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FINAL REPORT

Commerce

Development &

Environment

P r i v a t e

L i m i t e d

IN-DEPTH TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT ON

TRANSPORT SECTORMINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER

SEPTEMBER 2007

Submitted by:

Author: AHMED ADHAM ABDULLA, MSc

IN-DEPTH TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT ON TRANSPORT SECTOR

MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER II

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that

due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) attributed to

human activity, the global mean temperature could increase between 1.4 and

5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 and the sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to

0.88 meter between 1990 and 2100. The focus of international community is

tended on technology based strategies, options or solutions for reducing

anthropogenic GHG emissions to foster human or natural systems to respond

to the indeed already occurring and future global warming consequences.

Maldives is very vulnerable to the associated impacts of climate change,

including sea level rise. The very existence of Maldives is questionable as half

of the country will submerge by 2100 as Maldives has 1 meter at maximum

height, should the projection of IPCC becomes a inconvenient reality. The

current uni-modal transport system in Maldives has evolved in an ad hoc

manner without a comprehensive plan, in which a systematic public transport

is practically non-existent (both in capital city Malé and in Atolls). As a result

GHG emissions have increased and are forecasted to steeply escalate due to

heavy usage of private owned cars and motorbikes, high demand and

consumption of fossil fuels, and traffic congestions.

This In-depth Technology Needs Assessment (In-depth TNA) of transport

sector is in line with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC), Kyoto Protocol and current government regulations in

pertinent areas. The assessment seeks to elucidate the available technology

based sustainable mitigation and adaptation options for the Maldives in order

to diminish GHG emissions and the adverse effects to climatic conditions for

Maldives (and for the Earth in general) from land and transport sectors


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER III

(excluding air transportation), despite the numerous barriers and hindrances

to technology transfer in the Maldives .

The hard and soft technology-based options (underpinned by

comprehensive local and international literature review, internet based

research, and by qualifiable and quantifiable data attained from focus group

discussions and awareness raising campaigns) are recommended based on

key aspects of road transport in Malé and Atolls, Inter-Island Sea Transport,

International Shipping, Seaports, relevance on Air Pollution and Climate

change to transport sector, environmental cost of air pollution, measurement

of GHG transport based inventory, consumption needs of fossil fuel energy

(which Maldives is an importer of), cost of transport, and history and forecast

of GHG emissions.

Hard and soft technology based GHG mitigation options include traffic

management techniques to limit vehicle and vessel fleet such as to promote an

integrated public transport system (for both land and maritime transport),

priority measures, fiscal restraints, traffic management information

technology, market based options for carbon credit point trading.

Furthermore, mitigation options include actions to reduce vehicle emissions

techniques such as to promote use of emissions catalyst neutralizers, testing

devices of gross polluters, natural barriers, alternative fuel configurations for

vehicles (AFVs), alternative lean burn engine configurations for vehicles,

efficient vehicle technology to promote green travel plans, low emission zones,

NOx reduction measures for maritime transport, water injection and water

emulsion, and promote low sulphur distillate fuels for maritime transport.

Hard and soft technology based options to adapt to the mitigations

technologies include actions to reduce travel such as promote public

awareness, demand-side management, institutional strengthening and

capacity building, land-use planning and traffic management schemes, and

promote support of government of Maldives through policies, strategies,

regulations, standards and enforcement initiates.


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER IV

TABLE OF CONTENTS IV Executive Summary II Table of Contents IV Abbreviations and Acronyms VIII List of Figures and Tables X CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY………………….…. 1 1. 1 Introduction and Subject of Enquiry…………………………………….…….… 1 1.2 Methodology for In-Depth TNA: Participatory and Consultative Approach……. 5 CHAPTER TWO CHARACTERISTICS OF MALDIVES: IT’S DEPENDENCY ON TRANSPORT SECTOR………………….. 7 2.1 Characteristics of Maldives……………………………………………………… 7 2.2 Transportation Sector of Maldives……………………………………………… 11

2.2.1 Evolution and Growth of Transport Sector: Past, Present and Future. 2.2.2 Transport Sector and Energy Needs: Relevance and Implication

2.3 Road Transport in Malé………………………………………………………… 13 2.3.1 Pedestrians 2.3.2 Parking 2.3.3 Traffic Management 2.3.4 Vehicle Ownership

2.4 Road Transport in the Atolls………………………………………………….… 18 2.5 Inter-Island sea Transport……………………………………………………….18 2.6 International Shipping and Seaports…………………………………………….. 20 CHAPTER THREE TRANSPORT SECTOR AND CLIMATE CHANGE: TECHNICAL EVALUATION………………………………………. 21 3.1 Air Pollution and Climate Change: A General Overview……………………... 21 3.2 Climate Change and Air Pollution: Transport Perspective…………………….. 23 3.3 Environmental Costs of Air Pollution: A Brief Highlight……………………... 24 3.4 Energy Consumption of Transport Sector……………………………………… 25

3.4.1 Net Consumption of Diesel / Marine Gas Oil 3.4.2 Net Consumption of Petrol / Gasoline

3.5 Measurement of GHG Emission from Land and Maritime Transport ……….....27 3.6 History and Forecasted GHG Emissions (1994-2011) ……………………….... .31


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER V

CHAPTER FOUR HARD AND SOFT TECHNOLOGY-BASED OPTIONS FOR REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT SECTOR……………………….…………….. 32 4.1 Analytical Hierarchy Model: Transport Initiatives to Improve Air Quality……. 32 4.2 Traffic Demand Management Techniques……………………………………….34

4.2.1 Promote Options for Public Transport, Priority Measures and Integrated Transport Systems………………………………………………...34

- Integrated Public Mini Bus Services for Malé, Hulhumalé, Addu Atoll, Laamu Atoll, Fuahmulah and Kulhudhufushi road network - Integrated Ferry Transport System for Male Urban Region

4.2.2 Promote Options for Fiscal Restraints …………………………...……39 - Fuel Taxes - Port Dues Differentiation - Other In-Use Fees

4.2.3 Promote Options for Traffic Management Information Technology ….40 - Electronic Congestion and Toll Collection System

4.2.4 Promote Market Based Options for Carbon Credit Point Trading …….41 - The Stringent Credit-Based Approach - The Consortia Benchmarking Approach

4.3 Actions to Reduce Vehicle and Vessel Emissions ……………………………....43 4.3.1 Promote Option for Use of Emissions Neutralizers, Testing Devices of “Gross Polluters”, and Natural Barriers………………....43

- Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) Converters -Emissions Testing, Sensing and Screening Devices - Prevent Pollutants Dissipation through Natural Barriers

4.3.2 Promote Use of Alternative Fuel Configurations for Vehicles (Afvs).44 - Ethanol -Bio Diesel - Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) -Propane - Electricity - Hydrogen - Methanol - P-Series Fuel - Fuel Cells

4.3.3 Promote use of Alternative Lean Burn Engine Configurations for Vehicles………………………………………………………………………50

- Gasoline Direct Injection - Sequential Spark Ignition - Variable Valve Timing and Lift - Cylinder Deactivation - Variable Displacement - Variable Compression Ratios - Idle Stop - Advanced Transmissions - Supercharging and Turbo-charging

4.3.4 Use of Energy Efficient Vehicles Technology to Promote Green Travel Plans and Low Emission Zones ……………………….……...53


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER VI

- Battery Electric-drive Vehicles (BEVs) - Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) - Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs). - Direct-injection lean-burn diesel engines - Mini-cars

4.3.5 Promote use of Alternative Fuel and Engine Configurations in Maritime Transport………………………………………………...……..58

- Nox Reduction measures from maritime transport - Water injection and water emulsion. - Humid Air Motor (HAM) -Lower Sulphur distillate fuels

CHAPTER FIVE ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF HARD AND SOFT GHG MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES…………………………………………………………..62 5.1 Promote Public Awareness………………………………………………………62 5.2 Promote Demand-Side Management ……………………………………………63

- Telecommuting to work 5.3 Promote Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building …………………....64 5.4 Promote Private Sector Participation…………………………………………… 64 5.5 Promote Land-Use Planning and Traffic Management Schemes………………..65

- Pedestrian friendly roads 5.6 Promote Support of Government of Maldives through Policies, Strategies, Regulations, Standards and Enforcement Initiatives…………………………………68

5.6.1 National Policies for Land and Maritime Sector. ……………………...68 - 7th National Developments Plan (7th NDP, 2006-2010) - The Domestic Transport Act Of 1978 - Tourism Master Plan (2003) - Strategic Economic Plan (2005) - National Energy Policy (2006), Kyoto Protocol (ratified it in 1998) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). - Science and technology Master plan (2001) - National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA - 2006), - ICT Policy Formulation Project - Telecommunications Policy 2001 - 2005 - Health master plan (1996)

5.6.2 International Policies Specific to Maritime Sector……………………..75 - The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea - The International Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution from Ships MARPOL 73/78 - IMO’ resolution A.963 (23)

5.6.4 Policy Options for Government of Maldives………………………….78 - Policy on GHG emission indices and standards - Policy on Vehicle Demand Management, fleet restriction, alternative fuel and Public Transport - Policy on fiscal restraints and import duty of vehicles.


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER VII

-Other Policy Support options ………………………………………82 Public Awareness campaigns Institutional strengthening and capacity building Private Sector Participation Fuel quality testing mechanisms Policy on data collection and maintenance Urban Land-use planning, re-engineer road network, limit over

load of vehicles, re-arrange traffic lights and speed breaks Policy on Hybrid cars and battery electric cars Policy on Fuel economy

5.7 Measures to Promote Fuel-Efficient Vehicles around the World ………………84 5.8 Milestones Targets ………………………………………………………………85

-Milestone target for 2015 -Milestone target for 2020

5.9 Barriers to Technology Transfer ………………………………………………...86

CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ………..………...87 6.1 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………..87 6.2 Recommendations………………………………………………………………..88 6.3 Recommendations for Further Research…………………………………………91 LIST OF REFERENCES ANNEX I – MAP OF MALDIVES ANNEX II - PROJECT PROFILE ONE

PUBLIC AWARENESS CAMPAIGNS - Background and goal - Project rationale and objectives: - Expected activities, output and outcomes: - Financing mechanism

ANNEX III - PROJECT PROFILE TWO

INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING BY CAPACITY BUILDING - Background and goal - Objectives and outcomes - Financing mechanism

ANNEX IV - PROJECT PROFILE THREE

DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINABLE INTER-ISLAND SEA BASED MASS TRANSPORT TION SYSTEM

- Background and goals - Project rationale and objectives: - Planned activities and outcomes: - Financing Mechanism


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER VIII

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ALS Area Licensing Scheme

BRT Bus rapid transit

CNG Compressed Natural Gas

CO Carbon monoxide

CO2 Carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas)

CAI-Maldives Clean Air Initiative for Maldives

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

DMC Developing Member Country

DFO Diesel Fuel Oil

DPF Diesel particle filter

EEI Energy Efficiency Initiative

EU European Union

GNI Gross National Income

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Greenhouse gases (gases which contribute to climate

change effects)

GPS Global Positioning System

HC Hydrocarbons

HOV High Occupancy Vehicle

IMO International Maritime Organisation

ICE Internal Combustion Engine

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change

LNG Liquefied natural gas

LPG Liquefied Petroleum gas

NMT Non-motorized transport

NO Nitric oxide

NO2 Nitrogen oxide

NOx Oxides of Nitrogen

PM Particulate Matter

SO2 Sulphur dioxide

SOx oxides of sulphur


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER IX

SCR Selective catalytic reduction

TDM Traffic demand management

TOE Ton oil equivalent

UN United Nations

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change

Units

mg Micrograms (106 grams)

g/km Grams per Kilometer

g/l Grams per Liter

kg Kilogram

km Kilometer

kph Kilometers per hour


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER X

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Summary of Chapters in In-depth Technology Needs Assessment

Table 3.2 Externalities of Air Pollution

Table 4.2: Diesel / Marine Gas Oil Consumption

Table 3.3: Petrol/ Gasoline Imports and Export

Table 4.1: GHG Emission from Different Transport Modes

Table 4.2: Quality Service Standards for Mini Buses of Male’

Table 4.2: Summary of Alternative Vehicle Technology and Fuel Options

Table 5.1: Registration Age Restriction

Table 5.2: Measures To Promote Fuel-Efficient Vehicles around the World

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Research Superstructure

Figure1.2: Methodical Flow Chart of In-Depth TNA Study

Figure 2.1: Projected Mid Year Population of Maldives 2005-2010

Figure 2.2: Percentage Share of GDP by Kind of Activity 2005

Figure 2.3: Transport Sector’s Share for Gross Domestic Product 1995-2005

Figure 2.4: Gross Domestic Product, Growth Rates of Transport Sector, in Percentage

at 2005 Constant Price

Figure 2.5: Consumer Price Index, Percentage Change over Previous Years

Figure 2.6: Growth of Vehicle Fleet, Population and Income in Male’ 1995-2021

Figure 2.7: Vehicle Spilt Male 2006

Figure 2.8: Trip Purpose for Vehicle Use

Figure 2.9: Vehicle Ownership Rate (Per 1000 Persons)

Figure 2.10: Annual Growth Rate of Vehicle Registrations

Figure 2.11; Vessel According to Registration by Locality

Figure 2.12: Maritime Vessels use by Locality, 2005

Figure 2.13: Cargo Throughput by Sea 2002-2005

Figure 3.1: Variations in the Surface Temperature of the Last 140 Years

Figure 3.2: Total Final Energy Consumption by Energy Carriers, 2002

Figure3.3 Overview of Energy Consumption in Transport Sector, 2002


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER XI

Figure 3.4: Import of Diesel

Figure 3.5: History and Forecasted GHG Emissions (1994-2011)

Figure 4.1: Analytical Hierarchy Model

Figure 4.2: Suggested Size and Seating Arrangement of Mini Buses

Figure 4.3: Proposed Ferry Network in Male’ Urban Region

Figure 4.4: Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Figure 5.1: Road Structure as Recommended By MTC

Figure 5.2: Pedestrian Friendly Roads

Figure 5.3: Support of Intervention Proposal

Annex I – Map of Maldives

LIST OF EQUATIONS FOR CALCULATIONS Total Final Energy Consumption for 2002 = 147,721 Toe

Final Energy Consumption in Transport, 2002 = 45,738 Toe

Net Consumption = Imports – Re-exports

Net fuel energy share = Net burnt exhaust (as Fuel stock in Maldives is less than for 3

months)


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER 1 of 112

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

1. 1 INTRODUCTION AND SUBJECT OF ENQUIRY

It is a consensus of global community that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse

gases (GHG) to atmosphere are upsetting the thermal balance of the planet and

contributing to a global warming trend. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) states that the global mean temperature could increase by between 1.4

and 5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, the sea level is projected to rise from 0.09 meter to

0.88 meter between 1990 and 2100. Furthermore there is compelling evidence that

most warming observed in the last 50 years can be attributed to human activity.

In the international and regional policy arena, scientists and policymakers around

have acknowledged that global climate change is likely to disturb regional weather

patterns and that these changes, although difficult to predict with any certainty, pose

challenges and risks to human and natural systems. Therefore their attention has

tended to focus on technology based strategies, options or solutions for reducing

anthropogenic GHG emissions to foster human or natural systems to respond to the

indeed already occurring and future global warming consequences.

Adaptive strategies, options or measures are also important precisely because, given

the 100-year residence time of carbon dioxide (which is the main component in

GHGs) in the atmosphere, climate effects from past, current, and future GHG can be

expected to continue for many years at least through the 21st century and probably

beyond (regardless of the success of near-term emissions reduction efforts).

Adaptation measures (both feasible and implement able) can substantially reduce the

potential for damage, while increasing the likelihood that some regions, communities,



or individual entities may even be able to take advantage of financial opportunities

created by climate change.

Maldives is among the most vulnerable and least defensible countries to the projected

impacts of the global problem of climate change, including sea level rise. In fact the

very existence of Maldives is questionable as half of the country will submerge by

2100 according to the 0.88 meter sea level rise projection of IPCC stated above, as

Maldives has 1 meter at maximum height. By successful adaptation of technology-

based mitigation solutions to curb GHG and enhance carbon sequestration, Maldives

shall reduce its vulnerability and enhance its resilience to climate variability,

preferably in ways that contributes to sustainable development of the country.

In the quest to mitigate effects of climate change, Maldives was the first country to

sign the Kyoto Protocol and ratify it in 1998. The country is also a party to the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As a non-Annex I

party to the UNFCCC, the Maldives is not obliged to implement GHG measures, but

the current national environmental policies are based on the need to take an integrated

approach to environmental management and to work towards the goal of sustainable

development.

Maldives is heavily dependent on transport sector, which is a main contributor to air

pollution and GHG is emitted as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion in transport

vehicles and vessels. This In-depth Technology Needs Assessment (In-depth TNA) of

transport sector seeks to elucidate the available technology based sustainable

mitigation and adaptation options for the Maldives in order to eradicate the adverse

effects to climatic conditions for Maldives (and for the Earth in general) from land

and maritime transport sector. Although air transport base technologies are paramount

to mitigate overall GHG emissions from transport sector, air transport technologies

are excluded in this In-depth TNA as it’s beyond the scope of study.

Furthermore the assessment will exemplify policy support options for the Government

of Maldives for successful adaptation of GHG curbing technologies with emphasis on

financing mechanisms, barriers to technologies transfer and key capacity building



needs (which paves the way for promotion of technology transfer to Maldives). Lack

of reliable and accurate data was the major hindrance in precision guided calculations

and in providing accurate recommendations.

