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Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada: A review and recommendations Pierre Pepin, Jackie King, Carrie Holt, Helen Gurney- Smith, Nancy Shackell, Kevin Hedges, Alida Bundy Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC 1

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Page 1: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments

in Canada: A review and recommendationsPierre Pepin, Jackie King, Carrie Holt, Helen Gurney-

Smith, Nancy Shackell, Kevin Hedges, Alida BundyFisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC

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Page 2: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

1. Decrease in ecosystem consideration from conceptual hypothesis (46%) stage to management advice (27%)

2. A combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches for accounting for ecosystem considerations is required

3. Frequent re-evaluation of hypotheses and metrics is required under changing climate and ecosystem status.

4. Critical gap: Evaluation of the performance of management decisions with and without ecosystem considerations

5. Critical gap: Seasonal to decadal ocean projections at appropriate spatial scales are required

2

Key messages

Page 3: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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1.5°C increase temperature

IPCC 2019 Keith Ellenbogen

Oceana

Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management

Page 4: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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Countries with marine fisheries most vulnerable to climate change

Canada 54th of 147

Wikimedia commons

USA 142th

EU 79th - 147th

South Africa 130th

Australia 133rd

(Blasiak et al., 2017)

Page 5: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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Climate impactsTemperature, wind, turbulence

Circulation patterns

CO2 and O2: acidification

American Geosciences Institute

Beachsafe.org.au

Arterra/UIG/Getty

Sea ice

Ropos.com

MBARI

Trophic structure and spatial distribution

Benthic habitat

Page 6: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

To what extent do Canadian fish stock assessments apply environmental information to models, assessments, or advice to Resource Management?

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Objective

• 178 recent stock advisory documents, by taxonomic group and region

• Evaluated general conceptual knowledge, methods for consideration, and whether advice was informed by environmental variables

Page 7: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

• Climate (C) drivers: long-term (multi-year) variations and trends in regional or large-scale atmospheric processes

• Oceanographic (O) drivers: associated with climatic variability but include short-term and/or regional variability

• Ecological (E) drivers: broad range of ecosystem features, e.g., trophic interactions and habitat requirements

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Environmental Drivers

guardian

IPCC

El niño

Ropos.com

Page 8: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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Page 9: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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Year of assessment

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Pro

porti

on o

f ass

essm

ents

with

clim

ate,

ocea

nogr

aphi

c or

eco

logi

cal c

onsi

dera

tions

in q

uest

ions

1 to

4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Num

ber o

f ass

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ents

con

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per y

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licat

ion

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Number

Q1 Broad-scale processes or hypothesesQ2 QuantitativelyQ3 Quality to explain trendsQ4 In advice to resource management

Proportion of assessments that include environmental (C,O,E) variables

Results

Number of assessments

( )

Page 10: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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Results

Proportion of assessments that include environmental (C,O,E) variables

46%

27%

21%

31%

Page 11: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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Results

Taxa Concept Quantitative Qualitative Advice Scale

Anadromous 0.58 0.65 0.46 0.58 0.65

Pelagic 0.50 0.14 0.43 0.36 0.33

Invertebrate 0.53 0.17 0.36 0.26 0.00

Groundfish 0.44 0.15 0.22 0.15

Mammal 0.21 0.11 0.21 0.26

Elasmobranch 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.00

Proportion of assessments that include environmental (C,O,E) variables

In Advice

Atlantic & Pacific

Northern

Page 12: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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Approaches for including in assessmentQualitatively

• Explain trends (temporal and spatial)

• Explain anomalies• Forecast based on

categorical indices (e.g., stoplights)

• Account for uncertainties

Quantitatively

Proportion of assessments that include environmental (C,O,E) variables

Page 13: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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Approaches for including in advice

When not considered in advice, why not?

• Inform implementation of harvest control rule, HCR (90% of cases)

• via time-varying parameters in models (31%)

• Provide expectation for future potential• Sensitivity of HCR performance to

uncertainty in climate impacts• Occasionally used qualitatively to

recommend precaution in choice of TAC or exploitation rates

• Gap: ¼ of these did not include hypothesized mechanisms, being based on exploratory analyses

• Data limitations (45%)• Lack of mechanisms (39%)• Climate dwarfed by other factors (17%)

Page 14: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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International examplesUS: Pacific Sardine, Arrowtooth flounder, Pink salmon…Australia: Rock Lobster. Bluefin Tuna…Europe: Blue Whiting, Bay of Biscay Anchovy…

Bay of Biscay Anchovy: correlation between upwelling and recruitment included in advice to management late 1990s, until 2000/2001 when relationship broke down

r2=0.7Recruitment

index

Upwelling index (m3/s/km)

NOAA Ecosystem Status Reports

(Borja et al. 1996;1998; ICES 2001; 2005)

Page 15: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

• Decrease in ecosystem consideration from conceptual stage to advice

• A combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches is likely required

• Frequent re-evaluation of hypotheses and metrics is required under changing climate and ecosystem status.

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Key points

Critical gaps• Evaluation of the management

performance with and without ecosystem considerations (Management Strategy Evaluation and retrospectively)

• Seasonal to decadal ocean projections

• Impacts on Arctic species

National Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management Working Group (DFO 2019-2023)

Page 16: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

Countries already developed / are developing strategies are: • USA • Australia • ICES • South Africa • ICCAT

Summary of common elements are: • vulnerability risk assessments • reviews of research impact • considers both multiple marine industries• development of adaptation options, • stakeholder engagement • management responses (e.g. EBFM) • a need for funding and capacity

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Recommendation: Climate and Fisheries Strategy

Page 17: Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments in Canada:

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Thank you

Pepin, P., King, J. Holt, C., Gurney-Smith, H., Shackell, N., Hedges, K., Bundy, A. (in press). Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population

assessments: A review of Fisheries and Ocean’s science advisory process. DFO Can. Sci. Avis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2019/nnn

Jason Link, Kirstin Holsman, Patrick Lynch, Brian Mackenzie, Andrew Edwards, Karen Hunter, Jake Rice, Daniel Duplisea, Marie-Julie Roux