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CIS Workshop Climate Change and Water, 20-21 November 2007, Bonn

Including climate change in river basin planning

Anna Leipprand, Thomas Dworak, Eleftheria Kampa

Ecologic

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CIS Workshop Climate Change and Water, 20-21 November 2007, Bonn 2

Aim of the input paper

• Support discussion on:• How can climate change impacts be dealt

with in first and subsequent WFD cycles?• What aspects should be considered by

Member States ( Checklist)?• What information should be recorded and

reported to the Commission ( RBMP chapter)

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CIS Workshop Climate Change and Water, 20-21 November 2007, Bonn 3

Climate change...

• ... is caused by anthropogenic activity (GHG emissions),

• ... but is it an „anthropogenic pressure“ in the sense of the WFD?

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CIS Workshop Climate Change and Water, 20-21 November 2007, Bonn 4

Dealing with uncertainty• Indications about trends exist - but there are

uncertainties and data gaps:– Model uncertainty & scenario uncertainty– Seasonal/annual variations masking longer-term

trends – Lack of modelling data at regional/river basin scale

• But: investments today determine adaptive capacity in the future!

Robust and flexible strategies; no-regret measures

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CIS Workshop Climate Change and Water, 20-21 November 2007, Bonn 5

Physical characteristics of

water bodies

Frequency & intensity of floods and

droughts

Water quantity/flow levels

Mitigation and adaptation activities

Changes in demand from water users

CC impacts on water

Ref. conditions, WB types

Changes in demand - supply balance

Impacts of anthropogenic

pressures

... what do they mean for WFD issues?

Risk analysis - distance to target

Water quality

... and for WFD action?

Adaptation and WFD: synergies or

conflicts?

Costs and benefits of measures

Climate-proofing PoMs

(Cost-) Effectiveness of

measures

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CIS Workshop Climate Change and Water, 20-21 November 2007, Bonn 6

ChecklistDefining good status – reference conditions, water body types (Art. 4)

Setting environmental objectives (Art. 4)

Characterisation (Art. 5, Annex II)

Environmental impact of human activity (Art. 5, Annex II)

Risk assessment (Art. 5, Annex II)

Economic analysis (Art. 5 & 9)

Monitoring (Art. 8)

Programmes of Measures (Art. 11)

Programmes of Measures: protected areas (Art. 6 & 11)

Public participation (Art. 14)

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CIS Workshop Climate Change and Water, 20-21 November 2007, Bonn 7

Questions• Main impacts of climate change on certain regions?• What elements of the river basin management planning

could be directly impacted by climate change?• Where could climate change have indirect impacts on

the water status/RBMPs by changes in water uses?• Action to be undertaken/Adaptation measures in

RBMP?• How deal with uncertainties?• Recommendations for improving the Science/Policy

link?

ecologic.eu

CIS Workshop Climate Change and Water, 20-21 November 2007, Bonn

Thank you for your attention.

Anna Leipprand

Ecologic, Pfalzburger Str. 43-44, D-10717 Berlin +49-30-86880-0, +49-30-86880-100

leipprand{at}ecologic{dot}de, www.ecologic.eu