent and then plotted. The envelope inputs can be customized to suit each investors or tradersstyleandpreferences.

    While traders may interpret and apply the information in unique ways, many traders use an envelope so that a sell signal occurs when price reaches the upper band, signifying an overbought market, and a buy signal occurs when price drops to the lower band, representing an oversold market. Since a trading instruments price tends to stay within the range represented by an envelope, the theory is that prices will continue to bounce between the upperandlowerthresholds.

  • Intraday Momentum Index (IMI): A technical indicator that combines aspects of candlestick analysis with relative strength index (RSI). The intraday momentum index, or IMI, provides investors with potential buying and selling days based off of signals created on individuals days.Investors use technical indicators to estimate when a stock should be bought or sold. Technical analysis, which uses technical indicators, examines the relationship between stock price and volume over varied periods of time. Indicators, such as the relative strength index and Bollinger bands, seek to identify buy and sell signals without examining a stock's fundamentals. As such, they are generally considered more useful for short term traders than longterminvestors.The intraday momentum index looks at the relationship between a stocks open and close price over the course of the day, rather than how the open / close orce varies between days. It combines some features of the relative strength index, namely the relationship between up closes and down closes and whether there is an indication that as stock is overbought or oversold, with candlestick charts. Candlestick charts for a given day contain a real body highlighting the gap between the open and close price, and price points above the height and lowcalledupperandlowershadows.Technical investors can use the IMI to anticipate when a stock is overbought . The IMI is calculated as the sum of up days divided by the sum of up days plus the sum of down days, or ISup / ( ISup + IS down). This is then multiplied by 100. If the resulting number is greater than 70 the stock is considered overbought, while a figure less than 30 means that a stock is oversold. The Investor will look at the IMI over a period of days, with 14 days being the most commontimeframetolookat.Chaikin Volatility or Chaikin Oscillator : An oscillator which measures the accumulation distribution line of the MACD. The chaikin Oscillator is calculated by subtracting a 10 day EMA from a 3 day EMA of the accumulation distribution line, and outlines the momentum impliedbytheaccumulationdistributionline.The goal of the chaikin line is to recognize moving momentum levels within the MACD, more specifically the accumulation distribution line, in hopes of being able to act on said momentum. By being able to recognize momentum, technical traders hope that the momentumisthefirststepinthedevelopmentofatrendthattheycancapitalizeupon.Chande Momentum Oscillator : It is created by calculating the difference between the sum of all recent gains and the sum of all recent losses and then dividing the result by the sum of all price movement over the period. This oscillator is similar to other momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index and the stochastic Oscillator because it is range bounded (+100and100).

  • Commodity Channel Index (CCI) : An oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when an investment vehicle has been overbought and oversold. The commodity channel index, quantifies the relationship between the assets price, a moving average (MA) of the assets price, and normal deviations (D) from that average. It is computed with the following formula.

    The CCI has seen substantial growth in popularity amongst technical investors todays traders often use the indicator to determine cyclical trends in not only commodities, but also equities andcurrencies.The CCI, when used in conjunction with other oscillators, can be a valuable tool to identify potential peaks and valleys in the assets price, and thus provide investors with reasonable evidencetoestimatechangesinthedirectionofpricemovementoftheasset.Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) : An oscillator that strips out price trends in an effort to estimate the length of price cycles from peak to peak, or trough to trough. Unlike other oscillators such as the stochastic or MACD, detrended price is not a momentum indicator. It highlights peaks and troughs in price, which are used to estimate entry and exit points in line withthehistoricalcycle.Calculation:Price(X/2+1)periodsagominusXperiodsimplemovingaveragewhereXisthenumberofperiods20or30periodsincommon.

  • The cycles are created because the indicator is displaced back in time. The chart below shows the indicator does not appear at the far right of the chart, and is therefore not a real time indicator. The historical peaks and troughs in the indicator provide approximate windows of time when it is favorable to look for entries and exits, based on other indicators or strategies.In above example, stock in Armonk, NYSE : IBM is bottoming approximately every 1.5 to 2.0 months. Upon noticing the cycle, look for buy signals that align with this time frame. Peaks in price are occurring every 1.0 to 1.5 monthslook for sell/shortening the signals that align with thecycle.Average Directional Index ADX : An indicator used in technical analysis as an objective value for the strength of the trend. ADX is nondirectional so it will quantify a trends strength regardless of whether it is up or down. ADX is usually plotted in a chart window along with two lines known as the DMI ( Directional Movement Indicators ). ADX is derived from the relationshipoftheDMIlines.

