Increasing Graduation Rates Helping Students Take the Final Leap

Introduction College attrition comes at a high cost to students, institutions, and state and federal governments.

For students, not completing their degree can result in a significant loss of personal income due to

lower lifetime wages in addition to the

foregone earnings while in school.i For students

who take out loans to finance their education,

the personal costs extend to loan and interest

repayment and those who do not complete

their degree are more likely to become

delinquent and default on their loans,

impacting their credit ratings and interest rates

for years.ii In addition, institutions and the state

have invested money and resources into these

students for several years; if students do not

graduate, the institution’s graduation rate

suffers as does the state’s ability to attract

businesses with a well-educated workforce.

Compounding that, lower earnings across the

population can translate into a loss in potential

tax revenue for the broader economy.iii

National research suggests that one third of

college dropouts are in good academic

standing with more than two years of

postsecondary education experience;

developing strategies to aid these individuals

to return and complete their degrees may be

the most economical way to increase

graduation rates.iv With this in mind, this paper

seeks to better understand a cohort of students

at The University of Texas (UT) System academic

institutions who have made significant progress

towards receiving a baccalaureate degree

(attempted 90 or more semester credit hours

(SCH) within the UT System), yet have failed to complete their degree within six years.

To this end, this paper will cover three main points:

The UT System six-year graduation rate for the 2008 cohort would be three percentage points

higher if those with 90 or more attempted SCH and a final semester GPA of 2.5 had

Key Findings:

Overall, students who did not complete their

degree but had attempted 90 or more SCH

were more likely to be male, Hispanic, student

loan borrowers, and Pell Grant recipients

compared to those who completed their

degree. The students who completed their

degree had a higher final semester GPA than

those who did not.

For those with 90 or more attempted SCH and a

final semester GPA of 2.5 or higher, results for at

least 4 institutions indicate:

o The higher percentage of semesters in

which they enrolled full-time, the more likely

they were to complete

o The higher the number of major changes,

the less likely they were to complete

o Those who had received a Pell Grant were

less likely to complete

Results point toward the potential impact of

finances and major advising as critical to the

likelihood of these students completing their

degree, and thus increasing UT System

graduation rates by as much as 10 percentage

points, in the case of the 2008 cohort.

2 The University of Texas System

April 2017

completed, and it would be 10 percentage points higher if the more than 1,700 students with

90 or more attempted SCH had earned their degree

The characteristics of the students who have attempted 90 or more SCH but did not graduate

in six years, compared to those who did earn their degree

The factors that are associated with graduating vs. not graduating for students who

attempted at least 90 SCH

The Final Leap Among The University of Texas System academic institutions, the percentage of students who

entered as first-time, full-time undergraduates in Fall 2008 and who graduated from their starting

institution within six years ranged from 31 percent to 80 percent.v However, for some UT System

schools, this rate significantly underrepresents the number of successful students since, among other

things, the rate does not account for those who transfer to a different institution and graduate. When

graduating from a different Texas institution is considered a success, graduation rates increase by 4

to more than 20 percentage points. For example, there is a 22 percentage point difference between

San Antonio’s “same” (students who started their college education at UTSA and graduated from

UTSA) and “same or other Texas institution” (students who started their college education at UTSA

and graduated from any public institution in Texas) six-year graduation rates for the Fall 2008 cohort.

However, even broadening the definition of success to include graduation from any university, there

are still many students who do not graduate.

Although persistence rates suggest many students drop out of college during their first or second

year, analysis of enrollment data indicates that two thirds of the cohort attempted at least 90

semester credit hours (SCH) in residence at one or more UT System campuses. For example, more

than 1,700 students from the 2008 cohort who attempted 90 or more credit hours failed to receive a

degree from a UT System or other Texas institution within six years. In addition, very few students who

leave a UT System institution with 90 or more attempted credit hours and no degree go on to

graduate from an institution outside of the UT System. Of those 1,700 students with at least 90 credit

hours attempted, nearly 600 had a GPA of 2.5 or higher in their final semester of enrollment,

suggesting for those students that academic performance is not the primary factor that led to their

failure to complete a degree. These students could take that final leap to completing their degree.

If the factors affecting students’ ability to successfully earn a diploma had been identified and

interventions used to ameliorate those effects, there may have been nearly 600 additional students

graduating. For some institutions, in addition to the benefits to the student of completing their

degree, this would result in a significant increase in the six-year graduation rate. For example, if the

126 UT El Paso students who attempted 90 or more credit hours and who also had a final semester

GPA of 2.5 stayed at the institution and successfully completed, UTEP’s “same” six-year graduation

rate for the Fall 2008 cohort would have been 44 percent, rather than 38 percent.

