india monthly risk forecast - mitkat...olacabs, has hired background-verification firm authbridge to...

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST

FEBRUARY 2015

Although the past few years have reinforced the notion that CPI-Maoist has ceased to be the force it used to be, its operational weakness, however, has not curtailed its ability to carry out periodic attacks resulting in high casualty among the security forces. Maoists would continue their attempts to spread their activities into new areas in 2015. In fact, such attacks would remain part of the CPI-Maoist's continuing attempt of seeking relevance, rebuilding its organisational strength, and inflicting setbacks on the security forces.

Naxal Trends

Crude oil prices have dropped by as much as half since June 2014 when they were hovering around $115 per barrel - a huge energy story with major repercussions for dozens of countries, from the United States to Russia to Iran. However, the US oil boom has had a surprisingly little effect on global prices. That's because, at the exact same time, geopolitical conflicts were flaring up in key oil regions. International disruptions like the ISIS expansion in West Asia, diplomatic rows etc. will continue to affect our oil supplies; and this will compel India to formulate its foreign policy with energy security as its important bulwark.

Expert Speak: Role of Geo-politics in Falling Oil Prices

w 7th Feb: Delhi Assembly Electionw 11th Feb: Death anniversary of JKLF founder Mohammad Maqbool Bhatw 14th Feb: Valentine’s Dayw 19th Feb: Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayantiw 21st Feb: Anniversery of Hyderabad Terror Attack of 2013w 27th Feb: Anniversary of Godhra train accident

Event Calendar

Delhi security agencies and authorities gearing up for the polls due on February 7

Chhatrapati Shivaji Jayanti celebrations across Maharashtra on February 19

India on a high alert as spread of swine flu picks up during winters

Time for extra caution for anniversary of Hyderabad terror attack on February 21

February 2015

Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa

1

8

15

22

1

25

2

9

16

23

2

26

3

10

17

24

3

27

11

18

25

4

28

5

12

19

26

5

29

6

13

20

27

6

30

14

21

28

7

31

74

In a continued violation of ceasefire, heavy cross-border shelling by Pakistan Rangers claimed the lives of five Border Security Force (BSF) personnel and a civilian in the first week of the new year. The Army troops were maintaining highest degree of alert at the border following concerns of over 200 militants attempting to infiltrate into the Indian side under the cover of the relentless shelling by Pakistani troops. Additionally, counter insurgency operations within the state of Jammu & Kashmir were also intensified to flush out militants feared to be holed up inside the state and looking for opportunities to strike there or move up to Delhi, ahead of the Republic Day, and target the national capital. There were multiple encounters in the state, mostly in Shopian and Sopore districts where eight militants were neutralized. There were reports of terror attacks as well, one of which resulted in the martyrdom of three Indian soldiers, including a Colonel ranked officer in Pulwama district. In view of these inputs, Army schools across Jammu region were closed as a precautionary measure from January 22-30 and a multi-tier security blanket was thrown across the state. While police and paramilitary personnel laid special blockades at various roads, sniffer dogs were also pressed into service. Surveillance was being maintained at all sensitive places and the vehicles passing through the blockades checked.

While the timely inputs of intelligence agencies and operational readiness of the Indian armed forces ensured that civilian lives were not exposed to the assault by the terrorists and that they could not sneak into major cities, in the heart of India, the indiscriminate shelling damaged the civilian infrastructure in the border areas leading to the exodus of almost 10,000 villagers. Security forces were also challenged to maintain high vigil without panicking the tourists by obtrusive deployments. The process of installing a government is still underway and may invite visits by several VVIP politicians to the state. Such visits may be a precursor for the holed up militants to make their presence felt and security agencies can be expected to continue with the ongoing alert.

Spurt in terror activities kept security forces on the toes in Jammu & Kashmir

The Month That Was

Taxi operators start fixing security issues, challenges remain

In the backdrop of the shocking sexual assault on a woman passenger in an Uber cab in New Delhi in December last year, both transport and police departments of several states started tightening the noose on cab operators. The installation of panic buttons in radio taxis will be strictly enforced once the government brings out guidelines for the vehicles. Even as the government is planning a feasibility study on installing panic buttons in call-taxis, some cab operators have already begun fixing them in their vehicles to ensure the safety of customers. India's largest taxi aggregator, Olacabs, has hired background-verification firm AuthBridge to vet the drivers who use its platform. The company has planned to invest more than a hundred crore this year in efforts related to passenger safety. Ola has also introduced a "panic button", second layer of GPS security and is in the testing phase for a female-only cab service called 'Pink' to ensure women safety. Similar features have also been introduced by other popular cab operators like Meru, TaxiForSure and Uber.