  • Analysis of ADX is a method of evaluating trend and can help traders to choose the strongest trendsandalsohowtoletprofitsrunwhenthetrendisstrong.Divergence : When the price of an asset and an indicator, index or other related asset move in opposite directions. In technical analysis, traders make transaction decisions by identifying situation of divergence, where the price of a stock and a set of relevant indicators, such as the moneyflowindex(MFI),aremovinginoppositedirections.In technical analysis, divergence is considered either positive or negative, both of which are signals of major shift in the direction of the price. Positive divergence occurs when the price of a security make a new high, but the indicator fails to do the same and instead closes lower thantheprevioushigh.

  • Donchian Channels : A moving average indicator which plots the highest and high and lowestlowoverthelastperiodtimeintervals.The Donchian Channel is a simple trend following breakout system. The signals derived from thissystemarebasedonthefollowingbasicrules:1:WhenpriceclosesabovetheDonchianChannel,buylongandcovershortpositions2:WhenpriceclosesbelowtheDonchianChannel,sellshortandliquidatelongpositions.Double Exponential Moving Average ( DEMA) : The DEMA is a calculation based on both a singleexponentialmovingaverage(EMA)andadoubleEMA.The DEMA is a fast acting moving average that is more responsive to market changes than a traditional moving average. It was developed in an attempt to create a calculation that eliminated some of the lag associated with traditional moving averages. The DEMA can be used as a stand alone indicator and can be incorporated into other technical analysis tools whoselogicarebasedonmovingaverages.Force Index : The Force Index is an oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero. It combines price movement and volume to assess the force behind price movements and spot potentialtrendchanges.Usethefollowingcalculationtoproducea1periodForceIndex.>ForceIndex(1)=[close(currentperiod)close(priorperiod)]xvolumeAlexanderEldersuggestedusinga13periodForceIndex.>ForceIndex(13)=13periodexponentialmovingaverageofForceIndex(1)The 13 period Force Index confirms short term uptrends when above zero, and confirms short term downtrends when below zero. When the Force Index Diverges with price, it indicates a trendchangebecoming.Heikin Candle or Heikin ashi Technique : A type of candlestick chart that shares many characteristics with standard candlestick charts, but differs because of the values used to create each bar. Instead of using the openhighlowclose(OHLC) bars like standard candlestickcharts,theHeikinAshitechniqueusesamodifiedformulaclose=(open+high+low+close)/4open=[open(previousbar)+close(previousbar)]/2high=max(high,open,close)low=min(low,open,close)

  • The heikin ashi technique is used by technical traders to identify a given trend more easily. Hollow candles with no lower shadows are used to signal a strong uptrend, while filled candleswithnohighershadowareusedtoidentifyastrongdowntrend.This technique should be used in combination with standard candlestick charts or other indicatorstoprovideatechnicaltradertheinformationneededtomakeaprofitabletrade.Ichimoku Cloud : a chart used in technical analysis that shows support and resistance, and momentum and trend directions for a security or investment. It is designed to provide relevant information at a glance using moving averages (tenkansen and kijun sen) to show bullish and bearish crossover points. The clouds (kumo, in japanese) are formed between spans of the average of the tenkan sen and kijun sen plotted six months ahead (senkou span B), and of themidpointofthe52weekhighandlow(senkouspanB)plottedsixmonthahead.The Ichimoku Cloud provides more data points that the standard candlestick chart. The overall trend is up when prices are above the cloud, down when prices are below the cloud and flat when they are in the cloud itself. When Senkou span A is rising above Senkou span B the trend is stronger upward, and it is typically colored green. When Senkou span B rises above Senkou span B, the trend is stronger downward and is denoted with a red colored cloud.Keltner Channel : A volatility based envelope indicator that measure the movement of stocks inrelationtoanupperandlowermovingaverageband.This indicator is used by sophisticated investors to predict the trend of the market. An overbuy occurs when prices move above the upper band, and an oversell occurs when prices move belowthelowerband.Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) : A trend following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12 day EMA. A nine day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning asatriggerforbuyandsellsignals.

