iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com Indias Neighborhood: Maldives, The Sinking Country The second multi-party presidential elections took place in September 2013.There were four leading candidates in the fray: former president Mohamed Nasheed representing the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP); recent president Mohamed Waheed of Gaumee Ithihaad Party (GIP); Abdulla Yameen (half-brother of former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom) of the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM); and Gasim Ibrahim of the Jumhoree Party.Nasheed was contesting on the main plank of restoring democracy, development and diplomacy.After dramatic twists and turns in terms of postponements and annulments, Abdulla Yameen, a four-time parliamentarian and half-brother of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, was sworn in as the sixth President of Maldives on 17 November 2013. He got 51.39 per cent of the votes, while former president Mohammed Nasheed got 48.61 per cent of the votes. Despite trailing Nasheed by more than 17 per cent (46.93 per cent for Nasheed vs. 29.72 per cent for Yameen) in the first round,Yameen managed to win the second round mainly because of support from a wider coalition of parties: Maldives Development Alliance, Adhaalath Party, Jumhooree Party, GIP and Islamic Democratic Party. Interestingly, this was a repeat of the 2008 trend when the second-placed candidate Nasheed went on to win the presidential run-off with the support of several parties against the then incumbent Abdul Gayoom. Despite losing by a thin margin (6,022 votes), the MDP leader Nasheed graciously and sincerely accepted defeat. He neither challenged the elections in a court of law nor took to streets to force another round of elections.Since the Maldivian economy was mostly outward-looking, with tourism and fisheries contributing about 50 per cent of the GDP, the global economic slowdown had a severe impact in addition to the political crisis. Internally, the issue was high government expenditure. Unemployment was another serious issue staring at the government with the unemployment rate at a two-figure mark in 2013.The ouster of foreign entities like GMR and Nexbis did not go down well with the business community.Lashkar-e-Toiba, through its charitable front organisation, Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq, has established a foothold especially in the southern parts of Maldives in the garb of relief operations after the 2004 tsunami. Events in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan have also influenced Maldivians towards radicalisation. Lack of adequate educational and employment opportunities have been pushing the Maldivian youth towards jihadist groups.Ali Jaleel, who was involved in the 27 May 2009 suicide attack on the ISI headquarters in Lahore, was a Maldivian. Many remote islands of Maldives are also ideal for instituting training facilities, especially on maritime aspects. The Local Maldivians superior Maldives on Ground iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com knowledge of the sea is a major asset to any terror group that wishes to employ maritime terrorism.Diplomatically, the image of the country suffered a huge dent due to the political uncertainty of the past two years. For a brief period, the Commonwealth placed Maldives in the CMAG (Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group) agenda, implying its suspension from the grouping.India maintained strict neutrality, though it nudged all parties to hold free and fair elections. New Delhis only concern was political stability in the atoll country.The multi-party democratic elections in the Maldives at present seem to be a victim of the role played by the deep state in Maldives and the extra-regional forces who want their presence even if it means scuttling the nascent democracy in the Maldives. India Maldives In 1988, when a few mercenaries attempted power capture in Maldives, India had averted a coup in Maldives by sending troops at short notice at the request of then President Gayoom.That Indian military intervention had come after the 1987 induction of an Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka at the Sri Lankan governments request.The two episodes (IPKF and Maldives) established that India had legitimate interests in the region and that India was looked upon by its southern neighbors as a provider of security. Maldives is a hot competitive spot for influence between India and China, aided by Pakistan. The democratic system instituted in Maldives in the last few years has not yet stabilized and democratic institutions have not been working smoothly. Maldives location in the Indian Ocean is critical for India. The growth of religious extremism in Maldives has been a matter of concern for India, as has been the increase in external influence. The Indian prime minister visited Maldives for the 17th SAARC summit in November 2011. During the visit, India announced a stand-by credit facility of $100 million for Maldives and promised help in setting up the Maldives Police Academy. India subscribed fully to the $100 million in bonds issued by the Maldives monetary authority. In the defence and security sphere, Indias assistance to Maldives National Defence Force (MDNF) in training, supply of equipment, capacity building, joint patrolling, aerial and maritime surveillance and medical treatment has been immense. MNDF personnel have been availing, on an average, 35 courses annually. India and Maldives did not witness any problem in bilateral economic interactions until GMR issue came to the fore. India was caught unawares on 27 November 2012 when Maldives announced the termination of a USD 511 million project with the Indian infrastructure company GMR Infrastructure Limited (GIL). Maldives was considered far away from Islamic radicalism.However, in the recent years, Maldivians in increasing numbers have been drawn towards Pakistan-based jihadist groups. Lately, the Chinese have remained among the top visitors to the Maldives. Beijing has evinced a keen interest in developing infrastructure in the Ihavandhoo, Marao and Maarandhoo Islands of the Maldives. Therefore, it is not without reasons that the current iastoss.in harveersinh@gmail.com dispensation in Male holds the view that it will be to the detriment of the Maldives to not engage with China. What India Should do: oIndia should send out a clear signal that any developments in Maldives are of concern for Indias security. oIndia and Maldives should establish a security dialogue mechanism so that Maldives security is ensured and Indias security interests are addressed. oIndia should extend a comprehensive assistance package to the Maldivian government to address its developmental and security sector needs.