Research superstructure of In-depth TNA Figure 1.1, provides a graphic

representation of flow and distribution of study. Details of the chapter are presented in

Table 1.1 below:

TABLE 1.1

NUMBER TITLE DETAILS

CHAPTER

ONE

INTRODUCTION AND

METHODOLOGY

Introduce the subject of enquiry.

Present the research superstructure and main

components of forthcoming chapters.

Illustrate the methodology of research.

CHAPTER

TWO

CHARACTERISTICS OF

MALDIVES: ITS DEPENDENCY

ON TRANSPORT SECTOR

Address characteristics of Maldives and,

evolution, growth and energy needs of transport

Provides highlights on road transport in male,

road transport in atolls, inter-island sea transport,

international shipping and ports.

CHAPTER

THREE

TRANSPORT SECTOR AND

CLIMATE CHANGE:

TECHNICAL EVALUATION

Illustrate the effects of air pollution, climate

change to earth and Maldives.

Address air pollution from transport and

measurement constraints of GHG.

Exemplify energy consumption and, history and

forecast of GHG emissions.

CHAPTER

FOUR

HARD AND SOFT

TECHNOLOGY-BASED

OPTIONS FOR REDUCING

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION

FROM TRANSPORT SECTOR

Address the analytic hierarchy model: transport

initiatives to improve air quality.

Provided detail review on traffic demand

management techniques and actions to reduce

vehicles and vessel emissions.

CHAPTER

FIVE

ADAPTATION MEASURES

FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF

HARD AND SOFT GHG

MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES

Address adaptation measures such as public

awareness, demand-side management, private

sector participation, and government policy

support.

CHAPTER

SIX

CONCLUSION AND

RECOMMENDATIONS

Provide conclusion and recommendations for the

study.

Recommend areas for further research.



GOVERNMENT OF MALDIVES

CHARACTERISTICS OF MALDIVES

Chapter 2

Chapter 1Chapter 4

FIGURE 1.1 IN-DEPTH TNA

SUPERSTRUCTURE

TECHNOLOGY-BASED SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE MITIGATION OF CLIMATE

CHANGE IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Technology options for land transport Technology options for Maritime Transport

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE TECHNOLOGIES

Chapter 5

Strategies, policies and options for transport sector Awareness advocacy and private sector participation, Barriers,

Milestone Targets

TRANSPORT SECTOR

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE CHANGE:

TECHNICAL EVALUATION

INTERNATIONAL LEGISLATIONS

Source: Author

INTRODUCTION

Chapter 3

RECOMMENDATIONS

CONCLUSION Chapter 6

RECOMMENDED FURTHER RESEARCH


MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND WATER 5

1.2 METHODOLOGY FOR IN-DEPTH TNA: PARTICIPATORY AND

CONSULTATIVE APPROACH

The In-depth TNA provides proven and viable technology-based solutions

underpinned by targeted research studies on comprehensive literature, internet based

research, focus group discussions and policy reviews. In order to recommend

successful and sustainable technology based solutions to best suit the special

circumstances of the Maldives, key stake holders such as government representatives,

private sector and business representatives, experts and professionals, technology

suppliers and non-governmental organizations were consulted. Further information on

relevant policies, guidelines and regulatory measures were attained through series of

public and private sector awareness generation campaigns. The Figure 1.2 below

exemplifies the methodical flow chart of In-depth TNA study.



FIGURE1.2: METHODICAL FLOW CHART OF IN-DEPTH TNA STUDY

Source: Author

PRELIMINARY LITERATURE REVIEW

Step 1

Step 2STAKEHOLDER

CONSULTATIONS SESSION 1:

Ministry of Transport and Communications

Ministry of Planning and National Development

Step 4PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR

AWARENESS CAMPAIGNS

SUBMISSION OF FINAL REPORT

Step 6

RECEIPT OF FORMAL COMMENTS

Step 7

RE-SUBMISSION OF FINAL REPORT

Step 8

SUBMISSION OF DRAFT FINAL REPORT

Step 3



CHAPTER TWO

CHARACTERISTICS OF MALDIVES: IT’S

DEPENDENCY ON TRANSPORT SECTOR

2.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF MALDIVES

The Republic of Maldives is a small South Asian developing country, in fact the sixth

smallest sovereign state in the world in terms of land area (Maldives partnership

forum, 2007). Maldives is an archipelago, which consists of approximately 1200

islands (which vary in size ranging from 0.5 km2 to 5.0 km2, enormously in shape and

on average 1 meter above mean sea level) scattered along a chain of 20 administrative

coral atolls (MPND 2004), which makes Maldives among the most vulnerable and

least defensible countries to the projected impact of climate change and associated sea

level rise.

The atoll chain is 860km long and 80-120km wide from latitude 706’35”N to

0042’24”S, and lying between longitude 72033’19”E to 73046’13”E1. The northern

atolls are broad banks, discontinuously fringed by reefs with small reef islands and

with numerous patch reefs and faros in the lagoon (Woodroffe 1989). In the southern

atolls, faros and patch reefs are rarer in the lagoon, the continuity of the atoll rim is

greater, and a larger proportion of the perimeter of the atolls is occupied by islands

(MHAHE 2001).

Maldives located on the 1600km long Laccadives-Chagos submarine ridge extending

into the central Indian Ocean from the south-west coast of the Indian sub-continent,

and shares boundaries of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) with Sri Lanka and

India on the northeast and the Chagos Islands on the south (see Annex I for map).

1 Further information on Maldives is cited on TNA (2006), Technology Needs Assessment, Ministry of Environment, Energy and Water.



Maldives is a maritime nation2 with 99% of its territory as sea, which makes the

country heavily dependent on its transport sector (especially sea transport) for

economic and social activities. Transport sector (which predominantly adapts a uni-

modal system of transport3) is developing and will be developing as a multi-modal

transport system to cater for the arising demand for transport from economic and

development trends (primarily due to tremendous upsurge of international trade that

has been revealed during the last two decades), and demographic trends (see Figure

2.1).

FIGURE 2.1

2 All South Asian countries, including Maldives, rightfully consider themselves as maritime nations. The only exception to this statement is the Landlocked Laos (Sein et al, 2003) 3 such as other Asian countries such as Bhutan and Nepal

Projected Mid-Year Population of Maldives 2005 -2010(Both Sexes)

20052006

20072008

20092010

280,000285,000290,000295,000300,000305,000310,000315,000320,000325,000

Source: Analysis by Author, raw data from MPND 2006



The demand for transport will grow faster than population and GDP in most

developing countries (World Bank 1996). In fact in the Maldives the demand for

transport is expected to grow by more than 9% per annum which is the annual GDP

growth rate. The share contribution of transport sector (in combination with

Communication sector, as provided by MPND 2006) comprises of 18% of GDP (see

Figure 2.2), and has revealed a steep growth trend. See Figure 2.3 for percentage

share of GDP and see Figure 2.4 for GDP growth rate.

FIGURE 2.2

FIGURE 2.3

FIGURE 2.4

PERCENTAGE SAHRE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, BY KIND OF ACTIVITY, 2005

(Estimated using production approach, in percentage at constant price)

3% 7% 1%7%

4%5%

4%

21%18%

3%

7%

3%15%

2%

Agriculture

Fisheries

Coral and Sand Mining

Manufacturing

Electricity

Construction

Wholesale and retail trade

Tourism

Transport and Communication

Financial Services

Real Estate

Business Services

Government Administration

Education, Health and SocialServices


Transport Sector's share for Gross Domestic Product 1995 - 2005 (estimated using production approach, in percent at 1995 constant price)

10

13

16

19

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

% S

hare

of G

DP

Transport and Communication




FIGURE 2.4

Maldives faces the greatest threat from climate change, rise in sea level and global

warming, such as all low-lying countries and Small Island states (Country Strategy

Paper, 2003). The environment of the Maldives is extremely fragile and vulnerable as

around 80% of the total landmass of the Maldives is less than 1 meter above sea level,

which increases the vulnerability of extremely dispersed and fragmented island

population (7th NDP, 2007). In spite of the overall positive development trends, the

Maldives still faces several key development challenges (Country Strategy Paper,

2003). Hence Maldives has yet to make its best endeavour to adapt fuel efficient

technologies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the impacts on climate

change.

G ro s s D o m e s tic P ro d u c t, G ro w th R a te s o f T ra n s p o rt S e c to r (e s tim a te d u s in g p ro d u c tio n a p p ro c h , is p e rc e n ta g e a t 2 0 0 5 c o n s ta n t p ric e )

-10-505

10152025

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Perc

enta

ge G

row

th R

ates

T rans port and C om m unic a t ion G D P a t b as ic P ric e




2.2 TRANSPORTATION SECTOR OF MALDIVES

2.2.1 EVOLUTION AND GROWTH OF TRANSPORT SECTOR: PAST,

PRESENT AND FUTURE

Transport plays an essential role in economic and social development in our societies.

It ensures access to jobs, housing goods and services by providing mobility of people

and for the opening up of peripheral and isolated regions. However, the continuing

expansion of transport, heavily dominated by sea transport for Maldives in general

and road transport particularly in Male, raises serious concerns about the long-term

sustainability of present mobility trends. In particular the increasing evidence of the

adverse impacts to environment by transport places the need to address effectively

transport-related issues at the top, in-line with the international political agenda

(THEPEP, 2007).

The transport sector has evolved in an ad hoc manner, without a comprehensive plan4.

With a low volume of travel and commerce, this system has worked reasonably well

in the past, though costs are inflated because the full capacity of a vessel may not be

used or because the vessel may return empty on the inbound trip. Since an efficient

transport system is vital for soco-economic development and the provision of essential

services to a widely dispersed population, a planned approach to the development of

the transport sector is urgently needed. However in 2007, most transport is contracted

on an ad hoc basis5.

Public transportation, be it land or sea, is practically non-existent except for some

recent initiatives to link the main island of Malé with some neighbouring islands. The

distances between the islands are quite long and people have to depend on water

transport facilities (powered by diesel) for moving essential commodities such as food

and fuel, and travel for essential services such as healthcare to and from main islands

to the smaller ones (National Energy Policy, 2006).

4 As a result the various projects and activities in the sector lack coordination and efficiency. 5 When someone needs passenger or goods transport, they negotiate with a vehicle or vessel owner and reach agreement on a time and fee.



In future Maldives requires a balance of high performing and efficient multimodal

transportation system (i.e. combination of land and sea modes of transport, that

supports sustainable economic growth) that will serve as a core of scheduled

passenger and cargo service, without adversely impacting the environment

(Thirumalai 2005, Onakomaiya 2001). New technologies will continue to direct the

evolution of land and sea transport sector.

2.2.3 TRANSPORT SECTOR AND ENERGY NEEDS: RELEVANCE AND

IMPLICATION

At present land and sea modes of transportation is not well organized and there is no

regular public service developed except the ones that have been introduced very

recently around Malé Island. As a result, there is a rapid growth in the number of two-

wheelers and cars in the island, increasing the fuel demand, air pollution and traffic

congestion on the limited available road space (National Energy Policy, 2006).

Maldives is predominantly an energy importer to power transport vehicles and

vessels. The change in oil prices in the international market is a burden the economy

has faced. The most common forms of energy used in the Maldives are petroleum

fuels, which are for power generation, transportation, lighting and food preparation.

These include diesel fuel oil (DFO), gasoline, aviation fuel, kerosene and LPG. DFO

(similar to automotive diesel) is used mainly for power generation (MHAHE 2001).

Together with gasoline, DFO is also used as fuel for automobiles and marine outboard

engines in the transportation sector. It is also consumed by ocean-going ships calling

at Male’.

Diesel prices have gone up by 80% between the period January 2003 –October 2005,

while kerosene prices have gone up by 84% during the period April 2002 October

2005 and petrol prices increased by 68% during January 2002-September 2005 (TNA,

2006). See Figure 3.1 for upward trend curve of percentage change of consumer price

index from 2002 to 2005.



FIGURE 2.5

2.3 ROAD TRANSPORT IN MALÉ

The Malé road system consists of a paved network of 59.5 kilometres of road, with

carriageways of varying width. In the last six years, the size of the vehicle fleet (see

Figure 3.1) has been growing rapidly at an annual growth rate of 18% and is expected

to continue this steady growth (TMP, 2003). The household survey of Domestic

transport sector development program (phase 1) indicates that the total number of

vehicles in Male Urban Region (see subdivision 4.2.1 for graphic overview) is 22,303.

Of this 77% are motor cycles, while 14% are bicycles. Four wheel vehicles make up

only 9% or around 2000 vehicles (MTC, 2007). See Figure 3.2. It is estimated that

94% of the fleet is operating in Malé, which are used for various purposes (see Figure

3.3).

C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X , P E R C E N TAG E C H AN G E O V E R P R E V IO U S Y E R S

( In d e x -b a s e : J u n e 1 9 9 5 = 1 0 0 )

-4-202468

1 01 2

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

% C

hang

e C

P

T ra n s p o rt a n d C o m m u n ic a tio n (B a s e W e ig h t 1 1 .0 1 )

T o ta l fo r a l l M a jo r S e c to rs (B a s e W e ig h t 1 0 0 )




FIGURE 2.6: GROWTH OF VEHICLE FLEET, POPULATION AND

INCOME IN MALE’ 1995-2021

FIGURE 2.7: VEHICLE SPILT MALE 2006

Source: MTC 2007

Source: MTC 2007



The number of vehicles is surprisingly large given the physical size of Male’ and the

existing problems of population congestion. This concentration of vehicles produces

both air and noise pollution and imposes serious safety risks for both pedestrians and

vehicle operators. A larger transport policy question is why so many vehicles are

needed in such a limited geographical space in the first place. Male’ has rapidly

changed from a walking to a riding population and from bicycles to motorized

vehicles. The small gains in speed and convenience are purchased at a high price in

terms of health and the ambience of the community. It will be difficult for

Government to counter the individual preferences of so many consumers who wish to

acquire and use motorized vehicles or upgrade to a higher standard of vehicle.

Present congestion is due to poor management of existing road space. There are an

estimated 37,500 motor cycle, 12,500 car/taxi return trips per day and more than 1000

pedestrians per day. It is widely held that during school time this would increase

further. The capacity utilisation of the two way roads is poor due to the manner in

which the one-way roads have been deployed. The total cost for all household for

personal travel is thus estimated as MRf 108 million, approx 1% of GDP (MTC,

2007).

2.3.1 Pedestrians

Even though there is considerable pedestrian activity, facilities for pedestrians is

grossly under provided. This has resulted in loss of quality of social interaction

especially for children and the elderly in Male’. This also encourages unnecessary

motorized travel and parking requirements.

Source: MTC 2007

FIGURE 2.8 TRIP PURPOSE FOR VEHICLE USE



2.3.2 Parking

66% of available road space is utilized by 4 wheeled (or larger) vehicles. This

includes space for both circulation and parking. The net contribution to the transport

effort by these vehicles is around 25%. The absence of a policy on parking has

resulted in 1/4th of vehicles taking up 2/3rd of available road space. Over 70% of

household who own a car does not have own parking for vehicles. Many office

building and commercial establishments are putting up buildings without even a

fraction of the required parking. Every new vehicle that is imported will need

approximately two new parking spaces apart from space for circulation. There is no

parking fee and no effective control of parking at the present times. The single biggest

reason for the present congestion is the haphazard traffic management and lack of

parking management.

2.3.3 Traffic Management

Many roads in Male’ have been made one-way. There is evidence from the traffic

counts that this needs to be revised since directional splits in the two way roads are

disproportionate indicating that road utilisation has become poor. This would mean a

system wide approach to road network planning. This can be done now that the road

inventory survey has been completed. The entire system of one ways should be

looked at after considering the capacity of roads links and junctions and not in a case

by case basis. There is also the need to consider some roads where pedestrian flows

are dominant to be redesigned as pedestrian walkways with limited vehicular access.

2.3.4 Vehicle Ownership

In the case of Male’ vehicle ownership is set to increase to alarming proportions. It is

expected that it will grow by 200% over 15 years (see Figure 3.4 and 3.5). The only

impediment at present is the physical lack of parking space. Introduction of good

quality public transport and pedestrian facilities will reduce this growth rate. Other

forms of measures such as parking fees, high import duties etc will also have an effect

if introduced in parallel to alternative transport modes.



FIGURE 2.9: VEHICLE OWNERSHIP RATE (PER 1000 PERSONS)

FIGURE 2.10: ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS

Source: MTC 2007

Source: MTC 2007



2.4 ROAD TRANSPORT IN THE ATOLLS

Due to the geography of the Maldives (200 inhabited islands of relatively small size),

the present inter-city or rural road network is not expected to be expanded

significantly. There are only two significant island link roads, one in Addu Atoll road

and one in Laamu Atoll, both approximately 14 Km in length. Throughout the

inhabited islands, there is a complex network of urban roads, built generally with

coral sand (except Foammullah Island and Addu link road where they have been

paved). The vehicle fleet in the atolls, outside the Malé urban region is still limited,

accounting for only 8% of the total fleet, with half of them being commercial

vehicles. Taxis in some large islands are available but no systematic public transport

has so far emerged (TMP, 2007).