  • TherearethreecommonmethodsusedtointerprettheMACD:1: Crossovers As shown in the chart above, when the MACD falls below the signal line, it is bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell. Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggest that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Many traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before entering into a position to avoid getting faked out or entering intoapositiontooearly,asshownbythefirstarrow.2: Divergence : When the security prices diverges from the MACD.It signals the end of the currenttrend.3: Dramatic rise When the MACD rises dramatically that is, the shorter moving average pulls away from the longer term moving averageit is a signal that the security is overbought andwillsoonreturntonormallevels.Traders also watch for a move above or below the zero line because this signals the position of the short term average relative to the long term average. When the MACD is above zero, the short term average is above the long term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true when the MACD is below zero. As you can see from the chart above, the zerolineoftenactsasanareaofsupportandresistancefortheindicator.McClellan Oscillator : A market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. It is primarily used for short and intermediatetermtrading.To calculate subtract a 39 day EMA (of advancing issues declining issues) from a 19 day EMA(ofadvancingissuesdecliningissues)

  • Simplified, it looks as follow : (19 Day EMA of Advances Declines) (39 Day EMA of AdvancesDeclines)Usually, a small number of stocks making large gains characterizes a weakening bull market. This gives the perception that the overall market is healthy, but in reality it isnt, as rising prices are being driven by a small number of stocks. Conversely, when a bear market is still declining, but a smaller amount of stocks are declining, an end to the bear market may be near.McClellan Summation Index : The McClellan Summation Index is a long term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellanOscillator,exceptthatitismoresuitedtomajortrends.Usually, a small number of stocks making large gains characterizes a weakening bull market. This gives the perception that the overall market is healthy, but in reality it isnt, as rising prices are being driven by a small number of stocks. Conversely, when a bear market is still declining, but a smaller amount of stocks are declining, an end to the bear market may be near.Money Flow Index (MFI) : A momentum indicator that uses a stocks price and volume to predict the reliability of the current trend. Because the Money Flow Index adds trading volume totheRelativestrengthIndex(RSI),itsometimesreferredtoasvolumeweightedRSI.Arriving at the index figure requires several steps. The developer of the Money Flow Index, suggestedusinga14dayperiodforcalculations.1:DeterminetheTypicalPriceasfollows:(high+low+close)/32:CalculatetheRawMoneyFlow:TypicalPricexVolume3: Identify the Money Flow Ratio: (14 period Positive Money Flow) / (14 period Negative MoneyFlow)

    ( Note : Positive money values are created when the typical price is greater than the previous price value. The sum of positive money over the number of periods usually 14 days isthepositivemoneyflow.Theoppositeistrueforthenegativemoneyflowvalues)4:Finally,arriveattheMoneyFlowIndex.Thisis:100[100/(1+MoneyFlowRatio)]Many traders watch for the opportunities that arise when the MFI moves in the opposite direction as the price. This divergence can often be a leading indicator of a change in the currenttrend.

  • Parabolic SAR or Parabolic indicator : A technical analysis strategy that uses a trailing stop and reverse method called SAR, or stop and reversal, to determine good exit and entry points.

    AlsoknownasParabolicStopandReverse(PSAR)In this method if the stock is trading below the parabolic SAR (PSAR) you should sell. If the stockisabovetheSARthenyoushouldbuy(orstaylong).Performance Indicator or Key Performance Indicator (KPI) : A set of quantifiable measure that a company or industry uses to gauge or compare performance in terms of meeting their strategic and operational goals. KPIs vary between companies and industries, depending on theirprioritiesorperformancecriteria.AlsoreferredtoasKeysuccessIndicators(KSI)

