importance of fundamental research for the future of...

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 1

ARTS-DS

Importance of Fundamental Research

for the Future of Aerospace Industry

in the 21st Century

Prof. Dr. Dieter Schmitt Aeronautical Consultant

16.02.2016


ARTS-DS

Introduction

Aeronautical Industry and Research Centers in Europe

Civil Aircraft market

Airbus - 4 phases of development

The research supply chain

The engineer supply chain

The future role of Universities in Aeronautics

Conclusions

Content


ARTS-DS 1. The Product „Aircraft“

Industry:

Research Centers: - Flight Physics

- Materials

- Light Weight Structures

- Systems (Fuel, cabin, Electrics, ..

- Aircraft + System Architecture

- Air transport system (ATM, Airport,..)

- Environmental Impact (Noise. Emissions .. )

Universities:


ARTS-DS

a

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Civil transport aircraft

Helicopters, Business jets etc

airframe

integrator

en

gin

e

aero

str

uctu

re

Suppliers

syste

ms

Research infrastructure

Flight Physics

Structures

Systems

Etc..

Research

Centers

Universities

Labs

Airframe manufacturers network in R&T Development of Technologies in Aviation

Industry and Supply chain Research Centers


ARTS-DS 2. Air Transport Market

- The air transport market will double over

the next 16 years!

- 33 000 aircraft to be produced in the next 20

years

- Boeing and Airbus have a backlog of ~8000 A/C

Airbus

Boeing

- Airbus and Boeing have reduced their product folio

- to just 4 product-families

- Airbus: A320, A330, A350, A380

- Boeing: B737, B787, B777, B747

- Strong competition exists between:

- B727 vs. A320 new engines

- B787 vs. A350 latest aircraft designs

- B747 vs. A380

- B777 and A330 are targeting different market

segments, but new engine options are envisaged!

- No new aircraft developments are visible!

- Competition will be on aircraft production cost!


ARTS-DS

October 2006 AIRTEC 2006

Production

Aircraft Design Cycle 25 years 20-40 years ~5 ~5

EIS

Research

End of production line

Aeronautics has a long term cycle

Development Development

In-service / operation

Launch


ARTS-DS European Aircraft Industry 1

Phase 1 : 1965 - 1985 - Creation of Airbus

A lot of national attempts to build Commercial Aircraft, but mainly for the home

market (Trident, BAC1-11; Mercure; Caravelle; VFW614);

No commercial success!!

A lot of trials to identify bi-lateral or trilateral agreements on governmental and

on industry side, ending up in

Concorde AS, BAe

Airbus AS, DA, HSA

Airbus consortium agreement signed

Airbus Directors have all been engineers!

R. Beteille, J. Roeder, F. Kracht, B. Ziegler

This management team was building on „innovative technologies“ like:

- Aircraft family concept

- 2-man Glass cockpit

- new materials (CFRP fin)

- transonic wing design etc.


ARTS-DS

Kapitel 5 - Hersteller Lufttransportsysteme - Prof. Dr.-Ing.

Volker Gollnick

8

Saab

Selenia

Aeritalia

EFIM (incl. Augusta)

Aermacchi

Matra

Aerospatiale

MBB

Dornier

MTU

TST

Fokker

CASA

SIA Marchetti

Bristol

Hunting

De Havilland

Hawker Siddeley

Dassault

DASA

Aerospatiale Matra

Alenia

EADS / Airbus

Saab

British Aerospace

Finmeccanica

Dassault

CASA

MTU

Marconi Electronic Systems

BAE Systems

Aircraft Manufacturers Fusions in Europe (Status 2014)

Airbus Group


ARTS-DS

• Phase 2: (1985 – 2000) Airbus enters market!

• After the difficult start of Airbus A300, A310 and A300-600, Airbus

has decided to further develop his Airbus family concept by:

– A320 (EIS 1988) 150seater with a new cockpit and system concept

– A330/A340 (EIS 1992/93) common wing concept

– Beluga for Airbus internal transport aircraft, replacing Super-Guppy

– A340-500/600 as very long range aircraft

• Several international cooperations are investigated on:

– VLCT - Very large Commercial aircraft

– SCT Supersonic commercial Transport (Concorde Successor!)

leading finally to develop the

• A3XX concept

• Airbus building on Technology as main driver to further increase

market share !

Airbus the Innovator!

