Ch. Patanjali Kumar, Scientist

Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Service (INCOIS), MoES

Roundtable Meetings on

Innovations in Technologies for Disaster Rescue Efforts amongst ASEM countries

& Inauguration of the Virtual Knowledge Portal (VKP) and Meeting of the 24x7 PoCs of

the EAS countries Vigyan Bhawan, New Delhi, India , December 04-05, 2014

Indian Tsunami Early Warning System

• Introduction

• Tsunami Risk Assessment

• Components of ITEWS

• Observation Network

• Tsunami Modelling

• Standard Operating Procedure

• Dissemination

• April 11, 2012

• Capacity Building

• International role as RTSP

• Future Works

DRR: Regional and International Practices Indian Tsunami Early Warning System

Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004 The worst tsunami in recorded history

on December 26, 2004

Magnitude 9.3 (second strongest earthquake ever recorded on a seismograph)

Lasted 10 minutes (longest lasting earthquake in history)

229,866 confirmed dead, which includes 42,883 missing and never accounted for

More than $7 billion dollars damage Reasons for huge loss…..

Many nations in the Indian Ocean did not even recognize the word “tsunami”

None had tsunami preparedness programs in place

Absence of a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) in India

Ignorance of the natural signs of a tsunami led to inappropriate actions

Length and Time Period

Long wave length (of several 100 km)

Periods of a few minutes to about an hour

Speed proportional to square root of water depth

500 to 1000 km per hour in Deep Ocean

About 30 km per hour near shore

Height of Tsunami Wave

Less than a metre in the Deep Ocean

Grows to Tens of meters near shore

A system of ocean gravity waves formed as a result of large-scale displacement of sea surface. Travel long distances without losing energy.

What is Tsunami???

Any impulse that causes large scale displacement of the sea surface.

Earthquakes / Landslide /Volcano eruption / Meteor Impact

Earthquakes : Not all earthquakes generate tsunamis. To generate tsunamis, earthquakes must occur underneath or near the ocean, be large and create movements in the sea-floor

Magnitude Effects Number per year

Less than 2 Not felt by humans. Recorded by instruments only Numerous

2 Felt only by the most sensitive

Suspended objects swing

> 10,00,000

3 Felt by some people.

Vibration like a passing heavy vehicle

1,00,000

4 Felt by most of the people.

Hanging objects swing. Dishes and windows rattle

and may break

12,000

5 Felt by all, people frightened 1,400

6 Panic. Buildings may suffer substantial damage 160

7-8 Widespread panic. Few buildings remain standing.

Large landslides; fissures in ground

20

8-9 Complete devastation. Ground waves ~2

Causes of Tsunami

Tsunami Risk Assessment

Historical Tsunamis in India

o 12 Apr, 1762 (BoB EQ) – 1.8 M

o 31 Dec, 1881 (Car Nicobar EQ)

o 27 Aug, 1883 (Krakatoa) – 2 M

o 26 Jun, 1941 (Andaman EQ)

o 27 Nov, 1945 (Makran EQ) – 12 M

o 26 Dec, 2004 (Sumatra EQ) – 10 M

To generate tsunami for India

o EQ Mag > 6.5

o Earthquakes under or near ocean

o Depth < 100km

o Vertical movement of the sea-floor

o Andaman-Sumatra & Makran

Makran (M8.5) Nov. 27, 1945

Car Nicobar (M7.9), Dec. 31, 1881

Sumatra (M9.3) Dec. 26, 2004

Java (M7.8) July 17, 2006

> M7

Bengkulu (M8.4) Sep 12, 2007

• If Earthquake occurs at Makran Subduction

zone, Travel Time to nearest Indian Coast

(Gujarat) are 2 to 3 hrs

• If Earthquake happens at Sumatra, travel

times to nearest coast (A&N Islands) are 20

to 30 min

• For Indian main land travel times are 2 to 3

hrs

Tsunami Risk Assessment Tsunami Travel Times & Response time

• Depending upon the Earthquake location (Makran/Andaman-Sumatra Subduction Zone) the response time for evacuation of coastal population could range between 10 min to few hours.