However, the efficacy of the entire exercise still confronts larger, systematic challenges. Transport department may need to rope in private agencies to conduct a feasibility assessment for the location, structure, facilities and capabilities of control rooms. Sharing of infrastructure like developing common, centralised control rooms would make the system cost effective and viable. The emergency support system needs to be substantially boosted to bring down the reaction time by police. A major challenge for taxi services looking to run female only cabs, lies in finding enough female drivers. The utilisation of the available aids depends entirely on the awareness and confidence level of the women passengers and needs urgent attention as well. Training sessions of self defence, awareness and sensitization about the prevalent threats, laws and aids available should also be invested into by all institutes and organisations.

Mumbai +91 9820 126 761 | Delhi +91 9999 689 502 | Bengaluru +91 9972 001 260 | Singapore +65 9222 5030www.mitkatadvisory.com

In the drive against the militant organisation, National Democratic Front of Bodoland (Songibijit), Army has stepped up its operation in the deep jungles of Kokrajhar and Chirang after massacre of tribal villagers by the NDFB (S) on December 23 last year. These operations have resulted in the apprehension of dozens of NDFB (S) cadres, which includes Enon, the chief recruiting officer of the terrorist organisation and third in hierarchy. Many middle and lower rung cadres of the outfit have also been apprehended, who had direct or indirect involvement in the carnage of the villagers.

The NDFB (S) had launched an attack on tribals in Sonitpur and Kokrajhar districts of Assam on December 23 last year following which there was retaliatory violence and police firing resulting in the killing of 81 persons. Earlier on January 16, 2014 six Hindi-speaking persons were shot dead after the armed insurgents pulled down around a dozen passengers from a bus coming from to Shillong and opened fire on them at Athiabari. While it may be believed the militant group has been fractured, the prevailing situation demands extra caution as the remaining cadres might attempt retaliatory attacks, that would also serve the purpose of showcasing their capabilities. Two suspected Bodo militants, were also arrested in Electronic City, Bengaluru. One of them confessed to be an organizing secretary of the NDFB (S). He also confessed to have participated in the Assam attacks and to have received arms training in Bangladesh. They had fled the state following the operations by the Indian Army. Given that a large number of people, belonging to the north-east, live in metro cities, for education and work, these cities provide an easy hideout for Bodo militants. Security forces need to establish stringent procedures to prevent such attempts as this may cause a security threat in these cities as well.

NDFB (S) weakened after the arrest of several militants; fear of remaining members hiding out in metros

Security forces kept busy by a spate of intelligence alerts, several suspected terrorists arrested from key cities

Ahead of the Republic Day celebrations on January 26, which were attended by US President Barack Obama, as a Chief Guest, intelligence inputs on terror threats came by the dozen. While most of the alerts were generated by the Indian Intelligence Bureau, several alerts were shared by US and UK agencies too. Although, there is no clear indication of the targets that could be on the radar of terrorists, the security was substantially strengthened across the country and all infiltration attempts were being closely watched at all borders, inland and maritime. Delhi was turned into a fortress by Indian as well as US security agencies during Obama's visit.

Several places of worship in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha and Maharashtra were put on high alert following intelligence inputs that four Pakistan-based terrorist groups, Jamat-Ud-Dawa, Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e- Mohammed, were planning joint terror attacks. The highly popular temples of Siddhivinayak in Mumbai (Maharashtra) and Shri Jagannath in Puri (Odisha) were also reportedly under the threat. With the telecom department unblocking 32 websites, which were earlier banned for posting objectionable content on the banned Islamic State (IS), several videos of militants undergoing training surfaced on the web, giving thrust to the apprehensions of IS looking to polarise and recruit Indian youth. A recently-arrested IS sympathiser, Salman Mohiuddin, had allegedly tried to use them to influence Hyderabad youth. Such videos appear to be the common tools of all IS sympathisers and recruiters who use the training videos and radical speeches to lure local youth. Security agencies have been trying to nab sympathisers of terror outfits by carrying out decoy operations on the web. Four people, suspected to be hard-core members of banned Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) terror outfit were arrested by the NIA, taking the number of people it has nabbed, in its probe in the Burdwan blast case . The investigations by the NIA appear to be leading to an international terror network spread till Myanmar and being funded through some middle-east countries. In the fortnight leading up to the Republic Day, Bengaluru police arrested four IM operatives from Bhatkal who are suspected to have supplied explosives to bombers such as Waqas, Tehseen Akhtar and Yasin Bhatkal. Besides, the police on January 8 seized 40 packets of ammonium nitrate gel, each weighing 125 gm, along with detonators, electronic timer devices, digital circuits, wires and PVC pipes from the accused. The spate of arrests and recovery of explosives gave credence to the intelligence reports that indicate terror strikes were being actively planned in India. However, a strict vigil ensured that no incidents could occur in any of the major cities.

