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INCCA: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment A Climate Change Initiative Subodh Sharma, Adviser Ministry of Environment & Forests Slide 2 Context Climate Change Impact of human activities on climate systems is unequivocal. Observed changes in climate over the Indian region: An increase of 0.4 o C in the last 100 years Substantial changes in precipitation on a spatial scale An increase in intensity of heavy precipitation events Rise in sea level along the Indian coast @ 1.06-1.25 mm/year over last 40 years Climate projections indicate- Rise in temperature by 2-4 o C by 2050s Decrease in number of rainy days Increase in intensity of rain fall Adverse impacts on key economic sectors and vulnerabilities of climate sensitive regions Slide 3 Relevance Indias socio-economic setting Over 50% of population (> 500 million) without access to electricity. Over 75% of household energy consumption is for the basic human need of cooking. Over 70% households use traditional biomass for cooking 34.7% and 79.9% population below income level of $1 and $2 a day respectively Illiteracy, Gender Inequality/Disempowerment, High Infant Mortality Rate and Maternal Mortality Rate, Poor Health & Housing result in Indias low Human Development Index (HDI) India needs inclusive GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to lift the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of economic & social well being. Slide 4 Climate Change Impacts our activities in various Economic sectors And ultimately Sustainable development Food security Energy Security Economic growth and development The Concerns Slide 5 Climate Change in the Indian Context Slide 6 Spatial patterns of projected seasonal surface air temperature change (C) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. (SRES IS92a) Climate Change Projections Spatial patterns of projected seasonal precipitation change (mm) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations (SRES Is92a) Seasonal Temperature projections Seasonal Precipitation projections Slide 7 Projected Climate Change over India Increase in rainfall by 15-40% by the end of the 21st century with high regional variability increase in mean annual temperature by 3C to 6C by the end of 21 st century. The warming is projected to be more pronounced over land areas, with the maximum increase over northern India. The warming is also relatively greater in winter and post-monsoon seasons. Slide 8 Salient Findings Climate Change Parameters Trends for 2030s in A1B FeaturesHimalayan region Western Ghats Coastal Region North- Eastern Region Temperature Precipitation Extreme Temperature Extreme Precipitation Intensity No. of Rainy days increase Slight increase No changedecrease Key No particular trend Slide 9 FeaturesHimalayan region Western Ghats Coastal region North- Eastern region Agricultural productivity Water resources Net Primary Productivity Transmission windows for Malaria increase Slight increase No changedecrease Key Salient Findings Trends in Impacts for 2030s in A1B No particular trend Slide 10 Agriculture Water Coastal zones Forests Impact Assessments Malaria 2.5t/ha (Control) 4.5/ha (Climate Change) 4.5t/ha (Control) 2.5/ha (Climate Change) Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular stressed conditions Rare water shortages Dry savannah Xeric Shrub land Xeric woodland Tropical Seasonal Forest Boreal Evergreen Tundra Slide 11 Projected Impact on River Runoff for the Period 2040-60 Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions Rare water shortages Slide 12 Impacts on Forest Biomes Dry savannah Tropical Seasonal Forest Boreal Evergreen Tundra Xeric Shrub land Xeric woodland Forest biomes in India seem to be highly vulnerable to the projected change Majority of the vegetation is likely to be less optimally adapted to its existing location Biodiversity is also likely to be adversely impacted Slide 13 Current Endemic regions of malaria Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s Impacts of Climate Change on Health- Malaria Increase in temperature is projected to enhance the occurrence and spread of Malaria Malaria is likely to occur at elevations higher than 1800m More states may offer climate opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year. Transmission windows may increase by 3-5 months in northern states and may reduce by 2-3 months in the southern states. Slide 14 Impact of increasing temperature on future wheat production Any decrease in irrigation in Indo Gangatic Plains (IGP) would further