• As Andaman & Nicobar Islands are situated right on subduction zone the available response time is very short

Detect Large Earthquake in Tsunamigenic Zones (interconnected seismic stations)

Potential for Tsunami Travel time of initial wave

Observe change in Water level near the source (Bottom Pressure Recorders)

Confirm/Deny Tsunami

Modelling (Data base on off-shore bathymetry, topography, Model outputs, Scenarios generated in advance )

Forecast Surge height at different landfall points Extent of inundation

Monitor progress of Tsunami Wave (Coastal Radars, Tide Gauges)

Update Cancel

Tsunami Detection - The Imperatives

Tsunami Warning System Components

Tide gauge Network

Seismic Network

BPR Network

Bathymetry

Tsunami Modelling

Topography

Costal Vulnerability

TSUNAMI

WARNINGS!!!

Capacity Building

R & D

Observation Networks Communications Modelling Last mile connectivity

INMARSAT

VSAT

INSAT

GPRS

Participating Institutions

IMD, NIOT, ICMAM, SOI,

NRSC, INCOIS

MHA, NDMA, Coastal States

Detection Warnings Dissemination

Tsunami Early Warning Centre

24 x 7 operations

Heterogeneous Real-Time Data from a variety of Sensors

Data Acquisition, Display, Processing, Archival

Numerical Modeling and Decision Support

Generation of Advisories and Dissemination

Mission Critical - Infrastructure to be highly available

Seismic Network:

• More than 300 Indian and

International Seismic Stations

communicating via Satellite &

broadband links

• Autolocation of earthquake in 3 to 12

mins

Tsunami Buoy Network:

• 7 Bottom Pressure Recorders

communicating via acoustic &

Saatellite links

Tidegauge Network:

• 26 Tideguages

• Presssure, Radar & Shaft Encoders

commicating via Satellite &

GPRSblinks

HF Radar Network:

5 sets of coastal radars

communicating via VSAT and

broadband links

Observation Networks

1m contours overlaid on ortho image

Field Surveys for

Assessment of 2004

tsunami impact

TUNAMI Model set up

Inundation Modelling and

Vulnerability mapping for

Historic Earthquakes &

Worst Case Scenarios

1:25000 scale maps using

Cartosat

1:5000 scale maps using ALTM

Maps used by DMOs as

guidance

Tsunami Vulnerability Map

Inundation Modelling for Historical Events

Model Output Parameters

T1 (Time of arrival of the minimum detectable positive amplitude wave)

T2 (Time of first exceedance of the Threat Threshold)

T3 (Time of arrival of max_beach)

T4 (Time when the last exceedance of the Threat Threshold is

forecast)

• max_beach (Maximum Positive wave amplitude at the shore line)

• max_deep (Maximum positive wave amplitude in deep water

in each coastal zone)

• Depth (Depth of the water where the max_deep occurs)

Open Ocean Propagation Database

• Model Domain with 3.2 million grids

• Database of Scenarios covering both Makran and Sunda

Tsunamigenic Zones

• ~1400 unit sources each of 100 X 50 km area representing rupture

caused by EQ of M 7.5 with slip as 1m

• Depending on EQ’s location and magnitude basic unit source

open ocean propagation scenarios are either scaled up or down

• Expected Wave Arrival & Amplitude forecasts at 1800 Costal

Forecast Points (CFPs) in the Indian Ocean Coast

• CFPs are then rendered to create threat profile for Coastal

Forecast Zones (CFZs)

Travel time map Directivity Map

Threat Map EQ location map

Modelling for Operational forecasting

Threat Status

Action to be taken Dissemination to

WARNING

Public should be advised to move inland towards higher grounds. Vessels should move into deep Ocean

MoES, MHA, NDMA, NCMC, NDRF Battalions, SEOC, DEOC, Public, Media

ALERT

Public should be advised to avoid beaches and low-lying coastal areas. Vessels should move into deep Ocean

MoES, MHA, NDMA, NCMC, NDRF Battalions, SEOC, DEOC, Public, Media

WATCH No immediate action is required

MoES, MHA, NDMA, NCMC, NDRF Battalions, SEOC, DEOC, Media

THREAT PASSED

All clear determination to be made by the local authorities

MoES, MHA, NDMA, NCMC, NDRF Battalions, SEOC, DEOC, Public, Media

Standrad Operating Procedure (SOP)

Decision Support System (DSS)

Tsunami Public Bulletins

Pu

blic

Tsunami Exchange Bulletins

Bulletin-1 EQ info, Tsunamigenic

poten.