3 The University of Texas System

April 2017

Table 1. Six-Year Graduation Rates, Overall and for Students with 90 or More Attempted SCH First-Time, Full-Time Undergraduate Degree-Seeking Cohort, Fall 2008

Students Who Attempted 90+ SCH at a UT System Academic Institution

Starting Institution

Cohort Sizevi

6-Yr Grad Rate – Same

Institutionvii

6-Yr Grad Rate –

Same or Other TX

Institutionviii

% of Graduation

Rate Cohort Attempting

90+ SCHix

6-Year Graduation

Rate– Same or Any UT Campusx

6-Yr Grad Rate – Same or Any

National Student Clearinghouse

Institution

# who did not

graduate

# with a final GPA >2.5

and did not graduate

UTA 2,254 42% 53% 57% 79% 80% 250 80

Austin 6,663 80% 84% 85% 91% 92% 474 146

UTD 1,090 71% 76% 75% 91% 91% 70 20

UTEP 2,060 38% 42% 52% 66% 67% 354 126

UTPB 332 34% 45% 43% 82% 84% 23 8

UTSA 4,762 31% 53% 54% 80% 80% 511 199

UTT 584 45% 58% 54% 87% 87% 42 13

Total 17,745 53% 63% 66% 83% 85% 1,724 592

Student Characteristics: Graduating vs. Not Graduating This section explores various

characteristics—including demographics,

academic performance, and financial aid

status—of students who have attempted at

least 90 credit hours. The section compares

these characteristics for students who

earned their degree in six years from any

institution to those who did not finish.

Demographics

Across all institutions, among those who

made a final semester GPA of at least 2.5,

94 percent received a bachelor’s degree

from some school. However, almost 600 of

these students who made satisfactory

progress did not go on to earn a degree.

Across all institutions, compared to

those who earned a degree, those

who did not receive a degree and

had a final semester GPA of 2.5 or

higher were:

o more likely to be male (44% vs 52%);

o more likely to be Hispanic (26% vs 45%); and

o less likely to be White (48% vs 33%).

Key Definitions:

Except where explicitly stated, the data in this paper is

based on the Fall 2008 cohort of first-time, full-time

undergraduates at UT System academic intuitions.

Due to data limitations, the semester credit hours (SCH)

include only those attempted in residence at a UT System

academic institution. The SCH totals do not include

transfer credits taken at a community college or other

university or that were earned through dual credit, AP, IB,

and CLEP. Thus, these SCH totals are likely

underestimated.

The Pan American and Brownsville cohorts are not

included in this study as these institutions closed at the

end of AY 2015. UT Rio Grande Valley began enrolling

students in Fall 2015.

Final semester GPA is used in the analysis as a proxy for a

student being in good academic standing. Due to data

limitations, GPA data is only available from Summer 2011

on, therefore it is not possible to calculate a cumulative

GPA for this cohort.

4 The University of Texas System

April 2017

Table 2. Gender and Race/Ethnicity* First-Time, Full-Time Undergraduate Degree-Seeking Students with 90 or More Attempted Hours, Fall 2008 Cohort

Starting Institution

Received Bachelor’s

Degree from Any School Count % Male % Female

% African American

% Asian American % Hispanic

% Native American % White

UTA No 250 62% 38% 15% 18% 23% 1% 38%

Yes 1,024 45% 55% 14% 22% 21% 0% 40%

Austin No 474 55% 45% 8% 20% 26% 0% 42%

Yes 5,181 43% 57% 5% 20% 19% 0% 55%

UTD No 70 76% 24% 10% 23% 16% 0% 47%

Yes 752 57% 43% 4% 35% 9% 0% 49%

UTEP No 354 52% 48% 3% 1% 76% 0% 4%

Yes 718 42% 58% 2% 2% 87% 0% 6%

UTPB No 23 57% 43% 0% 0% 70% 0% 30%

Yes 120 41% 59% 3% 1% 42% 0% 52%

UTSA No 511 59% 41% 13% 10% 40% 1% 33%

Yes 2,051 45% 55% 10% 13% 34% 0% 42%

UTT No 42 71% 29% 7% 2% 7% 0% 83%

Yes 275 37% 63% 8% 5% 8% 0% 79%

FTFTDS Students with 90+ SCH and Final Semester GPA of 2.5+

All No 592 52% 48% 8% 12% 45% 1% 33%

Yes 8,815 44% 56% 6% 18% 26% 0% 48%

*Students whose race/ethnicity was classified as “International” or “Unknown” were not included in this analysis. Therefore, the race/ethnicity categories do not total 100%

Academic Performance

Across all institutions, the GPA for the last semester enrolled is notably higher for completers

than for non-completers, suggesting that academic standing may be an important factor

that distinguishes students who attempt 90 hours and subsequently graduate within six years

from those who do not. This factor may be particularly important for students in programs

where a minimum cumulative GPA is required to take courses within the major or to continue

in the program.

