indian economy in graphs
TRANSCRIPT
Indian Economy in Graphs
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
2
Growth in GDP and Per-capita GDP
4.1
3.2
4.6
5.8
8.3
2.2
0.8
2.2
3.7
6.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Phase I (1951-64) Phase II (1965-81) Phase III (1981-
88)
Phase IV (1988-
03)
Phase V (2003-10)
Growth rate of GDP at factor cost Growth rate of per-capita NNP at factor cost
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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GDP at Factor Cost (Billion 1999-2000 Rupees)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1950
-51
1953
-54
1956
-57
1959
-60
1962
-63
1965
-66
1968
-69
1971
-72
1974
-75
1977
-78
1980
-81
1983
-84
1986
-87
1989
-90
1992
-93
1995
-96
1998
-99
2001
-02
2004
-05
2007
-08
GDP at Factor Cost (Billion 1999-2000 Rupees)
GDP Growth Rates
Phase I: 4.1% Phase II: 3.2%
Phase III:
4.6% Phase IV: 5.8% Phase V:
8.5%
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Per Capita GNP at factor cost in 1999-200 rupees
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1950
-51
1953
-54
1956
-57
1959
-60
1962
-63
1965
-66
1968
-69
1971
-72
1974
-75
1977
-78
1980
-81
1983
-84
1986
-87
1989
-90
1992
-93
1995
-96
1998
-99
2001
-02
2004
-05
2007
-08
Per Capita GNP at factor cost in 1999-200rupees
Growth Rate
Phase I: 2%
Growth Rate
Phase II: 1%
Growth Rate
Phase III: 2.3% Growth Rate
Phase IV: 3.8%
Growth Rate
Phase V: 7%
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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450 460 478 507
599
701
810
913
1175 1171
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
GD
P i
n c
urr
ent
$B
illi
on
GDP in current dollars has grown
15.3% annually during 2003-09
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1950
-51
1953
-54
1956
-57
1959
-60
1962
-63
1965
-66
1968
-69
1971
-72
1974
-75
1977
-78
1980
-81
1983
-84
1986
-87
1989
-90
1992
-93
1995
-96
1998
-99
2001
-02
2004
-05
2007
-08
Imports of Goods and services as % of GDP Trade in Goods and services as % of GDP
1969-70: 4.1%
1957-58 1991-92 2001-02
Imports and Total Trade in Good and Services: 1950-2009
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Total Exports of Goods and Services as % of GDP
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1950
-51
1953
-54
1956
-57
1959
-60
1962
-63
1965
-66
1968
-69
1971
-72
1974
-75
1977
-78
1980
-81
1983
-84
1986
-87
1989
-90
1992
-93
1995
-96
1998
-99
2001
-02
2004
-05
2007
-08
Total Exports of Goods and Services as % of GDP
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Total Software Exports ($Billion)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
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Columbia University
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0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1950
-51
1953
-54
1956
-57
1959
-60
1962
-63
1965
-66
1968
-69
1971
-72
1974
-75
1977
-78
1980
-81
1983
-84
1986
-87
1989
-90
1992
-93
1995
-96
1998
-99
2001
-02
2004
-05
2007
-08
Remittances ($Billion)
1973-74:Oil Crisis 1990-91
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1950
-51
1953
-54
1956
-57
1959
-60
1962
-63
1965
-66
1968
-69
1971
-72
1974
-75
1977
-78
1980
-81
1983
-84
1986
-87
1989
-90
1992
-93
1995
-96
1998
-99
2001
-02
2004
-05
2007
-08
Remittances as % of GDP
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Foreign Investment in Billion Dollars
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1986
-87
1988
-89
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Foreign Investment as % of the GDP
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
19
86
-87
19
87
-88
19
88
-89
19
89
-90
19
90
-91
19
91
-92
19
92
-93
19
93
-94
19
94
-95
19
95
-96
19
96
-97
19
97
-98
19
98
-99
19
99
-00
20
00
-01
20
01
-02
20
02
-03
20
03
-04
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Total Reserves in $Billion at the End of the Fical Year
