in focus: black friday 2019...black friday, the us-imported promotional event that landed in the uk...

In Focus:

Black Friday 2019: will shoppers come out and will they buy fashion?

TheIndustry.fashion | @theindustryfashion | @theindustryfash | @theindustryfashion | @theindustryfashion In Focus – Black Friday 2019: will shoppers come out and will they buy fashion? | 2

The Introduction

Black Friday, the US-imported promotional event that landed

in the UK in 2010 thanks largely to Amazon, has become one

of the most crucial trading periods in the UK retail trading

calendar, fast eclipsing the traditional Boxing Day and

January sales.

But how it will fare in what has been one of the toughest years

for retail in living memory? Retailers might just as well stick a

finger in the air and make a prediction because the evidence

thus far from industry watchers has been far from conclusive.

IMRG, which in partnership with Capgemini, tracks online retail

sales has said this year’s Black Friday is likely to be up slightly

year-on-year but could even be flat, which is not what retailers

want to hear. IMRG said earlier this month that it anticipated

online sales growth of just +2-3% for the Black Friday period –

the lowest forecast ever put out for a major online sales event

– “with a very real possibility it could be flat.”

However just as the promotional period started to get underway this week (the big event really is this Friday 29 November, followed by Cyber Monday on 2 December), the CBI

revealed figures which suggested that the punishing retail downturn was beginning to stabilise.

CBI’s monthly survey of British retailers has found that sales

were “broadly unchanged” in November, after six months of

falling demand. However, the industry was still in decline, with

41% of retailers reporting a decline in sales while 38% of

respondents saw a rise, giving a balance of -3 for the month

against the same period last year.

On top of which any top-line growth is likely to have been

driven by heavy discounting already this season. So will more

discounting really drive demand or has the customer become immune to it? With the help of a leading consumer research

agency, we survey a nationally representative section of

British fashion shoppers to find out.

With Brexit unresolved and a General Election slap bang in the run-up to Christmas, retailers are going to need every tool at their disposal to convince cautious shoppers to spend in the lead up to Christmas.


Section 1: Just how discount-driven is today’s fashion shopper?

When asked how driven they were by discounting when

shopping for fashion, some 62% said they were more likely to buy if there were a sale on. Interestingly that

figure is fairly consistent across all age groups with

discounts only being marginally less attractive as a

customer gets older. What may be encouraging for

retailers hoping to improve full-price sell-through is that

only 10% of consumers say they will only buy a product if it is discounted and approaching 30% say discounts have

little or no effect over their fashion purchases.

Discounting is a drug. Retailers have become dependent on it to driven demand, particularly in a market that is doing them no favours, and the customer knows that. They too seem increasingly in need of a discount to encourage them to part with their cash, particularly in a market that is doing them no favours either.

10%

62%

19%

9%

ONLY BUY IF I HAVE A DISCOUNTCODE/THERE IS A SALE ON

I AM MORE LIKELY TO BUY IF I HAVE ADISCOUNT CODE/THERE IS A SALE ON

SALES/DISCOUNTS HAVE LITTLE AFFECTOVER WHEN OR WHAT I BUY

SALES/DISCOUNTS HAVE NO AFFECTOVER WHEN OR WHAT I BUY

Survey question: When shopping for fashion,

which of the following best describes your behaviour?


The younger consumer is far more likely to buy fashion

during the Black Friday period with 41% of 25-34 year olds

saying they typically purchase fashion during this period,

with a similar number (39%) saying they buy personal

technology, making it fashion’s biggest competitor for

share of spend among young consumers.

Christmas gifts and toys 34%

Personal technology 27%

Fashion, footwear & accessories 27%

Home electricals & white goods 27%

Beauty, fragrance & health care 19%

Home furnishings 13%

None of the above 35%

Section 2: Does Black Friday typically bring out the fashion shopper?

But what of Black Friday? Does it draw out the fashion shopper? When the promotional event first arrived in the UK, it was more about electricals, with scenes of shoppers resorting to fights in Asda over cut-price

TVs making the national news. But as the event gained more traction, it sucked in other categories and fashion is no exception. According to our findings, some 27% of shoppers typically buy fashion in the Black Friday sales, placing the category alongside personal technology and home electricals & white goods in terms of popularity. Only Christmas gifts and toys performs better (see table below).


When it comes to fashion the most robust age-group when

it comes to intended fashion spend is Gen Z (16-24 year

olds). Some 40% of this group say they will buy fashion

this year versus 31% of Millennials (25-34 year olds) with

35-44 year-olds coming in at 27% and 45-54 year olds at

17%. Over 55s coming in at 12%. Again with the younger

consumers (both Gen Z and Millennials), personal tech is

likely to be the biggest competitor for share of spend.