2.5 INTER-ISLAND SEA TRANSPORT

Domestic maritime such as sea freight and passenger traffic is dominated by

movements directly between Malé and individual Small Island communities. Previous

studies have tended to present the domestic maritime transport system as a “hub and

spoke” system, with the hub in Malé and the spoke radiating out of Male’. This has

been an accurate description of the inter-island transport network in the past, but is

becoming less so as the number of hubs increases. The rapid development of the

regional centres around the country largely centred on the atoll capitals, has reduced

the need for the atoll population to travel frequently to Male as has been the case

traditionally. However the de-centralisation is hampered by lack of basic

infrastructure and poorly developed inter island transportation system (Rasheed,

2004).

Malé is no longer the only point of international cargo landing in the country. The

gradual relaxation of government regulation on the locations designated for

international cargo landing has meant that international cargo now enters the republic

in different locations (S.Hithadhoo and Hd.Kulhudufushi regional ports, Thilafushi

etc.), making these sites into smaller transport hubs for cargo, thereby reducing the

traditional dependence of Malé. However Malé still remains the centre of commerce

and the main transport hub in the country. Currently some 80% of imported cargo is

landed in the Malé Urban area (TMP, 2003).



Between 2004 and 2005, the number of registered dhonis increased by 4.5% to 4587

and the number of speed boats by 12.5% to 1035. Among the 7016 vessels (sum for

all types) registered for 2005 and 1035 high-speed boats, a noticeable 37.4% and 78%

respectively are categorised for use in Male’ region (MTC, 2006). See Figure 3.1 and

3.2. Regrettably traditional tri-sail dhoni is becoming an increasingly rare sight in the

islands. Over time, diesel engines have replaced sails, fishing vessels have become

larger and changing, new tanker and cargo ships, and passenger vessels have

appeared, larger and faster speedboats have been introduced, and safari boats and

sport and pleasure craft are common sights in the atolls.

Maritime Vessels use by Locality, 2005

Other Atolls 63%

Male' Atoll37%

Male' Atolls


Vessels According to Registration by Locality 2003-2005

Male'

Atolls

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2003 2004 2005

Male' Atolls

FIGURE 2.12

FIGURE 2.11



2.6 INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING AND SEAPORTS

International shipping and sea transport of freight has revealed and promising growth

trend as exemplified by Figure 2.13 (MPA, 2006), and will remain a key part of

Maldives’ economic infrastructure as they are an important source of revenue for the

national economy (TMP, 2003). Inter-island shipping services are operated almost

entirely by the private sector, while the government provides essential infrastructure

such as harbours and regulatory functions such as maritime safety.

FIGURE 2.13

Support transport infrastructure facilities (which includes three major commercial

sea ports and more than 128 island harbours) for sea vessels at ports needs to be

enhanced (Maldives Partnership Forum, 2007). Special attention need to be paid to

extending modern cargo service to more locations, through the application of current

and new technology for safer and cost-effective loading and offloading in order to

increase overall profitability and efficiency. Port activities are strongly dominated by

imports; exports represent only a small proportion of the throughput. Imports at Male’

Commercial Harbour (MCH) is expected to grow from 222,000 tonnes in year 2006 to

322,000 tonne by 2012, with the growth coming mainly from container traffic (i.e.

10,000 tonnes for HDh.Kulhudufushi Regional Port and 25,000 for S.Hithadhoo

Regional Port in 20126). See Appendix I for map for geographic locations.

6 Forecasts presented are based on simple techniques using assumptions emerging from various stakeholders, observations on time trends and simple regression analyses using micro-economic variables. Cited in TMP (2003), National Transport Master plan: Maldives, Ministry of Transport and Communication

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2002 2003 2004 2005

Cargo Throughput by Sea 2002-2005




CHAPTER THREE

TRANSPORT SECTOR AND CLIMATE

CHANGE: TECHNICAL EVALUATION

3.1 AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE: A GENERAL OVERVIEW

According to international scientists there is extensive evidence that the world is

getting warmer, with an increase in global average surface temperature of about 0.6°C

over the 20th century (ADB 2006, Pachauri 2006, IPCC 2001), See Figure 3.1. While

such a temperature change may seem modest, it is now accepted that this is producing

changes in our climate system that include an increase in precipitation in the Northern

Hemisphere over most mid- and high latitudes, accompanied by a decrease in rainfall

over much of the subtropical land area.

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001.

FIGURE 3.1



Warm episodes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon have been more

frequent, persistent, and intense since the mid-1970s, compared with the previous 100

years. These changes (that are threats for low-lying islands and coastal areas,

especially is Asia, some of which are densely populated), are being demonstrably and

strongly linked to increasing anthropogenic activity and greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions that principally derive from an unprecedented increase in carbon-based

energy consumption (ADB, 2006). In fact the atmospheric concentration of carbon

dioxide (CO2) has increased by 31% since 1750 to levels that have not been exceeded

during at least the past 420,000 years.

Emerging Asian nations are a stakeholder in climate change mitigation that needs

special emphasis as they currently emit 25% of worldwide GHG emissions, and

emissions are projected to increase due to the growth in oil consumption, sound

economic and population growth. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report estimates a projected sea level rise of 0.09m to

0.88m for 1990 to 2100 (IPCC 1998). The Maldives being a fragile low lying small

island ecosystem, is very vulnerable to climate change and its associated impacts

especially the predicted sea level rise, even though the Maldives contribute less than

0.01% to global emissions of GHGs ( MPND and UNDP 1998, MHAHE 2001).



3.2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND AIR POLLUTION: TRANSPORT

PERSPECTIVE

Motorized transport is a major cause of air pollution in and around densely populated

cities. Vehicles in and vessels around urban areas are major emitters of greenhouse

gasses (GHG), therefore having a significant impact on climate change. Climate

Change Mitigation through Urban Planning and Development has become

increasingly important since 2007, as 50% of the global population is considered to be

living in urban areas (UNHabitat). Hence, urban planning has a direct impact on

climate change because well-planned cities provide a better foundation to reduce

GHG than do unplanned cities

Fossil fuel combustion from land-use vehicles and maritime vessels have increased

due to increased emissions of GHG including carbon dioxide (Clean Cities, 2006),

which the world's leading scientists believe are causing global climate change

(www.ltscotland.org.uk). All vehicles that are powered by petrol, diesel, natural gas or

any other petroleum product emit, or give out, pollutants by fossil fuel combustion.

Some vehicles are more polluting than others, depending upon the kind and quality of

fuel, how efficiently they burn it, what mechanisms they have in place to “neutralize”

pollutants to less harmful substances such as water vapour and nitrogen (an inert gas).

Air quality of the Maldives is generally considered to be good and is in pristine state.

In the capital city Male’ the increasing number of motor vehicles on the roads and

destructions of cross circulation of GHG by high rise buildings are deteriorating the

urban air quality of Male’. Local air pollution in Male’ is mainly due to particulate

emission from vehicles, power generation, and construction related activities. Though

the pollution is visible in certain times, no numerical measures of the level of

pollution are available (MHAHE, 2001b).



3.3 ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS OF AIR POLLUTION: A BRIEF

HIGHLIGHT

Air pollution has adverse effects on the environment; see Externalities of air pollution

in Table 3.2 (Rodrigue, 2007). As motorised transport emits GHG heavily it can be

assumed that environmental cost of motorised transport is high is the Maldives. Air

pollutants have a high proficiency to affect the environment as it is widely linked to

biological diversity and sustainability. Environmental cost includes general damage

done to the ecosystem through the atmosphere, except for what may be considered

economically useful to human activities, like crops.

TABLE 3.2

EXTERNALITIES OF AIR POLLUTION

TYPE FIELD POSSIBLE MEASURES

Loss of useful life (amortization) Structures and infrastructure

Replacement and restoration costs

Labour productivity Men-hours-wage losses

Output/surface decrease

Economic Costs

Agricultural productivity Biomass (e.g. timber) restoration time losses

Medical services costs Social Costs Public health

Loss of life expectancy

Environmental Costs Damage to ecosystems Biological diversity and sustainability

Source: Rodrigue J.P.



3.4 ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF TRANSPORT SECTOR

The transport sector in 2002 used 21% of the worldwide all-sector total energy

consumption and is projected to generate over 60% of the increase in total energy use

through 2025.

In the Maldives, the transport sector accounts for a considerable consumption of

energy (see Figure 3.2) in most common forms such as petroleum fuels, diesel fuel oil

(DFO), gasoline, aviation fuel, kerosene and LPG7. Not having any indigenous fossil

fuels, the country has to depend fully on the import of fossil fuels that increased from

about 74,000 tons in 1994 to 138,000 tons in 2000, the annual increase of almost 11%

over the period concerned. Hence the total final energy consumption amounts to

147,721 toe8, with transport consuming 45,737 toe or 31% (National Energy Policy,

2006). The combined sea transportation for resorts and atolls accounted for more than

57% of the transport sector’s consumption (see Figure 3.3). As a result the cost of

transport remains very high.

FIGURE 3.2: TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY ENERGY

CARRIERS, 2002

7 DFO (similar to automotive diesel) is used mainly for power generation. 8 All basic data on energy consumption and GHG emission calculations will be converted in to “ton oil equivalent”, or toe in order to cite all data in one common unit of measure.

Source: National Energy Policy (2006)



FIGURE3.3 OVERVIEW OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TRANSPORT

SECTOR, 2002

3.4.2 Net Consumption of Diesel / Marine Gas Oil

Diesel is the main imported energy carrier (National Energy Policy, 2006). Figure 3.4

exemplifies that the import of diesel has remained quite constant between 2002 and

2005, with the highest imported year in 2004.

FIGURE 3.4: IMPORT OF DIESEL

For Calculation Purpose:

Total Final Energy Consumption for 2002 = 147,721 Toe

Final Energy Consumption in Transport,2002 = 45,738 Toe

Source: National Energy Policy (2006)

Im port of die se l

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002 2003 2004 2005

Y ear

ktoe

Source: Energy Balances and Indicators (2006)



Table 4.2 illustrates the registered imports and exports of diesel (including net storage

of diesel oil and bunkering) are shown below. Net consumption (i.e. 161.366 metric

tons) is derived by deducting re-export from import.

TABLE 4.2: DIESEL / MARINE GAS OIL

DIESEL / MARINE GAS OIL

2003 2004 2005 Measurement Unit

Import 165,233 202,530 178,109 Metric Tonne

Re-Export 17,784 15,500 16,743 Metric Tonne

Net consumption 147,449 187,030 161,366 Metric Tonne Primary data Source: Energy Balances and Indicators (2006), Calculation of Net Consumption by

Consultant

3.4.3 Net Consumption of Petrol / Gasoline

Petrol is the second largest imported energy carrier. Table 4.4 exemplifies that the net

consumption of Petrol and Gasoline is 19,209 Metric Tonnes.

TABLE 3.3: PETROL/ GASOLINE IMPORTS AND EXPORT

Petrol and gasoline

2003 2004 2005 Measurement Unit

Import 12,213 18,461 19,209 Metric Tonne

Export Metric Tonne

Net consumption 12,213 18,461 19,209 Metric Tonne Primary data Source: Energy Balances and Indicators (2006), Calculation of Net Consumption by

Author


Formula for Net Consumption

Net Consumption = Imports – Re-exports



3.5 MEASUREMENT OF GHG EMISSION FROM LAND AND MARITIME

TRANSPORT

The air pollution caused by transport can only be an approximation, due to drastic

fluctuations in pertinent variables and complex nature of calculations. Each number is

subject to change, depending on roads, harbour areas accuracy in recording data etc.

(Rodrigue, 2007). Some of the numbers keep changing all the time due to new

vehicles come on roads, vessels in use, old once are discarded, more fuel efficient

technologies are implemented that changes the amount of pollutants given out of each

kilometre or nautical mile.

In a broader sense, petrol-driven transport (both land and maritime) have a different

pattern of pollution than diesel-powered transport. Petrol-driven transport such as cars

motorcycles and speed boats emit more of un burnt petrol and carbon monoxide (as

they use petrol mixed with lubricating oil9). Whereas diesel-powered vehicles (buses

and lorries, fishing vessels, foreign-going vessels) emit more of soot (the technical

term for which is “suspended particulate matter”) and oxides of nitrogen (APECC,

2006). See Table 5.1 in chapter 5 for GHG emissions from different transport modes.

The main pollutants emitted by maritime transport are oxides of nitrogen and sulphur.

Hence the emission of sulphur from ship engines is proportional to the sulphur content

of the bunker oil. The International Maritime Organisation, IMO’s, International

Convention of Maritime Pollution (MARPOL’s) Annex VI sets limits on emissions of

nitrogen oxides (NOX) and Sulphur from Maritime Transport. The NOX Technical

Code, developed by IMO, requires the issuance of an International Air Pollution

Prevention Certificate shall be issued to any ship of 400 gross tonnages or above

engaged in voyages to ports and sets emissions levels of mandatory value.

All ships concerned must have received its certificate no later than the first scheduled

dry-docking after entry into force of the Annex VI protocol, but in no case later than

three years after entry into force of the protocol in 19 May 2008 (Per Kågeson, 2005).

In a case where the ship-owner has installed a scrubber for cleaning the exhaust fumes

from sulphur, a certificate proving the efficiency of the equipment would be required. 9 The problem is aggravated if petrol and the lubricating oil are not mixed in the right proportion; there is incentive enough to add excess of oil because it is cheaper.



All different market-based programmes would require participating ships to register

their specific emissions of NOX (g/kWh or g/km) at normal speed to the distance

travelled.

The amount of pollution is taken to be the quantity of pollutants, in tones, emitted

within a day or over one year. To arrive at any meaningful estimates (in terms of

quantity of pollutants, in tones, within a day or over one year) of the emission level of

pollutants each type vehicle, the following transport-related pollution pollutants are

taken into calculation (TERI 2000):

Sulphur Dioxide

Oxides of nitrogen

Carbon monoxide and

Hydrocarbons

Lead

Suspended particulate matter (SPM)

Sulphur content in bunker fuel

Other elements such as airborne dust, pollen grains fine droplets of oil

Measuring emissions and/or registering the specific emissions from different vessels

appear to be a technical problem10. The following information is required (Expressed

in milligram per litre of fuel):

Number of vehicles of each type (i.e. cars, motorcycles) plying regularly

within the city.

Number of vessels of each type (i.e. speed boats, diesel boats) plying intra and

inter atolls

Number of vessels at anchorage

10 The purpose of the AIS system is mainly to help the watch officer on board to take appropriate measures to avoid collisions or other calamities. The system will give him direct up-dated information about all other ships in the vicinity that are also equipped with AIS, as well as the possibility to add it to electronic charts onboard. In addition, the system also transmits information to the shore. This is extremely useful for Vessel Traffic Systems, VTS, i.e. guiding the ship in congested areas, but is equally important for the Marine Rescue Co-ordination Centres, MRCC, in giving actual up-dated information on all ships participating in a rescue action. The heart in the Automatic Identification System is a transponder on board of the ship. The transponder consists of three main components, a GPS-receiver, a VHF-transceiver and in between them a computerised data processor. Cited in Per Kågeson (2005)



Distance travelled (this can be identified with the Automatic Identification

System, AIS, which automatically transmits the identity of the all ships above

300 gross tonnage).

Fuel consumption per distance (km) covered by types of vehicle and vessels

engines.

Type of GHG curbing catalyst neutralizers installed at exhaust

An evaluation and calculation of the air pollution and greenhouse gas (stipulated in

section 3.5 above) emissions level from Maldivian transport sector as result of energy

consumption is a complicated and time consuming task. The Maldives inventory of

GHG emissions is calculated for the year 2004 and is limited to the best information

available for that year. It was assumed that the fuel imported would be consumed in

that particular year, therefore the stock change for the fuels used in the Maldives was

zero.

Due to lack of data, it was impossible to quantify meaningful emissions levels for all

pollutants emitted from transport sector. However an approximation can be made

based on fuel consumption data on the level of GHG emission in Male. The following

subdivision exemplifies the approximation and provides a realistic forecast GHG

emission until 2011.


Assumption for transport sector:

net fuel energy share is burnt as exhaust

(as Fuel stock in Maldives is less than for 3 months)



3.6 HISTORY AND FORECASTED GHG EMISSIONS (1994-2011)

Emissions of greenhouse gases in the transport sector are steadily increasing (Anable

et al 2006) .The transportation sector is a major contributor to local air pollution as a

significant portion of the GHG emissions in the Maldives is generated by the sector

(see figure 3.5 for History and forecasted GHG emissions from 1994 to 2010 (Idris,

2005). A detailed presentation and analysis was presented in the First Communication

to UNFCCC in 2001.

FIGURE 3.5: HISTORY AND FORECASTED GHG EMISSIONS (1994-2011)

Source: Mr. Abdul Razzak Idris,



CHAPTER FOUR

HARD AND SOFT TECHNOLOGY-BASED

OPTIONS FOR REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS

EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT SECTOR

In the past Maldives has taken policy measures that have a bearing to reduce the

emission of GHGs from business as usual scenarios. Cities such as Malé cannot

(neither any city for in Maldives that matter) can expand its road network to keep pace

with the number of automobiles on its roads; there is neither room nor money for that.

The analysis is limited due to constraints on the availability of necessary data. Hence

Maldives has yet to make its best endeavour to exploit hard and soft technology based

opportunities from the various available options (involving both public and private

activities) to limit emissions from transport sector.

4.1 ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY MODEL: TRANSPORT INITIATIVES TO

IMPROVE AIR QUALITY

Hard and soft technology-based GHG emissions mitigation options exists today that

has the potential to substantially reduce demand for imported fossil fuel and increase

energy efficiency in generating the utilising electricity and improving the efficiency of

the transport mechanisms (MHAHE, 2001).

