india-china standoff and north korean crisis impact on ......1 andrew leung international...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
International Consultants & Investments Andrew Leung
India-China Standoff and North Korean CrisisImpact on OBOR
Andrew K P Leung, SBS, FRSA International and Independent China Strategist
A presentation to the Founding Chairmen Group, Executive Global Network (EGN), Hong Kong
Friday, 18 August , 2017
![Page 2: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Disclaimer
All materials contained in this presentation, including any analysis, comments, remarks, opinions and pointers are for information, debate and discussions ONLY. No warranty of their accuracy, completeness, timeliness or reliability is implied.
Any reliance on these materials in any way assumes total exemption of any liability whatsoever of Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited and Andrew K P Leung including all their current and future Affiliates, Associates or Assigns.
2
![Page 3: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Incipient fear of China’s encircling “String of Pearls”
![Page 4: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Suspicion of China-Pakistan partnership
![Page 5: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Long-standing border dispute flares up with sudden incursion “on behalf of Bhutan”
![Page 6: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
China’s Doklam roadbuilding seen to threaten the Siliguri Corridor Bhutan has no diplomatic ties with China but enjoys diplomatic and military support from India.
Chicken’s neck
![Page 7: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Low-level standoffs on high grounds
![Page 8: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Ladakh tit-for-tat (15th August) a mild Chinese warning?
** Pangong Lake
![Page 9: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Another light-hearted, if provocative, warning
![Page 10: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
But not taken by India as light-hearted warning
![Page 11: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Indian resolve
![Page 12: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
A debate between China and India on CGTN
![Page 13: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Preparations for war – much sterner warning
![Page 14: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
China’s possible trump cards up its sleeve Upstream water Attrition through border tensions Leveraging India’s Achilles Heel
![Page 15: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
China no stomach for hot war before 19th Party Congress while India unsure of victory
![Page 16: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Diplomatic efforts continue behind the scene
![Page 17: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
North Korea calls Trump’s bluff
17
Decades of mistrust with continual US hidden agenda of regime change have convinced North Korea that nuclear deterrence is the only effective insurance policy.
![Page 18: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Iran also wants to develop ICBM capacities to counter the US
![Page 19: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
North Korean war could escalate into regional, if not global war
![Page 20: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
North Korean satellites suspected of directed-energy ambitions
![Page 21: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Kim wants cast-iron guarantee for regime survival• Immediate freeze of escalation on both sides• Negotiation for Six-Party non-aggression treaty involving US and North Korea• Gradual verifiable freeze of North Korean nuclear and ICBM program• In exchange for equivalent, gradual lifting of sanctions • Milestone awards of aid and investments to grow North Korean economy
![Page 22: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
China doesn’t want a destabilized Korean Peninsula Kong Xuanyou, Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs, new Chinese envoy on North Korea, a native Korean speaker,
UN approved sanctions costing North Korea $1bn (£770m) a year in revenue.
Trump vows to trigger military “fire and fury”, “locked and loaded”.
China stops importing coal, iron, iron ore and seafood from North Korea = 2/3 of North Korean trade
China confirms neutrality if North Korea attacks first but would intervene if us forces regime change militarily.
On 15 August, Kim Jong-un decided to hold off test firing towards Guam
![Page 23: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
North Korea possible for economic transformation
South Korea Central Bank estimated that in 2016 North Korea’s economy grew by 3.9%, fastest in 17 years v 2015 when economy contracted by 1.1% largely due to drought.
China trade with North Korea grew over 10% to $2.55 billion first six months 2017, but maintained no violations of any sanctions. China in February decided to suspend coal imports from North Korea.
![Page 24: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Story of the Vietnam War rings a bell?