Section 3: How about this year? Will the fashion shopper come out?

When compared with what people typically buy during Black Friday and what they intend to buy this year, all categories – bar one – are down, which could be a somewhat worrying sign. Christmas gifts & toys remain key with 35% intending to buy them. Personal technology slips from 27% to 24% and fashion slips from 27% to 23% against typical spend. Home electricals & white goods drop from 27% to 20%, which chimes with other reports that consumers are deferring big ticket purchases until we have some clarity on Brexit and understand the outcome of the General Election.

Christmas gifts and toys 35%

Personal technology 24%

Fashion, footwear & accessories 23%

Home electricals & white goods 20%

Beauty, fragrance & health care 18%

Home furnishings 11%

None of the above 34%


Section 4: Can Black Friday help brands acquire new customers?

Overall consumers, unsurprisingly, are far more likely to

buy from brands they know during Black Friday with a

third saying they will only shop with brands they already

know and trust. A further third are prepared to buy from

a mix of new and trusted brands, with 20% saying they

use Black Friday as an opportunity to try out new brands.

Younger consumers are more likely to use Black Friday

as an opportunity to try a new brand (25% of Gen Z

and 25% of Millennials), which would be good news for

Zalando and other young fashion operators looking to

secure more active customers.

An interesting question for fashion retailers to contemplate during Black Friday is whether they should spend time encouraging new shoppers to spend with them (i.e. use it as an acquisition drive – see Zalando case study) or stick to trying to persuade existing customers to spend more. The latter is certainly easier to do.

Survey question:

When buying fashion during Black Friday, do you…?

ONLY BUY FROM BRANDS YOU ALREADYKNOW AND TRUST

TRY OUT NEW BRANDS YOU HAVE NEVERBOUGHT FROM BEFORE

BUY FROM BOTH TRUSTED AND NEW BRANDS

BUY FROM ANY BRAND THAT HAS AN ITEMYOU LIKE AS YOU HAVE NO LOYALTY TOA PARTICULAR BRAND

33%

20%

33%

14%


Section 4: Can Black Friday help brands acquire new customers? continued

Case study: Zalando

Zalando has said it intends to use this “Cyber Week” to drive

customer acquisition and Gross Merchandise Value (GMV)

by offering deep discounts of up to 70%.

The German-based global giant, which has more than 29

million active customers, will carry out flash sales in different

categories, leading up to over 200,000 articles discounted

across the entire assortment on Black Friday.

As part of the Zalando platform, the curated shopping

service Zalon and shopping club Zalando Lounge will

also participate in Cyber Week with their own offers and

dedicated campaigns.

Moritz Hahn, Senior Vice President of Commercial Business

for the Zalando Fashion store, says: “Cyber Week has

become a strategically important GMV and customer

acquisition driver. This was once again proven by last year’s

results, with over 4,200 orders per minute at peak times

during Black Friday alone, sales exceeded our already high

expectations by far.

This year, we will further leverage the entire Cyber Week

to both reach our ambitious growth targets and assure

customers during the busiest sales event of the year, that

Zalando is their Starting Point for Fashion.”

Customers who are interested in Zalando Plus

membership will have the opportunity to subscribe

for a discounted price of €9.90 instead of €15. With

this, Zalando aims to further grow the number

of Plus members. In addition, Zalando Plus

members will get additional discounts of 10%.

Following the recently announced

sustainability strategy, do.MORE, Zalando

has committed to being carbon-neutral

in its own operations, and all deliveries

and returns, also during Cyber Week.

Customers can make use of the recently

launched offset feature in the check-

out process to contribute to a climate

neutral order.

Moritz Hahn,

Senior Vice President of Commercial Business


Section 5: Online or offline, where will this year’s Black Friday shopper be?

Interestingly stores are most popular with Gen Z,

at 32%, and the over 65s at 40%, which should provide

some cheer for those worried about the future pulling

power of the physical retail space.

The popularity of online shopping is on the one hand

a good thing, but one the other when it comes to e-commerce something of a twist on Newton’s Law of Gravity comes into play – i.e. what goes out must come back, or at least a fair old chunk of it will.

But does the drug of a discount lure the shopper in during

Black Friday and when the high has worn off, are they more likely to return that purchase? Our survey says not

necessarily; some 57% of consumers say that buying

during Black Friday has no bearing on whether they return

an item or not with a further 27% saying they are less likely

to return it. Only 13% say they are more likely to return

with the balance made up of don’t knows.

It would also appear that buying something on discount

during Black Friday doesn’t make a consumer value it any

less. For almost two thirds of consumers (61%) it makes no

difference at all with 23% saying they value it more.