According to analytical hierarchy methods (in Figure 4.1) there are three fundamental

hard and soft technology based ways to reduce carbon emissions from the

transportation sector, which are:

(i) Traffic Demand Management Techniques

(ii) Reduce Need to Travel

(iii) Actions to Reduce vehicle and vessel emissions



FIGURE 4.1: ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY MODEL

Source: West Yorkshire LTP (2000)



4.2 TRAFFIC DEMAND MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES

This subdivision entails the technology based “predict and provide” options for traffic

demand management in Maldives to reduce the country’s emission of GHGs, but as a

step towards achieving greater independence for sustainable development.

Stakeholders consulted for this In-depth TNA highlighted a series of specific

problems with the current transportation system such as lack of public transport

service, lack of management policies, lack of integration (including traffic flow and

traffic lights and with other modes of transport such as ferries), lack of capacity of

roads network. As a result accident rates and air pollution are worsening on daily

basis.

4.2.1 PROMOTE OPTIONS FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT, PRIORITY

MEASURES AND INTEGRATED TRANSPORT SYSTEMS

- Integrated public Mini Bus services for Malé, Hulhumalé, Addu Atoll, Laamu

atoll, Fuahmulah and Kulhudhufushi road network.

Mass and alternative public transport mini bus service for the above mentioned road

networks is an option that will reduce the reliance on personal vehicles and reduce

travel time (UNHabitat). Establishment of an quality intergraded mini-bus system

shall increase the efficiency in providing mobility as it shall essentially reduce

congestion by taking a large proportion of cars, taxies, motor cycles and pedestrians

off the road. Therefore it will eventually reduce GHG emission. According to Table

4.1 below diesel articulated or battery powered bus emits approximately 11% less of

of CO2 per person compared to emissions from motorcycle (which accounts for more

than 70% of total vehicle fleet in Male’)



TABLE 4.1: GHG EMISSION FROM DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODES

Mode

CO2-equivalent emissions

(grams/vehicle-km)

Maximum Capacity

(passengers)

Average capacity

(passengers)

CO2-equivalent emissions

(grams/passenger-km)

Pedestrian 0 1 1 0 Bicycle 0 2 1.1 0

Gasoline Motor Scooter (2-Stroke) 118 2 1.2 98

Gasoline Motor Scooter (4-Stroke) 70 2 1.2 64

Gasoline Car 293 5 1.2 244 Gasoline Taxi Car 293 5 0.5 586

Diesel Car 172 1.2 1.2 143 Diesel Minibus 750 20 15 50

Diesel Bus 963 80 65 15 Compressed

Natural Gas Bus 1050 80 65 16

Diesel Articulated Bus 1000 160 130 7

Source: Climate Change Mitigation in the Urban Transport Sector (2003), Priorities for the World Bank, Johnson T.M.

Land transport demand is felt mainly in Malé and other large regional growth centres

in the atolls. In reality a drive on the city roads is qualitatively different from that on

long stretched of straight roads as car speeding along highway at about 45km per hour

burns fuel more efficiently than a car in a city that has to slow down and stop

frequently. Therefore the consultants of Domestic Transport Sector Development

program (phase 1, 2007) analysed the “driving cycles” (i.e. the representative for

tropical journey) of Malé road network and proven a mini bus public transport is

feasible (see case study 1 below).

As expected, the roads in Male’ are far from smooth and efficient. Within the time it

took to cover only 4 kilometres, a car had to repeat the entire cycle of picking up

speed, driving at a steady speed, slowing down to a halt, and idling (waiting at traffic

lights, for instance) as many as six times (MTC, 2007). Although the number of

vehicles used in Male has reached the carrying capacity of the island, there is potential

and need for the number of vehicles to expand in other regional growth centres of the

country. It is not just the number of vehicles but the way they are driven on city roads

that contributes to air pollution.



If a minibus service is to be successful the mini-buses need to be small about 16-20

seater with high roof, with a low floor and wide doors. 5-10 passengers may need to

stand during peak periods (see Figure 4.1). If minibus service to be successful, the

frequency has to be 1 bus every 3 minutes, further information is tabulated in Table

4.1 (MTC, 2007). Or else people will not wait as distances are relatively short and

they would walk. In order to achieve this target this would require a fleet of around 15

minibuses for two services (clockwise and anti-clockwise) preferred. The mini bus

system shall be integrated to other modes or systems of transport (such as the ferry

system).

Furthermore the bus service shall need dedicated lanes and dedicated bus roads

(especially in narrow road areas for easy access for passengers and avoid traffic jams,

by pertinent authorities of the government.

CASE STUDY REVIEW 1: SURVEY BY MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION (2007) TO

ANALYSE PASSENGER DEMAND FOR MINI BUS SERVICE IN MALE’

The potential passenger demand for the bus service from the survey results are calculated below:

Ferry passengers who presently walk –estimated y 30% from 11,000 = 3,300. Ferry passengers who presently take a Motor Cycle or Taxi – estimated 10%

from 7,000 = 700. General pedestrians who travel outside their ward- estimated5% of 44,000 = 2,200.

Total Demand per day = minimum of 6,200 passengers. Minimum passengers per trip = 10 Approximate fare maybe between MRf 1 to 2 (max).



FIGURE 4.2SUGGESTED SIZE AND SEATING ARRANGEMENT OF MINI

BUSES

TABLE 4.2: QUALITY SERVICE STANDARDS FOR MINI BUSES OF

MALE’

- Integrated ferry transport system for Male Urban region

Developing of an appropriate integrated transport system combining the land, and sea

transport system is important to further the development of the country as islands and

population of Maldives are extremely scattered. On average, 18 boats travelled to atoll

capital at least three times in a month and 29 boats travelled once or twice to male

from atolls (MPND & UNDP, 1998), and most of these boats are powered by the

imported fossil fuel.

PARAMETER AVERAGE RECOMMENDED VALUE

MAXIMUM PERMISSIBLE VALUE

Waiting time 2-3 minutes Not more than 5 minutes

Distance to the nearest bus stop 80 to 100 meters Not father than 120

meters

Journey times 5 to 8 minutes Not more than 10 minutes

Expenditures of travel (as a percentage of household income)

10% -

Source: MTC, 2006

Source: MTC, 2006



Currently regular ferries operate between Malé, Vlingili and Hulhumale’ on a Hub-

and spoke system, where Male is the hub and other Vlingili and Hulhumale’ are

spokes. Establishment of a regular scheduled ferry service between the islands (that

has direct connection to islands in the urban region, without transiting in Male’) shall

reduce the need for ad hoc hiring of ferries , which will improved the efficiency of

transportation between these islands (see figure 4.2). Developing similar ferry

services in other atolls, between the growth centres in the atoll and islands, as well as

between atolls, would reduce the ad hoc movement of boats that shall reduce emission

of GHG from maritime vessels (MTC, 2007).

FIGURE 4.3 PROPOSED FERRY NETWORK IN MALE’ URBAN REGION



4.2.2 PROMOTE OPTIONS FOR FISCAL RESTRAINTS

Generally, vehicle taxes and fees can be divided into three different categories: excise

taxes on manufacturers or consumers, fuel taxes, and utilization taxes and fees on

consumers (APECC, 2006). As Maldives does not manufacture vehicles, the

following fiscal restrictive options are available:

- Fuel Taxes

In stark contrast to policies in many developed countries, Maldives does not presently

have a fuel tax to take into account the environmental externalities and energy

security concerns of the consumption of oil. Collection of a portion of vehicle

insurance fees as a surcharge on motor fuel could reduce GHG emissions from motor

vehicles by 8 to 12 percent and could improve the overall economic efficiency

transportation (Greene D.L. and Schafer A, 2003).

Fuel taxation is extremely effective at limiting vehicle & vessel use and encouraging

the use of fuel-efficient modes of transport, as it is the highest and most visible

variable cost incurred during vehicle use. Since fuel use per kilometre travelled rises

slightly with congestion, measures to alleviate traffic congestion also tend to increase

fuel economy. Additionally, taxing fuel is the most direct method of taxing

consumption and, for fossil-fuel based fuels, CO2 or carbon emissions11.

- Port dues differentiation.

A system of differentiated port or fairway dues that some countries already impose,

charges the vessels that use port facilities and waters. Differentiated charges in

Maldivian context would involve setting port dues collected through a revenue-neutral

system based partly on emissions of various pollutants12, although some countries

have developed similar programmes that impose dues differentiated on the basis of

environmental criteria. The voluntary differentiated port dues approach would provide

ports with an environmentally differentiated framework, with ports free to use the

framework or not (Per Kågeson, 2005).

11 Current fuel taxes around the world range from around 20c/liter in the United States to 50-70c/liter in Europe and Japan. 12 Such a system of differentiated dues has been used in various Swedish ports since 1998 to encourage reductions in NOX and SO2 emissions.



- Other In-Use Fees

In-use vehicle fees include road and parking pricing schemes and vessel fees include

harbour fee schemes. Such fees are intended to restrict the use of personal vehicles

and vessels, discourage long stay parking, discourage long stay at harbours etc. Road

pricing includes the use of congestion, parking, toll roads and toll bridges (for

example the suggested toll for Hulhumale’ bridge). Vessel fees include harbour

congestion charges and anchoring charges. All fees shall be ideally implemented by

an integrated system to penalize drivers for using specific zones at specific times (e.g.

daily fees imposed on drivers in and around the congested Malé north harbour area,

such as in London’s city centre). Malé could potentially benefit greatly from

congestion pricing systems or even no-car zones or no-car days. These fiscal

restraining options would also encourage the use of public transport, walking, and

bicycles in congested areas.

4.2.3 PROMOTE OPTIONS FOR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

- Electronic congestion and toll collection system

Electronic toll collection and congestion charge systems linked to central databanks

make it possible to pay toll charges without the car having a stop. Users buy a small

device located behind the wind shield. A sensor at the toll gate reads the tag,

automatically deducts the appropriate amount, and lets the vehicle pass. Users are also

automatically alerted when it is time to recharge the device. The signals can even be

linked to a bank account, which is debited automatically (see case study review one

for e-toll system in Singapore). The e-toll collection system can be implemented in

Male’, despite the heavy cost of initial establishment, periodic maintenance and

enforcement.



4.2.4 PROMOTE MARKET BASED OPTIONS FOR CARBON CREDIT

POINT TRADING

- The stringent credit-based approach

The stringent credit-based approach is a credit-based trading programme. Credit

programmes provide tradable “credits” to facilities that voluntarily reduce emissions

below their “business as usual” (BAU) levels. These credits can be traded and counted

toward compliance by facilities that would face high costs or other difficulties in

meeting their emissions requirements. In the shipping context, a credit-based program

would allow ship owners to reduce emissions and sell the emission reduction credits

to land-based sources assumed to be subject to a cap-and- trade programme. A

stringent approach would require shippers to achieve emission rates below BAU

levels - in order to provide net emissions reductions- and also to provide clear

evidence of BAU levels in order to avoid “anyway tons,” i.e. reductions that would

occur without the programme. Continuous monitoring (Per Kågeson, 2005).

CASE STUDY REVIEW 1:

THE VEHICLE QUOTA SYSTEM IN SINGAPORE FOR ADAPTATION OF

VEHICLE DEMAND STRATEGY

The vehicle quota system in Singapore employs an open bidding process for certificates of

entitlement to own a vehicle; this is combined with a high initial registration cost (around 150% of

the vehicles market value), an annual road tax that increases with engine capacity and has a

surcharge for older vehicles, and an Electronic Road Pricing based on a spatial and temporal pay-

as-you-use principle to control the movement of vehicles and ensure that congestion does not

worsen. In other cities, road and congestion pricing programs, park and ride schemes and even

parking fees may be used to control the movement of private motor vehicles to areas with high

vehicle concentration like business districts to address congestion and access problems. At the

same time this makes available an auxiliary source of funds for public transport improvements.



- The consortia benchmarking approach.

Benchmarking programmes identify a specific emissions rate to apply to covered

activities and require that the average emission rate from these activities does not

exceed the benchmark level. In contrast to the credit-based approach, benchmarking

has to be mandatory rather than a voluntary programme. The benchmark rate

establishes a baseline. Sources subject to the programme can trade credits amongst

each other and thereby lower the cost of meeting the emissions rate target. In the

shipping context, a benchmark trading programme would set an emission rate for

ships subject to the programme and allow ship owners (or operators) to buy and sell

credits based upon a formula linking emission rates to credits.

The most promising variety of benchmarking is to allow consortia of ship-owners to

band together to reduce the cost of meeting more stringent limits. This would provide

gains both to shippers and to the environment. The more stringent limits would yield

environmental gains, as would the development of differential ratios based upon

vessel location and stricter emissions monitoring and reporting regimes. This

approach, however, would still face legal and political challenges (i.e. changes would

required in the IMO and fuels directive).

There are several options for recycling the money saved. To design a ‘cap and trade’

scheme, where the average ship would have to comply with a baseline or benchmark

value (kg/kWh) that is successively lowered over a period of years, a trading platform

for emission permits has to be established. The revenue could be returned to the

owners of the vessels that invest in NOX and/or sulphur abatement technologies in a

way that does not disturb the function of the charge. It could be done based on the

ship’s annual net-energy consumption or on the number of gross registered tonne

kilometres produced in the designated area by each ship owner. Ship owners that

invest in NOX and/or sulphur abatement technologies would receive more than they

pay, and owners of high polluting ships would pay more than they get back. For the

industry as such it would be a zero sum game (Per Kågeson, 2005).



4.3 ACTIONS TO REDUCE VEHICLE AND VESSEL EMISSIONS

4.3.1 PROMOTE OPTION FOR USE OF EMISSIONS NEUTRELIZERS,

TESTING DEVICES OF “GROSS POLLUTERS”, AND NATURAL

BARRIERS

- Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) converters

Selective Catalytic Reduction converters fitted near the exhaust pipes of diesel-

powered cars and vessels, neutralize three major pollutants namely carbon monoxide,

hydrocarbons, oxide of nitrogen. These convert the harmful gases, namely carbon

dioxide (CO2), water vapour and nitrogen (an inert gas). Diesel particulate filter with

additives (a mixture of iron and strontium), which can work only ultra-low-sulphur

diesel (0.005% sulphur), are “treatment” devices that trap pollutants emanating from

diesel-powered vehicles (especially buses and lorries).

Cars fitted converters cannot run on petrol that contains lead because it “poisons” the

catalyst. Petrol vehicles are fitted with advanced three-way catalysts with

sophisticated electronic controls for spark timing and air-fuel management (ADB,

2006). However converters begin to work only when the exhaust is warm, which

happens only after the engine has been running for a while. At the start point of

engine, when emissions are maximum, the converters are ineffective.

Existing international regulation (particularly MARPOL adopted in 1997) stipulate

limitations for air pollution and NOx emissions from ships and sulphur content in

Bulk Liquids and Gases (BLG). In the effort to comply with such regulations more

than fifty ships world-wide have been fitted with Selective Catalytic reduction (SCR)

converters by 2004 (FEI 2006, EEB 2004).



-Emissions testing, sensing and screening devices

Vehicles and vessel roadworthiness and seaworthiness inspectorates respectively need

to be equipped with emission remote testing, sensing and screening devices to identify

the level of “Gross Pollutants” emission from engines. Such technology shall prevail

the enforcing the minimum emission standard stipulated by government.

- Prevent Pollutants Dissipation through Natural Barriers

Reducing the extent to which pollutants are exposed through national barriers,

planting leafy trees for example, is a low cost options that can remove dust from

atmosphere13.

4.3.2 PROMOTE USE OF ALTERNATIVE FUEL CONFIGURATIONS FOR

VEHICLES (AFVS)

Improving technology makes vehicles and vessels more fuel efficient (House of

Commons, 2006). Stabilizing and reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas

concentrations is essential to global sustainability and this will require intensified and

ongoing efforts to increase overall global energy efficiency and a shift from fossil

fuels to non-carbon energy sources (ADB, 2006).

Effectively reducing the carbon intensity of transportation energy will require use of

alternatives to petroleum, such as fuels mentioned below (that will continue to be

viable in niche markets), and require consideration of GHG emissions over the full

fuel cycle. Lower-carbon replacement fuels, such as alcohols or ethanol produced

from biomass can be blended with gasoline to displace several percent of petroleum

use. If methods of producing ethanol from cellulose can be commercialized,

renewable liquid fuels blended with petroleum fuels could reduce transportation’s

CO2 emissions by 2 percent by 2015 and 7 percent by 2030 (ADB, 2006). However

improvements within energy efficiency of different means of transport and the

introduction of renewable fuels are not sufficient to offset the growth of transport

volumes (European Environment agency 2007, Wright & Fairley 2006, Fulton 2005,

T&E and North Sea 2004).

13 Face masks are also used as a bastion barrier in the battle against pollution.



Lead-free petrol is also widely used in many countries as it emits less GHG than

normal petrol. Although Lead-free petrol is free of lead it contains benzene, which

increases the amount of another pollutant, known to be carcinogenic, namely

polyaromatic hydrocarbons. More practically, lead free petrol may not be available or

affordable in outer atolls of Maldives. Other alternative fuels for vehicles are

exemplified below:

- Ethanol

Ethanol is an alternative energy source created from sugar or carbohydrate vegetable

stocks, most often sugar cane or corn, and is being pushed aggressively in Brazil and,

to a lesser extent, the United States. Ethanol is a gasoline substitute and may be

blended with conventional gasoline up to about 10% without required engine

modifications for the existing, gasoline-powered fleet (APECC (2006). Vehicles that

run on ethanol have lower CO2 emissions than traditional vehicles. Flexible-fuel E85

vehicles can operate using gasoline, or any mixture of the two.