For two of the three institutions with a relatively large number of students participating in the

Coordinated Admissions Program (CAP)xi, Arlington and San Antonio, the students are more

likely to receive their baccalaureate degrees than to not receive them. At Tyler, CAP students

make up a larger proportion of non-completers than they do completers.

Across all institutions, compared to those who earned a degree, those who did not receive a

degree and had a final semester GPA of 2.5 or higher:

o were less likely to have been in the top 25% of their high school class (64% vs 42%),

o had lower median SAT scores (1190 vs 1040), and

o had lower median GPA in last term (3.5 vs 3.0).

5 The University of Texas System

April 2017

Table 3. Admissions Status, SAT Score, and Semester GPA for Last Regular Term First-Time, Full-Time Undergraduate Degree-Seeking Students with 90 or More Attempted Hours, Fall 2008 Cohort

Starting Institution

Received Bachelor’s

Degree from Any School Count

% Admitted

Top 10

% Admitted

11-25th

% Admitted

Other % CAP

Student SAT

Average SAT

Median

GPA Last Regular

Term Average

GPA Last Regular

Term Median

UTA No 250 10% 33% 58% 13% 1064 1065 1.86 2.00

Yes 1,024 25% 29% 47% 18% 1088 1080 3.21 3.36

Austin No 474 62% 16% 21% 0% 1212 1220 1.99 2.14

Yes 5,181 71% 15% 14% 0% 1247 1260 3.39 3.50

UTD No 70 23% 0% 77% 0% 1223 1210 1.70 1.67

Yes 752 32% 1% 67% 0% 1271 1280 3.42 3.60

UTEP No 354 9% 16% 75% 1% 904 890 2.05 2.25

Yes 718 25% 26% 48% 3% 956 950 3.37 3.50

UTPB No 23 26% 35% 39% 0% 1016 990 1.87 1.61

Yes 120 34% 19% 47% 3% 1033 1030 3.39 3.50

UTSA No 511 6% 17% 77% 27% 1026 1020 2.01 2.21

Yes 2,051 10% 15% 75% 54% 1061 1060 3.20 3.32

UTT No 42 12% 17% 71% 20% 810 890 1.81 1.97

Yes 275 22% 13% 65% 10% 918 990 3.30 3.33

FTFTDS Students with 90+ SCH and Final Semester GPA of 2.5+

All No 592 23% 19% 58% 10% 1050 1040 3.19 3.03

Yes 8,815 48% 16% 36% 9% 1170 1190 3.48 3.53

Financial Aid Status

In general, non-completers with at least 90 attempted hours are more likely to have taken out a least

one federal student loan than are completers. At the majority of campuses, students who do not

complete their degrees are more likely to have received a Pell Grant than those who do not. This,

along with the loan data, suggests that failure to complete a degree, even after attempting 90 or

more hours, is associated with financial need. (Table 4)

At all institutions (except Austin), completers are more likely to have received merit aid than are non-

completers. In conjunction with the patterns found for high school percentile, SAT scores, and most

recent GPA, the evidence suggests completers are more academically prepared than non-

completers, or are more frequently financially awarded for their academic achievements.

Across all institutions, compared to those who earned a degree, those who did not receive a

degree and had a final semester GPA of 2.5 or higher were:

o More likely to have taken out a federal loan (53% vs 68%);

o More likely to have received a Pell grant (37% vs 56%), a Texas Grant (22% vs 33%), or

any aid (70% vs 81%), but less likely to have received merit aid (25% vs 18%); and

o More likely to have worked at any point while enrolled (72% vs 77%), though this

pattern varies by campus.

6 The University of Texas System

April 2017

The average loan debt for non-completers is similar to that of completers, a particularly concerning

issue given the increased risk for delinquency and default for individuals who withdraw from school

without completing their programs of study.xii In most cases, the difference in debt for completers

and non-completers is around $2,000 or less. At Austin, non-completers owe, on average, $4,700

more in student loans than do completers, and at Dallas, non-completers owe, on average, $5,700

more. (Table 5) When looking at TEXAS Grant, as well as merit grant aid, non-completers received

lower total amounts over their enrollment than did completers. It is not known whether this is related

to the fact that non-completers are likely enrolled for less semesters than completers and therefore

don’t accumulate as much grant aid, or if this is due to the fact that there are differences in the

financial aid received by those who completed vs. those who did not.

Across all institutions, compared to those who earned a degree, those who did not receive a degree

and had a final semester GPA of 2.5 or higher had:

o Similar median loan, Pell grant, and total grant and scholarship aid amounts;

o Lower median Texas Grant, merit aid, and total aid amounts; and

o More than double the median wages earned while enrolled. (Note that

unemployment insurance (UI) wage records, the source of the earnings data in this

analysis, do not include wages from work-study positions. Thus, both the completer

and non-completer wages may somewhat underrepresent the actual median

earnings for some students).