  • A company must establish its strategic and operational goals and then choose the KPIs which best reflect those goals. For example, if a software companys goal is to have the fastest growth in its industry, its main performance indicator may be the measure of revenue growth year on year. A companys KPIs will be stated in its annual report. Also KPIs will often be industrywidestandards,likesamestoresalesintheretailsector.Pivot : A price level established as being significant either because the market fails to penetrate it or because a sudden increase in volume accompanies a move through that price levelAs a technical indicator, the pivot price is similar to resistance or support levels. If the price is exceeded,abreakoutisexpectedtooccur.Price Volume Trend or Volume Price Trend Indicator (VPT) : A technical indicator consisting of a cumilative volumbe line that adds or subtracts a multiple of the percentage change in share price trend and current volume, depending upon their upward or downward movements.This indicator is used to determine the balance between a stocks demand and supply. The percentage change in the share price trend denotes the relative supply or demand of a particularsecurity,whilevolumeindicatestheactualsizeoftheforces.RMO : This indicator is a gauge to market direction. It is displayed as a histogram. As a bullish buy sign, we will look for the point at which the histogram shows movement crossing the oscillators zero line going upwards. If it should go down and cross the line going down, thatwouldbeoursellsignorashortsellsign.Rate of Change : The speed at which a variable changes over a specific period of time . Rate of change is often used when speaking about momentum, and it can generally be expressed as a ratio between a change in one variable relative to a corresponding change in another. Graphically,therateofchangeisrepresentedbytheslopeofaline.Rate of change is often illustrated by the Greek letter delta. Many traders pay close attention to the speed at which one variable changes relative to another. For example, option traders study the relationship between the rate of change in the price of an option relative to a small changeinthepriceoftheunderlyingasset,knownasanoptionsdelta.Automated Bond System ABS : The electronic system on the NYSE that records bids and offersforinactivelytradedbondsuntiltheyarecanceledorexecuted.Because the bid and ask prices of inactively traded bonds arent constantly changing due to demand and supply conditions, investors looking for a quote may have difficulties. By having

  • all inactive bonds electronically monitored, the NYSE is able to keep a good inventor of bond prices,justincaseaninvestorisinterestedinpurchasingthem.Relative Strength Index (RSI) : A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversoldconditionsofanasset.Itiscalculatedusingthefollowingformula:RSI=100100/(1+RS*)*WhereRS=Averageofxdaysupcloses/Averageofxdaysdowncloses

    As you can see from the chart, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that theassetmaybegettingoversoldandthereforeliketobecomeundervalued.A trader using RSI should be aware that large surges and drops in the price of an asset will affect the RSI by creating false buy or sell signals. The RSI is best used as a valuable complementtootherstockpickingtools.Stochastic Oscillator : A technical momentum indicator that compares a securitys closing price to its its price range over a given time period. The oscillators sensitivity to market movements can be reduced by adjusting the time period or by taking a moving average of the result.Thisindicatoriscalculatedwiththefollowingformula.%K=100[(CL14)/(H14L14)]C=themostrecentclosingpriceL14=thelowofthe14previoustradingsessions.

  • H14=thehighestpricetradedduringthesame14dayperiod.%D=3periodmovingaverageof%K

    The theory behind this indicator is that in an upward trending market, prices tend to close near their high, and during a downward trending market, prices tend to close near their low. Transaction signal occur when the %K crosses through a three period moving average called the%D.Stochastics RSI or StochRSI : An indicator used in technical analysis that ranges between zero and one and is created by applying the stochastic oscillator formula to a set of Relative Strength Index (RSI) values rather than standard price data. Using RSI values within the stochastic formula gives traders an idea of whether the current RSI value is overbought or oversold a measure that becomes specifically useful when the RSI value is confined betweenitssignallevelsof20and80.The StochRSI is deemed to be oversold when the value drops below 0.20, meaning the RSI value is trading at the lower end of its predefined range, and that the short term direction of underlying security may be nearing a correction. Conversely, a reading above 0.80 suggests the RSI may be reaching extreme levels and could be used to signal a pullback in the underlyingsecurity.TRIX or Triple Exponential Average : A momentum indicator used by technical traders that shows the percentage change in a triple exponentially smoothed moving average. When TRIX is applied to triple smoothing of moving averages it is designed to filter out price movements that are considered insignificant or unimportant. TRIX is also implemented by technical traders to produce signal that are similar in nature to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence(MACD).

