in this issuevideo.geckosoftware.com/newsletters/4/129.pdf · trading system to a complete...
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�PitNews.com Magazine August �009 ��
Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, stocks, and forex can be substantial. See Page 19 for more information.
In this issue...
Hurricane’s Impact on Commodities By: Jordanna Sheermohamed 07
Editor in Chief:Lan H. Turner
Editor: Scott [email protected]
Managing Editor: Aaron [email protected]
National Sales Manager:Erik Akins
Art Director: Matthew Langenheim
Production Manager: Keegan Garrity
Controller: Joseph Chambers
Webmaster: Jacob Anawalt
Website:http://www.pitnews.com
Email:[email protected]
Off The Wall By: Mr.O (Bob) Using Fibonacci calculations, Mr.O from The Wall examines the sugar market.10
Track ‘n Trade Autopilot Review By: Lan H. Turner Very simply put, our Autopilot is more than just a simple trading system, it was developed with the individual trader in mind...03How weather affects daily lives is something that has fascinated individuals for hundreds of years...
Continue Soaring With the
By: Lan H. TurnerCEO Gecko Software, Inc.Editor-In-Chief PitNews Magazine
Autopilot
�PitNews.com Magazine August 2009
Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, stocks, and forex can be substantial. See Page 19 for more information.
In this article, I just want to give a quick overview of the new Track ‘n Trade Autopilot, and to help you understand “The Wisdom Behind The Mechanics!”
It’s long been said, “Where Systems Fail, Methods prevail.” This phrase has long been the
standing order of business here at Gecko Software, so why now would we change our thoughts on this matter, and come out with a System Execution Autopilot Package?
Very simply put, our Autopilot is more than just a simple trading system, it was developed with the individual trader in mind, and with the mindset that trading methods are more powerful and more profitable than trading systems alone.
Traditionally speaking, a trading system has been a mechanically computerized method of buying and selling each time you receive a signal from an indicator. Most “systems” are designed around a traditional indicator, and are as simple as buying each time you receive a buy signal, and selling each time you receive a sell signal. This style of system trading has, in the past, proven to be the downfall of many otherwise would-be successful traders. Simply jumping into a market each time you get a buy signal and jumping back out each time you get a sell signal is a sure fire way of giving up your holdings to someone else.
It is for this purpose that we here at Gecko Software have created the Autopilot system trading platform in such a fashion that we integrate the advantages of system trading, with the advantages of method trading, allowing the Track ‘n Trade Autopilot to automatically execute your own personal trading methodology, not just a simple trading system.
Adding the ability of multiple market entry styles, with varying degrees of calculated accuracy, along with a multi-tude of options for market exit strategies, including auto-trailing stops, limit orders, and OCO or one-cancels-other orders changes the playing field from a simple mechanical
trading system to a complete automated trading method-ology, bringing the likelihood of success to a much higher level of opportunity.
For starters, one of the settings we’ve developed into the Autopilot system is the Risk & Money Management System.
One of the first questions we need to ask ourselves when entering a trade, is how many contracts do we want to use? The trade quantity is simply the number of contracts (futures) or lots (Forex) that you would like to trade with each signal, but with the Autopilot system, we’ve given you the ability to have the computer automatically calculate how many contracts or lots you should be trading, based on your own personal risk tolerance, and percentage of your account you are willing to risk on any one trade. The “Trade Percentage” component of quantity is a calculation of your total account balance. If you enter 25%, with a 10 Max, Track ‘n Trade will calculate how many contracts or lots you can trade based on a 25% risk factor of your account; Once your quantity calculation exceeds 10 contracts or lots, Track ‘n Trade will limit the number of contracts traded to 10.
Let me give you an example: Let’s say you have a $25,000.00 trading account. If you choose to limit your risk to 25% of your account, and one contract has a margin of $500.00, then 25% of $25,000.00 is $6,250.00, therefore Track ‘n Trade will execute your trades using a quantity of 12. A quantity of 12 is used because $6,250.00 divided by $500.00 is quantity 12.5. As your profits increase or decrease, Track ‘n Trade will automatically scale up or down the trade quantity.
Another great feature found in the Track ‘n Trade Autopilot Trading System is the ability to select a “Conditional Indicator.” It’s often said to never rely solely on one indicator alone, therefore Track ‘n Trade gives
Gecko Software, Inc271 N. Spring Creek Pkwy Ste. AProvidence, UT 84332Website: www.TrackNTrade.comPhone: 800-862-7193Email: [email protected]: An auto-trading robot with indicator back-testing capabilitiesRequirements: XP or Vista, 1024 x 768 or higher screen resolution, 2GB RAM, 2.4 GHZ or higher CPU, Broadband connection, TNT Live (Forex or Futures)Price: $197
PRODUCT REVIEW
�PitNews.com Magazine August 2009
Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, stocks, and forex can be substantial. See Page 19 for more information.
the ability to setup a trading strategy based on a primar-ily indicator, which must be confirmed by a “Conditional Indicator,” prior to taking the trade.