24
![Page 25: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
How the North Korean conundrum can be resolved Exclusive live interview on RT on 3 August, 2017
![Page 26: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Sound and fury is no long term solution
![Page 27: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Short of WW3, OBOR poised to drive global economy
![Page 28: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
The Maritime Silk Road
28
Connects Policy, Infrastructure, Trade, Finance and People-to-People with some 64 countries. 62% of world population. 30% of world GDP. Potential investment estimated at $5 trillion = Many times Marshal Plan ($120b in today’s prices)
OBJECTIVE
• To enhance global clout
• To expand trade and new markets for slowing economy.
• To channel excess capacity.
• To facilitate RMB internationalization
• To balance China’s regional disparities
• To balance against containment of China in Asia Pacific
![Page 29: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
With six overland economic corridors (Belts)
![Page 30: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Potential to link up the whole world
![Page 31: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Show me the money
• Silk Road Fund ( $40 b of initial capital),China Development Bank + Export and Import Bank of China.
• $113 b extra funding promised by Xi at OBOR Summit 15 May, 2017
• Since launched by President Xi in Kazakhstan 2013, about 50 Chinese SOEs have invested in some 1,700 projects
• Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)—registered capital of $100 b —and Shanghai-based New Development Bank—$50 b starting capital—also major financiers. In 2016, AIIB approved $1.7 b in loans to 9 OBOR projects.
• Investment of > US$900 b already committed for infrastructure networks.
• Annual Chinese lending (mostly commercial banks) to other OBOR countries around $130b in recent years.
• China is also seeking financial cooperation with other OBOR nations including private sector.
31
![Page 32: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
OBOR is also about people-to-people connectivity
32
![Page 33: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Linking with Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
33
![Page 34: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
GBA innovative industries linked with Made in China 2025
34
![Page 35: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
High-speed rail and HZMB create 2-hour return megalopolis
35
![Page 36: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Plucking into high-speed network for whole of China
36
Expected to be fully operational late 2018, pending legislation on Joint HK Check Point, a controversial subject thanks to divisive politics. Latest polls and relatively calm opposition suggest over 60% public support the Joint Check Point facility, despite concerns.
![Page 37: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
New CE and loss of Opposition’s veto powers augur well for better governance
37
![Page 38: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Massive reserves enable spigot to open for better housing, education, and pensions
38
![Page 39: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Prospects for lesser socio-political tension promise a better HK Tomorrow
39
![Page 40: India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on ......1 Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments India-China Standoff and North Korean Crisis Impact on OBOR Andrew](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071217/604d5fcc88e09f63b205b165/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40
Andrew Leung International Consultants & Investments
Thank you
Andrew K P Leung, SBS, FRSAwww.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com
Prominent international and independent China Strategist. Over 40 years’ experience in senior Hong Kong Government positions. China Futures Fellow, Massachusetts Berkshire Publishing Group; Brain Trust Member, IMD Lausanne Evian Group; Gerson Lehrman Group Council Member; Thomas Reuters Expert; Senior Analyst with Wikistrat. Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs. Advisory Board Member, e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law. Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus. Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School. Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association. Formerly Governing Council Member, King's College London; Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute of Nottingham University; Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School (2005-10). In the 1980s, oversaw Hong Kong’s industrial transmigration into Mainland China and helped launched Quality Campaign and Technology Centre. Invited by US government to month-long visit to brief Fortune 50 CEOs personally, including one-on-one with Steve Forbes of Forbes Magazine, on China post-1989. In 2002, invited by Prince Andrew for a private briefing leading to HRH’s first visit to China as UK’s Ambassador for Trade and Investment. Advised on cross-cultural management in Lenovo's take-over of IBM Computers. Invited as Editor-at-large for an international consultancy on China's energies. Regular contributor, commentator, and speaker on China at conferences and on live television worldwide including National Geographic. Topics include trade, finance, economics, geopolitics, international relations, science and technology, sustainable industrial development, and green cities. Graduate qualifications from University of London, postgraduate qualifications from Cambridge University, PMD from the Harvard Business School, and solicitors' qualifying examination certificate from the Law Society, London. Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002. Awarded Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in July 2005 Hong Kong Honors List.