improved forecasts of respiratory illness hazard …...improved forecasts of respiratory illness...

Improved Forecasts of Respiratory Illness Hazard from Gulf of Mexico Red Tide

2016 update

1Rick Stumpf, 2Barbara Kirkpatrick, 1Shelly Tomlinson, 1Wayne Litaker, 4Tracy Fanara, 3Andy Reich, 1Andrew Meredith, 2Robert Courier

1NOAA, 2Texas A&M University, 3Florida Department of Health, 4Mote Marine Laboratory

FloridaRedTide

ROSES: NNH13ZDA001N

NASA Health and Air Quality, Sep 2015 NOAA Coastal Ocean Science

Outline

Project summary and objectives Results and Milestones year 1 Year 2 Milestones and plans Budget ARL Issues


•  Microalga K. brevis forms extensive toxic blooms in the Gulf of Mexico from Texas to Florida (and also Mexico)

•  Late summer/early fall to year long

•  Brevetoxins, sodium channel activators

•  Kills fish, birds, dolphins and manatees

•  Neurotoxic shellfish poisoning

•  Economic losses in Florida and Texas

•  Respiratory illness in humans

Toxic Karenia brevis blooms


Toxic Aerosols

•  Toxins can aerosolize - particles 3-20 µm range

•  Respiratory distress in healthy people

•  Coughing, watery eyes, runny nose, sinus pain

•  When people with chronic lung disease inhale toxins they become ill

•  Early-mid 2000s NIH study quantified effects on lung function


Effects of Exposure •  One hour walk on the beach during a red tide-

Asthmatics (~9% population) decrease pulmonary function and increased symptoms

•  5 days for pulmonary function reach baseline

•  Lifeguards (occupational healthy group) - no pulmonary function normal effect

•  Everyone reacts, useful indicator exposure

•  54% increase in ER respiratory (asthma, pneumonia, bronchitis)

•  Sarasota County alone, ER costs increase up to $4 million, depending on bloom severity

•  Loss revenue to area businesses ($6 million/month per county)

•  Critical need to accurately warn the public


Context

In 2004, NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) implemented operational forecast system in Florida

Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Bulletin Region: Southwest Florida Tuesday, 12 November 2013 NOAA National Ocean Service NOAA Satellite and Information Service NOAA National Weather Service Last bulletin: Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Satellite chlorophyll image with possible K. brevis HAB areas shown by red polygon(s), when applicable. Points represent cell concentration sampling data from November 2 to 8: red (high), orange (medium), yellow (low b), brown (low a), blue (very low b), purple (very low a), pink (present), and green (not present). Cell count data are provided by Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) Fish and Wildlife Research Institute. For a list of sample providers and a key to the cell concentration categories, please see the HAB-OFS bulletin guide: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/habfs_bulletin_guide.pdf

Detailed sample information can be obtained through FWC Fish and Wildlife Research Institute at: http://myfwc.com/redtidestatus

To see previous bulletins and forecasts for other Harmful Algal Bloom Bulletin regions, visit at: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/bulletins.html

Conditions Report Not present to medium concentrations of Karenia brevis (commonly known as Florida red tide) are present along- and offshore portions of southwest Florida, and not present in the Florida Keys. K. brevis concentrations are patchy in nature and levels of respiratory irritation will vary locally based upon nearby bloom concentrations, ocean currents, and wind speed and direction. The highest level of potential respiratory irritation forecast for Tuesday, November 12 to Thursday, November 14 is listed below:

County Region: Forecast (Duration) Southern Sarasota, bay regions: Very Low (T-Th) Northern Charlotte, bay regions: Very Low (T-Th) Southern Charlotte, bay regions: Very Low (T-Th) Northern Lee, bay regions: Very Low (T-Th) All Other SWFL County Regions: None (T-Th)

Check http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/beach_conditions.html for recent, local obser- vations. Health information, from the Florida Department of Health and other agencies, is available at http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/hab_health_info.html. Over the past several days, no reports of respiratory irritation or dead fish were recei ved from southwest Florida.