reduce yields Slide 15 Vulnerable areas along Indian Coastline A long term average rising trend of 1 mm/year in sea level observed Sea level changes are also due to Tectonic movement Prevalent hydrography Physiography. A one-meter sea level rise is projected to displace approximately 7.1 million people in India and about 5764 km 2 of land area will be lost along with 4200 km of roads Slide 16 Emerging science questions What is the current climate trend across the key regions in the country and how is it likely to behave in the in short, medium and long term future? What are the implications of the projected changes of climate on ecosystems specific to these regions? What are implications of changes in ecosystems on human societies including its health and migration of population in these regions? What are the adaptation needs and associated costs? What are the trends of agents of change? How can we use the evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change? Slide 17 Objectives Objective 1: Observe and understand the short- and long-term changes in climate over India Objective 2: Understand the impacts of changes in climate on key sectors of economy and at regional scales Objective 3: Develop comprehensive climate change assessment and adaptation frameworks Objective 4: To analyse the trends of greenhouse gas, other trace gas and pollutants emitted from various sectors Objective 5: To build capacity for undertaking research to understand the changes in climate and related environment and develop strategies to combat the change Slide 18 Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) : Institutional Mechanism To build on existing network of Institutions (e.g. NATCOM) that comprise of Research institutions, Universities, Technical institutions, NGOs, private sector wide Propose to involve Indian Expertise abroad Create/Associate New Agencies and/or Devise Operational Arrangements Participating Institutions shall serve as the KNOWLEDGE INSTITUTIONS Slide 19 INCAA Programmes Impact Assessments Developing scenarios Integrated V&A Assessments INCCA Black Carbon Centre for Advanced Studies Ecosystem Monitoring Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme Climate Change Fellowships Slide 20 Programme Components of INCAA Impact Assessments Developing scenarios Climate change Socio-economic Natural ecosystem Water Agriculture Health Integrated V&A Assessments Water-Agri-food security-livelihood Water-Gender-Poverty Water-health-livelihhood Forest-livelihoods Ecosystem-Livelihoods Sea level rise- extreme event-livelihoods INCAA Black Carbon Sources Monitoring & Modeling Impacts Centre for Advanced Studies Climate change & Biodiversity Ecosystem Monitoring Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme Slide 21 Deliverables INCAA will provide: Annual Level Assessments at various levels An Integrated Assessment of Science and Impacts of climate change in India across sectors Archive and publish model products, scenarios, visualization products, assessments tools and approaches of assessments Slide 22 The INCCA Assessments Released in Novemeber,2010 Released in May, 2010 Available at www.moef.nic.in CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA: A 4X4 ASSESSMENT A SECTORAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS FOR 2030S INCCA: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment November 2010 Ministry of Environment & Forests Government of India INCCA Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment India: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007 Ministry of Environment and Forests Government of India May 2010 Slide 23 INCAA & Network for preparation of GHG inventories 2007 Slide 24 Key Results The total net Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from India in 2007 were 1727.71 million tons of CO 2 equivalent (eq) of which - CO 2 emissions were 1221.76 million tons; - CH 4 emissions were 20.56 million tons; and - N 2 O emissions were 0.57 million tons GHG emissions from Energy, Industry, Agriculture, and Waste sectors constituted 58%, 22%, 17% and 3% of the net CO 2 eq emissions respectively. Energy sector emitted 1100.06 million tons of CO 2 eq, of which 719.31 million tons of CO 2 eq were emitted from electricity generation and 142.04 million tons of CO 2 eq from the transport sector. Industry sector emitted 412.55 million tons of CO 2 eq. LULUCF sector was a net sink. It sequestered 177.03 million tons of CO 2. Indias per capita CO 2 eq emissions including LULUCF were 1.5 tons/capita in 2007. Slide 25 The 4x4 Assessment Focus on 4 