Table 4. Financial Aid and Work Status First-Time, Full-Time Undergraduate Degree-Seeking Students with 90 or More Attempted Hours, Fall 2008 Cohort

Starting Institution

Received Bachelor’s

Degree from Any School Count

% Took Out a

Federal Loan

% Received a Pell Grant

% Received a TEXAS

Grant

% Received Any G/S/T*

Aid

% Received Merit Aid

% Received

Any Aid

% Worked Any While

in School

UTA No 250 69% 56% 25% 74% 27% 83% 78%

Yes 1,024 59% 50% 25% 80% 52% 86% 75%

Austin No 474 55% 42% 29% 55% 17% 63% 59%

Yes 5,181 49% 30% 19% 52% 13% 60% 71%

UTD No 70 60% 27% 19% 77% 49% 84% 64%

Yes 752 61% 27% 13% 84% 67% 91% 74%

UTEP No 354 64% 68% 43% 81% 26% 84% 73%

Yes 718 61% 71% 43% 87% 43% 91% 80%

UTPB No 23 65% 57% 35% 87% 70% 96% 91%

Yes 120 50% 41% 18% 98% 90% 98% 89%

UTSA No 511 67% 50% 31% 63% 6% 74% 75%

Yes 2,051 59% 40% 23% 60% 12% 73% 68%

UTT No 42 62% 45% 29% 67% 24% 79% 86%

Yes 275 52% 36% 21% 75% 47% 84% 81%

FTFTDS Students with 90+ SCH and Final Semester GPA of 2.5+

All No 592 68% 56% 33% 70% 18% 81% 77%

Yes 8,815 53% 37% 22% 62% 25% 70% 72%

*G/S/T Aid refers to grants, scholarships, tuition waivers, and other forms of aid that can be applied directly toward tuition.

7 The University of Texas System

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Table 5. Median Amount of Financial Aid Received and Wages Earned While Enrolled First-Time, Full-Time Undergraduate Degree-Seeking Students with 90 or More Attempted Hours, Fall 2008 Cohort

Starting Institution

Received Bachelor’s

Degree from Any School Count

Median Total

Loans Median

Total Pell

Median Total Texas

Grant

Median Total

G/S/T** Aid Median

Merit Aid Median

All Aid

Median Wages

While in School

UTA No 250 $21,519 $15,337 $11,360 $23,281 $2,750 $37,508 $10,000

Yes 1,024 $22,042 $15,281 $25,240 $23,400 $4,700 $42,683 $7,913

Austin No 474 $33,193 $15,281 $11,360 $35,948 $5,000 $67,413 $4,405

Yes 5,181 $28,500 $15,331 $23,140 $29,393 $6,708 $63,288 $3,186

UTD No 70 $22,048 $15,381 $11,360 $20,599 $11,248 $32,063 $11,756

Yes 752 $16,368 $14,303 $22,510 $37,790 $32,245 $48,017 $6,699

UTEP No 354 $15,530 $19,551 $11,360 $26,839 $2,073 $40,915 $10,428

Yes 718 $13,406 $21,850 $22,689 $38,546 $3,574 $48,492 $8,289

UTPB No 23 $11,000 $16,650 $7,249 $20,600 $3,278 $30,460 $14,711

Yes 120 $13,010 $8,150 $6,097 $16,802 $4,500 $26,756 $8,007

UTSA No 511 $27,916 $16,909 $11,360 $21,025 $1,000 $47,221 $10,687

Yes 2,051 $26,038 $16,450 $19,890 $14,076 $2,000 $46,059 $5,667

UTT No 42 $20,821 $17,453 $13,055 $19,103 $6,910 $38,887 $7,423

Yes 275 $23,180 $11,100 $21,542 $13,278 $9,000 $33,595 $6,523

FTFTDS Students with 90+ SCH and Final Semester GPA of 2.5+

All No 592 $22,757 $15,932 $11,360 $24,460 $2,500 $43,134 $9,474

Yes 8,815 $23,717 $16,310 $22,989 $26,742 $6,000 $51,271 $4,572

*G/S/T Aid refers to grants, scholarships, tuition waivers, and other forms of aid that can be applied directly toward tuition.

The Critical Factors: Logistic Regression Models A comparison of those students who earned a degree vs. those who did not, but had 90 or more

credit hours attempted and earned a final semester GPA of 2.5 or higher, reveal patterns very similar

to those presented in the previous section (see Appendix for more detail). Nevertheless, the data

suggest that, among students who attempted 90 or more semester credit hours, one of the biggest

differences between those completing their degree within six years and those who did not is the fact

the average GPA during the last enrolled term for completers was more than 3.2 but less than 2.2 for

non-completers. To test the significance of this and other characteristics in predicting graduation

status, a series of logistic regression models were developed for each institution (with the exception

of Permian Basin and Tyler) which were combined to increase the sample size. The variables of

interest and their sources can be found in Appendix A.