to 16

The Month That Was


As Delhi goes to polls for the state assembly, nearly one year after the stint by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), political battles have spilled on to the streets of New Delhi with Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) and AAP emerging as the strongest contenders for making the government. BJP has planned to organise 250 rallies starting January 31, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Party Chief Amit Shah likely to address dozens of public meetings. AAP has come out with a 70-point agenda for the betterment of Delhi. The issues covered include swaraj, full statehood, clean water, cleaner Delhi, women's safety, public health, empowerment of rural and village areas, to make Delhi a drug free city, connecting villages by metro, reducing unemployment, cleaning Yamuna etc. The BJP, on the other hand, had announced that they will not be releasing a manifesto, but a vision document for Delhi. They said that the vision document will feature a roadmap for development and welfare of the people. Women safety is high on the priority of BJP as well, though.

Elections will be held in Delhi on February 7; votes will be counted on February 10. Massive security apparatus has been deployed after the election commission predicted a record turnout. Besides inter-party clashes, terror groups are particularly active during such periods looking to exploit any loopholes that they can to spread terror and disrupt the process as well as the outcome. State and central security forces will provide multi-layered security at key areas. Checkpoints will be set-up at all entry points of the state as well as critical infrastructure like airport, Metro stations, railway stations etc. and places that attract massive crowds like malls, markets, places of worship etc. The security measures can be expected to increase travel time and commuters are advised to carry personal IDs to avoid any inconvenience during security checks.

Delhi security agencies and authorities gearing up for the polls due on February 7

Chhatrapati Shivaji Jayanti celebrations across Maharashtra on February 19

On February 19, Maharashtra will celebrate the birth anniversary of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, the legendary 17th century warrior king of the region and the unifier of the Maratha Empire. The celebrations are particularly grand in Mumbai; other cities like Pune and Nashik too have elaborate celebrations. In Mumbai, the major centre of festivities is Shivaji Park in Dadar, roads leading to which see massive rallies. It is a holiday across the state with most offices and educational institutes closed.

The city of Mumbai is heavily guarded by the police force which will be deployed in high numbers to maintain the law and order situation during the event's proceedings. Personnel from Rapid Action Force, State Reserve Police Force, home guards and NGOs will also be deployed. The navy and coast guards will provide necessary assistance at the beaches. Helicopters will be flown for aerial cover and closed circuit television cameras (CCTVs) will be installed at major waterfronts and roads. Mass gatherings, rallies and stringent security checks are likely to hinder traffic movement at many places.

Forecast for February


India on a high alert as spread of swine flu picks up during winters

There has been a sudden surge in the number of swine flu cases and the resultant fatalities in the last few days. The government has issued swine flu alert with Haryana, Delhi, Maharashtra, Telangana, Rajasthan and Gujarat witnessing a steep rise in swine flu cases. So far, more than 70 deaths have been recorded in the country in 2015. Telangana is the worst hit with around 550 cases and 25 deaths. The National Capital is also witnessing a sharp rise, with over 400 cases and five deaths. 31 people have succumbed to the virus in Rajasthan and the state has 115 positive cases. The virus has claimed 22 lives in Gujarat and the number of positive cases has reached 170. In Hyderabad, around two dozen frontline health workers have been treated for swine flu after accidentally coming into contact with infected patients, in a sign of poor preventive and hygiene measures.

The H1N1 influenza virus attack is more likely in winter months and the Indian Medical Association and the Health Ministry are pinning hopes that the flu will wane away with the rise in atmospheric temperature over the coming weeks. However, variation in temperature is considered favourable for the growth of any virus or bacteria and there might be a steep rise in the number of cases in February too, before weather conditions begin to stabilise. The virus spreads from one person to another via droplet infection through cough, sneeze and touch. Precautions include frequent hand-washing, especially after direct contact with ill persons or their environment. Whenever possible, avoid crowded enclosed spaces and close contact with people suffering from acute respiratory infections. Ill persons should be encouraged to practise cough etiquette, which is maintaining distance, covering coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues or clothing and washing hands. Most people recover within a week, without any special treatment. Stay at home, keep warm, and drink plenty of fluids to prevent dehydration. Antiviral drugs like Oseltamavir (Tamiflu) and Zanamivir (Relenza) are effective, but are prescribed only in severe cases.

