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Contents

Main results . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Economic growth prospects . 2-4

Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

International Transport Danmark, ITD, distributes an Index of Economic Activity every quarter, based on quar-terly physical censuses of lorries cross-ing the country border of Southern Jutland and those using Scandlines A/S’ ferry routes on the Øresund and on the Fehmarn Belt. The Index of

Economic Activity contains surveys covering 80 per cent of the total lorry traffic into Denmark distributed on type and nationality of the vehicle.The statistics gathered supplement the international lorry traffic records by ‘Danmarks Statistik’.

Main results

Lorries across the country border, with Scandlines A/S and across the Øresund Bridge

Development of market shares in terms of nationality (number plate of the tractor unit)

The international lorry traffic across the country borders has during the past year moved away from the finan-cial bottom level. The latest four quar-ters traffic is still on a level approx. 6 per cent higher than the period from 1st quarter 2009 until 1st quar-ter 2010. There has been counted a daily traffic amounting to 4,560 lorries during the 1st quarter 2011, and this is 2.3 per cent less than 4th quarter 2010. However, this decrease indi-cates a seasonal oscillation seen the

past years. Danish lorries have again captured a distinct second place with a market share amounting to 26 per cent after the German lorries, who remain in the lead with 40 per cent of traffic on the Danish-German coun-try border, the Øresund Bridge and Scandlines’ ferry routes. The Eastern European lorries have had a remark-able decrease of 2.3 percentage point during the past year, while Danish lorries have gained market share of entire 4.5 percentage point

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Lorry traffic across the country border, on the Scandlines A/S' ferry routes and across the Øresund Bridge

In the 1st quarter 2010 4,560 lorries per day were counted on the Danish-German country border, on the Øresund Bridge and on Scandlines A/S' ferry routes in the direction of Denmark. Compared to the same quarter 2010, the traffic has increased by 7 per cent. Compared to the fourth quarter 2010, this census reveals a drop in the traffic of 2.3 per cent.

Note: From 2009.09.01 Scandlines A/S manag-es the total traffic of lorries between Helsingør and Helsingborg. The time series have been adjusted back to 2005 according to this.

Nationality across the country border and on the Scandlines A/S' ferry routes

Lorries registered in Germany represent-ed the largest nationality group with 40.4 per cent of the traffic into Denmark in the 1st quarter 2011. Lorries registered in Denmark represented 25.9 per cent, lor-ries registered in Eastern Europe amount-ed to 18.7 per cent, and lorries registered

Lorries above 20 metres across the Øresund Bridge and on the Scandlines A/S' ferry routes across the Øresund

In November 2008 Denmark initiated a trial scheme with modular road trains on selected stretches.On the Scandlines A/S ferry route bet-ween Helsingør and Helsingborg and on the Øresund Bridge there have been specific registrations of lorries above 20 metres – i.e. modular road trains and exceptional transports, with the excep-tion of vehicle transports.

in the Netherlands amounted to 7.2 per cent. The counts on the Øresund Bridge are not classified according to national-ity and are therefore not included by this recording.In proportion to the same quarter in 2010, the market share of lorries regis-

tered in Denmark increased by 4.5 per-centage point, the German market share dropped by 1.3 percentage point, the Dutch market share dropped by 0.8 per-centage point, and the Eastern European registered lorries’ market share dropped by 2.3 percentage point.

1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter

Number of 2007 4,934 5,049 4,954 5,096

lorries per day 2008 5,049 5,104 4,811 4,705

2009 4,288 4,347 4,438 4,391

2010 4,264 4,674 4,429 4,668

2011 4,560

Development in the number of lorries in the direction of Denmark across the country border, the Øresund Bridge and on the Scandlines A/S' ferry routes

Country border Remaining+ Scandi- Eastern OtherScandlines A/S Denmark Germany Netherlands navia Europe countries Total

1st quarter 2011 25.9% 40.4% 7.2% 3.3% 18.7% 4.6% 100%

Dev. 4th qurt. 10 - 1st qurt. 11stated in percentage points 1.4% 1.0% -0.1% 0.1% -0.8% -1.7%

Dev. 1st qurt. 10 - 1st qurt. 11stated in percentage points 4.5% -1.3% -0.8% 0.9% -2.3% -0.1%

Market shares in terms of nationality of the tractor unit in the 1st quarter 2011 as well as the development in proportion to the previous quarter and to the same quarter last year

