india auto & auto ancillaries maruti suzuki india ltd

Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.

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Anish Rankawat Research Analyst, Auto & Auto Ancillaries

+91-022-42159053 [email protected]

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Company Update

India I Auto & Auto Ancillaries

26 April, 2021

REDUCE Price: Rs6,676

Target Price: Rs6,926 Forecast return: 4%

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Challenges ahead: SUVs, Diesel and Costs

Financial and valuation summary

We are not comfortable with Maruti losing 330bps of market share in last 1 year as it reminds us of the FY12’s loss of 680bps. The reason is same – aggressive competition. Additionally, we believe that reasons like a) Pulling out of diesel segment (~16% of company’s sales in FY20) and b) weak product portfolio in the growing SUV segment, will make it difficult to recover. Hence, we expect Maruti to continue to lose share if it doesn’t address the above issues specially when there is a storm of new launches coming in the UV segment. In FY21-23E period, over a low base, we expect a strong volume led recovery. We acknowledge that company has a track record of launching blockbuster products and has the best network in the country, but with multiple challenges we refrain from giving a premium valuation. We arrive at a target price of Rs 6,926 by giving a multiple of 25x (10 yr average) to our FY23E EPS of Rs 277. It is currently trading at 24x FY23E eps.

Maruti’s launch pipeline has been no match to the competition Over the last 3 years, there has been almost 35 new models launched in the PV industry out of which 4 were from Maruti, quite low from a market leader perspective. Also, 75% of these new launched were in the UV segment whereas from Maruti there were only 2 UVs. Going forward we are expecting 20+ launches in FY22 in the UV segment itself, while only 3 from Maruti. This is a recipe for market share loss.

Double whammy- UVs and diesel UV penetration in PVs has reached to 39% in FY21 from 12.6%, 10 years ago. A trend seen globally as well. There is a slew of launches coming in this segment in the near term which will take the penetration even further. On the other hand, Maruti’s market share in the segment has declined from 28% in FY19 to 21.6% in FY21 owing to weak product portfolio. Also, Diesel remains a significant choice in the UV segment (ex-Maruti) with more than 45% of share. In this situation, the odds are against the company since it has pulled out of the diesel segment.

Adverse mix and High commodity prices are key overhang on margins We expect a 17% volume CAGR for FY21-23E on a low base. We expect ASP decline in FY21 due to adverse mix and then a 1.5%/1% YoY growth in FY22/FY23E. We expect margins to improve due to operating leverage to 9.3%/11%. PAT growth est. for the period is 36% CAGR. Our RM index suggests that costs have sequentially increased by 8%/20%/16% in last three quarters of FY21. The full effect of this will be felt in 4QFY21 and 1HFY22 in the form of lower margins with limited pass on opportunity.

Fairly valued Owing to pressure on market share and margins, we restrict the target one year forward PER multiple to its 10 yr average of 25x. Using this on our FY23E EPS of Rs277, we arrive at our target price of Rs6,926 and we assume coverage with REDUCE rating. Stock is currently trading at 24x FY23E earnings.

Market Data

Bloomberg: MSIL IN

52 week H/L: 8,400/4,638

Market cap: Rs2016.7bn

Shares Outstanding: 302.1mn

Free float: 43.6%

Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 1,126,182 Source: Bloomberg

Changes in the report

Rating: NA

Target price: NA

EPS: NA Source: Centrum Broking

MSIL relative to Nifty 50

Source: Bloomberg

Shareholding pattern

Dec-20 Sep-20 Jun-20 Mar-20

Promoter 56.4 56.4 56.3 56.3

FIIs 23.1 21.9 21.5 21.6

DIIs 15.4 16.4 16.7 16.3

Public/other 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8

Source: BSE

YE Mar (Rs mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Revenues 830,265 716,904 659,908 821,857 926,603

EBITDA 109,993 74,276 53,471 80,935 108,317

EBITDA margin (%) 12.8 9.8 7.7 9.3 11.0

Adj. Net profit 75,006 57,756 45,551 64,219 83,663

Adj. EPS (Rs) 248.4 191.2 150.8 212.6 277.0

EPS growth (%) (2.9) (23.0) (21.1) 41.0 30.3

PE (x) 26.9 34.9 44.3 31.4 24.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.9 27.0 36.9 23.6 16.8