The rules for applying the conditional indicator are such that if your conditional indicator throws a buy/sell arrow in the same direction as the primary indicator, and those two arrows fall within the margin of error listed in the (+) Plus or (-) Minus boxes, then Track ‘n Trade will execute a position. If the two indicators are not in agreement, by the margin of error, then no position will be executed.
Track ‘n Trade can take advantage of using many differ-ent order entry and exit strategies, and allows the user to choose auto-trailing stops, limit orders and OCO or One-Cancels-Other orders in a variety of different scenarios. One very important feature is that all stop and limit orders placed from within the Track ‘n Trade Autopilot system are done using OCO or One-Cancels-Other-Orders, therefore whenever your stop loss order is hit, Track ‘n Trade will automatically cancel your limit order, or if your limit order is hit, Track ‘n Trade will automatically cancel your stop loss order.
I often get the question asked, “How can a computer handle an indicator or trading system which throws multi-ple buy and sell signals in a row?” Many popular indicators throw multiple buy signals in a row, or multiple sell signals in a row. Generally speaking, this has been the downfall of
many trading systems, but Track ‘n Trade has auto-sensing market condition formulas to handle this situation. Track ‘n Trade will place an initial entry order on the first signal, then wait for the market to hit and execute the trade, but if the market doesn’t move to a point that would fill the initial entry point? Track ‘n Trade will leave and continue to monitor the entry order at the specified price until another signal is generated. Upon receiving another new buy or sell signal from the indicator, Track ‘n Trade will automatically cancel and delete the old orders, and reset the order entry setup strategy based upon the new signal.
Track ‘n Trade also has a number of specialty features or filters as we call them. One such feature is the “Thrust Bar Regulator.” Just like on an engine, if the market revs up too high, the Thrust Bar Regulator will keep the Autopilot from entering the market.
If selected, you can specify how high, or low you are willing to allow the market to move during any single timeframe and within a specified number of price bars before allowing the Autopilot to place an entry order.
For example, sometimes news events will radically move a market too far too fast, making it unwise to enter the market. Therefore this setting allows Track ‘n Trade to monitor the market for just such an event, and if the market price jumps radically higher or lower, and gives what I call a “long-bar,” and your chosen indicator then throws a buy
�PitNews.com Magazine August 2009
Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, stocks, and forex can be substantial. See Page 19 for more information.
or sell arrow at the top or bottom of that thrust bar, the Thrust Bar Regulator will keep the Autopilot from placing an order to enter the market.
The Track ‘n Trade’s Autopilot can then back-test any of these strategies against its historical database, and provide statistical analysis of performance. Statistically speaking, Track ‘n Trade has the ability of providing such things as number of trades and percentage that were winners vs. losers, you’ll find repeated wins, losses, and their calculated ratios. You’ll find biggest winning trades, biggest losing
trades, as well as a number of other statistical results based on your chosen settings. Of course, no historical statistics package would be complete without a graphics representation of your historical equity performance, and Track ‘n Trade provides a multi-dimensional view of just such information.
Along with a graphical representation of your historical trades, Track ‘n Trade also provides a list of each individual trade as they were hypothetically executed from the set-tings within the Autopilot. In this list, you’ll see each
Example of Autopilot showing historical statistics in graph form
trade, whether it was a buy or sell, the entry and exit times, the profit and loss, fees and balances. One of the best features of this window is the ability to double click on any single trade listed in the trades table, Track ‘n Trade will then automatically center that trade on the screen, and highlight the buy or sell signal that generated that trade. This is helpful in analyzing individual trades, to see what adjustments might be made to help our statistical performance.
As fantastic as the new Track ‘n Trade Autopilot is, I
would never recommend that anyone consider it as an excuse to circumvent the all important necessity of market education. In fact, education is key to your success, knowing and understanding what each component part of the Autopilot is doing, and why, is going to make you a much better and more successful trader.
This article is by no means a complete description of all the capabilities of the Track ‘n Trade Autopilot Plug-in, these are just a few of the great features found in within Track ‘n Trade, for more details, visit Track ‘n Trade online at: www.TrackNTrade.com
Example of Autopilot showing historical trade information for each trade
How weather affects daily lives is something that has fascinated individuals from various facets of our society for hundreds of years. From the clothes we wear on a
daily basis to major preparations made on behalf of the global agricultural industries, weather, and more specifically climatic impacting factors, are nothing to be ignored.
This cannot be stressed enough when refer-encing the global hurricane seasons which tend to wreak havoc on agriculture areas worldwide on an annual basis. The safety of our popula-tions and industries rely on the joint efforts of leading nations worldwide to share both information and knowledge of past and current climate and weather data. The U.S. Department of Commerce houses several facilities under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which produce and provide daily, monthly, and seasonal outlook forecasts of temperature and precipitation, just to name a few.
Although not limited to, several factors to weigh when considering the weather and/or climate in a given region would include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the current state of the Southern Oscillation (SO), and of course the annual ominous hurricane season.
