indian gas scenario
TRANSCRIPT
THE ENERGY CHALLENGE
TOTAL COMMERCIAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS
YEAR TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY (MMTOE)
7% GDP 8% GDP
2006-07 385 394
2011-12 505 537
2016-17 653 718
2026 - 27 1060 1248
2031-32 1333 1620
- FOUR FOLD GROWTH
DRAFT REPORT - INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY PLANNING COMMISSION
THE ENERGY CHALLENGE
ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS
YEAR INSTALLED CAPACITY - MW
7% GDP 8% GDP
2003-04 131424 131424
2006-07 149806 152610
2011-12 206757 219992
2016-17 276143 305623
2021-22 368592 424744
2026 - 27 480694 574748
2031-32 627088 778095
- FIVE TO SIX FOLD INCREASE
DRAFT REPORT - INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY PLANNING COMMISSION
THE ENERGY CHALLENGE
REQUIREMENT OF COAL AND GAS – POWER SECTOR
YEAR COAL (MMT) GAS (MMTOE) GAS (MMSCMD)
7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8%
2003-04 318 318 13 13 39 39
2011-12 366 375 17 18 51 54
2016-17 455 493 36 41 108 124
2021-22 678 814 48 58 145 175
2026-27 885 1133 69 89 208 268
2031-32 1096 1478 100 134 301 404
NON POWER GAS DEMAND = 227 MMSCMD TO 274 MMSCMD
GAS DEMAND OVER NEXT 25 YEARS = 528 MMSCMD TO 678 MMSCMD
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
72/7
3
74/7
5
76/7
7
78/7
9
80/8
1
82/8
3
84/8
5
86/8
7
88/8
9
90/9
1
92/9
3
94/9
5
96/9
7
98/9
9
00/0
1
02/0
3
04/0
5
Years
BCM
BOMBAY HIGH
SOUTH BASSEIN
ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE
LNG IMPORTSMAR -- 04
INDIAN GAS SECTOR – MAJOR MILESTONES
KG FINDS
MYANMAR FIND
INDIAN GAS MARKET OVERVIEW
DOMESTIC SUPPLIES - 74 MMSCMD
IMPORTS (LNG) - 18 MMSCMD
DEMAND POTENTIAL - 150 MMSCMD
MAJOR PLAYERS
E&P -
- ONGC, OIL, RELIANCE, BRITISH GAS, CAIRN, NIKO, GSPC
LNG -
- PETRONET LNG LTD (JV OF PSU,s, GDF, ADB)
- SHELL HAZIRA LNG LTD (SHELL, TOTALFINA-ELF)
- RATNAGIRI PROJECT
GAS TRANSMISSION & MARKETING - GAIL (INDIA) LTD
REGIONAL / RETAIL - MGL, IGL, GCC, GSPC, AGC, TNGCL, PLAYERS BGL, GSPL, GGL & OTHERS
92 MMSCMD
GAS END USE PATTERN
42%
31%
4%
13%
10%
POWER FERTILIZER SPONGE IRONOTHERS I.C./SHRINKAGE
CONSUMPTION - 92 MMSCMD
TYPICAL PIPELINE SYSTEMS
MAIN TRANSMISSION SYSTEM
REGIONAL
TRANSMISSION SYSTEM
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
Typical Pressure Range (Bar)
40 to 70 15 to 40 10 to 0.025
Diameter 24” to 48” Up to 22” Down to 2”
Material of construction
Steel Steel Steel or HDPE Pipe
Others Supply to regional system or large customer
Supply to medium scale consumers & feed to distribution systems
Supply to small consumers & residential users
CROSS BORDER – GAS PIPELINES
MYANMAR- INDIAGAS PIPELINE
LENGTH: 1500 KM
DIAMETER: 36”
• NO CROSS BORDER AND POLITICAL ISSUES WITH
BANGLADESH GOVERNMENT.
ACCESS TO POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS IN NORTH-EAST INDIA,
NORTH - BENGAL AND BIHAR
OPPORTUNITY OF CONNECTING TRIPURA AND OTHER NE
GAS FIELDS.
LONGEST AMONG ON-LAND PIPELINE OPTIONS.
HILLY TERRAIN.
ON-SHORE PIPELINE : MYANMAR – NE - INDIA
A. Offshore Pipelines
- Shallow water (200~250 m)
- Deep water (1560 m)
- Deep water (2210 m)
B. Onshore Pipelines
- Via Chittagaon - Cox’s Bazaar (Bangladesh)
- Via Tripura (India) - Dhaka (Bangladesh)
- Through North-East Indian territory
C. LNG Marine Route
D. CNG Marine Route
Within EEZ of Bangladesh
Outside EEZ of Bangladesh
OPTIONS OF GAS EVACUATION FROM MYANMAR TO INDIA – 8 NOS.
