Improvements of the Swedish estimated Intrastat data by adding estimations based on VIES data

Nordic meeting 16 September 2014

Jennie Bergman & Ari Mansikkaviita

Introduction• VIES – VAT Information Exchange System• Agreement with the Swedish Tax Authorities since

November 2010• Monthly VIES-data deliveries

• The aim of the project:• To evaluate and provide better reliability in the

Swedish external trade statistics in goods• To develop new and improved estimation methods

for non-collected data• To investigate the reliability in the VIES data

Estimation methods • Estimates of non-response are done in two stages:

• Step 1: Estimation of the total flow per company• Step 2: Distribution on commodities (CN8)

combined with country codes- where history is available- where history is missing

• Estimation methods: • Imputation with VAT value • Manual imputation • Exponential smoothing

Swedish Intrastat system• Threshold value SEK 4.5 million for both arrivals

and dispatches• Coverage 2012: dispatches 98.2%, arrivals 96.3%• Number of companies reporting 2012:

dispatches 5,200, arrivals 8,800

VIES data• Monthly/quarterly reported dispatch data to Swedish Tax

Authorities • No threshold • Number of companies (on average per month): 16,000

• Arrival data obtained from other member states’ reported dispatch data• Number of companies (on average per month): 58,000

• Dispatch data: reporting period, VAT-number of the reporter, VAT-number (incl. country code) of the receiver of the goods, value of goods, value of triangular trade and value of services

• Arrivals data: reporting period, VAT-number of the receiver of the goods, country code of dispatching MS, value of goods, value of triangular trade and value of services

Differences in definitions between Intrastat, VAT and VIES• Reporting periods • Invoice or goods flow • Inclusion/exclusion of certain transactions; deliveries

without an invoice, deliveries sold to/purchased by private persons, goods for processing

• Staggered consignment

• Triangular trade

Comparing Intrastat, VAT and VIES

Total sum of reported values in Intrastat, VAT and VIES for the same companies, arrivals. Corrected values for April and December in brackets.

PeriodNumber of

Intrastat reporters Intrastat VAT VIES Intrastat-VAT Intrastat-VIES VAT-VIES Intrastat-VAT Intrastat-VIES VAT-VIES

Bill. of EUR

Bill. of EUR Bill. of EUR

Diff. bill. of EUR

Diff. bill. of EUR

Diff. bill. of EUR Diff. percent Diff. percent Diff. percent

201201 8,571 6.2 6.1 5.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.6% 6.5% 4.9%

201202 8,620 6.6 6.5 5.8 0.1 0.8 0.7 1.5% 12.1% 10.8%

201203 8,735 7.3 7.2 6.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 1.4% 11.0% 9.7%

201204 8,771 6.4 6.2 9.7 (6.2) 0.2 -3.3 (0.2) -3.5 (0.0) 3.1% -51.6% (3.1%) -56.5% (0.0%)

201205 8,536 6.9 6.8 6.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.4% 10.1% 8.8%

201206 8,543 6.8 6.7 5.7 0.1 1.1 1.0 1.5% 16.2% 14.9%

201207 8,592 5.7 5.6 4.8 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.8% 15.8% 14.3%

201208 8,606 6.1 6.0 5.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.6% 11.5% 10.0%

201209 8,658 6.1 6.2 5.5 -0.1 0.6 0.7 -1.6% 9.8% 11.3%

201210 8,685 6.9 6.8 6.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.4% 10.1% 8.8%

201211 8,574 6.9 7.0 5.8 -0.1 1.1 1.2 -1.4% 15.9% 17.1%

201212 8,605 5.9 5.9 3.3 (5.8) 0.0 2.6 (0.1) 2.6 (0.1) 0.0% 44.1% (1.7) 44.1% (1.7)

2012 77.8 77.0 70.7 (69.7) 0.8 7.1 (8.1) 6.3 (7.3) 1.0% 9.1% (10.4%) 8.2% (9.5%)

Comparing Intrastat, VAT and VIES

Total sum of reported values in Intrastat, VAT and VIES for the same companies, dispatches.

PeriodNumber of

Intrastat reporters Intrastat VAT VIES Intrastat-VAT Intrastat-VIES VAT-VIES Intrastat-VAT Intrastat-VIES VAT-VIES

Bill. of EUR Bill. of EURBill. of

EURDiff. bill. of

EURDiff. bill. of

EURDiff. bill. of EUR Diff. percent Diff. percent

Diff. percent

2012015,390 5.6 5.1 5.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 8.9% 10.7% 2.0%

2012025,411 5.4 5.1 5.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 5.6% 3.7% -2.0%

2012035,468 6.2 5.6 5.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 9.7% 9.7% 0.0%

2012045,492 5.4 5.4 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0% 1.9% 1.9%

2012055,381 5.9 5.5 5.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 6.8% 6.8% 0.0%

2012065,364 5.8 5.2 5.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 10.3% 12.1% 1.9%

2012075,369 4.7 4.4 4.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 6.4% 6.4% 0.0%