Lorries in total Lorries Share of lorries above 20 metres* above 20 metres

2nd quarter 2009 928 31 3.3%

3rd quarter 2009 951 26 2.8%

4th quarter 2009 912 29 3.2%

1st quarter 2010 950 30 3.1%

2nd quarter 2010 1,003 35 3.5%

3rd quarter 2010 984 33 3.4%

4th quarter 2010 973 37 3.8%

1st quarter 2011 978 38 3.9%

Number of lorries per day in each direction with the Scandlines A/S' ferry route between Helsingør and Helsingborg and on the Øresund Bridge as well as the share of lorries above 20 metres total length

* The number of lorries above 20 metres consists of modular road trains and exceptional transports, with the exception of automobile transports

Vehicles with tarpaulin/rigid sidewalls accounted for the largest share with 53.3 per cent in the 1st quarter 2011. The second largest group was "Refrigerated vehicles" with a share of 15.3 per cent. The third largest group was "Others" with a market share of 11.5 per cent. The tank/silo transports had a market share of 8.4 per cent.

Nationality across the country border

Number of lorries across the country border

The total lorry traffic across the country border in northbound direction amount-ed to 2,870 lorries every day during the 1st quarter 2011. Of these 629 were reg-istered in Denmark, 1,465 in Germany and 581 in Eastern Europe. From the 4th quarter 2010 to the 1st quarter 2011

the lorry traffic dropped by 3.6 per cent. Within the last year, i.e. from the 1st quarter 2010 to the 1st quarter 2011 the traffic across the country border increased by 8.3 per cent. This cor-responds to an increase of 220 lorries per day in northbound direction. In this

Since the counts from the 1st quarter 2005 lorries registered in Germany rep-resented the largest group, and in the 1st quarter 2011 the share was 51 per cent of the total traffic. The Danish reg-istered lorries represented the second largest group with 21.9 per cent. The Eastern Europe market share repre-

sented 20.2 per cent. The Dutch market share represented 4.7 per cent. The category Remaining Scandinavia repre-sentet a relatively modest group with a marked share of 0.4 per cent of the total lorry traffic across the country border. Within the last year, i.e. from the 1st quarter 2010 to the 1st quarter 2011:

• the share of German registered lorries decreased by 0.8 percentage point• the share of the East European decreased by 0.8 percentage point• the share of Danish registered lorries increased by 1.2 percentage point• the share of Dutch registered lorries increased by 0.2 percentage point.

Remaining Scandi- Eastern OtherThe country border Denmark Germany Netherlands navia Europe countries Total

1st quarter 2011 21.9% 51.0% 4.7% 0.4% 20.2% 1.8% 100%

Dev. 4th qurt. 10 - 1st qurt. 11stated in percentage points 2.5% -4.1% -2.8% 0.0% 2.7% 1.5%

Dev. 1st qurt. 10 - 1st qurt. 11stated in percentage points 1.2% -0.8% 0.2% 0.1% -0.8% 0.2%

Market shares in terms of nationality of the tractor unit in the 1st quarter 2011 as well as the development in proportion to the previous quarter and to the same quarter last year

Development Development 1st quarter 4th qurt. 10 - 1st qurt. 10 - Country border 2011 1st qurt. 11 1st qurt. 11

Tarpaulin/rigid sidewalls 53.3% -1.6% 0.9%

Refrigerated vehicles 15.3% 2.9% -1.0%

Container vehicles 7.1% 2.8% 2.9%

Tank/silo 8.4% -0.6% 0.1%

Special vehicles 0.6% -0.4% 0.1%

Solo tractors 2.7% -0.1% 0.2%

2-axled with rigid platform 1.1% 1.4% 1.8%

Others 11.5% -1.6% -1.4%

Total 100%

Market shares in terms of type of vehicle in the 1st quarter 2011 and the develop-ment in proportion to the previous quarter and to the same quarter last year

Type of vehicle across the country border

period the number of Danish registered lorries increased by 104 lorries per day. The number of German registered lorries increased by 177 lorries per day, and the number of lorries registered in Eastern Europe increased by 27 per day.