-Bio diesel

Bio-diesel is an ester (similar to vinegar) and is a generic name given to any diesel

fuel created from high lipid-content biomass and designed to function in existing

diesel engines. Bio-diesel is different from ethanol as it can be produced not only

from virgin crop feed-stocks, but also from waste oil, grease, vegetable oils, animal

fats recycled cooking oils and soybean oil. Each year about 30 million gallons of bio

diesel are produced in the United States from recycled cooking oils and soybean oil.

Because bio diesel emits less particulate matter than diesel, interest is growing in

using the fuel where workers are exposed to diesel exhaust, in school buses, and in

public transportation.



Although vehicles can run on 100% bio diesel with some fuel system modifications

and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 90% compared to regular

diesel, depending on quality of the bio diesel (GTZ, 2006). A blend of 20% bio diesel

and 80% petroleum diesel (called B20) is more common because it can fuel a diesel

engine with minimal modifications (APECC, 2006).

- Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)

Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a mixture of hydrocarbons, mainly methane, found

in gas wells or produced in conjunction with crude oil, natural gas. CNG is a

transportation fuel that is appealing because it is a more efficient fuel than gasoline, is

less carbon intensive, and burns much cleaner (WRI, 2005). CNG is a domestically

produced fuel that generates significantly less CO, CO2, particulate matter, and NOX

than similar fossil fuel vehicles. It is used in vehicles as compressed natural gas

(CNG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG). Nearly one of every five new transit buses

produced for domestic use runs on natural gas14. Estimates of the performance of

CNG vehicles are a 25% reduction in carbon dioxide, 90-97% reduction in carbon

monoxide, and 35-60% reduction in nitrogen dioxide as compared to a gasoline

equivalent.

14 According to the Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition, more than 110,000 natural gas vehicles are on U.S. roads today and more than 1.5 million are in use worldwide.

CASE STUDY REVIEW:

USE OF COCONUT OIL TO FUEL TRANSPORT The government of Fiji explored the opportunities for the development of a bio-diesel refinery. It

considered four key topics: the use of coconut oil and or coconut- derived fuels for power

generation in large diesel gensets. The results of the study suggest that coconut oil should not be

used simply as a fuel additive in refineries, because it is likely to cause corrosion and other

problems. However, the study points out that vegetable methyl ester (VME), a fuel made from

coconut oil in combination with other vegetable oils, could possibly used as a fuel additive with

very positive results.

With respect to the use of coconut- based fuels for transport and for small gensets, the study points

out the problems encountered with attempts to utilize coconut oil-based fuels for these purposes in

the Philippines. It recommends that the government of Fiji conduct more extensive evaluations of

coconut oil-based fuel use for these purposes.

Source: GSEII (2005)



-Propane

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), commonly called propane, consists mainly of

propane, propylene, butane, and butylene in various mixtures. It is a by-product of

natural gas processing, and petroleum refining. Propane has been used around the

world in both light- and medium-duty applications since the 1920s. A propane-

powered vehicle emits fewer reactive organic compounds, less NOX, and less CO

than a similar gasoline vehicle. LPG is the most publicly accessible alternative fuel

and more than 500,000 vehicles are travelling the America using propane (California

Energy Commission, 2007).

In Maldives LPG is also used in industries such as sea water desalination, cement and

LPG bottling industry in Thilafushi (island near the capital Male’). Most urban

households use LPG and kerosene for cooking. In the outer islands, the main source

of energy for domestic purposes has been biomass. Nowadays, more outer island

households are now using kerosene and LPG for cooking instead of biomass materials

(shrubs and coconut husks).

- Electricity

Various types of batteries and other energy storage mechanisms are used to store the

electricity that powers an electric vehicle (EV). Although the electricity production

process may make a small contribution to air pollution, an EV itself does not,

resulting in much lower emissions per mile travelled.

- Hydrogen

Hydrogen has considerable potential as an alternative fuel for transportation, but at

this point it has little market presence. Hydrogen can be mixed with gasoline, ethanol,

methanol, or natural gas, effectively lowering emissions. Perhaps more significantly,

hydrogen is hoped to power electric fuel cell vehicles in the future.

Producing hydrogen from fossil fuels (the most economical method today) would

generate substantial GHG emissions unless the carbon were captured and sequestered.

When produced from renewable energy sources or nuclear energy, the use of

hydrogen can result in nearly zero carbon emissions.



- Methanol

Methanol is alcohol-based fuel, which is usually produced from natural gas. Because

auto manufacturers are not currently producing methanol-fuelled vehicles, its market

presence is minimal. Methanol-powered vehicles emit smaller amounts of air

pollutants, such as hydrocarbons, particulate matter, and NOX, than their gasoline

counterparts (Bioenergy, 2007).

- P-Series Fuel

P-Series is a relatively new alternative fuel that is a blend of ethanol,

methyltetrahydrofuran (MTHF), and pentane (with butane added for blends used in

severe cold weather). Both the ethanol and the MTHF can be produced from

renewable biomass resources, so net emissions from producing and using P-Series are

substantially less than those from gasoline.

- Fuel Cells

Fuel cells are a promising new energy technology under development today. A fuel

cell is a device that chemically combines hydrogen and oxygen to provide electrical

energy without combustion. The fuel cells in use or planned for power plant and

building applications are: phosphoric acid fuel cells (PAFCs), molten carbonate fuel

cells (MCFCs), proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells, and solid oxide fuel

cells (SOFCs). A fifth type, the direct methanol fuel cell, is being developed and

tested for transportation applications, to be used with PEM fuel cells, PAFCs, and

SOFCs (States and local climate change program, 2000).

Fuel cells have tremendous potential, but only if their fuel source provides the best

options for carbon dioxide reductions (Suzuki Foundation, 2007). Fuel cells produce

electricity much like batteries do, but fuel cells require a steady supply of a hydrogen-

rich fuel such as natural gas. Fuel cells can be used to produce electricity, heat, and

hot water with high efficiency, exceptionally low emissions, and low noise. When

used to generate combined heat and power, or when running on hydrogen produced

without the use of fossil fuels, fuel cells can reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions

by 40 to 100 percent compared with conventional power plants or engines. While fuel

cells are touted as the pollution-free power source for automobiles, some fuel cell



processes (i.e. those that use fossil fuels to produce hydrogen) result in greenhouse

gas emissions.

Technological advances in fuel cells, hydrogen production, and hydrogen storage are

needed to accomplish a transition to a largely hydrogen-powered transportation

system. Such a transition will also require intensive planning, major commitments by

government, industry, and the public, and supportive public policies. If achieved,

however, a transition to hydrogen produced from renewable or nuclear energy or from

fossil resources with carbon sequestration, could eliminate most of transportation’s

GHG emissions sometime after 2030 (Greene D.L and Schafer, 2003).



4.3.3 PROMOTE USE OF ALTERNATIVE LEAN BURN ENGINE

CONFIGURATIONS FOR VEHICLES

The amount of pollutants emitted by an engine depends not only on the quality of fuel

but also on how efficiently that the fuel is burnt. Lean burn engines, for example,

achieve better combustions by ensuring that air and fuel are mixed in the right

proportion in the combustions chamber of an engine. Types of alternative engines are:

- Gasoline Direct Injection

As the name implies, fuel in a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine is injected

directly into the combustion chamber. The main advantage of this technology is that it

enables lean operation of the engine, reducing fuel consumption by up to 15%

compared to a conventional engine.

- Sequential Spark Ignition

Sequential spark ignition engines offer another option for controlling the combustion

process. With this technology, each cylinder incorporates 2 ignition plugs in a

diagonal layout; one near the intake valve and the other near the exhaust valve. The

spark plugs ignite the high swirl gas/air mixture at different places, optimizing the

combustion. The ignition timing between these plugs also varies depending on the

driving conditions. Due to this rapid, high pressure, and more complete combustion,

an increase in torque can be realized as well as a decrease in hydrocarbon emissions.

A 10% to 15% increase in fuel efficiency is possible with this technology.

- Variable Valve Timing and Lift

This technology utilizes advanced electronic, hydraulic, pneumatic and mechanical

means to vary the intake and exhaust valve timing and lift of an engine. This enables

the volumetric efficiency of the engine to be optimized while meeting the torque and

horsepower demands of the driver. This can often be accomplished with a smaller

engine. Most recent developments of this technology have permitted the elimination

of the traditional intake throttle on gasoline engines. Fuel consumption improvements

of 6% to 8% are possible.



- Cylinder Deactivation

The advent of more advanced computers and engine management systems and

controls has made cylinder deactivation a more attractive option for both diesel and

gasoline engines. The deactivation is accomplished by closing the intake and exhaust

valves of the target cylinders using electronically controlled hydraulic, pneumatic or

electric actuators. This means that an eight-cylinder engine could be operated on six

or four cylinders at times of light power demand. The transition from 8 to 6 or 4

cylinders and back would be seamless to the driver. Fuel consumption could be

reduced by 7% to 10%.

- Variable Displacement

Variable displacement differs a little from cylinder deactivation. This process involves

changing the swept volume of the engine without changing the number of operational

cylinders. This can be achieved by modifying the stroke of each cylinder through the

use of a pivoted lever arm attached at the crankshaft. This produces an elliptical path

for the connecting rod big end and modifies the stroke compared to a conventional

engine. Manufacturers of these engines have claimed a 40% cut in fuel consumption;

however, no commercial models are yet available for passenger vehicle applications.

- Variable Compression Ratios

Variable compression ratio engines are able to modify the compression ratio, as a

function of the vehicle performance needs. The variable compression ratio engines are

optimized for the full range of driving conditions, such as acceleration, speed, and

load. At low power levels, these engines operate at high compression to deliver fuel

efficiency benefits, while at high power levels; the compression ratio is lowered to

prevent knocking. Near-future engines are being designed with compression ratios

ranging from 9.6:1 to 21:1. Improvements in fuel consumption of up to 30% are

claimed.

- Idle Stop

Idle Stop technology shuts off the engine during periods of idle when it is not

necessary to have the engine running and restarts the engine when there is a power

demand. This feature is particularly useful in city traffic where lots of stop-and-go

driving is typical. The idle stop feature can reduce overall fuel consumption by 6% to



8%. This technology is most effective with large capacity starter/generators as found

on today’s hybrid vehicles but also works with conventional starter motors.

- Advanced Transmissions

The most common transmission types in Canada for light vehicles are the four-speed

automatic and the five-speed manual transmission. For the 2002 model year, about

67% of passenger cars were equipped with 4-speed automatics and 25% with 5-speed

manuals. For light trucks the statistics were 80% with 4-speed automatics and 6%

with 5-speed manuals. Adding more gears to either of these transmission types

improves fuel consumption performance. Adding an infinite number of gears, as is

done with a continuously variable transmission (CVT), is another approach. CVTs can

reduce vehicle emissions and fuel consumption by better matching vehicle operational

demands with engine output. In many cases, engines can be downsized without

degrading vehicle performance. A new twist on the traditional manual transmission

has been to take clutch operation duties away from the driver and turn them over to

the vehicle on-board computers and electro-hydraulic systems.

- Supercharging and Turbo-charging

The output of an internal combustion engine is proportional to the amount of fuel it

can burn. To completely burn fuel, the engine requires 14.7 parts air to 1 part fuel.

Since fuel can easily be pressurized and forced into the combustion chamber, an

engine’s output is extremely dependent on its ability to flow large quantities of air in a

short amount of time. In conventional engines, the piston's movement to the bottom of

the cylinder creates a vacuum, drawing in air. Superchargers and turbochargers are

forced induction systems that incorporate compressors to force more air into an

engine. More air means that more fuel can be burned producing more power.

Superchargers are typically driven off an engine's crankshaft and produce boost in

direct relation to engine speed. Turbochargers are driven by waste heat and pressure

in the exhaust gas exiting the combustion chamber.

By using superchargers and turbochargers, engines can be downsized without loss of

output. This can yield fuel savings of 10%. Aggressive driving will significantly

reduce the savings or eliminate them altogether.



4.3.4 USE OF ENERGY EFFICIENT VEHICLES TECHNOLOGY TO

PROMOTE GREEN TRAVEL PLANS AND LOW EMISSION ZONES

Transportation offers huge opportunities for advancement. Using the “Activity-

Structure-Intensity-Fuel (ASIF)” analytical framework carpooling and the use of

energy-efficient vehicles are encouraged through incentives/disincentives (e.g.:

offering parking lots near office buildings to those who use these transport methods)

is one strategy that will reduce GHG emissions (Focus on Development Policy 2006,

UNHabitat). Many new vehicle technologies also contribute to improvements in GHG

emissions; reducing vehicle weight and aerodynamic drag with new structure design

and materials, smaller engines, light-duty hybrids, low rolling-resistance tires, low

friction lubricants, idle-stop features and advanced air conditioning technology are all

leading to improvements.

The limits to the higher fuel economy performance of light duty vehicles in some

countries are currently defined by the restricted acceptance amongst consumers of the

smaller, lighter cars. Long-term innovations are envisaged for hybrid heavy-duty

vehicles, alternative fuels and the use of hydrogen fuel cells that will achieve

important improvements in per-vehicle GHG emissions (ADB, 2006).

Available options for new technology based vehicles are: (i) Hybrid Electric Vehicles

(HEVs), (ii) Diesel Engines, (iii) Mini-cars, (iv) Electric-drive Vehicles (including

battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs),

which are briefly highlighted below:

- Battery Electric-drive Vehicles (BEVs)

The present electric cars in development are expensive (both in original price and

operation cost) relative to petrol cars, but the gap between the two is narrowing. In

addition, if one considers the environmental cost of internal combustion engines, in

terms of air quality and noise effects, especially in a confined area such as the islands

of Maldives, it is easier to justify consideration of the electric option in the long run.

Battery Electric vehicles (BEVs) tend to have lower overall primary energy

requirements per kilometre than gasoline cars of the same size, depending on primary

energy sources. Electric-drive vehicle may not perform as fast as conventional



gasoline cars, thus indirectly contributing to energy savings. However, current, purely

battery electric vehicle (including battery powered bicycles) are generally only

suitable for travelling short distances due to limitations on energy storage (battery)

capacity. Technologies such as smart cards are used to unlock the BEVs and also to

maintain a log its activities for security reasons.

- Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)

A hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) combines an electric drive with a down-sized internal

combustion engine. HEVs consume less energy by regenerating energy while braking,

using smaller engines, allowing the engine to run at its optimal efficiency through

computer control, and allowing the engine to be turned off during stops, braking, and

coasting. Depending on driving conditions and specifics of hybrid technologies (see

figure 4.6), HEVs can achieve fuel efficiency gains of 25% or higher than

comparable, gasoline-powered vehicles.

FIGURE 4.5 HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES

- Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs).

Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) are electric vehicles whose electricity power source comes

from a hydrogen fuel cell. Although a large amount of effort has gone into research

and development of fuel-cell vehicles in developed countries, there are still important

technical hurdles to be overcome including a cheap and reliable source of hydrogen

fuel, the safe and convenient on-board storage of hydrogen gas, and the creation of a

hydrogen re-fuelling infrastructure. When using pure hydrogen produced through

electrolysis by renewable or nuclear energy technologies, fuel cells generate no direct

CO2 emissions15.

15 States and local climate change program (2000), Fuel cells, Climate change Technologies, January



- Direct-injection lean-burn diesel engines

Direct-injection lean-burn diesel engines generally offer an approximate 20-25%

efficiency gain when compared to a similar gasoline engine. However, diesel engines

are inherently more polluting, particularly for the criteria pollutants NOx and PM10.

Therefore, while pushing widespread diesel use can improve vehicle fleet energy

efficiency, it can also lead to greater air pollution, especially in congested urban areas.

Though technologies do exist for retrofitting diesel engines to decrease the criteria

pollutant emissions, these technologies are more expensive and generally require the

use of clean, low-sulphur diesel fuel. For this reason, there has been a marked split in

dieselization implementation in developed countries are availability (APECC, 2006).

- Mini-cars

Mini-cars generally weigh less than 800kg and have an engine displacement below

800cc. As such, they are ideal for space-constrained and energy conscious urban

settings. Typical fuel efficiencies achieved by mini-cars are approximately 40-60mpg

on par with current HEV technologies (Wright and Fulton, 2005). However, mini-cars

carry with them none of the increased cost of the HEV technology and therefore, from

a price perspective, are likely to penetrate the Maldivian market more easily than

HEVs. One primary reason mini-cars have not gained significant headway into

developed automobile markets is that, in areas where the per capita automobile

ownership rate is already high, expectations about how a car should look and feel are

already highly developed. Perceptions on vehicle safety have also suppressed the use

of mini-cars in developed countries. Table 4.2 provides a summary of technology/

alternative fuel options stipulated above.



TECHNOLOGY/

FUEL ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES GHG/ ENERGY

SAVINGS SUPPORTING POLICIES

REQUIRED

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT

OPPORTUNITIES

Hybrid electric vehicles

Technology mature, precedent in US

and Japan Increase cost

> 25% improvement over petrol

Fiscal policies to reduce cost, green procurement

policies, mandates or targets for market

penetration

Assistance to develop local capacity and technology,

manufacturing improvement to bring cost

down

Diesel Engines Technology mature, strong precedent in

EU

Increased pollution requires significant investment to create low sulphur diesel.

Diesel supply is limited

20-25% improvement over petrol

Subsidies to promote diesel fuel, develop ultra

low sulphur diesel (ULSD) fuel

Engine retrofit solutions for pollution control.

