Improving performance of new buildingOpportunities for local governments

Tom-Pierre Frappé-SénéclauzeSenior advisor, Pembina Institutetw: @tompierrefs

CEA Webinar April 5, 2016

With the support of:

Leading Canada’s transition to clean energyThe Pembina Institute is a non-partisan think tank that seeks policy change to transition Canada to clean energy.

Outline

1. Context: BC emissions forecast

2. Getting to 50% reduction by 2030

3. Energy efficiency working group recommendations on stretch code

3

B.C. carbon pollution forecast

Adapted from: Climate Leadership Team: Recommendations to Government, October 31, 2015

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-33%-40%

-80%

20102005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20502045

Carb

on p

ollu

tion

(MtC

0 2e)

Historical Forecast

Current policy

Climate Leadership Team recommendations

Targets

4

World Bank & PWC: “we’re on track for 4�C”

Sea level rise of 0.5 to 2 meters

Severe drought over 40% of land

Indian wheat & US corn production drop 60%

Half of species extinct

Hundred millions of refugees

World Bank, Turn Down the Heat, 2012 PWC Low Carbon Economy Index, 20145

6

Climate Leadership Team

CLT recommendations: fiscal policy

7

• Increase carbon tax $10 / tonne / year• Expand coverage in 5 years• Reduce PST • Protect low-income & northern/rural

households• Protect emissions-intensive, trade-

exposed sectors

CLT recommendations: buildings

Target 50% GHG reductions by 2030

New� Require net-zero ready by 2025

(2016 for public sector)� Increase use of wood

Existing� Retrofits & financing programs� Standards to transition market to

high efficiency electrical heating

8

B.C. carbon pollution forecast

Adapted from: Climate Leadership Team: Recommendations to Government, October 31, 2015

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-33%-40%

-80%

20102005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20502045

Carb

on p

ollu

tion

(MtC

0 2e)

Historical Forecast

Current policy

Climate Leadership Team recommendations

Targets

9

10

Building stock evolution

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bui

ldin

g Fl

oor A

rea

(mill

ion

m2)

Pre-2010 Construction

New construction

Data: Navius / Clean Energy Canada

11

Building stock evolution

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bui

ldin

g Fl

oor A

rea

(mill

ion

m2)

Pre-2010 Construction

Data: Navius / Clean Energy Canada

Current Code

12

Building stock evolution

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bui

ldin

g Fl

oor A

rea

(mill

ion

m2)

Pre-2010 Construction

Current Code

Net-Zero Ready

Data: Navius / Clean Energy Canada

‘Net-zero ready’ building:

… so energy efficient that its annual energy needs could be generated on-site (over a year)

Total EUI in the range of 40 – 85 kWh/m2/yr

~ 60-70% better than 90.1-2010

13

14

Efficiency

Data: Navius / Clean Energy Canada

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GJ/

m2

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpt

ion

(PJ/

yr) Building Energy Intensity, GJ/m2

Total Energy use

15

Efficiency + Electrification2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GJ/

m2

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpt

ion

(PJ/

yr) Building Energy Intensity, GJ/m2

Natural Gas

Electricity

Data: Navius / Clean Energy Canada

Key take aways

¾ of 2050 buildings are yet to be built

Can cut carbon pollution by half by 2030 and eliminate by 2050 if..� Implement high efficiency codes early� Drive fuel switch through zero-GHG standards for

heating equipment + carbon tax

Minimal increase in electricity demand

17

Outline1. Context: BC emission forecast 2. Getting to 50% reductions by 20303. Energy efficiency working group

and Stretch codes

17

18

Context: the Building Act

19Image: Province of BC

Required or incentivized

20

Proposed tiers for Part 3 (DRAFT)

TEDI: Thermal energy demand intensity TEUI: Total energy use intensity

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4

TEDI: - 55%TEUI: -38% TEDI: - 70%

TEUI: -42% TEDI: - 85%TEUI: -52%

Enhanced compliance:

Air tightness testingCommissioningEnergy modeling guidance and process

>50%

-50%

-20%NationalBuildingCode- 9.36

EnergyStar

R2000

Proposed tiers for Part 9 (DRAFT)

Next stepsApril: Part 3 technical recommendations report

Spring-Summer: Three more consultations� April: District Energy

� May-June: Part 9

� June-July: Implementation for DE, Part 3 & Part 9

Fall:� UBCM resolution

� Ministerial sign off, writing of regulation.

Dec 2016: stretch codes ready for adoptionDec 2017: Old bylaws rescinded

Thought Leader Forum, June 2015

23

2 days, 50 organizations, 82 participants: Can we get all new Part 3 ‘net-zero ready’ by 2030?

Summary and policy proposal

24 pembina.org/reports/pathways-to-net-zero-summary.pdf

Call to Action on Climate and Energy in the Building Sector

25www.pembina.org/pub/buildings-declaration

26www.pembina.org/bcgreenbuildings

Opportunities to engage

1. Join ‘call to action’ coalition2. Fill online form (anonymous)

https://engage.gov.bc.ca/climateleadership

3. Write submission 4. Discuss use of stretch code

with your local government(s)

27Image: Acton Ostry Arch.

Thank you. And please join us!

28

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Thank you!

Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauzetompierrefs@pembina.org