On 21 February 2013, two deadly blasts occurred in the heart of Hyderabad, the capital of the then undivided Andhra Pradesh. The dual strikes were conduted in Dilsukhnagar, a crowded shopping area, within 100 metres of each other. Two popular eateries were targeted in the blasts; which were conducted using Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) planted on bicycles. 17 people were killed and at least 119 injured. Subsequent investigations have not been able to pin-point the responsibility for the attacks.

Terrorist groups often use such anniversaries to conduct high impact attacks in an attempt to garner media attention towards the original attack and also to showcase their capabilities and create a panic. Security forces will be on a high alert to thwart any such attempts by forces inimical to India (terrorists / insurgents, separatists and fundamentalists). Security, particularly in Hyderabad, New Delhi, Mumbai, other major cities and sensitive areas will be strengthened. The threat perception of terror is particularly high this year after numerous intelligence alerts and arrest of several key terrorists over the past few weeks.

Time for extra caution for anniversary of Hyderabad terror attack on February 21

Forecast for February


Afghanistan

Barely a month after the ISAF drawdown, the Afghani forces are feeling the burn of being inadequately equipped to deal with the Taliban militancy in the strife-torn country. The incidences of Taliban attacks have remained constant, with the nascent Afghan security forces having taken over the full mandate of security in Afghanistan. The Taliban's continued violence involves an attack on the Khost police academy, civilian vehicles fired at in Baghlan, multiple casualties in a bomb explosion in Kandahar, and very recently, the news of a young girl forced to carry out further suicide bomb attacks. The Taliban also attacked a convoy of their own ex-comrades, who had dissented to join the Afghan government's peace and reconciliation process.

The depleted state of the armed forces can be gauged by the Afghanistan Air Force's tactic of mounting machine calibre guns on transport helicopters, to assist the ground forces in carrying out their strikes.

Pakistan

After the Peshawar school tragedy last month, Islamabad has reinvigorated its efforts in countering the domestic terrorist threat. After having abolished the death penalty and setting up special army courts, Pakistan has now allowed its school teachers to carry arms and ammunition, to double up as security providers in the event of another tragedy. The move comes in after the education management has accepted that the police cannot protect all the schools in the province. Most government funded schools lack the funds to hire armed security, therefore they have to take matters in their own hands.

Neighbourhood Scan


On his meeting with Myanmar Vice President, Dr Sai Mauk Kham, President Pranab Mukherjee has called for increased bilateral ties between the two countries. The present bilateral trade has seen India become Myanmar's fourth largest trading partner, with the balance of trade greatly in Nawpyidaw's favour. Yet, both the leaders believe that this is far below the potential, and does not reflect the closeness of the ties. President Mukherjee said Indian companies are keen to bring their expertise and resources to Myanmar in promising sectors such as energy, power, construction, banking, insurance and other fields.India continues to donate $5 million annually to Myanmar, as per the MoU on Border Areas Development.

The two countries are also in talks to cooperate and conduct joint operations as a part of India's all-out offence against the NFDB(S). The left wing organisation has recently stepped up on its operations in the North Eastern part of India, having recently killed more than 70 tribals in the area.

The Central Government recently reached out to the governments of Myanmar and Bhutan to float the feasibility of joint operations targeting these outfits, not unlike the operations carried out against the ULFA in 2003. NFDB(S) has the bases in the dense forests of Myanmar's Kachin state and the Saigang division, which are controlled by the Kachin Independence Army. Assisting Myanmar in dealing with the KIA will be beneficial for both the countries.

Myanmar

Bangladesh has had a turbulent month, after political tensions remain at an all time high, following country-wide protests. Spear-heading the protests is the leader of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Khaleda Zia, and the Jamaat-e-Islami party. More than 30 people have died, with hundreds injured, after protests flared for the ruling Awami League to step down and give way to fair elections in the country. In January 2014, the opposing BNP and the Jamaat boycotted the general elections, after the incumbent government instituted an all-Awami League interim cabinet to conduct the elections. Zia called for mass protests on the 5th of January to mark the anniversary of the previous elections, to which the Hasina responded by banning the demonstrations. Zia then called for an indefinite blockade of roads, railways and waterways leading into Dhaka, which still remains in effect. The JeI also called for a 'stay at home' protest. Zia, who is on trial for corruption, was under office arrest from the 3rd of January, till the 19th.