BLOCK A-1
SITTWE LANDFALL POINT MYANMAR
MYAYNGU KYAN
PARADIP
HALDIA
ALT-I( VIA CHATTGAON/ COX’S BAZAR)
ALT-II VIA TRIPURA
OFF-SHORE SHALLOW WATER
OFF-SHORE DEEP WATER (WITHIN EEZ)
OFF-SHORE DEEP WATER (OUTSIDE EEZ)
ONSHORE ROUTE VIA. BANGLADESH
ONSHORE VIA. N E INDIA
LNG OPTION
CNG OPTION
PROPOSED JAGDISHPUR- HALDIA PIPELINE
Gaya
Jagdishpur
MYANMAR- INDIA GAS PIPELINE
OPTIONS OF GAS EVACUATION FROM MYANMAR TO INDIA
Iran – Pakistan- IndiaGas Pipeline
INDICATIVE IRAN-PAKISTAN- INDIA PIPELINE ROUTE
N
AC-1
JAISALMER
BHONG
ASSALUYAH
Assaluyah – Pakistan Border 1100 KMsPakistan Border – AC1 750 KMsAC1 – India Border 250 KMs
Total Distance 2100KMS
Indicative Pipeline Route
Gas Demand for India: 60-90 MMSCMD Gas Demand for Pakistan:30-60MMSCMD Pipeline size: 56” Pipeline Length: 2100 KMS Capital Cost: Approx.Rs. 29000 Crores. O&M Cost: 2% of Capital Cost Transit Fee: to be decided as per the
Energy Charter Treaty (ECT)
SALIENT FEATURES
CROSS BORDER GAS PIPELINES
TURKMENISTAN - AFGHANISTAN- PAKISTAN GAS PIPELINE
PROPOSED ROUTE OF TAP PIPELINE
SALIENT FEATURES
GAS SUPPLY : 90 MMSCMD
PIPELINE SIZE: 56”
PIPELINE LENGTH: 1700 KMS
CAPITAL COST: APPROX. $ 3.3 bn
TRANSIT FEE: AS PER INTERNATIONAL NORMS
Exploration Status
Poorly Explored
Initiated
Unexplored
Well Explored
• Only 18% of the total 3.14 million sq. km. has
been extensively explored
• < 25% of total prognosticated resources
established
• Reserves estimated only in 15 of the 26 basins
• Low Drilling Density
Exploration Status
• The exploration and production activities were carried out in various sedimentary blocks in India by NOCs on nomination basis till formulation NELP and ML policies
• After formulation of NELP and ML policies the blocks of sedimentary basins were awarded for Exploration and production activities to NOCs as well as Private Oil Companies on competitive bidding.
DelhiDelhi
MumbaiMumbai
ChennaiChennai
An
dam
an- N
icob
ar
Kolkata
Phase-I (93 Blocks)Phase-II (21 Blocks)
Development Phase (4 Blocks)
Wells Drilled (17 Blocks)
Status of
Exploration
NELP - 90 Blocks
Pre-NELP - 28 Blocks
Total 118 Blocks
4
21
93
Dev. Phase
Phase-I
Phase-II
History of Gas Pricing in India• Gas a nuisance during production of Oil in early years difficult to get value for it. In 1960’s sold for a few rupees per MCM.
• In1970’s demand for gas grew in Assam and Gujarat, prices rose. Gas used for applications including as city gas.
• ONGC to get revenue from gas priced it on thermal equivalence of alternate fuel. In one factory two different prices for gas based upon the end use.
• Consumer resistance & disputes were settled only after two decades.
• In 1987 uniform price for all consumers with special concession only for the North East region.
• In 1991 Kelkar committee report & recommendations on gas pricing.
Existing APM Gas Pricing• Kelkar Committee (1991) parity with imported fuel oil, but price fixed on a yearly incremental basis.
• Shankar Committee (1997) basic price of NG to basket of imported fuel oils at 55% in first year 65 % in second year and 75% in third year.
• Gas prices were to reach 100 per cent parity with fuel oil by 2001-02 after which linked to the market, this has not happened.
• Defined fuel oil basket now extremely high. • APM Price eventually revised in 2005 to Rs.
3200/MCM(approx. $2.10 per mmbtu)
Present Prices of Non-APM GasProducing field Quantity Price (in $/mmbtu)
(in mmscmd) Floor CeilingPanna, Mukta & Tapti 5 4.08
6 3.86Ravva PSC 2.96 1.75 3.00
Ravva Satellite 1 2.30 3.30Lakshmi Contract I 3.06 4.46
Contract II 3.68GSPCL 3.76Regassified LNG at Dahej 3.45(Before sales tax)
CNG Pricing
• Maharashtra– Mumbai Rs 20.90 per kg – Mira-Bhayandar Rs 21 per kg– Thane Rs 21.30 per kg
• National Capital Region– Delhi Rs 18 per kg
• Gujarat– Ahmedabad Rs 25.53 per Kg– Baroda Rs 20.92 per Kg– Bharuch– Ankaleshwar– Surat Rs 22.55 per Kg
Some Comments
• Myanmar had offered well-head gas at $2.52/mmbtu– Excluding processing and transportation costs
• India wanted Iran gas landed at $2/mmbtu– All put together, the cost of gas at the Indian border is
expected to be above $5 per mmbtu as Iran wants LNG price for pipeline gas also
• NTPC now willing to buy gas at a premium– as against the current APM gas price of $ 2.1 per
mmbtu which is in short supply
Demand Assessment -Natural Gas
MMSCMD
2007 2010 2012
Power Sector 75 95 110
Fertilizer Sector 50 60 60
Industrial Sector 20 25 30
City Gas Distribution 10 15 15
Total 155 195 215
Demand-Supply Balance
60 60 60
2003-04
2010-11
120mmscmd
75
mmscmd
215mmscmd
180mmscmd Unmet Demand:
35 mmscmd
Unmet Demand:45 mmscmd
Demand Supply existingsources
Supply newdomestic finds
LNG
Window of opportunity of approx 40
mmscmd