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1980
-81
1982
-83
1984
-85
1986
-87
1988
-89
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
Total Reserves in $Billion at the End of the Fical Year
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Million Phones as of March 31 of the Year Shown
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
1948
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Teledensity: Telephones Per 100 Population
Urban Teledensity as of March 31 2010: 119.7
Rural Teledensity as of March 31 2010: 24.29
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
1961
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Fixed line phones are now declining in absolute terms
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Cars in Million
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
197
5-76
197
7-78
197
9-80
198
1-82
198
3-84
198
5-86
198
7-88
198
9-90
199
1-92
199
3-94
199
5-96
199
7-98
199
9-00
2001
-02
2003
-04
2005
-06
2007
-08
2009
-10
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Two Wheelers in Million
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
197
5-76
197
7-78
197
9-80
198
1-82
198
3-84
198
5-86
198
7-88
198
9-90
199
1-92
199
3-94
199
5-96
199
7-98
199
9-00
2001
-02
2003
-04
2005
-06
2007
-08
2009
-10
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Total International Air Passengers in Million
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1984
1986
1988
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1984
1986
1988
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
Total Domestic Air Passengers in Million
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1984
1986
1988
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
Total Domestic Air Cargo in Thousand Tonnes
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
1984
1986
1988
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
Total International Air Cargo in Thousand Tonnes
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1950
-51
1953
-54
1956
-57
1959
-60
1962
-63
1965
-66
1968
-69
1971
-72
1974
-75
1977
-78
1980
-81
1983
-84
1986
-87
1989
-90
1992
-93
1995
-96
1998
-99
2001
-02
2004
-05
2007
-08
Private Corporate Inestment (% of GDP)
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Gross private investment as % of the GDP
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1980
-81
1982
-83
1984
-85
1986
-87
1988
-89
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1950
-51
1952
-53
1954
-55
1956
-57
1958
-59
1960
-61
1962
-63
1964
-65
1966
-67
1968
-69
1970
-71
1972
-73
1974
-75
1976
-77
1978
-79
1980
-81
1982
-83
1984
-85
1986
-87
1988
-89
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
Gross Capital Formation (% of GDP)
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Financial
Year
Merchandise
Exports
Services
Exports
Merchandise
Imports
Services
Imports
Exports of
Goods &
Services
Imports of
Goods &
Services
Trade in
Goods &
Services
1990-91 18.5 4.6 27.9 3.6 23.0 32.5 54.5
1991-92 18.3 5.0 21.1 3.8 23.3 26.1 48.2
1992-93 18.9 4.7 24.3 3.6 23.6 29.0 51.5
1993-94 22.7 5.3 26.7 4.7 27.9 32.0 59.4
1994-95 26.9 6.1 35.9 5.5 33.0 42.0 74.4
1995-96 32.3 7.3 43.7 7.5 39.7 51.0 90.9
1996-97 34.1 7.5 48.9 6.7 41.6 56.4 97.3
1997-98 35.7 9.4 51.2 8.1 45.1 60.6 104.4
1998-99 34.3 13.2 47.5 11.0 47.5 60.7 106.0
1999-00 37.5 15.7 55.4 11.6 53.3 71.1 120.3
2000-01 45.5 16.3 57.9 14.6 61.7 74.2 134.2
2001-02 44.7 17.1 56.3 13.8 61.8 73.4 131.9
2002-03 53.8 20.8 64.5 17.1 74.5 85.2 156.1
2003-04 66.3 26.9 80.0 16.7 93.2 106.9 189.9
2004-05 85.2 43.2 118.9 27.8 128.5 162.2 275.2
2005-06 105.2 57.7 157.1 34.5 162.8 214.7 354.4
2006-07 128.9 73.8 190.7 44.3 202.7 264.5 437.6
2007-08 166.2 90.1 257.8 52.5 256.2 347.9 566.5
2008-09 175.2 101.2* 294.6 51.4 276.4 395.8 622.4
Exports and
Imports in
Billion U.S.