8 The University of Texas System

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Logistic Regression Model 1 Results: All Students with 90+ SCH

Table 6. Significant Student Characteristics: Logistic Regression Results First-Time, Full-Time Undergraduate Degree-Seeking Students with 90 or More Attempted Hours, Fall 2008 Cohort

Factor UTA Austin UTD UTEP UTPB & UTT UTSA

GPA (Last Regular Term)

% Semesters Enrolled Full-Time

Received a Pell Grant

Race/Ethnicity

Number of Major Changes

Gender

Cumulative G/S/T Aid*

Cumulative Merit Aid

SCH Attempted Year 1

Admissions Acceptance

SAT

Cumulative Wages

CAP Student N/A N/A

= significance at p<.05

Overall Results. When a characteristic was found to be an important predictor of graduation, the

direction of that association was, with the exception of grant/scholarship/tuition waiver aid, the

same across all universities for which the factor was statistically significant.

Other Findings:

The higher the number of times a major was changed, the more unlikely the student was to

graduate within six years (Austin, Permian Basin/Tyler, and San Antonio).

Males were less likely to graduate within this timeframe than were females (Arlington, Permian

Basin/Tyler, and San Antonio).

Findings for Four or More Institutions:

Students who completed their programs within six years had a higher GPA overall

during their last semester than those who did not (all UT System institutions in the

study).

Students who had a higher percentage of semesters in which they enrolled full-time

were more likely to be a completer than those who enrolled part-time during some

semesters (Arlington, Austin, Dallas, El Paso, and San Antonio).

Students who had ever received a Pell Grant were less likely to graduate than those

students who had not (Arlington, Austin, El Paso, and San Antonio).

9 The University of Texas System

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At El Paso, students who received more cumulative dollars in grant, scholarship, and tuition

waiver aid were more likely to graduate than students with lower levels of this aid. At Permian

Basin/Tyler and San Antonio, non-graduates had higher levels of cumulative grant,

scholarship, and tuition waiver aid than did graduates.

Individuals who received higher amounts of merit aid (exclusive of TEXAS Grants) had an

increased likelihood of graduating than those with lower amounts (Arlington and San

Antonio).

There is a consistent positive association between the number of hours completed during the

first year and successful completion (Arlington and San Antonio).

Logistic Regression Model 2 Results:

All Students with 90+ SCH and a Final Semester GPA of 2.5+

Because final semester GPA was an important characteristic associated with graduating within six

years at all of the UT System academic institutions, a second set of logistic regression models was

developed, focusing on the population of students who

had a final term GPA of 2.5 or higher. Of interest was,

among students who demonstrated an ability to be

academically successful on an above-average level,

what factors distinguish those who complete their

degrees in a timely manner from those who did not.

Descriptive characteristics for this study population

overall are called out in Tables 1-5 above. For a

summary by institution, see Appendix B.

Overall Results. Similar to the first set of models, when a

characteristic was found to be an important predictor

of graduation, the direction of that association was,

with the exception of SAT scores and

grant/scholarship/tuition waiver aid, the same across all

universities for which the factor was statistically

significant or approaching significance.

The Students

2008 Cohort | 90+ SCH

2.5+ GPA | No Degree

More men

More Hispanics

Lower SAT scores

Lower class rank

More part-time semesters

More major changes

More Pell Grant recipients (low-income)

More loan recipients

Less Texas Grant dollars

10 The University of Texas System

April 2017

Table 7. Significant Student Characteristics: Logistic Regression Results First-Time, Full-Time Undergraduate Degree-Seeking Students with 90 or More Attempted Hours and a Final

Semester GPA of at least 2.5, Fall 2008 Cohort

Factor UTA Austin UTD UTEP UTPB & UTT UTSA

% Semesters Enrolled Full-Time

Number of Major Changes ()

Received a Pell Grant

SAT ()

Cumulative G/S/T Aid*

Cumulative Merit Aid

Admissions Acceptance () ()

Gender ()

Cumulative Wages

Race/Ethnicity () () ()

SCH Attempted Year 1 ()

CAP Student N/A N/A ()

= significance at p<.05

() = p between .051 and .10 indicating that the factor is approaching significance.

Other Findings:

At Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio, students with higher test scores were more likely to

complete within six years than those with lower test scores.

At El Paso, students who received more cumulative dollars in grant, scholarship, and tuition

waiver aid were more likely to graduate than students with lower levels of this aid. However,

at San Antonio, non-graduates had higher levels of cumulative grant, scholarship, and tuition

waiver aid than did graduates.

Individuals who received higher amounts of merit aid (exclusive of TEXAS Grants) had an

increased likelihood of graduating than those with lower amounts (Arlington and San

Antonio).

Admission with a high school percentile within the top 10 was associated with an increased

likelihood of graduating, while being admitted on a provisional basis or other non-high school

Findings for Four or More Institutions:

Students, who had a higher percentage of semesters in which they enrolled full-

time, were more likely to be a completer than those who enrolled part-time during

some semesters (Arlington, Austin, Dallas, El Paso, and San Antonio).

