iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com Indias Neighborhood: Myanmar- March towards Democracy Transition of Myanmar to Democracy From 1962 to 2011, the country was ruled by the Military. The first general election in last 20 years was held in 2010. This was hailed by the junta as an important step in the transition from military rule to a civilian democracy. It was boycotted by the main opposition group, Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) - which had won a landslide victory in the previous multi-party election in 1990 but was not allowed to govern. A nominally civilian government led by President Thein Sein - who served as a general and then prime minister under the junta - was installed in March 2011. 2008 constitution: A quarter of seats in both parliamentary chambers are reserved for the military, and three key ministerial posts - interior, defence and border affairs - must be held by serving generals. US secretary of state visited Myanmar first time in 50 years.The newly re-elected President Obama followed suit in November 2012, and hosted President Thein Sein in Washington in May 2013. Myanmar is the world's largest exporter of teak and a principal source of jade, pearls, rubies and sapphires. It has highly fertile soil and important offshore oil and gas deposits. Little of this wealth reaches the mass of the population. The EU followed the US lead, lifting all non-military sanctions in April 2012 and offering Myanmar more than $100m in development aid later that year. Myanmar has huge foreign investment from 32 countries in four major sectors: energy, oil and gas, mining, and manufacturing. Indias Economic Interest in Myanmar India has offered 150 million Dollars credit to Myanmar for establishing a Special Economic Zone at Sittwe in Myanmar's Buyer's Credit Scheme under National Export Insurance Account (NEIA) By 2016 : India, Myanmar and Thailand agreed for trilateral connectivity project from Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand . The state-owned firm ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) won two onshore blocks of the 18 that were bid out by the Myanmar Govt exploration. India's investment in Myanmar is now around $273.5 million. It is expected to soar to $2.6 billion over the next few years. 15% export is happening to India whereas import on only 3% from India. Opportunities: IT sector, Healthcare , Infra, Telecom India extended US$ 500 million Line of Credit Air Services Agreement between India and Myanmar JointIndia-Myanmar Border Area Development EstablishmentoftheAdvanceCentreforAgricultureResearchandEducation (ACARE) Rice Bio Park at the Department of Agricultural Research in Nay Pyi Taw iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com CooperationbetweenMyanmarInstituteofStrategicandInternationalStudies and Indian Council of World Affairs. Establishing of Border Haats across the border between Myanmar and India. Ethnic Tensions Since the 1950s, a number of ethnic armed groups have existed in Myanmar. The largest ethnic group is the Burman people, distantly related to the Tibetans and Chinese.Burman dominance over Karen, Shan, Rakhine, Mon, Rohingya, Chin, Kachin and other minorities has been the source of considerable ethnic tension.Ceasefire deals signed in late 2011 and early 2012 with rebels of the Karen and Shan ethnic groups. Chinese-brokered talks with Kachin rebels in February 2013 also helped to strengthen peace. Violence between Buddhists and the Muslim Rohingya erupted in 2013, the official response to which raised questions at home and abroad about the political establishment's commitment to equality before the law. The Rohingyas, numbering nearly a million and thereby constituting a significant portion of the approximately 55 million population of Myanmar They were stripped of Burmese citizenship in 1982. The Geneva Convention on Refugees of 1951 and its Protocol of 1967 are being grossly violated in respect of the Rohingyas. The geographical proximity of the Rohingya-inhabited Rakhine state of Myanmar with Bangladesh has led a large number of Rohingyas to flee to Chittagong, Bandarban and Cox`s Bazar districts of Bangladesh whenever there is political turbulence in Rakhine state There are 16 major ethnic groups, 14 of them em have agreed for ceasefire but not the Kachins and the Palaung.Kachins are much the most important as they are more numerous and, as many of them are Christian (mainly Baptists), they attract much more attention and support from the West, particularly America.Since the deterioration of a 17-year ceasefire between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the armed wing of the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), and the government in 2011, thousands have been killed in renewed fighting and more than 100,000 Kachins displaced.The continuing Kachin violence, together with the slaughter of the Muslim Rohingya people in Rakhine state in 2012-13, have been major blots in the reforming governments image. The talks are fruitful, the government complied with the ethnic armed groups' demand for building a federal system of government, guaranteeing the democratic rights, national equality and self-determination. iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com The rebels also agreed to the government's principles of non-disintegration of the union, non-disintegration of national solidarity and perpetuation of sovereignty. Drug Trafficking The United Nations Drug Control Programme (UNDCP) and International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) also warned about the poor state of border security facilities stating that the region could become a major transit point for illicit drugs . Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent (Afghanistan-Pakistan-Iran) -has made India's border vulnerable to drug trafficking. Myanmar in the Golden Triangle remains the main producer of illicit opium, accounting for nearly 95 per cent of the total opium produced in the region. Poor management of the India-Myanmar border creates more problems. Myanmar hosted the ASEAN drug meeting in Yangon in November 2013 High ranking officials from the Drug Enforcement Administration of the U.S, Australian Federal Police and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime also participated. Leaders agreed for stronger action. Joint Border Working Group (Moreh Incident) Four Northeast Indian states share the border with Burma: Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoramand Manipur . The border at Moreh in Manipur, Burmese troops crossed the line and entered the Holenphai village to erect camps, claiming that the region belonged to Myanmar and that work would not be stopped until the field commander received orders otherwise from higher authorities.This is a considerably new development, and authorities from the Indo-Myanmar Border Fencing Committee (IMBFC) set up by the Indian Government said on a visit that certain sections of the border are not clearly defined and that neither India nor Myanmar individually held the answers for this, stressing on the need for comprehensive talks to settle the issue.India has suggested Myanmar set up a Joint Border Working Group, JBWG to address the issue of demarcation of border between the two countries.This follows attempt by Myanmarese Army to construct a defence post near an undemarcated border pillar. Terrorism in India: New Dimension Interrogation of David Headley, an accused of 26/11 Mumbai attack, yielded that Pakistani terrorist organization Lashkar-i-Taiyyaba had prepared a video of Mahabodhi Temple in 2010. RAW is aware that Rohingya radicals are receiving funds from Saudi Arabia, training from Pakistan and weapons from Thailand. iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com links between Rohingya radicals with terrorist groups like the LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) of Pakistan, and Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami and Jamaat-e-Mujahideen of Bangladesh. Arakan Rohingya Nationalist Organization (ARNO) and Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) were among the groups who were trained in Afghanistan camps and were and are active. Role of Myanmar in fighting Insurgency The insurgent outfits of Northeast India have lost sanctuaries in Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh.12th BIMSTEC ministerial meeting, have adopted the BIMSTEC Convention for Cooperation in Combating International Terrorism, Transnational Organised Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking. ULFA chief Paresh Barua taking shelter in the Kachin state of Myanmar is supposedly carrying out activities against India. India and Myanmar have agreed to share intelligence to deal with insurgent groups Indian government-initiated cross-border projects like the Tamu-Kalewa highway, Tamanthi River hydroelectricity and offshore blocks in Bay of Bengal and the A1 and A7 gas blocks in Arakan regionThere is not much incentive for Myanmar to take any action against them.Myanmar lost 20-25 soldiers in an operation against an NSCN (K) faction. India is willing to provide them with better logistical support and a stake in the maintenance of better relations, Myanmar would not be very keen on helping India with its insurgency problem. . Constitution and Role of Military A key issue is whether the role of the military, as defined by the Constitution of Myanmar, will be changed.A constitution in any democracy must clearly define the position of the military and provide for appropriate national defence, while providing mechanisms to prevent the misuse of power.There should be civilian control over the military, and the military should be subordinate to the executive arm of government in particular.To achieve this, the military cannot also be part of the legislature, nor have the power to appoint ministers. A range of constitutional approaches can limit military power.iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com Some constitutions adopt a minimal approach and briefly refer to the military as subordinate to the executive, leaving other details for further regulation by the legislature.Others take a more expansive approach and set out in detail the role of the military and the limits of its powers. In Myanmar the military is under the control of the Defence Services Commander-in-Chief, who is appointed by the President.But the Presidents appointment is subject to the approval of the National Defence and Security Council, a majority of whose members are from the military.In practice, this means the military has significant influence in appointing its own commander. The Constitution does not specify the term of the Commander-in-Chief, the qualifications the position requires, or the circumstances in which he could be removed from his position.In contrast, the office of the President has a clear term, the candidate must meet set requirements, and there is a clear process for removal from office. There are further differences in relation to the composition of Parliament and the election of members. The Commander-in-Chief has the power to nominate the Defence Service personnel in both houses of Parliament, which makes up 25 per cent of the seats. He also has the power to recommend the appointment of the Minister of Home Affairs, Border Affairs and Defence. The 2008 Constitution creates a complex relationship between the President, the Commander-in-Chief and the military-dominated National Defence and Security Council.President appears to be subject to greater regulation, at least in comparison to the Commander-in-Chief. In addition to being subordinate to the executive, the military must not be immune from the law and should also be required to comply with human rights obligations.There are several different approaches to military justice in democratic countries. In some systems, a crime committed by a military officer may be heard by the general courts, and in