Dollars
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Financial
Year
Merchandise
Exports/GDP
Services
Exports/GDP
Merchandise
Imports/GDP
Services
Imports/GDP
Exports of
Goods &
Services/GDP
Imports of
Goods &
Services/GDP
Trade in
Goods &
Services/GDP
1990-91 5.8 1.4 8.8 1.1 7.3 9.9 17.2
1991-92 6.9 1.9 7.9 1.4 8.8 9.4 18.1
1992-93 7.3 1.8 9.4 1.4 9.1 10.7 19.8
1993-94 8.2 1.9 9.7 1.7 10.1 11.4 21.5
1994-95 8.3 1.9 11.1 1.7 10.2 12.8 23.0
1995-96 9.1 2.1 12.3 2.1 11.1 14.4 25.5
1996-97 8.8 1.9 12.6 1.7 10.7 14.3 25.1
1997-98 8.7 2.3 12.5 2.0 11.0 14.4 25.4
1998-99 8.2 3.2 11.4 2.6 11.4 14.1 25.5
1999-00 8.3 3.5 12.3 2.6 11.8 14.9 26.7
2000-01 9.9 3.5 12.6 3.2 13.4 15.8 29.2
2001-02 9.4 3.6 11.8 2.9 12.9 14.7 27.6
2002-03 10.6 4.1 12.7 3.4 14.7 16.1 30.8
2003-04 11.1 4.5 13.3 2.8 15.5 16.1 31.7
2004-05 12.2 6.2 17.0 4.0 18.3 20.9 39.3
2005-06 13.0 7.1 19.4 4.3 20.1 23.6 43.7
2006-07 14.1 8.1 20.9 4.9 22.2 25.7 47.9
2007-08 14.1 7.7 21.9 4.5 21.8 26.4 48.2
2008-09 15.0 8.6 25.2 4.4 23.6 29.6 53.2
Trade as
percent of
the GDP
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
32
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
India
Service exports (BoP, current US$) 19 24 38 56 75
Goods exports (BoP, current US$) 51 61 78 102 124
China
Service exports (BoP, current US$) 40 47 62 74 92
Goods exports (BoP, current US$) 326 438 593 762 970
India and China: Exports of Goods and Services in Current Dollars (Billion)
India and China: Share of Services in Total Exports
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
India
Service exports (% 0f Total) 28 28 33 35 38
China
Service exports (% 0f Total) 11 10 10 9 9
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
33
Poverty ratio: Phase I (1951-62)
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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Poverty ratio: Phase II (1963-74)
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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54.9
51.3
44.5
38.9
36
27.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1973-74 1977-78 1983 1987-88 1993-94 2004-05
Per
cent
of
Popula
tion
Poverty Ratio: Phases III-V (Official)
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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94.589.6
75.177.6
61.9
49.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1972-73 1977-78 1983-84 1987-88 1993-94 2004-05
Ratio of NSS/NAS Per-capita Expenditure
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
37
The Composition of the GDP
Year
Agriculture
and Allied Industry* Manufactures Services
1950-51 55.3 10.6 8.9 34.1
1964-65 46.8 15.1 12.5 38.1
1975-76 42.4 16.1 12.8 41.6
1980-81 37.9 17.4 13.8 44.6
1987-88 31.7 19.3 14.9 48.9
2002-03 21.4 19.9 15.2 58.7
2008-09 17.0 18.5 14.6 64.5
*Industry includes manufactures; mining and quarrying;
and electricity, gas and water.
Note: Calculated using GDP at factor cost at constant 1999-2000 prices
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
38
Rising Share of Services
Stagnant Share of Industry
Shares in the GDP
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990
-91
1993
-94
1996
-97
1999
-00
2002
-03
2005
-06
2008
-09
Industry
Agriculture
Services
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1950
-51
1953
-54
1956
-57
1959
-60
1962
-63
1965
-66
1968
-69
1971
-72
1974
-75
1977
-78
1980
-81
1983
-84
1986
-87
1989
-90
1992
-93
1995
-96
1998
-99
2001
-02
2004
-05
2007
-08
Bil
lio
n 1
99
9-2
00
0 R
up
ees
Agriculture and Allied Activties GDP other than Agriculture & Allied Activities
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
40
28.9
19.2
64.8
58.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1993-94 2004-05 1993-94 2004-05
Output Shares Employment Shares
Agriculture and Allied Activities