Bangladesh

Nepal

Secularism is arguably one of the most contentious issues in the constitution-making process in Nepal today. Major political parties that declared Nepal secular in May 2006, are now rethinking the matter. The government led by G.P. Koirala, which had the UML as a coalition partner and Maoist support from outside, had taken both decisions — doing away with Nepal's Hindu status and the national unity day. Prashrit, a key player against a secular Nepal, has stood against the government ever since, and asked for the annulment of both. Others, mainly the Maoists, fear that a review of Nepal's secular status may next lead to a questioning of the federal and republican character of Nepal.

The demand for the restoration of Nepal's Hindu status is gaining ground. Not only the UML but also the Nepali Congress (NC), which heads the coalition with the former, is vertically split on the issue. Religion and caste/ ethnicity have emerged as the major issues and stumbling blocks in constitution-writing.

Secularism is being interpreted differently, triggering a large scale reaction. Maoists have a history of trampling Hindu temples and idols, burning rare Sanskrit manuscripts and slaughtering cows, which remains taboo, during the civil war. As a result, Hindu groups are now more agitated, especially after some EU states began openly advocating the right to change one's religion.

Neighbourhood Scan


Spotlight - Sri Lanka


Following his decision to call for early elections, Mahinda Rajapaksa suffered an overwhelming defeat, paving the way for Maithripala Sirisena to become the new President of Sri Lanka on 8th January 2015. Disgruntled by the nepotism and corruption of the political echelon, Sri Lankans voted to oust the decade long president, giving Sirisena a surprise victory by a small margin.

Rajapaksa, who is widely credited with ending the Tamil Tigers regime, was criticised for his executive presidency antics.

There were several reports of Rajapaksa having summoned police officers, military chiefs and the attorney general on the night of the election to discuss ways to declare a state of emergency and halt the count when it appeared he might lose.

Since his defeat, several one-time allies have come out to register criminal complaints against the ex-president, accusing him and his family of various atrocities committed over the period of their power. The new government has also started investigating allegations of money and assets siphoned by the Rajapaksa family.

Sirisena, a one time member of the Rajapaksa cabinet, has promised a slew of policy reforms, starting with abolishing the executive presidency, limiting military power and authority in the governance structure, and redirecting Sri Lanka's foreign policy to expedite economic strengthening of the country.

Sirisena is believed to be favourable to the Modi Administration, primarily because of his resolve to bring the human rights violators of the LTTE era to justice. Drawing from a reconciliatory approach towards the Tamil minority, the new government is looking at bridging the ethnic and social divide between the tamils and the Lankan state, not only for the tamil population on the island state, but also to send out a positive signal to the Sri Lankan diaspora globally, that it is safe to return back now.

Sirisena is also believed to be wary of the country's Chinese connect, which Rajapaksa shared with Beijing. Under the previous government, China had designs to use Sri Lanka as a submarine dock and refuelling hub, giving Colombo military assistance in return. China has also been one of Sri Lanka's biggest creditors in the past, allowing the Rajapaksa government to maintain its industrial growth ambitions, despite a weak economic policy.

previous government, China had designs to use Sri Lanka as a submarine dock and refuelling hub, giving Colombo military assistance in return. China has also been one of Sri Lanka's biggest creditors in the past, allowing the Rajapaksa government to maintain its industrial growth ambitions, despite a weak economic policy.

Sirisena has already made public his intent to improve relations with India, a move echoed within the Modi Government too. After assuring India of continued access to its liberal market policies, Colombo is actively searching for inroads into connecting with New Delhi on a larger scale. A visit to New Delhi is on the cards for Sirisena.

Role of Geo-politics in Falling Oil Prices

Expert Speak


Crude oil prices have dropped by as much as half since June 2014 when they were hovering around $115 per barrel. The drop has been the sharpest in the last three months - a huge energy story with major repercussions for dozens of countries, from the United States to Russia to Iran.

To understand this story, we first have to go back to the mid-2000s. Oil prices were rising sharply because global demand was surging, especially in China, and there simply wasn't enough oil production to keep up. That led to large price spikes, and oil stayed over $100 per barrel between 2011 and 2014.