Investment is refining low-sulphur diesel

Mini-cars Technology mature,

cheaper can help alleviate congestion

Contrast with traditional image of

passenger car, concerns about

safety

30% improvement over standard-size vehicles

Market mandates, green procurement policies,

traffic or parking policies to encourage urban use

Bringing existing models and technology to Chinese

market

Electric vehicles

Significant urban air pollution improvement

Increase cost concerns about

battery life, short driving range

Depends on efficiency of power plan,

probably significant

Similar to mini-cars plus technical mandates and

support

Bringing existing models and technology,

transferring technology, manufacturing, assisting in

technical development

Fuel cell vehicles

Significant urban air pollution improvement

Increased cost technology far from mature, supporting

infrastructure required

Significant potential, but will depend

on the source of hydrogen

fuel

Research and development investment, continued pilot studies

Research and development technology transfer

TABLE 4.3 SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVE VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY AND FUEL OPTIONS FOR MALDIVES



CNG Air pollution improvement,

Some GHG saving

Cost required to convert vehicles

and develop delivery

infrastructure, limited supply

Up to 25% Fiscal policies to convert

engines, green procurement policies

Engine retrofitting

Ethanol

Air pollution improvement,

improved energy security, precedent in US and Brazil

Limited on blending unless

vehicles are converted.

Concerns regarding food security

Depends on feedstock and blending ratio,

can be 30-70%

Some subsidies exist already, need further assistance to alleviate

food security concerns, alternative fuel mandates

Technology development capacity, development

consulting

Bio-diesel

Air pollution improvement,

promotes energy security, precedent in EU, waste grease

and oil can be recaptures

Concerns about food security,

requires blending with limited

petroleum based diesel supply

Depends on feedstock and blending ratio,

can be 30-90%

Subsidies, fuel quality standards, alternative fuel mandates, ultimately may require passenger vehicle

dieselization

Technology development capacity, development

consulting

Source: APECC (2006),



4.3.5 PROMOTE USE OF ALTERNATIVE FUEL AND ENGINE

CONFIGURATIONS IN MARITIME TRANSPORT

Emissions from ships also contribute to global warming. An estimate of radioactive

forcing due to CO2 emissions from ships indicates that ships may account for 1.8 per

cent of the global. Moreover, according to a study made for the IMO Marine

Environment Protection Committee, the radioactive forcing resulting from increased

levels of ground-level ozone due to NOx from international shipping “are highly

likely to produce positive forcing effects that will contribute to global warming and

that could be in the same range as (or larger than) direct forcing from CO2”

(Henningsen, 2000). Ozone is also associated with climate change, as is black carbon,

one of the constituents of PM emitted by ships (IPCC, 2001b). Emissions from

shipping contribute significantly to the concentrations and fallout of harmful air

pollutants. There are however technical means by which these pollutants could be cut

by as much as 80-90 percent, and very cost-effectively compared with what would

have to be done to achieve similar results by taking further measures on land-based

sources (EEB, 2004).

Maritime shipping in the Maldivian territorial waters is expected to grow between 70

to 100 per cent between 2005 and 2015. In order to prevent economic growth from

having adverse effects on the natural environment, further measures to reduce

emissions from shipping are urgently needed. Maritime transport differs from road

transport by having much higher infrastructural costs (for developing harbours, break

waters etc. for each inhabited island). The idea is to try to develop a regime that

internalises the social costs of sea transport in a similar way to what has been

proposed for road transport. A distance-related en-route charge proves feasible it

should be possible to extend the scheme to additional pollutants or hazards.



- Nox Reduction measures from maritime transport

A larger variety of Nox reduction measures available, which are classified as engine

modifications, pre-engine technologies and after-treatment technologies. Engines

modifications such as engine de-rating, injection timing retard, fuel injector upgrades,

etc., have been reported to reduce Nox by 15-20%, but may have the disadvantage of

increasing PM emissions and fuel consumption (Fischbeck and Farrow 2002, Naval

Engineers Journal 2002, Corbett and Fischbeck 2001).

A further opportunity exists to reduce emissions from ships at berth. Ships at dock

operate either their auxiliary or main engines to meet their electrical and power needs.

These hostelling emissions can be substantial, even if they are produced by

auxiliary engines running on cleaner distillate fuel (rather than HFO). These

emissions can be reduced through the use of shore-side electrical power, often

called “cold ironing”. In areas such as California, where the local shore side power is

generated by relatively clean sources, cold ironing can reduce emissions by up

to 90% or more (New England Governors 2001, FEI 2005)

NOX emissions from ships cause acid depositions that can be detrimental to the

natural environment and also contribute to eutrophication. Shipping is among the

largest contributors to NOX deposition in certain parts of the world. NOX also

contributes to the formation of ground level ozone, which are a major health hazard as

well as a very important greenhouse gas. The average sulphur content of marine HFO

(so-called bunker fuel) is now between 2.5 and 3 per cent. Cost difference between

High-sulphur marine HFO and low sulphur HFO is minimal (Beicip-Franlab 2002,

NTM, 2007)16.

16 Emissions are average for Cargo vessel: bunker oil with and average sulphur content of 2.6 per cent, no cleaning of NOx. Source: www.ntm.a.se.



- Water injection and water emulsion.

Water is injected into the combustion chamber or mixed with the fuel in order to

lower the temperature of combustion and hence reduce Nox formation. The potential

for emission reduction is at most around 50 per cent, but at the cost of increased fuel

consumption (Kågeson, 1999). The installation cost is however lower than for either

of the following methods.

- Humid Air Motor (HAM)

A technique for preventing the formation of Nox during combustion by adding water

vapour to the combustion air. Performance is unaffected either by the quality of the

bunker oil or by engine workload. By reducing the consumption of fuel and

lubricating oil, HAM has the advantage of lowering operating costs instead of

increasing them. The method is able to reduce Nox by 70-80 per cent (Kågeson,

1999).

-Lower Sulphur distillate fuels

The most common classes of marine fuels are heavy fuel oil, sometimes called bunker

fuel, or residual or heavy fuel oil (HFO), and the lighter marine distillates. HFO is

most often used to fuel the main engines of large ocean-going vessels, while

distillates are used to fuel smaller coastal vessels and harborcraft, as well as the

auxiliary engines of ocean-going vessels that are typically operated when

manoeuvring or lying in port. The global average sulphur content of HFO is about

2.7% while distillate fuels used by ocean-going ships generally exceed 1% sulphur.

One of the most important initial actions that can be immediately taken to reduce

shipping emissions is to lower substantially the sulphur level in marine fuels.

Because SO2 emissions are directly proportional to the sulphur content of the fuel

combusted, reducing the sulphur content of fuel will produce immediate reductions of

SO2. For instance, reducing the sulphur level of marine fuel used by ocean-going

ships from the current average of 2.7% to 0.5% would reduce SO2 emissions from

those ships by about 80%.



The highest portion of PM from large marine diesels operating on HFO is from ash,

metals, oxides and sulphates (about 65% on a medium-speed engine). As a result,

sulphur fuel reductions will also reduce sulphate formation and therefore PM

emissions (by about 40%). Finally, deep cuts in sulphur fuel content will permit

additional and dramatic reductions of Knox and PM from both new and existing

engines using certain after-treatment emission control devices that do not work as

effectively in the presence of high sulphur levels.



CHAPTER FIVE

ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR

IMPLEMENTATION OF HARD AND SOFT GHG

MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES

Adaptation options that shall foster sustainable development in low-lying islands of

the Maldives, which have been identified as especially vulnerable, are limited and

response measures to climate change or its adverse impact are potentially very costly.

Adaptation in this chapter covers two main types of activities. The first being actual

physical adaptive measures and secondly to enhance capacity to adapt in the

Maldives. Currently the Maldives lacks the capacity both technically and financially

to undertake actual adaptive measures such as public awareness and education

(MHAHE, 2001).

5.1 PROMOTE PUBLIC AWARENESS

Public education and information are powerful and important tools to sway the

vehicle market by creating mental connections between environmental externalities

and particular sizes, kinds, or models of vehicle. Public information and education

programs can help to successfully communicate benefits of pedestrian friendly road

networks, public transport, and cleaner low-cost transport alternatives for public and

help markets to function more effectively. This is important as the private sector must

be involved in the mitigation of climate change. Involvement of private sector may

lead to significant voluntary efforts to curb emissions as they understand the dangers

of GHG emissions to climate change with the increasing levels of transport related air

pollution dispersed to the atmosphere.



5.2 PROMOTE DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT

In “Demand-side management”, transport planners seek to check demand instead of

affecting supply. Demand-side management in the context of transport in cities (such

as Male’) includes such measurers as staggered working hours and staggered weekly

off days, providing alternative means of transport, promoting safer and high-quality

services to transport schoolchildren etc. In broader terms, demand-side, management

is all about analyzing what makes people travel in the first place, what factors

influence transport choices of people, and the basis on which they choose one “mode”

of transport over the others, instead of simply estimating travel requirements and then

providing for them.

Greater dependency on private vehicles creates a vicious cycle whereby the streets

become more dangerous. As the cycle progresses from generation to generation,

people develop new car-based cognitive maps of their surroundings, further

reinforcing the inevitability use of car. An important policy objective would be to help

children and young adults develop new cognitive maps of their world based on a

number of different transport modes, which would necessarily allow children to

experience non-car-based mobility”.

The increased use of vehicles in Male’ is causing not only congestion on the narrow

street system but is deteriorating the urban air quality as well (MPND & UNDP

1998). Therefore it is logical to give priority in development of public transport over

the modes of transport as they carry more passengers in the effort to make streets safer

for cyclists and pedestrians, which can effect substantial saving in the use of petrol

and diesel, thereby reducing both pollution and traffic congestion.

Travelling to school ranks (in other words work related travel next to travelling to

place of work as the most common purpose of travel in Male’ as parents’ fear of

traffic accidents or public transport not arriving on time affect the modal choice

whether schoolchildren use public transport (including school buses) or are ferried by

their parents in cars of on motorcycles etc. Thus can have a substantial impact on the

transport scenario in urban areas such as Male’.



As the extent of important environmental impacts such as climate change, noise and

landscape fragmentation are closely linked to transport volumes, addressing them

requires the management of transport demand. By reducing the need to travel in the

first place – by relocating offices etc. by enduring that newer cities are better planned,

by encouraging “telecommuting” and so on – or by providing such alternative means

of transport as public mini buses, the total number of kilometres covered by a given

fleet of vehicles can be drastically reduced.

- Telecommuting to work

Telecommuting, which allows people to work from home instead of in an office, is

another of the futuristic technology that have a bearing on city traffic, at least in

theory. In practice, it is a question of traffic patterns: cities in which the “white collar”

workforce is significant and trade, services, and the knowledge-industry” are major

activities that stand to gain more from telecommuting that those with predominantly

“blue collar” workforce in which manufacturing is the major industry.

5.3 PROMOTE INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING AND CAPACITY

BUILDING

Strengthening the institutional and capacity building is an essential requirement for

the successful implementation of the adaptation strategies. This includes

strengthening the legal institutional and administrative arrangements of transport

agencies. Furthermore this includes human resources capacity development to

regulate, implement and enforce clean transport and low-emissions technology in the

country, and strengthen data collection and monitor emissions levels.

5.4 PROMOTE PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION

Private investment flow makes between 60-70% of Gross Domestic Investment (GDI)

in developing countries. Even though the private investment is far too low in most

developing countries it is still of utmost importance. It is also important that these

private investment flows continue to contribute to the sustainable development of the

developing countries by considering the UNFCCC objectives (UNFCCC 2005,

UNFCCC 2000).



Most of the investment in the transport sector and many of the actions required to

reduce the climate change effects of on-road and off-road transport will be made by

the private sector. Thus, it is essential that a clear long-term signal be given for the

way forward, with predictable and transparent regulations and policies. It is

paramount to provide legal security to the investments by private sector on clean

technologies and provide legal right to trade their carbon credit point in the carbon

training platforms. Such that the private sector will be in a position to invest and act in

a timely manner and to the required extent, which will foster sustainable nation’s

development of Maldives.

Although private sector must stay within the rules and regulations set by government,

this is not their only role. They must be given incentive to continually research and

create alternatives to the harmful technologies and products/services currently on the

market. A profitable approach that the private sector should use is the creation of

business opportunities that promote sustainable urban development and the use of

technologies/products/services that reduce their impacts and save them money.

Partnering with the public sector will make the transition to sustainable business

practices much easier and more successful.

5.5 PROMOTE LAND-USE PLANNING AND TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

SCHEMES

No matter how successful the transport policies are it is virtually impossible to

completely cut total travel of motorized vehicles. Therefore it’s imperative to find

ways to make travel less polluting. Good land-use planning traffic management (e.g.

disciplined parking, synchronized traffic lights, and priority for buses) in the key to

managing travel demand. Use road space equitably to focus more on moving people,

not vehicles, more efficiently.

Effective land use planning gives priority to space efficient and eco-friendly vehicles

modes and public transport. Furthermore it provides safer roads for pedestrian

activities, especially for children and elderly who cannot use motor vehicles, re-design

roads that provide physical designs to control vehicle speed and as a place of

community social interactions (see figure 5.1 below). Roads should be redesigned to

accommodate mini buses and provide fast travel. Operating a bus service without



redesign would not yield the desired results. Effective land-use planning eliminate

congestion by introducing traffic management and traffic calming measures such as

moving parking to multi-storey garages and limit on-street parking.

At present transportation is not well organized with any systematic and planned public

transport (both in Malé and outer atolls). As a result usage of privately owned cars

and motorbikes, demand for fossil fuel (Maldives Country Paper 2004), cost of

transport air pollution and traffic congestions has increased drastically over the years.

FIGURE 5.1

Source: MTC, 2007



- Pedestrian friendly roads

The current road network is predominantly for cars, but parking limitation acts as a

self-regulator for new imports. However, motor cycles seems exempted from this

limitation. Due to limited road space, a large amount of road capacity used for vehicle

parking. Male’ has flat demand patterns. Therefore peak period congestion should not

exist. But heavy on street parking, lack of sufficient pedestrian facilities and poor

traffic circulation systems result in congestion on several links and nodes. Rapid

increase in population (due to migration, expatriate workers and natural growth) &

income will result in motorcycle fleet on Male’ increasing by 200% in the next 15

years. It is essential to move parking away from streets in order to make more road

space. Otherwise less space will be available for walking and moving or even stand

MTC, 2007).

FIGURE 5.2



5.6 PROMOTE SUPPORT OF GOVERNMENT OF MALDIVES THROUGH

POLICIES, STRATEGIES, REGULATIONS, STANDARDS AND

ENFORCEMENT INITIATIVES

Polluted air by GHG emission is a symptom, not a cause of absence of coherent,

integrated transport policies of government. The continued growth of carbon

emissions from transport remains one of the most serious environmental problems,

and the government’s commitment to sustainable development will be called into

question unless it takes steps to confront this issue17. The overall success of policies

therefore still hinges on limiting (growth in) transport volumes (European

environment agency, 2007). This report has largely addressed the comparison of

technology-based solutions with behavioural (mode-shifting) solutions.

Policy measures represent another potential means for achieving greenhouse gas

emission reductions from the transport sector. A large number of old reconditioned

vehicles were imported to the country because these were available cheaply within the

region. From 1990, the import of motorcycles has increased to an average of 51%.

The rapid increase of vehicles has induces the traffic problem in Malé. As a means of

reducing the traffic problem and improving the air quality in Male’, the government

banned the importing of reconditioned motorcycles which have engine capacity of les

that 150cm3 into the country, from December 2000 (MTCA Directive No. 9-

B4/2000/94).

5.6.1 NATIONAL POLICIES FOR LAND AND MARITIME SECTOR.

Policy actions include measures to promote fuel efficient vehicles- the manufacture of

light weight sub compact vehicles, research support for increasing fuel efficiency and

development of alternative fuels vehicles- and improve overall efficiency through the

development of an environmentally friendly transportation and distribution

infrastructure.

The government plans to tighten automobile fuel efficiency standards to stimulate

technology development. It provides R&D funds to private automobile makers and

research institutions for technology to improve fuel efficiency and develop low/ zero 17 Steps in other countries such as UK. Source: Road block, Briefing on road transport and climate change, www.roadblock.org.uk



emission vehicles. The government also provides funds for deployment of the

compressed natural gas CNG) bus—both the purchase of buses and installation of

CNG distribution networks.

The increased use of cars in Male is causing a similar problem and under the above

mentioned regulations there is a ban on importing of cars which are more than 5 years

old into the country (MTCA Directive no. 9-B4/2000/94).

TABLE 5.1: REGISTRATION AGE

Vehicle Maximum age for registration

Pick-up/ cars 5 years

Motor cycles (below 150 CC) New

Motor cycles above 150 CC) 3 years

Lorries for male Use 7 years

Lorries and construction vehicles 15 years*

* Exemption given until 2011

Importing new vehicles would have the potential to reduce the emission of GHGs

from the transport sector, as the efficiency of the imported vehicles would be better

that the old reconditioned vehicles (MTC, 2007b). See table 5.1 for age structure.

Briefs of other pertinent policies are presented below to attain the strategic direction

of Maldives:

- 7th National Developments Plan (7th NDP, 2006-2010)

The broad national development objective upon which the 7th NDP is based includes

the following elements: Develop a sustainable and cost-effective transportation and

telecommunication infrastructure to facilitate economic social and regional

development (7th NDP, 2007).