2012085,268 5.1 4.8 4.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 5.9% 5.9% 0.0%

2012095,278 5.2 4.8 4.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 7.7% 7.7% 0.0%

2012105,280 5.8 5.4 5.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 6.9% 6.9% 0.0%

2012115,234 5.4 5.1 5.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 5.6% 5.6% 0.0%

2012125,265 4.4 4.2 4.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 4.5% 9.1% 4.8%

201264.9 60.6 60.2 4.3 4.7 0.4 6.6% 7.2% 0.7%

Comparisons on country levelNumber of companies and sum of value per country in Intrastat and VIES 2012, arrivals. (*Trade not reported by Swedish companies)

Country codeNumber or Intrastat reporters

Number of VIES companies*

Intrastat value bill. of EUR

VIES value bill. of EUR

Diff. bill of EUR Diff. percent

AT 1,824 1,824 1.2 1.1 0.1 10.3BE 2,659 2,714 4.4 6.3 -1.9 -44.1BG 267 286 0.1 0.1 -0.0 -22.1CY 96 114 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -115.0CZ 1,278 1,347 1.4 1.2 0.2 16.1DE 6,582 6,756 19.9 11.3 8.6 43.2DK 5,513 6,031 9.0 7.3 1.7 18.6EE 1,190 1,396 1.5 1.2 0.4 23.4ES 2,105 2,336 1.5 2.4 -0.9 -62.7FI 3,709 4,404 5.8 4.5 1.3 21.9FR 3,392 4,005 4.9 4.3 0.6 12.1GB 4,465 5,069 7.6 5.9 1.6 21.7GR 324 412 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -89.6HU 658 840 0.7 1.1 -0.4 -57.4IE 951 1,142 1.4 5.1 -3.8 -280.7IT 3,952 4,464 3.2 3.9 -0.7 -23.1LT 807 1,079 0.7 1.0 -0.3 -50.9LU 296 663 0.2 0.5 -0.2 -97.7LV 610 904 0.4 0.5 -0.1 -16.9MT 62 92 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -94.3NL 4,345 5,151 8.0 8.3 -0.2 -3.1PL 2,336 2,925 3.3 3.6 -0.4 -11.1PT 700 888 0.4 0.7 -0.3 -64.1RO 259 485 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -30.8SI 423 578 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -173.2SK 481 631 0.8 0.9 -0.1 -7.0

Comparisons on country levelNumber of companies and sum of value per country in Intrastat and VIES 2012, dispatches.

Country codeNumber or Intrastat reporters Number of VIES reporters

Intrastat value bill. of EUR

VIES value bill. of EUR Diff. bill of EUR Dif. percent

AT 1,782 1,796 1.1 0.6 0.5 42.8BE 2,418 2,453 6.1 2.6 3.6 58.1BG 729 749 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -197.1CY 408 420 0.0 0.6 -0.5 -1.804.1CZ 1,760 1,793 0.9 1.2 -0.4 -43.9DE 3,993 4,083 12.5 7.2 5.3 42.1DK 4,245 4,361 7.8 6.3 1.5 19.0EE 2,286 2,420 1.1 1.3 -0.2 -15.7ES 2,220 2,341 1.9 2.0 -0.1 -4.3FI 4,060 4,198 7.5 6.9 0.6 8.2FR 2,824 3,023 5.9 5.2 0.7 11.4GB 3,213 3,445 9.9 10.6 -0.6 -6.5GR 980 1,477 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -82.6HU 1,346 1,462 0.6 1.1 -0.5 -79.1IE 1,119 1,259 0.6 1.0 -0.4 -71.3IT 2,383 2,570 2.9 3.3 -0.4 -15.3LT 1,549 1,676 0.5 1.1 -0.6 -122.0LU 408 502 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -120.0LV 1,470 1,646 0.4 0.9 -0.5 -132.1MT 273 313 0.1 0.4 -0.3 -542.1NL 2,961 3,191 6.7 6.9 -0.2 -3.0PL 2,884 3,046 3.2 4.0 -0.8 -23.7PT 1,181 1,295 0.5 0.9 -0.4 -72.7RO 954 1,073 0.2 0.5 -0.3 -146.4SI 774 854 0.1 0.5 -0.4 -415.1SK 932 1,051 0.2 0.5 -0.3 -127.4

Possibilities with VIES data• Greater opportunities to improve the quality of the

estimated data• More estimation based on companies’ own historical

data on country level – both for non-respondents and companies below the threshold

• Three step approach instead of two (for companies with VIES data);

• Step 1: Estimation of the total flow per company• Step 2: Distribution on country level by using VIES data• Step 3: Distribution on CN8 level by using Intrastat values

Proposals for future development

• Implement VIES data in the new Intrastat system that will be build 2015-2016

• Testing and implementing VIES data in the estimations

• Improve the checking between Intrastat and VAT by implementing VIES data

• Investigate large discrepancies between Intrastat and VAT/VIES for dispatch data