improvements on the quantification of external costs
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Improvements on the quantification of external costs. External costs of energy and their internalisation in Europe Bruxelles, 9 December 2005. Andrea Ricci ISIS. Background. Research so far has provided a “usable body of knowledge” Increasing awareness - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Improvements on the quantification of external costs
Andrea RicciISIS
External costs of energy and their internalisation in Europe
Bruxelles, 9 December 2005
2/16
Background
Research so far has provided a “usable body of knowledge”
• Increasing awareness• Technology and policy choices (standards, Directives,
extended CBA)• Internalisation
BUT… There are still gaps and needs for
improvement in several areas• Methodologies => better quality and reliability of
external cost data, reduced uncertainties• Coverage => additional technologies, burdens,
impacts, pathways, countries• Practical implementation =>integration into policy
and decision making: LCA, Modelling/scenarios
3/16
Methodological improvements
Atmospheric modelling
•Complexity of physical process (chemical transformation, orography, meteorology, background concentrations)
•Trade off between accuracy (better models) and simplicity (parametrisation)
•Finer representation (modelling) at local level
•Impacts across continents => Hemispheric modelling of airborne pollutants
4/16
Global warming
•Large uncertainty of cost estimates, reflecting Uncertainty of emissions/climate change scenarios Context dependency of impacts (including e.g.
discount rate)•Combined approach: joint use of damage and
avoidance estimates •Better estimation of damage costs
Inclusion of additional sectors (e.g. tourism) Inclusion of additional GHG (SF6, PFCs, HFCs)
•Better estimation of avoidance costs More and better scenarios (socio-economic, policy,
energy sector) Inclusion of additional GHG
Methodological improvements
5/16
Methodological improvements
Mortality and morbidity
• Prevailing weight in damage costs (e.g. air pollution)
• Mainstream approach: Contingent Valuation (CVM) Reliability and accuracy issue Value Of Life Years lost (VOLY) to measure changes in
life expectancy Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) to measure morbidity
impact
• More and better surveys Extension of geographical coverage (additional surveys) Additional criteria for transferability (cultural, risk
perception)
6/16
Extension of scope and coverage
Multimedia pathways
•Air Vs soil and water
•Prevailing effects on human health
•Multimedia chains, extension of the impact pathway(s)
•Exposure => food trade and consumption
•Biotransfers (milk, meat, fish)
7/16
Extension of scope and coverage
Biodiversity
• Land use change, land take (power plants, distribution infrastructure), acidification, eutrophication
• Limits of Contingent Valuation (and relevance to energy production)
• Methodological problem: how to measure
• PDF (Potentially Disappeared Fraction)
• Costs of compensation
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Other areas for improvement
Methodologies
• Improvement of Exposure-Response functions
• Generalisation and transferability of external cost values
• Inter-sectoral issues associated to internalisation policies
• …
Scope and coverage
• External costs associated to the security of energy supply
• Extraction and transport (e.g. oil spills)
• …
9/16
Integration into policy and decision making
Long term perspective• Future technologies
10/16
“Future” energy technologies
hydrogen technologies fuel cells offshore wind photovoltaic concentrating solar thermal power plant biomass (including wet) wave energy geothermal …
BUT ALSO…
advanced fossil fuels advanced nuclear …
11/16
Integration into policy and decision making
Long term perspective• Future technologies• Dynamic LCA (time- and scenario-dependent)
12/16
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
….
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
….
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
France
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
France
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
….
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
….
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
fuel cell
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
fuel cell
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
PV
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
kg/kWh
PV
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
Germany
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
….
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
NOx
kg/kWh
2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg2050
2025
2000
Scen CScen BScenaA
SO2
€/kg
Germany
RS1a RS1b
technology specific external costs per unit electricity generation
(Excel format) (Excel format)
€/kWh
LCA of individual technologies External costs per unit emission
Time dependency
Scenario dependency
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Integration into policy and decision making
Long term perspective• Future technologies
• Dynamic LCA (time- and scenario-dependent)
• Individual technologies Vs policy packages
• Meaningful and credible scenarios
• Improved modelling fully integrating LCA and external costs (better technology representation, energy trade and cross-country harmonisation, impacts of internalisation…)
14/16
The NEEDS Integrated Project (FP6)New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability
15/16
Is it worth the effort?
Awareness => orders of magnitude
Technology policy and investment priorities• External costs included in e.g. CBA• Small % variations in cost estimates may induce
different ranking
Internalisation policies• Fair application of the user pays principle requires
maximum accuracy• Avoiding (further) market distortions• Differentiation
YES!
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Thank you for your attention
Andrea Ricci
ISIS – Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi – [email protected]
www.needs-project.org