Bulletin-2, 3,4…. T1, T2, T3, T4,

Max_beach, Depth,

Obs

Bulletin-1 EQ info, Tsunamigenic

potential

Bulletin-2, 3,4…. T2,Max_beach, Obs

Final Bulletin Threat Passed

(i) Tsunami Exchange and (ii) Tsunami Public

MoES MHA

NDMA

Final Bulletin Threat Passed

WARNING

ALERT

WATCH

Threat

Passed

INCOIS

WARNING

ALERT

Threat Passed

Email

Fax

SMS

Web

GTS

National Level MHA, NDMA, MoES, NDRF Head

quarters, IMD & CWC

District Level

DROs of Srikakulam, Vizianagaram,

Visakhapatnam, East Godavari, West

Godavari, Krishna, Guntur, Prakasham,

and S.P.S Nellore

Institutional 1-10 NDRF Battalions, ALL control

rooms of A&N Islands, HQWNC,

HQENC, HQANC, HQSNC, NOIC

Tamilnadu, Gujarat, West Bengal,

NPCIL, Mumbai, Madras Atomic

Power Station, Tarapur Atomic Power

Station (1&2, 3&4), Kudankulam

Atomic Power Unit, SHAR, MRCC,

Coast Guards, Port Officers, Coastal

Industries (Reliance) Media & Public

subscriptions

State Level Principal Secretaries (Revenue) of

Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Andhra

Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa, Karnataka,

Kerala, Maharashtra, Orissa,

Tamilnadu, West Bengal,

Lakshadweep and Puducherry

International Level All 23 Indian ocean rim countries

Dissemination Modes

Bulletin Types and Dissemination

Bulletin Formats

Notification Messages are issued in text format

Bulletins are issued in both text and html formats

Graphics are made available in jpg or png format on the website

Spatial data is made available in dbf format through the ftp site

EQ Location Travel Time Map

Directivity Map Threat Status National & International

Web Bulletin

Graphics

Bulletin Formats

VSAT

Seismic Data from IMD

Tide Gauge Data from SOI

Tide Gauge Data from NIOT

INSAT

• MSS for 2-way communication

• DRT for 1-way communication

Broadband Internet

• International Seismic Data

• International Tide Gauge & BPR Data

• Website & SMS for Warning Dissemination

VPNDMS (Ext C Band - Edusat)

• Warning Dissemination to MHA & State EOCs

Phone & Fax

• Receiving Messages from PTWC & JMA

• Warning Dissemination

PFZ-EDB (Public)

Satellite Phone (Emergency)

64 CPU (2 x 32 CPU) IBM P590 P5 based Server

Consolidation System

HPC has been successfully installed and put in

operations for ocean modeling activities (7.2

Tera Flops, 512 CPUs, 2TB memory, 166TB

Storage)

Total of about 500 TB FC and SATA/SAS Disk

based Storage Solution

Additional 100TB only for the storage of

seismic and GNSS data

www.tsunami.incois.gov.in

Information and Communication Technology

14:08 Time line

14:16

14:20

15:21

Earthquake

Bulletin - 1

Bulletin - 2

Bulletin - 3

Bulletin - 4 15:48

Earthquake 16:13

Bulletin - 1

8.2 M

8.5 M

16:19

Bulletin - 2 16:46 Bulletin - 5 17:02

Warning for Indira

Point, Komatra &

Katchal Island and

Car Nicobar

Bulletin - 3 17:08

Bulletin - 4 17:33

Observed water

level 1.0 M change

at Meulaboh & 0.2

M at Nicobar

Bulletin - 6 18:08 ALL

CLEAR 18:29

Bulletin - 5 ALL CLEAR

Alert for Indira

Point, Komatra &

Katchal Island and

Car Nicobar

Observed water

level 0.2M change

at Meulaboh

8.5 M Earthquake on 11 April 2012

Workshops, seminars, Trainings (national & international), Exhibitions

Capacity building to public (especially in near-source vulnerable coastal areas) on responding to earthquakes & tsunami warnings

Capacity building to coastal administrators, disaster management officials and public on SOPs, use of tsunami inundation maps, etc.