Analysis Samples collected over the past ten days along- and offshore southwest Florida indicate that Karenia brevis concentrations range from ’not present’ to ’medium’ (FWRI, SCHD, CCPCPD; 11/2-11/8). Background to ’medium’ concentrations of K. brevis were collected from southern Sarasota County, with the highest concentrations identified from Manasota Key and Casperson Beach (FWRI, MML; 11/4-8). No new samples have been collected since ’background’ to ’low a’ K. brevis concentrations were identified in the Lemon Bay and Gasparilla Sound regions of Charlotte County and alongshore northern Charlotte County, along with ’background’ to ’low a’ concentrations throughout the northern Pine Island Sound region of Lee County (FWRI; 11/4-7). A sample collected alongshore the South Seas Plantation region of central Lee County identified background concentrations of K. brevis (FWRI; 11/6). All other samples collected alongshore southwest Florida from Pinellas to Collier counties indicated that K. brevis is not present (FWRI; 11/2-5). No dead fish or respiratory irritation associated with K. brevis have been reported in the past several days (FWRI, MML; 11/4-11).

MODIS Aqua imagery has been cloudy over the past several days, limiting analysis. In MODIS Aqua Imagery from 11/11 (shown left), elevated chlorophyll (2 to >20 µg/L) is visible in patches along- and offshore from southern Sarasota to Collier County. Elevated chlorophyll is not necessarily indicative of the presence of K. brevis and could also be an artifact of clouds in the imagery. In situ sampling is necessary to confirm the presence of .brevis. This region will continue to be monitored as imagery becomes available.

Continued offshore winds forecasted over the next few days may decrease the potential for K. brevis bloom formation at the coast, and will also decrease the potential for respiratory irritation alongshore southwest Florida.

I


Based on Chlorophyll a anomalies and weekly cell counts

• Extended to Texas in 2010

• Based satellite derived Chla anomaly & cell counts

• Forecasts are made for large areas, 35 km or more of coast (typically ½ to whole county)

• Report twice a week

• Used by >200 managers and public health officials

Development of chla patched between Tampa and Sanibel Island over 3 day period. Top: Chlorophyll; bottom: chlorophyll bloom anomaly, red is potential bloom


Current respiratory warning

Warnings are by the county and vague over the day.

Blooms are patchy and

winds change.


Cell distribution spatially quite variable

Wind speed and direction variable


•  In 2006, Mote Marine Laboratory started the Beach Conditions Reporting System® (BCRS)

• Lifeguards and park rangers equipped with smartphones

• Report at 1000 and 1500 h on subjective beach conditions

• Provides useful information to community, 45,000 hits per month

• Asthmatic can say in AC or medicate if risk know in advance

• No idea how bad if wind blows offshore. And many beaches are not monitored

Beach Condition Report


Project Overview

Satellite identifies bloom area Local wind field models

Measure cell and toxin concentrations

Respiratory risk proportional K. brevis concentrations X strength of the onshore wind

Provide near real-time exposure

levels


•  Enhanced satellite to identify where samples should be taken

•  Ocean color data from MODIS on Aqua and Terra satellites

•  VIIRS –SNPP, OLCI on Sentinel-3

•  Rapid field acquisition (microscope, video and photo ID), GPS, and cell/WIFI transmission system package. Delivery of K. brevis presence from the field.

•  Improved, 1-3 hour forecast of respiratory risk at beaches.

•  Alerts daily, rather than twice weekly; multiple sources, web maps etc.

•  Respiratory distress validation system using current BCRS

System Components


Team Lead PI, Dr. Richard Stumpf (NOAA)

Oversee coordination, accomplishments and reporting. Direct earth observation improvements, model development and forecast implementation.

Institutional co-PI, Dr. Barbara Kirkpatrick (TAMU))

Organize the community beach monitoring implementation and training Oversee integration of new monitoring capabilities and forecasts with the BCRS Review forecast products for usability Conduct the end user workshops and public outreach.

Co-PI Michelle Tomlinson (NOAA) will lead the prototype development, conduct training

to transfer systems to CO-OPS and Texas, coordinate model training with Dr. Kirkpatrick.

Consultants Andrew Reich (Florida DOH) develop materials for public health education and

coordinate health departments in workshops. Wayne Litaker will lead the smartphone water sampling component and validation. Key Staff: Andrew Meredith (NOAA Contractor, GIS specialist), who built the original CO-OPS HAB

forecast system, develop the new forecast system modules. Robert Currier, Information Technology expert behind the BCRS will be responsible for

assimilating project data into the BCRS

BCRS example report during red tide. Note "moderate" respiratory risk and wind from the "south" (onshore).