PBV (x) 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3

RoE (%) 17.1 12.2 9.1 11.9 14.2

RoCE (%) 17.1 12.4 9.2 12.0 14.3

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 26 April, 2021

Centrum Institutional Research 2

Thesis Snapshot

Centrum vs consensus Valuations

YE Mar (Rs bn) Centrum

FY22E Consensus

FY22E Variance

(%) Centrum

FY23E Consensus

FY23E Variance

(%)

Revenue 870,272 887,455 -1.9 984,700 1,013,026 -2.8

EBITDA 80,935 94,491 -14.3 108,317 120,711 -10.3

EBITDA margin 9.3 10.6 -135 bps 11.0 11.9 -92 bps

Adj. PAT 64,219 74,923 -14.3 83,663 95,454 -12.4


Maruti Suzuki versus Nifty 50

1m 6m 1 year

MSIL IN (1.6) (5.4) 32.3

Nifty 50 0.1 23.4 58.7

Source: Bloomberg, NSE

Key assumptions Y/E Mar FY22E FY23E

Volume (Units) 1,778,590 1,992,021

YoY (%) 22.0 12.0

Revenue (Rs Mn) 870,272 984,700

YoY (%) 24.8 13.1

EBITDA Margin (%) 9.3 11.0

PAT (Rs Mn) 64,219 83,663

YoY (%) 41.0 30.3

Source: Centrum Broking

We acknowledge that company has a track record of launching blockbuster products and has the best network in the country, but with multiple challenges we refrain from giving a premium valuation. Hence we value the stock at its 10 year average PER multiple of 25x as compared to a higher 33x multiple in the last 5 years. We arrive at a target price of Rs 6,926 by giving a multiple of 25x (10 yr. average) to our FY23E EPS of Rs 277. It is currently trading at 24x FY23E earnings.

Valuations Rs/share

FY23 EPS 277

10 yr. avg Multiple 25x

Target Price 6,926

Upside 4%

Rating REDUCE

P/E mean and standard deviation

EV/EBITDA mean and standard deviation

Peer comparison

Source: Company, Centrum Broking

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Company Mkt Cap CAGR (FY21-23E) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY20

(Rs mn) Sales EBITDA EPS FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E RoE (%) ROCE (%) Div. Yield

Maruti Suzuki 2,016,717 18.8 42.3 35.5 44.3 31.4 24.1 36.9 23.6 16.8 12.2 12.4 0.9

Eicher Motors 633,401 28.0 42.1 46.7 41.1 24.1 19.1 29.5 16.7 13.1 19.3 18.7 0.5 Hero MotoCorp 572,180 18.3 26.2 26.8 20.4 14.9 12.7 13.9 10.1 8.3 26.9 21.9 3.1

TVS Motors 253,126 21.8 32.6 50.6 46.8 27.0 20.6 19.3 14.2 11.4 17.9 13.5 0.8 Bajaj Auto 1,062,700 22.6 24.1 21.5 22.5 17.7 15.2 20.3 15.6 13.2 25.6 32.5 3.3



Why is Maruti losing market share? Over the last 2 years, Maruti has lost 350bps of market share in the PV segment from the highs of 51.2% in FY19. Out of that 330 was lost in last one year itself. The primary reason for this is draught of new launches whereas the competition has been pretty busy. For instance, over the last 3 years, there has been almost 35 new models launched in the PV industry whereas there were only 5 from Maruti which is quite low from a market leader perspective. The products were - It’s not that Maruti hasn’t done well with less launches, but this time 3 of them were relaunches (WagonR, Swift and Ertiga), one was a variant (XL6) and the last one was S-Presso which didn’t garner much volumes.

A similar situation came in the FY11-12 period when the competition got aggressive in its new launches. These launches included models like - Hyundai Eon, Toyota Etios, Nissan Sunny, Honda Brio, Mahindra Van and XUV500. Maruti lost 680bps of market share in 1 year to 38.6%. Subsequently, it launched some super hit products like - Baleno, Vitara Brezza, Celerio, New Dzire, Ciaz and gained one way share till FY19 to 51.2%.

