© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

In the Pipeline – and Not in the PipelineInfrastructure in an Era of Uncertainty

In the Pipeline – and Not in the PipelineInfrastructure in an Era of Uncertainty

David BrazielRBN Energy LLC

September 10, 2020

2© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

Natural GasCrude Oil

NGLs

Crude, Gas and NGL Price Eras

PRE‐SHALE

SHALE GAS

WET GAS

SHALE OIL

AGE OF EXPORTS

MARKET COOLS UNCERTAINTY

‐37.63$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$/bb

l

3© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

MMb/d

U.S. Crude Oil Production

AppalachiaPermianHaynesvilleNiobraraEagle FordBakkenAnadarkoConventional

Source: EIA DPR

Shale Plays Versus ConventionalShale Plays Versus Conventional

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Bcf/d

U.S. Gross Gas Production

4© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

U.S. Onshore Rig Counts and Prices

Source: Baker Hughes; CME/ Nymex

‐$5

$5

$15

$25

$35

$45

$55

$65

$75

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

$/Bb

l

Rigs

Oil Rigs by Basin

 Other  Permian  Eagle Ford  Anadarko

 Bakken  Niobrara  WTI *

*3 Months Trailing

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

$/MMbtu

Rigs

Gas Rigs by Basin

 Other  Marcellus  Utica  Haynesville

 Eagle Ford  Green River  HH *

5© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast Scenarios

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14MMb/d

2012‐2019 2020‐2025 High 2020‐2025 Mid 2020‐2025 Low

13.3

10.6

8.0

Source: RBN Forecast ‐ Unconstrained

WTI Cushing $/Bbl

Henry Hub 

$/MMbtu

High $55 $3.00

Mid $45 $2.50

Low $35 $2.00

‐650 Mb/d/y

410 Mb/d/y

» RBN producer economics and production forecasts are based on these three price Scenarios: Low, Mid, and High

» These are not forecasts, nor are they likely market highs or lows

» They are possible scenarios used to understand market responses

6© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

MMb/d

Permian Crude

Permian Oil Oil w/o Shut In

Natural Declines Overtake Curtailments

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

Bcf/d

Permian Gas

Permian Gas Gas w/o Shut In

Source: RBN Permian Reports

7© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

Crude Oil Production by Basin

Bakken

Eagle Ford

Permian

Anadarko

Niobrara

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

Prod

uctio

n (M

b/d)

Bakken

0100200300400500600700800

Prod

uctio

n (M

b/d)

Niobrara

050

100150200250300350400450500

Prod

uctio

n (M

b/d)

STACK/SCOOP and Other Anadarko

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Prod

uctio

n (M

b/d)

Permian

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

Prod

uctio

n (M

b/d)

Eagle Ford

Source: RBN Forecast ‐ Unconstrained

LowHigh Mid

8© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

Midwest Crude Pipeline UpdatesMidwest Crude Pipeline UpdatesEdmonton, AB

Hardisty, AB

Superior, WI

Patoka, IL

Cushing, OK

Enbridge‐Line 3 Replacement(+350) 760 Mb/d late 2020/1H2021

TC Energy‐Keystone XL830 Mb/d 2023

P66/Bridger‐ Liberty350 Mb/d  1Q 2021

Energy Transfer‐ DAPL570 Mb/d

Guernsey, WY

(Patoka)(Patoka)(Platteville)(Platteville) (Guernsey)(Guernsey) (Steele City)(Steele City) (Flanagan)(Flanagan)

Cushing

Crane

Midland

McCamey

Corpus Christi

Freeport

Houston Beaumont

Lake Charles

St. James

Orla

Colorado City

Wichita Falls

Wink

Baton Rouge

(Patoka)(Patoka)(Platteville)(Platteville) (Guernsey)(Guernsey) (Steele City)(Steele City) (Flanagan)(Flanagan)

Cushing

Crane

Midland

McCamey

Corpus Christi

Freeport

Houston Beaumont

Lake Charles

St. James

Orla

Colorado City

Wichita Falls

Wink

Baton Rouge

Orla Wink

Crane

Midland

Three Rivers

Corpus Christi

HoustonCactus II

Gray Oak

Midland‐to‐ECHO III

Wink‐to‐Webster

EPIC Crude

TX

NMLA

New and Planned Permian Crude Oil Pipelines

Cactus IIEPIC CrudeGray OakMidland‐to‐ECHO IIIWink‐to‐Webster

Gulf of Mexico

12© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

MMb/d

Actual

Forecast

Pipeline & Refinery TakeawayCapacityNov‐19 Forecast

Permian Oil Production and Takeaway

13© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

Lower 48 U.S. Natural Gas Production Forecast Scenarios

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

bcf/d

2012‐2019 2020‐2025 High 2020‐2025 Mid 2020‐2025 Low

110

91

73

Source: RBN Forecast ‐ Unconstrained

‐3.1 bcf/d/y

4.3 bcf/d/y

Orla Wink

Crane

Midland

Three Rivers

Corpus Christi

Houston

Gulf Coast Express Permian Highway

Whistler

TX

NMLA

New and Planned Permian Natural Gas Pipelines

Gulf Coast ExpressPermian HighwayWhistler

Gulf of Mexico

15© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Bcf/d

Local DemandProduction ForecastEffective TakeawayPrior Forecast (Nov‐19 )

GCX to Agua Dulce in 4Q19

Whistler in 3Q21

PHP in 1Q21

Permian Dry Gas Production and Takeaway

16© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

LNG Feedgas by Terminal

Source: Genscape; RBN LNG Voyager

Cove Point

Elba Island

Corpus Christi

Freeport

Sabine Pass Cameron

Golden PassCalcasieu Pass0.0

1.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.0

Bcf/d

Pipeline Deliveries by LNG Terminal

Sabine Pass Cove Point Corpus ChristiCameron Freeport Elba

17© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

An Era of Uncertainty

Qua

ntity

 (MMb/d)

Price ($/bbl)

© Copyright 2020 RBN Energy

David BrazielPresident, RBN Energy

2323 South Shepherd, Suite 1010Houston, TX, 77019

dbraziel@rbnenergy.com

http://www.rbnenergy.com/daily‐energy‐post