European Aircraft Industry 2


ARTS-DS Family Concept for Airbus

Source: Airbus 4000 6000 8000

100

200

300

400

700

Seats

Range [nm]


ARTS-DS Technology as driver for success

A300B2 A310-200 A320-200 A330-300

A340-300 A340-600 A380

A310

CFRP vertical fin

2 man-cockpit

A300

twin-engine,

twin-aisle a/c

A320

Sidestick controller

Second generation

digital

auto flight system

A380

CFRP centre

wing box

Variable

Frequency

generator

A330/A340

All new advanced

technology wing

CFRP bulkhead

1970 1980 1990 2000


ARTS-DS

• Research in Phase 2 (1985 – 2000)

• The Airbus partners (AS; BAe, DASA) were responsible and also in

some competition with respect to new technologies

– national research programmes to support the national industry partners!

– EC started with BRITE/EURAM and FP5 and FP6 to support the Aeronautical

Research basis

• GATT Agreement 1992 to define financial support for research and

development in Aerospace

• Airbus Industrie GIE started to have a small budget for research

– there was a need to show to the market (airlines) that Airbus has a future and

has a concept for future aircraft improvements and new technologies features

– Joint Technology Working groups with partners were established

– Cooperations and exchange with research establishments and Universities

started (but still on a low level, Airbus partners were the final partners

– Airbus GIE was proposing and starting flight tests with

• Laminar fin

• Riblets


ARTS-DS

• Airbus phase 3: (2000 – 2008)

• Integration to a „single company“

• Airbus Industries GIE Airbus SAS

• Launch of A380

• internal harmonization of methods and tools

• reduction of duplication in engineering and in research

• concentration in production units

• concentration of engineering centers

• Spezialization of production sites

• Topmanagers are no longer engineers but financial officers and/or product

managers

• With A380 development a complete product portfolio is created

• „Shareholder value“ becomes an important „management driver“



ARTS-DS

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Cash Flow

CF+ Interest

Develop Cost

Expenses

Income

BEP Break-Even Point

Years

Income

Expenses

Cash [$]

EIS Entry into Service

Go Ahead


ARTS-DS

• Research phase 3: (2000 – 2008)

• ACARE Vision 2020 was prepared and issued (SRA1 and SRA2 followed)

• FP6, FP7 had an increasing part on Aeronautical research

• EU projects (level 1 and 2) were well received by the aeronautical industry

in Europe

• EASN was created to strengthen their cooperation and chances in

research!

• EREA was created to better align EU research activities

• However:

• In addition to the actual EU FP6/7 programme the industry needs financial

help to conduct their necessary readiness programmes (proof of concept)

which are very costly. A multinational European financing concept has to

be developed to give the European Airframe industry a similar financial

support as their competitors receive from NASA / USA government!

• Ideas for CLEAN SKY started and the JTI „Clean Sky“ was created as PPP


ARTS-DS

• Phase 4: (2008 – 2020) Production • Thales, Safran, Liebherr, Rolls-Royce are strong European

players

• EADS is changing to Airbus Group

• Airbus Commercial is the dominant division within Airbus group

• With A380 EIS Airbus has create a complete product portfolio!

• The product portfolio from Airbus and Boeing are matching!

• The risk of developing new aircraft (A3xx) is postponed!

No new aircraft development expected for the next 15-20 Years!

• The new products are named - „neo (new engine option)“

• Main research axis is „reduction of unit cost“

• Airbus concentrates of engineering centers and production plants

• Managers are no longer engineers but financial officers and product-

managers

• „Shareholder value“ is the important management driver



ARTS-DS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 5000 10000

A 350A 330

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 5000 10000

B 787

B 777

B 747

B 737

Airbus Boeing

A 380

A 320

Seats Seats

Range (nm) Range (nm)


ARTS-DS

• Research phase 4: (From 2008 – 2020)

• JTI‘s SESAR and CLEAN SKY started!

• The industry is very happy and uses this instrument successfully!

CLEAN SKY 1 is finishing and CS2 has started

Research Centers and Universities:

• CLEAN Sky is offering chances for RE and Universities but with very

specific applications.

• The Horizon 2020 research funding for aeronautics is strongly reduced

• Funding instruments which offer Level 1 and even Level 0 projects for

aeronautical tasks are difficult to obtain, partly on a national level!

• Universities need in addition to the education also research subjects with

items, which allow to develop innovative aircraft design concepts.

• Classical subjects as outlined in „Out of the Box“ are more difficult to get

financed.


ARTS-DS

• Universities have in the engineering education a double

role:

1. Teachers: Developing excellent young engineers for the

industry:

- Providing attractive lectures and skills for students!

- Professors should have a good industrial background!

2. Researchers: Doing research in close link with industry‘ needs

- Master thesis and PhD thesis for students in close

cooperation with the industry.