The higher the number of times major was changed, the less likely the student was to

graduate within six years (Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Permian Basin/Tyler, and San

Antonio).

Students who had ever received a Pell Grant were less likely to graduate than those

students who had not (Arlington, Austin, El Paso, and San Antonio).

11 The University of Texas System

April 2017

percentile-related reason was associated with a decreased likelihood of graduating

(Arlington, Austin, and El Paso).

Males were less likely to graduate within this timeframe than were females (Permian

Basin/Tyler and San Antonio).

Conclusion Not surprisingly, consistent enrollment on a full-time basis appears to be a particularly key factor

associated with the likelihood of graduation for students at UT System academic institutions who

have attempted 90 or more credit hours and demonstrated academic ability in their final semester.

In addition, at many institutions, among this group of students, Pell recipients were less likely to

complete their degree. These two findings may be connected given that finances can contribute to

a student’s ability to enroll full-time. Lastly, the number of times these students changed their major is

a significant predictor of degree completion; the more times a student changed their major, the less

likely they were to complete their degree within six years.

Together these results suggest that finances and advising may have the ability to impact whether a

student, who has already attempted 90 or more credit hours and earned at least a 2.5 GPA in their

final semester, completes their degree. Identifying and employing advising interventions for students

who are having difficulty selecting a suitable major, and thus keeping major changes to a minimum,

may make these students more likely to complete their degree. Further, if the students in financial

need are identified and additional financial assistance is available to them, it may allow for them to

not only continue enrollment, but in some cases they may be able to enroll full-time and increase

their level of engagement on the campus, which could all help lead to degree completion.

As previously mentioned, nearly 600 students in the Fall 2008 first-time, full-time cohort failed to

graduate within six years from a UT System school or another Texas institution, even though they had

attempted 90 or more credit hours and had a final semester GPA high enough to suggest they were

academically able to continue in college. It is possible that an attainable amount of additional

financial and advising assistance would have led to successful completion, thereby salvaging the

investment both the students and institutions had made into their education and future. In addition, it

is likely the case that some students who did exit the UT System, but graduated from an institution

outside of it, also might have been retained if the factors that caused them to leave UT were

ameliorated. Early identification of those students with risk factors for dropping out after three or

more successful years of college may help UT institutions identify ways to support these students

through to graduation.

12 The University of Texas System

April 2017

Appendix A

Variables of Interest in the Logistic Regression Models

Variables Source Notes

Race/Ethnicity THECB, CBM001 Student Report

Gender THECB, CBM001 Student Report

Coordinated Admission

Program (CAP) Participant

THECB, CBM001 Student Report Whether student participated in the

Coordinated Admission Program (CAP).

https://admissions.utexas.edu/enroll/cap Number of Times Major

Changed

THECB, CBM001 Student Report Major changes were calculated at the

broad two-digit level. For example, a

transition from CIP 14.01 (Engineering,

General) to CIP 40.08 (Physics) was

considered a change in major, while a

change from CIP 14.01 to CIP 14.25

(Petroleum Engineering) was not.

SCH Attempted in First Year THECB, CBM001 Student Report Total number of semester credit hours

(SCH) attempted during the student’s

first year enrolled.

% Semesters Enrolled Full-

Time

THECB, CBM001 Student Report Percentage of semesters enrolled in

which the student enrolled for 12 or

more hours.

Admissions Acceptance

Status

THECB, CBM00B Responses combined to form new

categories: 1) Accepted and ranked in

top 10% of high school graduating class;

2) Accepted and ranked in 11-25% of

high school graduating class; or 3)

Accepted on provisional basis or on

other criteria.

Received a Pell Grant THECB, Financial Aid Database

Cumulative Grant,

Scholarship, and Tuition

Waiver Aid Received

THECB, Financial Aid Database

Cumulative Merit Aid

Received

THECB, Financial Aid Database Excludes TEXAS Grant aid.

Cumulative Earned Wages

while Enrolled

Texas Workforce Commission (TWC)

unemployment insurance (UI)

wage records

Note that UI wage records do not

include earnings from work-study

programs.

GPA for last enrolled term THECB, CBM00S Student Schedule

Report

Calculated GPA for the student’s last

regular term of enrollment.