Include disaster awareness and response related topics in primary, secondary and high school curriculum.

Capacity Building Education and Training

Tsunami Preparedness

Material

Tsunami Warning

Centre operations

Handbook & User

guide

Tsunami awareness

films for

Administrators,

General public and

Children

Tsunami awareness

& preparedness

posters

Leaflets in mutliple

local languages

Education material for Tsunami Preparedness

Communication Tests

1. March 16, 2011 (NTWCs)

2. June 15, 2011 (NTWCs & National DMOs)

3. September 14, 2011 (NTWCs & National DMOs)

4. December 14, 2011 (NTWCs)

5. June 13, 2012 (NTWCs)

6. December 12, 2012 (NTWCs)

7. June 13, 2013 (NTWCs & National DMOs)

8. December 11, 2013 (NTWCs)

9. June 11, 2014 (NTWCs)

Modes of Communication

• International: Email, Fax, GTS, SMS, Web

• National: Email, Fax, SMS, Web

Performance till now:

• Compared 8 COMMs test results

• Email the most significant mode of communication

Regular communication tests

16 Mar 2011 15 Jun 2011 14 Sep 2011 14 Dec 2011 13 Jun 2012 12 Dec 2012 12 Jun 2013 11 Dec 2013

Mode

No. of

NTWCs

Received

Time

Delay

(Mins)

No. of

NTWCs

Received

Time

Delay

(Mins)

No. of

NTWCs

Received

Time

Delay

(Mins)

No. of

NTWCs

Received

Time

Delay

(Mins)

No. of

NTWCs

Received

Time

Delay

(Mins)

No. of

NTWCs

Received

Time

Delay

(Mins)

No. of

NTWCs

Received

Time

Delay

(Mins)

No. of

NTWCs

Received

Time

Delay

(Mins)

Email 19/23 0 – 11 20/22 0 – 48 22/23 0 – 15 17/19 0 – 9 18/21 0 – 2 15/17 0 – 4 19/20 0-2 21/21 0 - 2

Fax 7/23 0 – 61 10/22 0 – 91 12/23 0 – 93 13/19 0 – 35 12/21 0 – 35 6/17 0 – 32 15/20 0- 30 18/21 0- 38

GTS 12/23 0 – 5 17/22 0 – 17 17/23 0 – 26 16/19 0 – 25 15/21 0 – 7 12/17 0 – 14 14/20 0 - 3 17/21 0 - 3

SMS -- -- -- -- 13/23 0 – 13 15/19 0 – 23 15/21 0 – 1 14/17 0 – 3 14/20 0 - 2 15/21 0 - 3

Communication Tests

ITEWC Participated in three Tsunami mock drills

(i) IOWave09 on October 14, 2009

ITEWC MHA, NDMA

(ii) IOWave11 on October 12, 2011

ITEWC NDMA, DMO Public

(iii) IOWave14 on September 9 & 10, 2014

ITEWC NDMA, DMO Public Tsunami Warning Centre

Field Photos

•Two Scenarios •I – M 9.1 EQ South of Java

•II – M 9.0 Makran Zone

•15 Notifications for 12 hours

duration

•23 Indian Ocean Countries

•All National Stake Holders

•Odisha, Puducherry and A &

N Islands took the drill down

to local community level

IOWave14

Communication mode

Elapsed time No. of Stakeholders who received all 15 bulletins

Email 0 - 94 mins 21

Fax 0 - 111 mins 6

SMS 0 - 20 mins 18

State Making a decision on public warning

(from time of receipt of warning)

Formulation of public

notification (from time of

decision)