Exhibit 1: Maruti’s market share peaked out in FY19

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking, Industry data

Exhibit 2: New launch intensity has been increasing, more in UV segment

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking, Models launched in the second half of the year are counted in the subsequent year to indicate the full effect of sales

46.0 46.2 46.1 46.146.9

44.9 45.4

38.639.4

42.1

45.046.8 47.4

50.051.2 51.1

47.7

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

Maruti's Market share in PVs (%)

Agressive Competion Launches -Hyundai Eon, Toyota Etios, NissanSunny, Honda Brio, Mahindra Van and XUV500

Maruti launched superhit products like - Baleno, VItara Brezza, Celerio, New Dzire, Ciaz

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New model launches play a significant role in the PV industry

Over the last decade, almost 120 new products have been launched in the passenger vehicle segment. Almost 40% of them have been discontinued by now. In the remaining products, 22-25% of the models have trivial sales volumes. So, about 45% of the new launches are significant as per this analysis. Also, in the top 20 models sold in FY21, almost half of them were launched in last 3 years itself. Hence, new model launches is an important factor in the industry to gain market share.

Exhibit 3: Status of the ~120 new models that were launched in last one decade

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking

However, we believe there are structural reasons which could make it difficult for Maruti to recover its market share. Namely a) Pulling out of diesel segment which was almost 16% of company’s sales in FY20 and b) weak product portfolio in the Mid and Compact SUV segment.

We expect these reasons would continue to impact share going forward unless Maruti addresses them in the new launches. In fact, Maruti has lost marginal share in car segments as well in FY21, as Tata Motors has become aggressive.

50 16 54

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

New Models in last 10 years

New Models in last 10 years

Discontinued 50

Insignificant sales (<5k pa) 16

Running and relevant 54



Utility Vehicles: India following the global shift

The pace of increase of UV penetration has accelerated significantly in last couple of year owing to new products from players like KIA Motors, Hyundai, and Tata Motors. Historically as well, we have seen spurts in its penetration in years when launch pipeline was strong (FY13, FY17, FY18).

Exhibit 4: UV share has increased significantly in last 2 years owing to good number of launches

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking, Industry data

There are 20+ new launches expected in the year which will be the highest ever in any year so far.

Exhibit 5: Intensity of New launches in UVs has been increasing, FY22E launches is a staggering 20+


16.7 17.0 16.0 15.814.4 14.0

12.614.0

20.8 21.0 21.2 21.0

25.028.0 27.9

34.0

39.0

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

UVs Penetration in PVs (%)

2

53 3

54

64

11

8

23

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E

New launches in Uvs (including variants, refreshes and relaunches)



Exhibit 6: Storm of New UV launches expected in FY22

Manufacturer Model Type Expected Price (Rs '00,000)

TATA HBX Mini SUV 4.5-7.5

Ford Unnamed Mini SUV 7-10

Renault Kiger Compact SUV 5.5-10*

Citroen Unnamed Compact SUV 7-10

Maruti Suzuki New Vitara Brezza Compact SUV 8-12

M&M New TUV300 Compact SUV 9-12

Maruti Suzuki Jimny Compact SUV 10-12

MG ZS Compact SUV 10-16

Ford New Ecosport Compact SUV 11-13

M&M eXUV300 Compact SUV - Electric 13-18

M&M New Bolero Mid SUV 8-10

Force New Gurkha Mid SUV 10-12

Skoda Kushaq Mid SUV 10-16

VW Tiagun Mid SUV 10-16

Maruti Suzuki Grand Vitara Mid SUV 10-16

M&M New Scorpio Mid SUV 12-16

Ford Unnamed Mid SUV 14-20

Citroen C5 Aircross Mid SUV 30*

M&M XUV700 Large SUV 13-20

VW New Tiguan Large SUV 25-30

Jeep Compass 7 seat version 30-35

Hyundai Alcazar 7 seat larger Creta 13-20

KIA Unnamed MPV 11-17

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking, *launched

Movement to SUV’s is a global trend and it’s quite visible in key regions like USA, Europe and China. As per JATO, global SUV penetration increased from 22.4% in 2014 to 36.4 in 2018. US leads with 65% penetration (75% including Pickups), followed by China at 50%+ and Europe with 40%+ penetration. In India it has reached 39% in FY21 and we expect it to increase further given the huge list of new launches expected in FY22

However, Maruti has lost significant share in last 2 years owing to increased competitive intensity from both existing and new players. Maruti’s launches in this segments has been lower than the industry with 5 launches in last 9 years and only 2 or 3 expected launches in FY22 out of a total of more than 20 expected in the industry. We expect this to further impact on the company’s market share and it does not augur well as the UV segment is gaining share over the cars.



