index-based insurance for aat control
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Designing an index-based insurance to control African Animal
Trypanosomosis in sub-humid zone of West Africa
PhD candidate, Ahmadou H. Dicko (UCAD, WASCAL)
PhD, Jérémy Bouyer (CIRAD)
PhD, Marc Müller (FAO)
PhD, William M. Fonta (WASCAL)
![Page 2: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Background
• The demand for livestock products will double in the 2050horizon (Herrero et al. 2009)
• Most of the livestock products are made by smallholdersin developing countries
• These households are vulnerable to socio-economic andclimatic shocks
• They face many challenges on their daily activities:• Tsetse transmitted trypanosomosis is one of the most
important
(Thornton et al. 2007)
![Page 3: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Tsetse fly and Africa development
![Page 4: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
African Animal Trypanosomosis burden
• African animal Trypanosomiasis (AAT) is a fatalvector-borne disease that causes serious economic lossesin livestock.
• Most endemic countries are among the poorest in thecontinent
• Yearly cost of African trypanosomosis is more than 1bnUS$
(Alsan et al. 2013)
![Page 5: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Index-insurance as a solution ?
![Page 6: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Index-based insurance in a nutshell
• Based on a index (e.g NDVI) correlated to the losses• Payout are made on a agreed-upon threshold of the index• Advantages : Low transaction cost and no moral hazardand adverse selection
• Disadvantages : Imperfect correlation between chosenindex and losses ( Basis risk )
• Basis risk have to be as low as possible in an optimalinsurance design
![Page 7: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Index-Based Livestock Index Insurance
.....
Index-based livestock index insurance (IBLI)
.
Impact
. Monitor
![Page 8: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Index-based animal disease insurance
.....
Index-based animal disease insurance (IBADI)
.
Impact
. Monitor
![Page 9: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The key question is how to monitor thelevel of trypanosomosis ?
![Page 10: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Input: Entomological data
10°N
11°N
12°N
13°N
14°N
5°W 4°W 3°W 2°W 1°W
+++++++++ +++ +++++++ ++ ++ + ++ + ++ + +++ ++ ++++ + ++ + + ++ + ++ ++ +++++ ++++++ ++ ++++++ ++++++ ++ ++ ++++ ++ ++++ ++ + + +++++ + + ++ + ++++ +++++++++++++++ ++ ++++ +++++++++ ++++++ +++ +++++++ + ++ ++ +++ + ++++++++ ++++ ++ ++ +++++ + +++ ++++ + + ++ + +++ +++ +++ + + ++ ++++ +++ +++ ++ + ++++ +++ ++ + ++++ + ++ +++++ ++ + ++++ + +++ ++++ ++ + +++ ++ ++ + +++ + + +++ +++ + ++ +++ + +++++
+++++
+ +
++++
++++++++
++++++ +++ ++++++++++++++++++++ +
++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++
+ +++++
+
++
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
++
+
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
++
+
++
+
+
+++
+
++
+
+
+
+
++
+
+++
++
+
++++
+
++++
++++
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
++++
+
+
++
+
+
++++
+++
+
+
+++
++
+++
++
+
+
+
+
+
+++++
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
++
++
+
++++
+
++
+
+
+
+
++
++++
+++
+
+
+++
++++
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
++
+
++
+
+
++
+
++
++
++++
++
++
+
+++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++++
+
+
++
+++++
+
++
+
++
+
+
+
++++++
++
+
++
+
+++
+
+
+
++
+
++
+
++++++++
+
+
+++
+
++
++
+
+
+
++
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
++
+
+
++++++
+
+
+
+
+++
+
++
++++
+++++
+
+
+
++++++
++
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
++++++++++
++++
+
++
+
++
+++
+
+
++
++++
+++++++
++
+
++
+
++
++++
+
+
+++++++
+++
+++
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+++
+
+++
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
++
+
+++
++
+
++++
+++
++
+
++++++
+
++
++
+
++
++
+
++++
+
+
++
++
++
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
++++
+
++
+++
++
++
+
+
+
+++
+
+++++++
++
+
+++
++
+++
++
++
+
+++++++
++
+++
+
+++
++
+++++
++
+++++++
+
+
++
+
+++
+
+
+++
+
+
++
+
+
+++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+++
++
++
++
+
+++
+
++
++
+
+
++
+
+
++
+
+
+++
+
+
+
++++
+
+
+
++++
+
+
++++++
+
++
++
+
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
++
++++++++++
+
++
++
+
+
++++++
+
++
+++
+
++++++
+
+++
+
+
++++
+++++
++
+
+++++++++
+
+
+
++++
+
+
+
+++++++++++
++