Overwhelmingly those who intend to buy fashion during this year’s Black Friday period will be doing it online with 39% saying the prefer to buy online via mobile, 37% saying they prefer to do it online via laptop and 24% saying they prefer to go in-store.

Survey question: Does buying something on discount during

Black Friday affect the way you value an item?

BUYING SOMETHING ON DISCOUNT DURINGBLACK FRIDAY MAKES ME VALUE IT MORE

BUYING SOMETHING ON DISCOUNT DURINGBLACK FRIDAY MAKES ME VALUE IT LESS

IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCETO HOW I VALUE AN ITEM

DON’T KNOW

23%

11%

61%

5%


Section 6: So what will take to get the fashion shopper to spend more during Black Friday?

So, getting the discount level right during Black Friday is

crucial. And here’s the bad news, though ASOS knows it

already. If you’re going to get customers to part with cash

they didn’t otherwise intend to then you are going to have

to go deep with the discounts. Only 7% of respondents said

a 20% discount would be sufficient to get them spending

with a huge 46% expecting 50% off.

When it comes to what the customer intends to buy during

Black Friday, many of them (43%) say they will browse the

sales and buy something only if they like it, however many

do wait for Black Friday before starting their Christmas

shopping (32%) with 31% waiting to buy an investment item

such as an overcoat or a designer bag. A further 30% say

they now wait for Black Friday to stock up on their winter

wardrobe and with autumns seemingly getting warmer, it’s

often the end of November before the customer really feels

they need heavy duty knitwear and outerwear.

Anyone who has been following the fate of online fashion giant ASOS over the past year or so will remember only too well that this time last year the company thought it could get away with a measly 20% off across everything for Black Friday. But its customers told it otherwise. A below-par Black Friday coupled with operational pain from the introduction of new warehousing in Germany and the US led to a shock profit warning at the end of last year and its share price tanking by 42%, in fact it was so bad even some its rivals’ shares took a hit too.

Survey question: What level of discount during Black Friday

is likely to encourage you to spend on fashion that you

otherwise may not have bought?

UP TO 20%

UP TO 30%

UP TO 40%

UP TO 50% OR MORE

DON'T KNOW

7%

22%

20%

46%

6%


Section 7: If I participate in Black Friday, will it devalue my brand?

The challenge for retailers is that they don’t end up on permanent sale; with some staging mid-season

promotions, Black Friday sales and pre- and post-

Christmas sales, you can run the risk of being on sale from

October to January.

There are Black Friday refuseniks in the market (typically

more independent brands) and that’s fair enough. If

you are not a discount-driven brand and have a loyal

customer base then it would be potentially dangerous to

jeopardise that by jumping on the band wagon. If you are in the mainstream or close to it however, it’s hard to watch the shopper go elsewhere at this crucial trading

time. Even stoic anti-discounter Next has dipped its toe in Black Friday, while Jigsaw and COS, who had previously

refused to take part, are doing so this year.

What customers don’t seem to love is random discounting

(only 22% like ad hoc discounting), so with Black Friday

established in the calendar there seems to be no shame

in retailers taking part.

In a word no. If anything, judging by what our consumers say, it could be brand enhancing. Given that Black Friday is still a relatively new arrival on the UK retail scene, it’s understandable that some retailers have been reluctant to participate while others hoped that it was a passing fad. Given the global nature of retail now, that hope was in vain. Black Friday is here and it seems set to stay.

Survey question: When it comes to your attitudes to

Black Friday/sales in general, which of the following

best sums up your feelings.

12%

17%

22%

38%

58%

I WOULD PREFER BRANDS DIDN’T DISCOUNTBUT OFFER FAIRER PRICES ALL YEAR

IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE TO ME IF BRANDSDON’T OFFER DISCOUNTS DURING BLACK FRIDAY

I LIKE IT WHEN BRANDS OFFER SALES AT ADHOC/SURPRISE POINTS DURING THE YEAR

I LIKE IT WHEN BRANDS OFFER SALESAT DEFINED POINTS DURING THE YEAR

(E.G. SUMMER, BLACK FRIDAY, NEW YEAR)

I LIKE IT WHEN BRANDS OFFER DISCOUNTS DURING BLACK FRIDAY


For more information contact: Antony Hawman, Chief Partnerships Officer [email protected] T: 020 3912 0001

About The Survey

Savanta surveyed 2,000 British consumers during October 2019 across a

range of age groups, regions and socio-economic groups with a gender

split of 51% women and 49% men.

TheIndustry.fashion produces regular consumer research studies

(visit The Intelligence section of our website to see more) and

can also carry out bespoke research projects.

in focus: black friday 2019...black friday, the us-imported promotional event that landed in the uk...

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