System


Testing enhancement of Ensemble with RBD The ensemble is effective with new features. Problematic after persistent high chlorophyll event. Karenia accumulates at surface during calm. RBD detects


Observer System Portable scope system for volunteers Prototype completed. 3D print

mounting iPod analysis & GPS KarmaGo communication for data Automated detection

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpA6x9FvBJE


Observer training

Alpha testers: interns at Mote Marine Lab

Beta testers: volunteers Then lifeguards Data upload to GCOOS

site, under development


Respiratory Model Model. Python-based, uses NDFD winds and cell counts to

predict respiratory over time at each beach. Deliver products to GCOOS, BCRS, NOAA/CO-OPS Visual review of model for NOAA/CO-OPS analysts


Milestones 2016 - Year 1

Currently ARL 4 ARL6 beta test & demonstration Satellite Modeling Development (RS/AM) Data compositing & sampling model code

prototype in NCCOS

Forecast Creation (RS/MT/AM) Integrate weather (NDFD) & data

Integrate weather (NDFD) & data Conduct prototype forecasts

Forecast Distribution (MT) Design products

Skill Assessment (RS/MT) Develop skill data collection

Smartphone Communication (RC) App development & Field tested

Community group recruit/training BK) Florida sampling group trained

Training materials for sentinel groups and forecasters. (MT/BK)

Develop training material

End User workshops (BK/AR) Introduce project/ goals to end users. Assess current satisfaction with CO-OPS product

Public outreach (BK/AR) Media releases webinars/etc. Establish user feedback log book.


Integrated Approach •  Improved satellite location of blooms

•  NDFD model and measured winds

•  Cell counts (multiples sources)

•  Beach condition reports

•  Models will be trained to improve accuracy

•  User groups provide continual feedback on cell phone microscope, presentation of data, accuracy, etc.

•  Education through Mote, established BCRS network, social and local media, chambers of commerce, Red Tide Rangers

•  NDFD wind data will be combined with that from the

• 

Red Tide Ranger analyzing samples


2017 - Year 2 2018 - Year 3

ARL6-7 prototype & determined useful

ARL8--9 used & sustained

Satellite Modeling Development (RS/AM) Done

Establish systematic directed sampling from satellite/field

Transfer production code to NOAA operations

Forecast Creation (RS/MT/AM) Conduct prototype forecasts Transfer code to CO-OPS & train in new process

Integrate weather (NDFD) & data Prototype with current systems Implement distribution networks

Forecast Distribution (MT) Prototype skill assessment methods Refine skill assessment methods

Skill Assessment (RS/MT) Deployed with community networks Operational

Smartphone Communication (RC)

Adjust based on end user feedback Adjust based on End User feedback

Community group recruit/training BK) Started

New Florida & Texas groups Complete materials for future/training by orgs.

Training materials for sentinel groups and forecasters. (MT/BK)

Evaluate training material effectiveness

Complete/adjust training materials and package for local organizations use

End User workshops (BK/AR) developed

Annual end user feedback; assess with quantitative and qualitative tools

Continue annual end user feedback with quantitative and qualitative assessment tools

Public outreach (BK/AR) started Continue media. Continue user feedback log book.

Maintain Media releases, Continue user feedback log book.


Risks to project

•  Currently no risks to the project

•  Took a while to get financial transfers set up

•  expect no-cost extension. Red indicates regions where K. brevis

blooms adversely impact coastal communities most often.


Budget information

Yr1 Yr2 Yr3 330,936 341,144 347,800

Contracts in place pending

Billing through the next year

Year 2 A. Senior/Key Person $84,262

B. Other Personnel $141,613

Total (A+B) $225,875

C. Equipment $0

D. Travel $13,500

E. Participant/ Trainee Support Costs $0

F. Other Direct Costs Supplies for beach monitoring, response, and

communication

$38,227

G. Indirect $63,542

Total $341,144


Performance measures

Metric Measures

Forecast resolution # of beaches during red tide

Forecast frequency # daily forecasts during red tide

Skill Accuracy of risk prediction Accuracy of wind forecasts

Visibility Number of Web hits, Feeds, # and freq. media outlets

# of media outlets and frequency

Training Organizations trained in field program

Managers informed of products

Monitoring skill Accuracy of volunteer beach reports

Operational Efficiency Total time per week required for forecasts

End user satisfaction Quantitative assessment Qualitative assessment Feedback/concern logbook

Initial and then ongoing annual


Questions? K. brevis cell

Brevetoxin structure

improved forecasts of respiratory illness hazard …...improved forecasts of respiratory illness...

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