climate sensitive regions in India -Himalayan Region -North Eastern Region -Western Ghats -Coastal region Assess what would be the likely impacts in 2030s on -Agriculture -Ecosystems and biodiversity - Water resources and - Human health affected by climate variability 2030s, appropriate for A1B scenario for adaptation. Slide 26 Emerging results - Agriculture There is a general decrease in productivity of crops however cash crops like coconut may increase. Some species of marine fisheries are likely to have higher catch compared to others as their area of spawning shifts to higher latitudes The livestock productivity is likely to be affected adversely with increase in extreme temperatures Irrigated rice Rainfed rice Slide 27 Projected changes - Water Water yield Himalayan region: is likely to increase North Eastern region: Reduction Western ghats: Variable water yield changes projected across the region Coastal region: A general reduction in water yield Slide 28 Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity Forests: Changes in vegetation type and decrease in Net Primary productivity is projected Grass land: Enhanced CO 2 levels are projected to favor C3 plants over C 4 grasses, but the projected increase in temperature would favour C4 plants Coral reefs: Increase in temperature will lead to bleaching of corals Mangroves: Sea-level rise leading to increase the salinity may favour mangrove plants that tolerate higher salinity Key: 1: Tropical evergreen forest/woodland, 2: Tropical deciduous forest/woodland, 3: Temperate evergreen broadleaf forest/woodland, 4: Temperate evergreen conifer forest/woodland, 5: Temperate deciduous forest/woodland, 6: Boreal evergreen forest/woodland, 7: Boreal deciduous forest/woodland, 8: Mixed forest/woodland, 9: Savanna, 10: Grassland/steppe, 11: Dense shrubland, 12: Open shrubland, 13: Tundra, 14: Desert, 15: Polar desert/rock/ice Projected changes in Forest vegetation Slide 29 Projected Changes in Human Health Likely increase in morbidity due to rise in extreme temperatures Likely increase in morbidity and mortality due to increase in water borne diseases (enhanced flooding and SLR) Reduced crop yields may raise malnutrition cases (climate) Increase in incidence of malaria due to opening up of transmission windows at higher altitudes (climate) 1970s 2030s Transmission windows of Malaria Slide 30 Geographic Hierarchy LocalNationalRegional/ Global Capacity BuildingMonitoring, observation Awareness/assessment at state/ district/ community levels Scientific assessment, measurement, models, national research agenda Participation in global/ regional modeling and assessments Knowledge/ Information Locale specific databases, scenarios and assessment, local monitoring networks Research networks, National databases (e.g. NATCOM), scientific and policy models, national scenarios, technology inventory Interface with IPCC assessments, interfacing with regional/global databases, scenarios and assessments, technology inventory database Institutions/ PartnershipsCommunity initiatives, Early warning networks Stakeholders networks, public/ private programs FCCC processes, trans- boundary impacts assessment Policy/ InstrumentsLocal specific adaptation plans, community based adaptation programs Science-policy linkage, economic instruments (e.g. insurance, R&D funds), integration with national development/ planning process Adaptation funds, trans- boundary regulations TechnologyLocale specific technology adaptation Targeted R&D, Technology transfer protocols, demonstration/ pilot projects Scientific exchange, technology transfer Strategies Approaches to address Climate Change Slide 31 Relevance and Opportunities for Geospatial Technologies Aerial Photography Remote Sensing Surveying Mapping Data Analysis and Integration In a number of Application Segments in the area of Forestry Environmental Management Climate Change Disaster Management Integrated Coastal Zone Management Earth Observation System GHG Monitoring Enhanced Relevance in light of the recent Cancun Agreements and Reporting requirements of the Parties Slide 32 Thank You! Slide 33 Institutional Arrangement- Inventory Slide 34 INCCA - Green House Gas Inventory Estimation Green House Gas Emissions LULUCF NBSSLUPFSI UAS-B IFGTB AFRI ARCBR HFRI TFRI CFRHRD IWST ISRO IIRS NRSC ICFRE CSFE FRCEH RRI Agriculture IARI NDRI IGFRI IVRI Industrial Processes & Product Use CMA CII CGCRI ISCA AMA ILZDA FAI EIAI NEERI Waste NPL CPCB NSWAI EPTRI NIUA Energy CEACIMFR TERI CRRI PCRA SIAM CRRI JU IIP ARAI NATRIP CMA INCCA MoEF Slide 35 Institutional Arrangement V&A