- Common research activities with industry

Aeronautics is fascinating for young engineering students!

– The subject requires still a multidisciplinary approach and there

are still a lot of innovations expected for the future!

– Developing own innovative aircraft concepts is a fascinating task.

Available innovative engines and systems allow to build UAVs for

several applications and the aircrtaft can be flight-tested directly!

Role of Universities


ARTS-DS

• The technology items for industry are changing

– Today all efforts are more focussed toeduce production cost and

production time

– The industry is less interested by research on new aircraft

concepts and basic flight physics and materials research!

• The focus in European Research is mainly directed to industry

needs!

• However the Universities and partly also RCs have a need for basic

longterm concepts to motivate young engineers and scientific

researchers!

• Developing the next generation of excellent engineers for the

European Aeronautical Industry is the main task for

Universities, but this requires also basic Research Activities!

Conclusion


ARTS-DS Europe‘s Future ?

Thank you

for your attention!


ARTS-DS

Back - UP


ARTS-DS Typical life cycle of a civil program

Years 5 3 2 5 30 - 40 20

Pro

du

ct

su

pp

ort

Product Support

Pro

-

du

cti

on

Series Production Spares Production

Basic Concept

related

Project

related Res

ea

rch

D

eve

lop

me

nt

Feasibility

phase

Concept

phase

Defi-

nition

phase

Development

phase

Product improvement

Basic version

Product improvement

(Stretch, MTOW)

Modifications

Retire-

ment Delivery last

A/C in series

Delivery first

A/C in series Go Ahead


ARTS-DS

Aircraft

Integrator

Integration

Compressors

Combustion Cham.

Turbines

Power Generation

Casing structure

FADEC

etc.

Avionics

Power syst.

Cabin syst.

Flight control

High Lift syst.

Fuel system

APU

etc .

Wing

Fuselage

Tailplanes

Pylons

Undercarriage

Movables

Cockpit

Structure Systems Propulsion System

OEM (Overall Equipment

Manufacturer)

1st level

Supplier


ARTS-DS Time – Cost – Quality

· keep market share

· increase market share

· early breakeven

· confidence of market forecast

· availability of resources

Time

to

Market

at the right time in the market

Quality

to

Market

meet the customer’s requirements

Cost

to

Market

build a profitable product

· performance

· reliability

· profitability

· delivery time

· service

· market price

· DOC

· value

· competition

Magic Triangle

An optimum of all three areas cannot be achieved!


ARTS-DS Design Ambiguity

„The design engineer is forced from the airlines to provide optimum performance

guaranties, which are ambitious and include a certain risk

and at the same time, his mangement forces him to avoid any risks“


ARTS-DS Design Goals (1)

Target is an aircraft design concept, which

fulfils the set objectives/market requirements (payload, range, performance etc.)

provides an advantage in DOC of „x“ percent relative to the competition,

completes the own product family concept.

Respecting framework conditions like:

existing propulsion systems,

Take-off and landing requirements/performances,

further range and payload development capabilities,

maximum commonality to the other family members.


ARTS-DS Design Goals (2)

Flying higher and therefore faster

Minimizing aircraft structural weight

maximizing specific range (flight distance per fuel unit)

Using aerodynamically „clean“ geometries

(ex.: swept wings for speeds beyond Mach 0,65)

Identifying optimum value for wing loading

Push wing aspect ratio to maximum/optimal value

Select light and reliable systems

These considerations are strongly interdependent

and are often difficult to optimize.

Ex.: higher aspect ratio higher wing weight

(at same wing surface!)

Design is an Art to search for an optimum Compromise!


ARTS-DS Aviation Industry

Marketing

Production

Procurement

Finance

Top

Management

Programmes Engineering

Strategy

Airframer

Engines

Supply Chain


ARTS-DS Europe‘s Geography


ARTS-DS 3. Political competition: US vs. Europe

- The civil aircraft industry is very attractive

for each developed country!!

- High level jobs in the country,

- a very attractive supply chain

-

- A new development program for an aircraft

manufacturer is very risky

- The development cost are in the order of

10 bl $; The RoI is only after 12-15 years!)

- No bank is ready to finance such a risky

development;.

- Cross fertilization from military programs is

used in the US

- In Europe, the national agencies are

providing launch aids to normal financial

conditions.

WTO: World Trade Organization

Boeing and Airbus are constantly

complaining about unfair governmental

support (Military programs in US –

Launch aids in Europe)

GATT Agreement

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17

BEP

Precompetitive Research is accepted !!

importance of fundamental research for the future of...

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