The PDO is a decadal variability in climate that occurs roughly every 20-30 years. Affects of the PDO span the entire Pacific Ocean altering both wind patterns and sea surface temperatures. Although PDO forecasts have only gained notoriety as late as 1994, the current phase indicates negative anomalies or a “cold phase”, which exhibits warmer water temperatures in the Northern, Western, and Southern regions of the Pacific ocean, and cooler temperatures in the Eastern and Central Pacific ocean. Although the PDO can be considered a “large-scale” indicator of sea surface temperatures and wind patterns, modest time scales play just as an important role in global climate forecasting.
The Southern Oscillation, more commonly referred to as, El Niño/La Niña, has gained a stratospheric rise in pop culture as being the “bad guy” of weather phenomena. With careful plan-ning and government interactions, agricultural industries can very well profit from the devasta-tions of the SO by preparation. For instance, a forecasted drought in Brazil and Indonesia, both world leaders in coffee production, could allow for further investments in alternate crops.
on U.S. of Hurricanes
SeasonalImpacts
CommodityMarkets
By: Jordanna Sheermohamed, M.S. MeteorologyWeather and Climate Consultant for MB Wealth Corp.
tion worldwide might soon follow a shift to agree with what nature wants.
El Niño, although dynamically woven with several other factors tends to reverse upper level trade winds, essentially blowing the tops off the developing storms, before they can further develop. There are, on average, fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico during an El Niño event. This is not to say a hurricane can not make landfall. After all, this is forecast-ing, not fortune telling.
The following diagrams (Figure 1a, 1b), courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show the three-month (August, September, October) outlook of both precipitation and temperature for the continental United States. Figure 1a. indicates a forecast of above normal amounts of precipitation for Florida and the Central Plain states whereas a below noraml forecast is in place for the upper sections of the Pacific Northwest. The temperature diagram exhibits an above normal temperature forecast for the entire Southern part of the contingent U.S and the
�PitNews.com Magazine August 2009
Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, stocks, and forex can be substantial. See Page 3 for more information.
This would not only offset a potential loss for the drought-forecasted countries, but it would actually allow a profit to be made by alternate countries that might boost their own coffee production to meet current global demand. Current observations and computer model forecasts indicate that we have shifted out of a La Niña (cold phase) and into an El Niño (warm phase). Normal wind circulation patterns are disrupted and shifted eastward. The rain that would normally align itself in the western pacific over Indonesia and Australia shift eastward. The warmer waters in the eastern pacific that would normally shift westward as a result of strong trade winds now produce an above normal amount of rain along the western coasts of both Northern and Southern America. El Niño patterns are known to bring droughts to Indonesia, Brazil, East Africa, the extreme south of Africa, Southern India, and Australia, but increased precipitation to regions such as the gulf coast of the U.S. and Central Europe. As these conditions are expected to continue to intensify and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2009-2010, crop produc-
Figure 1(a)(b): 3 month precipitation (a) and temperature (b) forecast for the continental U.S.
9PitNews.com Magazine August �009
Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, stocks, and forex can be substantial. See Page 3 for more information.
extreme Northeast. Below normal temepratures are fore-casted for Midwest states just west of the Great Lakes. A careful examination of three gulf region crops (orange juice,
natural gas, and cotton) show that all three commodities are in favor of production, with regards to the climatic condi-tions predicted for the Fall season as seen in Table 1a.
Table 1a. Three Gulf Coast commodities’ desired weather factors are almost harmonious with temperature and precipitation predictions for the fall �009 season.
This Month’s Off the Wall Chart comes from Mr.O (Bob):
Pulled off the wall From:The Pitnews.com ForumsVisit The Wall at:Forums at: http://thewall.pitnews.com
The Wall is PitNews.com’s trading forum, found on the web at http://thewall.pitnews.com or from the tab link on the front page of PitNews.com. Each month, we highlight a chart submitted by one of our users.
Get into the action! Start posting on
The Wall, and maybe you’ll see your
article or chart highlighted here in our
next issue of PitNews.com Magazine!
http://thewall.pitnews.com
Using Fibonacci calculations, Mr.O from The Wall examines the sugar market.
I have been away also and just up graded to TNT 5.0.Sugar has been trending up and retracing in the 38% and 50%
zones. Pricesuggests a Intermediate Swing Target 19.23(Price has reached the projected Fib. 76% level already) The Minor swing target of 18.35. Price has exceeded the minor high and formed a Doji at 18.57 this suggest that a minor retracement to follow.
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DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. SPECULATIVE VEHICLES SUCH AS FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREX MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVEST-MENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDI-TION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES POSITION.
SEASONAL DISCLAIMER: SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MOST CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEA-SONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST 15 YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING, FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN SIMI-LAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR YEAR. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST, OR WILL IN THE FUTURE, ACHIEVE PROFITS USING THESE RECOMMENDATIONS. NO REP-RESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE: RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTA-TION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PER-FORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRAD-ING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FAC-TORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFOR-MANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.