Development in the number of lorries across the country border in northbound direction per day 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter

Number of lorries per day 2007 3,204 3,291 3,230 3,283

2008 3,311 3,257 3,117 3,052

2009 2,776 2,753 2,883 2,877

2010 2,650 2,956 2,776 2,978

2011 2,870

The total lorry traffic in and out of Denmark

4th quarter 2010 Country Gedser- Kattegat/ border(1) Øresund Rostock Skagerrak Others Total Rødby- Puttgarden

Into 2,978 995 611 458 53 5,095

Out of 3.010 984 611 436 54 5,095

Total 5,988 1,979 1,222 894 107 10,190

week chosen and the selected traffic flows. The nationality of a lorry is determined on basis of the nationality of the tractor unit’s number plate.The nationality categories comprise three unambiguous categories: Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, and, furthermore, three grouped catego-ries: Remaining Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and Other countries. The cate-gory "Remaining Scandinavia" comprises Finland, Norway and Sweden. Eastern Europe includes all the previous Eastern bloc states up to the Ural Mountains. Other countries comprise all other nationalities. Counts were carried out in the following weeks:• 1st quarter 2007 ...............week 10• 2nd quarter 2007 ................week 20• 3rd quarter 2007 ...............week 38• 4th quarter 2007 ................week 46• 1st quarter 2008 ................week 10• 2nd quarter 2008 ...............week 22

• 3rd quarter 2008 ...............week 38• 4th quarter 2008 ................week 46• 1st quarter 2009 ................week 10• 2nd quarter 2009 ...............week 20• 3rd quarter 2009 ...............week 38• 4th quarter 2009 ................week 46• 1st quarter 2010 ................week 10• 2nd quarter 2010 ...............week 18• 3rd quarter 2010 ................week 38• 4th quarter 2010 ................week 46• 1st quarter 2011 .................week 10

The total traffic across the country bor-der includes the entry points of Padborg, Frøslev, Rudbøl and Sæd. From previous censuses the share of lorry traffic across the country border via Rudbøl and Sæd amounted to 4.5 per cent. This share has been used as the basis for enumerating a total figure for Frøslev and Padborg.

Total amount of lorries per day into and out of Denmark in the 4th quarter 2009 and the 4th quarter

2010 distributed on the country border, the Øresund, the Fehmarn Belt and Kattegat/Skagerrak

ITD’s Index of Economic Activity is worked out every quarter in the context of a uni-form census method carried out manually at the Frøslev and Padborg entry points as well as on the Scandlines A/S ferry routes across the Øresund and the Fehmarn Belt.The censuses cover 4 weeks per year – one counting per quarter. The weeks are chosen outside holidays and public holi-days in the most important markets. For the 1st quarter 2011 the period chosen is week 10, i.e. from 7 March to 13 March 2011. The census is picked as random samples, where for each ferry route/entry point for each weekly counting 24 hours are taken out distributed over the week chosen. Censuses at the country border are only carried out on northbound trans-ports, whilst counts on ferry routes are made in both directions. Random samples are chosen so that the census can give a 95 per cent safe and true picture of lorry transports for the

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Censuses from the country border have been supplemented by censuses of the traffic across the Øresund Bridge made by Øresundsbro Konsortiet and sur-veys prepared by Danmarks Statistik of passages on the ferry routes. The recent surveys by Danmarks Statistik are from the 4th quarter 2010. The total lorry traffic to and from Denmark amounted to 10,190 lorries per day in the 4th quarter 2010. In proportion to the same quarter in 2009 the lorry traffic to and from Denmark increased by 6.4 per cent. During this period the lorry traffic across the Øresund (bridge and ferry) increased by 10.5 per cent. The traffic across the Fehmarn Belt increased by 11.9 per cent. The ferry traffic between Jutland and Sweden/Norway increased by 3.4 per cent from the 4th quarter 2009 to the 4th quarter 2010. The traffic across the country border increased by 4.6 per cent.

Method

(1) Lorry transports across the country border in southbound direction have been calculated on the premise that the amount of the total lorry traffic in and out of the country is equally much.

4th quarter 2009 Country Gedser- Kattegat/ border(1) Øresund Rostock Skagerrak Others Total Rødby- Puttgarden

Into 2,877 878 546 440 47 4,788

Out of 2,848 913 546 425 56 4,788

Total 5,725 1,791 1,092 865 103 9,576

Devel. 4th qurt. 2009 Country Gedser- Kattegat/ - 4th qurt. 2010 border(1) Øresund Rostock Skagerrak Others Total Rødby- Puttgarden

Into 3.5% 13.3% 11.9% 4.1% 12.8% 6.4%

Out of 5.7% 7.8% 11.9% 2.6% -3.6% 6.4%

Total 4.6% 10.5% 11.9% 3.4% 3.9% 6.4%

PUBLICATION

International Transport DanmarkLyren 1 . DK-6330 Padborg

Tel. +45 7467 1233 . Fax +45 7467 4317E-mail: itd@itd.dk

www.itd.dk

Composition: Force Technology

Layout: ITD, International Transport Danmark

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