India Workshop11-12 May 2006

Adaptation to Climate Change:the outlook in Brazil

Luiz Gylvan Meira FilhoVisiting Professor

Institute for Advanced StudiesUniversity of São Paulo

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There is a time lag between emissios of GHGs and the maximum climate change.

This time lag is of the order of 40-50 years for carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, and 20 years for methane.

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The same is true for emissions reductions: even drastic emissions reductions today will only decrease climate change 40-50 years from now.

It follows that, in order to decrease the magnitude of damages caused by climate change, it will be necessary to adapt to it.

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Adaptation as one option of response to climate change.

Three options available:Inaction, thus damages;Adaptation, when possible;Mitigation.

Optimal decision, a combination of these

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It is essential that our countries define their national interests.

International negotiations deal fundamentally with the sharing of the burden for damages, adaptation costs and mitigation measures.

This in addition to capacity building, sharing of experience, etc.

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BRAZIL – unique circumstances

8.5 million square kilometersless than 200 million inhabitantslarge tropical forestrelative clean energy:

hydro powerethanolbiodieselrenewable charcoal

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Key aspects of adaptation in Brazil:

In many cases adaptation is not possible.Must develop better forecasts of regional climate change.Must include climate change in the short-term climate predictions.Emphasis on adaptation of agriculture and water resources.

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Modelling effort at the CPTEC – Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies, in Cachoeira Paulista.Initial training with help of the Institute for Tropical Meteorology, Pune, in the 1970s.

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Simulation of the effect of replacement of Amazonian forest with pasture in South America, on the regional climate.

Study of the regional effect of climate change upon precipitation in the Amazonian basin.

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As climate changes, there will be a decrease of precipitation in the eastern portion of the Brazilian Amazonian forest. The tendency will be for the edges of the forest to move towards a savannah type of vegetation.

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There are no adaptation measures possible in this case.

There will be a loss of biodiversity associated with the savannization of the borders of the Amazonian forest.

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Change in the precipitation regime will change water availability in the different river basins.

Must be taken into account in order to optimize planning and operation of hydroelectrical plants.

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Agriculture:

This is one area in which the research community is taking interest on climate change, with a view to developing varieties that will be better adapted to the changing climate.

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Health:

The studies on the change of location of malaria do not consider it possible to take adaptation measures.

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Northearn Brazil:

Highest relative interannual variability of precipitation in the world.

The result is quase-periodic dought.

Population ill-adapted to present climate.

With climate change, task may become more difficult.

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Increase of predictive capacity essential to maximize possibility of adaptation.

However, improved predictions are not sufficient.

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Very difficult to separate adaptation to natural climate variability from adaptation to climate change.

Climate are the statistics of the variables that describe the instantaneus state of the atmosphere.

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Rational decision making:

Estimates of costs associated with impacts of climate change and with adaptation measures are essential.

They must be compared with the costs of mitigation.

The distribution in time of the costs is also important. B A S I C