Yet as oil prices increased, many energy companies found it profitable to begin extracting oil from difficult-to-drill places. In the United States, companies began using techniques like fracking and horizontal drilling to extract oil from shale formations in North Dakota and Texas. In Canada, companies were heating Alberta's gooey oil sands with steam to extract usable crude.

However, US oil boom had surprisingly little effect on global prices. That's because, at the exact same time, geopolitical conflicts were flaring up in key oil regions. Also, there was a civil war in Libya.

OPEC, a cartel of oil producers that includes Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, had a big meeting in Vienna on November 27. Before the gathering, there was speculation that OPEC countries might cut back on their own oil production in order to prop up prices. But in the end, the cartel couldn't agree on how to respond and did nothing. This marks a big shift in global oil politics. Essentially, OPEC is now engaged in a price war with oil producers in the United States. The cartel will let prices keep falling in the hopes that many of the newest drilling projects in the US will prove unprofitable and shut down. This is a risky stand-off for OPEC, as many of its member countries require high oil prices to balance their budgets. Some countries, like Venezuela and Iran, wanted the cartel (mainly Saudi Arabia) to cut back on production in order to prop up the price. These countries need high prices in order to "break even" on their budgets and pay for all the government spending they've racked up. Iran, for one, is facing a real pinch. It's also a sign that OPEC's influence over global oil markets may be waning.

While it is difficult to pinpoint, it is estimated that US shale projects remain profitable at prices above $60 per barrel. It is hence widely agreed that falling prices will constrain US and Canadian oil production to some extent. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast that US shale production will grow more slowly if current prices persist (though the agency still expects output to rise another 955,000 barrels per day in 2015). But estimates of the exact impact can vary widely. Saudi Arabia is predicting and hoping that the US boom will largely fizzle out at these prices. Other onlookers think drillers will remain surprisingly resilient.

At a time when losses on oil exports are compounding and supply of oil is higher than the demand, the availability and efficacy of trade logistics will play a vital role in bringing down the operational cost for exporters, thus making it easier for them to survive through this period of turmoil. As such, the world fleet will continue to increase. The operations will be optimised, technology will play a key role wherein maximum processes will be automated to increase accuracy, speed and reliability and reduce manpower cost. The infrastructure at ports will be expanded to cater to a larger fleet of ships. Security will play an even bigger role to prevent erosion of bottom lines and ensure uninterrupted trade and business continuity.

-Abhishek Sambharia

Expert Speak


For India, the fall in oil prices has made it easier to import more oil. However, this implies the need to forge good relations with exporting countries, have a strong presence in the international arena, and to dominate the Sea Lines of Communication in the Indian Ocean through which 80% of these energy fuels reach India. International disruptions like the ISIL expansion in West Asia, diplomatic rows etc. will continue to affect our oil supplies; and this will compel India to formulate its foreign policy with energy security as its important bulwark.

Abhishek Sambharia, Associate Consultant, MitKat Advisory Services : Abhishek has a rich experience in Security and Enterprise Risk Management with proven credentials in Geo-Political Risk Management (GPRM) and Threat Vulnerability Risk Assessment (TVRA). He has been involved in many prestigious assignments with industry leading organisations. He is a regular contributor to leading Risk Management and Consulting journals. He currently creates the daily India Risk Tracker, Monthly Forecast and India Risk Review for select clients; in addition to other special event advisories and post-event analyses.

Naxal Tracker - January

2015


January events and incidents

Naxals or Maoists are militant far-left radical Communist groups operating in India. Inspired by the doctrines of Mao Zedong, they work to overthrow the government and upper classes by violence. They are considered as a terrorist organization under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of India (1967).

Naxalites activities have spread to about 82 districts across 10 states, though some are very moderately affected. Maoist incidents have accounted for almost 60 per cent of terrorism-related violence in India over the last decade. These include intimidation, killings of innocent civilians, reprisal killings, abductions and kidnappings, IED blasts and the destruction of government and private property. In many of the areas of their influence, the Maoists have been collecting taxes and dispensing instant and brutal justice through kangaroo courts.

Ÿ1st January - Chhattisgarh: Former intelligence chief of Maoists, Shivaji Korsa killed by heavily armed CPI(M) cadre in Bijapur District.

Ÿ1st January - Chhattisgarh: Maoists torch a road roller and a motorcycle under Tadoki Police Station limits in Kanker District.