The 7NDP lays down the development policies and strategies of the Government for

the period 2006 to 2010. All the policies and strategies in the 7NDP are targeted at

improving the quality of life for the people living in the Maldives, particularly the

poor, the disadvantaged and the vulnerable groups. The specific goals of the 7NDP



are (i) Eliminate extreme poverty, increase equity and promote gender equality, (ii) A

stronger diversified economy (iii) Improved access and expanded opportunity, (iv)

Better, effective and affordable education and health care (v) Stronger families and

communities (vi) Protecting the environment and making people and property safer

(vii) Promote justice, human rights and good governance (NAPA, 2006).

The land and Sea transport Road Map of the draft 7th NDP (policy 1, strategy 1.3)

notes “harbour charges between Malé North Harbour and Malé South Harbour shall

be harmonized as a first measure to relive the congestion and to introduce economic

pricing. Moderate fee structure at both North and Villingili harbour will bring about

harmonized use of all harbours.

- The Domestic Transport Act Of 1978

In the improvement of domestic transport management, The Domestic Transport Act

of 1978 States that the regulating authority for domestic maritime transport is the

Ministry of Transport and Communication (MTC). Whist responsibility for

implementing maritime regulations is extended to MNDF-coast Guard and the

Ministry of Atoll Development (MOAD), the responsibility for formulating regulation

rests with the MTC (TMP, 2003).

- Tourism Master Plan (2003)

Tourism Master Plan (2003) identified Transportation sector as a major area that is

most crucial for the tourism industry, which has developed in response to the demands

of the industry. It is identifies in the plan that the limited resources, the small and

dispersed nature of islands hinder transport activities (Tourism Master plan, 2003).

- Strategic Economic Plan (2005)

The strategic thrust clusters includes Ports and Logistics cluster (PLS), primarily to

establish a reliable inter-region and intra-region transportation system to support the

development of core economic clusters in Maldives and to extend the role of the

commercial ports in the South or/and North to complement other ports in South Asia

for Cargo trans-shipment in the long term (Strategic Economic Plan, 2005).



- National Energy Policy (2006), Kyoto Protocol (ratified it in 1998) and the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The Vision of the National energy policy is to ensure the socio-economic

development goals of the country are met through the sustainable supply and use of

energy. Main Energy Policy Goal is underlined in the importance of availability,

reliability accessibility and affordability of energy to fuel the socio-economic

development requirements of the Maldives in a sustainable and environmentally

friendly manner.

Energy Policy Objectives (i) Ensure a continuous and economically viable diversity of

energy supplies to sustain socio-economic development, (ii) Guarantee accessibility

of affordable and reliable energy services to all people, (iii) Enhance national energy

security by promoting indigenously available renewable sources of energy through

removal of implementation barriers and provision of incentives while creating new

jobs and strengthening the economy, (iv) Protect the environment and health of the

people by ensuring environmentally sound energy supply and usage. (v) Establish and

implement the energy conservation and energy efficiency program and institutional

arrangements to achieve optimum economic use of renewable and non-renewable

sources of energy and reduce consumption without lowering the quality of service

rendered, and (v) Ensure transparency of energy sector planning and operations to

attract both national and international investors where appropriate (National Energy

Policy, 2006).

The formulation of the energy policy is also a response to the country’s commitment

to regional co-operation. The current national environmental policies are based on the

need to take an integrated approach to environmental management and to work

towards the goal of sustainable development. Unless immediate measures are put in

place, the trend of continuing vulnerability of the Maldives economy will

continuously increase as the trend of dependence in imported fuels will persist. It is

therefore of prime urgency to deal with the issue, to adopt a comprehensive national

energy policy and to set up the implementing institutional arrangements and programs

to deal with this issue



The Maldives is a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC), having signed the Convention on 12 June 1992

and ratified it on 9 November of the same year. The Maldives played a very

important role within the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the

negotiation process, which began in Berlin and culminated in Kyoto. The

Maldives was the first country to sign the Kyoto Protocol on 16 March 1998

and it ratified the Protocol on 30 December of hat year. UNFCCC (1992)-

article 4 states that

(c) Promote and cooperate in the development, application and diffusion,

including transfer, of technologies, practices and processes that control,

reduce or prevent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases not

controlled by the Montreal Protocol18 in all relevant sectors, including the

energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management

sectors.

The first National Communication of the Maldives to the UNFCCC was

submitted at the 7th

Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC,

held in Marrakech in 2001. Preliminary findings of the National Greenhouse

Gas Inventory, National Mitigation Plan, Vulnerability Assessment, and

Adaptation Options were all included in that communication (Maldives

Partnership Forum, 2007).

- Science and technology Master plan (2001)

Transport, by land, sea and air, will remain a crucial policy concern in Maldives for

the foreseeable future. For improved health care, education, and political and

economic development, Maldives will be dependent on its transport infrastructure. As

new transport technologies develop (increasing speed and capacity and reducing

costs), they will need to be adapted to the Maldivian context. In that way, science and

technology improvements will be applied to improve the welfare of Maldives’

18 The Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer is a landmark international agreement designed to protect eh stratospheric ozone layer. The treaty was originally signed in 1987 and substantially amended in 1990 and 1992. the Montreal proposal stipulates the production and consumption of compounds that deplete ozone in the stratosphere – chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons, Carbon tetrachloride and methyl Chloroform (www.ciesin.columbia.edu)



dispersed population. The plan identifies that science and technology can assist in

improving land, air, and sea transport conditions in Maldives and allow transport to

play an even stronger part in the integration of the nation (Science and technology

Master plan, 2001).

- National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA - 2006),

The goal of the NAPA is to present a coherent framework to climate change

adaptation that enhances the resilience of the natural, human, and social systems and

ensures their sustainability in the face of predicted climate hazards. Synergy with

national development goals is one of the objectives of the NAPA and in the selection

and prioritization of adaptation activities NAPA uses development goals stated in

Vision 2020, Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP) and the Millennium

Development Goals (NAPA, 2006).

- ICT Policy Formulation Project

The formulation of the National ICT policy is currently underway. The national ICT

policy is to ensure the maximization of the potentials of ICT by providing over-

arching policies, incentives and legislative to advance throughout the country, so that

people in the Maldives can have better access to various opportunities in all aspects of

life such as health, education, administration, business, etc. The development of a

national ICT Policy and Strategies will have significant influence over all aspects of

ICT projects in the Maldives. ICT Policy will be the basis for e-government and e-

commerce with supporting legal framework.

The e-government initiative along with initiatives to develop an ICT enabled

community as a cornerstone of its initiatives to narrow the digital divide, delivering a

better quality of life to the people of the Maldives and to bring the facilities, services

and opportunities to its people. With this regard, the government has initiated a

number of projects including the e-government initiative called the Information

Technology Development Project (ITDP) and the Information Communication

Technology (ICT) Policy Formulation Project (Rasheed, 2004)



- Telecommunications Policy 2001 - 2005

The “Maldives Telecommunications Policy 2001 - 2005” is aimed at the development

of Maldives telecom sector towards achieving the targets of 6th National

Development Plan and ultimately the economic and social developmental objectives

envisaged in the Maldives Vision 2020. It would also guide the sector to develop the

info-communication services so that it would link the dispersed communities and

reduce the impact of the geographical isolation and physical separation that exists

between the island communities. The most prominent aspect of the policy, in relation

to the digital divide issues is opening up of the telecommunication market to more

investors.

- Health master plan (1996)

The Government is committed to the goals of Health for All. The Government of

Maldives considers that the enjoyment of the highest attainable level of health is a

basic right of every citizen. Thus the health policy of the Government aims to improve

the health, well being and quality of life of present and future generations by reducing

disease, suffering and disability, and to increase life expectancy further by reducing

preventable deaths such as road accidents (Health Master Plan, 1996).

Elevated particulate levels are implicated in a range of respiratory problems such as

Asthma, allergic respiratory responses, bronchitis and emphysema. The Health Master

Plan identifies outdoor air pollution as a major contributor to respiratory problems in

The Maldives (MoH 1998). The evidence on the health effects of sulphur, and

nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and other pollutants resulting directly from the combustion of

fossil fuels is similarly unclear. Ozone (O3) has been independently associated with

reductions in lung function, increased bronchial reactivity and admissions to hospital.



5.6.2 INTERNATIONAL POLICIES SPECIFIC TO MARITIME SECTOR

International policies specific to mitigate air pollution from Maritime transport are

presented in this subdivision as such international policies specific to land transport

are non existent. The three international conventions that are important with regard to

the right of passage and the abatement of air pollution emissions:

- The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a

universal legal framework for the management of marine resources and their

conservation. It is a result of the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the

Sea that was convened in New York in 1973. It ended nine years later with the

adoption in 1982 of the convention.

Navigational rights, territorial sea limits, economic jurisdiction, legal status of

resources on the seabed beyond the limits of national jurisdiction, passage of ships

through narrow straits, conservation and management of living marine resources,

protection of the marine environment, and a marine research regime are among the

features of the treaty. UNCLOS regulates the right of innocent passage. Part XII of

the convention provides the legal framework for the protection and preservation of the

marine environment. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and MARPOL.

According to the Convention on the International Maritime Organization, among the

main purposes of IMO includes to provide machinery for co-operation among

Governments in the field of governmental regulation and practices relating to

technical matters of all kinds affecting shipping engaged in international trade, and to

encourage the general adoption of the highest practicable standards in matters

concerning maritime safety, efficiency of navigation and prevention and control of

marine pollution from ships.

UNCLOS’ Article 26 states that no charge may be levied upon foreign ships by

reason only of their passage through the territorial sea, and that charges may be levied

upon a foreign ship passing through the territorial sea as payment only for specific

services rendered to the ship. UNCLOS does not limit the right of coastal states to

introduce non-discriminatory charges on voluntary port calls. When designed in this



manner and collected only in the ports of participating States, the introduction of a

distant-related en-route charge is neither conditional on amendments to MARPOL nor

on the approval of non-participating States (Per Kågeson, 2005).

UNCLOS Article 211:4 gives coastal states, in the exercise of their sovereignty within

their territorial sea, the right to “adopt laws and regulations for the prevention,

reduction and control of marine pollution from foreign vessels exercising the right of

innocent passage”. However what is sanctioned for internal waters may not

necessarily be allowed for enforcement on traffic in the economic zone of a coastal

state.

However, Article 211:6(a) provides an opportunity for additional measures in a case

where the international rules and standards mentioned in Article 211:1 are

“inadequate to meet special circumstances and coastal states have reasonable grounds

for believing that a particular, clearly defined area of their respective exclusive

economic zones is an area where the adoption of special mandatory measures for the

prevention of pollution from vessels is required for recognized technical reasons in

relation to its oceanographically and ecological conditions”.

- The International Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution from Ships

MARPOL 73/78

Emissions and discharges from maritime shipping are regulated by IMO’s

International Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution from Ships, 1973 as

modified by the Protocol of 1978 relating thereto (MARPOL 73/78). As the 1973

Convention had not yet entered into force, the 1978 MARPOL Protocol absorbed the

parent Convention. The combined instrument - MARPOL 73/78 - finally entered into

force on 2 October 1983 (for Annexes I and II).

Non-CO2 emissions are particularly governed by the Marpol Annex VI regulations.

Existing environmental regulations under Marpol Annex VI (which contains

provisions on Sulphur Oxide Emission Control Areas and nitrogen oxide emissions

standards for ships' engines) are extremely weak. For example the maximum sulphur

content of fuels is set at 4.5% while the world average for shipping fuel is already



2.7%19. The last revision of Marpol Annex VI was agreed at IMO level in 1997 but

only entered into force in 2005, a delay of eight years for member states to ratify the

new rules. The excessively long time frames and weak ambition levels of international

regulations have led environmental groups to call for urgent action on shipping

pollution at all levels

Globally air pollution from ships is regulated by Annex VI on Regulations for the

Prevention of Air Pollution from Ships, which will enter into force 19 May 2005.

Annex VI covers ozone-depleting substances, nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur oxides

(SOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOC).

The IMO initiative is to reduce NOx emission of about 90% for both existing and new

ships, no later than 2015; reductions in SOx emissions of 70-90% by 2015 and

substantial reductions in particular matter (PM), both through the side-effects of

reducing NOx and SOx, but also by working on specific targets for PM in Marpol

Annex VI (to be adopted no later than 2009).

The environmental scope of the two conventions (i.e. UNCLOS and MARPOL 73/78)

were originally limited to the negative impact on the marine environment of pollution

and accidents. The IMO, however, has in recent years adopted MARPOL’s Annex VI

and a resolution on greenhouse gases. Annex VI introduces SOX emission control

areas, where the adoption of special mandatory measures for SOX emissions from

ships is required in order “to prevent, reduce and control air pollution from SOX and

its attendant adverse impacts on land and sea areas”.

- IMO’ resolution A.963 (23)

In 2003, IMO adopted a resolution A.963(23) on policies and practises related to the

reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from shipping, and in 2004, its Marine

Environment Protection Committee agreed on draft guidelines on a CO2 indexing

scheme. It makes sense that IMO, being the only existing global organisation with

responsibility for shipping, has stretched its mandate to cover emissions that are

harmful to terrestrial ecosystems and human health (IMO, 2005).

19 Sulphur has been virtually eradicated from petrol and diesel fuels used by road vehicles in Europe.



5.6.4 POLICY OPTIONS FOR GOVERNMENT OF MALDIVES

The policy options available to the Government of Maldives to directly and indirectly

reduce GHG emissions from transport sector, which falls in to the following two

fundamental policy categories, which are:

(i) Policies on Transportation Demand Management (TDM) and

reduce need to travel – such policies, and its associated strategies, focus on

encouraging the use of less energy-intensive forms of transportation. These

include promoting public transportation, encouraging people to drive less, and

developing effective sustainable urban planning to minimize transportation

needs. Further to reduce negative externalities such as air pollution, traffic

congestion, and traffic-related injuries

(ii) Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from automotive sector –

such policies, and its associated strategies, focus of improving the energy

efficiency of the vehicle fleet. This includes policy category includes fiscal

policies encouraging people to buy and use more efficient vehicles, more fuel

efficient vehicle technologies, and vehicle fuel economy standards. Furthermore

this category will include policies to replace transportation energy sources with

greenhouse gas minimizing alternative or renewable fuels, such as bio-fuels.

Consumers and businesses acting according to self-interest will not fully consider the

need to reduce GHG emissions when they purchase vehicles and fuels and decide how

much to travel. Economists call this a public good externality, because the costs and

benefits of controlling it are external to market decision-making. If the market does

not fully value reducing GHG emissions, firms will under-invest in research and

development (R&D) to create new, less polluting technologies. Without collective

action to curb public good externalities, market economies will produce excessive

amounts of environmental pollution. A wide variety of policies and measures are

available to governments to correct this problem. Governments can directly invest in

R&D or can partner with industry to accelerate technological progress.

Market forces can be harnessed through emission cap-and-trade programs or by using

fiscal policies (taxes, subsidies, and incentives) to “internalize” the value of reducing

carbon emissions. Regulations, such as fuel economy standards, can be used to



increase the efficiency of energy use or to change the properties of transportation fuels

(House of Commons, 2006). Policy support of the government of Maldives is

paramount for the successful implementation and sustenance of the above mentioned

mitigation and adaptation options provided in this in-depth TNA. Selective policies

are briefly highlighted below:

- Policy on GHG emission indices and standards

Development of a central pollution control board and a policy of GHG emission

indices and standards (and its associated strategies) sets emissions indices

implemented by a central pollution control board. The board can regulate and propose

differentiation formulas for vehicles, vessels (such as NOx reduction methods

stipulated in Chapter 4 of this In-depth TNA), harbours and ports to use in a given

area for a specified period of time. Maldivian Government would require additional

strategies and legal elements to be put into place in order for the policy to be

politically acceptable, implement able and be feasible for the country.

- Policy on Vehicle Demand Management, fleet restriction, alternative fuel and

Public Transport

Policy on vehicle demand management, fleet restriction, alternative fuel and public

transport (and its associated impacts) regulates car-restriction, complementary

measures in supporting public transport and non-motorized transport options,

transport planning studies and data collection, quality and capacity of vehicles. The

policy shall also focus on measure to improve the quality and speed of a commuter

journey, Synchronising office working hours with school studying hours in order to

limit number of trips (and number of traffic jam hours) thereby providing an efficient

alternative to the car.

Such measures should reduce the number of vehicles entering urban areas, leading to

an overall reduction in vehicle emissions (West Yorkshire, 2000). For example, as a

traffic demand management technique the Government may provide some

concessions in start up phase or underwrite risk for efficient public transport bus, ferry

and taxi services in order to encourage the mode shift to Public Transport and reduce

car dependency.



Furthermore the policy regulates land use controls and planning is also another option

used to reduce the use of private motor vehicles. These policies include the restriction

and pricing of parking spaces, the use of pedestrian zones and parks, and land use

zoning strategies which need to be carefully integrated into a public transport system.

For example, it has been found in many large cities that limiting the supply of inner

city parking spaces can be effective at reducing traffic congestion and encouraging the

use of public transport.

The policy should support the introduction of alternative fuel that suits Maldivian

environment and make the use of lead-free petrol mandatory will ideally form a part

of a packaged approach to emission reductions20. Furthermore the policy should limit

loading and unloading heavily vehicles at dedicated times (for example before

6pm).high engine capacity vehicles, the government shall reduce costumes duty for

fuel efficient mini cars, and introduction of solar powered cares, hybrid cars powered

with CNG.