13 The University of Texas System

April 2017

Appendix B

Descriptive Tables: Students with 90 or More Attempted Hours and a Final Semester GPA of 2.5

First-Time, Full-Time, Degree-Seeking Students, Fall 2008 Cohort

Table B.1 Gender and Race/Ethnicity*

Starting

Institution*

*

Received

Bachelor’s Degree

from Any School Count % Male % Female

% African

American

% Asian

American

%

Hispanic

% Native

American % White

UTA No 80 56% 44% 5% 23% 28% 1% 39%

Yes 850 44% 56% 13% 22% 21% 0% 42%

Austin No 146 46% 54% 8% 17% 29% 0% 45%

Yes 4,673 43% 57% 4% 20% 18% 0% 56%

UTD No 20 75% 25% 25% 20% 10% 0% 45%

Yes 640 57% 43% 4% 35% 8% 0% 50%

UTEP No 126 44% 56% 2% 1% 90% 0% 4%

Yes 649 42% 58% 2% 2% 88% 0% 6%

UTPB No 8 63% 38% 0% 0% 75% 0% 25%

Yes 98 44% 56% 3% 1% 40% 0% 53%

UTSA No 199 56% 44% 12% 10% 39% 1% 35%

Yes 1,671 45% 55% 9% 13% 34% 0% 43%

UTT No 13 54% 46% 0% 8% 0% 0% 92%

Yes 234 38% 62% 8% 5% 9% 0% 78%

*Students whose race/ethnicity was classified as “International” or “Unknown” were not included in this analysis. Therefore, the race/ethnicity

categories do not total 100%.

** The Fall 2008 cohorts for Pan American and Brownsville are not included in this study, as these institutions closed at the end of AY 2015. UT Rio

Grande Valley began enrolling students in Fall 2015.

Table B.2 Admissions Status, SAT Score, and Last GPA

Starting

Institution*

Received

Bachelor’s

Degree from

Any School Count

%

Admitted

Top 10

%

Admitted

11-25th

%

Admitted

Other

CAP

Student

SAT

Average

SAT

Median

GPA Last

Regular

Term

Average

GPA Last

Regular

Term

Median

UTA No 80 10% 29% 61% 16% 1071 1070 3.282 3.261

Yes 850 26% 29% 45% 14% 1091 1080 3.427 3.500

Austin No 146 60% 17% 23% 0% 1195 1195 3.217 3.184

Yes 4,673 72% 14% 13% 0% 1251 1260 3.500 3.583

UTD No 20 25% 0% 75% 0% 1206 1230 3.352 3.208

Yes 640 34% 1% 65% 0% 1273 1280 3.563 3.667

UTEP No 126 13% 18% 69% 0% 899 880 3.209 3.000

Yes 649 26% 27% 47% 3% 955 950 3.469 3.500

UTPB No 8 25% 38% 38% 0% 965 975 3.158 3.198

Yes 98 30% 21% 49% 4% 1029 1005 3.509 3.500

UTSA No 199 8% 18% 74% 22% 1020 1010 3.107 3.000

Yes 1,671 10% 15% 74% 37% 1067 1070 3.407 3.445

UTT No 13 8% 31% 62% 23% 875 990 3.040 2.917

Yes 234 22% 13% 65% 9% 925 990 3.407 3.438

* The Fall 2008 cohorts for Pan American and Brownsville are not included in this study, as these institutions closed at the end of AY 2015. UT Rio

Grande Valley began enrolling students in Fall 2015.

14 The University of Texas System

April 2017

Table B.3 Financial Aid and Work Status

Starting

Institution*

Received

Bachelor’s

Degree from

Any School Count

% Took Out

a Federal

Loan

% Received

a Pell Grant

% Received

a TEXAS

Grant

% Received

Any

G/S/T**

Aid

% Received

Merit Aid

% Received

Any Aid

% Worked

Any While

in School

UTA No 80 66% 53% 23% 70% 16% 81% 78%

Yes 850 58% 49% 25% 80% 53% 87% 77%

Austin No 146 62% 49% 32% 62% 17% 71% 71%

Yes 4,673 49% 29% 19% 51% 13% 59% 71%

UTD No 20 50% 30% 10% 80% 60% 85% 55%

Yes 640 61% 27% 13% 85% 68% 92% 75%

UTEP No 126 73% 76% 47% 87% 29% 93% 87%

Yes 649 62% 71% 43% 87% 42% 92% 81%

UTPB No 8 75% 75% 38% 88% 75% 100% 100%

Yes 98 50% 42% 20% 98% 90% 98% 90%

UTSA No 199 73% 51% 31% 62% 5% 78% 78%

Yes 1,671 57% 40% 23% 59% 13% 73% 68%

UTT No 13 62% 54% 46% 77% 38% 85% 77%

Yes 234 52% 38% 24% 76% 47% 84% 80%

*The Fall 2008 cohorts for Pan American and Brownsville are not included in this study, as these institutions closed at the end of AY 2015. UT Rio

Grande Valley began enrolling students in Fall 2015.

**G/S/T Aid refers to grants, scholarships, tuition waivers, and other forms of aid that can be applied directly toward tuition.