+
+
+++
+
++
++
+
+
+++
++
++
+
++
++
+
+++
+
++
++
++
+
+
+++++++
+
+++++++
+
+++
++
+
+++++
++
+++++
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
++
++
+
++++++
+
+
+
++
+++
++
++
++
+
+
+
+++
+
++
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+++++
++
+
+
+
+
++
++
+++
++
+
+++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+++
+
++
+
++++
+
++
++
+
+++
+
+
+
++++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+++++
++
+
++
+++
+++++
+
+++
++
++++
++++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++++
+
++++
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
++
+
++
+
++
+
+
++
+++
++++
+
+++
++
++++
+++
+++
+++
+
++
+++
+
+
+++++++
++
+
+
++
++
+
+
++++
+
++
+
+
+
++
++
+
+++
+
++
+++
++
+
+++
+
++
+++
+++
+
++
+++++++
+++
+
+
+
+
+++++
+
+
+
+
++
++
+
++
+
+
+
+++
+
+
+
+
+
+
++++
+++++
+
++
++
+
++
++
+++
+
++++
+++
+
++
+++
+
+
+
+
++++++
++
++++++
+
+
+++++
++++++++
++++++
+
++
++
+++++++
+
++++
++++
+++
+
++
+
+
+++
++
+
+++++
+
++
++
++
+
++++
+
++++
+
++++++
++++++++
+
++++
+
+++++++++
+++
++
++
+
+
+
++++
+
+
+
+
+
++++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+++
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+++
++
++++
++
+
+
++
+++++
+
+
+
+++
+
++
+
++
++
+
+
+++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+++
++
+++++++++++
++
+
++
+
+
++
++
+
++
+
+++
+++
++++
+
+
+
+++
+
++
+
+
++
+
++
+
++++
+
+
+++
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
++
+++
++
++++++
++++++
+
++
+
++
+++
++++
+
+++++
++++
++++
++
+++
+
++++
+
+++++
++
+
++
++++
++
+++
+
+
+++++++++
++
++
++++
+
+++++++
++++++
++
+
+++++
++++
++
++++
++
+
+++
+++++
![Page 11: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Input: Bovine trypanosomosis data
• Data from 3 surveys(two from PATTEC)
• Data on:• Serological status• Parasitological
status• Level of anemia• Control variables
(age, cattle breed)10°N
11°N
12°N
13°N
14°N
15°N
5°W 4°W 3°W 2°W 1°W
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●●
●● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●●
●● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●● ●
Sero. prevalence (%)●
●●●
[0,20](20,40](40,60](60,80](80,100]
![Page 12: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Covariates: remote sensing data
• 10 years of monthlytime series of remotesensing data
• MODIS product(LST, NDVI, MIR)
• Rainfall estimatefrom FAO (RFE2)
RFE
0 20 40 60 80 100
NDVI
−0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
MIR
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
DLST
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
NLST
18 20 22 24 26 28 30
DEM
100200300400500600700800
![Page 13: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Material and methods
..Trypanosomosis risk ∼ EIR.
Tsetse apparent density
.
Tsetse habitat suitability
.
Tsetse infection rates
.
Regularized logistic regression
.
Count regression
.
Logistic regression
.
Climate ∼ Remote sensing data
![Page 14: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Material and methods
The chosen index is known by entomological inoculation rate(EIR) or tsetse challenge. It is the mathematical product of:
• Tsetse apparent density• Number of tsetse flies caught per day per trap
• Tsetse infection rates• Trypanosome infection rates on tsetse
This modeling framework extends the tsetse habitat suitabilityindex developed in previous studies (Dicko et al. 2014).
![Page 15: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Predicted risk index (tsetse challenge)
dry2005 rainy2005
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Figure: Prediction tsetse challenge for dry and rainysaison 2010
![Page 16: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Index validation against bovinetrypanosomosis data
The relation between EIR and following metrics will beinvestigated:
• Serological test results (antibodies for trypanosome)• Level of parasitaemia (buffy coat techniques)• Illness status (seropositive and anemic)
![Page 17: Index-based insurance for AAT control](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042619/58f1656f1a28ab9c648b45f3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Index validation against bovinetrypanosomosis data
●● ●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●● ● ●
●
●
●
●● ●●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
ill parasito sero
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.2 0.4 0.6predicted
obse
rved
Figure: Prediction on testing data (not used to train the models)