Ÿ2nd January – Chhattisgarh: A Police Assistant Constable killed by suspected CPI-Maoist cadres with bow and arrow in Bijapur District.

Ÿ2nd January – Kerala: A stone crusher unit in Kannur District attacked by CPI-Maoist cadres. Employees threatened at gunpoint and later the unit vandalised and set on fire.

Ÿ2nd January – Kerala: Government office in Kannur district, vandalised and ransacked by a group of Maoists.

Ÿ3rd January – Chhattisgarh: Two troopers belonging to CoBRA unit injured, on explosion of a pressure bomb planted by CPI-Maoists, during a combing operation in Sukma District.

Ÿ3rd January – Bihar: A CPI-Maoist 'sub-zonal commander', arrested from Satletba forest under Kotoria Police Station limits in Banka District.

Ÿ4th January – Odisha: At least five CPI-Maoist cadres suspected to have been killed in an anti-Maoist operation, involving Greyhound personnel of Andhra Pradesh Police, Odisha's SOG and Odisha State Police in Malkangiri District. Bodies not recovered, so deaths not official.

Ÿ4th January – Odisha: Maoists kill two tribals in Malkangiri District. After conducting a 'praja court' in the village, the two villagers were tied to a tree and beaten to death.

Ÿ5th January – Odisha: A former Naxal 'commander', second in command in the OMP, surrenders in Berhampur town of Ganjam District of Odisha.

Ÿ5th January – Chhattisgarh: CPI-Maoist cadres storm the residence of Chhattisgarh Congress leader Manturam Pawar and attack his guards, injuring two of them, in Kanker District.


2015


Ÿ5th January – Telangana: Around 30 CPI-Maoist cadres go on a rampage setting ablaze six vehicles in Khammam District of Telangana near the Telangana-Chhattisgarh border.

Ÿ6th January – Jharkhand: Two suspected Naxals, killed by CPI-Maoist cadres allegedly over a dispute regarding sharing of levy in West Singhbhum District.

Ÿ6th January – Chhattisgarh: A tribal killed by 'unidentified persons' in Dantewada District. Police register a case against "unknown, uniformed and armed Maoists" for killing the tribal on suspicion of being a 'Police informer'.

Ÿ7th January – Chhattisgarh: Four Maoists, including a woman, surrender in Kondagaon District, while another surrenders in Dantewada District.

Ÿ7th January – Bihar: Shrawan Das, an alleged arms supplier to the CPI-Maoist, arrested by Special Task Force in Muzaffarpur District.

Ÿ8-9th January – Telangana: Four teams of CPI-Maoist cadres consisting of 12 members, including the Area Committee member, enter Adilabad District in Telangana from Chhattisgarh with the aim of recruiting cadres.

Ÿ10th January – Odisha: Four armed Maoist cadres, including three women, surrender in Malkangiri District.Ÿ10th January – Chhattisgarh: One Police constable killed and three others grievously injured in an encounter with the CPI-

Maoist in Narayanpur District.Ÿ10th January – Bihar: A group of about 20 armed CPI-Maoist cadres attack a road construction company's camp site at

Motipur in Muzaffarpur District . Nine heavy vehicles and machineries worth about INR 30 million destroyed.Ÿ11th January – Jharkhand: Three suspected CPI-Maoist cadres killed during a three hour long encounter with security forces

in Hazaribag District.Ÿ11th January – Jharkhand: An 'area commander' of the PLFI arrested from West Singhbhum District. Ÿ13th January – Andhra Pradesh: An active member of the Galikonda 'area committee' of the CPI-Maoist, arrested at

Chintapalli mandal while a member of the Kalimela 'area committee', who was active in Odisha till recently, and 11 militia members from Pedavalasa area surrender before the Police in Vishakhapatnam District.

Ÿ14th January – Jharkhand: A self-styled 'area commander' of the Tritiya Prastuti Committee-2 and one of his close aides arrested in Palamau District.

Ÿ15th January – Jharkhand: A CPI-Maoist cadre, and three PLFI cadres active in Latehar, Garhwa and Khunti District surrender at Dhurwa Police Headquarters in Ranchi District, coinciding with the visit of K. Vijay Kumar, Senior Security Adviser of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs.