Exhibit 7: Maruti’s market share in UV segment has been declining in last 2 years.

Source: Bloomberg, Company Data, Centrum Broking, Industry data

Exhibit 8: Industry mix is moving towards SUVs, mainly in Mid and Compact SUV………

Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, Centrum Broking, Industry data

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Segments share in Industry (%) Maruti Share in the segment(%)

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FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

Ind

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ix (

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Small Car Mid and Compact Sedan Compact SUV MUV Mid SUV Vans Others



Exhibit 9: …….whereas Maruti’s mix is moving back towards small cars


Exhibit 10: Maruti is losing market share in the growing Compact+Mid SUV segment


74 72

65 6562

60 58 57 5761

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Maruti Share in the segment(%) Segments share in Industry (RHS)(%)



Diesel will remain relevant in the competition

Diesel engines had majority of the share in the PV segment until FY14 given the high subsidy on diesel fuel prices and better efficiency over petrol engines. Considering the lower cost of usage and a small premium on the vehicle prices, Diesel vehicles made more sense back then. But, over the years, subsidy kept getting lower and premium of the vehicle prices started getting higher to a point that the economics didn’t work unless the vehicle is used as a taxi or is regularly used personally for long distances.

BS6 transition was the last straw as diesel vehicle prices increased significantly (10-15%) as compared to petrol (2-4%). This was also the time when Maruti decided to withdraw from the Diesel segment. Models like Vitara Brezza and S-Cross were only available in diesel till FY20 and models like Dzire, Ertiga had almost half of the sales in diesel. As a result, we saw a big drop in the Diesel share in the industry in FY21.

Exhibit 11: Share of diesel vehicles have been declining with increasing gap of vehicles prices and decreasing gap in fuel prices

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking, Industry data, 11M data for FY21

Diesel PV share dropped by almost 11 percentage points between FY19 and FY21 to 17%. However, diesel remains a significant fuel in the SUV and larger car segments. The drop in diesel share in the industry, ex-Maruti, is not that steep (see Exhibit 9).

Exhibit 12: Diesel share Ex Maruti

Source: Company Data, Industry data, Centrum Broking, *9M data

Exhibit 13: Diesel share in segments Ex Maruti

Source: Company Data, Industry data, Centrum Broking, *9M data

We believe the FY21 was a reset year for the diesel segment, largely due to BS6 transition and with Maruti exiting segment. We expect the transiting to be slower in the coming year mainly as diesel has a significant share in the growing segments like Mid-size, Compact SUV and MPV.

5351

4743

40 4036

29

17

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

Diesel Share in PVs (%)

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31.5

FY19 FY21*

Diesel Share in PVs (%) (Ex Maruti)

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Hatchback Sedan MPV CompactSUV

Mid SUV Large SUV

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Exhibit 14: Change in industry mix between FY19 and FY21

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking, Industry data, *9M data

Exhibit 15: MSIL has lost share in expanding segments

Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking, Industry data, *9M data

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Costs increase to play spoil sport in recovery RM costs have sequentially increased by 8%/20%/16% in last three quarters of FY21

Basic raw material prices have risen quite sharply in last 3 quarters which has impacted margins in the industry. OEM’s have struggled to pass on the prices as the industry is still not out of the woods in terms of sales. PV industry degrew by 3% in FY21 after declining by 18% in FY20.

Our index suggests that RM costs have sequentially increased by 8%/20%/16% in last three quarters of FY21. The full effect of this will be felt in 4QFY21 and 1QFY22 in the form of lower margins. Our Metals Analyst, Ashish Kejriwal, expects fall of Rs6,000/t in steel prices from Q4FY21 average and 5-7% in aluminium and zinc prices in FY22. Which are still at a higher levels and are expected to keep the pressure on margins. However, there is good momentum in the PV industry demand and it is expected to grow significantly over a very low base and after 2 years of degrowth. This could provide an opportunity for passing on in the industry.

However, we expect Maruti to underperform the industry due to increased competitive intensity and with no presence in diesel engine segment. Also, Maruti’s product mix is moving towards smaller cars which impacts the company’s ASP’s and margins.