Activation of public notification systems

(from time of notification formulated

Total Elapsed

time

Maharashtra

20 40 25 1 hr 20 mins

Puducherry

10 5 5 20 mins

Orissa 5 5 10 20 mins

IOWave11 – Stakeholders reception

IOWave11 – Time Taken to Notify Public

IOWave14 – Feedback yet to be received from the stakeholders

Tsunami Mock Drills (IOWAVE Exercises)

• Introduction

• Tsunami Risk Assessment

• Components of ITEWS

• Observation Network

• Tsunami Modelling

• Standard Operating Procedure

• Dissemination

• April 11, 2012

• Capacity Building

• International role as RTSP • Future Works

Indian Tsunami Early Warning System

ITEWC is playing major role in UNESCO’s

Intergovernmental

Coordination Group for Indian

Ocean Tsunami Warning and

Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS)

• As a Regional Tsunami Advisory Service Provider (RTSP) providing bulletins to all Indian Ocean rim countries, together with RTSP Australia & Indonesia

Tsunamis and Other Hazards Related to Sea-Level Warning and Mitigation Systems (TOWS-WG)

• Global Harmonization

RTSP operations of ITEWC

RTSP No. Events

Bulletin Issued

PI 1: Average Elapsed Time of

First Bulletin Target 10 minutes

India (ITEWC) 56 9

Australia (JATWC)

53 13

Indonesia (InaTEWS)

28 22

PTWC 31 9

RIMES 2 30

RTSP

PI 2: Probability of Detecting IO Events ≥ 6.5

(USGS final) Target 100%

Probability of Detecting All Events ≥ 6.5

(USGS final)

India (ITEWC) 100% (4 out of 4) 90% (37 out of 41)

Australia (JATWC)

100% (4 out of 4) 93% (38 out of 41)

Indonesia

(InaTEWS) 100% (4 out of 4) 59% (24 out of 41)

PTWC 100% (4 out of 4) 59% (24 out of 41)

RIMES 50% (2 out of 4) 5% (2 out of 41)

Total Number of Events Bulletins Issued 12 October 2011 to 28 October 2012: 68

RTSP

PI 3a: Average

Difference

in Magnitud

e Target 0.3

PI 3b: Average

Difference

in Depth Target 25km

PI 3c:

Average

Difference in Location

Target 30km

India (ITEWC) 0.2 27 15

Australia (JATWC)

0.1 27 38

Indonesia (InaTEWS)

0.2 28 15

PTWC 0.2 15

RIMES 0.1 43 32

RTSP

No. Events

Threat

Assessment

Bulletin

Issued

PI 4: Average

Elapsed Time of

1st Threat

Assessment

Bulletin

Target 20 mins

Number

of “No

Threat”

Bulletins

Issued

Number of

“Threat”

Bulletins

Issued

India

(ITEWC) 6 24 3

10

(for 3 events)

Australia

(JATWC) 11 21 7

17

(for 4 events)

Indonesia

(InaTEWS) 15 30 11

9

(for 4 events)

PTWC

(IO events

only)

6 9 4

6

(2 events)

RIMES 1 78 none 7

(for 1 event)

Performance of India as an RTSP

Standby Inundation Models (SIM)

Future Works

Main window shows 3D model of the Earth surface. The cities having 3D building models are marked by colored flags.

Real-time Inundation Model (RIM)

Future Works

Extract Statistics of the Damage due to Inundation

Hazard

Safe

Buildings Risk

High

Moderate

Low

No Risk

Streets

Evacuation Routes

Major

Minor

Roads

Evacuation Route Maps

Geospatial Solution of the Year Award 2008 Geospatial Excellence Award 2009

A Special Achievement in GIS

(SAG) Award -2009

from ESRI

Special Jury Award of CSI-

Nihilent E-Governance

Awards-2008-2009

Disaster Mitigation Award-2009 Web Ratna 2009 awards PCQuest Best IT

Implementation Awards 2010

ICHL2013: Award for excellence in

Humanitarian Action

Finalist GENPACT NASSCOM

SOCIAL INNOVATION

HONOURS 2011

Awards

THANK YOU