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8/7/2019 IMPORTANT POWER

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OECD/IEA - 2010

Energy TechnologyPerspectives 2010:

Indian Power Sector

Peter Taylor

3 September 2010, Delhi


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Scenarios in the Power Paper

ETP2010 Scenarios Baseline scenario:

Following the World Energy Outlook 2009 ReferenceScenario

World GDP grows by factor 2.75 between 2007 and 2050,Indias GDP nearly by factor 8

Energy prices: Oil USD 120/bbl in 2050, Coal USD115/tonne

BLUE scenario: 50% reduction of energy related CO2 emissions by 2050

compared to 2005

Options with marginal reductions of up to USD 175/t CO2are needed

Due to uncertainties number of variants being considered

High demand scenarios (BLUE & Baseline)

GDP growth rate for India averages 6.3% peryear to 2050 (8% to 2030) and no CCS


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Contributions to CO2 reductionsin India (ETP2010)

CO2 emissions in BASE more than quadruple between 2007and 2050. In BLUE, CO2 emissions in 2050 are 10% higher

than in 2007.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GtCO2

CCS 17%

Renewables 22%

Nuclear 10%

Power generation efficiency

and fuel switching 6%

End-use fuel switching 9%

End-use fuel and electricity

efficiency 36%WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis

BLUE Map emissions 1.5 Gt

Baseline emissions 6.5 Gt


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Power Sector Results for India


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Main Comments from Reviewfor Power Sector

Technology transfer issues Diffusion of low-carbon technologies in emerging

economies discussed in separate chapter in ETP 2010

How to achieve the BLUE Map scenario practically?

This type of analysis is beyond scope of ETP 2010, but IEAhas developed technology roadmaps on a global level and

is planning to release a guidebook on how to buildnational roadmaps.

Economic growth assumptions too pessimistic

Higher growth variants of the scenarios have beenincluded in the working paper.

Nuclear capacity too low in 2050

More optimistic assumptions regarding nuclearconstruction rates included in high demand variant ofBLUE scenario.

CCS considered not as an option for India

CCS has been excluded as mitigation option in the powersector for the high demand variant.


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ETP Scenarios for Indian PowerSector

Scenario GDP growth rateElectricity

generation in2050

CO2 price in2050

2007-2030 2030-2050 TWh USD/t CO2

Baseline 6.3% 3.3% 4062 -

Baseline HiDem 8.0% 4.0% 6606 -

BLUE Map 6.3% 3.3% 3762 175

BLUE HiDem 8.0% 4.0% 5003 175


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Power Generation in 2050

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Basel ine Basel ine HiDem BLUE Map BLUE HiDem

Electricitygeneration(TWh)

Geothermal

Tidal

Solar

Wind

Biomass+CCS

Biomass+Waste

Gas+CCS

Gas

Coal+CCS

Coal

Oil

Nuclear

Hydro

Power sector gets substantially decarbonised in the BLUE

scenarios: from 928 g CO2/kWh in 2007 to 78-98 g/KWh in2050.


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Power Capacity in 2050

Capacity needs in the power sector vary significantlydepending on economic growth and climate policy.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Basel ine Baseline HiDem BLUE Map BLUE HiDem

Electricitycapac

ity(GW)

Geothermal

Tidal

Solar

Wind

Biomass+CCS

Biomass+Waste

Gas+CCS

Gas

Coal+CCS

Coal

Oil

Nuclear

Hydro


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CO2 Emissions Reductions inPower Generation

CO2 emissions reductions result from reduced electricity use,

more renewables and nuclear and the introduction of CCS.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

BLUE Map BLUE HiDem

CO2reductionspower

sector(MtCO2)

Electricity savings

Other renewables

Hydro

Biomass

Fuel switching coal to gas

Eff improvement fossil gen

Nuclear

Solar

Wind

CCS

Remaining emissions

Baseline

Baseline HiDem


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Insights from Analysis ofIndian Power Sector

Electricity demand growth in relative termsmuch higher than in other regions

Due to low coal quality indigenous coal notnecessarily most economic optioncompared to import coal

Indian renewable potential is limited withthe exception of solar

In addition to solar, nuclear and CCS aslow-carbon supply options

Improvement of transmission anddistribution efficiencies plus maximisationof end-use efficiency


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Proposed Way Forward onWorking Paper

Welcome comments from WorkingGroup until the end of October

ETP2010 now published so these scenarioswill not be changed

IEA will incorporate comments andfinalise paper by end of November

Publish paper by end 2010


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Possible Future Areas forCooperation

Contributions to ETP2012 Better characterisation of Indian energy resources

and power technologies

Improved regional modelling of the futurecontribution from different power sector options

Review of ETP2012 assumptions and drafts

Contributions to Roadmaps and PolicyAnalysis

Participation in international roadmap meetingsand review of drafts

Developing technology roadmaps for the Indiancontext, e.g. nuclear, PV, CSP, smart grids

Contribution to work on best practice policies andmeasures to achieve a low-carbon transition for

the power sector


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Thank You!

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