Exhibit 16: Our RM index suggests that RM costs have sequentially increased by 8%/20%/16% in last three quarters of FY21

Source: Bloomberg, Steel mint, indexmundi, Centrum Broking

How to read the Index – We have considered the basic raw materials used in an average car i.e. HRC Steel, Aluminium, Plastics (Polypropylene) and rubber. The average weight in with these materials are used have been assumed to be 900/200/150/40 kgs respectively. HRC prices are of Mumbai. For rubber we have assumed R14 and R16 tyres as standard with average weight of 8kgs per tyre.

Following are the trends in the raw materials individually.

100 101 98 99106 106

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RM Index (1QFY16=100)



Exhibit 17: Steel HRC

Source: Steel mint, Centrum Broking

Exhibit 18: Aluminium


Exhibit 19: Rubber

Source: Indexmundi, Centrum Broking

Exhibit 20: Brent Crude


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Financials and Valuation Financials

After a washout first quarter in FY21, Indian passenger vehicle industry has come back strongly to close the year at 2.5% degrowth. This has benefitted Maruti’s recovery as well as its domestic volumes degrew by 8.5% YoY. However, company’s sales to Toyota and LCV segment sales increased in the year. Also, exports performed better than domestic market with 5.9% degrowth. As a results total sales volume for the year degrew by 6.7% YoY to 1.458mn units. Almost 1 mn sales came from last 6 months itself which indicates that the momentum is good. Going forward, we expect a 17% volume CAGR for FY21-23E driven by strong demand in the PV segment. Under the Alliance with Toyota, Maruti is supplying 2 models so far – Baleno and Brezza. There is a possibility that 2 more models will join the list – Ertiga and Ciaz. This could add to the volume growth.

Exhibit 21: Model-wise sales(units) trend and estimates, share of small cars to remain high

Segment Model FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

Mini Alto 258,539 259,401 190,814 158,992 182,841 201,125

S-Presso 0 0 56,962 67,167 87,317 96,049

Total 258,539 259,401 247,776 226,159 270,158 297,174

Compact Hatchback

WagonR 168,644 151,462 156,724 160,330 192,396 215,484

Swift 175,928 223,924 187,916 172,671 215,839 241,739

Celerio 94,721 103,734 62,625 61,010 73,212 80,533

Ignis 47,222 36,144 20,773 33,940 42,425 46,668

Baleno 190,480 212,330 180,413 163,445 196,134 215,747

Total 676,995 727,594 608,451 591,396 720,006 800,171

Mini+ Compact Hatchback total 935,534 986,995 856,227 817,555 990,164 1,097,345

Sedan Dzire 240,124 253,859 179,159 128,251 151,336 169,497

Ciaz 58,913 46,169 25,258 13,852 16,622 18,285

Total 299,037 300,028 204,417 142,103 167,959 187,781

UV Vitara Brezza 148,462 157,880 110,641 94,635 113,562 124,918

Ertiga and XL6 66,141 65,263 112,664 114,403 137,284 151,012

S-Cross 30,923 37,822 11,721 17,284 20,741 22,815

Gypsy 8,233 3,232 272 2,779 0 0

Total 253,759 264,197 235,298 229,101 271,586 298,745

Van Eeco and Omni 155,137 178,606 118,404 105,081 126,097 141,229

LCV Super Carry 10,033 23,874 21,778 29,556 39,901 49,876

Sales to Toyota 0 0 25,002 38,326 61,322 79,718

Exports 126,074 108,749 102,171 96,139 115,367 126,903

Total 1,779,574 1,862,449 1,563,297 1,457,861 1,772,395 1,981,597

Product Mix (%)

Mini+ Compact Hatchback 52.6 53.0 54.8 56.1 55.9 55.4

Sedan 16.8 16.1 13.1 9.7 9.5 9.5

UV 14.3 14.2 15.1 15.7 15.3 15.1

Vans 8.7 9.6 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.1

LCV 0.6 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.5

Sales to Toyota 0.0 0.0 1.6 2.6 3.5 4.0

Exports 7.1 5.8 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.4




Over the last few years, the company’s sales mix has become adverse as its small car segment has done better than other segments. This has impacted company’s average selling price and margins.

Exhibit 22: ASP decline in FY21 even after BS6 price increase


Exhibit 23: EBITDA per vehicle trending downwards


We expect ASP decline in FY21 due to adverse mix and then a 1.5%/1% YoY growth in FY22/FY23E. We expect margins to improve due to operating leverage to 9.3%/11%. PAT growth est. for the period is 36% CAGR.