other contexts such cases are heard by a system of special military courts. The Constitution of Myanmar also provides for a system of courts martial, with an ultimate appeal to the Commander-in-Chief.There is no right to appeal to the Supreme Court in Myanmar, which means that the decision of the Commander-in-Chief is not subject to review. This is why it is important that the current constitutional amendment process clarify the role of the military. Formal changes to ensure that the military is subject to the control of the executive, and that there are clear limits to its power, would be an important step for Myanmar to flourish. Role of India in Myanmars transition to a successful democracy iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com Buddhist installations in India will be target thus India must ensure that the transition is done without any damage. The recent easing of Western economic and financial sanctions as reward for political reforms in Myanmar opens the way for India to play a more proactive role. At the same time, New Delhi will give priority to securing its own economic and commercial interests, including oil and gas exploration, vis-a-vis rising competition against new and old powers in the region.India's economic involvement in Myanmar, largely through the public sector, has in the past been marred by complaints about implementation delays and quality control. Thus private sector should be encouraged from Indian side. China represents another challenge. China was close to the previous authoritarian regime in exchange for commercial concessions, thus there would be a shift under civil rule. Thus India can protect Myanmars interest by giving more options for trade and investment. India must ensure human right protection through economic engagement which was not observed by china as the government's suspension of the US$3.6 billion Myitsone dam project commissioned to Chinese investors shows insensitivity at Chinas part for local community.Furthermore the lack of connectivity and poor rail-road links in border areas of Myanmar and India's contiguous northeastern region poses a formidable challenge for making Myanmar a land bridge between South and Southeast Asia.India's "Look East" aims to fill this infrastructural gap, including by building roads to connect the two countries.Initiatives dealing with unresolved ethnic conflicts have raised hopes for peace, India must push for governments needs to move beyond temporary ceasefires and resolve underlying political issues.India must teach Myanmar valuable lessons in multiculturalism from India, especially in the fields of adopting federal democratic practices and managing ethnic conflicts. Strategic Importance of Myanmar First, it wants to trade directly with Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Malaysia. Second, it would be in Indias interest to keep China at bay in Myanmar. But in order to do so, the Northeast needs to be pacified. Myanmar is the second- largest of Indias neighbours and the largest on our Eastern flank. Myanmar provides the Eastern littoral of the Bay of Bengal.An unfriendly Myanmar hosting foreign naval presence would be a grave threat to Indias security. iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com Myanmar has a big border with China in the North, contiguous with the Sino- Indian disputed border.Military analysts can gauge the various strategic complications that arise from such a configuration in case Myanmar is under unfriendly influence. Myanmar bridges South Asia and India with South-East Asia.It also acts as a buffer between Indias North Eastern States and the Southern provinces of China. There is a need that India must engage with Myanmar Politically, Militarily and economically. In Indias quest for strategic partnerships, Myanmar acquires top priority being a vital geo-strategic entity on her Eastern flank and sharing a long border with China.Myanmars providing the major Eastern littoral to the Bay of Bengal imparts added strategic significance to Indias naval strategies.Myanmar has not permitted China to turn it into a strategic de-stablising entity for India, like Pakistan.India should therefore make a determined effort to forge a strategic partnership with Myanmar. Quickread: Myanmar Unlike Bangladesh, Myanmar, despite its critical importance for India security, Indias Look East Policy and the stability imperative for the Northeast does not receive as much attention as it should.Part of the reason is that Myanmar has undergone long periods of insurgency and has suffered international isolation.During its years of isolation, Chinas influence in the country has grown while Indias engagement has reduced.The next 20 years will see greater interaction between India and Myanmar.The political changes in Myanmar are slow but promising.In a marked departure from the past trends, the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar in November 2011 and in April 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi participated in the fledgling democratic process in Myanmar and won the by-elections to become a member of the national legislature. Myanmar is rich in natural resources and has a superb geo-strategic location. China has invested considerably and rapidly in Myanmar and there is a perception that it may seek to push India out of Myanmar.The challenge before India in the next 20 years will be to ensure that it invests in Myanmar, contributes to its growth and draws it into the various regional cooperation projects.The development and connectivity of infrastructure projects between Northeast India and Myanmar is of critical importance. The game changing event that might occur in the not too distant future is the completion of the oil pipeline from the Bay of Bengal through Myanmar to China.Myanmar will be more integrated with the world and its isolation will end. This will open up fresh avenues for Indo-Myanmar relations. iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com