The domestic transport sector development study (phase 1) identified the support by

the public for government interventions for traffic management in Male Urban

Region. See Figure 5.3 below:

20 WRIGHT L and FULTON L (2005), Climate Change Mitigation and Transport in Developing Nations, Transport Reviews, Vol. 25, No. 6, 691–717, November



FIGURE 5.3: SUPPORT OF INTERVENTION PROPOSAL

- Policy on fiscal restraints and import duty of vehicles.

Fiscal policies, including vehicle and fuel taxes as well as road and parking pricing

schemes (such as taxes for importation, parking space requirement, parking fees,

harbour usage), are an important way both to affect manufacturer and consumer

behaviour and to generate revenue to invest in transportation infrastructure. The

policy shall regulate a high import tax was levied on importing recondition vehicles,

primarily as a measure to potentially reduce the demand for vehicles and hence reduce

the growth of GHG emissions from the transport sector. Other fiscal restraints such as

fuel and vehicle taxation will have a less than direct impact on traffic demand (e.g.: a

10% increase in fuel prices may change the litters of fuel sold by less than 6% and

vehicle-kilometres travelled by even less) and thus other measures are required as

well to stem the tide of explosive growth in personal motorization and the

externalities it produces (ADB, 2006).

A fundamental political difficulty in implementing policy on fiscal restraints is that

these would require unanimous agreement by the Government of Maldives.

Moreover, the tax might be subject to challenge on legal grounds under UNCLOS

Article 26, which guarantees innocent right of passage for foreign-flag vessels without

being subject to charges except for services received.

Source: MTC, 2007



-Other Policy Support options

Policy support of the Government of Maldives is required for the following categories

Public Awareness campaigns: to successfully communicate benefits of

pedestrian friendly road networks, public transport and cleaner low-cost

transport alternatives for daily use and to communicate the level of GHG and

air pollution from transport, and dangers of GHG emissions to climate change.

As public awareness grows concerning the level of ship emissions of air

pollution especially compared to land-based sources like cars and trucks and

as awareness grows concerning the public health and environmental damage

caused by these emissions, political pressure on national and local regulators

will become increasingly stronger for steep reductions.

Institutional strengthening and capacity building: to strengthen transport

related institutions and develop human resources capacity to regulate,

implement and enforce clean transport and low-emissions technology in the

country.

Private Sector Participation: to ensure effective private sector participation in

adapting to new low-emission technologies in vehicles and vessel for

sustainable national development. Furthermore to ensure the investments by

vehicle and vessel owners for clean technologies are secured and they have

legal right to trade their carbon credit point in the carbon training platforms.

Fuel quality testing mechanisms: to regulate exhaust emission standards,

establish a specialised inspection authority for emission control and for

mandatory inspection to identify GHG emissions from vehicle and vessel

emissions. Furthermore to ensure higher grade of petrol and diesel imported

and consumed in Maldives.

Policy on data collection and maintenance: The lack of available data and

data management has been identified as one of the main issues when assessing

the vulnerability of the Maldives to climate change. Hence, stringent

procedures for data collection and management (to avoid omissions,

duplication and repetition) needs to be established in all concerned agencies to

provide easy access to required information.

Urban Land-use planning, re-engineer road network, limit over load of

vehicles, re-arrange traffic lights and speed breaks: to re-engineer one-way



roads, synchronise traffic lights and speed breakers in order to reduce number

of trips and limit travel journey time.

Policy on Hybrid cars and battery electric cars: Running a pilot program with

hybrid taxis by offering subsidies for hybrid cars (for example tax exemptions

for green taxis) and fuel taxes to emphasize the benefit of fuel savings. Most

electric vehicles are, in fact, designed specifically to operate over short

distances and at low speeds; this makes them very suitable for the Maldives.

Combining alternative energy generation with electrical vehicles might well be

a project that would attract international support and strengthen the

environmental image of Maldives.

Policy on Fuel economy: to regulate the so-called “rebound effect” which

theorizes that by improving fuel economy of vehicles and vessels, consumers

will be inadvertently encouraged to drive more and thus offset the benefits of

fuel savings promised by improved efficiency. However, empirical research

has shown that this is a small secondary effect with minimum impacts.

Various studies usually put the impacts of rebound effects between zeros to

ten percent of the fuel savings.



5.7 MEASURES TO PROMOTE FUEL-EFFICIENT VEHICLES AROUND

THE WORLD

The following measures are adapted to promote Fuel-efficient vehicles in countries

such as United States, Japan, Australia, China, Taiwan, South Korea and other

countries in the European Union.

TABLE 5.2: MEASURES TO PROMOTE FUEL-EFFICIENT VEHICLES

AROUND THE WORLD

FUEL EFFICIENT

APPROACH MEASURES/FORMS COUNTRY/REGION

Fuel economy standards Numeric standard in mpg, km/L, or

L/100-km

United States, Japan, Canada,

Australia, China, Taiwan,

South Korea

GHG emission standards Grams/km or grams/mile European Union, California

High Fuel taxes Fuel taxes at least 50% greater than

crude oil base price European Union, Japan

Fiscal incentives

Tax relief based on engine size,

efficiency and carbon dioxide

emissions

European Union, Japan

R&D programs Incentive for particular technologies

and alternative fuel

United states, Japan,

European Union

Traffic control measures Hybrid allowed in special lanes, band

on SUVs United States and France

Source: An, Feng and Sauer, Amanda (2004).



5.8 MILESTONES TARGETS

Success may be assessed in the process of technology transfer using the following

milestone targets:

-Milestone target for 2015

Maintain the GHG emissions level less than or equal to 2007 level (exemplified in

chapter 3 of this assessment). This is achievable, however based on:

Use of proven energy efficiency technologies and low-carbon replacement

fuels

levels of efficiency improvement at which the value of the fuel saved is greater

than or equal to the cost of technology

Fiscal and other policies that do not increase the overall cost of transportation.

Establishment of a carbon cap-and-trade system

-Milestone target for 2020

Reduce the GHG emissions level to 2005 level (stipulated in chapter 3 of this

assessment). This is achievable, however based on:

Establishment of GHG emissions control independent authority for time

regulation and systematic monitoring

Efficiency improvements and technological progress with focused R&D

innovation effort by 2015.

Continuation or moderate extensions of pricing and behavioural policies

adopted for 2015.

Timely implementation of stringent energy efficiency standards.

Implementation of a tight carbon emissions cap



5.9 BARRIERS TO TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

A number of barriers hinder the development and implementation of clean

technologies transfer in the Maldives. Among the greatest impediments to the

widespread use of GHG reducing technologies is the limited capacity of key decision

makers and technicians. In addition, utility officials and engineers lack the

information necessary to select, develop, and use GHG reducing technology within

their system. Likewise, gaining technical capacity in the operation and maintenance of

GHG reducing technology would make it much more likely that the systems installed

would be successful and achieve their full potential.

Other barriers for technology transfer includes

Lack of involvement of private sector due to lack of awareness on advantages

of GHG mitigating and adaptation technologies.

Lack of institutional mechanisms to support development, implementation and

management clean technologies.

Lack of financial and economic incentives to the private sector to adapt to

GHG mitigation technology and undertake carbon cap and trade ventures.

Lack of information and essential data of vehicle and vessel usage and

emissions levels.



CHAPTER SIX

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 CONCLUSION

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that due to

anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) attributed to human activity, the

global mean temperature could increase between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100

and the sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 meter between 1990 and 2100.

The focus of international community is tended on technology based strategies,

options or solutions for reducing anthropogenic GHG emissions to foster human or

natural systems to respond to the indeed already occurring and future global warming

consequences.

Maldives is very vulnerable to the associated impacts of climate change, including

sea level rise. The very existence of Maldives is questionable as half of the country

will submerge by 2100 as Maldives has 1 meter at maximum height, should the

projection of IPCC becomes a inconvenient reality. In the past the transport sector has

evolved in an ad hoc manner, without a comprehensive plan or direction. Therefore

public transportation, be it land or sea, is practically non-existent except for some

recent initiatives to link the main island Malé with some neighbouring islands. The

distances between the islands are quite long and people have to depend on water

transport facilities (which are mainly powered by diesel) for moving essential

commodities such as food and fuel, and travel for essential services such as healthcare

between main islands and smaller ones. Hence the establishment of an efficient

integrated transport system (developed under a planned approach) is urgently needed



for sustainable and soco-economic development of the widely dispersed population.

However in 2007, most transport is still contracted on an ad hoc basis.

The hard and soft technology-based options provided in this In-depth TNA are

underpinned by comprehensive local and international literature review, internet

based research, and by qualifiable and quantifiable data attained from focus group

discussions and the awareness raising campaign. The assessment exemplifies key

aspects of road transport in Malé and Atolls, Inter-Island Sea Transport, International

Shipping, Seaports, relevance of air pollution and climate change to transport sector,

environmental cost of air pollution, measurement of GHG transport based inventory,

consumption needs of fossil fuel energy (which Maldives is predominantly an

importer of), and history and forecast of GHG emissions.

In future Maldives shall take full advantage of available GHG mitigation technology

based options and develop a balance high performing and efficient multimodal

transportation system (i.e. combination of land and sea modes of transport) in order to

systematically manage traffic and reduce demand for travel. This shall reduce GHG

emission from transport sector to the atmosphere and hence reduce the vulnerability

of Maldives to adverse effects of climate change, including sea level rise.

6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS

The national and international plans, policies, guidelines, resolutions, codes and

conventions paves a clear cut path to transfer the GHG mitigation and adaptation

technologies in transport sector. At the national level the Ministry of Transport and

Communication (MTC) and/ or Ministry of Environment, Energy and Water (MEEW)

shall first and foremost create a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)21 in line with

UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and MARPOL convention as a policy instrument that will

provide incentives to encourage sustainable urban development by both land and

maritime transport private sectors.

The official role of the public sector in relation to investments should be the creation

of an enabling environment for private sector investment in support of sustainable

21 As worded by GSEII (2005)



development, which takes due account of potential synergies with the UNFCCC

objectives. Such that private investors shall take business decisions that in future will

lead to low trends in emissions compared to business as usual scenarios. The public

investment, whether domestic or foreign, will only play a role in those areas where it

has a clear comparative advantage. From this point of view public grants to non-

Annex I countries will remain rather limited, but it may have a catalytic effect.

It is recommended to implement the hard and soft technology based GHG mitigation

options which includes traffic management techniques to limit vehicle and vessel fleet

size such as to promote an integrated public transport system, for both land and

maritime transport, utilising alternative fuel configurations for vehicles and vessels.

Government may also reduce the customs duties on vehicles and vessels to be used

for public transport as an incentive to improve demand management, such that the

supply of efficient integrated public transport system may decrease demand for

private transport. Hence this shall keep public transportation costs down, reliable, fast

and frequent and thereby provide incentives for its greater use.

It is recommended to implement mitigation options such as priority measures, fiscal

restraints, telecommuting, traffic management information technology, market based

options for carbon credit point trading. Furthermore it is recommenced to implement

actions to reduce vehicle emissions techniques such as to promote use of emissions

catalyst neutralizers, testing devices of gross polluters, natural barriers, alternative

lean burn engine configurations for vehicles, efficient vehicle technology to promote

green travel plans and low emission zones

Amongst the key stakeholders consulted, it is a wide consensus that the establishment

of an integrated public transport system which consists of mini buses for Malé,

Hulhumalé, Addu Atoll, Laamu Atoll, Fuahmulah And Kulhudhufushi road networks

(with 16-20 seat, high roof, low floor vehicles powered by hybrid structure combining

electricity and hydrogen or electricity and petrol), and a integrated ferry network in

Male’ Urban Region shall reduce the GHG emission level from transport sector

considerably.



The Government of Maldives must also act decisively and promptly to reduce

substantially emissions of air pollution from ships (which are substantially less

regulated than land based transportation) in the effort to promote the Clean Ship

Concept22 by setting environmental criteria that should include minimum

requirements, for instance the use of low-sulphur fuel (or ultra low sulphur fuel –

ULSF) for operation of ships at sea and berth within the Maldivian archipelagic

baselines and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Such policy measures shall reduce

environmental risk in all ports and standardize key pollutants emitted to air (such as

SOx, NOx, particulate matter, CO2), water from anti-fouling, operational discharge of

ballast water). Furthermore, tightening of shipping emission limits is likely spur and

hasten the development of these control technologies, which will reduce the

associated impacts to public health and environment. Hence the existence of

incentives schemes for quality shipping, like differentiated port dues, shore-side

electricity supply and environmental management systems shall be an added

advantage in reducing GHG emissions.

It is also recommended to implement hard and soft technology based options to adapt

to the mitigations technologies in order to reduce travel such as to promote public

awareness, demand-side management, regulation of fuel economy, institutional

strengthening and capacity building, land-use planning and traffic management

schemes, and promote support from Government of Maldives as national air control

policies, strategies, regulations, standards and enforcement initiates.

Henceforth Maldives have to make its best endeavour to adapt technologies based

solutions for effective GHG mitigation recommended above, reduce resilience to

technology change by eliminating key barriers to transfer and enhance political will

though stringent policies, in order to mitigate emission of GHG from transport sector,

achieve milestone targets and hinder devastating effects to Maldives due to the global

problem of climate change.

22 As worded in the European Federation for Transport and Environment T&E (2004), Motorways of the Sea – Implementation through Article 12a TEN-T, Joint NGO Comments on the Consultation Document



6.3 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

It is highly recommended to conduct an In-depth Technology Needs Assessment to

identify the technology based GHG mitigation solutions and adaptation measures for

air transport sector as the current wide air transport network in the Maldives consumes

a large portion of imparted GHG emitting fossil fuels. Hence Air transport

technologies should be incorporated in the effort to mitigate the overall GHG

emissions from transport sector.

All of the hard and soft technologies addressed in this In-depth TNA can be

implemented to successfully reduce GHG emissions (at different levels for various

technologies) in the Maldives with sufficient political will, effective private sector

participation, sufficient financial mechanisms and public awareness campaigns.

However it is highly recommended to conduct a prioritising exercise (among key

stakeholders and potential financers) to identify which GHG mitigation and

adaptation technologies addressed in this In-depth TNA should be implemented first

and which technologies to be forthcoming in order to successfully reduce GHG

emissions in a fashion that does not hinder sustainable development of Maldives.



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ANNEX I – MAP OF MALDIVES



ANNEX II - PROJECT PROFILE ONE

PUBLIC AWARENESS CAMPAIGNS

Background and goal

Public Awareness campaigns are an powerful and important tool to educate the

general public on dangers of GHG emissions and vulnerability of Maldives, and

dissipate vital information on available clean technologies, alternative fuel

configurations, alternative engine configurations, hybrid vehicle and vessel

technology, land-use planning etc. in order to sway the private transport market by

creating mental connections between environmental externalities and particular sizes,

kinds, or models of transport.

Project rationale and objectives:

Public awareness and education programs can help to successfully communicate

benefits of pedestrian friendly road networks, public transport, cleaner low-cost

transport alternatives for public and hence help markets to function more effectively.

Private sector must be involved as they play an important role (in-terms of

investments and public opinion) in the effort to successfully mitigate adverse effects

of climate change.

Expected activities, output and outcomes:

Public awareness campaigns may lead to significant voluntary efforts to curb

emissions as they understand the dangers of GHG emissions to climate change due to

the increasing levels of transport related air pollution dispersed in to the atmosphere.

Financing mechanism

The public awareness campaigns can be funded by national budget of Maldivian

Government (irrespective of its allocated ministry of agency) and by assistance from

UNFCCC affiliated international agencies.



ANNEX III - PROJECT PROFILE TWO

INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING BY CAPACITY BUILDING

Background and goal

Institutional strengthening by capacity building is an essential requirement for the

successful implementation of the adaptation strategies. This also includes

strengthening the legal institutional and administrative arrangements of transport

agencies.

Objectives and outcomes

The main objective and outcome it to strengthen pertinent institution by developing

skilled human recourse capacity in transport technology and legal studies (with

specializations in transport and climate change legal aspects) in order to successfully

develop, regulate, implement and enforce clean transport low-emissions technology

and GHG emission standards in the country. Furthermore human recourse

development will strengthen data collection and monitor emissions levels, which are

areas that needs urgent attention in the Maldives.

Financing mechanism

Due to heavy cost implications, the human resource capacity building component can

only be financed by an or a combination of external donor agencies such as Asian

Development Bank, World Bank etc.



ANNEX IV - PROJECT PROFILE THREE

DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINABLE INTER-ISLAND SEA BASED MASS

TRANSPORT TION SYSTEM

Background and goals

One of the main sectors, which contribute to GHG emission, is the transport sector.

The sea transport systems, which currently exist, is not operated on a scheduled basis.

The National Development Plan identifies regions to be developed as regional centres

in the Maldives. Establishing a mass transportation network between these regions

can develop a sustainable transport system in the Maldives and reduce GHG emission.

Project rationale and objectives:

The development of a scheduled transport system would reduce the need for the ad

hoc movement and has the potential to reduce the emission of GHG from the transport

sector. Development of such network work would help to achieve the goals of

sustainable development. The main objective of this project is to establish a mass

transportation network for passengers and cargo between the regional centres in the

country.

Planned activities and outcomes:

Obtain efficient, large, fast ferries to set up a national ferry service network.

Build harbours across the nation, with the capacities to handle cargo.

Establish a feeder service from neighbouring islands to the harbours using the

existing fleet of small dhonis and vessels.

Financing Mechanism

Due to heavy cost implications, inter-island sea based mass transportation system

component can only be financed by an external donor agency such as Asian

Development Bank, World Bank etc.

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