Exhibit 24: Volume trend


Exhibit 25: Revenue trend


Exhibit 26: Margin trend


Exhibit 27: PAT trend


(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

400,000

420,000

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E

Average Selling Price (Rs) YoY (%) (RHS)

3035404550556065707580

1Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

3Q

FY1

7

1Q

FY1

8

3Q

FY1

8

1Q

FY1

9

3Q

FY1

9

1Q

FY2

0

3Q

FY2

0

1Q

FY2

1

3Q

FY2

1

Tho

usa

nd

s

EBITDA/Vehicle (Rs)

1.9

1.61.5

1.82.0

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Volumes (Mn Units) YoY (%) (RHS)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000


Revenue (Rs Bn) YoY (%) (RHS)

12.8

9.8

7.7

9.3

11.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


EBITDA Margin (%)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


PAT (Rs Bn) YoY (%) (RHS)



Maruti Suzuki’s long term average one year forward Price/earnings multiple has been ~25x/33x in last 10/5 years respectively. Its multiple has been higher in last 5 years on the back of increasing market share in the domestic PV industry. Share improved one way from 38.5% in FY12 to 51.2% in FY19. This was mainly due to successful launches and subdued competitive intensity. The scenario is changing now as competition has become intense and that too in Maruti’s weaker segment – SUVs. Industry is also shifting towards SUVs. This gets worse when Maruti is not present in the Diesel segment as all. Secondly, Maruti’s launch pipeline seems weaker than the competition.

We expect, Maruti to continue to lose share if it doesn’t address the above issues specially when there is a storm of new launches coming in the UV segment. In FY21-23E period, over a low base, we expect a strong volume growth but at the same time a loss in the market share. We acknowledge that company has a track record of launching blockbuster products and has the best network in the country, but with multiple challenges we refrain from giving a premium valuation. Hence we value the stock at its 10 year average PER multiple of 25x as compared to a higher 33x multiple in the last 5 years. We arrive at a target price of Rs 6,926 by giving a multiple of 25x (10 yr. average) to our FY23E EPS of Rs 277. It is currently trading at 24x FY23E earnings.

Exhibit 28: One year forward PER chart. 10 yr. avg is 25x and 5 yr. average is 33x

Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, Centrum Broking

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ap

r-1

1

Oct

-11

Ap

r-1

2

Oct

-12

Ap

r-1

3

Oct

-13

Ap

r-1

4

Oct

-14

Ap

r-1

5

Oct

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Oct

-16

Ap

r-1

7

Oct

-17

Ap

r-1

8

Oct

-18

Ap

r-1

9

Oct

-19

Ap

r-2

0

Oct

-20

Ap

r-2

1

x

PE Average PE 1 SD -1 SD



P&L YE Mar (Rs mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Revenues 830,265 716,904 659,908 821,857 926,603

Operating Expense 595,485 530,316 501,250 622,244 689,290

Employee cost 32,549 33,839 34,857 39,162 41,357

Others 122,176 117,675 107,570 127,930 145,736

EBITDA 109,993 74,276 53,471 80,935 108,317

Depreciation & Amortisation 30,189 35,257 34,262 41,096 45,296

EBIT 79,804 39,019 19,210 39,839 63,021

Interest expenses 758 1,329 887 968 1,048

Other income 25,610 34,208 40,077 43,461 45,288

PBT 104,656 71,898 58,399 82,332 107,260

Taxes 29,650 14,142 12,848 18,113 23,597

Effective tax rate (%) 28.3 19.7 22.0 22.0 22.0

PAT 75,006 57,756 45,551 64,219 83,663

Minority/Associates 0 0 0 0 0

Recurring PAT 75,006 57,756 45,551 64,219 83,663

Extraordinary items 0 (1,250) 0 0 0

Reported PAT 75,006 56,506 45,551 64,219 83,663

Ratios YE Mar FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Growth (%)

Revenue 6.3 (13.7) (8.0) 24.5 12.7

EBITDA (8.8) (32.5) (28.0) 51.4 33.8

Adj. EPS (2.9) (23.0) (21.1) 41.0 30.3

Margins (%)