Ÿ16th January – Chhattisgarh: Seven CPI-Maoist sympathisers surrender before authorities.Ÿ16th January – Odisha: Five to seven CPI-Maoist cadres killed in an encounter with Greyhounds of Andhra Pradesh Police

and Odisha Special Operations Group (SOG) in Koraput District. Ÿ17th January – Chhattisgarh: A jawan of the STF, identified as constable Mahendra Singh killed in an encounter with Maoists

in Sukma District. Ÿ18th January – Jharkhand: A CPI-Maoist cadre, killed during an encounter with security forces in East Singhbhum District. A

pistol and five live cartridges recovered from his possession.Ÿ19th January – Chhattisgarh: One Maoist killed in gunbattle with Police in Bijapur DistrictŸ20th January – Chhattisgarh: One constable injured in pressure bomb explosion near Murdonda village of Bijapur District Ÿ20th January – Chhattisgarh: Suspected CPI-Maoist cadres attack Auxiliary constable, at a marketplace at Pollamapalli area

in Sukma DistrictŸ20th January – Chhattisgarh: A joint team of Dantewada and Bijapur Police bust a Maoist camp in Hurrepal forests of

Dantewada DistrictŸ20th January – Chhattisgarh: Three Maoists surrender before the Police in Dornapal town of Sukma District Ÿ20th January – Bihar: Naxals set two trucks on fire in a village near Gaya District Ÿ20th January – Telangana: A CPI-Maoist couple high on the wanted list, surrender before Police in Warangal District


2015


MitKat Recommendations: Organisations operating in Maoist infested areas must carry out active liaison for intelligence inputs and harden their security adequately to safeguard their people, assets and operations. Professional advice should be sought from security consultants with a successful track record of operating in dangerous and challenging territories.

Ÿ20th January – Jharkhand: Suspected CPI-Maoist cadres kill two persons, including an SPO, near Bundu in Ranchi District Ÿ21st January – Andhra Pradesh: 4 sympathisers of the CPI-Maoist militia surrender before the SP in East Godavari DistrictŸ22nd January – Maharashtra: A senior woman CPI-Maoist 'deputy commander' arrested in Kangadi village on Gadchiroli-

Rajnandgaon border by the Gadchiroli District Police Ÿ22nd January – Maharashtra: CPI-Maoist cadres set on fire 14 vehicles of Andhra Pradesh-based private company engaged

in road construction in Dhanora tehsil of Gadchiroli District Ÿ23rd January – Jharkhand: Security Forces arrest a CPI-Maoist 'zonal commander' in Giridih District. One country-made

pistol and live cartridges seized from his possession Ÿ23rd January – Jharkhand: CPI-Maoist kill an 18-year-old girl at a village in Khunti DistrictŸ24rd January – Odisha: Suspected CPI-Maoist cadres trigger an explosion on the Visakhapatnam-Raipur railway line at

Munikhol near Muniguda Railway Station in Rayagada District, injuring one railway staff and damaging a portion of the track leading to disruption of train services on the route

Although the past few years have reinforced the notion that CPI-Maoist has ceased to be the force it used to be, there is little hope that in 2015, the outfit would halt pursuing its strategy of carrying out intermittent raids as well as expanding into newer areas.

While Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand accounted for 67 per cent of fatalities in 2014; Odisha, Maharashtra and Bihar are the other states that reported the remaining fatalities. The CPI-Maoist, which once wielded influence over almost one-third of the country's geographical expanse, now operates with a constrained presence in these five states. A sudden expansion in the CPI-Maoist's area of operation is unlikely in 2015. The outfit would mostly be involved in guarding its remaining influence in these states.

Among the many denominators that point at the state's tightening grip over LWE is the former's ability to carry out largely peaceful elections in various states (Jharkhand went for an assembly elections in November and December 2014). The operational weakness of the CPI-Maoist, however, has not curtailed its ability to carry out periodic attacks resulting in high casualty among the security forces. In fact, such attacks would remain part of the CPI-Maoist's continuing attempt of seeking relevance, rebuilding its organisational strength, and inflicting setbacks on the security forces.

One of the less highlighted aspects of the CPI-Maoist's activities in 2014 was its foray into Kerala. With a handful of incidents involving attacks on a forest department office and an outpost, and KFC and McDonald's outlets, the Maoists have announced their presence in the southern state. The CPI-Maoist would continue its attempts to spread its activities into new areas in 2015.

As of the beginning of 2015, the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs is pushing the state governments to appoint "officers with zeal" as district magistrates and superintendents of police in the extremism-affected districts. Even as the security forces register some successes in ending extremist domination over select areas, bureaucratic inertia in kick-starting governance has remained one of the primary hindrances in cementing success.

Naxal trends in 2015

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