  • TRIX has become a popular technical analysis tool to aid chartists in spotting diversion and directional cues in stock trading patterns. Although many consider TRIX to be very similar to MACD, the primary difference between the two is that TRIX outputs are smoother due to the triplesmoothingoftheexponentialmovingaverage(EMA).True Strength Index TSI : A technical momentum indicator that helps traders determine overbought and oversold conditions of a security by incorporating the short term purchasing momentum of the market with the lagging benefits of moving averages. Generally a 25 day EMA is applied to the difference between two share prices, and then a 13 day EMA is applied to the result, making the indicator more sensitive to prevailing market conditions. After the data is smoothed, some calculations are done to make the indicator fall in a range from +100 to100orfrom+1to1A signal line (7 day EMA) is usually added as it is to the moving average convergence divergence indicator to help identify reversals. In addition, values of 25 and +25, like the levels of 30 and 70 used in the relative strength index, can also be used to identify levels where a security is overbought or oversold. The true strength indicator is a variation of the relativestrengthindex.Ulcer Index UI : A technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both depth and duration of price declines. The Ulcer Index(UI) increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high, and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over 14 days, with the UI showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expectfromthehighoverthatperiod.ThegreaterthevalueoftheUI,thelongerittakesforastocktogetbacktotheformerhigh.Theindicatoriscalculatedinthreesteps:1:PercentageDrawdown=[(close14periodHighclose)/14periodhighclose]x1002:SquaredAVerage=(14periodSumofPercentageDrawdownSquared)/143:UlcerIndex:SquarerootofsquaredAverage.It is used for analyzing mutual funds, the indicator only looks at downside risk, not overall volatilitylikestandarddeviation.Which price high is used in the UI calculation is determined by adjusting the look back period. A 14 day Ulcer Index measures decline off the highest point in the last 14 days. A 50 day Ulcer index measure declines off the 50 day high. A longer lookback period provides investors with a more accurate representation of the longer term price declines they may face. A shorter termlookbackperiodprovidestradersagaugeofrecentvolatility.

  • use the Ulcer Index to compare different investment options. A lower average UI means lower drawdown risk compared to an investment with a higher average UI. Applying a moving aeragetotheUIwillshowwhichstocksandfundshavelowervolatilityoverall.Watching for spikes in UI which are beyond normal can also be used to indicate times of excessivedownsiderisk,whichinvestorsmaywishtoavoidbyexitinglongpositions.

    Ultimate Oscillator : A Technical indicator which uses the weighted average of three different time periods to reduce the volatility and false transaction signals that are associated with manyotherindicatorsthatmainlyrelyonasingletimeperiod.This is a range bound indicator, which means the value fluctuates between o and 100. Similar to the RSI, levels below 30 are deemed to be oversold, and levels above 70 are deemed to be overbought. Transaction signals are derived by finding situations where the price is going in opposite directions that the indicator. Once this divergence has been identifiedthetraderwillwaittoconfirmthetransactionbyusingothertechnicalindicators.Volatility : 1: A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between

  • return from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier thesecurity.2: A variable in option pricing formulas showing the extent to which the return of the underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the options expiration. Volatility, as expressed as a percentage coefficient within option pricing formulas, arises from daily trading activities.Howvolatilityismeasurewillaffectthevalueofthecoefficientused.

    In other words , volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk about the size of changes in a securitys value. A higher volatility means that a securitys value can potentially be spread out over a larger range of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction. A lower volatility means that a securitys value does not fluctuate dramatically, but changes in value at a steady paceoveraperiodoftime.One measure of the relative volatility of a particular stock to the market is its beta. A beta approximates the overall volatility of a securitys return against the returns of a relevant benchmark. For example, a stock with a beta value of 1.1 as historically moved 100% for every 100% move in the benchmark, based on price level. Conversely, a stock with a beta of 0.9hashistoricallymoved90%forevery100%moveintheunderlyingindex.On Balance Volume (OBV) : A momentum indicator that uses volume flow to predict changes in stock price. On Balance Volume is a metric which increases sharply without a significantchangeinthestocksprice,thepricewilleventuallyjumpupward,andviceversa.The theory behind OBV is based on the distinction between smart money namely, institutional investors and less sophisticated retail investors. As mutual funds and pension funds begin to buy into an issue that retail investors are selling , volume may increase even as the price remains relatively level. Eventually, volume drives the price upward. At that point, largerinvestorsbegintosell,andsmallerinvestorsbeginbuying.The following chart depicts OBV. If todays close is greater than yesterdays close, then today volume is added to yesterdays OBV, and is considered up volume. However, if todays close is less than yesterdays close, todays volume is subtracted from yesterdays OBV and is considereddownvolume.

  • Williams %R : In technical analysis, this is a momentum indicator measuring overbought and oversold levels, similar to a stochastic oscillator. It compares a stocks close to the highlow rangeoveracertainperiodoftime,usually14days.

    It is used to determine market entry and exit points. The Williams %R produces values from 0 to 100, a reading over 80 usually indicates a stock is oversold, while reading below 20 suggestastockisoverbought.