Gross 31.9 31.5 29.7 30.2 31.9

EBITDA 12.8 9.8 7.7 9.3 11.0

EBIT 9.3 5.2 2.8 4.6 6.4

Adjusted PAT 8.7 7.6 6.5 7.4 8.5

Returns (%)

ROE 17.1 12.2 9.1 11.9 14.2

ROCE 17.1 12.4 9.2 12.0 14.3

ROIC 9.9 5.3 2.5 5.1 8.2

Turnover (days)

Gross block turnover ratio (x) 3.2 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.3

Debtors 8 11 11 9 8

Inventory 20 23 22 19 19

Creditors 97 96 90 77 80

Net working capital (7) (16) 3 26 50

Solvency (x)

Net debt-equity (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) (0.2) (0.3)

Interest coverage ratio 145.1 55.9 60.3 83.6 103.3

Net debt/EBITDA (0.5) (0.1) (0.8) (1.4) (1.8)

Per share (Rs)

Adjusted EPS 248.4 191.2 150.8 212.6 277.0

BVPS 1,527.9 1,603.9 1,704.7 1,857.4 2,054.4

CEPS 348.3 308.0 264.3 348.7 427.0

DPS 80.0 60.0 50.0 60.0 80.0

Dividend payout (%) 32.2 32.1 33.1 28.2 28.9

Valuation (x)

P/E 26.9 34.9 44.3 31.4 24.1

P/BV 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3

EV/EBITDA 17.9 27.0 36.9 23.6 16.8

Dividend yield (%) 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.2


Balance sheet YE Mar (Rs mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Equity share capital 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510

Reserves & surplus 459,905 482,860 513,311 559,410 618,913

Shareholders fund 461,415 484,370 514,821 560,920 620,423

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0

Total debt 1,496 1,613 1,613 1,613 1,613

Non Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0 0

Def tax liab. (net) 5,640 5,984 5,984 5,984 5,984

Total liabilities 629,318 625,521 650,293 718,645 796,279

Gross block 263,293 297,969 324,969 359,969 394,969

Less: acc. Depreciation (109,215) (140,157) (174,419) (215,515) (260,811)

Net block 154,078 157,812 150,550 144,454 134,158

Capital WIP 16,001 13,374 13,374 13,374 13,374

Net fixed assets 170,079 171,186 163,924 157,828 147,532

Non Current Assets 0 0 0 0 0

Investments 314,695 352,488 352,488 352,488 352,488

Inventories 33,257 32,149 29,642 35,765 37,769

Sundry debtors 23,104 21,270 19,611 21,459 21,582

Cash & Cash Equivalents 52,244 12,399 46,804 111,401 195,226

Loans & advances 162 171 171 171 171

Other current assets 35,777 35,858 37,651 39,533 41,510

Trade payables 154,128 126,242 120,399 141,905 159,213

Other current liab. 0 0 0 0 0

Provisions 6,639 7,312 7,476 8,223 9,045

Net current assets (16,223) (31,707) 6,006 58,201 128,000

Total assets 629,318 625,521 650,293 718,645 796,279

Cashflow YE Mar (Rs mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Profit Before Tax 104,656 71,898 58,399 82,332 107,260

Depreciation & Amortisation 30,189 35,257 34,262 41,096 45,296

Net Interest 758 1,329 887 968 1,048

Net Change – WC (15,725) (24,361) (3,307) 12,401 14,026

Direct taxes (29,599) (13,798) (12,848) (18,113) (23,597)

Net cash from operations 90,279 69,075 77,393 118,684 144,034

Capital expenditure (45,419) (36,364) (27,000) (35,000) (35,000)

Acquisitions, net 0 0 0 0 0

Investments (12,248) 474 (27,000) (60,000) (70,000)

Others 0 0 0 0 0

Net cash from investing (57,667) (35,890) (54,000) (95,000) (105,000)

FCF 32,612 33,185 23,393 23,684 39,034

Issue of share capital (7,004) (15,431) 0 0 0

Increase/(decrease) in debt 388 117 0 0 0

Dividend paid (758) (1,329) (887) (968) (1,048)

Interest paid (24,160) (18,120) (15,100) (18,120) (24,160)

Others 0 0 0 0 0

Net cash from financing (31,534) (34,763) (15,987) (19,088) (25,208)

Net change in Cash 1,078 (1,578) 7,405 4,597 13,825




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Buy – The stock is expected to return above 15%.

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Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

Source: Bloomberg



Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

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