Table B.4 Median Amount of Financial Aid Received and Wages Earned While Enrolled

Starting

Institution*

Received

Bachelor’s

Degree from

Any School Count

Median

Total

Loans

Median

Total Pell

Median

Total

Texas

Grant

Median

Total

G/S/T**

Aid

Median

Merit Aid

Median All

Aid

Median

Wages

While in

School

UTA No 80 $17,556 $11,000 $18,140 $17,691 $1,350 $35,367 $10,707

Yes 850 $21,962 $15,384 $25,240 $23,307 $4,875 $42,683 $8,288

Austin No 146 $27,507 $15,906 $16,360 $37,650 $6,250 $63,722 $4,925

Yes 4,673 $28,108 $15,181 $23,140 $28,007 $7,250 $62,774 $3,159

UTD No 20 $25,950 $8,447 $11,360 $7,628 $5,343 $35,275 $18,358

Yes 640 $16,368 $15,381 $22,671 $39,411 $33,190 $49,201 $6,656

UTEP No 126 $15,393 $19,114 $11,360 $25,671 $1,605 $39,947 $9,831

Yes 649 $13,838 $21,881 $23,140 $38,738 $3,600 $48,838 $8,261

UTPB No 8 $12,192 $13,662 $4,180 $22,549 $3,750 $28,871 $22,530

Yes 98 $12,724 $12,181 $6,164 $17,178 $5,000 $27,067 $9,550

UTSA No 199 $27,069 $15,731 $11,360 $21,003 $1,000 $42,681 $12,351

Yes 1,671 $25,604 $16,450 $21,360 $13,681 $2,000 $46,605 $5,559

UTT No 13 $16,090 $20,719 $16,445 $24,514 $6,320 $40,832 $8,261

Yes 234 $23,184 $11,331 $21,690 $13,248 $9,000 $35,726 $6,667

*The Fall 2008 cohorts for Pan American and Brownsville are not included in this study, as these institutions closed at the end of AY 2015. UT Rio

Grande Valley began enrolling students in Fall 2015.

**G/S/T Aid refers to grants, scholarships, tuition waivers, and other forms of aid that can be applied directly toward tuition.

15 The University of Texas System

April 2017

i The University of Texas System, Office of Strategic Initiatives (November 2015). Education Impact #1: The Value

of Completing a Degree. (http://data.utsystem.edu/documents/EdImpact1-Completion.pdf)

Carnevale, A. P., Cheah, B., & Hanson, A. R. (May 2015). The Economic Value of College Majors. Washington,

DC: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. (https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-

content/uploads/The-Economic-Value-of-College-Majors-Full-Report-web-FINAL.pdf)

ii Cunningham, A.F. & Kienzl, G.S. (March 2011). Delinquency: The Untold Story of Student Loan Borrowing.

Washington, DC: Institute for Higher Education Policy.

(http://www.ihep.org/sites/default/files/uploads/docs/pubs/delinquency-

the_untold_story_final_march_2011.pdf)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (May 2015). Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S.

Households in 2014. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

(http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/2014-report-economic-well-being-us-households-201505.pdf)

Mezza, A. & Sommer, K. (October 16, 2015). A Trillion Dollar Question: What Predicts Student Loan Delinquency

Risk? Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

(http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2015/trillion-dollar-question-what-predicts-

student-loan-delinquency-risk-20151016.html)

iii Klor de Alva, J. & Schneider, M. (May 2011). Who Wins? Who Pays?: The Economic Returns and Costs of a

Bachelor’s Degree. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research and San Francisco, CA: Nexus Research

and Policy Center.

(http://www.air.org/sites/default/files/downloads/report/WhoWins_bookmarked_050411_0.pdf)

Schneider, M. & Yin, L.M. (August 2011). The High Cost of Low Graduation Rates: How Much Does Dropping Out

of College Really Cost? Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research.

(http://www.air.org/sites/default/files/downloads/report/AIR_High_Cost_of_Low_Graduation_Aug2011_0.pdf)

iv Wellman, J., Johnson, N., & Steele, P. (September 2012). Measuring (and Managing) the Invisible Costs of

Postsecondary Attrition. Washington, DC: Delta Cost Project at American Institutes for Research.

(http://www.deltacostproject.org/sites/default/files/products/Delta-Cost-Policy-Brief-Cost-Of-Attrition.pdf)

v Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (2015). Higher Education Accountability System.

(http://www.txhighereddata.org/Interactive/Accountability/)

vi Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (2015). Higher Education Accountability System.

vii Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (2015). Higher Education Accountability System. Note:

Coordinated Admission Program (CAP) students are included in the graduation rate calculation and, therefore,

are not considered to have graduated from their initial institution if they transferred to UT Austin after their first

year.

viii Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (2015). Higher Education Accountability System.

ix Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (2015). CBM001: Student Report.

x Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (2015). CBM001: Student Report.

xixi The UT System Coordinated Admissions Program: https://admissions.utexas.edu/enroll/cap

xii Cunningham & Kienzl (March 2011); Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (May 2015); Mezza, A.

& Sommer, K. (October 16, 2015).